Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 26,2010

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1* on Cincinnati Bengals -3
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The Carolina Panthers have been the worst team in the NFL thus far in our opinion. Getting the Cincinnati Bengals as only a 3-point favorite against the Panthers Sunday is an absolute steal. Carolina is scoring just 12.5 points/game and they've committed 8 turnovers offensively, which led to Jimmy Clausen getting the start this week. Just insterting Clausen isn't going to fix all of thier problems. Carolina is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons. Cincinnati responded with a huge win over the Ravens Sunday, and they are still the reigning AFC North champs. Plus, the Bengals got better in the offseason by bringing in Terrell Owens and drafting Jordan Shipley, each of who have made solid contributions already. The Bengals defense remains underrated, limiting Baltimore to just 10 points last week. It would take a complete letdown for the Bengals not to come away with a victory in this one, and we just don't see that happening. Take Cincinnati and lay the points.

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Lions vs. Vikings
Play: Over 42
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The Detroit Lions were supposed to be better this year. Instead, they are again losing games. While they are 0-2 straight up, they have covered the number twice. But, things just never seem to change for this team, especially on the road. They have now dropped their last 21 games on the road, and the defense takes center stage as the culprit. The Lions defense allowed 33.7 points per game on the road a year ago, so this should be the breakout week for the Vikings. Minnesota has scored just 19 points in two games but their average simply isn't going to stay there. And, getting the Lions at home is the recipe for a change. If Minnesota gets their expected 30+ here, it doesn't leave much scoring to be done by the Lions to push this one over the total. The Vikings managed a minimum of 27 points per game at home a year ago, and following an ATS loss the OVER has cashed in at 24-10-2 in their last 36. The Lions are 17-7 to the OVER when posted as a dog of 10.5 or more in their last 24. In their last ten games when allowing 28+ points, the Lions have gone OVER nine times. Under Brad Childress, this Vikings team is 20-10 OVER after an ATS loss and 10-2 OVER following a back-to-back ATS losses. This one goes OVER the total.

Johnny BanksFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers
Pick: Carolina Panthers +3.5
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Carolina comes into this game game an underdog at home against a Bengals team that has no business being favored on the road. Cincinnati was extremely lucky winning against the Ravens since the Ravens turned the ball over 4 times and the Bengals had no turnovers. The Bengals only won by 5 points despite the 4 Ravens turnovers. The Panthers start the season off 0-2 but this is a team with a lot of talent and they had too many mental mistakes to win last week turning the ball over 3 times. If the Panthers can limit turnovers to 1 in this game they will not only cover the spread but win by a touchdown. Carolina has covered the number in 4 of their last 5 games as a home underdog while the Bengals have only covered the number once in their last 11 games as a favorite.

Sean Higgs

Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -10½

Baltimore of a tough loss to the Bengals. Flacco picked off 4 times. Now, they have their home opener. Baltimore has beaten this Browns bunch by a combined score of 115-40 the last 4 times they have played.

Jeff HochmanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: San Francisco 49ers -2½
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You will hear people say that the 49's will lose this game because they are coming off a short week, having played on MNF. Don't belive that hype! The 49's can not afford to start 0-3, and don't forget this team has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. Kansas City has won both games with smoke and mirrors. The odds-makers installing SF as opening line favorites is very telling. Look for Patrick Willis to play another great game on defense and for Alex Smith to have another "breakout" game on offense. Only this time he will be on the winning side.

Vernon CroyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Minnesota Vikings -10½
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This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the Vikings despite starting out 0-2 have been very unlucky in both games. If you study the Vikings games closely you will see that they should actually be 2-0 to start the season. The Vikings will put up big numbers against this Detroit defense that has allowed an average of 27 points per game this season. The Lions will have a very hard time scoring against this stingy Vikings defense that has only allowed an average of 14 points per game this season and an average of just 267 total yards per game. The lions are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against an NFC North opponent and they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in week 3 of the season. The Lions are just 2-6-2 against the spread in their last 10 games played against Minnesota and they lost both games last season against the Vikings by 17 points and 14 points. The Lions will get a hungry Vikings team that is still one of the best teams in the NFL and the Vikings will look to prove just that with a dominating win at home Sunday. Take Minnesota as my free NFL Pick for week 3 as they win by at least 21 points if no major injuries occur during the game.

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3* on Tennessee Titans
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Reasons the Titans cover:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) - off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. This is a 42-12 ATS System hitting 77.8% since 1983. The Titans are 33-15 ATS in their last 48 games against non-conference foes.
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2.) The Giants have many issues, and players are even starting to question the coaching staff. They were lucky to beat Carolina in Week 1 in a 31-18 victory, with the Panthers turning the ball over 5 times. Their true colors came through last week in a 14-38 loss at Indianapolis. Tennessee gave Pittsburgh the game last week by committing 7 turnovers, yet they still had a chance to tie the game in the closing seconds. It's clear to us that the Titans are the better team this year, and we'll take them showing nice value as an underdog Sunday. Bet the Titans on the road.

Dennis MacklinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Browns vs. Ravens
Play: Under 37
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The Ravens are going to be red-assed after allowing just 24 points and just 429 combined yards in two games and coming away just 1-1. The Browns aren't much, in fact their offense is close to non-existent but they do play defense (17, 16) and it hasn't taken much to slam the brakes on Flacco & Co to this point. This has 16-13, 20-9, 17-10 written all over it. Play the Under.

David ChanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars
PICK: Philadelphia Eagles -3
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Michael Vick is back to being top dog again.
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Sorry that was a bad pun. But I'm not sorry for backing the Eagles and Vick in this matchup.
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Andy Reid didn't handle the Kevin Kolb-Vick quarterback controversy very well, but he did make the right decision naming Vick as his starter. Vick has been excellent in six quarters this season. His great mobility covers up a lot of the Eagles' offensive line vulnerability.
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Vick is playing at a high level and should get even better as he shakes off the rust from having hardly played during the past three years. Some defenses will confuse Vick, but Jacksonville's soft, vanilla defense isn't one of them.
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The Jaguars don't generate a pass rush and have a slow and unathletic secondary. Defenses have had to key on Vick's running, which has opened up lanes for LeSean McCoy. He's responded with four touchdowns and a 6.7 yard per run average.
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The Jacksonville players stopped responding to Jack Del Rio last year. The Jaguars are 1-5 in their last six games both straight-up and against the spread. They are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games during the past three years. They have perhaps the least amount of crowd support in the league.
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The Jaguars rely on tailback Maurice Jones-Drew to spark their offense since their passing game is below average. Jones-Drew, though, has lacked his usual burst due to a preseason knee injury. He has not looked good this season averaging 3.7 yards per carry.
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The Eagles' run defense should be much better this week with the anticipated return of middle linebacker Stewart Bradley.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
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Lions @ Vikings
PICK: Under 42
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For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":
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The Lions saw the total go "under" the number in Week 1, losing 19-14 in Chicago; they saw it go "over" the number last week, losing 35-32 at home to the Eagles.
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Detroit is 0-2; it's not too far a stretch though to imagine this team actually sitting at 2-0 to start the season, if only it could have gotten a couple of lucky bounces or calls here or there.
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Shoulda, coulda, woulda.
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As good as the Lions looked in Week 1 on the defensive side of the ball was a horrible as they looked last week to the depleted Eagles.
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Detroit looked sharp in Week 1 in shutting down the run, and will look to return to form this time around against the dangerous Adrian Peterson.
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However, Detroit faces a rattled Vikings team that has struggled to score, and I look for that fact to give a confidence boost to the Lions here, especially on the defensive side, as they refuse to be intimidated.
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It's interesting to note, that dating back to last season, the Lions have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in 4 of their last 5 on the road; also in 8 of 13 vs. division opponents over the last two seasons.
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On the other side of the field: Well…it's finally happened. The "'Ol Gunslinger" is showing his age; the Vikings saw the total go "under" the number in Week 1, losing 14-9 to the Saints on the road; they lost 14-10 to the Dolphins in Week 2, the total also staying well below the posted number.
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I guess the argument could be made that Favre hasn't actually "lost a step", but is suffering from not having played a full pre-season.
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Whichever way you look at it, the fact remains, Minnesota is 0-2; and this after being considered one of the favorites to win the NFC.
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"Everybody knows we're 0-2, there are 14 games left in the regular season," coach Brad Childress said. "With a staff that's stayed together here, we have good communication. We know what we need to work on and communication won't be an issue. It's just a matter of everybody taking that long journey and looking at what they need to do individually better offensively, defensively."
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Brett has thrown four INT's to just one TD pass; obviously though, the Vikes offensive issues can't entirely be put on Favre's aging shoulders; Minnesota has just four WR's at the moment and Percy Harvin has a hip injury which was scoped on Monday.
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The continued absence of Sidney Rice isn't helping matters either.
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Dating back to last season the Vikes have seen the total go "under" the number in 9 of their last 12 overall; also in 6 of their last 7 at the Metrodome.
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Bottom line: It has to be pointed out as well that in 5 of these teams last 6 vs. each other, regardless of the location, the total has also gone "under" the number.
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There is considerable public money on the "over" according to the books, which makes this play an even sharper investment.

In a game where both teams are struggling for their first win of the season, I look for the defenses to take center stage here; consider a second look at the UNDER in this situation.

James Patrick SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indianapolis vs. Denver
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Josh McDaniels’ first season as head coach at Denver was filled with ups and downs, as the Broncos got off to a 6-0 start only to lose eight of their last 10 games, missing the postseason. The early season schedule is tough, so don’t expect as fast a start as last year. With a dozen or more victories nine years running, it is no surprise to find the Colts installed as the pre-season favorite Super Bowl favorites.In Jim Caldwell’s first season as head coach in Indianapolis, the Colts, despite injuries to key players on both sides of scrimmage, went to their second Super Bowl in four years and finished a decade that saw them go 115-45. In Sunday NFL action Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection is Indianapolis Colts as the Broncos can't score with Indy, even on their home field.

Doug Williams

Atlanta Falcons +3.5 at New Orleans Saints -3.5
The NFC’s top teams do battle this weekend as the Atlanta Falcons head to New Orleans to face the New Orleans Saints. Atlanta easily covered the -7 point spread against the Arizona Cardinals. New Orleans followed up a close win over Minnesota on the opening day of the NFL season with another close win Monday night, this time on the road against San Francisco to go 0-2 ATS. I think they will easily cover the 3.5 at home in this matchup. Pick: NO to Cover the -3.5

New York Jets +2 at Miami Dolphins -2
The first game for the Dolphins at home this season, and the Jets are hitting the road for the first time. I think the Dolphins are still underrated, even after they beat the Vikings on their home field last week. However, in their last action, New York was a 28-14 winner at home against the Patriots. They covered the 3 point spread as underdogs. This will be a close one, hense the 2 point spread. The Dolphins listed as 2-point favorites versus the Jets and I think that they'll cover that. Pick: Miami to Cover the -2

Detroit Lions +11.5 at Minnesota Vikings -11.5
The Vikings are listed as -11.5 point favorites versus the Lions, that is a huge line. Last week Detroit covered the 6.5 point spread as underdogs against the Eagles, so we know they're not as bad as their reputation. Minnesota will win this, but not by that margin, so get on Detroit to Cover this before the line moves. Pick: Detroit to Cover the +11.5

San Diego Chargers -5.5 at Seattle Seahawks +5.5
The Chargers covered the 7 point spread as favorites 38-13 in their most recent outing at home against the Jaguars. Seattle was a 31-14 loser on the road against the Broncos. This was opposite fortunes for both sides in comparison to week 1. This week I think the Chargers are going to bounce back and pummel the Seahawks at Qwest Field. Pick: San Diego to Cover the -5.5

POINTWISE

CAROLINA over Cincinnati RATING: 2
DALLAS over Houston RATING: 3
ATLANTA over New Orleans RATING: 4
SEATTLE over San Diego RATING: 5
TENNESSEE over New York Giants RATING: 5

NELLY'S

RATING 5 ARIZONA (-4) over Oakland
RATING 4 DALLAS (+3) over Houston
RATING 3 NEW ENGLAND (-13) over Buffalo
RATING 2 MINNESOTA (-10) over Detroit
RATING 1 JACKSONVILLE (+3) over Philadelphia

GOLD SHEET

NEW ENGLAND by 24 over Buffalo
SEATTLE by 5 over San Diego
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Arizona-Oakland game

GOLD SHEET EXTRA

ST LOUIS RAMS

St. Louis is getting closer to notching its first win of 2010, losing its first two games by only six points total. And we are not afraid to buck Washington when it invades the Edward Jones Dome on Sunday, especially considering its poor recent chalk marks (1-4 last season, 6-13 since 2007, and no covers the last thee vs. the Rams). Moreover, new Skins HC Mike Shanahan was a big underachiever as chalk in his recent years at Denver, dropping 16 of his last 19 as a favorite with the Broncos.

CKO

10 *BALTIMORE over Cleveland

You generally need extra reasons before laying double digits in an NFL game. And this contest provides those reasons. Not only have the Ravens slammed the Browns to the tune of 115-40 in winning and covering the last four meetings, but Baltimore also needs to “check itself” after generating only two TDs and 20 total points in its first two games. Moreover,QB Joe Flacco can be expected to pay extra attention to detail after his four interceptions in last week’s 15-10 loss in Cincinnati. This will be the home debut for new, reliable Raven WRs Anquan Boldin & T.J. Houshmandzadeh. And TE Todd Heap appears to be healthy and in excellent form with 10 recs. in the first two games. Ray Rice gives the hosts a big rushing edge over Cleveland’s sub-par RB crew. HC John Harbaugh is 11-5 vs. the spread his first two years at home.

NINE-RATED GAMES: ...CINCINNATI (-31⁄2) at Carolina (NFL)—Bengals have been a terrible favorite, but with Jimmy Clausen starting for Panthers, just do the math: 1st-yr QBs = TOs...SAN FRANCISCO (Pick ‘em; estimated) over Kansas City—K.C. is rolling, but Niners have the power running and nasty defense that will give Chiefs problems; like S.F. even more if off loss on Monday night to New Orleans.

TOTALS: UNDER (461⁄2) in the Dallas-Houston Game—Dallas still trying to get things together on offense; defense still rugged...UNDER in the Green Bay- Chicago Game (Monday Night)—With RB Ryan Grant gone, Bears find it easier to keep Aaron Rodgers under control; Pack’s Clay Matthews going “nuts” with six sacks in two games.

PLAYBOOK

3* Steelers
4* 49ers
5* Jets

3* Chiefs Over
4* Rams Under
5* panthers Under

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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Prediction: Buffalo Bills
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Life in Foxboro is anything but heavenly these days. Whether it’s because Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have run their course, or that Randy Moss wants out, all is not well in New England. The Pats’ 2nd-half lay down against the Jets last week was evidence of the fact. To make matters worse, they’ve been installed as double-digit chalk this week, a role they’ve failed miserably in of late (2-11 ATS last 13 tries). The Bills have problems of their own, namely a lack of offense while making adjustments to new head coach Chan Gailey. Still, Buffalo has bagged the cash eight of the last 10 times as September dogs off a loss and our database reminds us that Game Three dogs of more than 12 points are 10-3-1 ATS when checking in 0-2 SU and ATS on the season. Bottom line: we’ve seen enough of the long-in-the tooth Patriots to even remotely consider laying doubles with this punch-less bunch. Grab the points in this overlay. We recommend a 1-unit play on Buffalo.