Tony Weston
How about that one? I told you to go with Washington and the Huskies not only cover, but pull off the biggest upset so far of this early college football season.
Absolutely amazing.
I’m giving you another winner and another underdog as I’m taking the Oakland Raiders on the road at the Kansas City Chiefs.
Both teams looked pretty good last week in their season openers, but Kansas City comes into this game, just like last week’s, with issues at quarterback. Matt Cassel is still nursing an injured knee and will be a game-time decision. If he doesn’t go, it’ll be Brodie Croyle getting the start under center.
But, that may not matter.
Consider that in this rivalry the road team has covered in 16 of the last 22 meetings between these two and the Raiders have covered in 5 of their last 6 at Arrowhead Stadium.
Keep in mind, too, Kansas City comes into this game having failed to cover in 10 of its last 13 games at home and is 0-4 its last 4 games when installed as a home favorite. And in this series, the underdog has cashed in four straight times.
The Raiders come into this game installed as about a 3-point underdog, which bodes well for them considering they’ve gone 5-2 their last 7 games when installed as a ’dog. Also, Oakland has cashed in 7 of its last 9 games when installed as a road underdog within the AFC West.
They’re going to cash in again today and flirt with the outright win. Just as Washington did yesterday, Oakland will cash in today.
3♦ RAIDERS
King Creole
DEN / CLE Under 39
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The Brownies are ONE of THREE teams that qualify in a Rushing System that KING CREOLE covered in this week's Playbook TOTALS TIPSHEET. We can't reveal the particulars of the System without letting the 'cat out of the bag' but we CAN tell you this: It's gone a PERFECT 0-7 O/U in Game 2 of NFL play in the last 10 seasons.
That home 'spanking' at the hands of the Vikings also has the Browns active in this one:1-7-1 L4Y: All SEPT road dogs playing off a SU home loss of 14 > points.
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Meanwhile, the Broncos are off a game in which they snatched a win from Cincy with a fluke TD pass in the last 11 seconds! That puts them in the company of a couple of solid 'UNDER' Systems:
(1) 1-8 O/U since 2005: All GAME TWO teams off a SU week one win as an UNDERDOG of 4 > points.
(2) 1-7 O/U since 2001: All GAME 2 teams playing off a SU win in which they scored AND allowed only 13 or less points.
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Don't forget about the article that I wrote in the 2009 Playbook YEARBOOK. A non-division game in Week Two of the season with a LOW Over / Under line is usually justified! 11-26-3 O/U since 1982: All GAME TWO non-division home favs of 10 < points with an OU line of 39 < points. In fact, in the last 5 years... these games have gone an almost PERFECT 1-9-1 O/U!
ANDRE GOMES
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Los Angeles Sparks @ Seattle Storm
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The Sparks should have won the second game of this series, but instead they are now playing the final game. With 14.3 seconds to go they were leading by 4 points 74-70 and with 5 seconds to go they were leading by one point and had ball possession just to allow a steal in an inbound pass and lose the game.
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Honestly I doubt that the Sparks will be sloppy down the stretch like they were in game 2 because this is a win or go home game. I was with them in game 1 and they easily defeated the Storm and in the last game all the edges the Sparks have against the Storm were evident. They outrebounded the Storm 40-24 with 17-7 offensive boards; they have more points in the paint and only an extremely efficient night behind the arc from the Storm (8-13 3pts) prevented the Storm to sweep the series. I expect the Sparks to confirm their superiority tonight as it will be almost impossible for the Storm to have such lucky like they did in game 2. Take the Sparks in here.
Spartan
For Sunday I am suggesting a wager on the Baltimore Ravens +3 at San Diego. Frankly I feel the Ravens are not only the better team at this stage but the tougher team overall. I have literally a ton of trends to support the play with the Ravens as well. I must candidly also admit I'm no real fan of Chargers head coach Norv Turner, I have not in my recent memory recalled a coach that got less out of more on an consistent basis than Turner. I'll gladly take Baltimore and the points regardless of where this game is played.
Bob Wingerter
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New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: New Orleans Saints -1
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Who knows the Eagles as well as any coach outside their organization in the NFL? Saints’ head coach Sean Payton is on the short list. He spent a lot of time in the NFC East with New York and Dallas, and he has seen a lot of the Philadelphia offense, with McNabb, and without McNabb when McNabb has been injured. He knows what they are limited to when McNabb isn’t in there, or when McNabb is in there but cannot run the ball. He also knows that screens to Reggie Bush might be the best counter against Philly’s defensive pressure. If the Eagles send guys after Brees, and suddenly Bush is in front of them and the Saints have “numbers” on the break, Philly is dead. But if they cannot blitz brazenly for fear of letting Bush spring loose, then they are playing back on their heels and will not like it one bit. If Brees gets the ball into the hands of Colston and Shockey and either finds himself in front of one of those little Eagles’ cornerbacks, those cornerbacks will find themselves flattened. TAKE NEW ORLEANS HERE.
Branden Martin
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Week #2 in the NFL is here and one of the best defensive games of the week is between defending Superbowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers and the Chicago Bears. Now, both teams are going to try and move forward without a defensive star. For the Steelers it’s Troy Polamalu and for the Bears it’s Brian Urlacher. Week #1 the Steelers looked sluggish at home versus the Titans, in a game which the Titans probably should have won. On the other side the Bears looked ugly themselves with a Sunday night loss at Green Bay. The question is does the Defending champs keep rolling with another win on the road in unfamiliar territory to take them to a 2-0 record? Or, does Chicago bounce back at home as a small underdog to avoid a deep 0-2 hole? The answer is Chicago bounces back to avoid to 0-2 hole, which could kill the season early. The Steelers haven’t visited Soldier Field in Chicago since 1995 where they won in overtime, their lone win in 11 visits to Chicago. The Steelers in my opinion are the overall better team, but in this situation its hard to pass up points at home with a team that is already facing an early season must win. Look for the Bears to establish their defense and if Cutler can control the ball without turnovers, the Bears should get back to a .500 record.
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Pick: Chicago Bears +3
DUNKEL
Arizona at Jacksonville
The Jaguars look to take advantage of an Arizona team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a road underdog between 1 and 3 points. Jacksonville is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Jaguars favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-3)
Game 205-206: Oakland at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 124.371; Kansas City 126.733
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3); Over
Game 207-208: Houston at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 132.988; Tennessee 136.809
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4; 39
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 7; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+7); Under
Game 209-210: New England at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: New England 136.277; NY Jets 131.730
Dunkel Line: New England by 4 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: New England by 3 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3 1/2); Over
Game 211-212: Cincinnati at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 127.925; Green Bay 137.301
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 9 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 9; 42
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-9); Over
Game 213-214: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 131.854; Detroit 122.630
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 9; 49
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 10; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+10); Over
Game 215-216: New Orleans at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 137.668; Philadelphia 141.656
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 4; 44
Vegas Line: Pick; 46
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia; Under
Game 217-218: Carolina at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 131.424; Atlanta 136.567
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5; 47
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+6 1/2); Over
Game 219-220: St. Louis at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 121.293; Washington 129.639
Dunkel Line: Washington by 8 1/2; 37 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 10; 37
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+10); Over
Game 221-222: Arizona at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 129.561; Jacksonville 134.597
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 5; 44 1/2
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-3); Over
Game 223-224: Seattle at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 128.202; San Francisco 128.607
Dunkel Line: Even; 40
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+1 1/2); Over
Game 225-226: Tampa Bay at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 127.089; Buffalo 132.419
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 5 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 4 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-4 1/2); Under
Game 227-228: Cleveland at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 127.898; Denver 127.463
Dunkel Line: Even; 35
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Under
Game 229-230: Baltimore at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 136.831; San Diego 142.454
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 5 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-3); Under
Game 231-232: Pittsburgh at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 139.209; Chicago 136.904
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 40 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Over
Game 233-234: NY Giants at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 137.700; Dallas 139.948
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 2; 42
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3); Under
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 21
Game 235-236: Indianapolis at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.704; Miami 133.365
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Under
MLB
LA Angels at Texas
The Angels look to take advantage of a Texas team that is just 2-6 in Derek Holland's last 8 starts as an underdog. LA is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-160)
Game 901-902: Florida at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (West) 15.266; Cincinnati (Wells) 14.882
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 903-904: Washington at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Mock) 13.595; NY Mets (Maine) 14.678
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-155); Over
Game 905-906: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 16.004; Atlanta (Hanson) 15.770
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+100); Under
Game 907-908: San Diego at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Correia) 14.640; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.146
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100); Over
Game 909-910: Houston at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Paulino) 14.900; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.586
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+170); Over
Game 911-912: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 14.669; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.847
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-175); Over
Game 913-914: Colorado at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 14.742; Arizona (Haren) 15.328
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-125); Under
Game 915-916: San Francisco at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.603; LA Dodgers (Wolf) 16.239
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-110); Over
Game 917-918: Boston at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Matsuzaka) 15.296; Baltimore (Berken) 15.471
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-185); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+175); Under
Game 919-920: Toronto at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Halladay) 14.379; Tampa Bay (Price) 16.009
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+115); Under
Game 921-922: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Tejeda) 16.740; White Sox (Garcia) 15.533
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+120); Over
Game 923-924: Detroit at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Robertson) 14.997; Minnesota (Baker) 14.879
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-185); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+175); Under
Game 925-926: LA Angels at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Lackey) 15.551; Texas (Holland) 14.435
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-160); Under
Game 927-928: Cleveland at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carmona) 13.983; Oakland (Eveland) 16.868
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-125); Under
Game 929-930: NY Yankees at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 15.257; Seattle (Snell) 15.778
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+160); Over
WNBA
Los Angeles at Seattle
The Sparks look to bounce back from their Game Two loss and build on their 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Los Angeles is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+1)
Game 619-620: Los Angeles at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 114.648; Seattle 113.726
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 152 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 1; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+1); Over
CFL
Winnipeg at Montreal
The Bluebombers look to build on their 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 road games. Winnipeg is the pick (+14) according to Dunkel, which has Montreal favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+14)
Game 475-476: Winnipeg at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 108.150; Montreal 120.491
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 12 1/2; 51 1/2
Vegas Line: Montreal by 14; 48
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+14); Over
Game 477-478: Edmonton at Saskatchewan
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 110.337; Saskatchewan 112.885
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 2 1/2; 55 1/2
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 4; 57
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+4); Under
VEGAS EXPERTS
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Rockies' starter Ubaldo Jiminez has struggled on the road this year, but the team needs this game to maintain its lead in the NL Wild Card chase. This will be the third time this season Jiminez has faced Dbacks starter Dan Haren with each winning in the other's home park. Jiminez threw seven scoreless innings in his 4/7 win over Arizona. The Dbacks are a horrible 15-25 in day games this season.
Play on: Colorado
LT Profits
The Oakland Raiders played as well as they possibly can Monday Night against the San Diego Chargers, and while that would normally make us lean against them here in a letdown spot, this contest vs. the Kansas City Chiefs is a rare winnable game for them.
After all, the Raiders have actually won outright here in Kansas City each of the last two years. In fact, the road teams are now 5-0 straight up in the last five head-to-head meetings and 16-5-1 against the spread in the last 22 meetings.
Granted, JaMarcus Russell is not an NFL quarterback, but the their credit, the Oakland offensive line played great Monday night and they do have an effective running game with the trio of Darren McFadden, Michael Bush and Justin Vargas. That could be all they need to spring the upset here vs. a Kansas City defense that allowed a whopping 501 yards to the Baltimore Ravens last week, including 198 yards on the ground on a generous 4.8 yards per carry.
The Chiefs were also awful on the other side of the ball, as they generated only 188 total yards of offense in that contest. The only reason the score was as close as it was (38-24) is because Kansas City scored on a blocked punt recovered in the end zone and on a short drive set up by an interception. Do not look for the Chiefs to get that lucky today vs. an Oakland defense that limited the high-powered Chargers Monday until the last two drives of the game.
Look for the Raiders to build on their Monday effort rather than letting down, and the end result should be an outright win.
Pick: Raiders +3
Rocketman
Oakland @ Kansas City
Play: Oakland +3
The Raiders impressed me somewhat this past Monday night against a much better Chargers team. Kansas City is 1-4 SU and 0-4 ATS as a favorite the past 3 years. Oakland is 2-0 SU and ATS at Kansas City the past 3 years. Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Chiefs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games. Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Kansas City. Road team is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 meetings. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Oakland today!
Tom Freese
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Under
Tampa Bay is 14-4 UNDER their last 18 games and they are 17-5 UNDER their last 22 Sunday games. The Rays are 19-6-1 UNDER in Game 3 of a series and they are 5-1 UNDER their last 6 games as underdogs. Toronto is 11-3-1 UNDER their last 15 games as home favorites. The Blue Jays are 8-3-1 UNDER with Roy Halladay on the mound as a favorite. The Blue Jays are 34-16 UNDER their last 50 games vs. the Rays. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Carlo Campanella
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts
Miami hosts the Colts on Monday Night Football and find themselves in the home Dog role for their home opener.Monday's home game is sandwiched in between two tough road games- Last Sunday's tough 7-19 loss in Atlanta and then they'll have to travel to San Diego next weekend- The road might be a better place for the Fish as they're 1-5 ATS during their last six at home behind Head Coach Tony Sparano. Dolphins QB Pennington is not in his best role either, as we find him at 4-11 ATS as a home Dog and now he tackles a Colts team that's looking to put some offense together after skimming by last Sunday with a 14-12 win against Jacksonville. Expect QB Manning to get things rolling in front of a national TV audience as the Colts are a profitable 5-1 ATS after being held to 14 points or less in their previous game during the Regular season.
7* Play On Indianapolis
Jack Jones
Arizona Cardinals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Arizona Cardinals +3½
All of a sudden I'm hearing a lot of talk about the Cardinals not being that good of a team and it's making me shake my head. To me the Jags are too weak offensively to keep pace with Arizona and the Cardinals last week looked impressive on defense. San Francisco is a quality team so that loss doesn't put a damper on my opinion of the Cards. They still should have won the game if they didn't have so many penalties and turnovers so with a more disciplined performance this week they should turn things around and win this game.
BIG AL
Florida at Cincinnati
Young Marlin righthander Sean West did something in his last start that not many pitchers can claim this season. On September 15, West beat the Cardinals and leading Cy Young candidate Adam Wainwright when he threw six very strong innings, also setting a career high for strikeouts with nine. And he did this on the road at Busch Stadium. He's back on the road again, and his assignment this afternoon should seem like a walk in the park compared to Wainwright and his Cardinal team that he just defeated, so he no doubt comes into this start with perhaps more confidence than he's had all season. Not only does the rookie have a winning record in his first Major League season, but his team can seemingly do no wrong lately when he takes the mound as going back to the beginning of August Florida is 7-1 in West's eight starts. He's never faced the Reds before, but that shouldn't bother him as he will face veteran righthander Kip Wells, who after having back-to-back strong starts on August 31 and September 5 has come back down to earth in his last two starts against Colorado and Houston, giving up nine earned runs in less than 12 innings. In the last one, Wells pitched 6 2/3 innings and allowed four earned runs and five hits with two walks and one strikeout for a no-decision against the Astros on Tuesday. Wells is nothing more than a journeyman pitcher on a bad team as reflected by his 1-4 record in 31 appearances this season.
PLAY FLORIDA
JR TIPS
Giants at Cowboys
Dallas didn't look good defensively in its opener as the Cowboys gave up 450 yards to Tampa Bay last Sunday despite going on to win 34-21.The yardage total was Dallas' highest allowed in a victory in 52 games.The Buccaneers rushed for 174 yards, and Dallas will face another formidable ground attack Sunday with Brandon Jacobs and the Giants.The Cowboys overcame the poor defensive performance thanks to Tony Romo, who threw for 353 yards and three touchdowns while Dallas rushed for 118 yards, led by Marion Barber, who had 79 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. The Giants were impressive on defense last week in a 23-17 victory over Washington. They held the Redskins to 272 yards, 85 rushing and forced two turnovers and got three sacks.The Giants hope Manning can repeat his performance from the opener as he looked sharp in going 20 of 29 for 256 yards with one touchdown and one interception, completing passes to seven receivers. It will be a lot of exitement as the Cowboys are leaving Texas Stadium after 37 years and will play inr the new state-of-the-art, retractable-roof facility in Arlington. That doesn"t mean they will stop their defensive problems they had last week but the Cowboys won"t have any problems scoring themselves tonight in this environment.
TAKE OVER 45