Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
SUPER SYSTEM PLAY
SAN DIEGO -14.5 over Kansas City: Boy this is a bad, bad spot for the Chiefs as they head to San Diego to take on a team that is angry off their loss to the Pats last week, plus SD would like to get some payback for this team stealing the AFC West from them last year. The Chiefs defense is banged up and just playing horribly thus far as they have allowed 44.5 ppg and 387.5 ypg through to games so far. The Chiefs defense has also allowed 261 ypg and 8 TD's through the air thus far, while picking off just 2 passes. That has to have Rivers licking his chop as he comes hitting 68.3% of his passes with 13 TD's vs just 4 INT's in his last 6 games vs the Chiefs. Rivers has gone 33-8 an has thrown 66 TD's to just 28 INT's at home in his career. Not only are the Chiefs banged up on defense but their offense is in bad shape as well. Cassel is banged up and they just lost RB Charles for the year. Their OL is a mess and they have no running game now so expect the Chargers excellent pass rush to just tee off on Cassel in this one. Their biggest loss for this offense may have been in the off season when Charlie Wies made his way back to the college ranks. This team comes in averaging just 5 ppg and this will be the best defense they have seen yet. Uhh... maybe a shutout here? I won't go that far, but San Diego will get 20+ points in this , while there is just no way that KC gets 2 TD's vs this defense. Overall KC is a mess. There is friction between GM and Haley, plus Haley really has lost his players. San Diego didn't really play well in their home opener vs the Vikes, but you can expect a more focused group as they look to exact a bit of revenge over a team that took their division crown from them last year. Chargers by 21+ in this one. SUPER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any home favorite that grabbed 28+ first downs last week, but still lost the game both SU & ATS. This system is 17-3 since 1992.
4 UNIT PLAYS
NEW ORLEANS -4 over Houston: Houston is 2-0 on the year, but who have they faced so far? A Manning-less Colts team and a Miami team that is still learning new offensive schemes. Houston's offense is good yes, but they have been a bit banged up in the early going and now they must try and match the Saints point for point. Uhh, I don't think so. The Texans running game has been good, but the Saint run defense has been solid and they need the running game to keep this fierce Saints pass rush from just teeing off on Shaub. The New Orleans defense grabbed 6 sacks last week vs the Bears and it's interesting to note that the Texans were 0-5-1 ATS on the road last year when they allowed 2 or more sacks. This blitz happy Saints defense should get at least 2 here. The Houston defense has played well in the early going, but they have not faced on offense like this so far. The Saints offense has been it's usually efficient self as they have put up 28 ppg and 241 ypg through the air, while compiling a very nice 11.5 offensive ypp. The this play also has a solid system attached to it, but this is NOT a Power System Play... Home Favorites that outscored their opponents by 4+ ppg last year and they are off a game in which they scored 30+ points are 35-9 ATS since 1983. The Saints are the better team and they play well at home so look for another easy win just like they did last week vs a tougher Bears defense.
Jacksonville/ Carolina Under 43: Yes Cam Newton has thrown for a million yards so far, but I feel that the Jags have the defense to slow him down a bit. Despite throwing for a lot of yards, Cam has made some mistakes this year as he has 4 INT's and just 3 TD's and he will be facing a Jags defense that has 3 INT's thus far. Overall Jacksonville is 5th in yards allowed (287 ypg) and 5th in 3rd down defense (30.3%), so I see The Panthers having some problems scoring today. On the other side we have a Jacksonville offense that is a mess and may be going to Blain Gabbert today. Blaine is an upgrade over McCown, but he is still a Rookie making his first start and Del Rio is still a conservative coach, so I don't expect the Jags to let him go wild in this one, even vs a Carolina defense that has struggled for much of their first 2 games. I see both defenses playing well in this one and keeping the score at or below 35.
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER SYSTEM PLAY
Minnesota/ Detroit Over 45: Donovan McNabb was to increase production in this Minnesota offense, but it just hasn't happened so far. I expect that his third game will be his best so far. Minnesota does not wanna start the season 0-3 so I really look for them to open up the playbook for the athletic McNabb. The Minnesota running has been floundering in the early going, but they could have some success vs a Detroit defense that has allowed teams 4.6 ypc so far. Getting that running game going will open up some throwing lanes for McNabb to take advantage. The Minnesota defense has been horrible vs the pass and Mathew will take advantage. The Vikes so far have allowed 280 ypg through the air and allowed teams to complete 69.6 % of their passes. Now here comes Mathew Stafford, who has thrown for 599 yards, completed 65% of his passes and has 7 TD throws to just 2 INT's. I see Detroit once again getting their points, while the struggling Minnesota will break out a bit giving us a solid play on the Over. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- The Over is 31-13 Since 1994 when the Road team covered by 30 or more last week.
Cincinnati/ San Francisco Under 41: The Niners bring the 2nd worst offense into this game as as they have averaged just 207 ypg so far. Just will never be a good passing NFL QB. He has hit 73% of his passes this year, but for just 303 yards. Their running game isn't much better, churning out just 79 ypg and 2.8 ypc on the young season. Just not gonna get it done in the NFL these days. The Bengal defense has not been that bad so far, ranking 9th in yards (301 ypg) and they allow just 107 ypg on the ground and 3.5 ypc. The Niner defense can be passed upon, but their run defense is tops in the league and that should put young Dalton in to 2nd and 3rd and long situations. He's not ready for alot of them. Both QB's are just not playmakers and both defenses have the are playing very well right now. We also note that the Under is 10-3 in Cincy's last 13 as a home favorite. I expect no more than 34 in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Miami +1.5 over CLEVELAND: Last year Miami went 6-2 on the road, compared to 1-7 at home, so after starting this year 0-2 at home, a road game may be just what they need. The weakness of this Miami defense is a passing defense that has allowed 362 ypg through the air this far, but that shouldn't hurt them here as they will be facing a Cleveland attack that is 25th in the league in passing (199.5 ypg). The Cleveland running game is 21st in the league and Miami hasn't done that bad vs the run, allowing 122 yards and 4.2 ypc. Cleveland ranks 2nd in passing defense, but games vs the Manning-less colts and the Bengals are not really a guage of how good they are. They were ranked 18th an passing defense last year. The Miami Passing game has improved and they come in rabnked 9th in yards (271 ypg) and 6th in yards per completion (12.9) and they should have good success vs a suspect Cleveland secondary. I look for Miami to get their first win here. KEY TRENDS-- Miami is 18-5 in their last 23 as a road dog, while Cleveland has lost their last 5 at home ATS.
1 UNIT PLAY
Jacksonville +3.5 over CAROLINA: The Panthers have been a surprise with their offense this year, but the Jags defense can slow it down enough, while Gabbert has a decent outing vs a bad Carolina defense. We also note that home teams off a cover but a SU loss as a dog vs an opponent off a road loss are just 4-27 ATS the last 10 years. Jags win a low scoring one.
Jack Jones
Detroit Lions -3
The Detroit Lions have something special going right now, and I'm going to back them Sunday because of it. The Lions have won 10 straight games dating back to last season. They won their final four games of 2010, went 4-0 in the preseason, and have opened their 2011 campaign 2-0 with victories over the Bucs and Chiefs.
That was the same Tampa Bay team that Minnesota could not put away at home last week. They lost 20-24 to the Bucs to drop to 0-2 on the season. So for this year, the Vikings are getting outgained 292.5 to 371.
Detroit is scoring 37.5 points per game on the season while averaging 421 total yards. The Lions have held their opponents to 11.5 points and 290 yards per contest. Not only is this team winning, but they have been dominant in the process.
The Lions are 14-3 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a win. Minnesota is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0. Roll with the Lions Sunday.
Nick Bogdanovich
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Cleveland Browns -2.5
The Dolphins have lost two home games to quality teams and are going down in class, but I think they run into a pretty good Browns squad, which will turn in a better home performance than it did in a Week 1 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. I like what I have seen from Browns quarterback Colt McCoy, and asking the Browns to basically win straight up at home doesn't seem like that big of a deal.
Bob Balfe
Cardinals -3.5 over Seahawks
When the season started I was looking at my depth charts and said to myself if Robert Gallery gets hurt this Seattle Offensive Line is going to be the worst line in football. Sure enough Gallery is out for today and they also will be missing their fullback. Tavaris Jackson is not good enough of a quarterback to work with this young offensive line and I see them playing just like they did last week against the Steelers. If Arizona puts up 6 points I think they win this game. The Cardinals have more talent on both sides of the ball and should win with ease today. Take Arizona
Joe Gavazzi
San Francisco +3
QB Smith, who is still learning the new offense under 1st year HC Harbaugh, takes to the road for the 1st time. This offense has scored 57 points despite averaging just 207.5 YPG. Plus 4 net TOs have been a big contributor. The rush defense has been a big help allowing just 55/2.5. For the Bengals, QB Dalton makes his 1st home start. There are 5 teams playing their 1st home game this week. The knee jerk reaction is to play on these teams. But that has turned a huge loss in recent years. Under HC Lewis, this team has a poor history as favorite posting records of 6-20 ATS and 2-12 ATS of late. They are just 1-8 ATS on this field recently. This is the only game this week which features a West Coast team traveling East to play a 10:00 AM body time game. This year these team are 0-3 SU, but 2-1 ATS. Nonetheless, the opinion favors the Niners in this based on the superior run defense and poor history of the Bengals in this role.
NY Giants +9
With QB Vick cleared to play as of this writing, linemaker has opened Dream Team as a 6- point favorite. He quickly got his wish with the public responding to the announcement that Vick would play by pushing the line up to Eagles -9. And why wouldn’t they. Philly has won and covered 6 straight in this series by 11 PPG. They rationalize that only Vicks absence was the reason for the Eagles losing the game in Atlanta last Sunday night. Yes, the offense is in high gear averaging 31 PPG and 426 YPG. But the rush defense has been a sieve allowing St. Louis and Atlanta to run for 146 RYPG on 5.3 YPR. Enter a Giants team who is getting healthier by the week but refuses to make excuses under 8th year HC Coughlin. They outrushed the Cards 119-59 in their MNF 28-16 win. It will be that ground game against the weak-link Eagles defensive front that keeps them competitive in this contest. NFC East divisional road dogs have been a profitable play in recent history and the Giants enter with a mark of 12-7 ATS overall in that role.
Miami +2.5
Here is another SOS game which features the 0-2 SU, ATS Dolphins against a Browns team who has split their first 2 meetings. But Cleveland was getting that split against the mediocre Bengals who beat them 27-17 on this field and a victory against restructuring Indy last week. Hardly much to recommend for a team that was 5-11 SU, ATS last year and has won only 15 games the last 3 plus years. In fact, they enter on a 2-8 ATS slide. Meanwhile, Miami was facing high-powered New England and Houston. As expected, their defensive numbers are poor across the board after facing these two offenses. But their restructured offense, which looks to play more in the open field, has been a success. They gained 488 vs. New England and ran for 153 against Houston. The 2 game average while running the ball is 126/5.2 while the Browns are allowing 124/4.2 overland. Cannot help but note Sparano’s dichotomous home/road pattern which finds the road team in his games L2plusY to be now 36-14 ATS including 15-4 ATS for Miami when installed as road underdog.
John Ryan
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
5* graded play on the Kansas City Chiefs as they take on the San Diego Chargers set to start at 4:05 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that the Chiefs will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 38-14 ATS for 73% winners since 1983. Play on road dogs or pick after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games and now facing an opponent after a loss by 10 or more points. KC is in disarray and have not played well in the first two weeks of the season. However, as we all know NFL stands for ?Not for Long? and I think KC will be very competitive against a Charger team that will come into this game thinking the game is already won. Note that KC is a solid 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. Turnovers were a big problem for SD last week and HC Turner is just 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse in all games he has coached since 1992. Look for KC to keep it to single digits.
Hollywood Sports
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After the Falcons (1-1) emotionally-charged win last Sunday night in the Michael Vick Bowl, they looked primed for a letdown when traveling to still-balmy Tampa Bay to play a division rival that they have defeated five straight times. The fourth quarter comeback was grueling for Atlanta in what was a very physical game. The Falcons have also failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as a small favorite of three points or less. Tampa Bay (1-1) has not played a good game yet after losing at home to Detroit and then traveling to Minnesota to steal a 24-20 win last Sunday. "Mr. 4th Quarter" Josh Freeman engineered another fourth quarter rally for the Bucs in this one despite seeing his club outgained by 73 yards and losing the first down battle by a 25-19 margin. Don't be surprised if Tampa Bay gets off to a fast start here and put the Falcons on the ropes. The Buccaneers have covered 5 of their last 6 games coming off a win. And they are an impressive 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games against fellow NFC competition. Last year, Atlanta was very fortunate to pull out five net close wins of eight points or less. This level of success in hotly contested games is not sustainably over the long run. The Falcons look ripe for the picking today by a motivated Tampa Bay team. Lay the points with the Buccaneers.
Vegas Experts
Baltimore Ravens at St. Louis Rams
The Ravens got caught in a classic letdown last week, losing outright at Tennessee, but the good news for Baltimore fans is they are typically a great bounce back team. In fact, they are a perfect 7-0 against the spread following a game where they were out gained by 200 or more yards. They are also 31-16 ATS off an ATS loss. The Rams are dealing with injuries and issues in the red zone.
Play on: Baltimore
Ben Burns
Royals @ White Sox
PICK: Under 8.5
I followed up a 2-1 Friday with a 5-3 Saturday. One of yesterday's losers was the "under" 8.5 runs in the KC/Chicago game. That was a bit of a tough loss, as the teams combined for only 13 hits, yet scored nine runs. It was still 5-3 until the bottom of the eighth, when the Sox tacked on a costly insurance run. In hindsight, feel I was probably just a day too early, as I expect a low-scoring contest this afternoon. Let's check it out.
Mendoza didn't fare too well in the big leagues when he got a chance in April of 2010. So, the Royals sent him to the minors. While down there, he was named the Pacific Coast League "Pitcher of the Year," after going 12-5 with a league-best 2.18 ERA for Omaha. Last week, back in the bigs for the first time in more than a year, he limited the Tigers to two runs through seven innings.
Admittedly, Floyd hasn't had that great a year. He can still finish with a winning record though, which should give him plenty of motivation here. He's got a solid 3.00 ERA in six games (five starts) vs. KC at U.S. Cellular Field. In his last home start against the Royals, he allowed only one run through 7 2/3 innings, en route to earning a 5-1 victory.
This would have been an official ("guaranteed") play if the line had come out at nine instead of 8.5. However, even at 8.5, I feel we're getting fair value. Consider the Under
Scott Rickenbach
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers
PICK: San Diego Chargers -14
Though I normally don't like to lay big points in NFL match-ups, this is one case that commands being a potential exception. Similar to our big win right here in this spot with Pittsburgh last week, this appears to be a blowout waiting to happen! San Diego was nearly equal in yardage with the Patriots at New England last week but the Chargers were done in by four turnovers. San Diego now will take advantage of facing a Kansas City team that is off to a horrific start this season and that should be crushed again this week. The Chiefs have lost their first two games this season by a combined score of 89-10. Kansas City's offense has been horrific and the Chiefs also have turned over the ball nine times already this season. Keep in mind the Chargers only gave up 187 yards in week one of this season and they are capable of dominating again here. This is Kansas City's first divisional game this season and they went 3-9 ATS combined the last two seasons. As for the Chargers, they were #1 statistically last season in both overall offense and defensive categories. The issue was turnovers but, this week, they face a team that is having even more issues in that department then them. That spells blowout here and Kansas City doesn't travel well and is depressed beyond belief after their horrific start to the season! Note that the Chiefs are averaging 240 yards of offense so far this season and they now face a fired up Chargers defense and a San Diego offense that will be ready to explode at home!
Dave Price
1 Unit on Jacksonville Jaguars +4
Feel odds makers are jumping the gun here in showing last season's worst NFL team this much respect this soon. Consider that plays against home teams (CAROLINA) off a cover where they lost SU as an underdog, provided they're matched up against an opponent off a road loss, are 27-4 ATS the last 10 seasons. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the Jags.
Black Widow
1* Carolina Panthers -3
We'll side with the Carolina Panthers Sunday as they get their first win of the season at home against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. Carolina easily could be 2-0 right now had a few breaks gone their way. They lost 21-28 at Arizona after blowing a 21-14 lead in the fourth quarter, which included an 89-yard punt return TD. The Panthers jumped out to a 13-0 lead against Green Bay, only to fall 23-30. Cam Newton has been nothing short of spectacular, leading a Carolina offense that is averaging 403 passing yards and 476 total yards through two games. Carolina is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. They are winning in this spot by an average score of 28.7 to 16.0. Jacksonville's offense has been atrocious, putting up just 9.5 points and 263 total yards/game through two contests. The Jaguars are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. There's no question that after watching both teams the first two weeks, Carolina is the superior squad and it will show at home Sunday. Take the Panthers and lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Tennessee Titans -7
Tennessee dominated the Ravens at home last week, and I like its chances here against a Denver team it will be looking to payback for last year's loss. The Titans should be able to run all over a Denver defense that ranks 28th in the league with 131 rushing yards allowed per game. The Broncos won last week but are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. They are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Lay the points.