Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday September 20,2009

Terron Chapman

Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Carolina Panthers +6.5
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Quarterback Jake Delhomme hasn’t performed well in his last two outings in front of the home faithful. Delhomme and the Panthers hope a trip to Atlanta to play the division rival Falcons can help get him back on track.
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Granted, it’s only week two of the NFL season, but the Carolina Panthers already find themselves in a must win situation. After an embarrassing performance at home against the Eagles, the Panthers know they must play better Sunday. No one player exemplifies that more than quarterback Jake Delhomme. After committing six turnovers in a loss to the Arizona Cardinals in last season’s playoffs, Delhomme started this season where he left off last, committing five turnovers in Sunday’s 38-10 loss to the Eagles.
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The Panthers now find themselves at a crossroads after extending Delhomme’s contract for five years and giving him 20 million in guarantees. Delhomme knows he must do a better job of taking care of the ball, especially on the road. He has plenty of weapons around him but none of that matters if he continues to put his team in bad situations. It doesn’t all fall on Delhomme shoulders however, as a Panthers o-line that is considered to be a good one, was manhandled by the Eagles. They must do a better job of protecting their quarterback and I expect a better showing from both them and Delhomme come Sunday.
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If the Panthers don’t play better, it could be a long afternoon against a Falcons team that looked impressive in a week one win over the Dolphins. The Atlanta offense looked improved with the addition of TE Tony Gonzalez. They figure to be a stiff test for a Panthers defense that looked mediocre at best Sunday. On the defensive side, the Falcons defense was all over the field Sunday, holding the Dolphins to just 96 yards on 22 carries. We should get a better gauge of this Falcons defense Sunday against what will be a motivated and focused Panthers offense.
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Jake Delhomme and the Panthers can put their week one showing behind them with a bounce back performance against a good Falcons team. Look for RB’s DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to be more effective after combining for only 72 yards on 25 carries against the Eagles. This is a division rivalry and coupled with a poor week one performance, I think we can expect a better showing from the visitor come Sunday. Take the points. Play on the Carolina Panthers for 1 unit. Good luck to all.

Doc’s Sports

Take Under 43½ in New York @ Dallas

It is the opening of Six Flags over Jerry and this is a key match-up in the NFC East as both teams enter 1-0. The Cowboys looked good in the opener but I do not believe that their offense is as explosive with Terrell Owens. The Giants do not have any good receivers that can stretch since Plaxico Burress is off the team. I expect this to be a defensive dominated game and we will not worry about who comes out on top and just collect with the under.

John Martin

1 Unit on Oakland Raiders +3

The road team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series. Oakland went into K.C. last year, coming out with a 23-8 victory behind 300 rushing yards. Oakland should have beaten the San Diego Chargers last week, but a blown call by the refs on an overturned touchdown cost them the game. The Raiders threw for 218 yards and rushed for 148 more in the 20-24 loss. Kansas City managed just 188 yards of total offense against Baltimore last week. They are in shambles right now with the loss of QB Matt Cassel, who isn't expected to play this week, either. The road team is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings overall. The Chiefs are 3-10 ATS in their last 10 home games. Oakland is a lot further along than the Chiefs right now, and that will be evident once this one goes final Sunday. Cash in with the Raiders as the underdog.

Black Widow

1* on Pittsburgh Steelers -3

The defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers head into Chicago to take on Jay Cutler and the Bears in Week 2. Cutler threw 4 interceptions in a 15-21 loss at Green Bay last week, and throughout his career this hasn't been a quarterback that has handled adversity very well at all. Look for this Steelers' defense to get after him early and often to force more mistakes from Cutler, because he'll surely start Sunday's game with those four interceptions in the back of his mind. He'll be conservative, and this Bears' offense won't be able to make enough plays to keep up with Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers "O". Plus, Chicago will be playing without defensive leader Brian Urlacher for the remainder of the season after breaking his wrist in last week's lost. Pittsburgh also has a few extra days to prepare for this one after taking care of Tennessee 13-10 in their opener last Thursday. Roethlisberger threw for 363 yards and a touchdown last week. The Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games. Chicago is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as the underdog. The Bears need this one more, but unfortunately for Chicago fans they aren't going to get it because Pittsburgh is far and away the better team in this match-up and they aren't afraid to go on the road and win a big game. Take Pittsburgh and lay the points.

Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY (NFL GOM, Also a Power Angle Play)

Oakland +3 over KANSAS CITY: The Chiefs are a mess right now and were very lucky to lose by just 14 points last week to the ravens, after they were outgained 501-188 in the contest. Now their pitiful offense must take on a Raiders defense that looked pretty damn good vs San Diego on Monday night. LY Oakland travelled to KC after a monday nighter with the Chargers, outrushing them by 245 yards in the 23-8 win. 5 of the Chiefs last 6 games to end 2008 they allowed 135 yards rushing or more and they were out rushed by the Ravens in game 1 by 159 yards. That won't get it done in the NFL. Raiders by at least a TD here. POWER ANGLES FOR THIS PLAY-- Go against a true Rookie HC vs division foe in the 1st 2 weeks of the year. 19-4-2 since 2000 (2-0 TY). 2nd One. Go Against a Sept home fav of 4 or less that is off a loss and playing a division opponent. 29-12-1 the last 38.

3 UNIT PLAY

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Minnesota -10 over DETROIT: Matt Stafford did throw for 205 yards last week , but also had 3 INT's. He only hit 43% of his passes and 64 of his yards came on one play. Minnesota held Cleveland to 179 yards passing and 70 of those yards came when the game was already settled. Look for Minnesota's stout run defense to keep Detroit in 3rd and longs and make Stafford make plays, which he won't be able to. The Vikings run game is top notch and will move easily vs this Detroit defense. Minnesota wins by 14+ here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY-- Go against any team in week 2 that rushed for 50 yards or less in week 1. 25-7-1 S/ 95.

Info Plays

3* on San Francisco 49ers -1

Reasons why the 49ers cover the spread:

1.) 49er fans have been yearning for a winner for year, and they finally have one. Mike Singletary has installed a new attitude in this team that's contagious, and they went on the road and beat Arizona last week 20-16 to start the season. Including the preseason, the 49ers are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall, all under the guidance of Singletary. They are 5-1 in their last six regular season games. This team plays the game the right way. Run the football, mix in timely passing, and get after it defensively. The 49ers now have one of the best defenses in the league.

2.) Seattle is 1-13 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more since 1992. The Seahawks are 0-7 ATS in road games after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. Seattle may have beaten up on the Rams at home last week, but now they face a much stiffer challenge in a hungry 49ers' team that won't be denied on their home turf Sunday. Bet San Francisco at home.

Norm Hitzges

Giants +3 vs Cowboys
New England -3.5 vs NY Jets
Houston +6.5 vs Tennessee
Minnesota -9.5 vs Detroit
Washington -9.5 vs St. Louis
Arizona +3 vs Jacksonville
Chicago +3 vs Pittsburgh
Tennessee/Houston Over 40.5
Washington/St. Louis Under 36.5

WUNDERDOG

Oakland at Kansas City
Pick: Oakland +3

What used to be a battle for AFC supremacy has turned into a battle for the basement in the AFC West. How the once mighty have fallen. So, which team is finally getting off the mat? I'm not sure if either is, but if you look at the drafts and the progress, you would have to consider the Raiders a brighter prospect at this point, at least in the near term. The biggest improvement by the Raiders was seen on the offensive line in week one. The Chargers could not get any pressure on Jamarcus Russell and had just one sack, as Russell connected on several long passes. If he wasn't way off on a few others, he would have thrown at least one more touchdown. Darren McFadden and Michael Bush give the Raiders a ground game that should find room against the Chiefs, opening the door for Russell to strike long again as the Chiefs simply have no pass rush. Richard Seymour on the Oakland defensive line made a difference already as the Raiders were putting a lot of pressure on Phillip Rivers. The Chiefs are going to have a hard time moving the ball in this one. While KC used to rule at home, but the talent has left the building and so have the covers as they are just 4-11 ATS at home over their last 15 games. The Raiders have covered seven of nine games this decade as an underdog in KC. I think the Raiders are a much-improved team, and we are getting the better team here and points to go with it.

Alex Grosse

Arizona Cardinals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars -3

The Cardinals appear to be suffering from a Super Bowl hangover despite the fact that they didn’t even win the Super Bowl. They proved last Sunday that their winless preseason is a strong indicator of how they will perform this year. Arizona’s struggles have been heavily related to Kurt Warner’s struggles. Warner completed 24/46 passes (52.2%) for 320 yards, 3 interceptions and no touchdowns and had a passer rating of 47.4 in the preseason. He was not much better against San Francisco as he threw 2 interceptions to one touchdown and was sacked 3 times. Another key factor to consider in this one is the fact that Arizona is playing on the East Coast. The Cards played terrible on East Coast in the regular season last year going 0-5 and being outscored by an average margin of 20 points per game! Jack Del Rio’s job is on the line so you can expect him to exploit the Cards’ weaknesses in every way possible, mainly by applying a lot of pressure on Kurt Warner. I am not a big fan of Jacksonville but I think that there are too many factors in their favor in this matchup.

New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: New Orleans Saints -1

This will be an exciting matchup featuring two of the NFC’s most explosive offensive powerhouses. The Eagles managed to score 38 points against Carolina mainly because their defense forced 5 turnovers, meanwhile Drew Brees threw for 358 yards and 6 touchdowns to help the Saints generate 45 points against Detroit.

I like the Saints in this matchup for two main reasons. First, Donovan McNabb fractured a rib last week and will likely not play. This means that despite signing Jeff Garcia, Kevin Kolb will likely be the starting quarterback for the Eagles in their home opener. Kolb has little experience at the professional level since he has never started a game in his young career. His numbers are not fantastic by any means. He has completed 24/45 passes (53.3%) for 167 yards, 4 interceptions and no touchdowns. The main issue with Kolb is his low yards per passing attempt. His career average is 3.7 yards and when he replaced McNabb last week he managed only 23 yards, completing 7 of 11 passing attempts. This means that Philadelphia’s offense will rely heavily on Brian Westbrook to keep chains moving. The other reason I like New Orleans in this one is because the Saints were sharp against the run last week allowing only 33 rushing yards to the Lions. Obviously Philly’s ground attack is much more dangerous than Detroit’s but facing a very limited passing attack, the Saints will likely stack eight in the box forcing third and longs. The key to New Orleans’ success will be based on stopping the Eagles ground attack and putting points on the board. Fortunately, they are one of the strongest offensive teams in the league. If Drew Brees can limit his mistakes by not taking unnecessary risks and avoiding throwing the ball into heavy coverage, the Saints should have no problem taking this one.

Doug Williams

Arizona +3.5 @ Jacksonville -3.5
Arizona is having your typical post Super Bowl losing team jinx, and look for it to continue to happen, Jax gave Indy a bit of a run in weel 1, and look for them to build off the momentum here. Jacksonville Covers.

Oakland +3.5 @ Kansas City -3.5
The addition of Richard Seymour to the D-line of Oakland has made a decent defense pretty darn good. People tend to overlook these things just because this is Oakland. Kansas City, Cassel or not, just isnt that good. Take the Raiders to Cover.

New England -3.5 @ New York Jets +3.5
The last guy to call out the Pats before a game no longer has a job in the NFL, due mostly in part to his public humiliation at the hands of the Patriots. Not that anybody is losing their jobs after this week, but hey, DON'T POKE THE BEAR! Patriots Cover.

Carolina +6.5 @ Atlanta -6.5
Is this really Jake Delhomme? A guy who was undefeated at home in the regular season last year? His last 2 games have been simply Rex Grossman like, but the bleeding will stop this week, take Carolina to at least Cover.

Randall the Handle

NY Giants +1.33 over DALLAS

If one game means anything at all than the Boys are in some serious trouble. Yes, they won last week against the turbulent Bucs but they were the second best team on the field and it wasn’t close. The Bucs offense, which is supposed to be a complete disaster, pushed around Dallas’ D-line and gained 175 years on the ground and produced a total of 450 yards. That’s incredible, it really is when you consider the lack of weapons the Bucs have. Furthermore, and although he passed for a career high 353 yards, Tony Romo completed just 16 of 27 passes with three of those being of the bomb variety. No way does Romo go deep on the Giants three times for scores. The Bucs outplayed the Cowboys from start to finish and perhaps Dallas was looking ahead to this one but the Giants come here already battle tested and off a solid game against the Skins in which they won 23-17 and looked good against a decent team and a great defense. Incidentally, the Giants were up 23-10 and the Skins scored a TD with a 90 seconds left in the game to make it look a bit closer. Anyway, Dallas looks like they can be pushed around and exploited and if they don’t improve by 100% here they’re going to get their *** handed to them. Keep the points. Play: NY Giants +1.33 (Risking 2 units).

NY JETS +4 over New England

Some might view the Pats miracle win over Buffalo last week a wake-up call and a game in which Tom Brady was able to get some rust out and perhaps all that is true. However, what was more apparent was that the Patriots defense looked slow and weak and the offense, while they moved the ball, still attempted 53 passes because they couldn’t move on the ground. In fact, the Pats found themselves in a ton of third and 5’s or 6’s. Now they’ll travel on a short week after a huge scare and they’ll be playing a team that looked absolutely terrific in week 1. The Jets went into Houston last week and whacked the Texans 24-7. The held the high-powered Texan offense to under 200 yards and that’s a huge accomplishment. It was easy to see Rex Ryan’s stamp on this defense in his first game as Jets head coach after leading the Ravens’ stingy unit for the past several years. Houston’s offense got past midfield just once in the first three quarters. The Texans were outgained 462-183, Steve Slaton was held to 17 yards rushing and Andre Johnson had 35 yards receiving. Mark Sanchez sparkled in his debut in the NFL, throwing for 272 yards and a touchdown and looked poised as a seasoned vet in the process. The Patriots were the supposed to be juiced up last week to open up on Monday Night Football and with the return of Brady but instead they looked awful on defense and should’ve gone down to the Bills. The Pats will get a ton more pressure from the Jets defense; that you can take to the bank. The Jets looked too good all the way around to be thought of as a one-week wonder and it says here they win outright but these points are just a little insurance and makes the play stronger. Play: NY Jets +4 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Tampa Bay +5 over BUFFALO

The Bills strong performance on Monday night has provided us with a great opportunity here. You see, the whole football world watched as the Bills had the upset of the week in its hands only to blow it in the final two minutes. That showing has prompted an inflated line, as bettors see the Bills as a decent squad that just got robbed in the end. Maybe they are a much-improved team but I’m not buying it just yet. Laying points with bad teams is bad strategy and these Bills will play off a devastating loss and they’ll also be playing on a short week. All of a sudden they’ll be playing with some pressure on them after they were pretty much “free-rolling” last week, expected to lose by a wide margin. What I do know is that the Bucs controlled the running game last week against Dallas. They held the ball for over 33 minutes and the score was in no way indicative of how they played. They amassed 450 yards on offense and aside from three bombs that went for scores, the defense held Tony Romo to just 16 completions on 27 attempts. Buffalo also has to overcome some psychological deficiencies, as they’ve lost five straight at home and they failed to score a single TD in the last three home losses. Buffalo at home laying points to anyone is about as risky as it gets. Play: Tampa Bay +5 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

Tony George
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New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
Play: New England -3.5
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After a debacle on Monday Night where the Pats showed their weakness on defense, losing the likes of Seymore, Vrable, Harrision and a few others, I doubt they let rookie QB Sanchez walk all over them in a divisional game. My scouts tell me practice was intense all week. QB Brady looked less than stellar on Monday but warmed up later and id what he does, win games. Expect a fired up Jets team to try to run it a lot, and expect NE to load up on the front line to force rookie Sanchez to have to throw. I also expect the Pats offense to get going here and try to incorporate their RB's into the passing game more out in the flat where NY is suspect. Pats 8-0 SU and ATS at Meadowlands the last 8! Unlike playing the Texans last week, the Pats run defense will be stiffer after a poor showing against Buffalo on Monday and rookie Sanchez will see some blitzs and be forced to win it through the air, doubt NE lets him shred them like Houston did!
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Play on New England

John Ryan
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Arizona Cardinals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Under 42.5
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play UNDER Arizona/Jacksonville set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows an 82% probability that 42 or fewer points will be scored in this game. This is obviously a very big game for both teams and perhaps even bigger for Arizona. Only 14% of 0-2 teams make the playoffs. With the pressure to win so high for both teams a defensive game scheme will be applied by both teams. This also means offensive schemes playing conservative and minimizing turnovers. Supporting this graded play is a very good system sporting a record of 70-36 over the past 5 seasons. Play under with any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the first two weeks of the season. Here is a second system that has gone 80-39 for 67% winners since 1983. Play under with any team against the total and is a marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 60% of their games and after 1 or more consecutive losses. AiS also shows a 90% probability that both QB's will not complete 60% o better of their pass attempts. Take the UNDER

Cajun Sports
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St Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Under 37
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Washington returns home after a Week 1 loss to the New York Giants 23 to 17 and play host to the 0-1 SU St. Louis Rams who also dropped their season opener on the road at Seattle 28 to 0. The Redskins rushed the ball 21 times for a total of 85 yards and they were 19 of 26 for 187 yards through the air. Their defense only allowed the Giants to rush for just over 100 yards with 103 on 31 tries and they kept the New York passing attack below 250 yards passing on the day with a total of 248 yards. The Rams rushed for 77 yards on 18 attempts and passed for 170 yards on 17 of 36 through the air. St. Louis struggled stopping the run giving up 167 yards on 34 attempts to the Seahawks and allowed another 279 passing in the shutout loss. Neither teams offense has shown much to start the season and we don’t expect them to be much improved here. St. Louis is 0-8-1 under as an underdog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing a home game. Washington is 8-20 under in games played on grass the last three season, 4-12 under their last 16 overall, 0-8 under as a favorite, 90-118 under versus conference opponents since 1992 and 2-9 under when playing with six or less days rest the last two seasons. Finally we want to Play Under on road underdogs of seven or more points when they are one game under .500 on the season after playing a road game. These underdogs have gone under at a rate of 0-13 since 2001 and average going under by more than ten points per game. We will play this one to fall well below the posted total in Washington on Sunday.
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Graded Selection: 2* St. Louis / Washington UNDER 37