Tony Stoffo
San Diego Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills -1
Free Play - San Diego at Buffalo The Chargers have started the season on a high note losing by just 1 point on the road against the Cardinals, and then handily beating the world champs at home last week. And the public have jumped all over them this week with 64% of all bets placed in this spot against the Bills. However the odds makers have moved this line the other way meaning some blocks of sharp money has landed on Buffalo. So let's follow this strong money move here and release a play on the Bills today. Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on turf. Chargers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 3. Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September. Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. Buffalo minus this small number the play here.
Joe D'Amico
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
In a rematch of Super Bowl 48 and what could very well be the matchup for Super Bowl 49, the 2-0 Broncos go into Seattle to face the 1-1 Seahawks. Don't think that because Rivers and Gates had success last week against the Seattle "D" that Pete Carrol and his quick pass-rushers aren't looking at this game as a statement-maker. Seattle is a much different team at home where Russell Wilson is 18-1 SU (14-4-1 ATS). Wilson, his workhorse, Marshawn Lynch running the ball (146 YR and 2 TD's), a fired-up "D", and the loudest stadium in the country his side tell me the Seahawks are the play. I think this will be closer than 43-8 but I must side with Seattle.
Marc Lawrence
San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Pick: Buffalo Bills
Edges - Bills: 3-0 ATS in this series; and 5-1 ATS home with Marrone. Chargers: 1-8 ATS away vs AFC East opponents; and 2-8 ATS after Seahawks. With NFL teams who upset the defending Super Bowl champions a paltry 6-29 SU and 7-28 ATS away versus opponents off a win in their next game, and the Chargers on the East Coast in an early start, we recommend a 1-unit play on Buffalo.
Jack Jones
Washington Redskins +6.5
The Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) have had two huge comebacks for victories. They came from 17 down to beat Jacksonville 34-17, and 14 down to defeat Indianapolis 30-27. The Washington Redskins (1-1) did not play well in a 6-17 loss to the Texans on the road in their opener, but bounced back with a 41-10 win over the Jaguars last week.
The Redskins are vastly improved over a year ago. I actually believe that the Robert Griffin III injury is a blessing in disguise because Kirk Cousins is the better quarterback. He had the second-best passer rating in the league last week in the win over Jacksonville. Cousins went 22 of 33 passing for 250 yards and two touchdowns without any picks to lead the team once Griffin III went down.
What I’ve been most impressed about the Redskins thus far is their improvement on defense. They are only giving up 13.5 points and 232.0 yards per game on the season. They registered a whopping 10 sacks against the Jaguars last week and lead the league in that department. It’s amazing what this stop unit can do when healthy, which wasn’t the case last season.
Indeed, the Redskins went just 3-13 last season, yet they hung tough in both of their losses to the Eagles. They lost 27-33 at home and 16-24 on the road. They put up an average of over 400 yards per game of total offense in the two losses as well.
They should have no problem moving the football on an Eagles defense that is really banged up right now. Mychal Kendricks went out against the Colts last week with an injury and probably won’t be back this week. Najee Goode is on the IR with a torn pectoral muscle. These two linebackers are irreplaceable.
The Eagles have certainly looked vulnerable in their first two games. They trailed 17-0 to the Jaguars before rallying in the second half for a victory. They were also behind 20-6 against the Colts before rallying for a 30-27 win.
They used a ton of energy in trying to make that comeback on Monday Night Football. Now, they will be on a short week against a Redskins team that only had to go through the motions in the second half against the Jaguars and will be plenty rested because of it.
Plays against home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) – team with a poor scoring defense last season – allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS since 1983. The Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Eagles are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 home games.
Steve Janus
Dallas Cowboys -1
The Cowboys bounced back in a big way after that ugly loss at home to the 49ers in Week 1, as they went on the road and defeated a good Tennessee team rather easily 26-10. There was a lot of talk coming into the season of just how bad this Dallas team was going to be, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but that hasn't been the case at all. Dallas comes in ranked in the top half of the league against both the run (13th) and the pass (14th).
Hard to not like that motivated Cowboys defense against a St Louis offense that is playing with backup quarterback Shaun Hill. The Rams haven't been impressive at all in their two games. They've scored just 25 points this season and are 16th in passing (233 ypg) and 23rd in rushing (95.5 ypg). I just don't see St Louis being able to score enough to keep up with the high-powered Cowboys' offense that hasn't hit its stride yet.
One of the big keys here for Dallas is they have arguably the best offensive line in the game, which is going to allow them to run the football and wear down the Rams strong front. With the offense not being able to sustain long drives, this St Louis defense figures to be on the field a lot and I look for the Cowboys to really open this one up in the 2nd half.
Chip Chirimbes
Houston Texans vs. NY Giants
Play: NY Giants +1
Well, I'm either going to look like a complete idiot or the least a persistent bastard for using the hapless Giants this week. Okay here we have it an 0-2 team favored over a 2-0 teams makes me scratch my head. Especially when I see the Giants are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games in September but, I also see the Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven on fieldturf. New York gets into the WIN column Sunday.
Jimmy Boyd
Philadelphia Eagles -5½
I'm taking the Eagles to cover at home over the Redskins. Philadelphia has yet to play a complete game and I believe it's got them undervalued at home in a division matchup against Washington. The Redskins are getting some love here after that impressive win over the Jaguars, but I'm not sold on this team being a serious contender. That doesn't cover up their ugly loss to the Texans in Week 1, where they managed to score just 6 points.
Last year the Eagles offense had no problem moving the ball against the Redskins defense. Philly put up 443 yards and 33 points in the first meeting and 402 yards and 24 points in the second matchup. They showed they could move the ball both through the air and on the ground. They had 263 rushing yards in one game and 276 yards passing in the other.
I know Washington's defense has looked strong early, but that's largely due to who they have played. Houston has been one of the most conservative offenses through the first two weeks and there's no explanation needed for Jacksonville. They have been one of the worst offensive teams for a several years.
Another big key that is getting overlooked is the Eagles are a better defensive team than they get credit for and will be going up against a Redskins team that lost starting quarterback RGII and could potentially be without wide out DeSean Jackson, who is questionable with a shoulder injury.
Taking the points with Washington has not been a wise investment lately. The Redskins are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games when listed as an underdog. Washington is also just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 versus the NFC, 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 250 or less total yards, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 following a SU win.
Alex Smart
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +7½
The 0-2 Jags will play their first home game of the season this Sunday and Im expecting they will be very ready to compete in front of their own fans. I know Indy really needs a win after a 0-2 start, but on a short weeks rest, and in a letdown situation after Mondays hurtful 30-27 loss to Philly, might not be the quality bet many might think. I personally like a first half wager on Jacksonville, with the mind set , that they will start strong (1/2 unit wager). At +7 a 1/2 unit wager on Jacksonville, is my recommendation and just 1/4 unit at +6.5. If your going to play this game, wait towards kick off (weekend)- as the best possible numbers may be available with the influx of public money at that time.
Bill Biles
Dallas Cowboys vs. St. Louis Rams
Play: St. Louis Rams +102
I like the Rams to win this game outright. If you look at the 2 teams you would think that Dallas would be Favorited by 3-7 points, but it is such a low number. Vegas is trying to get people to bit on the Cowboys. Im not falling for it I like the Rams at home to win this one and get to 2-1 on the season.
Ross Benjamin
Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: New Orleans Saints -9½
It doesn't matter to me whether the Vikings have Adrian Peterson available or not. I'm of the opinion that by early in the 2nd half they will become one-dimensional offensively, resulting from having to play from a better than 2-touchdown deficit, and they'll have to abandon the run. When that occurs, Matt Cassel will be asked to carry the load, and we saw what happened last week (4-interceptions) against New England when he was asked to do so.
The Saints come off two gut wrenching losses on the road to open the season. They lost in overtime 37-34 at Atlanta in the season opener, and then on the final play of regulation time last week in a 26-24 defeat at the hands of the Cleveland Browns. The Saints have gone a terrific 14-1 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 12.0 or less following a straight up loss since 9/28/2010, and that includes a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS in the last 7, with an average margin of victory being a whopping 22.2 points per game. This is also a New Orleans team that's went a perfect 8-0 at home in 2013, and covered in 7 of those 8-games.
In case you're wondering, any NFL home favorite that comes off 2 road losses in a row, and each came by 3-points or less, has gone 10-2 SU&ATS since 1980. It's a rare occurrence for sure, and the sample size leaves a lot to be desired, but nevertheless, an extremely profitable situation for the home favorite.
Any home favorite of 3.5 or more, coming off back-to-back straight up losses as an away favorite, has gone 17-5 ATS since 1980. Play on the New Orleans Saints minus the points.
Bryan Power
San Francisco vs. Arizona
Pick: San Francisco
Though I played against the 49ers last week (won w/ Bears outright Sunday night!), there have been two situations they have consistently excelled in under HC Jim Harbaugh. The first, which they obviously fall into here, is off a SU loss. The second is laying points on the road. I'm not a normal advocate for road chalk, but given the circumstances I'll make an exception here w/ San Francisco visiting Arizona.
Off a loss in the Harbaugh era, the Niners are 9-2 straight up and 7-3-1 against the spread. Anyone who watched last Sunday night knows that they seemed to be in complete control of the game against Chicago, at one point leading 17-3. They allowed three fourth quarter touchdowns in the loss and the key statistic was a -4 turnover differential. Arizona is a team they should bounce back against as the Cardinals are lucky to be 2-0, needing fourth quarter rallies to win both of their games. San Francisco has gone 5-1 in this NFC West rivalry the last three years and won both games last year. Cards QB Carson Palmer still may not play here.
Also, Harbaugh is 11-4-1 ATS in the road favorite role. The margin here is so slim that you'd have to think the SU win would equal a cover as well and seeing as how I can't see the Niners dropping B2B games, they are the recommendation here.
Matt Fargo
Green Bay vs. Detroit
Pick: Green Bay
The Packers have not looked as good as predicted coming into the season as they were beaten badly at Seattle to open the season and had to recover from a big deficit last week against the Jets. Now Green Bay comes in as the underdog at Detroit, the first time that has been the case against the Lions when Aaron Rodgers has been the starter. Overall, he is 9-1 against Detroit as the starting quarterback with the only loss coming when he left the game in the first half with an injury in 2010 at Ford Field. The two times Green Bay was getting points was when Matt Flynn was at quarterback, the last taking place in the most recent meeting a year ago in which the Packers were smashed by 30 points. Bring revenge into play as well as the fact that Rodgers has won 16 of his last 18 NFC North game and we will gladly take the points on Sunday. Detroit looked great in beating New York two weeks ago but looked equally bad last week against Carolina. Returning home can only help but the Lions are just 5-9 in their last 14 games as a home favorite while going just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a loss of more than 14 points. Here we play on underdogs or pickems after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games going up against an opponent after a loss by 10 or more points. This situation is 58-27 ATS (68.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, under head coach Mike McCarthy, the Packers are 26-5 ATS in their 31 games coming off a non-conference game. He is 14-2 against Detroit all time and of the 14 wins over Detroit, eight have been decided by 10 points or more, including four by over 20 points.
NFL Predictions
49ers / Cardinals Under 42
Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers have to be reeling after blowing a big lead against the Chicago Bears last week in primetime. Kaepernick did not look good at all, allowing the Bears to come back in the game late by throwing two interceptions at a critical point in the game. He simply isn’t going through his reads and seeing the field effectively. Kaepernick is zeroing in on his go-to option without reading the field much. The Bears aren’t a great defense, not even good in my view, but he will face a great defense against the Cardinals this week. The 49ers’ defense allowed 28 points, but that was due to the offenses careless mistakes setting the Bears up with glorious field positions. Drew Stanton has been confirmed as the starter for the Cardinals this week. It is nearly impossible to run the ball on the ‘Niners, as the Cowboys and Bears found out the last two weeks. They’re giving up only 86.5 yards per game on the ground. In 2013 they were 4th against the rush. Who was 1st? Look on the other side of the ball, the Arizona Cardinals. Kaepernick and Stanton are going to be in uncomfortable positions, where they’ll need to win the game with their arms. Neither quarterback are built for that. I don’t see many opportunities to gain yardage on the ground, though, so they may have to. This has the makings of a low-scoring, defensive battle in Arizona. Take a look at the UNDER 42 between the 49ers and Cardinals.
Jeffrey James
Lions / Packers Over 52.5
Who is going to stop anyone in this game? The Lions weakest position is in the secondary to begin with and now they are crushed at that position with injuries. Not a good situation going up against the Packers offense. The Detroit offense can score as well - especially at home - and especially against the weak Packers defense. Remember last Thanksgiving? The Lions hung 40 points on Green Bay in Detroit. Look for the scoreboard operator to put in for overtime pay in this one.
EZWINNERS
San Diego Chargers +2.5
San Diego is coming off of a huge upset against the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks and as they we're playing that game I was already thinking ahead to this week's game at Buffalo. Everyone is thinking letdown spot, long travel and an early kickoff will spell a loss for the Chargers, but I don't believe so. San Diego needs this win to keep pace with Denver since the Chargers blew their season opener at Arizona. Buffalo is off to a great start, but the Bills offense has struggled in the red zone settling for too many field goals and they have also had special teams issues. Chargers quarterback Phillip Rivers is playing well and Antonio Gates looks to be rejuvenated. I think the Chargers will find plenty of holes in the Buffalo secondary like Chicago did, but I don't expect Rivers to make the mistakes with the ball that Cutler did in their opening loss to Buffalo. Take the points.
Washington Redskins +6
I like this spot for Redskins catching a full touchdown against Philadelphia. The Eagles are 2-0 straight up and against the spread as they rallied from two touchdown defecates in the first two weeks of the season against the Jags and Colts. Washington lost their starting quarterback RGIII to an ankle injury last week, but I think Kirk Cousins is the much better fit for this team as does many Redskin insiders. I expect Cousins to have a lot of success this week and going forward as he has better weapons around him this season than what he had in his limited playing time last year. Not to be overlooked here is the Washington defense. I think the Redskins have an underrated defensive unit that is much better than the defense that Philly puts on the field. The Skins held the Jags to 148 total yards last week. The same Jacksonville offense that rolled up 306 total yards at Philly in week one. Take the points.
New York Giants Pk
The Giants beat themselves once again last week against the Cardinals, but I'm giving them another shot this week against the Texans. Houston is off to a 2-0 start, but I'm still not a believer. The Texans did just enough in week one at home against the Redskins and struggling RGIII at quarterback to get the win and the cover. Last week they flew to the west coast and covered as a small favorite against a Raiders team that looks to be pretty bad. Now this week they fly to the east coast to be a road favorite. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has played well thanks to the running game of the Texans being effective. I think the Giants can control the run and force Fitzpatrick to beat them throwing. Giants quarterback Eli Manning also has his issues, but I think New York makes enough plays to win this game. Play on the Giants.