Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday September, 23

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Texas at Seattle
The Mariners look to build on their 6-1 record in Jason Vargas' last 7 starts against AL West teams. Seattle is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+125)

Game 951-952: Miami at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Nolasco) 14.412; NY Mets (Young) 14.831
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Under

Game 953-954: LA Dodgers at Cincinnati (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Harang) 13.841; Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.970
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.856; Washington (Wang) 15.516
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-145); Under

Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Houston (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Burnett) 13.322; Houston (Lyles) 14.887
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+120); Over

Game 959-960: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 15.087; Cubs (Germano) 14.138
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-175); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-175); N/A

Game 961-962: Arizona at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 14.190; Colorado (Francis) 14.653
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+130); Over

Game 963-964: San Diego at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 15.098; San Francisco (Petit) 17.200
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 965-966: Atlanta at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 16.439; Philadelphia (Lee) 15.707
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-155); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+135); Over

Game 967-968: Oakland at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Griffin) 15.782; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 16.205
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+135); Under

Game 969-970: Minnesota at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Diamond) 13.468; Detroit (Scherzer) 15.774
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Under

Game 971-972: Baltimore at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 14.560; Boston (Doubront) 15.055
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105); Over

Game 973-974: Toronto at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (*******) 13.910; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 16.003
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-220); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-220); Under

Game 975-976: Cleveland at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Huff) 14.791; Kansas City (Odorizzi) 14.397
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+110); Over

Game 977-978: Chicago White Sox at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 15.223; LA Angels (Weaver) 16.459
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-200); Underr

Game 979-980: Texas at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Dempster) 14.996; Seattle (Vargas) 15.895
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+125); Over

Game 981-982: Minnesota at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Walters) 14.609; Detroit (Smyly) 15.732
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Under

CFL

Calgary at Saskatchewan
The Roughriders look to build on their 6-2 ATS record in their last 8 September games. Saskatchewan is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+2)

Game 495-496: Toronto at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 113.699; Montreal 116.178
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 2 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Montreal by 4; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+4); Over

Game 497-498: Calgary at Saskatchewan (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 113.860; Saskatchewan 116.861
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 3; 56
Vegas Line: Calgary by 2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+2); Over

WNBA

Atlanta at Connecticut
The Dream look to take advantage of a Connecticut team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 Sunday game. Atlanta is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sun favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4 1/2)

Game 601-602: Minnesota at San Antonio (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 116.505; San Antonio 116.624
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 166
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 162 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+2 1/2); Over

Game 603-604: Seattle at Phoenix (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 110.890; Phoenix 101.544
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 9 1/2; 150
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 7 1/2; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-7 1/2); Under

Game 605-606: Tulsa at Indiana (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 108.839; Indiana 117.660
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 9; 147
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 7 1/2; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-7 1/2); Under

Game 607-608: Atlanta at Connecticut (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 112.988; Connecticut 115.808
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 3; 163
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 4 1/2; 159
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4 1/2); Over

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Survivor Pick – Week 3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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CHICAGO over St. LouisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hopefully, you heeded our advice last week and avoided the Patriots, who went down as a 14-pt choice and took approximately 50% of all survivor poolies with them. We’re mentioning that not as an ‘I told you so’ but because of our philosophy of not choosing the most obvious team each week. If you advance, it is with the masses. If you choose another and the big team goes down, you’re way ahead of the game.
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This week, we have a number of options to choose from. The Saints, Cowboys and 49ers are likely to get the majority of the play but we’re suggesting that one of those three teams could lose. One of our Survivor rules is to never play a road team so that rules out the 49ers.
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The Bears are coming off an embarrassing prime time loss at Green Bay in a game they never stood a chance in. Last season we saw a very similar situation for Chicago when they were sacked nine times in a Monday Night featured game. The very next week they were a slim 1-point choice in Minnesota. The result was a 39-10 clobbering of the Vikes. This week, the Chicago catch the Rams arriving off of two solid games. St. Louis nearly took down the Lions in Detroit in its opener and rallied last week to defeat the ‘Skins. Those two efforts have them overvalued here, while the Bears effort from a week ago has them undervalued. No doubt the Rams are improved and playing with more confidence under Jeff Fisher. However, they’re still a below average team that is likely to get whacked a few times this season. After consecutive intense games, playing at a tough Soldier Field, against a team that was embarrassed and is on 10 days rest, the Rams are really up against it this week. No upset here.
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Week 1 - N.Y. Jets √
Week 2 - Cincinnati √

Ben BurnsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo vs. Cleveland
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I like this play at 43 or higher. However, I like it considerably more at 44 or higher. Shop around for a 44. If that's not an option, consider waiting to see of your shop moves to 44 ...
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One reason for the generously high number is that both teams are off high-scoring games. A closer look reveals that the Bills' defense was vastly improved from Week 1 though. They limited the Chiefs to 17 points, just three threw three quarters.
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The Cleveland defense wasn't quite as bad as the score indicated in its game either. Although they gave up a lot of points, the Browns limited the Bengals to 80 yards on the ground and less than 300 through the air.
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It should be noted that the Browns' lone game here at Cleveland had a score of 17-16, a loss against the Eagles.
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The Browns have seen the "under" go 10-5 the last 15 times that they played a game where the pointspread fell in the +3 to -3 range. Don't be surprised if this one also proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting.

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Detroit vs. Tennessee
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It has been an ugly start to the season for the Tennessee Titans, who have lost in blowout fashion to both the New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers. But we feel that they are likely to break through with their first victory in Week 3, hosting the Detroit Lions. The Titans are fortunate to be getting points in this matchup as the Lions are a horrible 4-16 ATS the last 20 times they’ve laid points on the road, including a 1-9 ATS mark when laying three or less. We just don’t see Detroit being as good as they were a season ago when they started 5-0. Let’s not forget that that means they were just 5-6 SU down the stretch in 2011 with four of those wins coming against non-playoff teams. The only exception was beating Tim Tebow and Denver. After that, they lost three of the final four road games with the singular win coming against the Raiders by only one point. With back to back road games looming, followed by a home date with Pittsburgh, the Titans are a desperate team. A loss here and the wheels could really come off. Take note that Mike Munchak’s team is 38-17 ATS L55 vs. the NFC and 6-1 ATS when coming off a loss by 28 or more points! Home dogs went 5-1 ATS last week, winning straight up all five games they covered. Take Tennessee.

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St. Louis vs. Chicago
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While most are likely thinking the Bears will bounce back at home against the Rams, I see good value in the opposite direction.
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The Bears are coming off a very disappointing loss to the Packers that should have a lasting effect on Chicago. Jay Cutler showed he is still not ready to run the offense at a high enough level to be considered a serious contender. I understand it’s not all his fault that he was sacked seven times, but at least half of the four turnovers were balls he shouldn’t have thrown.
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I think what we can really take out of this game was that the Bears offensive line is still as poor as it was last year. Remember, it’s an O-line that also struggled in first game against the Indianapolis Colts.
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To make matters worse for Chicago’s offense, running back Matt Forte is out for a few weeks at least, with an ankle sprain. Forte is one of the few back in the league that are hard to replace. Last year Forte accounted for 33 percent of the Bears total offense and the team really struggled without him. I understand that Michael Bush is now there, however he doesn’t have the same catch and run ability as Forte does.
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The St. Louis Rams are coming in on a high- after winning a shootout against the Redskins 31-28. The week before, it took a huge comeback from a good team in Detroit for the Rams to lose their opener. Chicago meanwhile, has lost two of their last three games at home ATS.
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Sam Bradford has looked like the quarterback who turned heads back in his rookie season, not the one suffering from the “sophomore jinx,” last season. I understand that Chicago is no picnic to play in, but Bradford’s two week QB rating of 112 says he’s playing well enough to make it difficult on the Bears defense.
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I think a lot of the betting public is down on the Rams right now, because of previous season records, this a different team so far this year and they are surprising people. The Rams have won their last three games ATS.
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I think the Bears are being asked to cover too many points this week at home. Take the Rams plus the points.

Nick ParsonsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New Orleans -8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New Orleans is clearly missing something to this point. Whether it is the lack of defense, or the inept play calling, the fact remains that the Saints have not started the games with the offensive flow that they have been known for. Late surges in their first two games, they have shown that they still have the talent offensively, but even their most casual fan can see that they need to involve Marques Colston a lot earlier than the third quarter. The New Orleans D will want to make this a bounceback game after giving up at 29.5 pts per game thus far. Kansas City may be the team to ail the Saints D, with Jamaal Charles hurting after tweaking his knee last week, is probable, and after putting up their points in garbage time last week, the Chiefs have not been much of an offensive threat to date. It is clear that the Saints are missing the brain of Sean Peyton and his playcalling and instincts are a big part of an 'exciting' Saints team. We will back the Saints to cover the spread, and make up for the week one home loss to the Redskins, as Kansas City continues to look for their first win of the season.

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St Louis Rams +7.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The St Louis Rams, who have an uncanny ability to screw up in the front office just as much as on the actual playing field actually nailed one when they stepped up and hired Jeff Fisher to take over the reigns as head coach. Great hire and one that pissed off the cross state rival Chiefs who were also intensely interested in Fisher but got no love back from the coach. Just think how easily this Rams team could be undefeated going into this match up if not for the gut wrenching last minute loss opening weekend in Detroit. They showed maturity and grit by bouncing back last sunday and prevailing in a shoot out with RG3 and the Redskins. Now they venture north into Soldier Field to do battle with a Bears team reeling from a nationally televised spanking at the hands of their arch rivals, the Green Bay Packers. I look for the Rams to go toe to toe here with the Bears and keep this thing in serious question up to the end. Fishers feisty Rams are going to be hanging around to the end a lot this fall guys. I know some guys just love to have some sort of trend to help the cause and I've made it no secret my feeling on leaning too heavily on trends, it does not work. But hey, I do my due diligence fellas. The fact is Jay Cutler is a poor 16-23 against the number when taking the field in the role of favorite. Are the Beats the better club here? The answer is yes, will they cover the touchdown and hook? The answer is no.

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BALTIMORE -3 +110 over New England
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The talk this week is the unthinkable happening in the Patriots home-loss to Arizona as a 13½-point choice. This is a team that almost always bounces back from such defeats but we’re not so sure they have it in them this season. You might be a bit surprised to learn that the Ravens have lost only once in the last two years at home and with no defeats occurring last season.
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Tom Brady passed for a combined 950 yards and seven TD’s in the team’s first two games a season ago. This year, he’s passed for half that with just three scores. The Pats defense really hasn’t been tested with games against Tennessee and Arizona. They will be tested here and will likely be exposed as ordinary. We’ll find out this week if the Patriots are more fluff than stuff. This host won’t be short of motivation either, as the Ravens seek to avenge last year’s dramatic playoff loss to these foes in a game they were clearly the better team in. Pats rarely a dog but this line could end up being flattering.
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CLEVELAND +124 over Buffalo
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The Bills have been road kill for a while now. Buffalo hasn’t won an away game since its opener last year in Kansas City. Since then, they’ve lost eight straight road contests, covering just once. In their past six road trips, the Bills have been outscored 241-98. In addition, this is only the second time in three years that the Bills are road chalk. Most bettors remember last week. To us, a beat down on K.C. is barely notable but getting whacked by a Jets offense in Week One is. The Bills, with their pedestrian and predictable offense and suspect defense do not warrant this billing.
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The Browns might be 0-2 but they’ve shown promise in both defeats. Cleveland’s defense has yet to allow a ground touchdown this season after facing two very capable offenses in Philly and Cinci. RB Trent Richardson, if he’s not already, is a stud in waiting and Buffalo’s defense couldn’t stop a nose bleed. The Brownies play hard. They’re certainly on the verge of a win and there’s little reason to think that they can’t get it here. Keep the points, we're going for the straight up win and some ching ching in our pockets.
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DENVER +111 over Houston
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After a home opener thrashing of the Dolphins and then laying a beating on the punchless Jaguars, the Texans must now step into the deep end. In many cases that can be as startling as playing in the high altitude of the Rocky Mountains.
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The Broncos, and particularly QB Peyton Manning, were humiliated in a nationally televised Monday nighter against the Falcons. That showing likely reduced the price for this one, allowing us to take a comfortable position on the undervalued host. Peyton Manning has been a Texans killer for years. He has a talented cast surrounding him here in Denver. Unlike most pro athletes that spend their days on Twitter and playing video games, Peyton Manning will spend 12 hours a day in the film room going over Monday’s miscues, which were an anomaly that get corrected on this day.
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JACKSONVILLE +3 +101 over Indianapolis
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It’s one thing to be a home underdog to the second-rate Vikings, especially when it’s your first chance to showcase your franchise quarterback of the future. It’s a whole other matter for Andrew Luck and the Colts to be favored against this division rival. The Colts were run over by the Vikings offensive line last week and only miscues prevented the Vikes from victory. Let’s also not ignore that Indy could not hold a late 20-6 lead. The victory looks nice on paper but it was anything but.
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At this point in time, the Colts have more promise but the Jaguars have to be considered the better team. This one figures to stay tight as both teams will try to establish a superior run game. Should that happen, we like our chances with MJD over the limited skills of Donald Brown. Colts aren’t ready to be lined up in this price range just yet and last week’s misleading win has them overvalued here. Jags outright but with money and points being offered, we’ll gladly accept.

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CHICAGO -7½ +100 over St. Louis
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Rams went into Detroit in opening week and came very close to pulling off the upset. Rams were more inspired than demoralized from that one and responded with an exciting, come-from behind against Washington where Sam Bradford put up his best single game numbers of his career. Yes, the Rams appear to be better but instead of buying low, we’ll “selling high”.
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Jeff Fisher’s group will now play on a grass surface against an angry Bears group that was embarrassed by the Packers and has had extra prep time to right their wrongs. The Rams have served up multiple point-scoring opportunities (nine straight games overall in which they’ve allowed two TD’s or more) to their opponents. With the Bears, particularly Jay Cutler and the offensive line, in a foul mood, expect plenty more opportunities to be cashed in here. No bets.
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DALLAS -8½ -102 over Tampa Bay
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Bucs should have mixed feelings over their 1-1 start after winning opener and jumping out to big lead vs. Giants, only to see the G-Men storm back by allowing Eli Manning to throw for 500+ yards. Things appear better than they were a year ago in Tampa but this defence remains a liability and if the thinking can be that if Manning and Co. can rip this team, Tony Romo and the Cowboys have the ability to do the same.
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When focused, Tony Romo is among the elite QB’s in the game. Dallas plays its home opener here so expect Romo and 'Boys to rebound here in highly energized venue. One could argue that Cowboys are up to their old tricks after defeating Super Bowl champs only to lose handily in Seattle. However, quality clubs losing in Seattle is nothing new so we’re not going to put too much weight in that. Dallas figures to pay attention and that should spell trouble for this inferior guest. No bets.
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MINNESOTA +7 -110 over San Francisco
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The Niners appear to be special. The Vikings, not so much. Minnesota’s first two games against the Jaguars and Colts may have represented the easiest opening for any team, which they split.
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That said, football is an emotional game and while San Fran is clearly the superior team, situations such as this commonly result in letdowns. After winning in Green Bay and then at home in prime time, this one qualifies. A full touchdown spot becomes a tall order. 'Squares' are all over this one. That doesn't help San Fran's cause at all. No bets.
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TENNESSEE +4 -110 over Detroit
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The Titans can’t score, they can barely defend and they are void of playmakers. They’re also 0-2 and are still trying to lose by fewer than 21 points. That being the case, we can only attribute this curious number to Detroit’s decimated secondary that was already without two starters and has now lost cornerback Drayton Florence for a spell.
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We can’t sway from our buy low philosophy here so we’re taking the home underdog Titans and regretting it already. This is a game to avoid, as Lions could be “trap” play of the week. No bets.
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WASHINGTON -3 -105 over Cincinnati
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The Redskins found a handful of ways to lose to the Rams last week but at the end of the day, Washington has scored the most points in the NFL. That doesn’t bode well here for the visitor.
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After jumping out to a quick 14-0 lead over Cleveland last week, the Bengals allowed the Browns back in it and battled the entire way to preserve a win instead of putting away a vulnerable guest. In the process, Bengals defense allowed Brownies rookie QB Brandon Weeden to go from worst career week one start to a very decent showing. Cinci’s defense also got pounded in opener when they made Joe Flacco look like Joe Montana. This Bengals' defense is a serious concern but is not being treated as such in this number. Have to like Washington against this defense at FedEx Field, where a frenzied crowd awaits to give a hero’s welcome to Robert Griffin III in his home debut. No bets.
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MIAMI +2½ -105 over N.Y. Jets
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The Jets are coming off a horrible year. The euphoria from slapping the Bills in Week One was short-lived. Everything that was wrong this summer and last year came rushing back in lousy Week 2 performance in Pittsburgh. Is this the résumé of a team that should be favored on the road? We don’t think so.
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The Dolphins got waxed in Houston which was not surprising since Ryan Tannehill was starting his first NFL game against a very tough defense on the road. Last week, Tannehill looked better against the visiting Raiders with far fewer mistakes. He not only passed for 200 yards and his first NFL touchdown, he also ran in a score. Jets have allowed five passing TD’s already. We certainly prefer Fish to a Jets team that has too many issues to be favored in a division road game. Miami should be familiar with former coach Tony Sparano’s style, if you want to call it that. No bets.
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ARIZONA -3½ -107 over Philadelphia
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Arizona continues to receive less respect than a replacement ref. The Cardinals continue to win, returning home after huge upset in New England. Arizona’s unheralded defense is a deep unit that held the Seahawks and Patriots to a mere 34 points combined.
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In two games, Philly has made Brandon Weeden look foolish and Joe Flacco ordinary. Kevin Kolb falls somewhere between those two on the talent scale but Kolb will definitely have extra motivation here after deal that sent him from Eagles to Cardinals. Philadelphia’s two single-point wins have been sloppy and with Giants on deck in Sunday night prime timer, they could get caught playing another untidy game here. No bets
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Kansas City +9 -110 over NEW ORLEANS
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Saints figure to come out with their hair on fire. In the past, that would scare us. Presently, we’re not certain if this team has the ability to blow out too many opponents. Losing to the Panthers last week is even more concerning now after Carolina lost to TB in the opener and got whacked Thursday by the Giants.
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After two weeks, the Chiefs are truly a disaster. However, they have some quality players and in this league, teams rarely get blown out three weeks in a row. Our “buy low” philosophy really comes into play here as the Saints are also 0-2 but this line is not reflective of that, especially considering the pair of clubs they lost to (Washington and Carolina). Until we see some sort of sign that the Saints are heading back to form, this big spot must be avoided. No bets.
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SAN DIEGO -113 over Atlanta
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Both franchises off to good starts and one will get to 3-0. Atlanta is a quality team but finds itself having to travel to the left coast after a Monday night win. Historically, the Monday night winner that travels on a short week has been a bankroll killer. The Falcons are less effective outside of Georgia Dome and their inability last Monday to put away Denver early when given the opportunity is also a concern.
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San Diego hasn't faced much this year having defeated Oakland and Tennessee but they can't be condemned for winning. Opportunity to fade the Bolts is on the horizon but this isn’t the spot for that, as they have a little mojo going right now and catch the Falcons in an unfavorable situation. No bets.

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Houston Texans at Denver BroncosFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Denver BroncosFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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At first glance in our history book, plenty of bad Broncos stats start to surface against the Broncos in this battle (i.e. - 0-5 ATS after Monday nights, 0-4 SU and ATS last four game before the Raiders), while good Houston numbers get bandied about (i.e. - 7-0 ATS after the Jaguars). That's all fine and well but Instead, we'll sink our teeth into some pretty Peyton numbers, such as: Manning is 11-2 ATS as a dog of less than 6 points versus a non-division foe off a SU and ATS win; 12-3 SU and ATS the last 15 home versus a foe off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. The Houston defense has really ratcheted up in 2012 (tops in the league, allowing 196 YPG) but it's been against offenses the likes of Jacksonville and Miami. We like the Hall of Famer's 16-2 SU all-time mark against the Texans and his bounce-back ability today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Denver.

King Creole

Steelers / Raiders Under 45.5

This one is courtesy of 'Man's Best Friend' (SPEEDEE)... who is already 2-0 this season with his 'UNDER of the Week' plays! Last Sunday, Speedee was in San Francisco, where he squeezed in his UNDER 46.5 pts in the Niners / Lions game.

He'll be making a return trip to the Bay Area as the Raiders host the Steelers in what should be a low-scoring game. This series has gone 0-4-1 O/U in the last 5 meetings here, with an avg of only 27.8 total ppg.

Oakland comes in off a horrific 35-13 loss to the Dolphins. 0-8 O/U s'97: All GAME 3 dogs of 7 pts (Oak) vs any opp off a SU win (Pit).

In that game, the Raiders rushed for ONLY 23 total yards. 0-5-1 O/U L2Y: All conference teams playing off a DD SU road loss in which they rushed for 25 or less yrds (Oak).

Pittsburgh enters Game Three off a big Week Two WIN (vs the Jets) and a Week One loss vs the Broncos). 1-9-1 O/U s'84: All GAME 6 or less road favs of -3 > pts (Pitt) Playing off a DD SU win and a DD SU Loss in their last two games.

The Steelers (along with Indy) will be one of the FIRST two teams to have their Bye (next week). 0-5 O/U S'07: All GAME 3 non-division road teams (Pitt) who have their BYE the next week.

A look at last week's games will seal the deal. Last year, NFL teams went a perfect 0-6 O/U after beating the JETS at home (Pitt). And NFL home teams playing off a SU road loss to MIAMI (Oak) have gone 1-8-1 O/U since 2008

Final score: Pittsburgh 23 / Oakland 17

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Philadelphia vs. Arizona
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Pick: Philadelphia
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A big part of my NFL betting strategy involves projecting overall win/loss records at the start of the season and comparing/contrasting to actual records week in and week out.
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As week 3 hits there is an opportunity with the Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0) to showcase this strategy.
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At the start of the season, projecting the Eagles to start 3-0 seems possible with 1 home game vs. the Ravens and two road games vs. the Browns and Cardinals. To project the Cardinals to go 3-0 to start the season with 2 home games vs. Seattle and Philadelphia and a road game at Foxborough seems outrageous. For that reason and the analysis below, my play is on the Eagles.
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The Eagles are the first team ever in the history of the NFL to start the season 2-0 while turning the ball over 9 times. Vick led the futility charge with 7 TOs himself (6 INTs). He knows he has to be better Sunday at securing the ball and odds are he will. The Eagles offense is as explosive as any in the league, we all know that, it doesn't need to be reiterated. Starting centre Jason Kelce has been lost for the season and the Cardinals have an excellent pass rush however there are few QBs as elusive as Michael Vick.
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On defense, the Eagles strength is in the secondary with arguably the best 1-2 punch in the league with Asomugha and Rodgers Cromartie. Considering the Cardinals rely heavily on the passing game with little of a running attack, this scenario bodes well for the Eagles. Look for the former Cardinal Rodgers Cromartie to be a factor in this game!
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Kevin Kolb has seized the starting QB role for the Cardinals with Skelton going down to injury. The former Eagles pivot will look to remain productive in this game, something he's struggled with since joining the Cards. In two games this season Kolb has a QB rating of 95.7, 18 points higher than his career average of 77.7.
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The Cardinals offense is the lowest ranked in the league after two games with a 250 ypg average. The heart and soul is WR Larry Fitzgerald with a mere 67 yards receiving out of the gate. He will be in tough to break out Sunday.
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Starting RB Beanie Wells is expected to carry the load in this game despite rushing for only 58 yards this season nursing a sore knee. Back up RB, 2011 second round pick Ryan Williams has only 22 yards rushing on the season as he is nursing a sore knee as well.
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The defense has developed into one of the best in the league with LB Daryl Washington leading the NFL with 21 solo tackles and DE Calais Campbell earning defensive player of the week honors in week 2.
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As I break this game down a couple items stand out. The Eagles have two narrow victories despite losing the turnover battle in both games, giving up the ball 9 times. The Cardinals won last week thanks to a last second FG miss by the Pats. In the opener, the Seahawks had 7 straight unsuccessful attempts from inside the 5 to win the game thanks to a pass interference penalty.
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In the two games the Eagles offense has accumulated an average of 471 ypg while the defense has allowed an average of 268 ypg for a +203 differential.
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The Cardinals offense has accumulated an average of 250 ypg while the defense has allowed an average of 320 ypg for a -70 differential and the team is 2-0.
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Take the Eagles to win this weekend ATS!

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Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland BrownsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Cleveland Browns +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I can't buy into Buffalo being a road favorite and neither should you. The Bills have lost 15 of their last 17 road games, surrendering an average of 32 points during these last 17 away contests. Even with their victory against the Chiefs last week, the Bills are only 2-13 (counting preseason) in their last 15 overall games. They are 0-8 the last eight times they've been a visitor, 1-6-1 ATS.
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The Browns get zero respect. Ye they've been one of the best pointspread teams going 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games.
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Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson both looked much better last week combining for four touchdowns against Cincinnati. Weeden finished with a 114.9 quarterback rating, just the opposite of Week 1. He completed passes to nine different receivers. Richardson's ability to pound the defense really helped slow things down for Weeden and took the pressure off him. The Browns averaged 7.1 yards per play against the Bengals, which was third-best in the NFL during Week 2.
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Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown 20 interceptions in the last 12 games. He's thrown multiple interceptions in seven of his last 11 games. Browns defensive coordinator Dick Jauron knows the Bills having been their head coach from 2006 to the middle of 2009. There are still 17 Buffalo players left on the roster from Jauron's time there.
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The Bills are without their No. 1 running back, Fred Jackson. C.J. Spiller had a long-awaited breakthrough game last week against Kansas City. Spiller, though, isn't much of an inside runner and the Browns will be geared to stop him.
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It's not easy backing the Browns. It never easy. But they shouldn't be a home 'dog to Buffalo.

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Indianapolis Colts -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Indianapolis Colts should be more heavily favored over the Jacksonville Jaguars at home Sunday in this AFC South showdown. Jacksonville is off to an 0-2 start this season, and it won't be getting its first win of the year inside Lucas Oil Stadium.
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After marching down the field over the final 31 seconds to set up Adam Vinatieri's game-winning 53-yard field goal in a 23-20 victory over Minnesota, Andrew Luck comes into this game with a lot of confidence. I look for the Colts to carry that momentum into this contest.
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Jacksonville could not have looked any worse in its 7-27 home loss to Houston last week. It was outgained 117-411 for the game, allowing the Texans to rush for 216 yards. Blaine Gabbert is not the answer for the Jaguars after completing 7 of 19 passes against the Texans. He is expected to play Sunday, but he's banged up with a gluteus injury.
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The Jaguars are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Bet the Colts Sunday.