Marc Lawrence
San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -6
Edges - Steelers: 5-1 ATS home openers versus foe off SU loss; and 7-2 ATS home openers versus non-division opponents. 49ers; 2-8 ATS as a dog after playing on Monday night. With Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger 4-0 SUATS at home in his NFL career versus NFC west opponents, we recommend a 1* play on Pittsburgh.
Chase Diamond
St Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins +3½
This game features the 1-0 Rams at the 0-1 Redskins. We played big on the Rams last week and won and this week we will be fading them for numerous reasons. Rams are in a big letdown spot this week and the Redskins will be desperate not to lose the first two games at home this season. 82% of the public are riding the Rams this week and this number is not moving. I've spoken to several offshore guys all will be big on the Redskins Sunday.
Sean Higgs
Baltimore Ravens vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Oakland Raiders +7
I see 6.5 and 7 -115, so I'll bite for the full TD. Last time we saw these two teams, Raiders were being humiliated at home and the Ravens were in a brutal, blow by blow, dog eat dog battle with the Bronco. After that knock out fight, I am sure everyone expects Baltimore to come in and roll Oakland. To be honest, I think we are getting some extra value with the home pups. Ravens loss of Suggs hurts. This defense is good, but not that good. He is a big part of the pressure. Like I said, Oakland was terrible on both sides of the ball. Public has short memories. Won't be shocked to see the Raiders having a shot to win this thing out-right if things break well for us.
AC Dinero
San Diego Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: San Diego Chargers +3.5
he Bengals won easily at Oakland. We had the Raiders but they laid an egg. The Bengals are a solid team, but how long will they stay behind QB Dalton if they keep losing big games? QB Philip Rivers is spectacular as a dog. We aren't sold on their front 7, but like them in this spot
Big Al
Seattle vs. Green Bay
Play: Green Bay
Since Aaron Rodgers became the starter in the 2008 season, the Packers have been a big money-maker. Green Bay has gone 77-38 straight-up and 68-44-3 ATS in his 115 starts. And at home, the Packers have done their best work, with a 44-11 SU and 34-18 ATS mark with Rodgers as their starter, including 5-1-1 ATS in home openers. Last season, Rodgers had a 28-0 Touchdown to interception ratio at home! With this as a backdrop, it’s awfully hard to make a case for Seattle as a road underdog. And especially given that Green Bay will be playing with Playoff revenge. Indeed, last year’s loss in the NFC Championship Game was every bit as hard for the Packers, as was Seattle’s loss in the Super Bowl to New England. The Packers were up 19-7 in the fourth quarter, but collapsed when Brandon Bostick couldn’t secure an onside kick, and lost in overtime, 28-22. So, for eight months, the Packers have had to answer questions about that devastating loss, so there’s nothing more that they want than to redeem themselves with a win against Seattle. And teams playing with revenge from a Playoff defeat are an awesome 15-4 ATS at home vs. teams that have a losing record.
Mr Vegas
Dallas at Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia
Dallas is flying high emotionally after a wild comeback win at home over the Giants. But let's face it, they should have lost the game if Eli Manning knew how much time was left or what the score was in the final two minutes. The Dallas defense struggled and the team lost star RB DeMarco Murray in the offseason and now loses WR Dez Bryant. They face a fast-paced Eagles team that is hard to prepare for and defense. It's the home opener for Philadelphia, after nearly pulling off a comeback at Atlanta. This offense worse down the Falcons in the second half and will do the same against Dallas here. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Jeff Saad
Miami at Jacksonville
Play: Under
Miami will face a Jaguars team that finished 3-13 last season with no offense and a bad offensive line. The O-line will struggle against the Dolphins' pass rush, along with new run-stuffer Suh. Miami is 37-17 under the total on the road, plus 22-10-1 under versus the AFC. Jacksonville is on a 4-1 run under the total, 6-2 under at home. QB Blake Bortles was intercepted twice in a 20-9 loss to Carolina on Sunday and also picked off on two occasions - with both being returned for touchdowns - in a 27-13 setback to the Dolphins on Oct. 26. When these teams meet the under is 5-0 and this shapes up as a battle of field goals.
River City Sharps
New York Giants -2.5
Both the Atlanta Falcons and the New York Giants both played thrillers in their season openers, but experienced very different results. The Falcons were able to hold off a furious Eagles rally to take a 26-24 win over the Eagles, while the Giants seemingly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory as they dropped a 27-26 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. As a lot of our long-time clients and subscribers know, we are a huge proponent of the theory of “buy when they are selling, sell when they are buying” The Falcons are going to be much improved, but we don’t think Falcons fans need to be making Super Bowl plans yet. Conversely, the Giants aren’t nearly as bad as the local media and fans want to make them sound. So here on Sunday, we are looking at the Giants as a 2.5-point favorite against a team that most of “Joe Public” believes is better than they are. While we understand the Falcons are under a new regime with Dan Quinn, a couple of trends here to consider…The Falcons are a dreadful 4-13 ATS off an upset as a home dog going back to 1992 and while the Giants did lose last week to Dallas, one bright spot was their ability to keep the Dallas receivers from hurting them with the big play. That will come in handy this week as they need to deal with both Julio Jones and Roddy White. We believe this is a trap line as it opened at Giants -3 and now sits universally at -2.5. Time for us to jump in as we believe this number gets back to a FG Sunday morning. We will side with Manning and the home team in this spot. The Sharps say…
DAVE COKIN
BUCCANEERS VS BROWNS
PLAY: BROWNS +2
Johnny Football gets the call at QB for Cleveland today as the Browns play host to the Titans and rookie sensation Marcus Mariota. The Titans have been commanding great attention from bettors all week and this number has moved substantially from the opener. I’m taking what will most certainly be the minority opinion in this game.
Mariota was brilliant last week as Tennessee obliterated Tampa Bay, and I was very pleased with that result. The Browns got smoked by the Jets and Johnny Manziel was pretty bad in the second half of the eventual romp.
One of the first “rules” I learned many (and I do mean many) years ago when I was on the other side of the counter has never changed. Simply stated, it’s important to forget the last thing you saw. Maybe not literally, but close enough. The masses tend to put far too much weight on the most recent result, and short term memory is not an asset when it comes to sports betting.
So here we have a classic example of that thought process. The Titans looked mighty study in overwhelming the Bucs on the road last Sunday. The Browns, well, they looked like the Browns. As a result, the books have been flooded with Tennessee wagers all week.
I will say that I thought the opening line on this game was a bad one, in that it guaranteed oodles of Titans cash. That’s not really ideal for the books. But from my perspective, this game has gone from one I had no interest in playing to a scrap where I feel I can’t pass it up at the current tag.
I have always liked playing against road favorites that won the prior week as road dogs, and Tennessee falls into that scenario here. I also don’t mind latching onto an underdog off a really bad game, particularly this early in the season where nothing has truly been established.
Of course, as with anything, there’s a caveat here. That would be the aforementioned Manziel, who I absolutely don’t have much faith in. Hopefully, his seemingly inevitable mistakes aren’t too costly. But regardless, there’s big bounce potential on the road team’s side today and now that I’m able to get a couple with the hosts, I’m playing. The Browns plus the available points are the pick.
Matt Fargo
St Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins +4
Week Two is what is called the week of overreactions in the NFL and this year is no different. Here we have two teams off different outcomes and because of that, we are getting exceptional line value. The Redskins blew a chance to pull off the upset last week as penalties and the defense struggled down the stretch. I think they bounce back here however as a second straight home game is always big and they catch St. Louis off a major home upset over the Seahawks. St. Louis tends to play Seattle tough at home the majority of the time so it wasn't a real shocker that it ended up winning the game. This will be a whole different challenge now however as the Rams should suffer a major letdown after that victory and have largely been know for being a much better team at home than on the road. Even with that, the Rams are the third biggest consensus play in the NFL today which shows the public reaction from last week's games. This game features a very simple yet extremely effective situation as we play against teams that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog. This situation is 80-42 ATS (65.6 percent over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Rams are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Scott Spreitzer
Atlanta Falcons vs. NY Giants
Play: NY Giants -2
We had the Falcons on Monday night and cashed when they held on for the win over Philadelphia. But the Eagles were sloppy in the first half, much like we thought they'd be out of the blocks with Sam Bradford making his first regular season start in the Chip Kelly offense. But I didn't like the way the Falcons looked for most of the second half. The offense sputtered for good chunks of the final two quarters and the defense was worn out down the stretch. I suspect the Falcons will struggle in this one when Eli Manning begins using all his weaponry, especially throwing to his RBs. The Falcons struggled with this on Monday night and I do believe it's going to take time for the new coaching staff to resolve the problem. ATL did garner the underdog win, but NFL teams off a win as a home dog are 42-80 ATS the following week. Atlanta is 4-13 ATS in this situation, outscored by an average of 28-17.
Jack Jones
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: Philadelphia Eagles -4½
The Philadelphia Eagles come into this game with plenty of motivation. Not only did they blow a golden opportunity to beat the Falcons last week, they also remember back to last year when their 10-6 record wasn’t good enough to make the playoffs. That’s because the Cowboys won the NFC East at 12-4, and the Eagles were on the outside looking in.
Philadelphia is one of the better teams in the NFL this season. It dominated the preseason, and even though it lost to Atlanta last week, that will only have it even more hungry to avoid falling to 0-2. This is arguably the most explosive offense in the NFL and one that Dallas will have a very hard time containing Sunday afternoon.
Sam Bradford was solid in his debut, throwing for 336 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions, though one of those two picks was not his fault. That game against the Falcons is not the way the Eagles want to play. They want to run the football, but they did not have much of a choice after falling behind 20-3, so they had to become one-dimensional.
That won’t be the case against the Cowboys as I expect the Eagles to lead from start to finish, and for their offense to then become much less predictable. Plus, you know that Chip Kelly is going to want to force-feed DeMarco Murray knowing how inspired Murray is going to be to face his former team. The Cowboys didn't think Murray was worth the money he was asking, and now he'll be out to prove that they were wrong.
Dallas was fortunate to escape with a 27-26 win over New York in the opener thanks to some critical clock management errors late by the Giants. The Cowboys now probably feel a sense of relief and won’t be as motivated as they otherwise would have been if they opened 0-1. But I really was not that impressed with this team against the Giants, and now they are going to be short-handed.
The Cowboys are going to be without arguably their best player in Dez Bryant, who suffered a broken foot against the Giants and will miss 4-6 weeks. He had a franchise-record 16 touchdown receptions last year and is a huge loss for this team. Tony Romo’s weapons are extremely limited without Bryant, and the running game did not look good last week without Murray. They only managed 80 rushing yards on 23 attempts against a New York defense that ranked 31st against the run last year.
Philadelphia is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the past three seasons. Dallas is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games after possessing the ball for 34 or more minutes and recording 24 or more first downs in its last game. This is going to be a high-scoring affair with the Eagles scoring at will. The Cowboys won't be able to match them score for score without Bryant.
Brian Hay
Cowboys vs. Eagles
Play: Under 55
The public will be all in on the over in this contest between Dallas and Philadelphia. The Eagles defense got torched by Atlanta on Monday night so they will be highly motivated to have a much better showing today. The Cowboys defense played poorly against the Giants, and we expect them to bounce-back here. Dallas knows they must keep the Philadelphia offense off the field so they will concentrate on running the ball. The Under is 6-2 for the Eagles when they face a team with a winning record, and the last three of four in this series have gone under the posted total as well.
Bruce Marshall
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Minnesota Vikings
By this stage in his career, Matthew Stafford ought to be able to hold onto 18-point leads on the road (as was the case for Detroit last week at San Diego). But we have to wonder why the Lions' road ills are so acute, as they are now 8-20-1 vs. the line their last 29 away in the regular-season after last week's collapse vs. the Bolts. The Detroit stoppers might be sorely missing the departed Ndamukong Suh. Meanwhile, all systems were go in Minneapolis prior to the Vikes' Monday night stinker in S.F.,. But expect a quick recovery, especially with "AP" back and HC Mike Zimmer having a blast with a young defense featuring six past first-round draftees. Is the torch about to be passed from the Lions to the Vikings as the main challenger to the Packers in the NFC North?
Bryan Leonard
Seattle at Green Bay
Play: Green Bay
Too many off-field distractions for the Seahawks as money matters have this team unfocused. Success brings egos and right now the players are bickering about who has gotten paid and who hasn’t. The offensive line is struggling and the defense hasn’t played nearly as well without Chancellor. Rodgers simply doesn’t throw picks at home so the Seahawks will not have its usually advantages. Playoff revenge is also in store as you know the Packers have had this game circled.