Wunderdog
Tennessee @ Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland +2
There has arguably not been a better start to a QB's career than what Marcus Mariota did in his first game. Mariota became the first NFL QB in modern history to toss 4 TD passes in the first half of his first game, and the Titans, winners of two games all of last year, won 42-14. This from a team that did not top the 28-point mark all of last year. They have now become a public team, with a Hall of Fame QB after just one game, and trust me, Mariota will struggle in some games this season, perhaps many games. The Titans are now over-valued, and after taking down one Heisman winner, the Heisman winning Mariota gets a shot at another in Johnny Manziel. Manziel made an immediate impact last week with a long TD pass, but the Jets defense was simply too much for the Browns, and things should be different here. The Titans are just 16-33-4 ATS in their last 53 games including 1-9-2 ATS vs. a losing team. Remember, the Browns were 6-3 to start last year before injuries crept up on them, and had a pair of 21-point wins vs. both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Go with the Browns in this one.
Frank Jordan
Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants
Play: New York Giants -2.5
Atlanta squeaked out a victory on Monday night as they opened up a 20-3 lead in the first half as Philadelphia was making mistakes left and right, but came charging back in the second half and had the ball late in the game, but at Atlanta was able to intercept a tipped ball to secure the victory. The Giants weren't as lucky as they attempted to run out the clock and left Dallas with too much time as they scored a winning TD and long extra point to send the Giants home losers 27-26. The Giants defense played well up until letting in the winning score and got some turnovers, but needs help from the offense to score and keep drives going to allow them to rest. Look for the defense once again to play well, force turnovers and give the offense extra opportunities which they will capitalize on winning 27-20.
Jim Feist
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Cleveland Browns
Josh McCown is out today for the Browns, that means Johnny Manziel gets the start. Manziel came in relief of McCown last week and looked good to start, but then bogged down as the Browns lost what should have been a win. Manziel gets to workout all week as the top QB, so that should help him here. The Titans put up the most points in week 1, 42 against the hapless Bucs. Marcus Mariota was very good, tossing 4-Td's. Though it did come against the Bucs, so we have to wait and see. I'm not jumping on the Mariota band wagon, mainly because his stats came at the expense of arguably the worst team in the NFL. The Browns defense will give Mariota a tough time this week. Second straight game for the Titans on the road too and that's always tough. In addition, the Titans are just 4-15-3 ATS in their last 22 games against the AFC. I think the Browns are much better than they looked last week and the Titans much worse. I am going to take Cleveland here at home on Sunday to get in the win column.
The Prez
Tampa Bay +10
Of all the Week #2 National Football League events there is few squarer selections that taking the New Orleans Saints and Drew Brees over Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a rookie quarterback.
And while I make plenty of square selections, the facts are indisputable in this NFC affair. New Orleans finished second from the rock bottom in defense a year ago and they showed signs of being even less effective in this 2015 season in their Week #1 loss to Arizona. The New Orleans secondary isn't just soft, they appear slow when in motion, and while much of this has to do with experience, with the player personnel, they are also damaged and playing second and third string talent in a league that is difficult to win games in with top talent. Their safety support, defensively is inadequate and once again the unit will be without injured Keenan Lewis, who is the team's top cornerback.
As talented and as equipped Drew Brees is mentally, his age is offering him, like other future Hall of Famers in this league, less chances to succeed. Brees and his offense are not capable of overcoming the teams defensive liabilities on most given Sunday's.
The Saints quarterback isn't a fresh Brees, he is an aging wind, as he enters the season 36-year-of-age. his offensive skill-set isn't far behind him, either. There is Jimmy Graham, Brees' staple in the red-zone, who has departed to the great Northwest and veteran Marques Colston isn't capble of creating seperation any longer.
Rookie Jameis Winston lost his NFL debut to a good Tennessee squad and while he has a lot to learn, this is one matchup that actually favors him succeeding in, versus the Saints secondary. Expect to see Tampa Bay receiver Mike Evans active despite being 100 percent with a hambone injury. The combination of Vincent Jackson and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins gives the FSU rookie enough weapons to defeat the Saints straight up.
The Buccaneers have covered three of the last four in this series and while they lost both tilts a year ago, they were in a position to win both. The Saints are not only 0-5 against the spread in the bayou, they have lost each of their last five in the SuperDome straight up.
Take the Bucs and the points and don't hesitate getting some of the money-line action on the long-shot dogs from Florida.
Bryan Leonard
Tennessee at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland +1
What an overreaction. Just two weeks ago these two squads were at 6 wins for NFL season win action. That would make Cleveland a 3 point favorite here. Throw in the fact that the Browns face the tougher schedule and you can see Cleveland at -3 1/2. But after one week of action the line has moved a whopping five points towards the Titans. The change at QB for the Browns is virtually nothing as McCown led the Bucs last year to two victories.
Mariotta was outstanding last week but we all know backing rookie quarterbacks is the quickest way to the poor house. Tennessee looked great last week and the Browns were terrible. But our two plays last week were on the Jets and on Tennessee. We think NY is underrated and Tampa overrated. So while we expected what happened a week ago we didn't make drastic changes to our power ratings.
I've been handicapping football for over 3 decades and I've seen enough of this overreaction to know where to make money. We saw it with the Vikings/49ers game on Monday night. We take advantage of it here.
Nelly
Washington Redskins + over St. Louis Rams
No team had a bigger opening win than St. Louis, holding on in a wild finish with Seattle and winning despite Seattle getting two non-offensive touchdowns and holding a 3-1 turnover edge. Backing that performance up on the road will be a challenge. Washington didn't play well on offense last week but the defense looked very respectable and the Redskins soundly out-gained Miami despite losing on a late punt return touchdown. The expectations are low for Washington but this will be a clear letdown spot for a Rams team that has had very poor recent road results. Washington put up 349 yards and had a massive time-of-possession edge going up against a Miami defense that most expect to be one of the top units in the league. Quarterback play will be a concern for the Redskins all season and Kirk Cousins did have two interceptions last week but Alfred Morris had a great day on the ground and Washington still possesses a decent receiving corps even without DeSean Jackson. The Redskins led Miami into the fourth quarter and if not for allowing a punt return touchdown in the fourth Washington would have had a good chance to win. St. Louis is coming off a mammoth home win over the defending NFC champions and the Rams are 5-11 S/U on the road the last two seasons and 19-52-1 S/U on the road since 2006. St. Louis was productive last week but fortunate to survive a 3-1 turnover deficit while also allowing punt and fumble return touchdowns. Those types of mistakes rarely happen in NFL wins and Washington is a similarly priced home underdog this week against a Rams team that few would rate stronger than the Dolphins.
Bob Balfe
Browns +1
Marcus Mariota and the Titans beat a bad football team last week and all of a sudden they are worthy of being favorites on the road? Do people not realize the talent in this Cleveland Secondary? There is never a rookie quarterback that comes into this league and dominates. Mariota had a great game last week because the Bucs Defense couldn’t rattle him. Let’s see how he does in this stadium because as bad as the Browns have been they do have great fans and they get very loud. I really like this Browns Offensive Line. Johnny Football is not my favorite QB in the league, but he has matured a year and I do believe he will give this defense fits with his legs and via the air today. I just don’t think Mariota with 60 minutes of football under his belt should be a favorite today. Take Cleveland.
Bengals -3
The Chargers looked awful to start the game last week to Detroit. If that game was on the road this team would have been done so you really have to pin that on the Lions for letting the Chargers back in the game. San Diego hits the road for the first time today without the entire right side of their offensive line and a young center. This is the type of stuff the general betting public doesn’t look at. The Bengals have a very experience defensive line and will be in the backfield all day. When you lose 40 percent of your offensive line and are on the road it never is a positive thing. The Bengals are flying under the radar and should win this game. Remember that this is a team that has been in the same system with the same players for years now. There is no excuse for Cincinnati and the red rocket Andy Dalton to lose this game. Take the Bengals.
Redskins +3
Less is more today in the NFL. Last week the public won bigtime and the more you play today the more you are going to lose. The entire world knows that the Redskins are a struggling football team. Do people think that Vegas is stupid? Ask yourself why they continue to make these soft lines for the Redskins. Last week the money was all over Miami and they cashed the ticket. Vegas does not like giving money away. St. Louis is a totally different team outside and on the road. This is an offensive line with the least starting experience in the NFL. Kevin Kolb is only in his second game in this system and when he was in Philly struggled in this building. The St. Louis running backs are banged up however the only thing people are looking at is “Hey this team beat Seattle last week”. Washington has a deep and experienced defensive line that should get to the quarterback today. I also think Jeff Fisher is not the type of NFL coach to blow teams out with his style and most of their games are going to be close. Take Washington.
Mariners +105
The Rangers are trying to hold on to win the division with the Astros right on their tail. This should be a great finish. Seattle won’t make the postseason this year and it goes to show you that spending a ton of money for a few good players never works. This team still is playing hard and Hernandez at this price is a must play every single time. If Seattle is going home for the fall they would love to bring a division team home with them. Take the Mariners.
Harry Bondi
St. Louis / Washington Under 41
Washington's offensive philosophy is going to once again this week lean heavily on the running game and try to keep QB Kirk Cousins out of obvious passing downs. That slows the game down significantly. Meanwhile, the Redskins defense looked better than expected last week against Miami and should have success limiting the Rams scoring opportunities. The last four times these two teams have met the average total score has been just 28.3 points per game. We'll call for a similar output today.
Zack Cimini
Seahawks at Packers
Play: Packers
One of the best early season Sunday night games in recent memory will be showcased against the Seahawks and Packers. Each time these two teams play something special has happened. This time should be no different. Aaron Rodgers may be missing Jordy Nelson but that doesn't take away or diminish his overall skill set. Just last week he made James Jones career resurrect from the dead with a huge game against Chicago. Look for the Packers to be focused in all phases of special teams, defense, and offense and win this game by double digits.
Brady Kannon
Washington +4
The Redskins were not all that bad in Week One and basically lost the game because of one special teams error in which they let Miami run a punt back for a TD. This combined with too many penalties led to their demise despite leading the game at halftiime.
Secondly, The Rams are coming off of an absolutely huge win over the division rival Seahawks.. and while we were on The Rams last week to cover the number, the fact that they won outright not only gives us value in today's line, but it was also incredibly improbable. The Rams lost the turnover battle and had two of those result in touchdowns.. to win the game following that is one of the first of its sort in NFL history. While that clouds expectations for this team in Week Two, I also don't at all expect St. Louis to be able to repeat such a performance.
The Rams are just 1-and-12 SU in their road openers and are also 0-and-9 SU on the road after taking on Seattle. In fact, the last five teams to win their home opener as an underdog and then go on the road as a favorite, are 0-4-and-1 ATS in Game Two. There has to be a letdown factor here and that combined with Washington not being clearly as bad as the final score might have indicated, has us on The Redskins plus the points.
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over the San Francisco 49ers. If this line is -7 I want you to buy the 1/2 point down to -6 1/2.
If you've followed me for a while, you know I love to watch over-reaction to teams in the media and with fans, and that's exactly what we get in this situation. The problem is, Vegas didn't play along.
I was hoping for a much lower number in this game, but Vegas wasn't having any of it, listing the Steelers close to a seven-point favorite.
Now this might actually play into our hands because already the public is betting the 49ers almost 4-to-1. And you and I both know the public is wrong 75% of the time... let's hope this is one of those times.
Pittsburgh knows they are in a winnable division, even with the Bengals playing well in the first week vs. Oakland. Baltimore is down, Cleveland is Cleveland, and the Bengals always seem to struggle when playing Pittsburgh.
But an 0-2 start would really hurt Pittsburgh's ego and getting over that hump will be a lot harder than climbing back from a 1-1 start. And if you consider the Steelers have a few extra days to get ready for this game while the 49ers come across country off a short week... the deck is stacked in Pittsburgh's favor.
Take the Steelers as your free play of the day.
5* PITTSBURGH
Brad Wilton
Cincinnati is in full payback mode after losing to San Diego in the inclement weather two season's ago in front of the home fans at Paul Brown Stadium.
Problem is, I don't see the Bengals getting that revenge.
Cincy hasn't been all that reliable in the home favorite role, while Diego stands at 12-6-1 in the road dog role since 2012.
The Chargers should be feeling plenty confident after coming back from 21-3 down against the Lions last week at home, while the Bengals romp at Oakland doesn't do anything for me, as we are talking about the Raiders after all.
At the end of the day, I just don't trust Andy Dalton to deliver the winning points.
Take the Bolts in the road dog role y'all.
2* SAN DIEGO
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the St. Louis Rams over the Washington Redskins, as we have a team on the uptick against a team that is ready to freefall in turmoil.
The Rams looked good in a season-opening overtime victory over two-time NFC champion Seattle, and even though they're traveling for thisone, it doesn't scare me one bit. St. Louis is focused, ready for the season and has the discipline thanks to a solid coaching staff.
Washington seems like it is still in training camp and still trying to figure things out. And though St. Louis may have the same issue with its running back situation, that won't stop the passing game and the drive this team has after last week's win.
Forget about preparing for the Rams' rushing game, the Redskins have to figure out how to stop receiver Tavon Austin, who incidentally is capable of lining up in the backfield as well. Austin had four carries for 17 yards and a touchdown last week the Seahawks.
On the other side of the ball, I take defensive coordinator Gregg Williams against Washington QB Kirk Cousins. Williams' creativity with complex schemes includes a magnetic secondary, where the Rams will disguise what they're doing and create havoc.
Take St. Louis.
4* ST. LOUIS
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Dolphins-Jaguars to hold under in their Sunshine State battle from Ever Bank Field.
Both teams opened last week by playing low-scoring games, as the Dolphins held Under in Washington against the Redskins, while the Jags played Low in their home meeting with Carolina.
Last year when the teams met, Miami prevailed 27-13 in Jacksonville in a game that held Under the posted price of 42 1/2 points. Same Over/Under result back in 2012 in their meeting at Sun Life Stadium, as the 'Fins held the Jags to only a field goal in their 24-3 win.
The Dolphins have held Under in 8 of their last 12 away games, while the Jaguars have been Under in 22 of their last 34 at home.
No other way to play this one but Under the total!
3* MIAMI-JACKSONVILLE UNDER
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Dallas at PHILADELPHIA (-4')
The SMART INTANGIBLE for my play today - Second straight week the Dallas Cowboys meet an NFC East rival, and this week it gets tougher, as they visit division favored Philadelphia, where the Eagles await their heated rival. I like Philly to drill the Cowboys, exposing weaknesses all around.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is DeMarco Murray. The t-shirt we've seen all week, the one that says GATA is a phrase that takes him back to Bishop Gorman, the No. 1 ranked high school football team the past two seasons. Tells me the mental focus Murray has taken on for this game, and how much he wants this game. He will run ALL OVER the Cowboys' defense today.
In SUMMARY, why this is the SMART PLAY with this game - It's like this, if the sad-sack New York Giants could dominate the Cowboys all game last Sunday night, and Dallas needed a terrible decision by Eli Manning to be able to comeback, I can't imagine what's going to happen against a solid Eagles team that is 100 times better than the Giants.
1* PHILADELPHIA