Prophet Plays
Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: New Orleans Saints -10
4 Star Free Play on New Orleans at home against Minnesota. Desperation has set in for the Saints after consecutive road losses to the Falcons and Browns to start the season. Lucky for them they're playing their home opener today against a Minnesota team minus Adrian Peterson. New Orleans has won 17 straight home games (16-0-1 ATS) with Drew Brees AND Sean Payton on the field (obviously excluding the 2012 suspension season). The Saints not only went 8-0 SU at the Superdome last year, but they averaged 34 points a game - nearly double their road number - and outgained their foes 443-to-270 in total yards. They also gave up just 15.6 points on average, never allowing more than 20 in a single outing. Minnesota, in its first game without Peterson, lost at home to New England last Sunday, 30-7. Matt Cassel was predictably awful, getting intercepted four times. In fact, he was 0-for-8 with 3 picks when his passes traveled more than 10 yards. Then again when your team's offense is built around a power running game and that running back is out of action, what can you expect?
Rob Vinciletti
Colts vs. Jaguars
Play: Under 45
This game fits a solid totals system that dates to 1980 and plays to the under for game 3 teams that are off back to back straight up and ats losses that allowed 30 or more points in the first 2 games. Both of these teams allowed 30+ and this should be much lower scoring as the last 4 in the series have played under and all with less than 40 points scored. The system above is 80% and the Colts are 9 of 11 under in division games and 8 straight under as conference favs of 5 or more. The Jags are 7 of 8 under at home vs a division opponent. The Colts have gone under the last 6 times if they did not have a 20+ yard catch last game . Look for this one to stay under today.
Andy Iskoe
Tennessee +7
Prior to losing to San Diego in last season''s Playoffs, Cincinnati was a perfect 8-0 both SU and ATS at home and picked right up with their 24-10 win last week over Atlanta. Tennessee may have been a bit overconfident following a dominating opening win at Kansas City and was severely outplayed last week by Dallas, losing 26-10 in their home opener. Cincy WR Green was banged up in the win over the Falcons and is questionable for this contest. Even with a healthy Green, this line may be a bit over inflated against a team that is improved over last season. Although they've not made the Playoffs the last 5 seasons, the Titans never really sank that deeply in the standings. First season coach Whisenhunt needed only 2 seasons to take a long moribund Arizona franchise to the Super Bowl and he has already made changes that suggest solid improvement from his new team.
Rocketman
Washington @ Philadelphia
Play: Washington +6.5
The Washington Redskins travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles on Sunday afternoon. Washington is 1-1 on the season while Philadelphia is 2-0 overall this year. Washington offense is averaging 410.5 yards per game this year while their defense has been solid allowing only 232 total yards per game. Philadelphia is 4-13 ATS last 3 years at home. Washington is allowing only 13.5 points per game overall this year. Washington is 6-1 ATS last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game. Philadelphia is 7-21-1 ATS last 29 home games. Road team is 10-4-1 ATS last 15 meetings in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Washington today!
Bruce Marshall
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers
Don't bury the Brewers quite yet. Although their playoff pulse is faint, Milwaukee continues to put forth tremendous pitching efforts such as Saturday's 1-0 win at PNC Park behind Matt Garza. Wily Peralta has been another of the Brewers staff that has pitched well altely, as he is 1-1 with a 2.75 ERA over his last three starts after allowing two runs in seven innings of Milwaukee's 3-2, 12-inning win over St. Louis on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Bucs starter Vance Worley is 0-3 with a 5.48 ERA in four career starts against the Brewers.
Golden Retriever
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
Pick: Houston Astros
The schedule of final half month is sort of torture for the Mariners, not only they are on the 11-game trip, but they also have to travel all around the state, from Seattle to Los Angels to Houston, prepare the next stop to Toronto then fly back home in the end of the season, if they cannot win the playoff ticket. They carried a shaky pitching stuff on the road, both Hisashi Iwakuma, Roenis Elias, Chris Young were failed to complete four innings in their recent starts. Iwakuma in particular haven't done that in 3 of his last 5, allowed 5, 3, 3, 4, 7 during the stretch. This is the last home game for the Astros, Collin McHugh has won six consecutive decisions, and haven't issued a walk in any of his last four outings while fanned 25 batters in 29 1/3 frames. Iwakuma can pitch that kind of number in mint condition, but he is certainly far away.
Jim Feist
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
A pair of conservative offenses with hard hitting defenses meet. Pittsburgh struggled on offense the last game at Baltimore getting 6 points and this is their second straight road game. The defense is 7th against the pass and held the Ravens to 5-12 on third down, and the Browns to 2-11 on third down. Despite failing to cover in each of its first two games this season, the Steelers are still 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 6-2 ATS when playing their last eight games on grass. But what I like most in this matchup is the fact that the Steelers have covered the last five meetings between these clubs. The Steelers have also been very efficient rushing the ball with a 4.9 yards per rush clip this season. Add to that the 5th best passing offense right now and the Steelers should be able to be there at the end. In their first two games the Steelers were favored, but here we are getting points and that will make all the difference.
Jesse Schule
Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams
Pick: Dallas Cowboys
I am going with the Cowboys again this week. Even though they disappointed in a home loss to San Francisco in Week 1, they still came out of that game with plenty of positives. They had more total yards, more first downs, and an edge in time of possession. They also held the 49ers scoreless in the second half. Last week against Tennessee, we saw a power running game and a strong defense dominate an inferior opponent on the road. I think last week's game gives us a more accurate look at what this team is all about. With DeMarco Murray running all over the opposition, we should expect a similar showing here in St. Louis this week. It's important to note that Murray has punished the Rams throughout his career, averaging 218 yards per game against them. The Rams were expected to be tough defensively this year, but there has been little indication of that in the first two weeks. They allowed Buccaneers backup Bobby Rainey to run for 144 yards on 22 carries last week. Dallas QB Tony Romo still seems to be suffering rust (or lingering effects from off-season surgery), as he hasn't looked sharp in the first two games. It's reasonable to expect him to work himself back into shape as the season progresses, but regardless the visitors have the edge at the quarterback position with the Rams starting Austin Davis (third stringer). If you though throwing for 235 yards in his debut against the Bucs was a good sign, perhaps you will be forced to reconsider after the Bucs were exposed in a 52-14 loss on Thursday night.
Dave Price
Washington Redskins +6
The Eagles have been a poor investment at home where they are a dismal 7-21-1 ATS their last 29 games, and they are being overvalued here considering they have had one less day to prepare. I also expect Washington to be little more motivated as it seeks revenge for losing both of last season's meetings. Washington has been a strong investment on the road in this spread range, going 37-21 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7.0 points since 1992. The Redskins are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game and 5-2-2 ATS in their last nine games following a win of more than 14 points. The road team has been the play in this matchup as it is on a 10-4-1 ATS run. The Redskins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in Philadelphia. You want to fade home favorites that allowed 24.0 ppg or more last season following a game where they combined for 50 points or more. Doing so has produced a 23-3 ATS mark since 1983.
Kyle Hunter
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Miami Dolphins -3½
The Miami Dolphins lost last week in Buffalo, but I think they'll get back on track with a win Sunday against a Chiefs team that isn't very good right now. The Dolphins defense is underrated by many, and I believe they'll have a very solid season. Jamaal Charles might play, but he is dinged up. D'Anthony Thomas won't play on offense and Eric Berry won't play on defense for the Chiefs. Berry is the leader of this secondary, and that's a huge loss. Ryan Tannehill has shown improvement in the past year, and he has a good offensive line in front of him this year. Buffalo took advantage of a bunch of Miami mistakes to win that game last week. Expect Miami to clean it up this week as they come back home and take care of business.
Carolina Sports
Redskins vs. Eagles
Play: Under 51
Our computer has this one at 48 points to be scored. We like Philly's underrated defense that has really performed well in the 2nd half of their first two games. The Eagles are only allowing 4.6-ypp in their first two games. The public is on the over in this one because the Eagles are a 'over' team that the public likes to wager on. The under falls into a great system that allows to play nder - Any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (WASHINGTON) - versus division opponents, off a home win, 56-26 (68.3%) since 1983.
Jeff Hochman
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: San Francisco 49ers -3
These two teams are very familiar with each other and that will favor the more "hungrier" team if you will. The 49ers are 9-1 SU against the Cardinals of late. San Francisco has swept the Cardinals in two straight seasons, so you might say they have Arizona's number. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in Week 3. I like the 49ers to bounce back after last Sunday night's meltdown. The Cardinals played on the East Coast and will travel back home while the 49ers won't have to travel as far. Light play on the road chalk.
Will Rogers
Houston vs. N.Y. Giants
Pick: Houston
The Texans are in New York this week to take on the Giants, and Houston is undefeated at 2-0. This is exactly where they were at this point last year, and they went on to lose their next 14 games. There is plenty of reason to think things will be different this season, while the Giants haven't shown any signs of fixing their issues.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Eli Manning - The Giants QB has two Super Bowl rings, but he's been simply awful since the beginning of last season. He's already been picked off four times in two weeks, putting him on pace to surpass last seasons total of 27 INTs. This is not an ideal spot to expect him to turn things around against a Texans defense that has held opponents to an average of just 10 points per game so far.
2. Texans Running Game - Arian Foster ran for 138 yards and a TD last week in Oakland, and he's likely to get plenty of touches here on the road this week. The Giants defense has only allowed an average of 100 yards rushing per game through the first two weeks, but I expect them to struggle here against a very physical Texans team.
3. X-Factor - The Giants lead the NFL with six turnovers, and they don't have a single takeaway.
DAVE COKIN
SEATTLE MARINERS AT HOUSTON ASTROS
PLAY: HOUSTON ASTROS +123
My personal AL MVP this year is probably Collin McHugh. Obviously, I’m not talking about the real award. Burt as far as my plays are concerned, I ought find out if there’s a Collin McHugh “fathead” and if so, should put it up in a very visible location.
McHigh has been a money machine for me. I’ve played him in each of his last eight starts, and have failed to get to the winner’s circle only once. McHugh has been no fluke, either. His control has been impeccable, and this guy had worked a nifty game plan virtually ever start. He is keeping his okay but nothing special fastball off the plate and is getting loads of swings and misses with his offspeed offerings. Command has been the key and McHugh, over the past couple months, has simply been one of the best pitchers in the game.
Hisashi Iwakuma provides the opposition today, so this is clearly no soft touch for the Astros. Even though Iwakuma has not been at his best of late, he’s a top quality starter and this is obviously a very big game for the Mariners.
But there’s no way I’m getting off the McHugh express, and I also like the fact I’m getting a good piece with the improving Astros as they bring down the curtain on the home portion of their 2014 schedule. I’m not biting the hand that’s been feeding me, and in fact I’m just going to keep dancing with McHugh till the music stops. The Astros at plus money are the free play for the day.
Harry Bondi
Indianapolis / Jacksonville Under 45
We'll gladly go under on this inflated total as both teams are in low-scoring situations. Not only have the Jags averaged less than 14 points per game so far this season, but they are 5-10 to the under in their last 15 home games and have also gone under in eight of their last 14 divisional games. What's more, the last six meetings in this series have all gone under the total, averaging just 34.5 points per game, which is more than 10 points less than today's total. Go under!