Scott Delaney
My free play is going to be quick and simple - in a rematch of last year's NFC Championship, it'll be the Packers over the Seahawks.
It's the home opener, and the Packers have a chance to make a statement in this game. And let me tell you something, in the event of some late-season playoff jockeying, this game could make a huge difference in terms of which team might host a playoff game.
Green Bay (1-0) looked good against its longtime NFC North rival Chicago Bears last week 31-23. Meanwhile, Seattle looked lost and vulnerable in a 34-31 overtime loss at the Rams in the opener.
Sorry, but the Packers look more prepared for this season, and will humiliate Seattle in this one. It's not going to be close.
2* GREEN BAY
Doug Upstone
Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Arizona Cardinals -2
The Chicago Bears are home underdogs against Arizona and this is the fifth consecutive time the Bears have been in this role and the last time that happened was 16 years ago. (That too occurred over two seasons) This will also be the seventh straight time Chicago will be catching points which last happened to a NFL team seven years ago.
If none of this sounds good, you are correct and home teams like CHICAGO who allowed 24 or more points last season, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored, are 13-38 ATS in the next contest.
Tony Karpinski
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills +2
REx Ryan knows how to contain Gronk, and this Buffalo team has a lot of weapons. The Pats have lost a lot of guys on the defensive side of the ball this season, this is going to be a struggle. Dion Lewis can really make plays with his feet also, which I didn't think many people tend to pay attention to. Buffalo and their new QB, can play the game. I think many should keep an eye out. They get lots of pressure on opposing QBs in al sorts of ways. Rex Ryan is the man behind the mask, and he has this team as he wants it. Bills LG Richie Incognito was outstanding keeping pressure off of Tyrod Taylor, so I expect Taylor to have time again to look downfield. WR Sammy Watkins has to get open, and with Malcolm Butler likely covering him, I expect him to get more touches this week, for sure. Taylor is a different QB than what we saw before, when he gets the pass protection he was fine. Buffalo always plays the Pats tough. And Buffalos D is looking dominant this year again.
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA -5 over Dallas
Very often the best games to bet are for or against teams that played on Sunday or Monday night the previous week. Those prime-time games are viewed by every gambler in North America. They take a ton of action and they almost always have the biggest over and under-reactions the following week. This week we get the luxury of having had both these teams play in prime time last week. First up on Sunday night were the Cowboys, who rallied late to defeat the Giants at home. That final drive to win it was a thing of beauty.
Then came the Eagles and their flying circus on Monday night in Atlanta. For every 10 bets made that night, nine of them were backing the Eagles. What 90% of the betting population witnessed that night was a struggling Philadelphia offense, a struggling QB and a very disappointing straight up loss. Those same people are absolutely not anxious to get behind the Eagles again. After all, if they couldn’t beat Atlanta by 2½ (the spread), how the hell are they going to beat the ‘Boys by twice that?
That’s when we step in. We’ve said it a million times over that the best time to jump on a team is when everyone else is jumping off. As a six-point favorite at home, Dallas won only because Tom Coughlin has no fu**ing idea how to manage a clock. If you picked 10,000 football coaches to stand on the sidelines and coach the last 2 minutes of that game, 9,999 of them would have wound up winning it. Still, Dallas pretty much dominated that game so we can understand why the market is behind them here. The market is focusing on fading Philly, as oppose to backing Dallas. Almost any team playing Philly today would be faded because the Eagles let down a lot of people last week.
Matt Ryan had all day to throw and the thinking is that if Tony Romo is given that much time to throw, he’ll rip the Eagles apart. That’s actually true but that doesn’t mean he’ll get all day. We can assure you that Philly Chip and his crew will be working on some things. We can assure you that the Eagles will be much better this week. Sam Bradford looked a little overwhelmed at times last week but it was his first taste of running a new offense for his new team. He, too, will be much better this week. There was a ton of hype surrounding the Eagles before Week 1. Every publication was calling them a juggernaut with many of those suggesting this was a Super Bowl quality team. One average performance on the road later and all that hype has fizzled out dramatically. We’ll look to take advantage of the market’s overreaction to Philadelphia losing on Monday night.
Atlanta +130 over N.Y. GIANTS
Coincidentally or not, the four teams that played on Sunday and Monday nights will hook up in a different order today. We mentioned before that the teams featured on Sunday and Monday nights get the most exposure so there is a natural reaction to bet of fade them this week based on what was observed last week. What the market saw in regards to the Falcons/Eagles was not a great game by Atlanta but a poor game for Philadelphia. We wrtote at length last week about Atlanta’s new coaching regime and how these Falcons would show a relentless pursuit of the ball carrier one very play. Falcons Coach, Mike Quinn does not tolerate half ass efforts when it comes to tackling or any other attention to detail. He has always preached defense first and that was evident in Atlanta’s win at home over the Eagles on Monday night. We cannot overstate enough how gratifying that win was for Atlanta and how much confidence it gives them moving forward. For several years now, Atlanta’s offense has been under extreme pressure to score almost every possession because its defense could not get off the field. It’s demoralizing for everyone. It’s only one week but it changes the mindset for every player in that Atlanta locker room, especially Matt Ryan and the offense, at least for now. Not only did the Dirty Birds win their opener but their defense showed up and held what was supposed to be the greatest offense since the Dan Fouts/Don Coryell era in San Diego to just 24 points. As the game wore on, Atlanta was feeling it more and more. They had a certain swag about them like they knew they were going to win. They played a great game and they played it with focus and purpose. They’ll take that attitude, momentum, focus and new-found confidence into New York today.
Meanwhile, the market sees a Giants team that went into Dallas and came within one play of defeating the ‘Boys as a six point underdog. We don’t see it that way at all. We see a blown opportunity. We see a dejected Giants team off to another bad start. We see a team in disbelief after what appeared to be a sure victory. What we saw was a very lucky Giants team to even be in that position. New York had a mere 190 yards in the air the entire night. They had 18 first downs to the ‘Boys 27. Dallas held a ridiculous 15 minute time of possession advantage over the Giants. The G-Men did not sack Tony Romo even one time and were outgained by a close to 2-1 ratio. That New York even had a chance to win that game was a near miracle. It is in games like these that the ability to see things as they truly are can pay huge dividends over an extended time period. Atlanta outright.
SPORTS WAGERS
Winnipeg +10 over MONTREAL
We’re going to stick with our wager that was posted on Monday of Winnipeg +10. The line is actually out of whack because the Alouettes cannot be spotting double digits. The market agreed to a lesser degree than we anticipated but the line has dropped to -9½ or -9 depending on where you shop. For those of you that made that wager with us early in the week, the recommendation is to let it stand as a 2-unit bet. For those that missed out early in the week and may be looking to step in today, we’re still recommending Winnipeg plus the points because there is still tremendous value on them.
Winnipeg woke up last week with a 22-9 win over the Riders. We understand that a victory over that team means little but there are some key elements to it. First, Matt Nichols went 21-30 for 283 yards and a TD and that gives the entire team a boost. The Bombers were able to outgain the Riders by 188 yards, which is huge because the entire offense witnessed the chains moving all day. Nichols isn’t the savior by any means but at least he gives them some stability and more confidence. That win was also the first taste of victory in over a month for Winnipeg and one win does wonders for a teams’ psyche.
The Als have been off since September 3 when they lost by nine points to British Columbia. We’re not sure how you lose by nine points to that team but they did. As a result of that loss, Turk Schonert was relieved of his offensive coordinater duties. Schonert has been replaced by Anthony Calvillo and Ryan Dinwiddie. Dinwiddie was the offensive coordinator last season, but it’ll be Calvillo calling the plays. That’s two offensive coordinators working together, not one, but only one is calling the plays. We’re not sure what the other one is for but it is what it is. Calvillo and Dinwiddle will be calling the plays for Jonathan Crompton, who starts at quarterback for the first time since June 25, when he suffered a shoulder injury against Ottawa. The Als were outgained that day in Ottawa by 180 yards. Montreal has four wins on the year. They are much worse without Rakeem Cato. In Montreal's 10 games to date, they have one victory by more than 10 points. Being off for 17 days is not beneficial either. Often teams are flat coming off a one-week layoff but the Als are coming off a two week layoff -- plus. There has not been a lot of double-digit spreads this year. Big spreads are posted when there appears to be a mismatch. There is really not a lot that separates Montreal and Winnipeg in terms of talent. Winnipeg, like the Als, also has four victories. Win, lose or draw here, we’re fairly certain that we’re going with the best of it here. This plays stands as is.
Power Sports
St. Louis vs. Chicago
Pick: Under
St. Louis is the top Under team in baseball at 61-77-10 in all games. But they've gone Over in four straight coming into today, including both games in this series. Offensively, they figure to struggle against Jon Lester this afternoon. They key will be slowing down this Cubs offense, but Carlos Martinez should.
Lester is off an impressive complete game performance at Pittsburgh in his last start where he allowed just one run and five hits. He allowed just one run and two hits in seven innings against these Cardinals the start before that & the final score there was 4-3 (in favor of St. Louis). Four of Lester's last five starts have now seen seven or fewer total runs scored.
Martinez is off a similarly impressive outing, one where he allowed just one run and four hits in eight innings. While the Under is 17-10 in Lester's 27 starts, it is 13-9 for Martinez. Day games have seen the Cards go 28-15 Under while averaging only 3.7 runs per game. The Cubs are batting just .234 in day games.
Jonathan Young
Chicago Bears + 2
This match-up is the reason I really enjoy handicapping NFL games. The Arizona Cardinals come in to Soldier Field following a 31-19 win over the New Orleans Saints last Sunday with QB Carson Palmer throwing for 307 yards and 3 TDs. The Cardinals offense did look very good against a Saints defensive unit that in my view will be at the footer of the defense rankings come December.
The Chicago Bears showed some signs of life in a 31-23 loss to the Packers in the opener, leading Green Bay, 13-10 at halftime. However, the Packers outscored the Bears, 21-3 in the second half prior to a late touchdown to seal the game.
One major factor in favour of Chicago on Sunday is that the Cardinals allowed Drew Brees to go 11-for-18 for 183 yards with a TD in three-WR formations last week, a formation that was heavily utilized by John Fox and the Bears offense against Green Bay. Chicago gained 306 yards on 41 Plays in the three-WR formation last Sunday and will be looking to implement the same in week 2.
As well as being an elite RB, Matt Forte is also one of the most effective pass catchers out of the backfield; he had 102 receptions last season and had 5 catchers last week for 25 yards. I think quick passes and screens keep Arizona’s perimeter players in check and Cutler will be able to move the chains on a regular basis.