Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 25,2011

MLB

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis
The Cubs look to bounce back from yesterday's 2-1 loss and build on their 6-1 record in Randy Wells' last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Chicago is the pick (+170) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+170)

Game 951-952: Philadelphia at NY Mets (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 14.720; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.226
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-180); Over

Game 953-954: Atlanta at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 14.982; Washington (Detwiler) 15.662
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100); Under

Game 955-956: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Willis) 15.059; Pittsburgh (McDonald) 14.290
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+105); Under

Game 957-958: Colorado at Houston (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 13.395; Houston (Harrell) 14.237
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Houston (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-110); Over

Game 959-960: Florida at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 14.606; Milwaukee (Narveson) 15.596
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-135); Over

Game 961-962: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 15.795; St. Louis (Jackson) 15.176
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+170); Under

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 17.069; San Diego (Luebke) 15.986
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 5
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-135); Under

Game 965-966: San Francisco at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.232; Arizona (Collmenter) 16.232
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Over

Game 967-968: Baltimore at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Matusz) 16.115; Detroit (Penny) 16.873
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-170);

Game 969-970: Minnesota at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hendriks) 14.411; Cleveland (Carmona) 13.859
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+145); Under

Game 971-972: Toronto at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 15.468; Tampa Bay (Davis) 15.846
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-155); Under

Game 973-974: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Mendoza) 14.997; White Sox (Floyd) 14.314
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+110); Over

Game 975-976: Seattle at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Furbush) 15.751; Texas (Holland) 15.034
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-210); 10
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+180); Over

Game 977-978: Oakland at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Harden) 15.779; LA Angels (Pineiro) 16.195
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-130); Under

Game 979-980: Boston at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 15.525; NY Yankees (Burnett) 14.636
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 11
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 981-982: Boston at NY Yankees (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 14.762; NY Yankees (Nova) 15.320
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

CFL

Calgary at Hamilton
The Stampeders look to bounce back from last week's 32-19 loss to BC and build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games following a loss in the previous week. Calgary is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+1)

Game 497-498: Calgary at Hamilton (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 111.642; Hamilton 109.933
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 1 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 1; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+1); Under

WNBA

Indiana at Atlanta
The Dream look to take advantage of an Indiana team that is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 playoff games as an underdog from 1 to 4 1/2 points. Atlanta is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4 1/2)

Game 605-606: Indiana at Atlanta (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 111.734; Atlanta 117.738
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 6; 154
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 157 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4 1/2); Under

Game 607-608: Minnesota at Phoenix (5:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 113.301; Phoenix 116.956
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 3 1/2; 178
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 175 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-1 1/2); Over

Carlo Campanella

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Arizona Cardinals -3½

It was only 3 years ago (2008) that Arizona was trying to pull the Super Bowl upset and 2 seasons (2009) back when Arizona dominated the NFC West with a 10-6 regular season record behind QB Kurt Warner. After QB Warner retired, the Cards dropped to 5-11 (2010) and was swept by these Division-rival Seahawks, a team that they had posted a 6-1 record during the previous 7 meetings before last season! Well, they acquired former Eagle's QB Kolb and are now 1-1 and just 1 point away from a 2-0 start after losing to a capable Washington squad 22-21 last Sunday. Arizona knows that they MUST WIN this game to regain their old NFC West Division dominance against an 0-2 Seattle squad that's lead by former Viking's QB Tavaris Jackson and has already been outscored 17 to 57 points after the first 2 games of this season! It's only Week #3, but soon the public and Oddsmakers will be confident that Arizona is the class of the NFC West...Take advantage while you still can!

Stephen Nover

49ers @ Bengals
Pick: Under 40.5

I'm not expecting much offense from either team.

San Francisco figures to be flat coming from the West Coast and playing at an early start time. The 49ers could still have a lingering headache from their home overtime loss to Dallas last Sunday.

Alex Smith is the 49ers' major problem. He's barely shown improvement from his rookie season. He's far more of a game-manager than a dangerous downfield threat. Smith isn't helped by Jim Harbaugh's conservative offensive approach.

Because of Smith's ineptness, defenses can stack the line and keep Frank Gore in check. That's what happened in the 49ers' first two games. San Francisco failed to break the 210-yard offensive barrier against Seattle and Dallas, two mediocre defenses.

Gore, the 49ers' top threat, hasn't been able to do anything. Now the 49ers won't have Braylon Edwards, their top deep threat. San Francisco's offense mainly is going to consist of Gore running and Smith throwing short passes to Vernon Davis.

The Bengals are going with rookie Andy Dalton at quarterback. Dalton is going through a learning curve. It's unlikely Dalton will have Jerome Simpson available. Simpson, the Bengals' receiving yardage leader, has a lot of explaining to do after 8 1/2 pounds of marijuana was discovered at his home.

The Bengals are very conservative. Expect them to run Cedric Benson 20-25 times. Benson isn't in Gore's class.

Both teams have better defenses than offenses. But because of fluke occurrences, each team has gone over in both of their games. That's why this total is higher than it should be.

Tony Stoffo

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills +9

Buffalo will definitely be competitive here as the Patriots rank 31st defensively and with Bills offense ranking 1st in the league in Rushing the ball will keep the New England defense off balanced all game long. Saying this I look for this game to turn into a major shootout with the Bills keeping it close right to the end. Buffalo is 15-4 ATS off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less.

Marc Lawrence

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons

Sunday night’s come-from-behind win over the Eagles may be just the spark the Falcons needed to get back on track. The last time that Atlanta tasted victory was in early January and the boo-birds were starting to show their wings in the Georgia Dome as the Falcons began to stumble in the second half. Today’s change of venue certainly won’t hurt as the Bucs are just 5-11 SU and 3-12-1 ATS at home under third-year head coach Raheem Morris. And while it helps that Atlanta HC Mike Smith is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS versus a division opponent off a SU win, the clincher comes from our database as it notes: since 2000, Game Three home teams are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in a matchup when both teams arrive off SU underdog wins. Morris’ 0-4 SU mark against the Dirty Birds is just icing on the cake. We recommend a 1-unit play on Atlanta.

Matt Fargo

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders
PICK: Oakland Raiders +3.5

The Jets have had the luxury of playing their first two games at home and now they have to travel out west to take on the Raiders. Making the transition even more difficult is that the Jets have not left New York since the first week of preseason when it traveled to Houston as its other preseason road game came against the Giants in their own stadium. This is the first of three straight road games with games at the Ravens and Patriots on deck so there may be some lookahead involved.

Even of the Jets are not taking this game lightly, we are catching a good line in a good situation with the home team. Oakland is coming off a tough loss last week in Buffalo after winning its opener in Denver on Monday night. That marks this the first home game of the season for Oakland which is obviously just the opposite for the visiting team. It can be argued that the Raiders are a field goal away of having a chance to be 2-0 but the opposite holds true as well and that is where we can see the contrarian value come in.

Oakland will have to move the ball on offense and that will come down to the play of Darren McFadden. He is turning into one of the elite backs in the NFL and if he can get going against the Jets, it will open up the passing game for Jason Campbell who is capable of big games as the offense is getting difficult to contain. The Jets have allowed the shortest yards per drive through the first two weeks and they are yielding just one point per drive. It won't be easy but getting New York in its first road game helps.

The Oakland defense was horrible last week against Buffalo and it has to tighten up quickly. The 25 first downs the Raiders allowed the Bills in the second half were the second-most first downs in the second half of an NFL game since 1991. They are also the only team since at least 1993 to allow five touchdowns on five drives in the second half. These are not good to swallow but remember teams are not always as bad as they looked the previous week and vice versa. And the Jets offense will not take full advantage.

To no surprise, the early betting percentages are all over the Jets yet we are not seeing a line movement at all with the exception of just a couple spots where the line has actually dropped but it comes with a lot of juice behind it. The Raiders are part of a superb long-tern situation also. Play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) since 1983. 3* Oakland Raiders

MTi Sports

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Prediction: Buffalo Bills

The League is 15-0 ATS (+8.4) as 7+ point home dog when they average at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Panthers qualified last week in their cover vs the Packers and the Bills, who have averaged 33:54 minutes of possession time per game this season, qualify this week. The 2-0 Bills are off a remarkable win that can instill a team with confidence and excitement. Close wins have buoyed the Bills in the past, as they are 18-0 ATS (+11.0 ppg) since 1989 when they beat a non-divisional opponent by 1-3 points last week, as long as they were not shut out in the fourth quarter. The Patriots are 0-7 ATS (-15.1 ppg) the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards at home as a TD+ favorite ? losing to the number by double-digits in EVERY game. Take the points.

Steve Janus

Chicago Bears +4

For whatever reason the Bears just don't get a lot of credit from the oddsmakers, and that has set up a must play on Chicago in week 3 against the Packers. Green Bay comes into the game extremely hyped after winning the Super Bowl and starting the season 2-0, but have had their troubles against the Bears in recent matchups. Chicago's defense plays at a whole different level on their home field, and are going to come into this game extremely motivated after having their season ended by the Packers in the NFC Championship game last season.

Chicago is 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss, and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. BET THE BEARS!

Jim Feist

Dodgers / Padres
Pick Under

Not much left to play for at this point in the season for these teams. Pride always comes to mind, but you have to wonder how many players have their minds on tee times. However, one player you can be sure will be going all out is Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw is one of the leading candidates for the NL Cy Young award. Also looking for post season honors, Matt Kemp is very close to the Triple Crown. Kershaw has a 20-5 record, 2.27 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. In addition Kershaw has 242 strikeouts versus just 53 walks. Cory Luebke starts for the Padres. Luebke has a 3.23 ERA and nice 1.05 WHIP. I wouldn't be surprised at all by a Dodgers shutout win here on Sunday. One thing is almost certain, runs will be at a premium.

SPORTS WAGERS

SAN DIEGO –14½ over Kansas City

You could lay 28 points in this one and still feel pretty good about it. This is like Wisconsin v South Dakota. How desperate are the Chiefs? Last week in Detroit, they were down 17-3 seconds before the half and that clever Todd Haley tried to ice the always-reliable veteran kicker Jason Hanson on a 28-yard field goal. Yeah Todd, you really piled on the pressure there. Hanson had to be sweating bullets over a 28-yarder in the middle of a blowout. We’re still trying to figure out how that didn’t work. Usually teams bounce back from a blowout. Usually teams bounce back from back-to-back blowouts. The Chiefs aren’t capable of such. They have nothing and in fact, things are not better, they’re worse. The only player with a chance of making the season bearable was Jamaal Charles and now he’s gone for the year. Now the Chiefs have a coach they can’t stand, no QB, no RB’s, no playmakers and no defense. The Chargers have a horrible history of poor starts recently and this year is no different after a tough opener against Minnesota, a team they were supposed to whack and a loss last week in New England. They’re in no position to take anyone lightly and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Chiefs are one of their rivals. Last season the Chargers opened the year in KC on a Monday night and lost. The rematch in San Diego resulted in a 31-0 pasting by the host and this one has that same feel. The Chargers are loaded with nothing but talent and explosive players. There is no way the shorthanded Chiefs can match the Chargers in terms of anything. Chargers have been outscored 89-10 in two games so let’s call this final 89-10. Play: San Diego –14½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

CINCINNATI –2½ over San Francisco

The NFC West is a joke. The only time we should expect close games with teams from that lame division is when they face each other. Just two weeks into the season, the NFC Worst sits at 2-6 as a group with the only wins being the Niners over Seattle (divisional) and Arizona slipping by the Panthers in Cam Newton’s NFL debut. Now the Niners must travel for first time this season for an early kickoff in the east. They are led by their seven-year itch, QB Alex Smith. The Bengals are guided by rookie QB Andy Dalton, whose numbers show a respectable 413 yards passing, three touchdowns to zero interceptions, a 105.7 rating and a 66% completion rate. It isn't a commonly known fact, but the Bengals' defensive front of Michael Johnson, Carlos Dunlap and Jonathan Fanene is very young, talented and active. You can count on them making life miserable for Alex Smith. Frank Gore is having little or no impact right now. Home opener for Cincinnati will be filled with renewed enthusiasm and support, as the Bengals are 1-1, they could be 2-0 and they’re playing with a huge chip on their shoulders after being labeled the laughing stock of the league. Play: Cincinnati –2½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

OAKLAND +3 over N.Y. Jets

After losing some key players in the off-season and being led by a humdrum quarterback, we thought Oakland was in for a long season. However, this appears to be a gritty club that will do battle weekly and this visitor is about to learn that. The Jets may be undefeated but they were completely outplayed by Dallas in opener before lopsided score with Jaguars was significantly more impressive than they were. There is concern with New York ’s running game and they can hardly rely on the limited arm of Mark Sanchez. The Raiders are home after rainy Monday nighter in Denver followed by short week to Buffalo, where they simply ran out of gas. Also note that the Jets have the Ravens on deck in Sunday night prime time affair and this Jets team loves the spotlight more than any other. Play: Oakland +3 +100 (Risking 2 units).

INDIANAPOLIS +10½ over Pittsburgh

This is getting out of hand. We know that Peyton Manning is out. Peyton’s Place is becoming quite a Peyton Place, no? We get it. We know that the Colts were trounced in opener and then soundly defeated by the visiting Browns. We recognize that. But for the Steelers to be a double-digit favorite, in Indianapolis, in a prime-time featured game is simply absurd. The Steelers are more smoke than fire and Indy’s pass-rushers can inflict damage on a gimpy Ben Roethlisberger playing behind a suspect offensive line. When a starting QB goes down the oddsmakers adjust the line and usually take away four to five points. For instance, if Michael Vick weren’t playing against the Giants this week, Philly would be a -4½-point choice. With Vick they’re –8. If Peyton Manning were playing this game, the Colts would be a –3 or –3½-point favorite. So, instead of awarding the Colts the usual three or four points for the injury, the books have gone way over the top and overcompensated by giving the Colts an incredible extra 13 points. Colts QB Kerry Collins is a relic but with a couple of games to acclimate and his familiarity with the visitor, this one can stay competitive and even the unthinkable can occur. Play: Indianapolis +10½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Jacksonville +4/+160 over CAROLINA

Cam Newton? Wow! He’s the next Superman! The guy is unbelievable! He’s the talk of the NFL. His two starts have been impressive in terms of yards passed but c’mon folks, let’s put this into perspective. Cam Newton has a QB rating in the 80’s. Andy Dalton’s QB rating is 105. Newton is one of four QB’s in the league that has thrown more picks than touchdowns. The other three are Jon Kitna, Luke McCown and Matt Cassells. The Panthers were projected to win between three and five games all year and they’re right on track to do just that. The media overhype on Newton is rearing its ugly head and we’re not ready to make his feeble team more than a field-goal favorite until they win some games. Rookie Blaine Gabbert will start for Jacksonville and that can’t be any worse than what was. Gabbert was ranked second to Andrew Luck. He was a stud at Missouri (40 TD’s in two years) and was the 10th pick of the draft. He’s been impressive everywhere he’s played with his arm strength, pocket presence, situational awareness and speed. Yeah, the NFL is a whole different level but the Jags need a boost and they’ll get back to being a running team with one of the best backs in the business in Maurice Jones-Drew. Teams are going to take Newton a little more seriously now and while he may turn out to be very good, he’s not yet and as a whole, the Panthers are not better than the Jags. Media plus Newton hype has the price on this game out of sorts. Play: Jacksonville +4 (Risking 1.1 units to win 1) Play: Jacksonville +160 (Risking 1 unit).

THE REST:

Patriots (2-0) at Bills (2-0)

First place on the line. What??? While it’s the norm for the Patriots to feel good about themselves, the Bills have suddenly found their own swagger. Surely, Buffalo is not in this class but as a divisional home dog in this price range, they could keep it close. Having said that, the Bills beat a horrible Chiefs team, they were getting crushed before Oakland ran out of gas and they could be a fraud. Don’t go nuts here. TAKING: BILLS +9

Texans (2-0) at Saints (1-1)

Sorry, not willing to trust the Texans quite yet. Yes, they did what was required in handling the Colts and Dolphins as they aim for first ever 3-0 start. But this is a much tougher assignment as stopping Chad Henne and Kerry Collins is a far cry from halting Drew Brees and the Saints’ arsenal. TAKING: SAINTS –4

Dolphins (0-2) at Browns (1-1)

Most people enjoy Florida. The Dolphins can’t wait to leave. Miami has now dropped 11 of 12 in own stadium while covering 11 of 14 away from there. After being pelted by the Patriots and Texans, the Fish won’t mind dealing with the Browns’ pedestrian offense. TAKING: DOLPHINS +2½

Broncos (1-1) at Titans (1-1)

Seems that beating Baltimore stands for something. We don’t quite get it but after Tennessee’s upset win last week, oddsmakers have anointed the Titans as a near touchdown chalk. Denver is every bit that their hosts are and they expect to get a bunch of injured dudes back this week. TAKING: BRONCOS +6½

Giants (1-1) at Eagles (1-1)

Eagles will be miffed after tough loss in Atlanta on Sunday night and that should spell trouble for this banged up Giants team. The G-Men showed little in win over Rams and with this being Philly’s home opener, this one could get away early. TAKING: EAGLES –7½

Lions (2-0) at Vikings (0-2)

What do Charlie Sheen and the Lions have in common? That’s right, winning! Detroit has now won 10 straight including last year’s final four, four pre-season and two games this year. QB Matthew Stafford has yet to be sacked and these felines have the best for-against differential in the league. Why then, are the Lions only a 3½-point choice when the Pats and Steelers are 9 and 10½-point choices respectively? Before you pull the trigger on Detroit, like everyone else, you had better ask yourself that. We wonder too how the Vikes will compete but we also recognize a trap when we see one. Be very careful here. TAKING: VIKINGS +3½

Ravens (1-1) at Rams (0-2)

Just who are the Ravens? The team that manhandled the Steelers in opener or the squad that was firmly whipped by the ordinary Titans? Until we see the Ravens play with the same intensity that they muster up for Pittsburgh, we’ll fade them spotting road points. TAKING: RAMS +4½

Falcons (1-1) at Buccaneers (1-1)

Atlanta seems a bit off and only some fortunate circumstances allowed it to escape a 0-2 start. A win and travel scenario may be ill timed, especially against a division mate that is looking to avenge five straight losses in this series. Tampa needs to, and should be focused for four quarters. TAKING: BUCCANEERS –1½

Cardinals (1-1) at Seahawks (0-2)

The Seahags are an offensive disaster, having penetrated their opposition’s 20-yard line just twice this season. However, despite having a win, the Cardinals defense is amongst the league’s worst and cannot be trusted to keep any team away from the end zone. TAKING: SEAHAWKS +3½

Packers (2-0) at Bears (1-1)

Chicago QB Jay Cutler may get hit like a piñata in this one but still prefer home-town Bears against their arch-rivals. Packers were fortunate to defeat Saints in opener and had to work harder than expected to take down Panthers. Spirited matchup should remain close. TAKING: BEARS +3½

This week’s SURVIVOR pick:

Used so far: Arizona, Detroit.

SAN DIEGO over Kansas City

You can play against these Chiefs every week because they really are that bad. This is about as safe a play as you’ll ever see. Chargers will not lose.

Spartan

Kansas City +15

Well no doubt there will be many people convinced I've completely lost my mind here. Let me point out two things before you laugh and move along. I've had paid releases in both of Kansas City's first two games and have nailed both easily. First week when the Bills rolled into Arrowhead and humiliated this bunch in front of the shocked masses. Then last sunday I unloaded a Triple Star Game of the Month on Detroit and we all witnessed the carnage that ensued. Now the time has come for this group to suck it up and see what is actually in their chest cavity, a heart or just a big nothing. I reside in Missouri and typically have had my finger on the pulse with this team and my instincts are screaming to me that the Chiefs conclude this battle within the given number. Do I thiink they will go out there and leave with the outright? Not really but I do expect Chiefs bettors to be cashing their tickets for the first time in a long time. The Chiefs are a team limping into this ball game, both mentally and literally. It's my personal opinion this dog has been kicked repeatedly and finally snaps out of it and shows some teeth this sunday. I say take the very generous points guys, hold your nose and take the Kansas City Chiefs plus the 15 points.

Rob Vinciletti

Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Miami Dolphins +3.5

Miami fits the nice system below that plays on road team in games with a line of -3 to +3 that are off a home dog loss and scored 21 or less vs an opponent that was a road favorite. These road teams have won 13 of 16 outright. Another system which has cashed 25 of 37 times is to play on road teams off back to back home dog losses vs an opponent off a road win. Miami is 5-0 straight up as a road dog of 3 or less and plays this one with home loss revenge from last season 13-10 home loss to Cleveland. The Browns are 1-7 straight up in September and 0-5 straight up in home games when the total is 38.5 to 42. Look for Miami to get the cash here today. On Sunday there are 5 big Plays led by the AFC West game of the Year from a 16-2 system that dates to 1977. The game also has 3 Power Angles that equal to 37-2 ats. Other plays include an early 94% Power System side, a Double system dog with a perfect system, Triple system Sunday night play with 88% totals system as well. Jump on and cash big today as NFL is 25 games over .500 the last 2+ years. For the Free system club Play take the Miami Dolphins.

Teddy Covers

Ravens @ Rams
Pick: Over 42.5

The Ravens were embarrassed last week on the offensive side of the football. The line couldn’t protect Joe Flacco from a mediocre Titans pass rush. Flacco’s downfield receivers – high priced, big play wideouts Anquan Boldin and Lee Evans – combined for only five catches between them. Ray Rice got stuffed repeatedly as Baltimore averaged only 2.6 yards per carry, one week after Rice gained 5.6 yards per carry against the Steelers stout ‘D’. Facing a Rams defense that’s dead last in the NFL against the run through the first two weeks of the season, expect Baltimore’s offense to get the running game working here, opening up the downfield passing attack. Look for big play rookie WR Torrey Smith to enjoy a breakout game, and for the Ravens to turn red zone opportunities into touchdowns.

The Rams are going to run their uptempo, no huddle offense for extended periods on Sunday, just like they did this past Monday Night against the Giants. The no huddle offense is a huge boost for Over bettors because it extends the game. Baltimore, too, is likely to get off many more snaps than they normally would against a normal huddling team. And the Rams coaching staff is smart enough to know that running up the gut against the strength of Baltimore’s defense is no recipe for success for a desperate 0-2 team on their fast turf. Expect Sam Bradford to be firing away downfield early and often, creating optimal conditions for an Over result. Take the Over.

Jimmy Moore

Detroit @ Minnesota
Pick: Detroit -3.5

I know the Lions have not beaten Minnesota on the road since 1997 but that is exactly what makes this a good play since the Lions are playing much better than Minnesota right now and the coaches can keep the Lions grounded and focused by using this stat. McNabb is nowhere near the QB he was in his prime and the Lions solid D line will hold down Peterson's yards.