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Lions (1-1) at Redskins (0-2)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Give the Redskins a break. They were the first team to face Chip Kelly’s newfangled offence and they fell too far behind before figuring it out. Last week, the ’Skins had to trip up to Lambeau on a short week to face a dangerous 0-1 Packers squad that was hungry to get to .500. As a result of Washington’s 0-2 start, we get a discounted price here. The Lions are given too much respect by the oddsmakers. Once again, they proved how unreliable they are, losing as chalk in Arizona last week. Sure, they have some firepower, but their cons outweigh their pros. Detroit still takes too many dumb penalties (19 in two games), many of them costly. That falls on the coach, who remains a nitwit. The Lions’ defence is a sieve. Washington is a better team than it has shown. Detroit is the same 4-12 squad from a year ago, one that has covered once in its past nine on grass. Spot the small number. TAKING: REDSKINS –1½
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Bills (1-1) at Jets (1-1)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Did you hear the one about the Jets being favoured? This is the NFL and any team can win on a given day. But being expected to win when you’re one of the weaker teams in the league is absurd. This Jets team has an offence that makes soccer seem exciting. New York has rushed for less than 70 yards in each game while passing for just 235 yards per contest. Both teams will start rookie quarterbacks, but early returns clearly have Buffalo’s EJ Manuel ahead of Jets neophyte Geno Smith. Manuel has a 95.9 passer rating, with three touchdowns and one interception, while Smith has produced an uninspiring 55.2 rating with one touchdown and four intercepts. Maybe the Jets do employ the better defence, but Buffalo’s stop unit appears to be getting stronger and definitely more confident. Offensively, the Bills have playmakers and, should the visitor ever get the lead, the Jets are not built for comebacks or, more importantly, spotting points. TAKING: BILLS +2½
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Colts (1-1) at 49ers (1-1)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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It’s not often you see us spotting double-digits in this space, but this one is irresistible. Truth is, the Colts are imposters. We have no doubt that Andrew Luck will continue to ascend as a premier quarterback in this league. The trouble is a weak supporting cast. The Colts are awful defensively. They allow more than they score. As a double-digit favourite to the lowly Raiders, they barely slipped by. That was followed by a loss to the Dolphins. Both of those games were on home turf. Indianapolis does not travel well, having lost five road games by 10 or more last year. Now this suspect squad must head out to play a motivated 49ers bunch, coming off an embarrassing loss on national TV. The Niners are tough as nails at this park, losing just once here last season and covering both times they were listed in this price range. With Indy’s pass protection going from bad to worse, expect the 49ers to wreak havoc in the Colts’ backfield. TAKING: 49ERS –10
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Chargers (1-1) at Titans (1-1)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Last year’s rag-tag Chargers hammered the Titans by a 38-10 count. Is this year’s Tennessee team improved enough to now be giving away points to a San Diego squad that seems to have elevated its game? We hardly think so. While Tennessee’s defence may be adequate, the offence is ridiculously pedestrian. QB Jake Locker has passed for a measly 273 combined in two games while “prized” running back Chris Johnson is averaging a puny 3.3 yards per carry and has yet to score a touchdown. Chargers have battled against two good offences and QB Philip Rivers appears to have his groove back. TAKING: CHARGERS +3
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Browns (0-2) at Vikings (0-2)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Browns traded what many thought was their best offensive players this week and the resulting departure of Trent Richardson has caused this number to rise. That works for us. Teams that are 0-2 against the spread and then are asked to win by a touchdown has been a losing proposition over the years. If nothing else, the Browns can play defence. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out stacking eight in the box to stop Vikings star RB Adrian Peterson and forcing QB Christian Ponder to go skyward to beat you. If the Browns were taking 6½ to the Ravens, should they be taking the same to this opponent? TAKING: BROWNS +6½
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Buccaneers (0-2) at Patriots (2-0)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bucs are a mess. There is friction between players and coaches, while an 0-2 start doesn’t help. Both games could have easily been won. They are the most penalized team in the NFL with 23 fouls and counting. However, the Patriots have some issues of their own. Different issues, but issues nonetheless. Unlike a head cold, what ails New England isn’t likely to pass any time soon. QB Tom Brady has performed magic throughout his illustrious career, but he is clearly frustrated with an inexperienced and underperforming group of receivers. Until that changes, we’ll fade the Pats in this price range. TAKING: BUCCANEERS +7
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Rams (1-1) at Cowboys (1-1)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Even though the Cowboys have covered both of their games thus far, they can’t be trusted. They are disorderly and poorly coached. A team that claimed they wanted a more balanced attack and was committed to the run, Dallas ran 16 times last week compared to 49 drop backs in last week’s loss to the Chiefs. The ’Boys failed to even attempt a running play in the fourth quarter. Can’t be trusted. Dallas has covered just four of its past 17 games at home. St. Louis is young, but athletic, and should have some fun chasing QB Tony Romo around. This one stays close. TAKING: RAMS +3½
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Texans (2-0) at Ravens (1-1)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston needed overtime to knock off the visiting Titans last week prior to mustering up a huge second half in its opener to take down the Chargers. We’re not sure if that early resume qualifies them to be favoured when visiting the world champions. With an array of talent littered throughout their roster, the Texans still don’t scare anyone. Baltimore will not lack motivation for this one as Houston handed them a most humiliating 43-13 thrashing in Texas last season. The Ravens are well-coached and they are quickly adapting to the personnel changes that have fallen upon them. It’s a tough one, but the home side gets the nod. TAKING: RAVENS +2½
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Cardinals (1-1) at Saints (2-0)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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If you haven’t looked, there have been a lot of close games in the NFL in the early going. If you’re going to give away a converted touchdown these days, you’d better be quite confident in the disparity between the two teams. While the Saints may be the more publicized team, Arizona is not the weak group that we’ve grown accustomed to the past few seasons. This matchup could work well for the Cardinals as their feisty and talented secondary can keep this one within a score. We can’t ignore New Orleans’ stellar home record, but we’ve got enough wiggle room to endorse the doggie. TAKING: CARDINALS +7
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Green Bay (1-1) at Cincinnati (1-1)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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If you aren’t familiar with the host side, let us introduce you: Ladies and gentlemen, meet the Cincinnati Bengals. They beat the teams they are supposed to beat. They lose to everyone else. It’s been that way for a while now and we don’t see it changing any time soon. The Packers are an upper-tier team, led by an MVP quarterback. Despite losing, Green Bay fared well in San Francisco before coming home to pummel the Redskins. They’ll now have the pleasure of not facing a read-option quarterback and, given that the defences are nearly equal, we’d much rather back Aaron Rodgers than counterpart Andy Dalton. TAKING: PACKERS –2½
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N.Y. Giants (0-2) at Panthers (0-2)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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One is a rock, the other a hard place. One of these teams will end the day at 0-3. While the Panthers have found distinct ways to lose, the Giants have simply not performed well. The G-men have suffered from turnover-itis but, additionally, the defence is not the daunting unit that’s been its trademark. With Jason Pierre-Paul still not right after back surgery, the Giants have just five sacks in their last seven games dating back to last November. The defence as a whole seems to be a step behind. That should work well for the Panthers, who employ the first read-option QB that New York will see. TAKING: PANTHERS –1
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Falcons (1-1) at Dolphins (2-0)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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There’s nothing fishy about these Dolphins. Perhaps they haven’t faced the toughest competition so far, but winning both games on the road to open the year has the Dolphins back on the football map. Now they head home to face an Atlanta team that will limp into Sun Life stadium to face a physical Miami bunch. The Falcons are soft at the best of times. Two important defensive players were put on IR this week as LB Sean Witherspoon and DE Kroy Biermann are both gone. Atlanta also lost starting RB Steven Jackson and FB Bradie Ewing. A solid Miami team is being sold short here and we’ll take advantage. TAKING: DOLPHINS -2
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Jaguars (0-2) at Seahawks (2-0)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Since the mid-’80s, only nine teams have been favoured by 19 points or more. The underdogs are typically bottom-dwelling teams with little to no appeal. Yet they’ve managed to cover eight of the past nine times they were lined up this way. Every stat, tangible and intangible in the football world, acknowledges the Seahawks as the far superior team. However, this is a game of emotion and no matter what a player’s brain tells them, there is a subconscious component that tends to let down against very inferior opponents. After smacking out its biggest rival last week, Seattle could fall victim. We’ll close our eyes and plug our noses in support of this unattractive mutt. TAKING: JAGUARS +19
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Bears (2-0) at Steelers (0-2)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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It’s not often that the Pirates are the talk of Pittsburgh this time of year. With the Steelers not up to their usual standards, their adoring public are suddenly down on them. That’s a good time for us to step in. Spotting seven points just a week ago at home, Pittsburgh is now receiving a few points on its own field. A winless start to the season has aided the unexpected pointspread, but we’re not sure it’s warranted. The Bears are undefeated, but could easily be 0-2 after squeezing out a couple of fortunate wins. Pittsburgh’s offence may get a big boost with TE Heath Miller returning to action. TAKING: STEELERS +2½
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Raiders (0-2) at Broncos (2-0)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Bookies are not in the business of giving away money. While there aren’t many statistical reasons for backing the Raiders here, there are variables that make it palatable. Oakland can play some defence. The team gets up for this hated division rival. It helps Oakland’s cause that the Broncos keep losing key guys, most notably LT Ryan Clady this week, whose job it is to protect Denver’s most precious possession. Denver still lacks a running game and the defensive will face its first running quarterback of the year. The Raiders have a long way to go, but with their positive attitude and appearing in their only prime-timer of the year, they can find a way to cover. TAKING: RAIDERS +14½
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Detroit (+2) 26 WASHINGTON 21FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Lions come into this game off of a 25-21 loss to the Cardinals in Arizona that was a pretty evenly matched game statistically. Detroit is a talented team but at times they suffer from a lack of discipline and poor coaching, and as a result they tend to make foolish mistakes. Last week demonstrated a prime example as they missed multiple makeable field goals and had 8 penalties for 101 yards in the 4 point loss. Reggie Bush was banged up and the Lions run game was ineffective with just 49 yards on 20 carries so they had to rely on their passing game, which is very good when their receivers hold onto the ball.
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The Redskins played another poor first half last week and trailed 24-0 at halftime to the Packers before losing 38-20. So far this year the Redskins have been outscored 50-0 (their 7 points in the Eagles game was the result of a defensive TD) in the first half in their two games combined. They have played better in the second half in both games but that has been against defenses that were protecting large leads. When the game has been in its early competitive stages, the Redskins have not shown up. Their offense has been limited and their defense has played terribly. They have played two tough games (one versus Chip Kelly’s newly unveiled offense and the next in Green Bay against one of the best teams in the league off of a loss) but their lack of competitiveness in the first half is telling.
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I don’t like the matchups here for the Redskins and my numbers show advantages across the board for the Lions. My ratings favor the Lions in this game by around 3.5 points and I have several systems that play on the Lions here (a 239-143 situation that plays on the Lions and a separate negative 160-259 situation that plays against the Redskins.) Dr. Bob has also been nice enough to supply a couple of other situations (109-43-1 and 68-23-3) that support the Lions. The Redskins have problems in the secondary with several young players attempting to get acclimated to the speed and talent at this level and they face a very good passing game here with the best receiver in the NFL in Calvin Johnson. I am aware that the Lions face divisional foes the next two weeks but coming off a loss I expect that they will be focused here. I like the Lions.
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Arizona (+7) 22 NEW ORLEANS 28FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cardinals have been competitive so far this season in losing a close game to the Rams in St. Louis and then beating an improved Lions team in Arizona last week. Defensively, they have been very difficult to run against as they have allowed an average of just 58 yards per game at 2.6 yards per carry. The Saints are not a particularly strong running team (78 yards at 3.3 YPC) so far this year and making a team become one-dimensional (as the Cardinals may here) is generally not a good thing. What has been surprising to me so far is how well the Saints defense has played the pass. While their run defense has not been good (allowing 124 yards per game at 5.4 yards per carry), their pass defense has limited the Falcons and the Bucs to an average of just 196 yards at 6.1 yards per pass.
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My ratings favor the Saints here by 6.5 points with good passing advantages on both sides offensively. There is some concern for the Cardinals as their most explosive offensive weapon (Larry Fitzgerald) has been hobbled with a hamstring injury and had to pull himself out of the game in the third quarter last week. If he can’t go or if he is limited in any way it is a major issue for the Cardinals. This is also a 10AM PST start for the Cardinals and while I’m not sure exactly how big of a deal that is, it certainly doesn’t help. I do have a 637-462-40 situation that plays on the Cardinals here, but this game to me is really a toss-up so I will lean with the Cardinals based on the situation and the slight line difference.
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St. Louis (+3.5) 26 DALLAS 24FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis comes into this game off of a 31-24 loss to the Falcons in a game that they made close late, after trailing 24-3 at halftime. The Rams outgained Atlanta overall 421 yards at 5.8 yards per play to 394 yards at 6.6 yards per play but after reviewing the game the Rams seemed to be a bit outclassed in this spot. Overall the Rams appear to be about an average team as they beat the Cardinals at home in Week 1 as expected and lost to the Falcons in Atlanta in Week 2 as expected. After the first two games, they are averaging 5.83 yards per play and giving up 6.02 yards per play. Their rush offense and their pass defense has not been good but their pass offense and their rush defense has.
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The Cowboys are now 1-1 after a 17-16 loss to the Chiefs in Kansas City in a game where they just couldn’t make the big play when they needed it as they were just 3-11 on third down. They were terrible running the ball with just 38 yards on 15 carries, and they were not good defending the run as they Chiefs gained 114 yards on 25 carries for 4.6 yards per rush. They fumbled the ball away twice while the Chiefs committed no turnovers in the game. So far on the season the Cowboys appear to be a below average team from the line of scrimmage, averaging just 4.89 yards per play offensively while giving up 6.44 yards per play on defense.
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My ratings on this game favor the Cowboys by a point (not accounting for situations) and matchup analysis suggests offensive passing game advantages for both offenses with limited rushing success. The Rams do qualify in a 637-462-40 situation and benefit from a negative 160-259-16 situation that plays against the Cowboys here. Dr. Bob has also passed along a couple of other situations that favor the Rams here (37-15, 109-43-1 and an 8-35-2 system that plays against the Cowboys). I like the Rams plus the points.
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Tampa Bay (+7) 20 NEW ENGLAND 24FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bucs enter this game off of a home loss to the Saints that they let slip away. After gaining the lead 14-13 in the 4th quarter on a Mason Foster 85 yard interception return for a TD, the Bucs missed a field goal with 1:06 remaining and gave the ball back to Drew Brees with 1:06 left on the clock and no timeouts. He quickly drove the Saints 54 yards and for the second week in a row the Bucs lose on a last second game winning FG. The Bucs passing offense was not good as Josh Freeman completed 9 of 22 passes for 113 yards, but RB Doug Martin played well and ran for 144 yards. The Bucs defense did its part in holding the Saints to 5.4 yards per play, sacking Brees four times and intercepting him twice.
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New England played a poor game at home against the Jets but came away with a 13-10 victory as Geno Smith threw 3 fourth quarter interceptions which snuffed out several Jets scoring opportunities. Defensively, the Jets played well in shutting down the Patriots from the line of scrimmage and held them overall to just 234 yards and 3.7 yards per play. The same can be said for the Patriots as they sacked Smith four times and were +4 in turnover differential, holding the Jets to 318 total yards and 4.5 yards per play.
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These teams spent time together in training camp, holding three joint practices and facing each other in the second preseason game so each team knows their opponents personnel well. With the Bucs coming off two last second losses and lots of talk swirling about the QB and the coach, the Bucs could be distracted here. However, this is not the same Patriots team we are used to seeing and the Buccaneers are 10 seconds away from being 2-0. My ratings have this game lined around 4 so I see some line value here with Tampa Bay. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game so based on the ratings I will lean with the Bucs.
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Cleveland (+6) 19 MINNESOTA 23FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Browns are a team with a new QB this week as Brian Hoyer takes over for the injured and ineffective Brandon Weeden. New Browns GM Michael Lombardi likes Hoyer and has been impressed with him since his preseason showings in New England so it is not a surprise to me that he leapfrogged Jason Campbell to get the start. I’m not sure that he will give up the job either if he plays well. The Browns offense so far this year has been bad, averaging just 275 yards per game at 4.1 yards per play and only 8 points per game. Defensively, however, they have actually played pretty well, holding opponents to 288 total yards and 4.4 yards per play. They have been particularly good up front as they have limited their opponents to just 62 rushing yards per game at 2.3 yards per rush. They also get playmaking 2nd year WR Josh Gordon back this week after he served a 2 game suspension to start the season to hopefully add a vertical stretch element to their offense.
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Minnesota comes into this game off of a tough 31-30 loss to division rival Chicago in a game that they found themselves with the lead late but just couldn’t hold on. Christian Ponder played marginally better than last week, but the Vikings had to settle for two field goals in the red zone late in the game that could have made a difference in the outcome. They also benefitted from defensive and special teams touchdowns as once again the passing offense fell short.
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I don’t have any situations on this game and my ratings only favor the Vikings by about 3.5 points so there appears to be some value on the Browns. I don’t know how Hoyer will play but I expect him to be an upgrade over Brandon Weeden, who I do not have rated very highly. I’m also not sure what the effect of trading RB Trent Richardson is on the psyche of the team, as it may offer the perception from management that they are not making decisions in the best interest of the team to win this season. No real strong feeling on this one but I will lean with the Browns plus the points based on my ratings.
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Green Bay (-3) 26 CINCINNATI 22FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Packers come into this game after beating the Redskins 38-20 last week at Lambeau in a game that they led 24-0 at halftime. They dominated from the start and for the first time in NFL history a team had a 450 yard passer and a 125 yard rusher in the same game. Overall, they rolled up 583 total yards at 8.7 yards per play while giving up 423 yards at 7.4 yards per play to the Redskins, although much of the Redskins total was gained in the second half after they trailed by three scores.
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Cincinnati enters this contest off of a big Monday Night Football win versus division rival Pittsburgh 20-10. The Bengals outgained the Steelers 407 to 278 total yards while limiting the Steelers rushing attack to just 44 yards at 2.8 yards per carry. The also had both a turnover differential and sack differential of +2. So far this season, the Bengals have played excellent rush defense in holding opponents to an average of 64 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry.
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The Packers should be focused on this game as they come off of an easy home win last week and look forward to a bye next week while the Bengals are in a divisional sandwich as they beat the Steelers on MNF last week and next head to Cleveland to play the Browns. My ratings have the Packers favored here by about four points but they have been banged up in the defensive backfield and have given up an NFL worst 8.8 yards per pass. I don’t have any situations that apply here but based on the ratings difference and the spot, I lean with the Packers minus the small number.
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San Diego (+3) 23 TENNESSEE 24FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chargers enter this contest off of a 33-30 win in Philadelphia against the Eagles as a 7.5 point dog. It was the first of two 10AM PST start time games for the Chargers in back to back weeks. Offenses on both sides dominated with a combined 1051 yards from scrimmage and 63 points scored as the Chargers had the ball last and scored on a 46 yard field goal to win it with 7 seconds left. As fast as the Eagles were on offense (59 plays in 19:43), the Chargers controlled the clock on sustained drives (77 plays in 40:17) and wore down the Eagles defense. Rivers completed 12 of 13 passes on third down and converted 8 of those into first downs. Defensively, the Chargers were burned multiple times by DeSean Jackson (9 catches for 193 yards) and had several long pass play near misses.
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Tennessee comes off of a loss in overtime to the Texans in a game where they were outgained by nearly 200 yards (452 to 248) and held to 3.7 yards per play. Jack Locker was not very good overall in completing 17 of 30 passes for 129 yards and just 3.8 yards per pass while being sacked four times. However, to his credit he did put together an impressive 99 yard TD drive to put the Titans in the lead late in the game before losing in OT. After a solid showing in Week 1, the Titans run defense was beaten badly by the Texans ground game as they racked up 172 yards at 6.1 yards per carry.
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My ratings favor the Titans in this game by around 2.5 points while matchup analysis predicts a good passing advantage for the Chargers. Dr. Bob has passed along a couple of situations that apply to this game that favor the Chargers that are 68-23-3 and 47-17-2 and as a result I will lean with the Chargers.
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Houston (-2.5) 26 BALTIMORE 20FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Texans enter this contest 2-0 after escaping last week with a 30-24 OT victory against division rival Tennessee. It was a game won decisively from a statistical perspective once again although the scoreboard reflects a much closer type game. This is very similar to what happened in Week 1 against the Chargers, where the stat line was one sided but the final score was close. In fact, the Texans enter this game with the 2nd largest positive yards per play differential in the league through the first two games (they average 5.9 YPPL and average giving up 4.3 YPPL). So, although the final scores were close in both games, from the line of scrimmage this team has been excellent and may be a bit undervalued as a result.
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Baltimore overcame a sloppy and poorly played first half last week against the Browns where they trailed 6-0 at halftime to eventually win at home 14-6. They were not overly impressive in doing it, however, as they averaged only 4.4 yards per play for 299 total yards while giving up 259 yards at 4.2 yards per play to the Browns. The defense played well overall in registering five sacks and hitting Brandon Weeden 12 times while holding the Browns rushing attack to just 65 yards at 3.3 yards per carry. Overall, after two games the Ravens are tied for third with the largest negative yards per play differential (they average 4.5 yards per play while giving up 6.0 yards per play).
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The Texans qualify in several situations this week including a 637-462-40 system that plays on them and a negative 160-259 situation that plays against the Ravens. My ratings say that the current number is about right (-2.5) but matchup analysis suggests a significant advantage in the Texans favor offensively when passing the ball. I like the Texans here minus the points.
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MIAMI (-2.5) 25 Atlanta 21FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dolphins enter this game 2-0 after beating the Colts in Indianapolis in Week 2 (where they were 7-1 last year). Ryan Tannehill played very well and the Miami defense did just enough to keep the Colts out of the end zone on their final drive to preserve the win. Miami rushed the ball better than Week 1 after working on their run game all week and adjusting their zone blocking scheme to better fit their personnel. They are still averaging just 62 yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry on the season but I expect this area to improve. They are passing the ball well averaging 287 yards and 7.2 yards per pass. On defense, they are allowing 5.2 yards per play overall but their run defense took a step back last week after a strong Week 1 as they let the Colts run for 133 yards and 5.1 yards per carry.
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Atlanta comes into this game after a 31-24 home win versus the Rams where they could not generate any rushing offense (37 yards at 2.5 yards per carry), especially after Steven Jackson left with an injury. Outside of Steven Jackson, four other Falcons suffered injury in the game including Asante Samuel, Kroy Biermann, Bradie Ewing and Sean Weatherspoon. With key players injured and vulnerability on the offensive line the Falcons will face a tough test this week against the Dolphins and a strong front seven.
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Both teams play in primetime games next week as the Falcons host the Patriots on Sunday night football and the Dolphins go to New Orleans Monday night. The Falcons are not quite the same on the road as they are 8-13 SU as a dog under Mike Smith and the Dolphins were 5-3 SU last year at home. My ratings and matchup analysis don’t show significant edges here at the current number but there is a 18-55-2 situation the applies which plays against the Falcons. Without a strong opinion either way, I will lean with the Dolphins based on the situation.
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Jacksonville (+19) 12 SEATTLE 30FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jaguars have been a disaster so far in 2013 and through two games have the largest negative yards per play differential in the league (they average 3.3 YPPL offensively while giving up 5.2 YPPL on defense). Those stats likely won’t improve this week as they face the team with the second largest point differential in the league so far in the Seattle Seahawks. Last week against the Raiders they were dominated at the line of scrimmage as QB Henne was sacked five times while rushing for just 34 yards at 1.8 yards per carry. On defense, they allowed the Raiders to rush for 226 yards at 6.6 yards per carry. They finished the game offensively with only 248 total yards and many of those yards and their only offensive TD came late, after the game was out of reach.
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The Seahawks, meanwhile, asserted themselves as possibly the best team in the NFC last week with a thrashing of the 49ers in Seattle by the score of 29-3. They held the 49ers offense, which appeared to be unstoppable in Week 1, to just 207 total yards at 4.1 yards per play while registering three sacks and five turnovers. The Seahawks defense has played lights out so far this season as they are only averaging giving up 225 total yards at 4.5 yards per play and surrendering 5 points per game!
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This game is obviously a huge mismatch with a deservedly gigantic line. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game and my ratings favor the Seahawks here by 21 points. That being said, I will lean with the Jaguars plus the points as the Seahawks are in a bit of a trap game and I don’t believe they will bring their best effort here. The reason is that the Seahawks are coming off of a big emotional win against their divisional rivals on Sunday night and next week travel to Houston to take on a strong Texans team at 10AM PST. They are also facing their former DC Gus Bradley who is in his first year as HC of the Jaguars. He knows the personnel and schemes well from his days there. I can’t imagine the Seahawks being laser focused here and that is enough for me to lean with the Jags at such a large number.
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Indianapolis (+10) 20 SAN FRANCISCO 28SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indianapolis is a team that many had overvalued entering 2013 after an 11-5 record and playoff appearance in 2012 where they outplayed their stats. So far this year they have not been impressive in beating the Raiders at home in Week 1 in a game that they could have lost, and then losing last week to the Dolphins at home. They now begin a road trip where they play three of the next four away where they went 4-5 last year (including playoffs), losing by an average of 18 to 28.5.
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The 49ers com off of a beating at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks in a big Sunday night divisional game where they were also embarrassed last season. Their passing offense, which looked very good against the Packers in Week 1, was held completely in check by the best pass defense in the NFL. Overall, they gained just 207 yards at 4.1 yards per play. Defensively they played fairly well themselves as they held the Seahawks offense to 292 total yards and 4.3 yards per play. Their downfall, as is generally the case in lopsided losses, was turnover differential (-4).
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I do have some technical support for the Colts here (153-67-8 and 239-143-8 situations and 37-15 and 26-2-1 situations that Dr. Bob has added) but it’s not enough for me to play against the 49ers in this spot as Jim Harbaugh is 7-0 and 5-2 ATS off a loss. In addition, the loss of RG Donald Thomas (possibly their best offensive lineman) won’t help an already porous offensive line that has had some problems protecting Andrew Luck against a very good San Francisco front seven. There are some interesting subplots to this game as well as the Colts just traded for Browns RB Trent Richardson and he will likely play some. The other is that Indy is quarterbacked by Andrew Luck, who played for Harbaugh at Stanford and so there is familiarity here. Slight lean to the Colts.
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PITTSBURGH (+2.5) 20 Chicago 19FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago comes into this game off of a late come from behind victory over the division rival Minnesota Vikings in a game that Chicago won despite allowing both a special teams and defensive touchdown. They did, however, benefit from 80 and 78 yard kickoff returns by Devin Hester in the first half. The Bears appear to be improved this year, especially on offense, due in part to an improved offensive line that is giving Cutler more time to throw the ball than what he has been used to in the recent past, although they did not play as well in Week 2 as they did opening day versus the Bengals. Their improvement offensively is demonstrated by that fact that they are averaging 6 yards per play, which is higher than the league average of 5.48.
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The Steelers enter this game 0-2 for the first time since 2002 after losing a divisional matchup on Monday Night Football versus the Bengals 20-10. Entering the game after losing some key players to injury last week, the Steelers struggled versus a good Bengals defense that held them to 278 total yards and only 44 yards rushing. Through the first two games of the season, the Steelers rank 28th in Yards Per Play, averaging only 4.38 and there are already grumblings of dissatisfaction between offensive players and OC Todd Haley. Fortunately, the Steelers still field one of the best defensive teams in football as they rank 6th in Defensive Yards Per Play. The problem has been in the past, and continues to be, that they just don’t generate turnovers on defense as already this year they are -4 in turnover differential.
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The Bears are an improved team here but may be a bit overvalued heading into this game against one of the most consistently good and proud franchises in the NFL. My ratings in this game actually favor the Steelers by about half a point in this spot, and I don’t have any situations that apply to this game. Matchups project a low scoring game with neither offense being able to do much. I lean to the Steelers.
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DENVER (-15) 33 Oakland 17FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Raiders come into this game with a win under their belts as they defeated the mighty Jacksonville Jaguars 19-9 at home last week. The Raiders were dominant in this game and that is evidenced by the divergent rushing numbers exhibited here; 226 yards at 6.6 yards per rush for the Raiders to 34 yards at 1.8 yards per rush for the Jags. The Raiders played the Colts very well in Indy in Week 1 also, and after two weeks have a huge rushing advantage against their opponents thus far. The Raiders are averaging 198 yards rushing at 5.9 yards per rush while giving up just 81 yards rushing at 3.8 yards per rush. Their passing game is still a work in progress as QB Pryor is averaging just 158 yards passing at 5.5 yards per pass.
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Meanwhile, the Broncos look like the cream of the crop as they steamrolled their second consecutive opponent in the 2nd half. After taking a slim 10-9 lead into the break, the Broncos proceeded to score 31 second half points against the Giants (very similar to Week 1 versus the Ravens where they trailed 17-14 at half, then scored 35 2nd half points). Whatever adjustments they are making at halftime seem to be working fairly well. After two games they have the largest positive yards per play differential in the league (they average 6.9 yards per play on offense and give up 4.9 yards per play on defense) while also having the largest positive point differential (averaging around 45 points scored to 25 points against). What makes these stats more impressive is that they were put up against pretty good competition in the Giants and the Super Bowl Champion Ravens and without top CB Champ Bailey and pass rushing maven Von Miller.
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As you might expect, matchup analysis shows significant advantages for the Broncos in every area and my ratings favor them here by about 16 points. The Broncos won last year at home versus the Raiders 37-6 but this is a little bit of a different Raiders team. Their defense appears to be improved and they are rushing the ball and stopping the run fairly well. Denver should be ready to roll in this game as it is at home in primetime on Monday Night Football. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game and don’t have a real strong opinion either way, but based on the modest line difference I will lean with the Broncos minus the points.
Bryan Power
Green Bay vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Green Bay
Both teams here rebounded nicely from Week 1 defeats with double digit victories in Week 2. But the Packers win was far more convincing than the Bengals and they have Aaron Rodgers. I think that will be the big difference Sunday for Green Bay, who we are still able to get laying less than a field goal at some shops.......
I don't think most people realize that overall Cincinnati is probably a better team than Green Bay, at least when you break the two teams down position by position. The Bengals certainly have a stronger defense. On offense, they have WR AJ Green. But the one position the Packers have a major advantage at is the most important of all and that's quarterback. If you put Aaron Rodgers on Cincinnati, I think you'd have a 14-2 team that would rip through the AFC, yes even Peyton Manning and the Broncos. I think the discrepancy at QB w/ Rodgers over Andy Dalton is enough to carry the road team to a win and cover here.
Rodgers was at his best last week vs Washington, throwing for 480 yards and four touchdowns, completing 32 of 48 passes. Green Bay led 38-7 entering the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Cincinnati struggled to get by a bad Pittsburgh team at home, winning only 20-10. It is clear that Dalton is the weak link of the Bengals team. They probably should have won by more. The short week doesn't help Cincy here either. There was no shame in the Packers losing at San Francisco in Week 1. They are a little bit better at this point than the Bengals.
Will Rogers
Cleveland vs. Minnesota
Pick: Under
My first two free plays for the NFL season have both been playing 'Under' on the Cleveland Browns. Both plays won rather easily. After scoring only 10 points in an opening week loss to Miami, the Browns managed even less last week vs. the Ravens (six). With the trade of Trent Richardson, things now look even bleaker.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Browns Tanking? - When we all woke up on Wednesday, Cleveland was probably the second worst team in the league. By the end of the day, they somehow managed to get worse! It started with the announcement that starting QB Brandon Weeden (thumb) would not play Sunday. Rather than make the logical decision of turning to backup Jason Campbell, a veteran with plenty of starting experience, the team will instead go with third-stringer Brian Hoyer, who makes his just second ever career NFL start. Things then went from bad to worse as the team dealt RB Trent Richardson to the Colts in exchange for a 1st round draft pick. For those keeping score at home, the Browns may now be the weakest team in the league at every offensive skill position! At least they have a good defense though!
2. Christian Ponder - There aren't going to be many times when the Vikings have an edge at QB this season, but Week 3 will be one of them. That's not to compliment Ponder here, but rather it's an indictment of the Browns' current situation. In two games this season, Ponder already has four interceptions and has thrown for just 463 yards.
3. X-Factor - In Minnesota's 31-30 loss to the Bears last week, there were three non-offensive touchdowns in the game. Take those away and put them against a foe that's inept offensively and I just don't see many points being scored here.
Ben Burns
Giants vs. Panthers
Pick: Panthers
The general feeling about the Giants seems to be: "... they always start slowly; they'll be OK ..."
However, I'm not so sure that's the case this season.
True, the Giants are going to be extremely hungry to avoid falling to 0-3. The same can be said for the Panthers though, another team which can ill afford another loss.
Added motivation for the Panthers stems from the fact that the Giants hammered them here last season.
The Giants have some issues on their offensive line. Coughlin acknowledged as much: ""We're certainly not knocking them back off the ball."
While they're having real trouble running the ball, the Giants have also given up more passing yards (390.5 per game) and more points (38.5 per game) than any other team. Part of that can be attributed to the fact that they had to face Peyton Manning last week - but it also stems from the fact that they've been unable to consistently get pressure on opposing QBs.
Meanwhile, Eli has been intercepted seven times.
I think the Giants' problems may prove to be a little bigger than most believe. I also think that the Panthers are likely a little better than a lot of people probably realize. That said, with the pointspread essentially a non-factor, the home team looks worthy of consideration.
Marc Lawrence
Cleveland vs. Minnesota
Pick: Cleveland
The Vikes dropped a heartbreaker at Chicago last week, dropping to 0-2 on the season, and 0-2 ITS (In The Stats) as well. It marks the 4th time in the past six years Minnesota is winless heading into Game Three, while Cleveland trumps them by one, opening 0-2 for the 5th time since 2008. While deuces are wild in this contest, we're not wild about the Vikes and their chances today. Not only do they fall into the same scheduling scenario outlined above for the Titans, Minny is just 3-10 ITS since Game Seven of the season last year, and 3-9 ATS as a favorite of less than 6 points under Leslie Frazier. On the other side of the coin, the blue-collar Browns have yet to allow 300 yards under new mentor Rob Chudzinski and just traded star RB Trent Richardson for a No.1 pick in next year's draft. Look for a unified effort from players who suddenly realize they must produce or they'll be headed out. Cleveland's 6-1 ATS in their young franchise history away from home against winless teams off back-to-back losses adds fuel to the fire. Minnesota's achy-breaky heartache continues. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.
Art Aronson
Arizona vs. New Orleans
Pick: Arizona
The visiting Arizona Cardinals are 1-1 but could easily be 2-0 as week 1’s defeat to the Rams was on a last minute field goal. The Cardinals did win their home opener in St. Louis with an impressive 25-21 win over the Detroit Lions. QB Carson Palmer was 22-for-39 for 248 yards, one TD and one INT. Rashard Mendenhall had 55 yards on five carries to go with a touchdown. It took a last minute drive by Drew Brees to set up field goal for the New Orleans Saints to narrowly edge out Tampa Bay 16-14 and move to 2-0 in the process. Brees finished 26/46 for 322 yards, one TD and two INTs. Jimmy Graham had 10 receptions for 179 yards. The Cardinals are now 2-0 ATS this season under new head coach Bruce Arians. Carson Palmer has brought some stability to the offense that has actually given the pretty good Arizona defense a break unlike past seasons. The Saints didn’t look overly impressive in Tampa but are 2-0 and the rightful favorites at home here. Still, the Arizona is a more complete football team than we have seen in years and should not be this much of an underdog. Grab the points here and be ecstatic if you get Arizona with the number straying about the touchdown point. The Saints have played two very close games versus divisional opponents and I fully expect a bit of a letdown here with Arizona coming into town. This game is likely to be a lot closer than many think.
Jesse Schule
Detroit vs. Washington
Pick: Over
“We have a team that you’re going to be proud of,” Shanahan said. “They have set the expectations: anything short of a Super Bowl is a failure.”
This was a comment from the Redskins coach back in August, but after an 0-2 start to the season, Shanahan might be fortunate if he his team can even compete for a playoff spot.
The Redskins defense was ranked the worst in the NFL against the pass in 2012, and they've been lit up for a combined 71 points in consecutive losses in the first two weeks of the 2013 season.
With the offensive juggernaut that is the Detroit Lions coming to town this week, the Skins are gonna be hard pressed to turn things around.
The Lions were far more dangerous on offense with a healthy Reggie Bush in a 34-24 victory over Minnesota in Week 1. Bush led the team with 101 yards on four catches, and another 90 yards on the ground. He missed the second half of last week's loss to Arizona with a knee injury, but an MRI shows no structural damage and he could be ready to go on Sunday.
Megatron had six receptions for 116 yards and a pair of TDs in Arizona, and he's gonna be a handful for this woeful Washington secondary.
The Lions defense hasn't exactly been watertight either, so I wouldn't expect a one-sided game, the home team should get it's fair share of points as well.
John Ryan
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots
Prediction: New England Patriots
The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by at least 10 points. All week long I have heard and read reports of the Patriots being the worst 2-0 team in the NFL. Brady has completed just five more passes than have been incomplete ones. They find ways to win no matter who is on the field. They are once again dominating the clock and their passing defense has been excellent. Although just two games, opposing QB have been limited to a 61.2 passer rating and Bucs QB Freeman is going to struggle. The Bucs can run the ball and the Patriots defense will allow that to a degree. Problem for the Bucs is that the Patriots are excellent at limited yards on first down creating advantages for themselves in 2nd and 3rd and long situations. I also believe Brady will have a huge day against a highly suspect Bucs secondary. Of the 48 passes completed by Brady 20 have been to Edelman. So, expect far better ball distribution form Brady to as many as 6 receivers in this game. Patriots are a resounding 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) after gaining 4 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Take the Patriots.
Stephen Nover
Detroit vs. Washington
Play: Under 49
If Robert Griffin III and Reggie Bush were both healthy, I wouldn't consider going under the total. But they aren't.
Griffin is working his way back into shape after missing the entire offseason and preseason following knee surgery. He has yet to display the running skills he had before the injury. Bush isn't likely to play greatly reducing the Lions' offense. If he does play, he won't be at 100 percent.
Both Griffin and the Lions offense are impacted by this game being played on grass. Griffin's lifetime quarterback percentage is down 20 points when playing on grass as opposed to artificial turf. The Lions are a carpet team. They were held to 21 at Arizona last week. The Lions are averaging just 17 points during their past three grass contests.
Neither team has good field goal kickers either. The Redskins are going with backup John Potter, who missed his only field goal try in the NFL last week. Lions kicker David Akers was horrible with San Francisco last year and he's been bad, too, with the Lions. He just may be washed up.
The Redskins' defense is better than perceived. The Redskins faced the Eagles in Week 1 and were caught flatfooted as other teams will be when they take on Philadelphia's fast break offense. Then the Redskins had to play the Packers in Green Bay last week. The Packers may have the best offense in football.
Washington's defense is healthier than what it was last year. The Lions are not intimidating away from home, especially when playing on grass and not having a healthy Bush.
Chip Chirimbes
San Diego Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Tennessee Titans -2½
The 'public' is over reacting to the Chargers win over the Eagles last week and they will get caught by an underrated Titans club that has played tough in both contest this season. Take Tennessee!
Brandon Shively
Rams vs. Cowboys
Play: Over 47
If the Rams had a legit running game, then they might be playoff contenders as they have opened up their passing game nicely in the first two weeks. Sure, they lost to Atlanta 31-24, but they were only outyarded 357-352. The speedsters Pettis and Austin were targeted 23 times in the game and they accounted for all 3 of Bradford's TD passes. So needless to say, they will test the Cowboy's secondary this afternoon. The Rams are 4th in the NFL in passing yards while we saw the Cowboys get lit up by Eli in week 1. A lot of those yards were garbage yards, but we feel the Rams will score today with little resistance. The Rams are 5-1 OVER the L4Y when the total is 46 or higher. We think that the Dallas defense is still a work in progress with the hiring of DC Monte Kiffin who had been the DC at USC with his son. We saw USC's defense regress in 201002012 and believe it might be time for Kiffin to hang his shoes up. Romo has weapons with Dez Bryant and we already saw Fitzgerald have a field day on the smaller cornerbacks of Saint Louis. There is only one play on this game and that is the OVER
Freddy Wills
Green Bay Packers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +3
The Bengals should easily be sitting at 2-0 after they were up double digits on the road against the Bears and if they did close that game out late we would have a different spread here in my opinion. It also hurt the Bengals that they looked poor on Monday night and now the public is rushing behind the Packers on the road. The Bengals had a tough match up against the Steelers defense with Ike Taylor having the physical ability to take A.J Green out of the game so I expect the offense to rebound here. I actually thought the fact that Dalton was forced to use his other weapons will only make them better for games where they have to put up points. Giovani Bernard and Tyler Eiffert both had big games and it is clear these two offensive rookies are going to have a positive impact on this game. The Packers are a one dimensional bunch especially without Laci. I know Starks looked great last week and he has fantasy football guru's going crazy, but the Redskins defense has been the worst in the league thus far. The Bengals are really strong up front ranking 3rd in sack % last year. They will be a tough bunch at home here while the Packers defense had to juggle their secondary with three injuries last week all who are questionable this week. A.J. Green should have a huge game as the Packers lack a guy that can shut him down like the Steelers.
Steve Janus
Atlanta Falcons +3
I was impressed with Atlanta’s ability to overcome some pretty serious injuries and still find a way to secure a win at home over St Louis. Miami’s 2-0 start has been impressive, but I still don’t get the feeling the Dolphins are an elite team. Atlanta is going to be extremely motivated to avoid going back under .500 with a home game against the Patriots looming next week. The Falcons are also going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder, knowing they are an underdog to a team that won a total of seven games last year.
The Falcons injuries are certainly a concern, but anytime you have an elite quarterback like Matt Ryan with the kind of weapons he has in the passing game, you always have a chance to win. Miami’s defense has looked good early, but I’m concerned with the play of their secondary. They allowed Brandon Weeden and Andrew Luck to throw for a combined 610 yards. What saved them is four interceptions by the two second-year signal callers.
Ryan knows how to take care of the football and I expect him to be on top of his game knowing the offense has to play well for them to win. Going back to last season, no quarterback has a better QBR on the road than Ryan. Atlanta's simply got more playmakers on the outside for Miami to contain. They have really struggled to guard the tight end and that's good news for one of the all-time greats in Tony Gonzalez.
There’s a solid system favoring the Falcons and their ability to take care of the football. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 are 63-31 (67%) ATS after a game where they didn’t commit a turnover and 47-18 (72.3%) ATS after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.
Jamie Tursini
San Diego Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Tennessee Titans -3
This is a great spot to go against the Chargers. They are in perfect position for a letdown. Off of Monday night's collapse in Week 1. Then travel back east on a short week and beat the Eagles (as 7 point dogs). Classic "letdown" spot without question going on the road again. They will have little to no emotion for this one. Lay the points.