RANDALL THE HANDLE
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BEST BETS
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Titans (1-1) @ Giants (1-1)
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It was no shock to see the Titans go down to the ferocious Steelers last week. Tennessee now gets a much softer foe and we expect them to take full advantage. The league’s top running back, Chris Johnson, was held to less than 100 yards for the first in 13 games and a big bounce back here would not surprise. The Giants defensive deficiency were clearly exposed last Sunday against the Colts and while Tennessee is a lesser threat, it is still quite capable of revealing New York’s defensive ineptitude. New York’s team chemistry also in question, with players dissatisfied with coaching philosophies. TAKING: Tennessee +3 Pinnacle
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Raiders (1-1) @ Cardinals (1-1)
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Granted, this is not Kurt Warner throwing to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. However, it is the Raiders in town for a visit. While the Cards are not the same team that had some success these past couple of years, they still possess more weapons than this punchless visitor. It only took two games for there to be a quarterback controversy in Oakland. This isn’t a case of which QB is better, it’s more like which of Jason Campbell and Bruce Gradkowski is worse. The Raiders narrowly defeated the woeful Rams before traveling here and they arrive with a depleted line-up while facing an Arizona team playing its home opener. TAKING: Arizona –4 Pinnacle
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Falcons (1-1) @ Saints (2-0)
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Even though this is a divisional matchup for the Saints against the team that is most likely to give them a run for the NFC South, we could catch the host in a letdown spot. New Orleans’ past three games have been last year’s Super Bowl, the Thursday night season opener and last week’s Monday night feature game. Now the champs are being asked to play on a short week after all that fanfare and will have to do it for the first time without multi-faceted RB Reggie Bush in the lineup. The Falcons have the talent and familiarity to stay close to this foe, with an upset being a distinct possibility. TAKING: Atlanta +4 Pinnacle
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THE REST
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Bills (0-2) @ Patriots (1-1)
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Replacing Trent Edwards with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, is like replacing a headlight on a clunker and expecting it to run better. Still, oddsmakers tend to inflate Patriot lines while being overly generous to Bills backers. TAKING: Buffalo +14
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Browns (0-2) at Ravens (2-0)
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Baltimore too talented to have scored a mere 20 points in its first two games. Ravens return home after splitting first two games away and not allowing a touchdown in the process. Facing an inept Cleveland team that they defeated twice last year by a combined 50-3, has blowout written all over it. TAKING: Baltimore –10 ½
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Steelers (2-0) @ Tampa Bay (2-0)
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This is why we adore the NFL. The Steelers were supposed to struggle without suspended QB Ben Roethlisberger while the Bucs were simply supposed to struggle. Now, both are undefeated and Pittsburgh will likely lose to a team they are expected to defeat. Gotta love it! TAKING: Tampa Bay +2
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Bengals (1-1) at Panthers (0-2)
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On the surface, it would be easy to endorse the Bengals over this far inferior feline. However, Cincinnati cannot be trusted as a favourite, having failed as chalk in all eight attempts last year. In addition, the Bengals could get caught napping after knocking off Ravens last week. TAKING: Carolina +3
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49ers (0-2) at Chiefs (2-0)
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Arrowhead is never an easy place to win but we’d rather have a desperate 49ers squad that has played decently but has hurt itself with costly errors than an overachieving Kansas City bunch that is undefeated despite some very mediocre play. TAKING: San Francisco –2 ½
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Lions (0-2) at Vikings (0-2)
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Lions may be the darlings of the betting public with consecutive covers but this is still the same Detroit group that has one victory in past 28 away games. Minnesota in dire need of a convincing win and this is type that No. 4 enjoys beating up on. TAKING: Minnesota –11
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Cowboys (0-2) @ Texans (2-0)
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Texans off to great start but could be spent after winning opener over nemesis Indy and then making enormous comeback in overtime win in Washington. If the Skins could pass for 400+ against Houston’s secondary, they door is open for potent Dallas passing attack. TAKING: Dallas +3
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Redskins (1-1) @ Rams (0-2)
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Turning it around takes time but St. Louis showing signs of life despite going winless thus far. Skins bring out the best in Rams as St. Louis lost 9-7 last year and upset Washington 19-17 in 2008. Host has held opponents to 33 points while Redskins dead last in yards allowed. TAKING: St. Louis +3 ½
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Eagles (1-1) @ Jaguars (1-1)
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There’s something rotten in the state of Pennsylvania. Eagles coach Andy Reid declares Kevin Kolb as his starter on Monday and then does a complete 180 on Wednesday, anointing Michael Vick as starter for rest of season. This reeks of management meddling and in this league, that’s never good. TAKING: JACKSONVILLE +3
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Colts (1-1) @ Broncos (1-1)
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Not the best matchup for the Colts here as they face a team that is proficient at stopping the pass while the Broncos grinding offensive pace can keep Indy’s potent unit off the field. Denver may have found a Brandon Marshall replacement in youngster Demaryius Thomas. TAKING: DENVER +5 ½
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Chargers (1-1) @ Seahawks (1-1)
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Neither team can be trusted but prefer Seahawks on own turf with new head coach implementing a renewed enthusiasm with previously dull squad. Chargers have off field issues plus injuries to starting running back and wide receiver. TAKING: SEATTLE +5 ½
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Jets @ Dolphins
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Not a favorable situation for the Jets who are traveling for first time and will visit a Miami group that is home for its first time this season. New York, who has already lost nose tackle Kris Jenkins, will now be without top CB Darrelle Revis. TAKING: MIAMI –2
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Packers (2-0) @ Bears (2-0)
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Packers won both meetings last year but both were closely contested. We’ve seen the danger in spotting road points within division and with amped up Monday night crowd on hand and the Bears playing with confidence, receiving these points is the prudent play. TAKING: CHICAGO +3
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ARIZONA –4 over Oakland
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The Oakland Raiders weren’t confident or content with Bruce Gradkowski as its starter so they went out and signed Jason Campbell in the off-season. That lasted 1½-games, as Campbell was benched last week and will be this week’s backup. Incidentally, the Raiders were winning when he was benched and that makes the move even more puzzling. Or does it? The Raiders are still the same team they’ve been for years, that being a disorganized, limited talented group that has no identity or direction. They were smoked in the first week of the season in Tennessee and were fortunate to escape the Rams last week. The Cardinals stock is way down after a blowout at the hands of the Falcons last week but that was an extremely tough spot for them, as they had to travel cross-country for the second week in a row to open the season. Now they’ll open at home and they couldn’t have handpicked a riper opponent. The Cards lost some key personnel in the off-season but they still have some very skilled players, a well prepared coach and after getting whacked last week, they’ll show up big time here. When your surrounded by turbulence, as the Raiders are and have been for years, it takes away focus and in this league if you’re not 100% focused, you’re not going to win and frankly, this is a very beatable number against a team and QB that has proven nothing in five years and counting. Play: Arizona –4 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
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BALTIMORE –10½ over Cleveland
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The Ravens are coming off two games in which they scored a combined 20 points. That has resulted in the Ravens being somewhat overlooked as a power in this league. However, both of those games came against two of the best defensive squads in the business, the Jets and Bengals, and they were also both on the road. Now the Ravens will open at home and they take a gigantic step down in class. Make no mistake, the Ravens are loaded on both sides of the ball with outstanding offensive players and a QB that is more than capable of moving the chains and putting up great numbers. This isn’t the Jets or Bengals they’ll be playing here. Cleveland is 0-2 after playing the Bucs and Chiefs, not exactly the cream of the crop. They had trouble scoring points against that duo and one has to wonder how they’ll score points here. Against the Chiefs last week, the Brownies racked up a pathetic 55 yards in the second half. Joe Flacco has taken some heat over the last week because the Ravens aren’t scoring but pay no attention to an overstating media that blows everything out of proportion. Flacco is good and the Ravens defense is fierce. Expect it all to come together here, in this, the Ravens home opener in what should be an easy win from start to finish. Play: Baltimore –10½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
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Atlanta +1.71 over NEW ORLEANS
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Speaking of overlooked teams and one need not look further than these Dirty Birds. Man, is this team loaded and while a home game is always better than a road game, they catch the Saints in perhaps its most vulnerable home game of the season. The Saints celebrated its Super Bowl win all summer long. They kicked off the 2010 NFL season at home vs the Vikes on a Thursday night in a nationally televised game and they followed that up with a Monday Night game in San Fran last week. They’re 2-0 and they’re lucky they’re not 0-2. They beat the Vikes 14-9 and they were dominated last Monday in a three-point win in San Fran in which the 49ers moved the ball at will all game but four turnovers did them in. Now they’ll have 1½-days less to prepare than the Falcons and they’ll have to devise a game plan minus Reggie Bush. That’s tough and so is this opponent. The Falcons are among the elite. They had a tough opening week loss to the Steelers but barely broke a sweat last week in its crushing win over the Cards. Matt Ryan is about as level headed and composed as any QB in the league. The Falcons have two dangerous backs in Michael Turner and Jason Snelling, with the latter racking up 186 yards last week after Turner was injured. Its defense is a whole lot better than it was a year ago after they signed shutdown corner Dunta Robinson to a hefty free-agent contract. We all saw Frank Gore rip up the Saints run defense last week and you can expect to see more of that here. After a short week and after not looking particular sharp for two weeks now, not to mention two games in the National spotlight, the Saints are very fortunate to be 2-0 and if their bubble is going to burst, this looks like the perfect spot for that to occur. Take the points if you like. We’re calling the Falcons outright. Play: Atlanta +1.71 (Risking 2 units).
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ST. LOUIS +4 over Washington
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The Redskins are 1-1 while the Rams 0-2 and St. Louis is also something like 1-20 over the past two years. Washington has had two games against what is considered two quality opponents in Dallas and Houston but final scores don’t tell the whole story. The Skins are now being perceived as a decent team when in fact they’re not. They have very few skilled players, they have plenty of aging players that are way past their prime, they have a drill-sergeant coach and that style of coaching just doesn’t work any more. And if you think the Skins are a happy and coherent bunch, you’re dead wrong. DeAngelo Hall declared that he would cover the opposing team’s top receiver every week - no matter what the coaches say. Albert Haynesworth can’t stand the new 3-4 defensive schemes that new defensive coordinator Jim Haslett has instilled. Incidentally, Haslett went 2-10 as interim coach for St. Louis in 2008 and he’s not smart enough to change it up. The Rams know exactly what to expect. The offense is also in trouble. They can’t run the ball with Clinton Porter, another one of those aforementioned aging and useless players and as a result of that poor offense, the defense has been on the field way too much. That defense has allowed a league worst 453 yards per game. Now, the Rams aren’t the 1962 Packers but they’ve shown a strong effort in both games, albeit against two non-playoff teams. Despite two losses, the Rams are motivated and they’re on the verge of a win. The Rams are going in the right direction and Sam Bradford is only going to get better as he gains more experience. The Skins are coming off two very intense games that both went right down to the wire and now they catch what they believe is a soft opponent. With all due respect to the Raiders, Brownies, Lions and a couple others, there’s not a team in the league that is a bigger risk laying road points than these complete imposters from D.C. Rams outright but in this case we’ll take the points. Play: St. Louis +4 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
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Oakland Raiders vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Oakland Raiders +4.5
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Oakland has a bit of a quarterback Controversy as Campbell isn't getting the job done, but they Raiders are coming off a win last week. Arizona is 1-1 with a win over St. Louis in their first game, but got creamed at Atlanta last week 41-7. They are playing their first game at home of the season and need a win and have the Raiders to play. Look for a close low scoring game with the Raiders keeping it close if not pulling it out in the end. Play Oakland
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PICK: Under 39.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona’s offense is a mess right now. The Cardinals are breaking in a new QB, Derek Anderson, behind a rebuilt offensive line. They’ve scored 24 points in two games. Anderson has been throwing into traffic, missing open receivers and not hitting guys in stride so they can make plays downfield. There’s clearly no chemistry between the quarterback and his receiving corps. Tim Hightower had an 80 yard TD run against Atlanta last Sunday, but the other dozen running back carries produced just 38 total yards.
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Arizona needs to run the football and they spent the offseason working on their running game. After last weeks three turnover performance, with Beanie Wells expected to suit up for the first time all year, look for a steady diet of runs between the tackles from the Cardinals on Sunday. That’s exactly what Under bettors look for. It’s also worth noting that the high flying Kurt Warner led offense from last year was an Under machine at home, cashing six Unders in eight tries.
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Oakland has a strong Under trend on the road, corresponding with the Cardinals run of Unders at home. The Raiders scored a grand total of 105 points in their eight road games last year, barely averaging 13 points per game. They’ve scored only 29 points through the first two weeks of this season, and made the change to weak-armed Bruce Gradkowski at QB this week, negating the tremendous big play speed from their receiving corps.
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Darren McFadden carried the ball 30 times last week, as the Raiders chose to grind it out on the ground. This week, they’ll have RB Michael Bush healthy for the first time all year – we can expect another steady diet of smashmouth running plays here. Put it all together and this has all the makings of a grind it out slugfest, staying well Under the total. 2* Take the Under.
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Tennessee Titans vs. New York Giants
Play: Tennessee Titans +3
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The Titans have advantages on both line of scrimmages. Their OL should bring power and force their will on the overrated DL of the Giants. RB C.Johnson will get his after last weeks' weak out put.
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The Giants OL is very problematic. Proving so far that they are struggling in pass protection and running the ball. The Titans defense is very physical and will get pressure without the help of blitzing. Forcing QB E.Manning into mistakes. He was pressured all game last week vs Indy, and we should see the same here.
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QB V.Young was benched last week. I fully expect to see him use his legs more and frustrate the Giants defense.
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Were backing the more physical club on both sides of the ball. Take the points and expect an outright win.
Power Sweep
4* Washington over ST LOUIS - This is the 5th meeting in 6 years with the Rams covering 3 straight with 2 outright upsets. LY The Redskins beat STL 9-7 but failed to cover as a 9.5 pt HF in the 2nd week. WAS had 4 drives of 60+ yds but settled for 3 FG’s with a 362-245 yd edge. LW WAS blew a 20-7 1H lead and found themselves in a shoot out where including OT they were outgained 328-172 the rest of the way. WAS first 2 drives got the HOU 23 but they settled for FG’s and in the 4Q they had a 29 yd FG blocked. This will be the 3rd straight team STL faces that is starting a new QB and offensive scheme vs 2009. This has enabled STL to keep it respectable as ARZ took a step down with Anderson who had little support from the run game. LW OAK changed its starting Ctr after 1 game and was also without LG Gallery. While STL gave up 173 yds (4.3) rushing they were able to rattle Campbell and force him out of the game. Now they face a team that has definitively upgraded at QB with McNabb (426 yds 74% 1-0 LW). STL will also face their former DC Jim Haslett who was passed over of the HC job after going 2-10 as an interim HC in 2008. Look for a sharp effort out of WAS’s defense vs a young QB on a team with a poor home edge (9-21 ATS at home). The fact that AF’s off a home OT loss are 11-0-1 ATS since 2003 is a bonus here. FORECAST: Washington 27 ST LOUIS 10
3* Pittsburgh over TAMPA BAY - Clearly the key to the 2010 Steelers until Roethlisberger gets back is their defense which has been outstanding in the first 2 games. PIT overcame a 238-127 yd deficit thanks to a 89 yd KR to open the game and forced 7 TO’s for 12 pts. PIT’s run defense has been relentless holding ATL’s Turner to 42 yds (2.2) and snapped Johnson’s 12 game streak of 100 yds with 34 yds (2.1). TB is a surprising 2-0 to start the season despite an NFL low $80.8 million roster. TB QB Freeman looked good again LW with 178 yds and 2 TD’s but that was vs a defense with 6 new starters. He has 6 games of 52% or less completion in 12 starts and now faces one of the elite defenses in the NFL. The Bucs do have a top tier special teams unit which has been known to give PIT problems in the past. Look for PIT to resign Leftwich quickly as not only does he have a chance to start here, his experience with TB LY mentoring Freeman will help the Steelers as they secure their 3rd win of the year. FORECAST: Pittsburgh 17 TAMPA BAY 6
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* Cincinnati over CAROLINA - After getting thumped by NE in the opener and facing a tough fightvs BAL, CIN is in a down spot here with their 3rd road game in 4 Wks with CLE on deck. CIN is only 1-7 ATS as an AF while CAR is 4-1 ATS as a HD. After a confidence boosting 2H vs NE the Bengals got into the win column with by pressuring Flacco into 4 int’s. CIN turned those into 6 pts in a defensive struggle which turned out to be the difference maker. They now take on a defense with 6 new starters that is trying to get its bearings. CAR’s issues have been compounded by poor play at QB (183 yds 42% with a 2-5 ratio). Clausen maybe named the starter sooner than later. Fox is trying to use RB’s Williams and Stewart who have 171 rush yds together (3.7) to keep the games close and steal a win. CIN however has the RB in Benson to match CAR’s power run game, a vastly more sound QB position with a deep receiving unit that will only get better as the season rolls on. FORECAST: Cincinnati 27 CAROLINA 13
2* JACKSONVILLE over Philadelphia - The Eagles had an ideal foe for Vick to make his 1st career start vs a soft defense in a controlled environment on a fast surface. Vick threw for 284 yds (62%) with a 2-0 ratio. The Eagles may have lost their best OL with LT Peters (knee) in addition to Ctr Jackson LW and the protection struggled allowing 6 sacks. JAX’s inability to draw fans has crippled their homefield advantage and while they were 4-13 ATS the L/2Y they did take care of business at home in the opener. They also have the added edges of catching PHI in a 2nd straight road game and have a full game of tape on Vick. LW JAX had the misfortune off catching SD off a MNF div loss and it translated into a 38-13 beating. QB Garrard imploded with 4 int’s after having none in the opener and McCown (120, 58%) got some reps. JAX got taken out of their offense LW as Jones-Drew had 31 yds (2.6). Now they face a PHI defense that has allowed 124 rush ypg (4.2) the rush attack will again flourish and take some heat off the QB position. FORECAST: JACKSONVILLE (+) 24 Philadelphia 20
Red Sheet
San Francisco 27 - KANSAS CITY 13 - (1:00) -- Line opened as Pick-em, and is now SanFrancisco minus 2. If anyone doubted the resurgence of the Niners, with their opening week stinker at Seattle, they were emphatically erased with their Monday Night showing vs the Super Bowl champion Saints. A loss on the final play is a killer, & a Monday team taking to the road the following week, is normally a "go-against". But feeling is that QB Smith came into his own in that game (23-of-32 for 275 yds, in leading the Niners to a 417-287 yd edge, as well as a 24-17 FD advantage. Chiefs doing it with smoke & mirrors.RATING: SAN FRANCISCO 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): -- NFL: Carolina, Seattle, Green Bay
PlayBook
5* BEST BET NY Jets over MIAMI by 13
The 3rd of three losing teams last year that have opened up 2-0 in2010, the Dolphins return home off a pair of road victories to host their hated division rivals, a team they’ve won and covered against in each of the last three meetings. So why is it the Fish are looking like dinner tonight? It may have to do with their 4-8 SU and 2-10 ATS mark as a host in this series. Or perhaps it’s the Jets’ 14-3 ATS mark as a division road dog in games in which they own a .500 or greater record, including 9-1 ATS when the Flyboys are off a win. The grill really heats up when noting that teams in Game Three playing at home after allowing 10 or less points in each of its fi rst two games are just 2-11 ATS if facing a .500 or greater opponent since 1986, including0-7 ATS when hosting a division rival. And we begin to fi llet with the Dolphins’ 1-15 ATS record at home in games off back-to-back SU and ATS wins when the last was straight up as an underdog. Bon appetit!
4* BEST BET San Francisco over KANSAS CITY by 13
Like the Bucs, the Chiefs are another 2-0 wonder that swam in a sea of losers last year. In fact, Todd Haley’s crew brought a 6-35 straight up log in its previous 41 games into the 2010 season. With that we went right to the machine and, lo and behold, here’s what we found: teams in Game Three off back-to-back straight up underdog wins that won fi ve or fewer games last season were just 1-5 SU and ATS, including 0-3 SU and ATS if they were a four or less win squad the previous campaign. While six games is not a large sample, the results speak for themselves. Mike Singletary’s troops, now 0-2 SU but 2-0 ITS, are 7-1 ATS in games versus foes off a non-division game, adding more fuel to the fi re. It’s not all that diffi cult fading a tribe that has won only three of its previous 19 games in its own tee-pee, going 0-10 SU and ATS in that span as a favorite or dog of less than four points. Niners continue to pan for gold and they fi nd it at Arrowhead.
3* BEST BET Pittsburgh over TAMPA BAY by 11
After winning just three of its previous 20 games in straight up fashion, the Bucs have opened the 2010 campaign with a pair of victories. Sure, they may have come against the Browns and Panthers (0-4 combined) but don’t tell Raheem Morris that. While you’re at it, don’t tell him that unrested 2-0 home teams in Game Three that won seven or fewer game last season are just 6-14 ATS, including 3-13 ATS as a favorite or dog of three or less points. With Morris just 1-6-1 ATS in games at Raymond James Stadium and the Bucs just 1-7 SU alltime in this series, look for the Steelers to improve to 5-0 SU and ATS in their last fi ve games against the NFC South. Oh, and that perfect record? Bye, bye Bucs.
Insider Angles
TENNESSEE at NY GIANTS
The Tennessee Titans and the New York Giants are both coming off of embarrassing losses, but the Titans have the superior defense and seem more likely to improve if they simply hold on to the ball, so Tennessee gets the underdog call here.
The Titans committed an unbelievable seven turnovers last week, and believe it or not, those were not their only miscues. They also had an 85-yard touchdown run by Chris Johnson called back due to a holding penalty, and they surrendered an 89 yard return for a touchdown on the opening kick-off. All of that, and they ended up losing only 19-11!
The Tennessee defense certainly played good enough to win the game, as they held the Steelers without an offensive touchdown, and they limited Pittsburgh to a microscopic 21 passing yards. In fact, the Steelers needed 33 carries to amass their 106 rushing yards, which grades out to only 3.2 yards per rush. This is obviously a game that Tennessee would have one without all the turnovers and other miscues, all of which were random and impossible to predict.
On the other hand, the beat-down the Giants suffered at the hands of the Colts in the Manning Bowl was more deserved. The G-Men allowed 410 total yards to Indianapolis while accumulating only 257 yards themselves, and they also allowed four sacks and countless hurries as Eli Manning was running for his life all game long. Perhaps most foreboding is the fact that they allowed Joseph Addai and Donald Brown to rush for a combined 161 yards on 36 carries.
Chris Johnson of the Titans should be in an ornery mood after seeing his 12-game 100-yard rushing streak snapped, a streak that would be at 13 games if not for the holding penalty on his long scamper last week. Thus, he may approach the 160 rushing yards the Colts’ Big Two gained all by himself. Meanwhile, when the Giants have the ball, if their offensive line duplicates last week’s performance, the great Tennessee defensive front should dominate the line of scrimmage.
Look for Tennessee to pull off the mini-upset on the road Sunday at New Meadowlands Stadium.
NFL Pick: Titans +3
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Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers
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There are several games this week that are as "lopsided-bet" as we'll see all season. The Carolina Panthers have just 10% of the bets, when you consider both spread bets and "teasers and parlays." With the public betting on the Cincinnati Bengals "like no tomorrow," we want to "bet against the public" and take the Panthers.
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The Panthers have been outscored 51-25, or an average of 13 points per game. However, they actually were handling the Giants well in Week 1, before the Giants pulled away at the end, with the final score making it look easier than it actually was. The Panthers, at 0-2, are not winning many fans. The Bengals, on the other hand, are coming off of huge win over a very tough Baltimore Raven team in Week 2.
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Interestingly, CRIS had an opening line of Cincy -3.5 for this game, but even with almost every bet taking Cincy, the line has ticked down to Cincy -3. That kind of "reverse line movement" is an indication of some big money more than balancing the action -- and taking Carolina to bounce back. We'll follow the big money and "buy low" -- by taking the Panthers after their slow start -- and "sell high" by betting against the Bengals after their big win last week. You can still grab the Panthers +3.5 at SIA and Bodog.
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Carolina Panthers +3.5
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Washington Redskins vs St. Louis Rams
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This game is the most "lopsided-bet" game on the board this week. Including teasers and parlays, the St. Louis Rams are gathering less than 10% of all bets! You would think that the Patriots, from their monster years, were playing against a junior high team!
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The betting percentages are surprising because neither team is a particular standout. Washington has been impressing NFL fans, but has outscored their opponents by just 40-37 in their two games. Although the Rams are 0-2, they have lost their two games by a combined 6 points! Many consider the Rams one of the worst teams in the league, and this is potentially the reason for the overwhelming number of bets on the Redskins.
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CRIS opened at Washington -5, and even with all the bets landing on Washington, the line has moved all the way down to Washington -3.5 at most sportsbooks. You can still grab the extra 0.5 pt to get to the key number of 4 -- and go with the "big money."
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St Louis Rams +4
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Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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Both teams are 1-1, but Jacksonville got crushed by San Diego last week, 38-13. Fans notice these big losses and often overreact. Currently, about 80% of the bets are landing on the Eagles. Interestingly, again, there is an indication of "reverse line movement" in this game. Pinnacle opened this game at Eagles -3 and even with most bets landing on the Eagles, Pinnacle has moved to -2.5.
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We spoke with our contact at a large offshore sportsbook and he confirmed that some of his larger and "sharper" players have shown an interest in the Jaguars. Let's tag along with the "sharps" and grab the key number of +3 while we still can. It appears that this is the week of small home dogs; let's hope we get some good, live, dogs going this Sunday!
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Jacksonville Jaguars +3
Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs
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The Diamondbacks have enjoyed their time at home so far by winning four of five games on their current homestand. They'll wrap things up with the Dodgers on Sunday afternoon. Los Angeles’ offense has struggled mightily in the second half of the season. In their last 10 games, they've scored more than three runs just twice. Over that span, they've scored two runs twice and one run three times. Joe Saunders makes the start for Arizona. He has enjoyed pitching at home for the Diamondbacks. Over his last three home starts, he has given up five runs and 19 hits in 23 innings pitched. The lefty has yet to face Los Angeles this season, but he is familiar with them from his time with the Angels. Reed Johnson (3-13), Casey Blake (0-10), Matt Kemp (1-7), Andre Ethier (1-6), and Jay Gibbons (0-2) all have poor numbers against Saunders. Los Angeles has scored just three runs in their last three games against left-handed starters. They've lost three of five games and seven of their last 10 games overall. Chad Billingsley is 0-3 with a 5.19 ERA in his last three starts after giving up 10 runs and 18 hits over 17.1 innings of work. He's sporting a losing record on the road this season. The righty has faced the Diamondbacks four times this season. He's had two good outings against them and two disastrous starts. Stephen Drew (18-46), Chris Young (10-36), Kelly Johnson (5-19), Adam LaRoche (6-18), Miguel Montero (7-17), and Brandon Allen (2-6) hit Billingsley well. Arizona has scored five runs or more in three of their last four games, and since the Dodgers have apparently packed it in, we’ll recommend a play on Arizona this afternoon.
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Jacksonville+ over Philadelphia
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The Eagles, despite winning last week, have more holes than the streets of Philadelphia. Sure, the Birds went out and VICKED the Lions last week, but now the tempo changes with a team that will run the football down the throats of a mistake prone defense. Last week in the fourth quarter the defense was out of position on 77% of the offensive plays called by Detroit, i.e., the Lions back door cover. JAX shot themselves in the football last week 6 turnovers depleting any chance of securing a road win. Look for a reversal of form as the Jaguars chew on the Eagles issues.
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Titans vs. GiantsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 43FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Giants played a season of 12-4 Over-Under last season and have opened 2010 with 2-0 Over-Under. The franchise has a reputation for defense, which has been the big phony-baloney in this 16-6 OU stretch. This defense is a bunch of fraudulent whiners with no leader. It might improve as they get deeper into the season with their third different defensive coordinator in the last three seasons, but for now, anything new represents a huge challenge for them. The Titans, a non-conference visitor, are new. The Titans’ offense comes off a game against Pittsburgh, the kind of defense that when the going gets tough, the tough get going. The Giants? When the going gets tough, opposing offenses drive the field or make big plays. Eli Manning has matured to the point where he can at least give legitimate chase when the team falls behind, but fumble-sacks that lead to opposing scores are becoming a norm for this team, instead of the rare occurrence.
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CAR / CIN Under 38
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I expect a conservative gameplan from the already run-heavy Panthers with rookie Jimmy Clausen under center. Both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart should see plenty of carries. The Bengals offense has struggled (except for garbage time against the Patriots), so I expect them to continue to struggle on the road today against a Panthers defense that plays pretty well at home. The Under looks like a solid small action wager.
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Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
PICK: Minnesota Vikings -11.5
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The Lions are arguably the worst 2-0 ATS team in the league. They were totally outstatted by the Bears in Week One but got the "miracle" cover. In fact, they very nearly got the "miracle" win as they almost beat Chicago outright on a late TD. As for the Vikings, they are 0-2 but they lost to the super bowl champion Saints in the opener and then fell short against Miami in week two. Perhaps the Vikes underestimated the Dolphins and just thought they would come back home and roll them. In any event, the Vikings were upset at home.
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Now, after back to back losses to open the season, Minnesota is primed for a blowout win and the Lions are in the wrong place at the wrong time. It's a true blowout as the Lions won't rally for a cover again like they did in scoring 15 points in the final minutes versus Philly last week! As for the Vikings, they did outgain the Dolphins 364 to 226 last week but Minnesota was done in by four turnovers in that game. The Vikings allowed just 12 first downs last week while the Lions allowed twice as many, 24, first downs versus the Eagles last week. Consider a small play on Minnesota minus the big points early on Sunday afternoon.