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Atlanta Falcons vs. San Diego ChargersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: San Diego Chargers -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These two are both 2-0 entering this contest and that is sort of rare for San Diego who has managed to stay under the radar this season. There are some trends that butt heads like Atlanta being 0-7 both straight-up and ATS as a dog after two straight win and San Diego's Norv Turner at 6-16 ATS against unbeaten foes at this point of the season. But the 'bookie buster' stat is that the Chargers are 11-1 straight-up and 10-2 ATS on this field off back-to back wins.
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota VikingsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: San Francisco 49ers -6½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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If you love him or you hate him it really doesn't matter. He doesn't care that's for sure. Harbaugh is getting the job done in San Fran. The 49ers have looked like the most complete team in the NFL for the first 2 weeks. They held the high-scoring Packers and Lions to a combined average of 310 yards to start the season.
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Through 2 games the 49ers are hammering people on the ground, and are 3rd in the league. Playing with the lead in both games suits their game plans just fine with Alex Smith able to take what the defense gives and not force the issue. Plus the defense has picked up right where it left off last season.
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The 49ers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. NFC teams, are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September, and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games, and 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
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This is the first meeting since 2009, when Greg Lewis’ amazing catch in the back of the end zone helped Brett Favre and the Vikings win 27-24. Brett's not playing Sunday and Greg Lewis isn't...ahhh I digress. 49ers will win by 14+.
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota VikingsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I'll take the points with the Vikings here on Sunday. The 49ers have looked tough in their first two games, but Minnesota should also be 2-0. Granted they played a couple of cupcake teams in the Jags and Colts while the 49ers have taken down the Packers & Lions, but laying seven points on the road against a team playing as well as Minnesota is too much for San Fran.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas CowboysFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Tampa Bay BuccaneersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas fits a negative week 3 system that pertains to teams that are exactly .500 in their home opener if they won 12 or less last season. Tampa Bay fits a solid system that plays on non division dogs from 7-10 if both teams are off non division losses. Tampa has covered 8 straight as a dog after scoring 28 or more and 6 of their last 8 on turf. Dallas is 4-16 ats as a favorite of late and a terrible 0-9 ats at home vs teams that are .500 or better. Look for Tampa to hang in here and get the cover. Take Tampa Bay today.
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Atlanta vs. San Diego
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It’s a tough spot for the road underdog as they travel West on a short week after hanging on to beat the Broncos on Monday Night Football. However, the spot is certainly factored into this pointspread. My power ratings show the Falcons as the significantly better of these two teams right now, which should equate to a pointspread near pick ‘em at Qualcomm Stadium – there’s line value with the road dog, if they can overcome the tough circumstances.
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The Chargers haven’t opened a season with a 3-0 SU mark since Marty Schottenheimer’s first year as their head coach, back in 2002. Under Norv Turner, this team has consistently underachieved coming out of the gate. Only once in his previous five years on the job have the Chargers gone better than 2-3 SU in their first five games.
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Of course, the Chargers 2-0 start this year is largely schedule related. They’ve beaten the Raiders and Titans, two teams that rank in the bottom quartile of the league, regardless of what set of power ratings you trust. In those two wins, San Diego has struggled to run the football and despite Philip Rivers impressive looking numbers, he’s been every bit as lucky as he’s been good, consistently throwing the ball up for grabs.
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Atlanta hasn’t run the football well either, and leading rusher Michael Turner could face a pre-game suspension for his DUI arrest following their win over Denver on Monday. But this Falcons passing game is clicking on all cylinders in Dirk Koetter’s new offense. QB Matt Ryan leads the NFL with a 117.6 QB rating, creating explosive plays with his trio of WR weapons Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. We’ll find out very quickly if the Chargers solid defensive numbers through their first two games are real or fraudulent thanks to weak opposition. Frankly, I expect the latter…. Take Atlanta
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San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Minnesota VikingsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco is loaded with talent, but the opening stretch has been tough: an emotional road game at Green Bay, followed by a marquee TV matchup last week against the Lions, both wins. With a game at the NY Jets on the East Coast on deck, this is a look ahead spot for everyone except Randy Moss, who faces his old team. The Vikings are playing better than expected, with a balanced offense that is 13th in yards rushing and passing, plus a defense that is 10th in pass yards allowed and 13th in rush defense. And when these teams meet the home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Play the Vikings!
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New England/ Baltimore Over 49.5: (Added) This should be a fun exciting Sunday night football game. The Pats offense was stymied last week vs the Arizona Cardinals, but that rarely happens two weeks in a row. a lot of questions are going around about what's wrong the the pats offense. Well... NOTHING. Just because they had one bad game. This is a team with plenty of offensive weapons and they will get it figured out this week vs a Baltimore team that showed last week vs Philly, allowing the eagles 486 yards, including 357 through the air. Well heck, Brady can do that. LOL. The Baltimore offense last week got away from what they did in their opener and that was run the no-huddle a lot. It cost them as they were able to generate just 325 yards of offense and really didn't look good at all. I expect them to go back that and try and torch this Pats defense that was not very good last year. Both offenses should get cranking in front of the national audience as this game hits the 50's with ease.
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Houston -1.5 over DENVER: The Broncos have a lot of hype, because Manning is now under center for them, but I still do not feel this is a good team. In week 1 Denver played on a ton of emotion in their nationally televised win over Pittsburgh. After all they were at home and it was Manning’s first home start. A lot of talk was made last week about how Manning would struggle in a hostile environment, with all the Crowd noise and such. Well I can tell you that the crowd noise really had nothing to do with him not seeing the three defenders that led to his 3 INT’s in the first quarter. Peyton is still learning this offense and his players and it will take some time for them to fully gel. Playing against one of the best defenses in the league will not help. Last year the Texans ranked 2nd in the league and this year they are 1st, allowing just 196 ypg so far. Granted that they have played just Miami and Jacksonville so far, but let’s remember that this team was built on defense last year, specifically for stopping Manning. Let’s also note that the last time that Peyton faced a Wade Philips defense was back in 2010 and the Cowboys held him to a season low QB rating of 75.4, with Peyton tossing 4 of his 14 INT’s that year in that game. Houston’s offense is not very imaginative, but they are consistently good, don’t make many mistakes or take many chances knowing they have a very stout defense behind them. I expect Manning to have a couple more mistakes vs this Wade Philips defense, while the Houston offense comes up with enough big plays to win this one by at least a TD. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any non-division team in week 3 that has allowed 10 or less points in their 1st 2 games. This play is 19-3 since 1978.
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San Francisco/ Minnesota Under 43: I really don't see a lot of points in this one. Last year the Niners had the best defense in the league and this year they come in allowing just 310 ypg, ranking 11th in the league. That ranking though is due mainly to the fact that they have taken on Detroit and Green Bay in their first two weeks of the year. Still allowing just 310 ypg vs those two offenses is pretty damn good. Today they will face an offense that is nothing like those two teams. Minnesota with Adrian Petersen is a run first offense and that just won't do here vs a San Francisco team that has allowed just 63.5 ypg on the ground so far. That should put the Vikes into many long down situations and Ponder is not talented enough to overcome those situations. Should be a lot of running and Punts by Minnesota. On the other side we have a San Fran team that has opened up their offense in the early going, but I feel they ad to as they were facing two potent offenses, but today they don't and that should have them using their 3rd ranked running game (163 ypg) even more than they have so far. That should eat plenty of clock. The Minnesota defense stops the ball well, but they can be passed on, however as I stated I don't see the Niners passing as much as in the first two weeks. They will look to use their run game and then rely on their defense vs a 1 dimensional Minnesota offense. Two Running teams and good defense should keep this one well Under the total.
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NEW ORLEANS -8 over Kansas City: Its time for this Saints team to put up a good game, especially for the home crowd. We knew they would not be that good this year, but no one saw 0-2 coming. The Saints still possess one of the top offenses in the league and Kansas City has been very poor on defense this year, allowing 75 points so far. The Chiefs have allowed 235 yards per game through the air at 9.4 yards per attempt, which is very poor and will not hold up against this Saints passing attack. The Saints have allowed 278 ypg and 12.1 yards per attempt, but that shouldn't hurt them that much as the Chiefs are more of a running team. The Saints need this game bad. They are the much better team and will finally put it all together and the 2+ TD win here.
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New York Jets -2.5 over MIAMI: The Jets came back to to earth after their opening week blowout of the Bills, but I see them getting back on track for this one. New York had all sorts of problems offensively in the preseason and then exploded vs Buffalo, before being held to just 10 points last week vs Pittsburgh. I expect the playbook to open back up this week and put some points on the board again. The best athlete on the field may be Tebow and I expect coach Ryan to get him more involved, which should cause many problems for this Miami defense that isn't really that talented. The Maim offense goes through RB Reggie Bush, but that's all they have and the Jets can stop the run pretty well and if Miami want to throw then they will be going up against one of the better defensive backfields in the league I just don't see this Miami offense coming up with enough big plays to win this one.
NFL Predictions
Washington Redskins -3
The Bengals head to Washington with a 1-1 record. In Week 1 the Bengals were beat 44-13 in the first Monday Night game of the season against the Ravens. The Bengals entered as 7 point underdogs, but were blown out as they couldn't do anything on defense. Cincinnati's defensive struggles continued on Sunday, although they escaped with a 34-27 win over the Browns in their home opener. Browns rookie quarterback, who looked bad in Week 1, completed 26 of 37 pass attempts for 322 yards and 2 TDs against the Bengals. Trent Richardson who also didn't do much at all in Week 1 gained 109 yards on 19 carries and added a touchdown. The Bengals rank 30th on defense allowing 434 yards against per game, and they've giving up an average of 35.5 points against over their two games. Their passing defense is ranked 29th on the season while their rushing defense is 18th allowing 126 yards against per game. The good news for the Bengals defense is that they are expecting DE Carlos Dunlap and CB Jason Allen back in the line up. Offensively the Bengals have been average at best, ranking 18th in the NFL with 348 yards per game and 16th with 23.5 points per game. QB Andy Dalton had a rough game in Week 1 throwing for just 221 yards and 1 INT, but he did bounce back well against a bad Cleveland defense at home. Note that Dalton has been sacked 10 times through 2 games.
The Redskins will look to start the season 2-1 with a win in their home opener on Sunday. The Redskins stunned the league with a 40-32 victory in Week 1 over the Saints in New Orleans, with QB Robert Griffin III throwing for 320 yards and 2 Touchdowns (adding 42 yards on the ground) in his rookie debut. The Redskins then went into St Louis as 3 point favorites, and lead 21-16 at half before going on to lose 31-29. Washington had a chance to tie it up late and force overtime, but a dumb play by WR Joshua Morgan that cost them 15 yards put them out of field goal range. Again the defense was shaky letting Sam Bradford throw for 310 yards and 3 TDs, while giving up 141 yards on the ground. The defense ranks 28th allowing 405 yards against per game, and 27th allowing 31.5 points against per game. With that said, the Washington offense is 4th in the NFL averaging 416 yards per game through Week 2 and they are 1st in the league averaging 34 points per game. The Redskins lost two starters on defense in LB Brian Orakpo and DE Adam Carriker, and will need to rely on their offense to continue to play well. RG3 is 4th in the league with a 111.6 QB rating, compared to Bengals QB Andy Dalton who is 14th with a 93.9 QB Rating. One positive about the Redskins defense is they have done a good job forcing turnovers early in the season, with 6 forced turnovers in just two games.
Take a look at the Bengals since the start of the 2011 season and you will notice that they have yet to beat a 2011 playoff team, including their first two weeks of this season. The Redskins weren't a playoff team last year, but in my opinion the Bengals are slightly overrated. The Bengals were 5-4 on the road last season, but those wins last year came against the following teams: St Louis, Tennessee, Seattle, Jacksonville, and Cleveland. Nothing too impressive there and we add in the other teams Cincinnati beat at home (Arizona, Cleveland Indianapolis, and Buffalo) and you can see that most of their wins came against weaker 2011 teams. The Bengals are just 1-7-3 against the spread in their last 11 games overall and 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 road games. I'm not really looking back at the Redskins play last season as this is a new look team, but take note that the Redskins were 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss. Both teams have given up a lot defensively, but Sunday we should see the Redskins high powered offense take over the game. Washington isn't an easy place to play when the crowd is into it, and they no doubt will be with RG3 making his home debut. The Redskins win and cover.
Detroit Lions -3
The Detroit Lions probably have not opened up the 2012 season like they had hoped to. Detroit needed a last second touchdown to win at home in Week 1 versus the Rams, and then went into San Francisco on Sunday Night to lose to a very tough 49ers team 27-19. With that said, I wouldn't panic if I were a Lions fan as they pretty much dominated most of their Week 1 meeting with the Rams (a few mistakes by Stafford kept St Louis in it) and they showed up and competed Sunday against a team that many have picked to win Super Bowl. The Lions are ranked 14th on offense with 362 yards per game, and are 17th with 23 points per game. Defensively the Lions have been solid, ranking 10th allowing 299 yards against per game. Detroit is 18th giving up 25 points against per game, but a lot of that was on the offense in Week 1 with Stafford throwing 3 INTs. QB Matthew Stafford is ranked 27th in the league with a 73.2 QB Rating as he has throw 4 INTs and just 2 TDs through the first two weeks, but I expect him to have a great week here in Week 3 against the Titans defense that ranks 20th against the pass. Stafford has been sacked just 3 times so far this year, as the offensive line has done a good job protecting him. The Lions rely on their passing game, with their rushing offense ranking just 25th in the league, but I expect them to find some holes in the Titans defense that ranks 30th against the rush so far early in the season.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a tough schedule to start the year and are 0-2 after losses to New England and San Diego. The Titans were just 4.5 point underdogs hosting New England in Week 1 but lost that game 34-13 as Brady threw for 236 yards and 2 TDs and RB Stevan Ridley had no troubles rushing for 125 yards on 21 carries adding a TD. In Week 2 the Chargers hosted the Titans as 6.5 point favorites and went on to win 38-10 with Phillip Rivers throwing for 284 yards with 3 TDS and an INT. Without Ryan Matthews the Chargers don't have much of a run game right now, but they did manage to add 148 yards on the ground. Rookie QB Jake Locker has looked like a rookie through two weeks throwing for 403 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs for a 77.6 QB Rating.. Overall the Titans offense is 31st in the NFL averaging 248 yards per game, but Locker can't be blamed for that. Tennessee has rushed for just 29 yards per game, ranking them last (32nd) in the league. Like mentioned earlier, the Titans defense hasn't done much good to date, ranking 25th overall allowing 403 yards against per game.
The Lions excelled last season versus below average teams, and I can see them doing so again on Sunday. The Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record. Note that the Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Titans have shown no signs on improving from an average season last year, with no running game (even with one of the best rushers in the league) and a very shaky start defensively. Detroit is a tough team to beat and their improvements on defense will help them go on the road this season and take care of teams like the Titans. I like the Lions laying just 3 points against the Titans here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a disasterous collapse in the second half of their Week 2 game against the Giants to fall to 1-1 on the season. After returning an Eli Manning INT for a touchdown to end the half the Bucs lead 24-13 heading into the locker room. Tampa Bay even lead 27-16 heading into the 4th quarter, before allowing the Giants to score 25 points in the final quarter to win 41-34. The collapse was good for us backing the Buccaneers this week though, as they've played 7 quality quarters of football to start the season. The Bucs hosted the Panthers in Week 1 as 2.5 point underdogs and went on to win 16-10. QB Josh Freeman has been fairly effective through the first two weeks completing just under 60% of his passes for 381 yards with 3 TDs and 2 INTs for a 85.5 QB Rating. Overall the offense is ranked just 29th with 282 yards per game, but as a team they've managed 25 points per game so far. Defensively the Bucs rank near the bottom of the league overall, but most of that was from a 4th quarter meltdown last week. The Buccaneers rushing defense is ranked 3rd overall allowing just 52 yards against per game. Another positive about the Bucs defense is that they've forced 5 INTs over 2 games. For what it's worth, Tampa Bay was averaging under 4 points against per quarter heading into the final quarter last week.
Dallas opened the season with a big confidence boosting 24-17 win over the defending Super Bowl champions, but then went into Seattle as 3.5 point favorites and lost 27-7 doing very little offensively. QB Tony Romo completed 23 of 40 pass attempts for 251 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT, while the rushing game was pretty much non existent with Murray rushing for just 44 yards on 12 attempts. The Cowboys couldn't stop the run last week allowing Marshawn Lynch to rush for 122 yards, which lead to Russell Wilson being effective completing 15 of 20 attempts for 151 yards and 1 touchdown. Ultimately it was some special team mistakes that cost the Cowboys. Dallas has been good on defense ranking 9th allowing 292 yards against per game, but their offense dropped to (a still respectable) 10th in the league with 364 yards per game. Romo is 8th in the league with a 97.4 QB Rating, and has looked good to start the season. His numbers could be better if it weren't for a handful of dropped passes last week.
Take note that the Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs NFC opponents To me this 8.5 line looks like a bit of an over reaction to last week's meltdown by Tampa Bay, and I think they are a better team than most people think. Defensively Tampa Bay has been very solid for the most part of their two games to open the season, and I think the offense should be able to keep up with Dallas as the Cowboys will be dealing with a number of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. The Cowboys won just 4 of their 16 games last year by 7+ points, and I think this 8.5 point spread is too much - I'll take the points with the Bucs.
Buffalo Bills -2.5
Buffalo rebounded from a 48-28 Week 1 loss in New York against the Jets by beating Kansas City last week 35-17 as 3 point favorites. With RB Fred Jackson out with an injury C.J. Spiller continued his tear, rushing for 123 yards on 15 attempts and adding two touchdowns. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was efficient when called upon, as he threw for 178 yards completing 10 of 19 attempts with 2 touchdowns. The Bills held Matt Cassel and the Chiefs to just 3 points through the first 3 quarters before giving up a pair of late touchdowns as they led 35-3. The Bills are 7th in the league with 384 yards per game offensively and are 4th with 31.5 points per game. Buffalo is 1st in the league in rushing with an average of 198 yards per game, mostly thanks to C.J. Spiller who has been stellar leading the league by 51 yards (with 292). The Browns rank 28th against the run and will have a lot of troubles containing Spiller. With 1 rough game defensively the Bills are ranked 25th in the league on defense, but I expect them to move up on that list after Week 3.
Like many had expected the Cleveland Browns have started the season 0-2. In Week 1 they almost pulled off a big upset losing 17-16 to the Eagles as 9 point underdogs. The Eagles put up over 400 yards of offense on the day but 4 Michael Vick INTs and 1 fumble almost led to a Browns upset win. In Week 2 Cleveland went into Cincinnati as 7 point underdogs and although the offense kept pace, the Browns defense couldn't slow down the Bengals who scored 34 points in a 34-27 victory. Cleveland ranks 29th overall in defense allowing 415 yards against per game. After a good game last week the offense moved up to 22nd in the league with 324 yards per game, but that was against a Bengals defense who hasn't looked good through two weeks. QB Brandon Weeden ranks 32nd in the league for QBs with a 57.6 QB Rating as he has completed 52.8% of his passes for 440 yards with 2 TDs and 4 INTs. Weeden looked good last week, but I expect him to have similar struggles to Week 1 against a good Bills defense.
Although the Bills are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 and 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games I think there is a bit of a mismatch here and the Bills should be able to win by 3+ points against one of the leagues worst teams in my opinion. Note that the Browns are just 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 home games. Buffalo has been lethal on the ground and going against the Browns 28th ranked rush defense I don't see Cleveland being able to slow them down. Buffalo should be able to do enough on the ground to allow Fitzpatrick to be efficient again this week, while Weeden will have his problems. Take Buffalo -2.5.
Miami Dolphins +2.5
The New York Jets surprised everyone putting up 48 points in their home opener in Week 1 beating the Bills 48-28, but then went on to put up just 10 points against a Steelers defense that was missing two key defensive stars. QB Mark Sanchez has completed 53.7% of his passes for 404 yards with 4 TDs and just 1 INT, which is good for a 95.0 QB Rating. Last week though Sanchez struggled to find open receivers, and his second half struggles led to a 27-10 loss in Pittsburgh. Overall the Jets rank 26th offensively with 301 yards per game. The Jets are middle of the pack defensively at 15th averaging 230 yards against per game. RB Shonn Greene has been less than impressive averaging just 58.5 yards per game over their first two weeks, which isn't good news going up against a good Miami run defense.
The Miami Dolphins had a tough Week 1 game against an AFC powerhouse in the Houston Texans, as they fell 30-10 as 13 point underdogs, but overall I felt they played pretty well that game behind a rookie quarterback. The Dolphins then hosted the Oakland Raiders looking to avoid an 0-2 start. Miami was a 2 point underdog but went on to crush the Raiders 35-13 behind a solid game from Reggie Bush who rushed for 172 yards and 2 TDs and a good game from rookie QB Ryan Tannehill who threw for 200 yards with 1 touchdown. Reggie Bush now ranked 2nd in the league with 120 yards per game, while the Dolphins overall are 2nd in rushing with 171 yards per game. Overall the Dolphins are 12th in the league averaging 363 yards per game. Despite giving up 30 points in Week 1 the Dolphins rank 19th overall in Defense giving up 366 yards against per game.
I think this game will come down to who can run the ball more effectively. The Dolphins rank 4th in the NFL allowing just 53 yards against per game on the ground after facing two elite RBs in Arian Foster and Darren McFadden, and shouldn't have much problems stopping Shonn Greene here at home. Meanwhile the Dolphins rank 2nd in rushing and will face the leagues 22nd ranked rush defense. Reggie Bush should have another good game against the Jets which will give Ryan Tannehill some space, while Mark Sanchez should be forced into some mistakes by a good Miami defense. This Dolphins team isn't getting enough credit yet and I don't think they should be underdogs here at home vs the Jets. Take Miami to cover.
Oakland Raiders +3.5
After the Steelers defense couldn't stop Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense in a 31-19 loss in Week 1, they bounced back allowing just 10 points against in a 27-10 victory in their home opener. Pittsburgh was without James Harrison and Troy Polamalu last week, and they are both ruled out for Week 3. Although Ben Roethlisberger has been solid completing 64.8% of his passes with 4 TDs and just 1 INT, the Steelers offense overall is ranked just 25th with 307 yards per game. The Steelers troubles have come in the run game, where they rank 30th in the league averaging just 70.5 yards per game and an awful 2.6 yards per attempt. The Steelers are 7th in the league defensively allowing just 267 yards against per game, but they did struggle in their road game vs the Broncos.
Not many would have predicted the Raiders being blown out in Miami last week after a 8 point home loss in Week 1. In their season and home opener against the Chargers the Raiders were 1 point favorites. Offensive struggles and a few special team mistakes led to a 22-14 loss. Oakland then went into Miami as 2 point favorites and were blown out 35-13 as Reggie Bush led the way for the Dolphins. The Raiders are in need of a win in Week 3 to prevent an 0-3 start that would make things very tough for the Raiders for the remainder of the year. Oakland is 15th overall in defensive allowing an average of 355 yards against per game after a good Week 1 game at home. The Raiders rush defense is 29th overall, but shouldn't be much of a problem against the Steelers who have had virtually no running game. Their pass defense is 8th with a solid 207 yards against per game through the air. Offensively the Raiders rank 15th in the NFL averaging 358 yards per game, but failing to turn those yards into points has them 31st in the league with just 13.5 points per game.
Take note that the Steelers were 5-3 on the road last season, but those road wins came against Cleveland, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Arizona, and Indianapolis - with the victories over Cleveland, KC, and Indy all being 4 points or less. The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Although the Raiders are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing 30+ points in their previous game. This pick comes down to the Steelers offensive line struggling to produce a running game and struggling to protect Big Ben, and the defense missing some key components. Oakland is a tough place to play and with this game almost being a must win I think we see a good tough game from Oakland. Take the Raiders getting 3.5.
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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
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Despite yesterday's loss, the Phillies are on a 12-4 run in their last 16 and have put together a 26-13 mark in their last 39 games, overall. Cliff Lee looks to lock-up a weekend series win for his team on Sunday. The lefthander has been on fire of late. The Phils have won each of his last five starts and Lee has posted a 1.02 ERA & 0.96 WHIP in the process. Lee owns great career numbers against Atlanta and a strong 2.84 ERA & 1.03 WHIP in 10 daytime starts this season. He should have little trouble continuing those runs against an Atlanta team that plates just 2.6 rpg in road day games against southpaws in 2012. The Braves will send Tim Hudson to the mound on Sunday. Hudson has been shaky in three of his last four starts. In fact, even when you include the one decent start in the mix, the righty has still allowed 13 earned runs and a whopping 38 base runners (32 hits) in his last 23 2/3 innings of work. I'm backing the Phillies in their weekend rubber match with the Braves.
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New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: New England Patriots
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My free pick in the NFL for Sunday is a 10* graded play on the New England Patriots. The simulator shows a high probability that New England will win this game. There has been much press about the apparent changes in the Patriots offensive schemes. However, Belichick is known for having significant changes to his offensive and defensive schemes all based on the opponent being faced.
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I believe that the Patriots will play far more three wide receiver sets and look to spread the Ravens defense. The simulator shows a high probability that they will gain 7.5 to 8.0 passing yards per attempt in this game. In past games where the Patriots have achieved this level of offensive success they have posted a 17-5 ATS mark since 1992.
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The sim further shows a high probability that the Ravens will average 4.5 to 5.0 rushing yards per attempt. This projection, however, supports the Patriots in their sometimes ?bend and dont break defensive schemes. The Patriots are on a perfect 6-0 ATS when they have allowed this level of rushing in games played over the past three seasons.
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Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 80-43 for 65% winners since 1983. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are off a road loss with the game taking place in the first four weeks of the regular season.
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Despite the offensive sputter last week in the loss to Arizona, the Patriots defense is vastly improved from last year through two games ranking in the top-5 in many defensive categories in the NFL. Although a small sample size, it is quite apparent they are a far better unit and have added some new wrinkles to confuse the quarterback progressions.
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The Patriots are going to be tested by the Ravens ground game as they will attempt to run a balanced offensive scheme to keep pressure off of their quarterback Flacco. New England has allowed an average of 62 rushing yards per game. I expect the Ravens to gain over 100 rushing yards, but will be a minor factor in this game if the Patriots score first and/or get out to a double digit lead.
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The Patriots will immediately attack the Ravens suspect defense that has allowed an average of more than 400 yards. They have huge matchup advantages in the three wide receiver sets. Welker is part of that scheme and will have far more balls thrown to him because of the favorable man-coverage and cover-3 zone coverages. The Big-3 of Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and Rob Gronkowski will have big days helping Brady to a 350 or more passing yards. Take the Patriots for a 5* play.
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Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals
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The future will be on display on Sunday afternoon in Kansas City as Jake Odorizzi takes the mound for the Royals. Their 3rd ranked prospect according to scouts went 11-3 with a 2.93 ERA in Triple-A Omaha. The righty has allowed just 20 earned runs over his last ten starts in AAA. Lefties are hitting .229 against him which is good considering the lineup that Cleveland uses is heavy with left-handed bats. The Indians have lost two straight games and six of their last eight games overall as they play out the string on a terrible season. They are 19-34 in the daytime and 28-49 in road games.
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David Huff is making his second start of the season for Cleveland. He gave up 3 runs and seven hits in just over four innings of work his last time out. Huff is 2-2 with a 5.70 ERA in four career starts against Kansas City. He lost to the Royals on the road last September after allowing 5 runs and six hits in six innings. Kansas City is already using all of their young players and they are succeeding in doing so. They are hitting right around .280 at home and they’ve won five straight games. This is a clear game of two teams going in different directions so we'll back the home team on Sunday afternoon.
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Philadelphia Eagles
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The Eagles are 2-0 to start the season but realistically could be 0-2. Turnovers are again plaguing Philadelphia as it have given it up nine times which was the exact same problem a year ago and that eventually cost the Eagles a spot in the playoffs. They have gotten away with it so far which is something they did not do last year as they won their first game but then lost their next four games. Arizona has just three takeaways through two games so Philadelphia should be able to take care of the ball.
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Arizona is the biggest 2-0 surprise this year but like the Eagles, the Cardinals could easily be sitting at 0-2. They were able to stop Seattle in the redzone in their first game to clinch a win and then watched a Patriots field goal get pulled to preserve the win last week. Arizona's defense was definitely solid in both games but the offense is still a work in progress as the Cardinals are 27th in scoring offense and 30th in total offense and they have managed only 20 points in each of their first two games.
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The Eagles finished last season fourth in the NFL in total offense and eighth in the league in total defense so they dominated both sides of the ball. The issue as mentioned was turnovers as Philadelphia was -14 in turnover margin. This season, the Eagles are dominating once again as they are first in the league in total offense and fourth in total defense. This has led to outgaining their opponents by 203.5 ypg which is the biggest yardage margin in the league.
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Meanwhile Arizona has been outgained in both of its games including outyarded by 142 yards last week in New England. Despite that, it was able to come away with the win and that sets up a letdown situation here as it will be tough to take out two straight top-tiered opponents. The Eagles could use this one a lot more as they have games on deck against the Giants, Steelers and Lions so the upcoming schedule is not easy. Role players will have to step up as injuries have not helped matters.
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The spot is certainly not ideal for the Cardinals even though they are returning home. Arizona is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after 2 straight wins by six or less while going 4-15 ATS in its last 19 home games after two or more consecutive wins. The Eagles meanwhile are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record and under head coach Andy Reid, they are 18-9 ATS in their last 27 road games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
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Chicago Bears -7
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Back home and motivated by a disappointing performance at Green Bay last week, I expect the Bears to take care of business this afternoon. Because they played Thursday night in Week 2, they have had extra preparation time for this contest. That time provides them with an added edge here.
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The Rams can't be trusted on the road where they are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11. Looking back, they are on a 34-55 ATS slide as road underdogs and have lost these by an average score of 27.8 to 15.2. They won last week but are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a victory.
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There is a good bit of history in our favor too as playing against road underdogs or pickems that scored 30 points or more last game, provided they are matched up against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half of its last game, has produced a 39-14 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. This system is 9-2 ATS the last 3 seasons.
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The Bears have won their last 3 against St. Louis by 15, 24 and 8 points. Even with Matt Forte out, they have the superior talent on both sides of the football. And, they'll be very focused after the stinker they played last week. Lay the points.
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New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins
Pick: New York Jets
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Nice win by the Dolphins last week, but I'm sure not sold that team is any good at all. The Jets are nothing special either, but they're the superior squad here and the number is not much of an obstacle. I'll back the Jets.
Ross KingFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: New York Jets
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NY Jets as a road favorite of 3 or less 3-1 the last 3 seasons.NY Jets 14-5 versus Miami since 1992.Miami when the home total is between 35.5-42 are 18-35 since 1992.Take NY Jets to show up and help their offensive coach and former Miami head coach Tony Sparano get some revenge here today.