Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 21

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Cincinnati at St. Louis
The Cardinals look to follow up last night's 8-4 win as they face a Cincinnati team that is 0-8 in Alfredo Simon's last 8 starts following a team loss in the previous game. St. Louis is the pick (-200) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-200)

Game 901-902: Washington at Miami (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 15.670; Miami (Eovaldi) 14.488
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-165); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-165); Under

Game 903-904: NY Mets at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (deGrom) 14.341; Atlanta (Santana) 15.837
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120); Over

Game 905-906: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 16.236; Pittsburgh (Worley) 15.321
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+110); Under

Game 907-908: Cincinnati at St. Louis (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Simon) 13.256; St. Louis (Lynn) 15.995
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-200); Over

Game 909-910: LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Wright) 15.957; Cubs (Turner) 14.022
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 12
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 911-912: San Francisco at San Diego (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 14.707; San Diego (Kennedy) 16.238
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-105); Under

Game 913-914: Arizona at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 13.281; Colorado (Bergman) 15.753
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-110); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-110); Under

Game 915-916: Toronto at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Hutchison) 16.324; NY Yankees (Tanaka) 15.409
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+160); Over

Game 917-918: Boston at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Kelly) 15.016; Baltimore (Gonzalez) 17.449
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-165); Over

Game 919-920: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.240; Tampa Bay (Karns) 14.190
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+140); Under

Game 921-922: Cleveland at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kluber) 16.425; Minnesota (Swarzak) 14.896
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-160); Under

Game 923-924: Detroit at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 14.583; Kansas City (Guthrie) 15.491
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105); Over

Game 925-926: Seattle at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 15.068; Houston (McHugh) 16.573
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+115); Under

Game 927-928: Texas at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Tepesch) 16.140; LA Angels (Rasmus) 15.010
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+170); Over

Game 929-930: Philadelphia at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Burnett) 14.310; Oakland (Kazmir) 15.835
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-220); Under

Art Aronson

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints -10½

From a situational stand-point, there’s no question that this game has all the makings of an epic one-sided rout, I think the home side is worth a second look in this spot. Things could not have gone worse for New Orleans to open the year, it’s 0-2 out of the gates after losing 37-34 in Atlanta in Week 1 and then 26-24 in Cleveland last Sunday. But now the Saints return to New Orleans for their first game at home and with a massive chip on their collective shoulders, there’s no question the team will have something to prove this weekend. The Vikes on the other hand are coming off listless 30-7 loss at home to the Patriots and they’ve been rocked by scandal over the last week, star RB Adrian Peterson has been charged with child negligence. Peterson has been activated and de-activated a few times this week, the RB will not play on Sunday. Obviously this is a huge distraction for the team and is a major factor that New Orleans can take advantage of. Without their workhorse to lean on, I think the Vikes offense sputters this weekend. Note that Minnesota is just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 on the road, while the Saints are 11-5 ATS their last 16 in front of the home town crowd. All signs point to a comfortable NEW ORLEANS cover.

Art Aronson's Featured Package

Carlo Campanella

Dallas Cowboys vs. St. Louis Rams
Play: Dallas Cowboys -1

The Cowboys (1-1) looked rusty in their season opener while committing 4 Turnovers when losing at San Francisco, 28-17. They put it all together last Sunday, beating a 1-1 Tennessee crew, 26-10, while rushing for 202 yards. That will be the Boy's game plan again this Sunday in St. Louis against a Rams' defense that can't stop the run, already allowing 157 and 186 rushing yards in it's first 2 games! Just look towards last year's 31-7 Cowboys win over the Rams when they dominated the line of scrimmage and rushed the ball 34 times for 197 yards during their 24 point home victory. While we're not usually big backers of the mistake prone Cowboys, they face a St. Louis team playing with back-up QBs, and that won't be enough to keep pace with the Cowboy's RB Demarco Murry. Willing to lay the point in a game Dallas needs to win.

Bryan Power

San Francisco vs. Arizona
Pick: San Francisco

Though I played against the 49ers last week (won w/ Bears outright Sunday night!), there have been two situations they have consistently excelled in under HC Jim Harbaugh. The first, which they obviously fall into here, is off a SU loss. The second is laying points on the road. I'm not a normal advocate for road chalk, but given the circumstances I'll make an exception here w/ San Francisco visiting Arizona.

Off a loss in the Harbaugh era, the Niners are 9-2 straight up and 7-3-1 against the spread. Anyone who watched last Sunday night knows that they seemed to be in complete control of the game against Chicago, at one point leading 17-3. They allowed three fourth quarter touchdowns in the loss and the key statistic was a -4 turnover differential. Arizona is a team they should bounce back against as the Cardinals are lucky to be 2-0, needing fourth quarter rallies to win both of their games. San Francisco has gone 5-1 in this NFC West rivalry the last three years and won both games last year. Cards QB Carson Palmer still may not play here.

Also, Harbaugh is 11-4-1 ATS in the road favorite role. The margin here is so slim that you'd have to think the SU win would equal a cover as well and seeing as how I can't see the Niners dropping B2B games, they are the recommendation here.

Jimmy Adams

San Diego Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills

San Diego is coming off a huge victory at home against the Seahawks, a team that many believe is the best in the NFL. Now the Chargers have to come down off of their high and travel across the country to play in an early start game against the Bills. The “Spot” clearly points to Buffalo here. The Bills are off to a somewhat surprising 2-0 start. The “Look ahead” line for this game at the LVH/Westgate had the Chargers favored so the market has clearly adjusted.

The Chargers are dead last in the NFL in yards per play differential at -1.6 ypp. That’s a key stat that if not corrected soon, will be very detrimental for this team. The defense has also shown a vulnerability to the big play, a weakness that Buffalo will look to exploit.

The Bills are off a nice win home win against Miami on Sunday. They remain at home which gives them the entire week to prepare for the Chargers without having to worry about any travel. The spread in this game has already moved heavily in the Bills favor and will only continue to rise. I recommend getting in on the Bills as soon as possible.

Sam Martin

Houston Texans at New York Giants
Prediction: Houston Texans

New York's new-look offense has not delivered immediate results, with the Giants scoring just 14 points in each of their first two games while also committing six turnovers combined. We'll fade the Giants here at home and back Houston as they are off to a fast 2-0 SU and ATS start.

We know the Texans haven't had the toughest schedule to start the year, but after a massive losing streak last year, new head coach Bill O'Brien has clearly won this team over and they have looked impressive with a pair of double-digit victories. These two teams confidence levels are miles apart right now, and given the state of New York's offense we don't trust them to keep up with a Houston offense that has run the ball very well. Giants now 0-6 at the betting window in the month of September dating back to last year, and that streak continues with another dismal effort this Sunday!

Sleepyj

New York Giants +2.5

The New York Giants are in a world of trouble if they lose this game. Lat year they started out with a horrible start. They are off to that same start again. Turnovers are killing this team and bad play at the QB spot isn't helping either. The Giants have a decent team and i'm sure they will be up for this game on Sunday. Houston comes in with a 2-0 record but have beat teams that really are not that great either. Still can't take anything away from the Texans, but i think playing on back to back road games will hurt this team. It will be hard to stop JJ Watt with the O-Line here for the Giants. I do however think the secondary for Houston is a bit below average. Eli Manning is due for a good game especially at home. i expect a strong effort out of this entire Giants team. If the Giants just so happen to lose this game, i think the flood gates will be open. I'm not very high on the Giants as i think they will finish last in the NFC. I just like this one spot here. Getting +2.5 points here offers a little extra value at home. I think this is a ugly game and a battle to the end. I'll side with the Giants here. Giants win outright 24-23

Teddy Covers

Seattle / Denver Over 48.5

We all remember what happened when these two teams met in the Super Bowl; a game that was arguably decided on the very first play from scrimmage - a bad snap safety for the Broncos. And we all know how strong the Seahawks home field has been in recent years. Seattle's 20 point win over Green Bay in their opener was just the tip of the iceberg. They've beaten plenty of other elite teams on this field over the last few years, including wins by 26 and 29 points over San Francisco, by 27 over New Orleans, and by 58 over Arizona as part of their truly impressive 13-4 ATS run in the regular season on this field since the start of the 2012 campaign.

The question here is 'What's likely to be different this time around'? My answer to that starts with the offenses for both of these teams. Seattle's offense is much better than it was last year. Denver's offense isn't, but the Broncos certainly are capable of enjoying more success this Sunday than they did on Super Bowl Sunday, especially with the early weather reports showing a mild, sunny day, in sharp contrast to the weather in New Jersey last February.

Let me start with the Seahawks part of the equation. Percy Harvin is healthy and making big plays on a weekly basis. Marshawn Lynch is fresh, especially after only getting six carries in their loss at San Diego last week. Russell Wilson's confidence is sky high, throwing four TD's without an INT so far this year, while completing 68% of his throws in each of their first two games.. Last year's banged up offensive line has transformed into a relatively healthy unit in 2014. And a Seahawks squad that closed out last year on a 7-0 run to the Under prior to the Super Bowl is now 2-0 to the Over this year, a harbinger of things to come.

Peyton Manning and the Broncos offensive line both had miserable performances in the Super Bowl. Much of that was circumstantial. Manning is not the same QB in cold weather. Denver was unprepared for the crowd noise, and they are most assuredly a 'rhythm' offense, not a team that benefitted from the extra week of prep time. We're talking about an elite level NFL offense with a Hall of Fame QB and multiple pro bowl caliber receivers; a team that spent a decent portion of this past offseason focused on this very game.

I'm not expecting John Fox to get outcoached quite so badly here. And with Seattle's defense showing a repeated inability to get off the field on third downs - ranked dead last in the NFL with 55% conversions allowed thusfar - the Broncos are poised to score alot more than eight points this time around!

Randall the Handle

BEST BETS

Cowboys (1-1) at Rams (1-1)

Dallas winning as an underdog last week in convincing fashion has everyone getting back on board. What else is new? This is what the Cowboys do by raising expectations, only to be followed by disappointment. Dallas enters this one with some hurts. Top LB Justin Durant remains out for a couple more weeks. WR Dez Bryant has a bum shoulder. Most significantly, QB Tony Romo is having issues with his recently repaired back and could miss the game. Even if Romo plays, the aggressive St. Louis pass rush could make it into a short afternoon for Romo. The Rams will play it smart as they did in their victory over Tampa Bay last week. Rookie QB Austin Davis made his first NFL start for St. Louis and proved to be poised and efficient. Davis was 22-of-29 for 235 yards with a touchdown, no interceptions. The Rams’ proficient running game should control the tempo of this one and, combined with the stronger defence, good special teams and a precocious young quarterback, St. Louis keeps Dallas consistently inconsistent. TAKING: RAMS even

Packers (1-1) at Lions (1-1)

Let’s face it, the Packers don’t seem right. An opening-game loss at Seattle can be excused, but being totally dominated by their host cannot. Then, having to climb a mountain to overcome a huge deficit at home to scratch out a win over the mediocre Jets leaves some doubts. This assignment is no walk in the park. The Lions are fast and furious when playing indoors on their home turf. We saw it in Week 1 when Detroit clobbered the Giants by a 35-14 count. Green Bay had a similar experience just last year when they were trounced by a 40-10 score here. We’re not sure that the Packers can hold any team down with its weak run defence, a unit currently allowing 176 rushing yards per game. On the offensive side, the Pack continues to have difficulties protecting star QB Aaron Rodgers. The Jets got to Rodgers four times last week, making it seven sacks in two weeks, second-most in the league. Green Bay is getting some respect in the pointspread here, but a team in different colours would be a bigger underdog. TAKING: LIONS -2½

Titans (1-1) at Bengals (2-0)

Another victory this weekend and the Bengals will sport a boastful 3-0 mark heading into their bye week. Cincinnati is very good on both sides of the ball. They have been unbeatable at home, winning 10 straight at Paul Brown dating back to 2012. There is no denying its talent. However, this is the NFL and rarely do you get what you see or see what you get. Things just have a way of balancing out. To their credit, the Bengals have managed to go two straight weeks without a turnover or allowing a sack. No team has equalled that feat since the 2006 Chargers. The pendulum figures to swing back. The Titans are anxious to get back on track after an unsatisfactory home loss to the Cowboys last week. While Tennessee QB Jake Locker runs hot and cold, his Titans produce a balanced attack when limiting mistakes. The Titans are best in this role, taking points when no one is paying attention. With Cincy having next week off and then coming back to test its mettle against the Patriots, it too may fall victim. TAKING: TITANS +7

THE REST

Chargers (1-1) at Bills (2-0)

Go, go, Buffalo! It’s early, but Coach Doug Marrone has this team believing in itself — and that can be half the battle. There is talent on this Buffalo squad. The biggest question mark remains at quarterback, but when you have such a fine complement of runners, EJ Manuel just has to be decent to keep the Bills battling. Can this team that many picked to finish closer to the basement than the ceiling go to 3-0? Why not? They catch the Chargers travelling through three time zones in what may be a letdown spot after knocking off the Super Bowl champs last Sunday. TAKING: BILLS –2½

Redskins (1-1) at Eagles (2-0)

The Eagles have been forced to overcome first-half double-digit deficits in both of their wins. One must wonder if this is a “rope-a-dope” tactic or if they are just slow starters after accumulating just six first-half points to date. We’re guessing it’s the latter and, if so, they had better change that lickety split or trouble is on the horizon. That trouble could be in the form of Washington’s pass rush. Even if Philly can withstand it, do the Eagles really have any receivers to fear? Expect a tight one here, where a straight-up win by the dog would not shock. TAKING: REDSKINS +6½

Texans (2-0) at N.Y. Giants (0-2)

The slumbering Giants are showing few signs of waking up. They’ve scored a meagre 28 points in two games while allowing 60 and they’ve turned the ball over six times so far. Things won’t get easier against this J.J. Watt-led defence. The Giants are attempting to acclimate to a new offensive system, but it is evident that very few of the players are on the same page as QB Eli Manning. Usually reliable Victor Cruz appears confounded, while wideout Rueben Randle is just plain inept. With Houston’s Arian Foster running effectively and the G-Men unlikely to move the ball, this choice is rather logical. TAKING: TEXANS –2

Vikings (1-1) at Saints (0-2)

It’s easy to avoid the Vikings here as the Adrian Peterson issue continues to swirl and the Vikes arrive off a lopsided 30-7 loss in New England. However, we prefer taking prohibitive points against a New Orleans club that has somehow reverted back to its horrific 2012 defence. The Saints are thrilled to be home (17-0 here under Sean Payton) after travelling for the first two weeks, but that doesn’t mean they left their defensive woes on the return flight home from the loss at Cleveland. If Brian Hoyer can march up and down the field, so can Matt Cassel. Saints have covered just seven of their past 17 as 10-or-more favourites. TAKING: VIKINGS +10½

Ravens (1-1) at Browns (1-1)

The Browns aren’t known for making smart hirings, but poaching Mike Pettine from the Bills appears to have changed things. It’s been years since the Browns have been so feisty and while they don’t have household names on offence, some of their new guys and a couple of experienced guys have provided a spark. The Brownies have outscored their opposition 50-27 in the past six quarters, including a win over the Saints and losing on the final play to the Steelers. The Ravens are decent, but not enough to warrant this spot, in a divisional road game where, incidentally, they lost 24-18 a year ago. TAKING: BROWNS +2

Colts (0-2) at Jaguars (0-2)

They have a weak pass rush. They aren’t sure who their feature back is. Their coaching staff appears tentative. No, we’re not talking about the Jaguars. The 0-2 Colts let one slip away last week and we’re not sure they can rebound so quickly, no matter who the opponent might be. Granted, the Jaguars are a dismal bunch that have been going downhill since the first two quarters of this young season, outscored 54-3 since. Still, this is Jacksonville’s first home game and they get the Colts off a short week after a tiring up-tempo and demoralizing defeat. Jags can hang in this one. TAKING: JAGUARS +7

Raiders (0-2) at New England (1-1)

This one requires minimum analysis. The Patriots are pretty good. The Raiders are atrocious. If only it was that simple. There are two converted touchdowns to deal with and, while it’s easy to believe that New England will make minced meat out this visitor, history says otherwise. You see, the Pats have been good for years and they have faced some woeful opponents during that time. However, New England has covered just 10 of its past 30 as a double-digit favourite, seven of 23 here in Foxboro. More recently, the Patriots have managed just two covers in eight tries as 9½-point faves or more. Are the Raiders palatable? No. Are they sensible? Yes. TAKING: RAIDERS +14

49ers (1-1) at Cardinals (2-0)

The Niners are smarting from an uncharacteristic home loss to the Bears after blowing a 20-7 fourth-quarter lead. You know Jim Harbaugh will have the whip out as it has proven effective after a 49ers loss. Under Harbaugh, San Fran has covered 10 of 14 after defeat. Heading to Arizona is rarely a simple challenge, but with QB Carson Palmer still experiencing neck issues, Drew Stanton is likely to get his second straight start. While Stanton did an admirable job last week, it was against the flawed Giants. Niners also are good on the road, covering 9 of their past 11 away games. The Cards are somewhat fortunate to be 2-0. Their luck runs out here. TAKING: 49ers –3

Broncos (2-0) at Seahawks (1-1)

One could understand the appeal of Denver as an underdog considering it’s been 33 games since it’s been slotted on that side of the page. We aren’t taking the bait. We saw how Seattle’s rock-solid defence rattled these Broncos in last year’s 43-8 Super Bowl win. While two games are rarely the same, we have yet to see much improvement in the Broncos, despite their 2-0 start. Seattle is 18-1 in this stadium under QB Russell Wilson and the Seahawks return home off a loss. That defeat makes them even more appealing as it brought them back to earth after flying high for the past year or so. TAKING: SEAHAWKS –4½

Chiefs (0-2) at Dolphins (1-1)

The loss of Miami RB Knowshon Moreno is significant. With the Dolphins’ issues at right guard, being forced to go airborne is not a game plan that we are comfortable with. The Chiefs had a respectable showing at Denver last week and that should help build some confidence heading into this one. Kansas City is also without its star running back, but Knile Davis’ bruising style is more than an adequate replacement. K.C. used to be known for its strong home-field advantage, but since Andy Reid’s arrival, the Chiefs have covered eight of 10 away from Arrowhead. TAKING: CHIEFS +4

Steelers (1-1) at Panthers (2-0)

When will the disrespect stop? The Panthers were 4-point dogs to the Bucs in Week 1 before winning the game. Last week, Carolina was a mere 1½-point choice at home before disposing of the Lions. Carolina lost just one game on this field last year — to the Seahawks on opening day 2013. No team has been able to score more than 20 points on the Panthers in the past nine here. Now in come the Steelers, a team that has been outscored 50-9 in its past six quarters. Yet the oddsmakers feel that Carolina only warrants a field-goal spot? As long as this attitude persists, we’ll continue to line our pockets. TAKING: PANTHERS –3

Bears (1-1) at Jets (1-1)

We’re not anxious to get behind a battered Bears club that will be road dogs in consecutive prime-time games. Chicago pulled off a miraculous win in San Francisco last week, but that exhausting effort, followed by extensive travel, puts this visitor behind the eight ball. The Jets match up well here as they are best when they can run the ball. Meanwhile, Chicago’s run defence appears to be softer than room-temperature butter. Gang Green racked up 110 first-half ground yards against the Packers last week. The Bears are hurting all over the place, including the offensive line, which should allow New York’s pass rush to disrupt things. TAKING: JETS –3

SPORTS WAGERS

SEATTLE -4½ over Denver

Denver has defeated two below average teams and had to hold on for dear life to win them both. With a 24-7 halftime lead and 31-10 lead going to the fourth quarter against the defenseless Colts in Week 1, Denver nearly blew it but held on for a 7-point win. As an 11½-point favorite against the offense-less Chiefs in Week 2, Denver needed a red zone stop in the dying seconds to preserve its win. Two games at home and two scares later, the Broncos offense has not looked nearly as prolific as last year. An argument can be made that the Broncs took their foot of the pedal in Week 1 while last week was a look-ahead game to this one. Both are valid excuses but from what we’ve seen so far out of Denver is a slower, weaker bunch that had two teams on the ropes but did not have the killer instinct to put them away. Peyton Manning has not thrown for over 300 yards yet and it’s not like the Broncos are making it up on the ground, as they rank 24th in rushing. Furthermore, after two home games, Denver’s defense ranks 30th out of 32 teams, which does not bode very well for a road game in Seattle.

Forget Seattle’s loss last week in San Diego. The Bolts played the game of their lives from start to finish, yet Seattle was still in a position to win until midway through the fourth quarter. The Seahawks don’t take losing lightly and an argument can be made that they, too, were looking ahead to this game. Additionally, Seattle’s loss last week was sandwiched between Green Bay in the opener and this Super Bowl rematch. You all remember the opener, don’t you? The Seahawks destroyed Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Rodgers looked uncomfortable the entire game and Seattle made Green Bay look like the Jaguars. That’s not easy to do. The Seahawks boast one of the top offensive and defensive lines in the NFL, as well as what may be the league's deepest collection of skill players. This Seahawks team is so far ahead of Denver in every aspect and they proved so in last year’s Super Bowl wipeout. Focused and coming off a loss, the Seahawks figure to prove it again here.

MIAMI -3½ over Kansas City

We absolutely love this setup. We love that the Chiefs gave the Broncos a scare in Denver last week while the Dolphins were getting their rear ends handed to them in Buffalo. Those two results have caused the Dolphins to be grossly undervalued this week and that prompts us to step in. Miami’s loss last week came after its opening day win against the Patriots. They rallied from a 20-10 halftime deficit to blow away the Patriots in the second half. A letdown last week was almost as inevitable as a rebound this week. The Dolphins are a good team that had a bad week while the same can’t be said for the Chiefs.

Since getting off to that 9-0 start last year against a weak schedule, the Chiefs have gone 2-8 since. K.C. has allowed at least 240 yards through the air in both games and one was to Jake Locker. Evidently the Chiefs never got that memo about the NFL being a passing league. After two weeks full of a need to throw long, the Chiefs are unable to compete using just their passing ability. And that is mostly all they have since Jamaal Charles is out with a high ankle sprain (note - Charles was both the leading rusher AND receiver for the Chiefs last year). The offensive line that was once such a strength now appears to be a liability with four different offensive linemen at the positions. Count us among those applauding the job Andy Reid has done with the Chiefs since the start of last year, but taking the motley crew that is the Chiefs' current roster on the road and beating good teams is too much to ask, especially with a Monday Night home game against the Patriots on deck next week.

N.Y. GIANTS +110 over Houston

The Texans defeated Washington in Week 1 by a score of 17-6 but the Texans were outgained in that game 372-321. Last week the Texans went into Oakland and were outgained in that game also, 364-327. What’s even more alarming in the Texans getting outgained in Oakland is that Houston had the ball for 38:36 while the Raiders had it for just 21:24. How does a team hold a 17 minute edge in time of possession and get out-yarded? Furthermore, the Texans held a 4-0 edge in the turnover department and they were still out-gained by the Raiders. Truth is, if all things were equal, Houston would have been buried by Oakland last week and now this false favorite will play consecutive road games in two different time zones. Texans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is still the same below average QB that he’s always been, averaging a measly 170 yards in the first two games. The Texans are garbage but their 2-0 record days otherwise. We’re definite sellers.

The Giants started last season 0-6 and were dead in the water before Halloween. After blowing a fourth-quarter lead to Arizona, who had to travel cross-country and play a game at 10 a.m. body clock time on a short week, the Giants are once again winless two weeks into the season and are in danger of falling off the cliff once again. The G-men have not looked sharp. They have been sloppy by turning the ball over and taking foolish, untimely penalties. Now the wagons are circling on Tom Coughlin and the Giants stock is low. That said, we get Eli Manning + points at home against Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Texans have been gashed by rookie David Carr (263 through the air) and RG3 and Eli figures to do even more damage. If the Giants clean things up this week, and we’re suggesting they will, they will expose the Texans in much the same way that the Texans were exposed last year. Yeah, it’s a new year but the Texans may actually be worse than they were a year ago. Giants outright and it might not be close.

ARIZONA +140 over San Francisco

Situational betting in the NFL is a key criterion that one must employ over the course of a season. San Francisco opened the year with a misleading win over the Cowboys in Week 1. In Week 2, the 49ers opened their new home with a Sunday Night prime timer against the Bears. San Fran was a city abuzz in anticipation of that huge game and it had all the earmarks of a San Francisco blowout. The Bears had both of their elite wide receivers banged up and game time decisions, their offensive line was a mess and their defense was embarrassed in the first half. But, suddenly a shot to the chest of Jay Cutler that looked as if it might have broken his sternum lit a fire under Chicago and the 49ers ended up blowing a 17-point lead and losing outright. Truth is, the Niners should be and could be 0-2. Now Colin Kaepernick looks out of sync with his receivers and frankly, he’s been regressing for two years now. Dude is quick with his feet but not with his mind, as the poor decisions continue to add up. Kaepernick threw three picks last week and he’s already fumbled twice, losing one of them. San Fran is still viewed as an elite team but injuries, Kaepernick’s play and a meltdown against the Bears has us looking the other way.

The Cardinals are 2-0 and that win over the Chargers looks more impressive after Sad Diego beat the Seahawks. The Cardinals were up against it last week when they travelled across the country to play in New York without Carson Palmer, yet they were able to find a way to win. Drew Stanton didn’t play great but he managed well and didn’t make mistakes on the road. Besides, Palmer is being ruled as a game-time decision so he may play. Incidentally, Palmer passed for 407 yards and two scores on the visiting 49ers last year and this year’s 49ers defense isn’t superior to last year’s bunch. The Cardinals are 2-0 because they play good defense and are successful running the football. When Mike Singletary was coaching the 49'ers, he built a team that could do the same thing but by the 4th year of the Harbaugh regime, Mike's team has all but faded away and Harbaugh’s replacements are beginning to scramble.

Kaepernick can ride the coattails of a good defense and hand the ball off to Gore, who occasionally goes for a scamper himself to gloss over the fact that, despite an arm like a canon, his brain like a pea cannot read a defense quickly enough to figure out how to be a passer. We'll definitely want to exploit both San Fran’s state of mind and Kaepernick’s regression and we're willing to start buying now on the home dog against a team that's not positioned to play its best. We don’t expect Carson too suit up but if he does this line will drop so we’re stepping in now before that announcement is made. Cardinals outright.

Pittsburgh +3 over CAROLINA

We expect to see this number rise by Sunday night so we will wait until much later in the day to pull the trigger here in what is a classic case of buying low and selling high. The Panthers stock is soaring after they defeated the Buccaneers in Week 1 and destroyed the Lions in Week 2. Carolina is 2-0 both straight up and against the spread, which also adds to their increasing stock. Yeah, the defense looks very good but we’re suggesting that Carolina played a brutal Tampa team (they won 20-14) and they caught the Lions in a very favorable spot. Let’s not ignore that Cam Newton was sacked five times last week and that he has an entirely new set of receivers. Newton can’t run either, (just 19 yards last week), as his ankle is still a little tender and he’s been instructed not to run. The Panthers are 2-0 because their defense has stepped up big time but that’s playing with fire and these Steelers are precisely the type of team that can come in here and win outright.

Pittsburgh’s stock is low after they blew a 24-3 halftime lead against Cleveland in its opener and were subsequently buried in Baltimore, 26-6 in Week 2. Pay no attention to either, as Pittsburgh racked up over 500 yards against the Brownies and moved with ease against Baltimore. The Steelers racked up 157 yards on the ground in Baltimore but they turned the ball over deep in Ravens territory twice and at their own 20 yard line to take away all momentum that they had. By the end of the third quarter the Steelers were frustrated and really didn’t stand a chance but in the first three quarters, they were clearly the better team. The Steelers have moved the ball very effectively in seven of their eight quarters played so far. They’ve also had three extra days of preparation for this one and get a couple of healthy bodies back in wide receiver Lance Moore and defensive tackle Steve McLendon. Very rarely are the Steelers undervalued because they’ve been such a huge public team over the past few decades but that’s the case in Week 3 and that makes us buyers. We’re calling the Steelers outright and there’s a very good chance we’ll play them on the money line come Sunday.

Wunderdog

Kansas City @ Miami
Pick: Kansas City +4

The Dolphins missed out on a golden opportunity last week. They upset New England in week one and then went to Buffalo and failed to show up. It has kind of been the way this team has operated in recent years, occasionally looking like a playoff team and more often than that, leaving you scratching your head. The Dolphins finished 11-5 back in the 2008-09 season, but have not had a winning record since. One of the biggest reasons is the that they beat teams like New England at home, but in games they should win like this one, they are 12-33-1 ATS when they face a team with a losing road record. Well, the Chiefs fit the bill at 0-1 on the road with injuries mounting already. After starting last season at 9-0, the Chiefs are starring down the barrel at 0-3, so you know that they will bring it here or their season could already have gotten away from them in three weeks. The Chiefs have played as well as anyone on the road where they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 and have enough to play this one down to the wire where the points will be huge. Also, Andy Reid is 43-23 ATS in his coaching career as a road underdog. Grab the points on the Chiefs.

King Creole

Colts / Jaguars Under 45

We're low in the AFC SOUTH battle between the Jags and Colts. It's also a 2** Play on our gameday service. After all, this Jacksonville / Indianapolis SERIES has gone a perfect 0-6 O/U in the last 3 years, with an average of only 34.7 combined PPG. You always wanna go UNDER in this division... when the road team is favored. AFC SOUTH division games have gone a perfect 0-8 O/U in LY when the road team (Indy) is favored by 4 > pts.

At last look, Indy was laying a FULL TD in this game. 2-11 O/U L2Y: All home underdogs of+7 > pts (Jax) when the OU line is 47 < pts. These games have gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U in division play. The Jaguars have started the season with losses by 17 and 31 points. That's a signal for a low-scoring outcome. 1-8 O/U L2Y: All underdogs of pts each... when the OU line is < 54 points.

The Colts come in off their Monday night games versus the Eagles. DIVISION road teams (Colts) have gone 4-15-1 O/U since 2008 playing off a MONDAY game. These teams have gone a 1-9 O/U as road FAVORITES. These 2 teams have gone a combined 2-7-1 O/U in GAME THREES in the last 5 years (39.5 ppg). Final score: 23 to 17.

DAVE COKIN

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
PLAY: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +7

I’ve already lost count of the number of times I’ve heard the following this week: This is a must win game for the Colts.

I love hearing that stuff. Not that I’m disagreeing with the assessment that this is an absolutely huge game for Indy. It most certainly is exactly that, as an 0-3 start would be, if not disastrous, very bad news at the very least.

But must win has never meant will win, and my experience is that the burden of high expectations is not the best thing in the world for any team in any sport, especially when said team is not playing well.

The Colts are struggling. The running game is ordinary, the offensive line play has been spotty and the Colts defense is apparently even worse than some pessimists thought it might be. Andrew Luck is a brilliant talent at QB, but he’s not getting much help right now.

As for Jacksonville, they’ve been astonishingly awful since getting ahead of the Eagles by a 17-0 count in Week One. There was certainly nothing positive to garner from the blowout loss at Washington last Sunday. This team is just plain lousy on offense, and I don’t see much chance of that changing to any extent this season. But in spite of the last six quarters, I’m not as down on the Jaguars defense. I don’t think it’s a high level outfit, but I’d probably rate the Jags stop unit just a little below league average. Their biggest problem might end up being that they get worn down because the offense can’t sustain drives.

I’m not about to try and sell the Jaguars here as a team I’m wild about backing. Their running game is an absolute joke, and anyone who’s followed me over the years knows how vital rushing stats are to me. It makes no difference to me how the game has evolved over the years. It’s still a constant that teams that run well and defend the ground game successfully win football games.

This is mostly anti-Colts. Bad defensive teams make bad favorites, especially on the road, and even more especially in divisional duels. And right now Indianapolis is a very bad defensive football team. I would expect they’ll be able to amass some better stats on that side of the ball this Sunday. But I also can see the lowly Jaguars being able to get some things down on offense.

I can’t call for an outright upset, but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility. However, I do feel pretty confident the Jaguars will give the Colts a good game and that’s pretty much all they need to do to have a great chance to cover this number. I’ll grab the TD with the Jaguars to get me paid on Sunday.

SPORTS WAGERS

SEATTLE -4½ over Denver

Denver has defeated two below average teams and had to hold on for dear life to win them both. With a 24-7 halftime lead and 31-10 lead going to the fourth quarter against the defenseless Colts in Week 1, Denver nearly blew it but held on for a 7-point win. As an 11½-point favorite against the offense-less Chiefs in Week 2, Denver needed a red zone stop in the dying seconds to preserve its win. Two games at home and two scares later, the Broncos offense has not looked nearly as prolific as last year. An argument can be made that the Broncs took their foot of the pedal in Week 1 while last week was a look-ahead game to this one. Both are valid excuses but from what we’ve seen so far out of Denver is a slower, weaker bunch that had two teams on the ropes but did not have the killer instinct to put them away. Peyton Manning has not thrown for over 300 yards yet and it’s not like the Broncos are making it up on the ground, as they rank 24th in rushing. Furthermore, after two home games, Denver’s defense ranks 30th out of 32 teams, which does not bode very well for a road game in Seattle.

Forget Seattle’s loss last week in San Diego. The Bolts played the game of their lives from start to finish, yet Seattle was still in a position to win until midway through the fourth quarter. The Seahawks don’t take losing lightly and an argument can be made that they, too, were looking ahead to this game. Additionally, Seattle’s loss last week was sandwiched between Green Bay in the opener and this Super Bowl rematch. You all remember the opener, don’t you? The Seahawks destroyed Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Rodgers looked uncomfortable the entire game and Seattle made Green Bay look like the Jaguars. That’s not easy to do. The Seahawks boast one of the top offensive and defensive lines in the NFL, as well as what may be the league's deepest collection of skill players. This Seahawks team is so far ahead of Denver in every aspect and they proved so in last year’s Super Bowl wipeout. Focused and coming off a loss, the Seahawks figure to prove it again here.

MIAMI -3½ over Kansas City

We absolutely love this setup. We love that the Chiefs gave the Broncos a scare in Denver last week while the Dolphins were getting their rear ends handed to them in Buffalo. Those two results have caused the Dolphins to be grossly undervalued this week and that prompts us to step in. Miami’s loss last week came after its opening day win against the Patriots. They rallied from a 20-10 halftime deficit to blow away the Patriots in the second half. A letdown last week was almost as inevitable as a rebound this week. The Dolphins are a good team that had a bad week while the same can’t be said for the Chiefs.

Since getting off to that 9-0 start last year against a weak schedule, the Chiefs have gone 2-8 since. K.C. has allowed at least 240 yards through the air in both games and one was to Jake Locker. Evidently the Chiefs never got that memo about the NFL being a passing league. After two weeks full of a need to throw long, the Chiefs are unable to compete using just their passing ability. And that is mostly all they have since Jamaal Charles is out with a high ankle sprain (note - Charles was both the leading rusher AND receiver for the Chiefs last year). The offensive line that was once such a strength now appears to be a liability with four different offensive linemen at the positions. Count us among those applauding the job Andy Reid has done with the Chiefs since the start of last year, but taking the motley crew that is the Chiefs' current roster on the road and beating good teams is too much to ask, especially with a Monday Night home game against the Patriots on deck next week.

ARIZONA +140 over San Francisco

Situational betting in the NFL is a key criterion that one must employ over the course of a season. San Francisco opened the year with a misleading win over the Cowboys in Week 1. In Week 2, the 49ers opened their new home with a Sunday Night prime timer against the Bears. San Fran was a city abuzz in anticipation of that huge game and it had all the earmarks of a San Francisco blowout. The Bears had both of their elite wide receivers banged up and game time decisions, their offensive line was a mess and their defense was embarrassed in the first half. But, suddenly a shot to the chest of Jay Cutler that looked as if it might have broken his sternum lit a fire under Chicago and the 49ers ended up blowing a 17-point lead and losing outright. Truth is, the Niners should be and could be 0-2. Now Colin Kaepernick looks out of sync with his receivers and frankly, he’s been regressing for two years now. Dude is quick with his feet but not with his mind, as the poor decisions continue to add up. Kaepernick threw three picks last week and he’s already fumbled twice, losing one of them. San Fran is still viewed as an elite team but injuries, Kaepernick’s play and a meltdown against the Bears has us looking the other way.

The Cardinals are 2-0 and that win over the Chargers looks more impressive after San Diego beat the Seahawks. The Cardinals were up against it last week when they travelled across the country to play in New York without Carson Palmer, yet they were able to find a way to win. Drew Stanton didn’t play great but he managed well and didn’t make mistakes on the road. Besides, Palmer is being ruled as a game-time decision so he may play. Incidentally, Palmer passed for 407 yards and two scores on the visiting 49ers last year and this year’s 49ers defense isn’t superior to last year’s bunch. The Cardinals are 2-0 because they play good defense and are successful running the football. When Mike Singletary was coaching the 49'ers, he built a team that could do the same thing but by the 4th year of the Harbaugh regime, Mike's team has all but faded away and Harbaugh’s replacements are beginning to scramble.

Kaepernick can ride the coattails of a good defense and hand the ball off to Gore, who occasionally goes for a scamper himself to gloss over the fact that, despite an arm like a canon, his brain like a pea cannot read a defense quickly enough to figure out how to be a passer. We'll definitely want to exploit both San Fran’s state of mind and Kaepernick’s regression and we're willing to start buying now on the home dog against a team that's not positioned to play its best. We don’t expect Carson too suit up but if he does this line will drop so we’re stepping in now before that announcement is made. Cardinals outright.

N.Y. GIANTS +110 over Houston

The Texans defeated Washington in Week 1 by a score of 17-6 but the Texans were outgained in that game 372-321. Last week the Texans went into Oakland and were outgained in that game also, 364-327. What’s even more alarming in the Texans getting outgained in Oakland is that Houston had the ball for 38:36 while the Raiders had it for just 21:24. How does a team hold a 17 minute edge in time of possession and get out-yarded? Furthermore, the Texans held a 4-0 edge in the turnover department and they were still out-gained by the Raiders. Truth is, if all things were equal, Houston would have been buried by Oakland last week and now this false favorite will play consecutive road games in two different time zones. Texans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is still the same below average QB that he’s always been, averaging a measly 170 yards in the first two games. The Texans are garbage but their 2-0 record days otherwise. We’re definite sellers.

The Giants started last season 0-6 and were dead in the water before Halloween. After blowing a fourth-quarter lead to Arizona, who had to travel cross-country and play a game at 10 a.m. body clock time on a short week, the Giants are once again winless two weeks into the season and are in danger of falling off the cliff once again. The G-men have not looked sharp. They have been sloppy by turning the ball over and taking foolish, untimely penalties. Now the wagons are circling on Tom Coughlin and the Giants stock is low. That said, we get Eli Manning + points at home against Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Texans have been gashed by rookie David Carr (263 through the air) and RG3 and Eli figures to do even more damage. If the Giants clean things up this week, and we’re suggesting they will, they will expose the Texans in much the same way that the Texans were exposed last year. Yeah, it’s a new year but the Texans may actually be worse than they were a year ago. Giants outright and it might not be close.

Pittsburgh +3 over CAROLINA

We expect to see this number rise by Sunday night so we will wait until much later in the day to pull the trigger here in what is a classic case of buying low and selling high. The Panthers stock is soaring after they defeated the Buccaneers in Week 1 and destroyed the Lions in Week 2. Carolina is 2-0 both straight up and against the spread, which also adds to their increasing stock. Yeah, the defense looks very good but we’re suggesting that Carolina played a brutal Tampa team (they won 20-14) and they caught the Lions in a very favorable spot. Let’s not ignore that Cam Newton was sacked five times last week and that he has an entirely new set of receivers. Newton can’t run either, (just 19 yards last week), as his ankle is still a little tender and he’s been instructed not to run. The Panthers are 2-0 because their defense has stepped up big time but that’s playing with fire and these Steelers are precisely the type of team that can come in here and win outright.

Pittsburgh’s stock is low after they blew a 24-3 halftime lead against Cleveland in its opener and were subsequently buried in Baltimore, 26-6 in Week 2. Pay no attention to either, as Pittsburgh racked up over 500 yards against the Brownies and moved with ease against Baltimore. The Steelers racked up 157 yards on the ground in Baltimore but they turned the ball over deep in Ravens territory twice and at their own 20 yard line to take away all momentum that they had. By the end of the third quarter the Steelers were frustrated and really didn’t stand a chance but in the first three quarters, they were clearly the better team. The Steelers have moved the ball very effectively in seven of their eight quarters played so far. They’ve also had three extra days of preparation for this one and get a couple of healthy bodies back in wide receiver Lance Moore and defensive tackle Steve McLendon. Very rarely are the Steelers undervalued because they’ve been such a huge public team over the past few decades but that’s the case in Week 3 and that makes us buyers. We’re calling the Steelers outright and there’s a very good chance we’ll play them on the money line come Sunday.