Nelly
Minnesota Vikings + over New Orleans Saints
The Vikings were caught in a tough spot last week with the late week removal of Adrian Peterson and a huge distraction for the team. Matt Cassel played poorly for the Vikings as after an opening drive touchdown the Vikings did not score again. A lot breaks went against Minnesota last week and the Vikings could be undervalued off the lopsided loss as the defense held New England under 300 yards. The Saints have taken a huge step back on defense through two weeks this season despite encouraging signs last season. New Orleans is great at home but this is a 0-2 team with issues now as a heavy favorite. When favored by 7 or more points the Saints are on a 24-34 ATS run and the defensive numbers are horrendous for New Orleans through two weeks. Minnesota is more than a yard superior in yards per play allowed and nearly a yard better in yards per rush allowed defensively. Opposing quarterbacks have a 104.6 rating against the Saints this season compared to a 77.2 rating against the Vikings this season. Minnesota has covered in four of the last five trips to New Orleans and in five straight games vs. NFC foes as this was a team playing very competitive ball late last season. If the Vikings avoid the turnover bug that bit them last week they will stay right in this game.
Tony George
Chargers vs. Buffalo
Play: Chargers +2.5
I am holding the horses on Buffalo, as they have not started out 3-0 since 1992 and not sure the Chargers are a push over just because they won a huge game last week and they have to travel across the country. The Buffalo offense only had 1 TD last week in that win over the Dolphins, and the coaching edge surely goes to the Bolts, I love their head coach. No doubt the running game goes to the Bills, but you did not see Lynch from Seattle have a huge day last week and QB Rivers is vastly better than Manuel here.
One thing about Philip Rivers is with his veteran knowledge, he knows how to get rid of the ball in a hurry when he needs to and that does counter the good pass rush that Buffalo has. Looks to easy to take the Bills at home against a team who is off a huge upset win against the Super Bowl Champs and they have to travel and play early in the day with a 3 zone time change. The Chargers blew the Monday Night Football opener but I can assure you the Chargers are a good football team, with numerous weapons and they have played some very solid defense as well, and are extremely well coached.
River City Sharps
NY Giants -1
The 0-2 Giants welcome the 2-0 Texans and the money seems to be coming in on the Giants. This is one we like from a situational perspective. The Texans are a "soft" 2-0 while Giants got beat handily in week 1 they actually had numerous opportunities last week against Arizona. We think Coughlin will have the Giants ready to play and at home this is already a big game for them. The difference so far in this young season between these 2 teams is turnovers. The Texans are second in the league in TO differential and the Giants last. That has been a point of emphasis this week in the Giants camp. We don't see Ryan Fitzpatrick playing as flawless as he has the first 2 games and last week the Texans were benefactors of 4 Oakland TO's. While on the otherside, the Giants turned the ball over 4 times themselves which ended up costing the game last week. We don't see either of those happening again this week and will go with the home team who has their backs against the wall already. It appears as though Foster will not go today for the Texans, which is another reason to side with the home team.
Dr Bob
Minnesota (+10) 23 NEW ORLEANS 28
Although the Vikings were beaten badly last week by the Patriots, upon further inspection, some great New England field position to go along with a fluke play accounted for much of the difference. With a chance to cut the lead to just 10-17 with a 47 yard field goal at the end of the first half, New England’s Chandler Jones blocked the kick and scooped it up for a 58 yard touchdown return to push the Patriots’ lead to 24-7. That was pretty much the end of it for the Vikings. It also didn’t hurt New England at all to have excellent field positon, starting four drives at midfield or better on Sunday, along with two others that began at the New England 39 and 45. Defensively, the stat sheet actually looks fairly impressive for the Vikings as they allowed the Patriots offense only 292 total yards at 4.9 yppl. The Vikings were terrible on offense, however, with Matt Cassel throwing four interceptions and being sacked six times to go along with 55 yards rushing at 3.1 ypr.
With a surprising 24-26 loss last week in Cleveland, the Saints have now dropped to 0-2 and will be looking for their first win this week in their home opener. The Saints have been excellent at home recently with 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS records last season, winning by an average score of 34-16. They should be focused to play well in this game but they have been a below average team so far this season featuring their usual excellent offense, but a disappointing defense. It was somewhat understandable giving up boatloads of yards and points to a good Falcons offense in Week 1, but they did show some improvement last week against the Browns, allowing 324 total yards at 4.5 yppl.
Minnesota qualifies in a good statistical match-up indicator that is 138-65-7, while the Saints qualify in 69-126-2 and 36-73-6 negative situations that play against them in this game. My ratings favor the Saints by about ten points and while the situations have me leaning with the Vikings, it’s going to be a pass for me based on what is a favorable spot for the Saints.
Green Bay (+2.5) 28 DETROIT 27
After falling behind 3-21 in the second quarter last week against the Jets, the Packers came storming back and outscored New York 28-3 the rest of the way for a 31-24 victory. After some early difficulties, QB Aaron Rodgers found his groove and by the fourth quarter it appeared that the Packers could score at will. The Jets depleted secondary had problems keeping up with WR Jordy Nelson, who finished with 9 receptions for 209 yards and the Packers found just enough of a run game to keep the defense honest. Meanwhile, the Lions had a difficult time in Carolina as they were -3 in turnovers and could only generate 4.6 yppl against the Panthers defense, losing 7-24.
In 2013 the Packers had my top rated pass offense in the league and will be facing a banged up secondary in Detroit this week. Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy is 14-2 SU against the Lions with eight games being decided by 10 points or more, including four by over 20 points. Aaron Rodgers is 9-1 SU versus Detroit, with a passer rating of 111.0 to go along with a 68.29 completion percentage and 8.92 yps. The Packers are 34-16 ATS in divisional games under head coach Mike McCarthy and this is the first of three consecutive games against division opponents. Under McCarthy, the Packers have played three straight games against division foes twice (2006, 2012) and have gone 6-0 in those games.
The Lions are still breaking in new systems on both sides of the ball with new offensive and defensive coordinators. With new schemes comes lack of confidence and cohesion at times, and they are facing a very good Packers team with stable systems in place. The secondary for the Lions is vulnerable as they have lost two nickel corners to injury the past two weeks and have an underwhelming and exploitable group to begin with. The issue the Packers will have, however, is in the offensive/defensive line matchup with Detroit. The Lions have an exceptional group that has held opponents to 58 yards at 2.6 ypr and just 256 yards at 4.3 yppl overall so far this season. I expect that they will give the Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense some problems. My ratings favor Detroit in this spot by only about a half point and there are situations that go both ways in this game. I’ll lean with the Packers plus the points.
Washington (+6.5) 24 PHILADELPHIA 28
The Redskins may have gotten lucky with the Robert Griffin injury last week as it provides a legitimate reason to make a QB switch without causing a major controversy. Kirk Cousins is a possibly a better fit in the Gruden system and we had a chance to see last week what Cousins is capable of. Although it was only against a bad Jaguars team, Cousins delivered when called upon, hitting on his first twelve passes and finishing the game 22 of 33 for 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He’ll face a more difficult challenge this week against the 2-0 Eagles, who are coming off a come from behind 30-27 win on Monday night against the Colts. The match-up to watch is the Eagles rushing attack against the Redskins surprisingly good rush defense. Although the season is young and Washington has not faced what you would consider rushing juggernauts in Houston and Jacksonville, their 71 rushing yards per game at 3.5 ypr allowed is impressive. This follows a season where they were actually pretty good defending the run, allowing 112 yards at 4.3 ypr against teams that would normally gain 118 yards at 4.6 ypr. This is also a coming home of sorts for Redskins WR DeSean Jackson in his first return to Philadelphia since leaving in the offseason, although he injured his shoulder last week and may be compromised a bit in this one. Also of concern is the status of TE Jordan Reed who has been dealing with a hamstring injury. Although the Redskins defense played well last week, registering 10 sacks against the Jaguars and will be facing a banged up Eagles offensive line, the Eagles ability to generate explosive plays worries me. The Eagles are one of the best teams in the league at creating space and the Redskins have been vulnerable to big plays, allowing 79 and 63 yard touchdowns the first two games with another potential long touchdown dropped. Safety Bacarri Rambo, who has been implicated in multiple blown coverages, was released this week as Brandon Meriweather has been reinstated and may help to create a more cohesive coverage unit.
Washington qualifies in a good 97-38-2 situation and my ratings don’t show a difference with the posted number of Philly -6.5. As a result, I’ll pass with a lean to the Redskins plus the points.
Dallas (-1) 24 ST. LOUIS 20
The Cowboys appear to be a bit undervalued so far this season after their 26-10 victory against the Titans in Tennessee last week. After starting the season imploding against the 49ers with a -4 turnover differential, Dallas bounced back last week behind the strength of their very good rushing attack. With RB DeMarco Murray leading the way, the Cowboys rushed for 220 yards at 5.1 ypr against the Titans, and are now averaging 174 yards at 5.3 ypr on the season. They match up well this week with a Rams rush defense that is allowing yards by the boatload, giving up an average of 172 yards at 5.9 ypr. Last week in Tampa, the Rams gave up 332 yards at 6.5 yppl, allowing a subpar Bucs offense to generate efficient offensive production (157 rushing yards at 5.2 ypr and 175 passing yards at 8.3 yps with only 1 sack). This week they’ll face a far superior Cowboys offense that should be able to move the ball against them effectively with a balanced attack. Meanwhile, the Rams have a backup QB starting (either Shaun Hill or Austin Davis) that will be facing a Cowboys defense that has played above expectations, allowing 19 points per game and 316 total yards at 5.4 yppl. They also welcome their best cornerback, Orlando Scandrick, back from suspension and he’ll join a secondary that has been playing well so far this season.
The Cowboys qualify in a 658-486-40 fundamental rushing situation as well as a good 138-65-7 statistical match-up indicator but they also qualify in a negative 82-136-2 situation that plays against them. The Cowboys crushed the Rams 31-7 in Dallas last season with DeMarco Murray rushing for 175 yards on 25 carries but the Rams will be focused on shutting him down. Also, Tony Romo’s performance so far this season is concerning as his stats are down across the board. After multiple back surgeries the past two years he doesn’t appear to be fully functional and he had to sit out practice on Wednesday due to back tightness. I’m going to pass on this game but offer a lean to the Cowboys.
NY GIANTS (+2) 22 Houston 19
With another 2-0 start, the Texans appear to be headed in the right direction after their 2-14 season last year, one in which they also started 2-0 before losing their final 14 games. Their level of competition has not been stellar, however, as they have beaten the Redskins and the Raiders, teams that produced a combined 7-25 SU record last season, so I’m not going to get too excited just yet about the Texans. Especially considering the fact that they are being outgained so far this season 323-368 at 5.5 to 6.0 yppl. What Houston has enjoyed so far this season is incredible luck as they are tied for 2nd in the league with a +5 turnover differential. Quite the contrary for the Giants who are dead last in the league with a -5 turnover differential and have yet to secure a takeaway this season. In addition, the Giants offense has been abysmal, displaying major blocking, passing, and tackling issues and as a result have been outgained 269-344 at 4.3 to 5.8 yppl. Particularly disturbing for the Giants is their lack of any semblance of a rushing game, which they have focused on entering this season as a major area of improvement. They are only averaging 67 yards per game at 2.7 ypr and with a banged up and mostly poor offensive line, will be facing a talented Houston defensive front.
My ratings actually favor the Giants in this game by about 4.5 points but they unfortunately qualify in a negative 82-143-8 situation that plays against them, otherwise I’d consider them based on the numbers. The Giants also benefit from facing a Texans team that has had quite a bit of travel this past week, going to Oakland, back to Houston and then off to New Jersey, while the Giants are playing their second consecutive game at home. I’ll pass on this game but offer a strong lean on the Giants based on what appears to be a good spot and a significant difference in my ratings.
CLEVELAND (+2) 22 Baltimore 21
After their 26-6 home win last Thursday night against the Steelers and with an extra three days to prepare, the Ravens will look to make it two divisional games in a row this week in Cleveland. Under Coach Harbaugh, the Ravens are 7-3 SU and 6-3-1 ATS as an away favorite versus a division foe but last season the Browns won in Cleveland 24-18 after the Ravens were off their bye. With confidence gained from their own upset win last week against the Saints in a game where they were +2 in turnover margin, the Browns will attempt to establish the run against a tough Ravens defense that is allowing only 90 yards per game at 4.3 ypr. The Ravens, however, should be the team that has success on the ground with a rushing attack that is averaging 125 yards at 4.6 ypr matched-up against a Cleveland defense that is allowing 150 yards at 5.5 ypr. The Browns have said that they will be focused on stopping the Ravens run game this week but that will be a difficult task. Overall the Browns defense is allowing 443 yards per game at 6.7 yppl.
I don’t have any situations that apply to this game but my model favors the Browns by about 2 points. I don’t like the match-up for the Browns here, however, and the spot is not ideal for them off a big win and with the Ravens having extra time to prepare. I don’t have much of an opinion on this one but I’ll lean slightly with the Browns based on the ratings.
Oakland (+14) 15 NEW ENGLAND 28
After the results of last week’s games it’s hard to imagine the Raiders keeping this one competitive. After all, Oakland was blown up at home by the Texans 14-30 while the Patriots were crushing the Vikings in Minnesota 30-7. In fact, Houston led the Raiders 27-0 in the fourth quarter before a couple of late scores made the result a bit more respectable. Meanwhile, the Patriots had no problem with the Vikings, holding them to just 218 total yards at 3.6 yppl while registering six sacks a +4 turnover margin. The Raiders appear to be a bit rudderless with what appears to be a lame duck coach, a team bereft of significant talent across much of the roster, particularly on offense, and a rush defense that is allowing an average of 202 yards rushing at 5.2 ypr per game! Last week the Texans ran right at the Raiders, generating 151 yards rushing between the tackles. Now having to travel cross-country for a 10AM Pacific start time and matched up against a balanced Patriots offense and improved defense, it could be a long day for Oakland.
I don’t have any situations that apply to this game and my ratings favor the Patriots by about 13 points. With no real opinion on this one at all, I’ll pass but lean very slightly to the Raiders plus the points based on the ratings.
ARIZONA (+3) 20 San Francisco 21
Arizona played well last week in a tough spot off a Monday night game and then had to travel to the east coast to play in a 10AM Pacific start time game without their starting quarterback. They were fortunate to come away with the victory as they were outgained 268 total yards at 4.5 yppl to 341 yards at 5.0 yppl for the Giants but had a net +4 turnover margin. Backup QB Drew Stanton played fairly well, not making any major mistakes, but also passing for just 142 yards at 4.3 yps. Meanwhile, the 49ers blew a 17-0 lead as the Bears took over in the fourth quarter. Once again, this is a game that was determined by turnovers, with the Bears +4 being the difference. San Francisco won the game on the stat sheet, rolling up 361 yards at 5.6 yppl to 218 yards at 4.4 yppl for the Bears.
The 49ers will be motivated to play well here as Coach Harbaugh is 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS following a loss, but he is just 9-10 ATS in division games. These teams match up pretty well with a Cardinals run defense that is allowing just 66 yards at 2.6 ypr taking on a 49ers rushing offense that is generating 128 yards at 4.6 ypr. The passing offense of the 49ers is still a work in progress, with Colin Kaepernick locking in to his first option too often, and could be without top TE Vernon Davis this week. However, I don’t have a lot of confidence in Cardinals QB Drew Stanton, as he looked tentative at times last week and just doesn’t have the same timing and chemistry that Palmer has developed with his receivers. In addition, there have been multiple distractions this week for Arizona with the Jonathan Dwyer domestic abuse charges and the John Abraham saga. Arizona qualifies in 658-486-40 and 47-24 situations while the 49ers qualify in a negative 19-57-4 situation and as a result I’ll offer a weak lean to the Cardinals at home.
Kansas City (+4) 23 MIAMI 22
The Chiefs have really been decimated by injuries so far this season having lost both linebacker Derrick Johnson and defensive end Mike DeVito to Achilles injuries in Week 1. Then last week, both safety Eric Berry and running back Jamaal Charles left the game with ankle injuries. The Chiefs had already gone through a number of changes along the offensive line and in their secondary this off-season, so these losses will be really difficult to deal with. Kansas City is also dealing with a struggling undrafted rookie kicker in Cairo Santos who missed a 37-yard field goal attempt in the third quarter last week to end a 10-minute drive after also missing an attempt in Week 1. In addition, the Chiefs offensive line is going to have a tough match-up with an active Dolphins front that will make things difficult on QB Alex Smith, who doesn’t have many options in the passing game.
The Dolphins were embarrassed in their 10-29 loss in Buffalo last week, particularly along the interior of the offensive line, where they were manhandled by the Bills. Miami could only generate 290 yards of total offense at 3.9 yppl, and much of that was late when the game was already out of reach. Their best RB Knowshon Moreno is also now out with a dislocated elbow.
The 0-2 Chiefs will be prepared to deliver their best on Sunday, however, with the knowledge that another loss will be tough to recover from. With their next three games against the Patriots, 49ers and Chargers, with two of those on the road, they realize this is as close to a must win game as there can be this early in the season. The Dolphins qualify in two negative situations that are 180-249-12 and 36-73-6 that play against them and my ratings favor the Chiefs by about a point. I like the Chiefs in this game but I have too many concerns about their injury and kicking situations to make this a Best Bet.
Denver (+5) 23 SEATTLE 27
This should be a great game to watch with two of the best teams in the league squaring off in a rematch of last February’s Super Bowl. The Broncos haven’t been quite the same team so far this season, allowing a late Indianapolis comeback in Week 1 and then going down to the wire with the Chiefs last week. Their yppl differential is very good at 6.3 to 5.4 but they have given up more yards on average than they have gained, 345-394. They won both games, however, and the same can’t be said for the Seahawks who enter this week 1-1 after their 21-30 loss last week in San Diego. The Chargers used ball control to eat up the clock last week in scorching heat, wearing down the Seattle defense with a 42:15-17:45 time advantage and winning the yardage battle 384-288.
Seattle is motivated to rebound this week off of their loss, while the Broncos are clearly motivated to avenge their 8-43 Super Bowl loss. Seattle has been incredible at home the past two plus seasons, going 18-1 SU and 14-5 ATS but the Broncos have been pretty good in away games, going 12-4 SU and 10-6 ATS. From a match-up perspective, the Seahawks will look to establish the run by spreading the field as there is some concern about the Broncos ability to defend the run out of the nickel. I expect that the Broncos will be focused on shutting down the Seattle ground attack and they have done a good job so far this season, allowing 94 yards at 4.2 ypr, but a balanced Seattle offense will be difficult to defend. It will be interesting to see how defensive illegal contact penalties will be called here with the renewed emphasis on enforcement and if it will have any impact on the game, as the Super Bowl last year was the catalyst behind the changes.
There are situations that go both ways in this game and my ratings favor the Seahawks by about 6.5 points. The situation on the Broncos is a bit stronger than the one on Seattle, and as such this game is really a toss-up to me. I’ll lean slightly with the Broncos plus the points based on the revenge factor and the changes they will have made in anticipation of this match-up.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +206 over OAKLAND
A.J. Burnett has lost more games (17) than any starter in the game. However, he has struck out 35 batters over his last five starts covering 32 innings and his xERA over that span is 3.18. Burnett also has a 51% groundball rate. A.J. Burnett is going to retire after this season. He has two starts left and we’re certain he doesn’t want to go out with more losses than he already has. Burnett has actually pitched so much better than his surface stats suggest and he could not have handpicked a better team to face in the final road start of his career. Burnett still has gas in the tank while the same cannot be said for Scott Kazmir.
We’re all witnessing what may later be explained as the greatest collapse in the history of this great game. Oakland has gone from the best record in baseball to being on the verge of missing the playoffs in the span of 5½ weeks. Since August 13, Oakland has 11 wins over 34 games. Since August 28, Oakland has six wins in 22 games while scoring 60 runs over that span. During its current nine-game home stand, Oakland is 1-4, they were just swept by Texas and they’re batting .186. Oakland's RBI leaders, Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss have combined for 14 hitless at-bats in this series. Now Scott Kazmir will try and get them back on track. Kazmir has walked 13 batters over his last 19 innings, covering five starts. He has posted an 8.28 ERA over that stretch along with a 1.78 WHIP. His groundball rate has dipped from 53% to 35% over that same stretch of five games. Suggesting that Kazmir is gasping for air would be an understatement and the same can be said for the team he pitches for. How can we not take this better than 2-1 offer?
N.Y. Mets +107 over ATLANTA
Opportunity knocked for Ervin Santana when Braves’ pitchers began landing on the DL this spring. And while the ERA lags 2013, the numbers suggest the club got their money's worth by inking the veteran right-hander. However, Santana’s groundball rate over his last six starts has dipped to just 35% and he’s beginning to throw less strikes, as his 12 walks in his past 29 frames will attest to. Besides, this one has little to do with fading Santana and much more to do with fading Atlanta as a whole against an outstanding pitcher.
The Braves are finished. After a long year in which they were in contention all the way to early September, Atlanta is now 7 games out of a Wild Card spot with eight games remaining. Losers in seven of their past eight to blow any chance they may have had, the Braves collective state of mind comes into question in their final eight games. To make matters worse, Atlanta now has to deal with Jacob DeGrom. DeGrom pitched well against the Braves earlier this season, tallying 19 strikeouts against just two walks in 13 innings. That’s when Atlanta was playing for keeps. The rookie hurler owns a 2.40 xERA (2.12 actual ERA) with 40 k’s and seven walks issued over his last 34 innings. Throw in a 50% groundball rate and an elite 15% swing and miss rate over that same span and one can see why DeGrom offers up so much value as a pooch here. No team has registered a lower OPS in the month of September than the Braves (.556) and so any take-back with the Mets here with DeGrom starting has to be considered a gift.
SPORTS WAGERS
MONTREAL +7 over Calgary
This has definitely been the year of bad beats or lucky victories in the CFL (depending on which side you had), as it seems like each game has something more bizarre that happens than the previous game. There’s no rhyme or reason to it but it just confirms our position that nobody can predict the outcome of games and that you must stick to value and let the chips fall where they may. That brings as to the Alouettes, a team that has been sharper of late, especially at home and a team that usually plays outstanding defense as long as they don’t have to be out there the entire game. For the Als, this game is huge but for the Stampeders, it’s more like an inconvenience, setting up this strong situational play on the home dog.
It would be extremely easy to make a case for the Stampeders here. After all, they own the league’s best record at 10-1 with their only loss occurring to the Lions by a single point, 25-24. Four of Calgary’s 10 wins have been by 21 points or more and six of them have been by double-digits, which include a 29-8 victory over these Alouettes. That said, this one has upset written all over it for several reasons. First, Calgary exerted a lot of energy last week when they rallied from a 29-10 deficit at halftime to defeat the Argonauts. They lost several key players in that effort, including star RB, Jon Cornish. The Stamps are also without QB Bo Levi Mitchell and in his place Drew Tate makes his first CFL start. Not many QB’s in the history of this league have had successful first starts. Tate has played but he has not started. Lastly, the Stamps close out their schedule against the East here. The stretch run has them playing their final six games against the West, beginning next week when they host the only team they’ve lost to this season, the B.C. Lions. No team can sustain high intensity throughout the entire 18-game schedule. There will be breathers along the way and as far as situational betting goes, this is as good as it gets for taking significant home points.
Tony Karpinski
Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Denver Broncos +5
Denver is a team with a mission "yet again" - it seems to be their motto. But they have some new additions on defense and the much awaited return of Von Miller and Ryan Clady, they are that much better this year than last. Their defense is much better and I look for a tight game here and Manning to play better than he did in the Super Bowl. On top of that, adding Emmanuel Sanders has been huge, with his team leading 14 recpts and a good deep threat. Seattle will play how they usually do, not really needing to blitz, just pounding their 4 man rush and put pressure on Manning. We all know Lynch can hit the hole with authority, displaying vision and power. But with Sylvester Williams and Terrance Knighton in the middle of the D for the Broncos, it might be tougher than expected. Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road Take Denver PLUS the 5 points
Jeff Alexander
Baltimore Ravens -1
The Ravens hold the advantage here because they have had 3 extra days of rest and preparation time. They have completely owned the Browns, going 11-1 in the last 12 meetings with the wins coming by an average of 12.5 points. The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Cleveland, and the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings so the trends are certainly in our favor. The Browns did win the most recent meeting, but that assures us that Baltimore won't be taking them lightly. The Browns won last week, but that was their first win in 9 games. I'm going to make the Browns prove it.
Doug Upstone
Dallas vs. St. Louis
Play: Under 44
Play UNDER on teams like Dallas when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points early in the season, whose pass defense was poor last season, allowed 255 or more passing yards a game. One aspect of football is teams make a concerted effort to improve on weaknesses from year to year. In this case it was the Cowboys looking to improve their pass defense and because of typical improvements and when the oddsmakers total is in this range, the UNDER is 25-4 since 2010, 86.2 percent (7-1 this season) with the average total score of 39.6 PPG.
John Ryan
Oakland Raiders vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots -14
The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 17 or more points. Raiders defensive front is horid and the Patriost will use a steady does of Ridley from the start of this game. Vareen will get his does of runs too as a change of pace back. Ridley is the best runner on the roster. He runs with great energy and will attack the line of scrimmage consistently and is a decisive runner. This matches up very well against Raiders, because he sees a lane quickly he will bounce through and get to the second level and has the leg strength to break tackles and occasionally reach the secondary. Obviously, this sets ip play action for Brady to have large amounts of time without pressure to survey the field and complete high percentage passes all of the field. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-12 ATS mark for 76% winners since 1983. Play on home favorites (NEW ENGLAND) that is a solid team from last season that outscored opponents by 4 or more points/game and after scoring 30 points or more last game.45% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. SIM projects that Patriost will gain a minimum of 6.0 yards per play. In past games, the Raiders are just 3-11 ATS in that role over the past three seasons.
Nick Parsons
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Washington Nationals -165
This is one of those end of the season games with two teams heading in opposite directions. The nationals are looking forward to the playoffs and the Marlins are looking to go home. Since the Marlins lost their superstar Giancarlo Stanton, they have dropped six of nine.
The Nationals are looking for a four game sweep and will be sending Stephan Strasburg to the mound to get it. Strasburg is 12 and eleven on the year with a 3.34 ERA. In his last four starts he has gone two and one with an ERA of 1.69. It was the seventh time in his last 10 outings that he's allowed fewer than two runs.
The Nationals will be facing Nathan Eovaldi on Sunday. He has struggled this year going 6-12 with a 4.48 ERA. He is 0-6 with a 6.56 ERA in seven starts since his last win. He's pitched fewer than five innings in three of his last five starts.
The Marlins had won three of four entering this series but have scored only twice in each contest.
The Nationals have been the better team all year and have proven it in this series. The Marlins pitcher has thrown 68 more inning than he has ever thrown in a season. I think he is losing steam down the stretch and the Nationals are not a team you want to face without your best stuff.
Steve Rosen
San Diego Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills -1
BUFFALO is looking good all around! There defense is holding opponents to an average of 15 points.Buffalo has excelled on special team behind kicker Dan Carpenter and running back/returner C.J. Spiller, who returned a kickoff 102 yards last week to crush Miami’s momentum in a 29-10 win. Buffalo’s offense has not needed to do much thanks to the defense and special teams, but EJ Manuel is occasionally showing how effective he can be when healthy and with a full complement of weapons. Manuel and rookie receiver Sammy Watkins have developed an instant chemistry. Keep in mind the weather will be rainy and in the favor of Buffalo. The travel of any west coast team to the east coast is never good. Keep in mind , when was the last time Buff was 3-0? They have momentum and will be hungry in this game.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
NEW ORLEANS -10 over Minnesota: One theory I like to use for a team is that when things get tough for them the best that can happen is a road game. Uh Not here. This is a terrible spot for the Vikings. They are leaving town from all the turmoil, but they are still without their best player in Adrian Petersen. Now the Vikings take to the road to take on an angry Saints squad that played and lost their 1st 2 games of the season on the road. At home Drew Brees in unstoppable, while the saints as a team have outscored their opponents by 20 ppg in their last 20 home wins. Minnesota may be an improved team this year, but their defense is still suspect, they have very little running game and do not have a NFL caliber QB that can put enough points on the board to keep this one close vs the Saints.
Detroit/Green Bay Over 52: I see this as a shootout. Both offenses are high powered and while the Lions didn't show that last week at Carolina, they are a much different offensive team at home. They proved that in game 1 by moving the ball at will vs the Giants. Now they get to take on a suspect Green bay offense that allowed GENO SMITH to just move the ball at will vs them last week and of course Seattle did the same as well. Aaron Rodgers has always had great numbers vs the Lions and Detroit has a very weak defensive backfield. We also note that the Over is 7-3 in Detroit's last 10 home games, while the Over is 6-0 in Green Bay's last 6 games in September. Both teams should throw a bunch in this game as we see nearly 60 points put up.
Cincinnati/Tennessee Under 42.5: The Bengal offense is explosive, but they are banged up at WR and that should mean a bit more running from Bernard, who has been solid in the early going. Another reason the Bengals may look to run more is that they just saw the Titans get run over by the Cowboys last week. The Bengals have given up some yards this year, but make no mistake this is a very good defense that will only get better as the season goes on. Despite allowing 366 ypg, they have given up just 13 ppg so far. The Titans offense is not an explosive one, but more of a ball control one that will just look to keep the clock moving. They have averaged just 18 ppg thus far and I don’t see them putting up a whole lot on this tough Bengals defense. The Titan defense has been solid and are 1 st in the league vs the pass, while allowing just 18 ppg on the year so far. The Under is 6-1 the last 7 meetings in Cincinnati, while the UNDER is also 6-1 in Tennessee’s last 7 games on Fieldturf. Both trends should continue here as we get a game in the mid-30s at best.
BEST OF THE REST
San Diego/Buffalo Over 45: The Bolts offense is clicking right now and really showed how good they can be vs the Seahawks. They have lost Ryan Mathews for a few weeks and that just means they will have to throw a bit more. Donald Brown is a solid back and will for the Bill LBs to pay attention to him, which means the throwing lanes should open even more for Rivers. The Buffalo offense is not a juggernaut, but their ground attack is very good and that will also help to open throwing lanes for EJ Manuel to pick apart a rather weak San Diego secondary. Lets also note that the Game 3 home favorites of less than 7 have gone 23-5 to the OVER if they played BB Unders in their first 2 games. This one should hit 50+.
NY GIANTS -1 over Houston: Something keeps telling me "Take the Giants", so I will listen to that inner voice on this one. The Giant showed a couple of bright spots in their new offense last week in the first half and this has the feel of a game that they will put it all together. They really need this game to take the pressure off and while the Texans have shown that they are in bounce back mode I just see this as a tough spot for them, especially after playing in Oakland last week and now having to travel cross county for this one, plus playing a desperate 0-2 team doesn't help matters either. I look for the Giants to break through with their first win of the year today.
Strike Point Sports
New Orleans -9.5
This is where the New Orleans Saints make a statement. The Minnesota Vikings are in a state of turmoil, and the New Orleans Saints are looking to absolutely destroy someone. What a perfect spot for New Orleans. The Saints are in front of their home crowd coming off two tough, tough loses, and they will be looking to just put it on the Vikings. New Orleans is 35-16 ATS in their last 51 home games, while the Vikings are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a losing home record. The Vikings have had some success versus New Orleans lately, especially in New Orleans, but not this time. The way that this game is setting up makes it feel that New Orleans is going to win by numerous touchdowns. This game has a 41-17 feel to it. The Saints defense hasn’t played well at all this season, but I see them really getting after the Vikings and causing havoc all over the field. Look for New Orleans to really take advantage of their quick-strike offense and put some of the naysayers to rest with a demolishing of Minnesota. Lay the big number in this one
Matt Rivers
Put up or shut up time for the Lions today at home against Green Bay, who they beat last year on Thanksgiving - minus Aaron Rodgers - to snap a five-game SU and ATS series' slide.
Detroit was dominant in Jim Caldwell's coaching debut against the Giants at home two Mondays ago, but they were equally bad at Carolina last week. The defense collapsed as the Panthers threw for 281 yards and picked up 18 passing first downs. Three costly turnovers led to 10 Panther points.
So why back the Lions today? Because Green Bay was even worse playing at home in the first half against the Jets last Sunday as New York dominated the line of scrimmage and the Packers couldn't stop the run for the second straight week after Seattle's Marshawn Lynch rank through them in their road opener.
Green Bay's got some injury concerns along the OL and that led to Rodgers getting sacked by the Jets four times last Sunday. Now he faces one of the toughest and most physical defensive fronts in the league with the Lions.
Eddie Lacy has done nothing to support Rodgers; he's got just 77 yards in two games.
Looking for the Lions to rebound here in a high-scorer.
FYI - if this line shifts to -3 or even -3 1/2, buy down the hook on Detroit.
3* DETROIT