Harry Bondi
Jacksonville / Indianapolis Over 43
There is no doubt that Indy is going to be an "over" team this year, so let's grab the line value before the oddmakers catch up. We are extremely high on Andrew Luck and this is the kind of defense he will feast on this season. The Jags are weak at linebacker, which will set up the play-action pass that Luck is so good at, and they also have many holes in the secondary. Indy, meanwhile, has problems of its own on defense and we'll look for Maurice Jones Drew to have a big game on the quick turf. Both defenses are allowing an average of 28.5 points per game, so this number is simply too low. Go over.
OC Dooley
Cardinals +3
Most reading this analysis will remember when Kevin Kolb for a very brief time grabbed the starting quarterback job in Philadelphia before an injury ultimately forced him to give way to one Michael Vick. Of course the Eagles eventually traded Kolb to Arizona where the Cardinals inked him to a lucrative long term five-year contract. After being outplayed in the preseason, he lost for a second time since arriving in the desert the starting position to John Skelton. But in a twist of irony an ankle injury that forced Skelton to the sidelines in week-one gave Kolb as second chance of grabbing a regular NFL starting position behind center. Kolb was effective enough to help Arizona pull off a stunning outright upset at New England last week, but the big story is the Cardinals defense which so far has yielded only two touchdowns while harassing opposing quarterbacks with SEVEN SACKS. With the Philadelphia offensive line recently shuffled due to injury, today is another opportunity for that Arizona stop-unit to shine. The Eagles enter today with a 2-0 record even though committing 9 turnovers. They are actually the first team in the history of the NFL with a pair of “one point” outright triumphs despite turning the football over 9 times. Getting back to the host Cardinals who are also 2-0, one of the shocking statistics of last week’s mamouth upset at New England was that they thrived even though star wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald had only ONE reception. The following may come as a shock but dating back to last season Arizona is on a 9-2 SU roll, but seemingly the oddsmakers have yet to catch up with them
Johnny Detroit
Tennessee +4
The Titans historically do well at home vs. the NFC and the Lions historically suck on the road. Being a Lions season ticket holder, the crowd whether at the Silverdome or Ford Field is a MAJOR FACTOR. Tennessee had Britt return last week and we should see him worked into the offense more this week as despite being a dirtbag off the field, he is a stud WR. Chris Johnson has been a major disappointment this season for the Titans, bettors and fantasy owners. But the Lions gave up close to 150 yards last week on the ground to SF and 349 yards total to a average/above average NFL offense at best. The Lions defense is exactly what the Titans need to get the ball moving. Take the +4 in what should be a final drive type of game today.
Jimmy Moore
San Francisco @ Minnesota
Play: Minnesota
I know that San Francisco has looked strong in their first 2 games but that will make is very tough for them to get up for a third week in a row. They played at Lambeau against the Packers and they were on the Sunday night game last week. Now they get buried in the 1:00 starts as a west coast team against a young hungry team and they are laying a full TD. Have to take the points here and look for the Vikings to stay close all game long.
Stan Lisowski
Detroit vs Tennessee
Play: Tennessee
Titans have a strong history taking points as their 64%spread record the past 45 in that role would attest to. Lion secondary is a mess still with WR Britt coming back Tennessee QB Locker should finally see some successes throwing the ball. Detroit is in the second game of back to back travel, a situation that finds them 2-17 outright the past 11 years.
The Real Animal
Cleveland +2.5
Buffalo is 3-16 SU in their last 19 away. Since the start of 2010 the Bills are allowing 32 points per game on the highway. In their last eight road games the Bills are 0-8 SU, 1-6-1 ATS. Despite playing Kansas City, maybe the worst team based on two weeks of results, the Bills are #28 in passing, #25 in total defense, #24 versus the run, and #22 against the pass. Last year they were #26 in total defense, #28 versus the run and #19 versus the pass. I really like the way Trent Richardson looked against Cincinnati with 109 yards on 19 carries against a fairly good defense. Brandon Weeden in his road debut completed 26-of-37 for 322 yards, two touchdowns, and ZERO interceptions for a QB rating of 114.9. Let's put that Buffalo blowout over Kansas City in perspective. The Bills won turnovers 3-0. The Chiefs won total yards 422-379. Through two weeks Buffalo gave up 806 total yards of offense against the Jets, who were held without a touchdown in the preseason, and Kansas City. Yikes! When the Bills didn't win turnovers two weeks ago against the Flyboys they lost 48-28. If the Browns can put up 439 yards and 27 points at Cincinnati, I see no reason why they can't produce points and win outright over Buffalo.
Wunderdog
Texas at Seattle
Pick: Seattle
Today is the end of a six game road trip for mighty Texas. They have look road weary, losing two in a row as chalk of minus-122 and 172. The offense has scored just 3 runs in two games and face Jason Vargas (14-10, 3.92 ERA) of the Mariners. Vargos loves pitching at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of Safeco Field (2.62 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). The Mariners are 9-4 in Vargas' last 13 starts. He's had a strong season and remember he was the AL pitcher of the month in July after going 5-0 with a 1.64 ERA in six starts. Seattle goes for the sweep, despite being a dog in every game. The Mariners are 12-5 in their last 17 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Ryan Dempster goes for Texas and is off a terrible performance in Tuesday’s 11-3 loss to the Angels. Dempster gave up five earned runs off six hits in just 3 1/3 innings. He also has a 4.96 ERA in his last three starts lasting barely over five innings per start, so grab the home dog. Play the Mariners.