Scott Delaney
My free play is out of the AFC South, as I'm playing the Indianapolis Colts over Jacksonville, laying the road number with no problem whatsoever. The Jaguars return home after road losses at Philadelphia and Washington. Some might like to think they're hoping to shine in their home opener, but I don't know if this team is capable of winning a game after seeing their first two debacles of the season.
Neither team has really done anything impressive, but I would like to think we'll see more improvement out of the Colts, rather than Jacksonville. Indy allowed 24 points over the final 20 minutes against Philadelphia this past Monday and has to shore things up very quickly on that side of the ball. This is a great spot to start.
I have no doubt we're going to see greatness out of the Colts' offense today, as Jacksonville's defense has given up 68 points in the last six quarters and can't seem to get off the field on third down. The Colts have won three in a row in the series, all by at least 17 points, and today they run it up.
1♦ INDIANAPOLIS
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Carolina Panthers over Pittsburgh as these two hook up tonight in Carolina.
The only thing that caused me to not release this as a premium selection is that the public is pounding the Panthers, which usually means disaster.
Pittsburgh has two pretty big problems, and both of them have to do with the line. For starters, they don't protect Ben Roethlisberger very well, and that hurts both the passing game and running game. If he's not being sacked, he's getting a lot of pressure in his face which forces him to scramble earlier than he wants.
On the other side, the defensive line (and even the backers) aren't getting any pressure on opposing QBs. They were very average against the Browns in Week 1 and didn't record a single sack against Joe Flacco in Week 2.
And if that's not bad enough, the secondary looks to be a shell of their former self. Ike Taylor is horrendous, allowing big play after big play. Cortez Allen is equally bad and Michael Mitchell still hasn't figured out what he's doing.
Even if the Steelers do manage a few TDs here or there, I just don't see how they're going to stop Carolina.
Take the Panthers to cover this number at home as your free play of the day.
3♦ CAROLINA
Jeff Benton
After putting 35 points on the board in their home opener on the 8th, the Lions went out on the road last weekend and could only muster 7 in a loss at Carolina.
Back at home against a division foe I expect the points to add up when Green Bay comes to town. The Packers have played both of their games this year Over the total, combining with Seattle for 52 on Week One, and last week with the Jets for 55 points.
6 of Green Bay's 8 road games last year went Over the total, and that includes a Thanksgiving Day 40-10 loss at Ford Field in a game Aaron Rodgers was sidelined with injury.
Including that Turkey Day home Over for the Lions, Detroit has now played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the posted price.
Expect Rodgers and Stafford to put on a show, and the Packers-Lions to make their way Over the total in the Motor City on Sunday.
3♦ GREEN BAY-DETROIT OVER
Gabriel Dupont
I will play the New England Patriots minus the big number at home against the Oakland Raiders as my complimentary play today.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with the Patriots - The Patriots are 25-4, including playoff games, at Gillette Stadium dating back to 2011. Laying two touchdowns in their home opener against the Raiders isn't even a question today, as they're 11-1 in home openers since they moved into Gillette in 2002.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against the Raiders - The Raiders, ranked 32nd - dead last - in the AP Pro32, have to travel across the country to take on a pissed off team that is looking to carry momentum over from last week's 30-7 win over Minnesota, a win that followed a frustrating 33-20 loss to the Dolphins in Miami to start the season.
In conclusion, why NEW ENGLAND is my SMART PLAY in this game - Over the past five regular seasons, the Patriots are 37-3 at home and have gone a perfect 8-0 at Gillette in four of the past seven seasons. I can't see them stumbling here, and think they'll be out to put on their next opponent - it doesn't really matter it's the Raiders coming in today. Tom Brady is on a 56-5 run at home, including a monstrous 49-3 during the regular season. Lay the chalk today.
5♦ NEW ENGLAND
Chris Jordan
My early free winner for tonight is on the Buffalo Bills over the San Diego Chargers, as the surprising AFC East leaders will keep their record intact with their third straight win.
San Diego, which is 1-3 in past four trips to Orchard Park, and a combined 4-11 on the road against AFC East opponents since 2000, is having to travel across the country after pulling off a huge upset last week. So while many of you might be eagerly awaiting to see what the Bolts do as an ecore, I think they'll stumble here in a letdown.
See, the Bills have chance to open 3-0 for first time since 2011, which is also last time they won three straight. Quarterback EJ Manuel is 4-2 with eight TDs and three interceptions in six career home starts. And, first-round pick Sammy Watkins leads all NFL rookies with 11 catches for 148 yards. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, Buffalo's defense has allowed less than 90 yards rushing in first two games.
Lay the cheap number with Buffalo here.
4♦ BUFFALO
My second free winner for today is on the Arizona Cardinals over the San Francisco 49ers, as I think the wrong team is favored in this one.
I know the Redbirds have had a tough time knocking off the Niners in the past, having won just once the past 10 times in this series, but the Cardinals come into this contest in front of the 49ers in the standings. Arizona is 2-0 after beating the Giants on the road, 25-14.
I like the Cardinals' chances in this one after seeing how San Francisco dropped to 1-1 after a loss to Chicago, 28-20, a setback that spoiled the debut of the 49ers' new Levi's Stadium.
The 49ers have a significant injury problem with Vernon Davis and his sore ankle, and I'm not so sure this offense is going to be okay on the road, in a hositle environment, against a feisty Cardinals' defense tha ranks third against the rush and 11th overall.
Look for Arizona to challenge for the outright, and pull off a late outright win.
1♦ ARIZONA
Brad Wilton
After a surprising Week One win in convincing fashion at St. Louis, the Vikings returned home for a date with the Patriots and as we all know, the wheels promptly fell off for Minnesota as the Adrian Peterson story blew up in the nation's face.
Minnesota got crushed at home by New England, and starter-for-now QB Matt Cassel coughed the ball over 4 times along the way! Don't see much changing today at New Orleans, as the Saints are desperate for a win after starting 0-2 - both games away from the friendly Superdome.
Under Sean Payton, the Saints are 17-0 straight up, and 16-0-1 against the spread at home!
Hard to argue those numbers, and with Cassel giving the football away, and also the Minnesota special teams allowing a blocked field goal for the TD last week, it will only be a matter of time before the Vikings get swallowed under by the home cooking the Saints enjoy on the Bayou.
Saints by 17.
2♦ NEW ORLEANS
Brady Kannon
Tennessee +7
Tennessee proved in Week One that they can play. They lost the turnover battle in Week Two and it is not surprising as they were the favorite in that game, as I don't think they deserve that much credit just yet. I see this team as a live dog every time they take the field in that role and that is what we have here again today. The Bengals are good and I expect them to be there in the end but the number here is too big. The general consensus sees Cincinnati handling Baltimore (despite being the beneficiary of turnovers) and then taking it too a solid team in Atlanta.. and they also see The Titans getting beaten handily by The Cowboys.. but I feel the facts are that these teams are not 7-points apart.
I expect The Bengals will come back down to Earth a bit after a double digit victory, a factor in the line indeed. Andy Dalton is yet to be sacked and is yet to throw an interception - neither of these will last forever. I don't expect The Titans to win the game but again, I see this line off enough to grab Tennessee. Finally, Coach Whisenhunt is a former Steeler assistant, and during his time, owned The Bengals. He knows how to game plan for this team and is a stellar 16-and-1 ATS off of a non-division game when taking on a team off of a double digit victory. Titans keep it close - and you should be able to get the full 7.
Jimmy Boyd
Carolina Panthers -3
I will admit that I was one of those calling for the Panthers to take a big step back in 2014. I didn’t think this team would be able to generate enough offense and had some major concerns with their secondary after losing three starters. While the offense is still a work in progress, the defense has remained elite. Carolina comes in ranked 12th against the pass (207.5 ypg) and 6th versus the run (86.0 ypg). Pittsburgh on the other hand has not looked good outside of a strong first half against the Browns in Week 1. They completely fell apart in the 2nd half of that game against Cleveland, as they allowed the Browns to rally from a 24-point first half deficit to tie the game at 27-27 with over 11 minutes to play in the first half. They carried over that poor play against the Ravens on Thursday and I just don’t know how you can back them against this Carolina defense on the road in what figures to be a hostile environment in a nationally televised game. For me the big key in this matchup is the Steelers defense against the Carolina offense. As bad as the Panthers are offensively, they should be able to move the ball against this Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers are a respectable 7th against the pass (186.0 ypg), but that’s mainly due to their inability to stop the run. Pittsburgh comes in ranked 29th against the run, giving up a whopping 170.0 ypg on the ground. While the Panthers only rank 25th in rushing at 87.5 ypg, you have to keep in mind that they have faced two talented defensive lines in Tampa Bay and Detroit. Another aspect that I don’t think is getting enough respect is how well the Panthers have played at home since they turned things around. Carolina has won 8 straight games at Bank of America Stadium since losing to Seattle 7-12 back in Week 1 of last season. Adding to that is the fact that six of those wins have come by double-digits and all eight by at least 4-points. There's a strong system backing Carolina. Favorites who have committed 1 or less turnovers in each of their last 2 games against an opponent off a contest where they turned it over 3 or more times are 45-19 ATS over the last 5 seasons.
Steve Williams
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Kansas City Chiefs +3½
This has all the markings of a field goal game. Chiefs got the cover in Denver last week. Dolphins fell to Buffalo. Chiefs run game gets lift with De'Anthony Thomas back. Alex Smith should return to his winning form vs the Dolphin defense. Don't see Chiefs going 0-3. Getting 3.5 only helps in this spot. Chiefs 8-1 ATS on the road since 2013. Take KC plus the points.
Triple Threat Sports
San Diego Chargers
Bills come into this 2-0, but it is a fluky 2-0, as they have been outgained by a total of 42 yards in those games and are +4 in turnovers. We have the Chargers as the better team in our Power Ratings, and they have proven that they can play on the road, and on the East Coast. We look for things to start to even out for the Bills, and for the Bolts to come away with the outright win in this one.
Jeff Porter
Dallas Cowboys ML
Have to admit, loving this play a little less, not that I have seen the majority of the public jumping all over Dallas as well. And I mean like 80% of the public. Hard to imagine the Cowboys not walking away with the outright win here, especially considering the way St. Louis played in Week 1 on their home turf – losing 34-6 to the Vikings. The Rams did show some fight and some promise by coming through in a dogfight as the underdog in Tampa Bay for the 19-17 win, but the game did end with a bit of controversy and questions over whether they even deserved the win at all. Dallas should have too many weapons for this scrapped-together Rams team, and closer inspection shows that the Cowboys might be playing much better than their overall stats would suggest. They took the Titans down easily last week, 26-10, and held the 49′ers scoreless for the 2nd half of their week one game. They outscored SF 14-0 in that second half, but it was obviously a moot point after giving up 28 first half points. But they have shut down offenses now, allowing a mere 10 points through the L6 quarters and there is no reason to suspect they won’t easily have the same result here today. Romo has led his ‘Boys to a 5-2 ATS mark in their L7 as the road and 7-4 ATS in their L11 in the same situation. The Rams come into this one struggling a bit when laying the points at home, as they are 3-7 ATS in their L10 games when giving the points at home. Dallas picked up an easy 31-7 win last season against the Rams and the Cowboys have now won 3-of-4 in the head-to-head match-up. The favorite has picked up the cash in 3 of the L4 meetings, but had only cashed in 1 of the previous 6 before that.