Joe Gavazzi
San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -6
The 49ers fly three time zones east for this 10 AM body time kick on short rest following their MNF straight up home dog victory. They’ll be visiting the Pittsburgh Steeler team who has had 10 days of rest to prepare following their 28-21 week 1 loss at New England. Maybe we should call it the situational play of the year in the NFL. In any event, this is the basis for the blowouts you see each week in the NFL. On Monday, I authored an analysis on the Vikings/49ers game, which offered the advice that line moves of 6 points rarely work in the NFL. The line maker was steadfast in opening the 49ers at -3-. Including the hook, it was an unbelievable enticement for the betting public to jump on a Minnesota team who had finished strong last season, had RB Peterson returning, and had just finished the preseason at 4-1 SU ATS. The public took the bait all the way to game time, when the Vikings closed at -2-. Gone from the 49ers was long time HC Harbaugh replaced by new HC Tomsula, a guy who never had a head coaching job in the NFL in his life. Then there was the Aldon Smith fiasco, which surely ruined team unity. To top it off, the 49ers had the biggest player turnover in the NFL. Final score: San Francisco 20, Minnesota 3. It was every bit as bad as the final, as the Niners totally dominated the line of scrimmage, running the ball 39 times to 17 for a 230-71 yardage edge. That must surely have been a very satisfying win for the 49ers franchise. Now they must fly three time zones east on short rest to meet a well-rested and hungry Pittsburgh team who has had 10 days to stew over their opening day 28-21 loss at New England. Little was expected of the Steelers in their Thursday night opener at New England. The media made a point of telling everybody that Brady would be pumped after he was cleared of any wrong doing. In addition, the Steelers were fielding a defense that can kindly be referred to as rebuilding. And they were without longtime DC LeBeau. On the offensive side, starting center Pouncey was out till game 12, and RB Bell and WR Bryant were serving early season suspensions. The 28-21 final favoring New England was in no way representative of how the game was played. The Steelers outrushed the Patriots 134-80 (welcome back Deangelo Williams), and out passed the Patriots 330-281, negating 19 consecutive Brady completions. The Steelers actually could have won the game late. The above situational scenario is all you need to know in a game where all the intangible edges point the Steelers’ way. Like I said, this has the makings of an NFL CRUSHER.
St. Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins +3.5
The St Louis Rams travel east to visit the Washington Redskins in this 1 PM eastern kick. Few will be looking to back the Redskins, following their expected 17-10 home loss to Miami last week. Many will be on the St Louis bandwagon after they blew a double digit lead then roared back for a 34-31 OT victory vs the Seattle Seahawks team who had appeared in consecutive Super Bowls. The irony of this selection is that it was these very St Louis Rams who were our “LONE RANGER GAME OF THE WEEK” last week, just one of our many winners on a Sunday and Monday card that saw us go 13-2 ATS. A review of last week’s stats in the Seattle/St Louis game saw that the St Louis victory may have been a bit undeserved. Seattle ran the ball 32 times (an over 80% chance to beat the point spread), and had a 124-76 overland edge (a 75% chance to beat the point spread), combined with a +2 net TO margin, another near 80% chance to beat the point spread. It was a bit mystifying that the Seahawks failed to propel their fourth quarter momentum into an OT victory. Now, the Rams are thrust into the role of being a road favorite following a game 1 straight up home dog victory. It rarely happens, and hardly ever works to the benefit of the game 2 road chalk. Considering that St Louis has lost 9 consecutive road games following matchups with Seattle, there is little precedent for them to win today. Little was expected from Washington last week. The RG III scandal and ensuing concussions thrust QB Cousins into the starting role behind an iffy OL. This is the same Cousins who is just 2-8 SU as a starter in the NFL. When the Skins bolted to a 10-0 early lead, contrary players across the nation felt redemption. Though the Dolphins rallied for a 17-10 victory, it was undeserved considering the Skins’ dominance at the point of attack. The Skins ran 37 times to the Dolphins’ 18, a situation that covers 85% of the time, and 8 of 9 times opening week. The yardage edge was 161-74 overland, and 349-256 overall. In other words, these Redskins ain’t as bad as you think. Could be time for a turnaround from their 6-19 ATS recent run, but only you, me, and the LONE RANGER will be there. Just like we were last week with St Louis+ over Seattle.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the New Orleans Saints for this 1 PM eastern time kick on Sunday. This division rivalry was contested twice last year, with the Saints winning 37-31 on this field, then backing it up with a 23-20 win in the final game of the regular season at Tampa Bay. That makes two victories, but by a combined 9 points, less than today’s point spread. A savvy sports bettor from the New Orleans area offered a diatribe on why “New Orleans under 9“ was a solid wager for regular season victories. His argument was solid, citing both an offense and defense which are in decline. In short, the New Orleans’ slide from 12-6 SU in 2013 to 7-9 SU in 2014 may be more of a trend than a BUY sign for the Saints on a bounce back season. The week 1 31-19 loss at Arizona may certainly have been a harbinger of that prediction, for the Cardinals dominated the point of attack, outrushing the Saints 120-54, with New Orleans relying almost completely on their passing game. They ran it only 20 times (1 of 9 teams to run the ball 22 or less times in week 1), resulting in a 1-8 ATS record. Meanwhile, the 427 total yards the Saints allowed to the Cardinals certainly implies that last year’s declining defense may not have been fixed. This week, the world is looking for the bounce against what many consider to be a pathetic Tampa Bay team, and there is precedence for that thinking. The Saints are 25-13 ATS following a loss, they have won the last four in this series at this site by an average of 21 PPG, and after going 20-0 SU, 18-2 ATS on their strong home field, the Saints enter 2015 on an 0-5 SU ATS home slide. Time for the bounce…or is it? There is good reason why there are few Buc backers this week. Tampa Bay has lost 11 consecutive road games. Now, first round draft pick QB Winston is making his first road start. It certainly did not help that the first one was at home. In a pathetic offensive performance, Tampa Bay was outrushed 124-92 by last year’s 2-14 SU Titans. Winston threw two critical picks, and the offense gained just 273 total yards. All good reasons why this is a contrary side, and why we should all be on board with the Tampa Bay Bucs as the BIG DOG OF THE WEEK.
Don Anthony
St Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins
Play: St. Louis Rams -3
I understand that this is a terrible spot for the Rams after their upset win against the Seahawks last week. But let me tell you this...the Washington Redskins are AWFUL. I will say that I am (used) to be a Redskins fan and still follow this team closely. Until these guys get rid of RGIII, this team will continue to struggle. He's too much of a distraction and the word around town is that everyone wants him gone except the worst owner in the league, Dan Snyder. There is a team that the Redskins can just never beat, and that's the St. Louis Rams. It seems like the Redskins do whatever they can to lose when they play this team. It's actually pretty funny. The Rams have covered 6 of their last 7 meetings and 4 of their last 5 games in Washington. I'll finish by saying this. If the Rams lost last week, this would've been a much bigger play as I believe this game would've been lined closer to -1. Look for the Redskins to continue to be a joke on Sunday.
Bill Biles
NY Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts Indianapolis Colts
Play: Indianapolis Colts -7
Andrew Luck simply does not lose back to back games. He has a great record coming off of a loss and the Jets will be without number 2 corner Cromartie. The Colts will play better on both sides of the ball in this one and they will have a huge boost from the home crowd in the home opener on MNF. Colts get it done and go to 1-1.
Bryan Leonard
Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Cleveland Browns +1½
What an overreaction. Just two weeks ago these two squads were at 6 wins for NFL season win action. That would make Cleveland a 3 point favorite here. Throw in the fact that the Browns face the tougher schedule and you can see Cleveland at -3 1/2. But after one week of action the line has moved a whopping five points towards the Titans. The change at QB for the Browns is virtually nothing as McCown led the Bucs last year to two victories.
Mariotta was outstanding last week but we all know backing rookie quarterbacks is the quickest way to the poor house. Tennessee looked great last week and the Browns were terrible. But our two plays last week were on the Jets and on Tennessee. We think NY is underrated and Tampa overrated. So while we expected what happened a week ago we didn't make drastic changes to our power ratings.
I've been handicapping football for over 3 decades and I've seen enough of this overreaction to know where to make money. We saw it with the Vikings/49ers game on Monday night. We take advantage of it here.
Ray Monohan
San Diego Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals -3
This is a playoff rematch and the Bengals will have revenge on their mind. Both teams won last week as favourites and I think there is more separating them than the fact that Cincinnati gets this game at home. Look for the Bengals to have success running and stopping the run. That last bit will enable them to pressure Philip Rivers and create some game changing plays. I expect the Bengals to win by at least a touchdown and possibly 10 or more. Their offense is about as balanced as can be. Too much for San Diego.
Jimmy Boyd
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings
I believe we are getting some great value here with the Minnesota Vikings laying less than a field goal (-2.5) at home against the Detroit Lions. I believe this is a major overreaction to what took place on Monday Night Football, with Minnesota getting embarrassed 20-3 by the San Francisco 49ers. While Detroit also lost their opener, they were at least competitive in a 28-33 defeat at San Diego and at one point led 21-3.
The public was all over Minnesota in their game and have quickly turned their backs on the Vikings, as I'm showing close to 63% of the early action coming in on the Lions. I believe the public looks down on Minnesota's loss more because of how bad the 49ers were suppose to be. While I was one of those that didn't think San Francisco would be any good, that's clearly a much better team than expected.
I still think Minnesota is one of the up and coming teams in 2015 and will be a strong team to back on their home field, especially if they keep getting undervalued like we see here. Keep in mind that the Vikings won 4 of their last 5 at home in 2014, with the only loss being a 21-24 defeat to Green Bay. Detroit's a quality team, but I don't think that defense will be near as good without Suh. There's also not a great road team. They were 4-4 on the road compared to 7-1 at home last year.
Speaking of the Lions defense, they allowed Philip Rivers to complete 35 of 42 attempts for 404 yards and 2 touchdowns, while also giving up 95 yards on the ground. I look for Teddy Bridgewater to bounce back in a big way against this soft secondary, while also getting Adrian Peterson more involved (only 10 carries in Week 1).
Clearly the weakness of the Vikings stop unit is their run defense, which doesn't come as a big surprise. Last year the Vikings ranked 25th against the run (121.4 ypg) and 7th against the pass (223.2 ypg). Detroit has a pass-happy offense to say the least. They went up against a poor San Diego run defense last week (ranked 26th vs run in 2014) and only attempted 16 carries. The Lions are going to play right into the strength of the Vikings.
I know the Vikings have 1 less day of rest/preparation due to playing on Monday Night Football, but that's not a concern for me. Minnesota is very familiar with what the Lions are going to try and do both offensively and defensively. I also don't think losing a day is as big early in the year, as players are fresh and have not experienced the grind of a season.
I would argue the situation is harder on Detroit with having to play back-to-back road games. Either way the Lions have a history of not playing up to expectations on the road. With the loss to the Chargers, they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. They also haven't been good off high-scoring games. The Lions are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after allowing 30 or more points and 14-33 ATS in their last 51 road games after playing in a game with 50 or more combined points. Give me the home team laying less than a field goal in this NFC North showdown.
Stephen Nover
St Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins +3½
It certainly was an impressive home win for the Rams last Sunday when they beat their hated division rivals the Seahawks. Now, though, the Rams are traveling in a letdown spot to face the Redskins, who will be desperate to avoid an 0-2 home start.
So the situation sets up well for Washington. But are the Redskins good enough to back? Let me put it this way: The Rams are not good enough to back laying on the road in this spot. St. Louis hasn't been this high of a road favorite since 2010. It's not justified.
The Rams have a great pass rushing line. However, the Redskins are now a ground-and-pound team. Washington outgained Miami, 349-256. and controlled the clock, 37:54-22:06 in its seven-point defeat to the Dolphins last Sunday.
This is going to be a conservative, field position type of matchup where a field goal looms large. The Rams aren't as good as the Dolphins. They have an inexperienced offensive line - half of their offensive linemen are rookies - and their two best running backs, Tre Mason and Todd Gurley, are banged-up. Gurley isn't expected to play. Nick Foles isn't that much better than Kirk Cousins.
Even minus DeSean Jackson, the Redskins hold a receiving edge with Pierre Garcon and tight end Jordan Reed, who is expected to play. I also would take Alfred Morris over any of St. Louis' running backs.
Dennis Macklin
San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: San Francisco 49ers
We don't like the Steelers at all and despite being at home, will face a much tougher defense here in the 49ers. Not the best spot for San Fran with the short week and travel but they can run the football and play defense and that always travels well. The Thursday night loser (Pitt) is 3-6-1 ATS in Week II while the 49ers are 6-2 ATS in their road openers and also 6-2 ATS in their L8 as a non-division road dog.
Brandon Lee
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills +2
Not surprised to see the Patriots favored on the road, as this team is going to be overvalued early off that Super Bowl win. I was as impressed with the Bills in Week 1 as any team in the league. Their defense made Andrew Luck look like a below-average quarterback and that's not easy to do. Luck isn't the first elite quarterback to struggle against this Bills defense, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers both looked bad against this unit late last year. With a renewed homefield advantage and Rex Ryan's history of his defenses giving Tom Brady trouble, I think the Bills are primed for a win here. Buffalo's offense will be able to score against a very overrated New England defense, which was fortunate to only allow 21-points to the Steelers in Week 1 (Pittsburgh had 464 yards of total offense, missed 2 field goals, had to settle for 2 more and only punted twice). Give me the Bills +2!
Joseph D'Amico
St Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins
Play: St Louis Rams -3
St. Louis rallied for a 34-31 OT win over Seattle in Week 1. Part of the reason for their success is because of the 2012 blockbuster trade with Washington that allowed the Redskins to move up and select RGIII, who will be on the bench this contest. Washington struggled to find the endzone in their 17-10 opening game loss to Miami. Against a very potent front-7 of the Rams, things will get worse for the 'Skins. As long as QB, Nick Foles doesn't fumble (2 LW) he will hook up with his bevy of playmaking receivers. The Rams are 6-1 ATS their L7 meetings with the Redskins while the Redskins are 1-7 ATS their L8 at home.
Heath Mac
Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Green Bay Packers -3
The Seahawks are coming off an upset loss to the Rams in week 1 action and although we expect them to come out strong, the Packers are ranked by many (including me) as the best team in the NFL. With Rodgers steering the ship and a strong ground game behind Eddie Lacy, we can't leave this few points on the table. The Seahawks are a different team on the road and are definitely beatable.
Sam Martin
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: New England Patriots +1
Buffalo Bills looked strong in their upset win against the Colts last week, and the overreaction to that win has Buffalo as a virtual pick 'em spot this week against AFC East rival New England. We'll back the Patriots here with great line value noting they have beaten Buffalo in six of the last seven meetings between these two teams, and with all the trash talk coming from the home side we believe New England will answer that talk with their play on the field.
Patriots beat Pittsburgh last Thursday so they have a few extra days of rest to prepare for this game. They also get starting RB LeGarrette Blount back after serving a one-game suspension, so Brady will have all of his weapons available. Colts seemed surprised by the number of blitzes Buffalo threw at them last week, but Brady won't be surprised by that blitzing tendency and they'll have their game plan ready. Brady has no problem playing the short, quick passing game which is exactly how to counter a blitz-heavy defense. New England has been the king of this division for years and prove they're still on top with a win this Sunday.
Art Aronson
Yankees vs. Mets
Play: Under 7
The visitors hand the ball to CC Sabathia (4-9, 4.93 ERA) who is coming off a great outing vs. the Rays on Monday, going 6 2/3's scoreless innings, giving up three hits with two walks while striking out six. While he's 0-1 over his last six starts, the hard-throwing southpaw owns a highly respectable 2.76 ERA in that span. The home side counters with Matt Harvey (12-7, 2.88 ERA) who has not thrown since September 8th when he was roughed up by the Nationals, but who has to be feeling pretty confident about a bounce back today as he's 8-2 with a tiny 2.47 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. With these two competent starters going head-to-head in the finale of the Subway series, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.
Michael Alexander
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: New England Patriots +1
Brady just goes on & on. Four touchdowns passes versus Pittsburgh, marking his 23rd game with at least 4 touchdown passes. He was 25-of-32 for 285 yards with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. At one point he had 19 straight completions, to set a franchise record. Last year they took the Bills, 37-20, here. This is the most anticipated game in Buffalo in a long time with Rex Ryan beating the drum but Tom Brady is used to hearing Ryan talk in the week leading up to games and takes the jabs in stride. The Patriots have a way of winning games when others count them out. As much as things change, some things stay the same....Patriots!
Teddy Covers
Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Tennessee Titans -1
There are three key factors in play for me here. First, the preseason power rating numbers that the markets had for Tennessee were flat out wrong, and we haven’t yet seen an appropriate correction. The Titans haven’t been a great team in recent years, but they’ve never been a disaster either, until last year. Tennessee has been priced like the 2-14 team they were in 2014, but last year was clearly an aberration for a squad that hadn’t won fewer than six games in the previous decade. This team tanked down the stretch in Ken Whisenhunt’s first year, and everything that could go wrong basically did go wrong. But the Titans looked sharp in August, wiping away some of the stink from the 2014 campaign. They looked sharp again in Week 1, a blowout road win at Tampa. And that sets the stage for reason #2.
Last year, the Titans blew out Kansas City at Arrowhead in Week 1, every bit as much of a dominant win as the one they pulled off in Tampa last week. But, as a team, Tennessee did not respond well to success. They came out as flat as a pancake in Week 2, blown out at home by Dallas. Numerous veterans have talked about that loss this week, promising that there will be no repeat this time around. And let’s not forget the meaningful revenge angle here. Before the Titans season turned into an abject disaster last year, they faced these same Browns, at home, in Week 5. Tennessee led that game 28-3. They lost it 29-28; allowing Cleveland to get the single largest comeback win on the road in NFL history. That, too, is a loss that the Titans remember well; one they expect to avenge on Sunday.
Lastly, Cleveland might have been power rated as a 6.5 win team prior to the season, but no serious bookmaker would put up a season win total number higher than 5 for the Browns right now. Johnny Manziel has shown us multiple times already that he’s not a capable starting quarterback in the NFL, coming off another turnover laden performance last week. The Browns top two rushers last week were their two quarterbacks, a team with the weakest skill position talent in the NFL. And when it comes to a home field edge, the Browns certainly don’t have one of the stronger ones. No hesitation fading a Cleveland team that is now 1-16 SU in their last 17 games without Brian Hoyer behind center in a game where the SU win should equate to a pointspread cover.