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Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
PICK: Minnesota Vikings -11.5
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Minnesota is a desperate team right now that has started the season at 0-2 and needs to come through with a win today. The line may seem high for a winless team to be laying but I think there is actually a ton of value here. Last season at home Minnesota was favored by 17 points and while the Lions have improved since then, they have not improved that much.
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Detroit is also 0-2 on the season and it is a different 0-2. The Lions only lost by five points at Chicago in their opener but they were outgained by a whopping 295 total yards. Last week at home against Philadelphia, Detroit may have lost by just three points but it became that close after a huge rally late in the game that turned it from blowout to respectable.
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Minnesota outgained the Dolphins by 138 total yards last week so it played good enough to win but turnovers were the difference as one of the Dolphins touchdowns came by way of a recovered fumble. Brett Favre has thrown four interceptions and just one touchdown. These turnovers have stopped too many drives, which has been one of the reasons the Vikings are averaging just over nine ppg so far.
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On the other side, the Lions could be in for another long day. The Vikings have one of the most explosive pass rushes in the NFL, but they have struggled getting to the quarterback this year with just three sacks after two games. Not many teams can bring the pressure with their base front four like the Vikings with Jared Allen coming off one side and Ray Edwards coming off the other.
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Minnesota falls into a great situation based on the upcoming bye week and this is the first instance of it this season. Play on favorites of 6.5 to 15 points that have a bye the following week. This simple yet solid situation is 26-8 ATS (76.5 percent) since 2002 with the average score differential being +18.9 ppg. 3* Minnesota Vikings
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Oakland Raiders vs. Arizona Cardinals Oakland Raiders
Pick : Oakland Raiders +4.5
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No way should Arizona be this big of a favorite against the Raiders Sunday. This is the same Cardinals team that just lost 7-41 at Atlanta last week, giving up 221 rushing yards to the Falcons. Oakland has been one of the best running teams in the league to this point, putting up an average of 154 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. Look for Darren McFadden to have another big day on the ground for the Raiders.
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Oakland will start Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback this week, and he always seems to give his team a chance to win. Gradkowski came into the game last week at halftime as the Raiders trailed 7-3 at the break. He led them to 13 second half points, throwing for 162 yards and a touchdown in two quarters to help Oakland pull out a 16-14 win over St. Louis. The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. The Cardinals are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Bet Oakland Sunday.
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans
Play: Dallas Cowboys +115
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I have cashed in on the Texans early this year, but not today as this line has dropped and public bettors are loving the Texans based on their start, but the Cowboys need this game not only because they need some confidence, but they can't lose to the Texans. This line opened up at +3 and now moves to +2 despite nearly 60% of the public being on the Texans. this is the trap game of the day in my opinion. Dallas is inconsistent, but I think they come up with a huge game here. Romo needs to play a team he can pass on and the Texans give up tons of yards. Texas still belongs to the star on the helmet.
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1 Unit on Oakland Raiders +4.5
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Dating back to last season, the Raiders have been at their best when Bruce Gradkowski is under center. As tight end Zach Miller put it, "he finds ways to make plays. He has guys in his face, getting hit, put on his back but he's still getting the ball out. Even if he's just throwing it away, he's saving us sacks. He's really able to make plays under pressure and find a way to get first downs. It's a good quality in a quarterback." Gradkowski's teammates really respect his toughness and passion for the game. Off a nice come from behind win last week, the Raiders head to Arizona with confidence and momentum, and I like their chances. The quarterback play of Derek Anderson has left much to be desired. He is struggling with accuracy and throwing interceptions, which has forced the Cardinals to take a more conservative offensive approach than in years’ past. This certainly plays right into our hands catching better than a field goal. The Cardinals are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. Meanwhile, the Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. I know the Cards will be ready to play after getting clocked last week, but I don't feel the Raiders are getting quite the respect they deserve with Gradkowski starting this one. Take the points.
Karl Garrett
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Cleveland at BALTIMORE (-11)
The G-Man's FREE play run stands at 36-29-1 the last 66 days. I have also netted you +209.5 dimes of net profit since February with my premiuim plays.
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I thought perhaps the Browns would be improved this season, but after 2 games and 2 losses with just only 28 points scored, I don't see any marked improvement from the Brownies this season.
Baltimore split a tough pair of road games to open the season, winning at the Jets, while losing outright at Cincinnati as the 3-point road favorite.
Sure this line is a little high, but Baltimore is back for their home opener, and their offense figures to do a little more business against this Cleveland defense, while the Baltimore defense figures to make life difficult for whoever is under center for the Browns in this one.
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The Ravens have owned the Browns of late, winning and covering the last 4 series meetings, and they did keep the Browns out of the end zone last season at M&T Bank Stadium, winning it 34-3.
Baltimore has gone 11-5 versus the line at home their last 16, and they are 24-13 overall against the spread under John Harbaugh the last 3 years.
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G-Man gonna lay the big number and look for Baltimore to dominate Cleveland one more time.
3♦ BALTIMORE
Karl Garrett
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Pittsburgh (-3) at TAMPA BAY
Now let's get to a Sunday comp play winner for you. 2 games in the books for the Steelers, 2 unders in the books for the Steelers.
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2 games in the books for the Buccaneers, 2 unders in the books for the Bucs.
Hard to make a case for much offense at Ray James Stadium this afternoon, as Pittsburgh has not yet scored a touchdown from scrimmage in regulation this season yet!
Josh Freeman is still learning his way in this league, and playing against this Pittsburgh defense is a tall task to tackle for any QB, let alone a second year starter.
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Dating back to last year, the Buccaneers have been under the total in 9 straight games.
G-Man has to expect the points to be at a premium this afternoon in Tampa, and another under to be posted come the final gun.
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Pittsburgh-Tampa Bay stays low!
4♦ UNDER
Michael Cannon
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Cleveland at BALTIMORE (-11)
Take the Ravens as the big home chalk over the Browns.
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Baltimore finally plays its home opener today and I expect the Browns to be on the bad end of a beatdown.
That’s because the Ravens are off a frustrating loss to the Bengals last week. Joe Flacco played terrible and Baltimore was flagged on two questionable calls that allowed the Bengals to kick two field goals, which made the difference in the outcome.
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The Browns will be without quarterback Jake Delhomme again, which means Seneca Wallace gets the start. Wallace might be a serviceable backup, but he’s not going to keep the Browns close against a team like the Ravens.
Baltimore has struggled offensively in the first two games and I expect a breakout here. The Browns don’t have a very good defensive front, which means the Ravens should find plenty of running room. I also expect Flacco to bounce back from a miserable outing last week.
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The Ravens have won and covered all four meetings with the Browns the past two seasons. Baltimore coach John Harbaugh is 11-5 ATS at home since 2008 and 24-13 ATS overall.
Lay the points with the Ravens as they grab the home win and cover.
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3♦ BALTIMORE
Bobby Maxwell
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Pittsburgh (-2') at TAMPA BAY
I split with my two college football freebies on Saturday with a winner on Oregon State plus the points at Boise State and fell with Notre Dame at home against Stanford. Today I've got an NFL winner for you as I go with the Steelers on the road to win and cover against Tampa Bay.
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As for my freebie, does it really matter who starts at QB for the Steelers as long as their defense is playing as well as they have in the first two weeks? NO! With Troy Palamalu healthy, this is the best defense in the NFL and they will go in and manhandle the Bucs today and deliver another Pittsburgh victory.
Last week, the Steelers forced the Titans into seven turnovers in their 19-11 win at Tennessee and made QB Vince Young look so bad that he was benched in the second half. Now they get second-year QB Josh Freeman and they are going to keep him on the move and confused.
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Pittsburgh has allowed just 10 points a game through the first two and last week they held Chris Johnson to 34 yards on 16 carries. So in the first two weeks they have held Michael Turner and Johnson to a combined 76 yards on 35 carries. That’s not good news for the Bucs who try to mix it up with Freeman at QB and RB Carnell Williams.
Offensively, the Steelers haven’t been very good, but they don’t have to be with that defense. QB Charlie Batch is making his first start since 2007 and they will continue to pound the ball with RB Rashard Mendenhall. The offense hasn’t scored a TD in regulation this season, the only TD they got was in OT when Mendenhall went 50 yards to beat the Falcons.
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Pittsburgh has won the last three meetings with the Bucs, including a 20-3 win in 2006, easily cashing as seven-point home favorites. Last time they were in Tampa, the Steelers got a 17-7 win as 4 ½-point road ‘dogs.
Tampa Bay has not been good at the betting window, just 5-16 ATS on grass, 2-10 at home, 1-8 as home ‘dogs and 2-5 against teams with a winning record. Pittsburgh comes in on ATS surges of 4-0 on the road against teams with winning home records, 3-0-1 overall and 10-4-1 against winning teams.
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The Bucs have had a surprising 2-0 start, but they really haven’t beaten anybody. They edged the Browns at home in the opener 17-14 and then they went to Carolina a week ago and scored a 20-7 win. Those are two of the worst teams in the NFL and neither plays defense like the Steelers.
I’m backing the Pittsburgh defense in this one. Lay the points and play the Steelers.
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3♦ PITTSBURGH
Bobby Maxwell
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N.Y. Jets at MIAMI (-2')
On to my comp play, the Jets might just be the biggest enigma in the NFL. One week they can’t move the ball at all, then the next week it looks like more of the same until the second half when the offense wakes up and takes charge to beat the Patriots 28-14. But tonight, they are in Miami against a stingy defense that is very pumped up to get them at home. I’ll lay the small chalk and go with the Dolphins in their home opener.
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There have been some off-field issues for the Jets this week, as we’ve all heard that CB Darrelle Revis is out for tonight’s contest and won’t even make the trek to Miami, nursing his left hamstring. Also we all heard about WR Braylon Edwards who was arrested on charges of drunken driving on Tuesday and will not start against the Dolphins tonight, but is expected to play. Also questionable is center Nick Mangold who has a shoulder problem and will be limited in his effectiveness.
The Miami defense has been outstanding in its first two games, limiting Buffalo to 166 total yards in a 15-10 season-opening victory and then going to Minnesota last week and they forced QB Brett Favre into four turnovers and scored a TD of their own on a recovered fumble in the end zone.
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The Dolphins’ offense has been very unspectacular this season with QB Chad Henne putting up just 296 yards passing and one TD with no INTs. He completed a bomb to WR Brandon Marshall in his first attempt last week and then they weren’t able to do much after that.
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Last year against the Jets in a primetime game at home, Henne completed 20-of-26 passes for 241 yards and two TDs and led the Dolphins to a winning TD with six seconds left as Ronnie Brown went in from three yards out. Miami has won each of the last three matchups after losing five in a row prior to that. The Dolphins are 3-0 ATS in the last three, winning each as a three-point underdog.
Miami is on ATS surges of 8-1 against AFC East foes, 5-1 after a straight-up win, 8-3 against the AFC and 5-2 overall. I’ll go ahead and go with the home team to get the win and cover tonight in a tight game. Look for the Dolphins to win this thing in the range of 24-17.
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4♦ MIAMI
Michael Cannon
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Cincinnati (-3) at CAROLINA
Lay the points with the Bengals on the road over the Panthers.
Normally I try to shy away from road chalks that are off a division game, but the Bengals shouldn’t have any problem here today.
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That’s because the Panthers are a mess right now. They don’t have an offense and will turn to rookie Jimmy Clausen at quarterback.
While Clausen might wind up being a good quarterback in this league, it’s not going to happen today. From what I’ve seen from this kid in the preseason and his limited action last week he’s just not ready. Cincinnati is a ball-hawking secondary that can really create problems for opposing quarterbacks. The Bengals picked off Baltimore’s Joe Flacco four times last week and he’s one of the better QBs in the league.
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Imagine what the Bengals can do against a rookie making his first start?
On the other side of the ball I expect the Bengals to get their passing game going today. Carson Palmer has Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens to throw to but they haven’t clicked on all cylinders yet.
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That could change today.
Cincinnati is going to run to set up the pass and as the game goes on it will wear down the young Panthers defense.
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Lay the points with Cincinnati for the road win and cover.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Joel Tyson
Atlanta (+3) at NEW ORLEANS
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After losing a tough one Week 1 at Pittsburgh, Atlanta came home and gained some confidence with their 41-7 pasting of Arizona last Sunday at the Georgia Dome.
Now it is on to the Big Easy for the Falcs, and this is the team they have been setting their sights on.
Both teams have some injuries to contend with in their backfield, but I believe the loss of Reggie Bush is going to hurt the Saints a little more than the injuries to both Norwood and Turner for the Falcons.
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The Saints just played on the west coast on Monday night, and the short work week definitely works against them this weekend at home.
New Orleans is just 4-9-1 against the spread their last 14 games - playoffs included - and only 11-12 against the spread as a home favorite since 2007.
Throw in the fact the Falcons covered both meetings last season against the Saints, and are 21-4 against the spread their last 25 visits to 'Nawlins, and you have one live division dog this Sunday afternoon in the Falcons-Saints clash.
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Take the points.
2♦ ATLANTA
Stephen Nover
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Atlanta (+3) at NEW ORLEANS
I am offering the Atlanta Falcons as a free pick against the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints got hot early last year and have been heavily taxed since then. Their pointspread mark during their past 12 regular-season games is 3-9.
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Now the Saints find themselves in a tough situational spot laying more than a field goal to a solid Falcons squad after having just played a tough game this past Monday against San Francisco on the road. The 49ers outgained the Saints, 417-287.
The Falcons, like the Saints, are a dome team used to playing on artificial turf. The teams split in their two games last year, with the Falcons covering both times.
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The Saints are vulnerable to a good running back. Frank Gore gashed them for 112 yards on 20 carries. Michael Turner is just as capable.
Matt Ryan is a much better quarterback, too, than Alex Smith. He'll be helped by getting back Michael Jenkins, Atlanta's No. 2 wideout who missed the team's first two games.
This will be the Saints' first game without Reggie Bush, who suffered a broken leg against San Francisco. The loss of Bush not only hurts the Saints on special teams, but it limits what coach Sean Payton can do as far as setting up mismatches, something he's a master at. Bush was a huge chess piece for him.
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But even with Bush, the Saints haven't had the explosiveness on offense they had last year ranking a below average 21st in total offense. The Saints are averaging an NFC-low 2.6 yards per rush.
3♦ ATLANTA
Stephen Nover
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Washington (-4') at ST. LOUIS
I am offering the Washington Redskins as a free pick against the St. Louis Rams.
To paraphrase Dennis Green's famous rant after his then Cardinals blew a game to the Bears, "The Rams are who we thought they were."
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And that is a terrible team. St. Louis has lost its last 14 home games. In fact, the Rams have won exactly one time during their past 28 games and that was against the Lions.
Sam Bradford shows signs of promise. But the talent level remains way down in St. Louis. Don't be fooled by the Rams hanging in against the Raiders and Cardinals. Those two teams aren't very good with the Raiders being buried by the Titans, who then proceeded to lose badly to Pittsburgh, and falling to Arizona, who were buried by Atlanta last week.
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The Rams only lost by two to Oakland, but were out-gained by nearly 200 yards. Bradford is a rookie quarterback playing behind a bad offensive line with a rookie left tackle and having no receiving weapons. Running back Steven Jackson is the Rams' only playmaker and his knee is not 100 percent. Bradford is averaging a meager 5.2 yards per pass attempt because he doesn't have time or the receivers to make downfield plays. He's already been picked off four times.
Making it worse is the Rams have a cluster injury problem at tight end, which hurts Jackson since the tight ends are used mainly as blockers to open the edge for Jackson.
The Redskins are improved this season now that they have a real coach. Their defense usually is solid. They held Dallas to seven points on the road opening week. The Redskins' defense should be even better this week with LaRon Landry and Kareem Moore reuniting. They are one of the top safety tandems in the league.
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Washington should be mad after blowing a huge lead last week at home to undefeated Houston. The Redskins won't be overlooking the Rams either after barely winning against them last year and losing to them as 13-point favorites two years ago.
The Redskins' offense is picking up as Donovan McNabb gets more comfortable and develops chemistry with his wide receivers. This will be McNabb's third game with Washington. This matchup represents a huge step down in class for the Redskins after facing the Cowboys and Texans.
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4♦ WASHINGTON
Chuck O'Brien
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San Francisco (-3) at KANSAS CITY
Now onto Sunday’s first of two complimentary NFL selections, as I’ll take the 49ers as a short road favorite at Kansas City. This has all the makings of a classic trap game. You’ve got one team (San Francisco) that’s 0-2, coming off a heartbreaking Monday night loss to the defending Super Bowl champs (so one day less of preparation) and it is traveling to one of the most hostile venues in the NFL to face an opponent (Kansas City) that’s 2-0 and gaining confidence. And yet the visitor is favored? Doesn’t make a lot of sense, right?
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Well, this is one of the instances where the records are indeed very misleading. First off, Kansas City got a fluke win over the Chargers in Week 1 (their points came on a long punt return, a 56-yard TD run and a turnover that put the offense in the red zone, and beyond that they benefited greatly from a monsoon that clearly hampered San Diego’s offense). Then last week, the Chiefs got a pick-six in a 17-14 win at the Browns.
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How fraudulent are the Chiefs? Well, they’ve averaged just 254.5 total yards per game (with QB Matt Cassel barely completing 50 percent of his passes for a total of 244 yards) … and given up 344 ypg. The Niners, meanwhile, outgained BOTH the Seahawks and Saints and come into this one averaging 340 ypg and allowing just 264.5 (including just 63.5 rushing ypg).
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At 0-2, the 49ers – a chic pick to not only win the NFC West but possibly make a deep playoff run – are very desperate for a victory, while the Chiefs (6-16 ATS last 22 at home) are ripe for a fall. Look for San Francisco’s defense (which beat the snot out of the Saints on Monday) to make life miserable for Cassel (who is awful), and I see the Niners (13-6-4 ATS last 23 games; 4-0-1 ATS last five after a SU loss) winning this one by at least a touchdown.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Chuck O'Brien
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Indianapolis (-5') at DENVER
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For your second complimentary NFL release on Sunday, I’ll take the Colts minus the points at Denver.
I know this sounds odd, seeing that my free plays today are on San Francisco and Indy, but I’m really not a big fan of playing road favorites in the NFL – and certainly road chalks were a disaster last week. But these are free selections, not premium plays (hopefully you understand the difference). Secondly, the situations and fundamental matchups truly favor the 49ers and Colts today.
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In the case of Indy, it historically has given the Broncos trouble, winning (and covering) six of the last nine meetings, including the last three in a row. Last year in Indy, the Colts rolled to a 28-16 victory as a 6½-point home favorite (in that game, Denver WR Brandon Marshall went nuts for 21 catches and 200 yards, and yet Denver only managed two touchdowns and one field goal … and Marshall is now a Dolphin).
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The Broncos are hurting in this game, too, with starting cornerbacks Champ Bailey (an All-Pro) and Andre Goodman questionable with leg injuries. Both will probably play, but how effectively? And, gee, do you think Peyton Manning knows how to exploit gimpy cornerbacks?
The Colts, despite last Sunday’s rout of the Giants, still have a bitter taste in their mouths from their first road trip of the season (34-24 loss at Houston when they got run over by Arian Foster), and that alone will serve as ample motivation. As for the Broncos, their 31-14 win over Seattle last week was a bit misleading, as they benefitted from four turnovers (including three Matt Hasselbeck interceptions). Think Manning and the Colts will be that generous with the football? No chance.
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The Broncos are still just 3-9 SU since their bye week last year and 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 home games. Indy has cashed in seven of its last nine road games (6-1 ATS as a road chalk) and it is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 overall. And even though this spread is slightly higher than it should be, note that the SU winner has covered the number in each of the last nine Broncos-Colts meetings.
3♦ INDIANAPOLIS
Derek Mancini
Detroit at MINNESOTA (-11')
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Laying the chalk here with a small play on the Vikings to hammer the Lions in this contest. Let's get one thing straight, the Lions' secondary is terrible, and despite all his struggles, Brett Favre will rip them a new one this afternoon. Detroit is ranked 30th in the NFL in pass defense, surrendering 305 yards per game - case closed.
More importantly, Detroit simply cannot stop the run, and that's music to Adrian Peterson's ears. Opposing running backs have stampeded this Lions stop unit for 437 yards and 5 TDs already this season, and its only going to get worse today on the road. We can all agree that Detroit's defense is better than last year, but they still have a LONG way to go.
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I like Jahvid Best as much as the next guy, but everyone knows this Vikes run defense is excellent. They're allowing 3.7 yards per carry, and despite the loss to Miami last week, they were still rock-solid (except for the one 51-yard run by Ronnie Brown). Best has been the talk of the town, but I'd scale back my expectations for the speedy back in this contest. With Hill under center, and Best bottled up, where does the offense come from for Detroit this afternoon?
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No one wants to go 0-3, but let's not give the Lions credit before credit is due. They are an improving franchise, but the Vikings are infinately more talented at this juncture. Look for Jared Allen to reek havoc on the defensive side, while old man Favre finally puts together a respectable start. His absence in training camp was obvious the first two weeks, but now in Week 3 he should've had enough time to adjust. Lay it with Minnesota big over Detroit Sunday.
1♦ MINNESOTA
Derek Mancini
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Philadelphia at JACKSONVILLE (+3)
Another dog here, as the Jaguars host the Eagles in a game that will be a lot more competitive than most bettors are anticipating. With a majority of bettors jumping aboard the Eagles bandwagon, this line is a perfect trap for the public who can't get enough of Michael Vick. Problem is all the hype is a little silly, mainly because its based on a big game against the sorry-ass Lions defense! C'mon guys, are you really going to annoint Vick as "better than ever" just because he beat up on the Lions?
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On the flip side, David Garrard is coming off a terrible game, but is poised for the bounce back here. He's always been better at home, and that goes for his main target Mike Sims-Walker (10-105-1 against San Diego). Not only is the Eagles secondary very beatable (allowing 248 passing yards), but with their inability to stop the run, the play action pass will be there all game long. If you allow the Jaguars to effectively run the football - especially at home - they will be competitive.
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Say what you will about Jacksonville's defense, but they were solid against Denver in their only home game this season, holding them to 17 points and 363 total yards of offense. Long story short, this Jacksonville team is looking for the bounce back, and while most bettors are drunk on the Vick kool-aid, it's Garrard (and Jones-Drew) who are the difference makers in this contest. Jacksonville plus the points over Philadephia Sunday.
3♦ JACKSONVILLE
JIM FEIST COMP
CINCINNATI BENGALS / CAROLINA PANTHERS
PLAY: CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Bengals (1-1 SU/ATS) went to a ball control offense last season to take the heat off QB Carson Palmer and it worked. They are using that same strategy in 2010, falling behind New England in the opener (38-24 loss) then a 15-10 slugfest win Sunday over the Ravens, kicking 5 field goals. The offense had only 253 total yards, but the defense allowed 259 and forced 4 interceptions. Carolina (0-2 SU/ATS) really has no choice but to try and run it, as they shipped Jake Delhomme out of town. QB Matt Moore (2 TDs, 4 INTs) has not looked ready for prime time, so rookie QB Jimmy Clausen will start Sunday against Cincinnati. Two games into the season, the Panthers have scored two touchdowns, coughed up eight turnovers and tried two quarterbacks. They opened with a 31-18 loss at the NY Giants, as the offense had just 237 total yards. Rookie QB Jimmy Clausen was 7 of 13 for 59 yards. They have a terrific backfield with Jonathan Stewart (1,133 yds, 5.1 ypc in 2009) and DeAngelo Williams (1,117, 5.2 ypc). The difference I believe in today's game is going to be Claussen. New blood will help bring some balance to this Panthers club, something they have lacked thus far. Another reason I like the Panthers here is because Marvin Lewis is 4-17 his last 21 as a favorite and 1-7 on the road as a favorites his last 8 trips. I look for the Panthers to get their first win of the season on Sunday.
Great Lakes Sports
Atlanta at New Orleans
Play: New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints are a very respectable 21-15 ATS overall the last three years, and the New Orleans Saints are 7-2 ATS when playing the last three years in the month of September. The New Orleans Saints is also 10-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9 points the last three years, and they are 16-10 ATS in the role of a favorite the last three years. We look for the New Orleans Saints to roll over the Atlanta Falcons to grab the home ATS Win&Cover today.
O.C. Dooley
Bengals / Panthers Over 38
One may want to call this a “law of averages” pick as both teams have star offensive players who have yet to bust loose on the field. Even though the Jets received a ton of preseason attention with via the HBO show Hard Knocks, it was the Bengals who grabbed a ton of publicity with the signing of controversial Terrell Owens who is teamed up with the equally controversial Chad Ochocinco. To make a long story short the proclaimed “batman and robin” have yet to make a statistical impact which in my mind makes them undervalued for a breakout performance. Carolina’s attack a year ago was anchored by their 1,000 yard rushing tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. That pair are also undervalued for a breakout after averaging only 104 yards per game on the ground in the initial two weeks of action. Like many other teams in the league Carolina has made a switch in quarterbacks to Jimmy Clausen who at the very least is better suited to avoid the pass rush of the opposition. Previous Panthers starter Matt Moore has found a seat on the bench (41% completions, 4 interceptions, 2 lost fumbles) in part because he had been sacked EIGHT times and had wilted under pressure. Turning to the database here is an 80-PERCENT SYSTEM (31-8 since 1983 with a posted total between 35’-and-42 points) which takes teams like Cincinnati off an upset “divisional” win as a home underdog OVER the total, against an opponent shaking off a home loss. My research also indicates that long term Cincinnati is an eye opening 10-2 OVER when off an upset “divisional” win as a home underdog, which agrees with the aforementioned system
Jimmy Moore
Tennessee @ New York Giants
Pick: Tennessee +3
This one just jumps off the page. You are going to give me Tennessee - with coach Fischer who one of the best underdog coaches in the NFL - plus points against a Giants team that was hammered last week by the Colts. Tennessee is off of a tough loss and will be very motivated in this one while the Giants are still trying to figure out what hit them last Sunday. Take the points.
Tom Stryker
Tennessee (+) over NY Giants
Turnovers killed Tennessee in the Titans 19-11 home loss to Pittsburgh last week. In that bitter defeat, there was a bright spot. Head coach Jeff Fisher was elated with the play of Tennessee's defense as the group limited Pittsburgh to a ridiculous seven first downs and 127 total yards of offense.
Respect is given to New York quarterback Eli Manning and his abilities. However, this isn't the best spot for the G-Men. According to my NFL database, game three home favorites that check in off a straight up loss are a stiff 12-22-5 ATS provided both teams sport 1-1 SU records. The knee-jerk reaction might be to side with this early-season .500 home team thinking they will want to bounce back and protect their home turf. The exact opposite happens.
One think that can't be overlooked is Tennessee's record outside of conference play. In their last 44 games against NFC teams, the Titans are a reliable 33-11 SU and 28-13-3 ATS including a nearly perfect 10-1 SU and ATS in this role priced as an underdog of +4' or less. Equally impressive, in its last 32 on foreign soil, Tennessee stands 20-12 ATS including a profitable 11-4 SU and ATS in this role matched up against a foe that checks in off SU loss.
In last week's loss to the Colts, the Giants allowed 161 yards rushing. Titans RB Chris Johnson was limited to just 34 yards last Sunday against the Steel Curtain. Rest assured, Johnson will get his yards here and the Titans will run away with the victory. Take Tennessee.
Tom Freese
St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs Jeff Samardzija has won both of his two starts this year allowing just allowing just 3 runs total in those two starts. Chicago is 8-3 their last 11 games. The Cubs are 5-2 their last 7 games vs. righty starters. Chicago is 8-2 off a win and they are 6-1 their 7 games with the Cardinals. St Louis starter Jake Westbrook has more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. The Cardinals are 5-21 their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Redbirds are 1-5 in the last 76 starts made by Westbrook on the road. St. Louis is 6-18 their last 24 games vs. NL Central teams.
John Ryan
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Prediction: Buffalo Bills
5* graded play on Buffalo as they take on New England set to start at 1 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by fewer than 11 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 53-14 ATS for 75% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites of 10.5 or more points versus division opponents off an upset loss as a favorite. Here is a second system that has gone 77-38 ATS for 67% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites off a road loss playing an opponent off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more. Buffalo has the running game to control the tempo of the game and to shorten the game keeping Tom Brady off the field. The combination of CJ Spiller, Marshawn Lynch, and Fred Jackson will do well against the Patriots defense. Spiller has yet to explode onto the NFL scene, but this would certainly be a matchup that favors his running abilities. The Patriots secondary is young and was torched by the Jets Sanchez, who had a career day because the reads were elementary after the snap. Given the inexperience of cornerbacks Darius Butler and Devin McCourty, the Bill shave an excellent matchup with wide receiver Lee Evans. Bills cover.
Michael Alexander
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -10.5
The Baltimore Ravens look to bounceback today when they face the struggling Cleveland Browns. After opening the season on the road the Ravens finally get to play a home game and will be facing a Browns team that scored a total of 3 points against their defense last season. This season thus far, the Browns have scored only 14 points at Tampa Bay, and 14 points at home versus Kansas City.
Baltimore's Joe Flacco struggled for the second straight week, throwing four interceptions and going 17 of 39 for 154 yards. In the Ravens' opener, a 10-9 win over the New York Jets, Flacco lost a fumble and threw an interception.
Baltimore will be looking to get it's ground game going versus a Cleveland team that has given up 129.5 rushing yards per contest - 25th in the league. The Ravens have typically run the ball well versus Cleveland (0-2), averaging more than 142 yards on the ground in the last seven meetings.
Supporting Angles: BALTIMORE is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
Doug Upstone
Washington Redskins vs. St Louis Rams
Play: Washington Redskins -3½
Both the Washington Redskins and St. Louis Rams have had their problems running the ball to start the new season. Washington is dead last in the league at 53.5 yards per game and St. Louis is 25th at 80 YPG. Remarkably this sets up in the Redskins favor as home teams after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game (75 vs. Oakland) against opponent who gained 99 or less rushing yards in two consecutive contests are 11-34 ATS the past four years.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Cincinnati Bengals -3
There's no doubt the Panthers will play hard at home in hopes of earning their first win of the season, but I'm going to lay the field goal with the better football team. The Bengals gained a lot of confidence with an impressive win over Baltimore last week. In that game, they made Joe Flacco's life a living hell, and I expect the Cincy defense to be a nightmare for Jimmy Clausen in his first NFL start as well. Carolina wants to run the football, but the Cincy defense is good enough to slow down the running game. That's puts a lot of pressure on an inexperienced QB to win this game with his arm, and the odds are against that happening. Carolina started last season slow as well, and is now 0-6 ATS in the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. In addition, Carolina is just 9-18 ATS in its last 27 games following 2 or more consecutive losses. Bet the Bengals.