Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is going to be the lay the double-digits with the 49ers as they come back home licking their wounds and host the Colts.
I know asking to cover double-digits in the NFL can be a dicey proposition, but after getting ambushed in Seattle under the Sunday night lights, I have a feeling that practice this week for Jim Harbaugh's team was not a box of chocolates.
Indy has not looked particularly good through their first pair of games this year, splitting straight up in home games against Oakland and Miami, while dropping both against the spread. Now they head out on the road and a sort of homecoming for Stanford QB Andrew Luck, and while Luck would like to impress, you have to keep in mind that Indianapolis was just 2-5 last season against the spread as a road dog, and are on a 5-10 overall slide as the road pup since 2011.
Trust the 49ers 14-4-1 spread mark at home their last 19, that includes their Week One cover against the Packers. Kaepernick has been chomping at the bit to get the bad taste of last week's stink-bomb performance out of his mouth.
Expect it to happen.
San Francisco by 2 TD's.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Brad Wilton
My free play for Sunday is the Under in the Bills-Jets game.
Buffalo's last seconds touchdown last Sunday at home to get the outright win over Carolina also put the game Over the total, as the Bills string of 3 straight Unders dating back to last season was snapped in those closing seconds.
I expect the Under to be the way to go once again though, as both the Bills and the Jets are starting rookie quarterbacks, and the points have been very hard to come by for the Jets thus far this season.
In their pair of games played, New York has come up with just 28 points scored, but on the flip side they have only allowed 30 points to be scored against them. That means that that not only have the Fly-Boys held Under the total in their first 2 games this year, but they have also now played Unders in 6 of their last 7 dating back to last season.
True, 4 of the last 6 series meetings between these AFC East division rivals have ended up going Over the total, but not today. Not this game.
Bills-Jets Under the total for Week 3.
1♦ BUFFALO-N.Y. JETS UNDER
Brett Atkins
On the heels of an easy winner in college football on Saturday, with Stanford handling Arizona State, my free pro winner for Sunday is on the Baltimore Ravens getting it done against the Houston Texans.
Houston is laying a cheap number on the road, and even though some would like to think the Texans are supposed to do more than the defending Super Bowl champs this season, there's a little bit of revenge with this game.
Last year, on Oct. 21, the Texans throttled Baltimore, 43-13, and something tells me the Ravens - those who are still around - haven't forgotten.
Also, this is an emotional game, as it marks the return of safety Ed Reed to Baltimore, so long as he is recovered from a hip injury that sidelined him the first two games. Reed signed with Houston as free agent after playing for Ravens from 2002-12.
The Ravens have won 13 straight home games in September and are 34-7 at home under coach John Harbaugh. Plus, Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco is 4-1 as a starter versus the Texans with seven touchdown passes.
I may sound like an optimist - maybe too much of one - but I like the Ravens to get it done today.
4♦ BALTIMORE
Chris Jordan
My free play for today is going to be on the Tennessee Titans, laying a field goal against the San Diego Chargers, who make another long trip, on back-to-back weeks. And you might as well buy the half point in this game, taking the Titans -2' rather than laying the 3.
I won't get too long-winded, or too statistical with this one, as I like this game for a couple of small intangibles away from this game.
First of all we go to last week with the Chargers-Eagles game, as Philadelphia ran out of gas and allowed the Bolts to spark a come-from-behind win. Most were impressed by the Chargers, whereas I saw a tired Eagles team that was playing its second game in seven days and then just played its third game in 11 days against the Chiefs. And when you're running the kind of offense Chip Kelly employs, you'll have a tired team to deal with. That's what we have with the Green Birds - a very tired team.
So did the Chargers actually win that game against a team playing 100 percent?
Now you have that same San Diego team coming home from Philadelphia last Sunday, and having to travel across the country to play in Nashville today, and the Bolts might be the one to fizzle without any kind of electricity in their game.
I'm just not ready to buy into the Chargers or Philip Rivers. Take the home team.
2♦ TENNESSEE
Scott Delaney
My free winner is on the New York Jets getting it done against the Buffalo Bills, as I think the Fly Boys are in a good spot to flex their muscle, control the entire tempo of a game and basically do what they're supposed to do in this game, and that is dominate from start to finish.
While this game is being hyped as the matchup of the first two quarterbacks selected in the NFL draft from back in April, with the Bills' EJ Manuel (No. 16 overall) and the Jets' Geno Smith (39th) battling, I think this game is about New York's defense and how well it has played, and how well it will play.
New York's defense is allowing the lowest completion percentage (48.6) in NFL, and has sparked some inspiring football, albeit we're just two games in and the Jets are only 1-1. I expect the Jets' stop unit to be the neutralizer against Manuel, who will be facing the No. 2 overall defense in the league, and sixth-best against the pass.
Smith is trying to go 2-0 at home, and comes in after a poor fourth quarter at New England, where he threw three interceptions. His 55.2 passer rating is 32nd in league - second-to-last among quarterbacks with at least 35 passing attempts - and that's why I'm not making much of this QB clash.
Rex Ryan is 7-2 at home in September games with the Jets, who have covered 5 of the last 7 meetings.
5♦ N.Y. JETS
OC Dooley
Texans / Ravens Over 44.5
In a last-second decision long time Baltimore star defensive back Ed Reed will be making his debut in a Houston uniform, but he is far from 100% effective due to a lingering hip injury. The key to this selection actually surrounds the SCHEDULE for Houston who after today will be hosting a pair of high-profile NFC West squads (Seahawks, 49ers) who as a national primetime audience saw a week ago have extremely physical defenses. The stop-unit of Baltimore is currently in transition minus a slew of veterans including the now retired Ray Lewis who was an emotional leader. Last Sunday the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens looked solid on defense in a very low scoring 14-6 home triumph, but that was against a lifeless Cleveland offense that stunningly traded star rusher Trent Richardson earlier this week. Today the Ravens face a more potent Houston attack that a year ago lit them up for 43 points on the scoreboard. The Texans have received excellent news as star wide receiver Andre Johnson (concussion) HAS been cleared to play. Since Gary Kubiak has been head coach Houston is 12-2 OVER/ROAD which makes the sheer location of today’s game crticial
Red Dog Sports
Jacksonville Jaguars +19½
Seattle is a great home team and they are off a solid home win vs. their rival, te 49ers. The Jaguars should be motivated as they are still a professional team and should stay within 14 to 17 points.