Jack Clayton
NY Jets at Raiders
Pick: NY Jets
The Jets (2-0 SU/1-1 ATS) are loaded defensively, with a pair of talented cornerbacks who can play one-on-one, which frees Rex Ryan to bring extra defenders to the line and blitz frequently. QB Mark Sanchez (4 TDs, 3 INTs) leads a ball control, conservative offense behind a terrific offensive line, though newcomer WR Plaxico Burress teams with Santana Moss to give them potential balance. The Jets put it all together Sunday in whipping the one-dimensional Jaguars, 32-3, allowing 203 yards and forcing 4 turnovers. The Raiders are 6-21-2 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. Play the NY Jets.
Scott Delaney
N.Y. Jets at Oakland
Off their 29-point rout of the Jacksonville Jaguars, I can't deny the New York Jets' will to win this one over the Oakland Raiders, even if it is entirely across the country. Sunday's game at the Coliseum marks the first of three straight on the road, as the fly boys next play at Baltimore, and then in New England, which could be a showdown of undefeated AFC East rivals. But first things first, the Jets need to take care of business over the 1-1 Raiders in their home opener.
It's not going to be a win that'll come easy, but the Jets should be able to wear Oakland down and pull away for the win and cover. Just as in their first two games of the season, when it comes down to the end of the game, it'll be crystal clear the Jets' defense is the biggest difference against inferior teams. The defense is the foundation of this team, but what's finally aiding the stop unit, is once it gives the offense an opportunity to capitalize on field position and more time of possession, quarterback Mark Sanchez is proving he has grown and matured into a quality field general.
Let's not forget that Sanchez is a California boy, so coming back to his home state and time zone won't be a shock for him. And since taking over as quarterback for the Jets, he has won both his visits to the Golden State, beating the Raiders 38-0, and then over the San Diego Chargers, 17-14, in the playoffs to guide the Jets to the 2010 AFC title game.
The Raiders simply don't have a comparable defense, so every time Sanchez is given a chance to lead his offense downfield, he's going to wear out Oakland's stop unit. And before you know it, New York's defense is going to stop the Raiders, and force their defense back on the field. Not good when you're ranked 25th overall, 21st against the pass and 27th against the rush.
Valiant effort by the Silver and Black, perhaps over one quarter. But the Jets are going to dominate this game.
3♦ N.Y. JETS
Chuck O'Brien
Green Bay at Chicago
Am I the only one who believes the Chicago Bears can beat the Green Bay Packers outright on Sunday, Sept. 25? I'm taking the 3-1/2 points, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Bears were to win this game outright, and get the upper hand in the NFC North division. Seriously, I realize the New Orleans Saints just worked the piss out of the Bears, winning 30-13, but this is a revenge game of sorts.
Green Bay beat the Bears in the NFC title game, at Soldier Field, 21-14. The Bears were the NFC North champs, and the Packers were the Wild Card team needing to win their games on the road throughout the postseason. Mission accomplished. And even though some say the Packers are on their way to another Super Bowl appearance, I believe the Bears have a score to settle. Seriously, make note the Packers beat the Bears in Soldier Field for 11 straight years while Brett Favre was their quarterback; the record is now 2-2 since Favre retired - including that title game last season.
Let's face it, this game is always a big deal, whenever and wherever it is played.
Green Bay has knocked off those same Saints that beat up on Chicago, 42-34, but it took a last-second defensive stand to net the win, and last week beat Carolina, 30-23, down on tobacco road. Now the Packers have a tough game back on the road, and something tells me that defense is in store for a long game. After all, the Packers were down 14-0 to the Panthers last week, and we've already seen the Bears protect Jay Cutler against the Falcons.
And don't you find it a bit funny the total in this game is set at 45-1/2, when the average total of the past ten years of regular season games between the Packers and Chicago is 34.6? Tells me the oddsmakers are expecting a decent-scoring game between the league's longest rivalry in the NFL. And my money is that it'll be a field goal game either way, so take the dog with the extra hook.
2♦ CHICAGO
Chris Jordan
New England at Buffalo
The Buffalo Bills have found their happy place. And at 2-0 on the season, and the visiting New Enland Patriots bringing their all-explosive offense to Orchard Park on Sunday, I'm calling the home team's bluff in this one, by forcing them to cover the +8' points. Yes, I'm drinking the Kool Aid boys.
Sure, the Bills have their work cut out for them against the three-time Super Bowl champs, but if you've watched this team at all, you can see how quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing with a different scent of confidence this season, leading his team to two campaign-opening wins.
And here's what impresses me most about the Bills' surging offensive unit, forget the fact Fitzpatrick threw for 264 yards and three touchdowns, including the deciding touchdown strike to wide receiver David Nelson with 14 seconds left, to complete the comeback from being down 21-3 at the half to win, 38-35. How about the Bills leading the NFL with their rushing offense after Week 2? Buffalo is averaging 193 yards per game, almost 10 yards better than the second-place Eagles (184.5) and more than 20 yards better than third-place Minnesota (172.5), and if the Bills can control the tempo of this game by running the ball and draining the clock, the Patriots' offense might not have that much time on the field.
I don't know what exactly has gotten into the Bills, quite honestly, but it's refreshing to have scuttlebutt out of the AFC East on a team that isn't the Patriots or New York Jets. Perhaps it's not just Fitzgerald's passing game, I mean, the Bills rank 19th in the league in passing, but more so it's his intelligence for the game, I mean he is a Harvard grad and all. His leadership and smarts on the field have led the Bills to be the league's most successful red-zone team (80% of their trips there have netted touchdowns).
And since New England is bringing in the second-worst passing defense, 11th-ranked rushing defense and 31st overall defense in the league, I'd have to believe coach Bill Belichick has some things to be worried about.
I'm playing the Bills here, taking as many points as I can find, and going to look for a shootout that comes down to the end.
3♦ BUFFALO
Jacksonville at Carolina
So, coach Jacksonville Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio will start a third different quarterback, as he named Blaine Gabbert the go-to guy for this Sunday's contest in Carolina. The game will be the first matchup of No. 1 draft picks facing each other in their rookie years since 2006, as Cam Newton was Carolina's top pick in April's draft.
I realize the Jaguars beat the Tennessee Titans, 16-14, in Week 1 in what was conceived as a stellar defensive effort, but last week that hit the skids when the New York Jets routed Jacksonville, 32-3. And I don't care what anyone has to say, I believe whole-heartedly that Newton is the real deal, and has the potential to roll all over and through Jacksonville's defense.
Newton ranks 2nd behind Tom Brady in the passing department, with 854 yards through the air, and quite frankly, has been a revelation for the 0-2 Panthers. And even though there are 14 games left in the season, a 2-0 start compared to a 0-2 start is huge, and some might argue the Panthers need a team-identifying win with their next four games being at Chicago, versus the Saints, at Atlanta and versus Washington.
The Redskins game kicks off a three-week homestand that will also include the Vikings and Titans, but the Panthers need a win on the board. A convincing win, too, so there's a bit of confidence to rely on when they arrive at Soldier Field on Oct. 2.
Let's lay the points here, as I'm going to count on the Panthers to harass Gabbert in his debut, while I also believe Newton is going to have a huge game, after performing respectably at Arizona and against Green Bay.
4♦ CAROLINA
Matt Rivers
New England at Buffalo
These teams have been lighting up the scoreboard this season, and I see no reason to think the offense won't continue.
Both have played over the total in each of their first two games, and the Pats have now gone over the total in 18 of their last 21 games overall.
As for Buffalo, Ryan Fitzpatrick has this offense humming, as the Bills have scored 79-points already, and I don't think the suspect New England secondary is going to make enough stops to keep this game from sailing over this high total.
The over trends are just too strong to ignore, and since we are still in September, the chances of a blizzard helping to keep this game low-scoring won't be an issue.
Take the over in New England-Buffalo.
4♦ OVER
James Patrick Sports
Dolphins vs. Browns
Miami’s success on the road under HC Tony Sparano is rewarding to investors with a (15-9) SU mark and (17-7) record ATS in his career. The Dolphins are (0-2) but they had to play the Houston Texans and New England Patriots. Cleveland has faced Cincinnati and a depleted Indianapolis team and the Browns lost to the Bengals. We look for Miami to get its first win here as the Dolphins are (11-3) ATS in their past (14) road affairs. Big Game James Patrick's Sunday NFL complimentary selection is Miami Dolphins.
We're siding with the Tennessee Titans -6.5 (BetOnline) at home over the Denver Broncos. According to our analysis, Tennessee should win by two scores or better here. Tennessee lost their opening game on the road against the Jaguars 16-14 as they weren't quite situated offensively yet with Chris Johnson just coming back to a new offensive scheme and QB Matt Hasselback getting his first start for his new team. They bounced back in a big way last week at home against the Ravens, dominating almost every aspect of that game (more so than they final score revealed anyway). Kyle Ortons had decent numbers so far. But Tennessee's defense, particularly in the secondary has been very stingey (allowing only 172 yds/game). Meanwhile Denver has some glaring weakness on the defensive side of the ball (allowing 335 yards/game). Chris Johnson should have a big day, and we expect veteran QB Matt Hasselback make less mistakes as he becomes more familiar with his new playbook in his 3rd start for Tennessee. Play the Titans -6.5
Don Wallace Sports
Miami Dolphins +2.5
The Dolphins aren't panicking yet, but a loss to the Browns might send the team over the edge. The Dolphins hold a 9-7 series lead, but the Browns have won the last three games. The Dolphins haven't won in Cleveland since a 24-14 decision on October 10, 1993. But Tony Sparano's team have done well on the road, winning 15 of 24 road games in his three seasons as head coach. Cleveland's right tackles, Tony Pashos and Oniel Cousins, are both battling nagging injuries that could impact their performance. But Dolphins inside linebacker Karlos Dansby is nursing a groin injury that could prevent him from covering tight ends and tailbacks effectively downfield. Miami 18-6 vs. line last 24 on the highway. Browns 2-8 vs. line since mid 2010. MIAMI 21 CLEVELAND 14
Chicago Bears +4
Dom Capers has fielded top-five-ranked defenses in each of his two seasons running the Green Bay defense. In two games in 2011, though, the Packers have allowed 477 to the Saints and 475 to Panthers, respectively. The Packers won both of those games. Neither of those teams knows the Packers' offense like Chicago. Look for Harry Melton, Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije to get after Aaron Rodgers early and often. If the Bears can keep Jay Cutler upright, I like Chicago to defend its home turf and serve the Pack their first loss in 10 games. Bears are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. GREEN BAY 17 CHICAGO 24
Steve Merril
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Arizona Cardinals -3
Arizona survived the premiere of the “Cam Newton Show” in Week 1, and after losing to the Redskins on a late field goal on the road last week, they open divisional play on the road against the Seahawks. While all the quarterback talk in the league has been about Newton’s great start, Tom Brady’s record setting performance, and Peyton Manning’s absence, the Cardinals’ new quarterback Kevin Kolb has quietly completed 62% of his passes for 560 yards and a 4/1 TD/INT ratio. Kolb seems to be the answer that Arizona needed at the quarterback position. Seattle has been forced to play catch up all season being outscored 33-0 in the first half of games so far. And with an offense that is averaging less than 9 points per game, the Seahawks need drastic improvement to simply become competitive. They are last in rushing while averaging less than 3 yards per rush and last in passing while averaging just 4.4 yards per pass attempt. Their defense has allowed 57 points in two games and that spells trouble against a dangerous Arizona offense that has scored 28 and 21 points in their first two games. Larry Fitzgerald got going last week with 133 yards receiving and we’ll look for him and Kolb to hook up often against a bad Seahawks pass defense. When handicapping opposing teams with less than stellar defenses, the obvious choice is to look for the better offense and the Cardinals own that in this game. Kolb has shown that he can make all the throws and he has tremendous pocket presence. With the talent around him now, he should flourish as the offense gets into a consistent flow. Seattle has yet to find an answer at quarterback and the only thing their offense is accomplishing at the moment is putting pressure on their own defense. Defensively, the Cardinals are not where they need to be, but this week they catch a break against a struggling Seattle offense. In Whisenhunt's tenure with the Cardinals, they are 18-13 ATS after a SU loss so we expect a focused effort leading to a win and pointspread cover in Seattle on Sunday.
Rocketman
Detroit @ Minnesota
Play: Minnesota +3.5
Detroit is 0-8 SU and ATS as a road favorite of 3 1/2 points or less. Minnesota is 17-2 SU at home vs Detroit since 1992. Detroit is 3-7 ATS last 10 meetings in this series including 1-4 ATS last 5 in Minnesota. Detroit is 1-8 ATS off a straight up win vs opponent with revenge. Detroit is 1-6 ATS away off a non-conference game. Detroit is 1-6 ATS a double digit SU win and ATS win. Jim Schwartz is 0-5 ATS vs a less than .500 opponent off back to back straight up losses. Minnesota is 11-1 ATS off back to back SU losses vs .500 or better opponent. We'll recommend a small play on Minnesota today!
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Minnesota Vikings +3.5
Detroit is getting a little too much respect from odds makers on the road today. The Vikings have won 13 in a row at home in this series, and they'll be hungry here after blowing a 17-0 lead in last week's loss to Tampa Bay. The Vikings won 24-10 at home against Detroit in Week 3 last year behind a 160-yard, two-touchdown performance by Adrian Peterson. Expect the All-Pro running back to be the difference-maker again today. The Lions, who ranked 24th in the league in 2010 with 124.9 rushing yards allowed per game, showed some susceptibility to the run by allowing Kansas City to rush for 151 yards last week. Historically speaking, this is a good spot for Minnesota. Consider that plays on any team off an upset loss at home, in the first half of the season, are 59-28 ATS the last 5 seasons. It also can't be ignored that the Lions are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite. We'll take the points with the home team.
Freddy Wills
Houston Texans vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: New Orleans Saints -3½
Love the Saints right now the Texans beat two teams that are not going to the playoffs in the Dolphins and the Colts and really are not prepared for what Brees is going to bring in this match up. Brees has not thrown an interception and he has a ridiculous 157.7 QB rating on 3rd down, best in NFL. He dominated the Packers pass defense that was one of the best a year ago and took care of the Bears a team that dominated a very good Falcons team. Saints are back in my opinion they had a very good off season and should win this game. Saints remember getting robbed vs. the Packers and the Texans to me are a worse version of the Packers. Texans can throw the ball and run, but I believe the Saints defense will be more aggressive with blitzs and that should result in turnovers. Texans are 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 following an ATS win and the Saints are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as a home favorite 3.5-10 points.
Larry Ness
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers
Ian Kennedy won his 21st game last night for the D’backs, in what has truly been an outstanding season for a man who entered this year with a lifetime record of 10-14. Then there is Philadelphia’s Roy Halladay, who won the NL Cy Young award last year (also won one in the AL back in 2003 with Toronto), who is 18-6 with a 2.341 ERA and goes for win No. 19 today at Citi Field vs the Mets. Both are deserving candidates for this year’s NL Cy Young award, but the winner HAS to be LA’s Clayton Kershaw. No Dodger has won 21 games or the NL Cy Young since Orel Hershiser accomplished both in 1988 but Kershaw could (should) change both of those facts in 2011. He’s 20-5 with a 2.27 ERA on the season, allowing a modest 170 hits in 226 innings while striking out an NL-high 242. He leads the NL in ERA, strikeouts and opponent batting average (.208). Kershaw enters this game 7-0 with a 0.77 ERA in his last eight starts after limiting San Francisco to one run and six hits in 7.1 innings of Tuesday’s 2-1 win. That gave him a 5-0 record this year vs the hated Giants, with FOUR of those wins coming over San Fran’s two-time Cy Young winner, Tim Lincecum. It should also be pointed out that while Halladay pitches for the Phillies (owners of MLB’s best record at 98-60) and Kennedy for the D’backs (winners of the NL West and currently 92-68), Kershaw has gone 20-5 (.800) for the Dodgers, a team which is just 79-78 (.503). The Dodgers are 22-10 (.688) in all of Kershaw’s starts but only 57-68 (.456) when someone else takes the mound. That’s called a “difference-maker.” He’s 6-3 with a 2.31 in 12 career starts vs San Diego (team is 8-4), including 2-0 this year with a 1.50 ERA. Padre starters have posted a 2.03 ERA in eight home games against the Dodgers this year and will give the ball to Cory Luebke (6-9 3.23 ERA). The left-handed rookie didn’t join the rotation until June 26 (first 29 appearances this year were out of the bullpen) and he has shown promise. The team is 8-8 in his 16 starts but just 1-4 in his last five, while he’s posted a 4.45 ERA. Luebke is no match this afternoon for Kershaw.
SPORTS WAGERS
Calgary -1½ over HAMILTON
**Note that although the Ticats are considered the home team, the game will be played in Moncton, New Brunswick. This game is really tough to handicap because both teams are so erratic. The Stamps look great one week and show no interest the next. The Tabbies have been even more erratic. In fact, Hamilton’s current form is the worst in the league. After beating Montreal three weeks ago, the Ticats lost to Montreal the following week 43-13 and followed that up with a 38-23 loss at home to Edmonton. In that game last week against the Eskies, Hamilton was outgained by nearly 200 yards. Teams that get blown out have a tendency to bounce back but we’re not so sure Hamilton is capable right now. This is a fragile club whose confidence has to be a little shaken after consecutive blowouts. Calgary has been blown out also in two of the past three weeks but they’re simply the better team that just lacks focus. Additionally, the Stamps have been better on the road and that, too, makes them a better choice. Play: Calgary –1½ (No bets).
Passing MLB
EZWINNERS
Detroit Lions -3
Times have really changed as the Lions who could never win a game on the road are now finding themselves favored on the road and within the division! This young Detroit has all the makings of a playoff team if their key personnel stays healthy and I expect them to keep it rolling once again. They are facing a Vikings team that is very similar to the Kansas City team that they throttled 48-3 last week. Minnesota will try to pound it with Adrian Peterson on the ground, but this Minnesota team features one of the worst offensive lines in the league this season. Donovan McNabb looks like he is way past his prime and the Minnesota passing game just doesn't scare anyone. Detroit quarterback is off to a very good start and the Vikings are going to have their hands full trying to contain Stafford's favorite target wide receiver Calvin Johnson. Minnesota is just 6-18 straight up and against the spread since 2010 and Detroit is on 14-3 run against the spread. I look for Detroit's success to continue. Lay the points.