Jesse Schule
Eagles vs. Jets
Pick: Jets
The Eagles offense looked unstoppable in the pre-season, but they've had their wings clipped in the first two games of the regular season. It won't get any easier this week on the road in New York, facing the 2-0 Jets.
New York has terrorized opposing quarterbacks so far, picking off Andrew Luck three times on Monday night, and forcing an interception and four fumbles in Week 1 versus Cleveland. They are the first team in over 20 years to have five takeaways in each of their first two games to start a season.
That certainly doesn't bode well for the Eagles, who haven't been able to get anything going with their running game. Despite signing last year's leading rusher DeMarco Murrary in the off-season, the Eagles have run for an NFL worst 70 yards in the first two weeks. The offensive line has struggled, taking a ton of holding penalties and giving Sam Bradford very little time to get rid of the ball. Bradford has thrown four interceptions and just two TD passes during an 0-2 start.
One of the lone bright spots for Philly had been the play of linebacker Kiko Alonso, but he suffered a knee injury last week and might be done for the season. Veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been incredibly efficient so far, throwing for 423 yards with four TDs and just two picks, completing percent of his passes in the first two weeks.
Chip Kelly's nightmares are likely to continue here in New York.
Marty Mover
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Buffalo Bills +3
The Miami Dolphins have looked in disarray and out of sync. At this time the Buffalo Bills have the better offensive line and the Dolphin running attack is averaging just 17 rushes per game, compared to 39 passes, and only 3.4 yards per rush. Lamar Miller is banged up which does not help when facing an aggressive defense like the Bills have. Bills look better prepared for this game.
Sleepyj
Saints / Panthers Under 45
I can't see this one getting over the total...WIth or without Drew Brees..Brees may not play and if he doens;t this one should cash for us....I'd make this wager now because this number has the potential to really drop here...If and when Brees gets ruled out this number will moved a full 3 pts i think...So i find fvalue in that alone..If Brees does play his rotator cuff injury will be an issue..He hasn;t looked all that great and aside from Brdin Cooks, the Saints really have nothing to flashy..They must rely on slowing the games down and using the run game....If the backup McNown gets the start i really think the Saints try to grind out a win here..Panthers defense is nothing to play with at home..They can stop this team and if Brees is on the field the scouting report for a division game should be solid to slow him down as well...Now i know all about the Saints defense..Not very good...Panthers offense IMO..Not very good..SO the Saints can rise up here as they have faced two teams that threw the ball well...I think the Saints can dial in here on the blitz a little more and pressure Cam for the most part...Panthers have a decent run game and i'm sure they can control the clock just by running the ball here...Newton has very few weapons and the talent gap from wideout to secondary here for the Panthers is very thin IMO...I can see one of the ugly field goal difference type of game here....Panthers 19-16.
Indian Cowboy
Jacksonville / New England Under 47.5
Jacksonville and that defensive line is going to give Tom Brady and the Patriots everything they can handle this weekend. That defensive line is vastly underrated, and to them, frankly this is the Super Bowl. This team comes off their first win, and certainly they have arrived even though others are not giving this team enough credit, we certainly are per our models. And how excited will the Patriots be to play the likes of the Jaguars with so many other teams on the horizon? Note, that this team scored 40 points in their last game and are in for a classic letdown spot here and with the Jaguars strength as their defense, on a low total to begin with for quite the reason, we expect this to be a closer than expected contest and a low-scoring game. The Under is 8-3 for the Jaguars against the AFC and the Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in New England as well to boot. We have this contest at about 43 points per our models this Sunday afternoon with Jacksonville likely staying inside the number as well.
Power Sports
Oakland vs. Cleveland
Pick: Oakland
They say that when you have two quarterbacks, you really don't have any. Therefore, you can probably guess what my opinion is on Cleveland's ongoing QB "debate" between Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel. The former, after sitting out the team's Wk 2 win over Tennessee, will get the nod here but does it really matter?
My answer to that question would be "no." This will be one of the rare times this season that you will be able to catch the Browns actually laying points, so take advantage accordingly. Over the past two seasons, not only has Cleveland gone 4-8 ATS in the chalk role, they are just 6-7 STRAIGHT UP. For the record, I think they're making the wrong decision in going w/ McCown, whose career track record is not indicative of a capable NFL starter. Turnovers were the key in both Browns games thus far; they were -4 in that department when they lost the opener to the Jets & +3 last week vs. Tennessee. I simply would not trust this team as a favorite as wins are typically few and far between for them.
The same can, of course, be said for Oakland. This is a revenge spot for the Raiders, who lost here in Cleveland last year, 23-13, despite giving up just over 300 total yards. I think that their second year QB Derek Carr has improved dramatically since that time and looked very impressive in leading a 37-33 upset of Baltimore at home last week. Unlike last year, Carr has a solid set of receivers to throw to, in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. That's better than anything Cleveland has at the skill positions. Carr threw for a career-high 351 yards last week and his yards per attempt were way up as well (good sign). While it's a road game in the Eastern Time Zone, I think that the Raiders at least cover here.
Sam Martin
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles
While some may have assumed this Eagles-Jets matchup would feature a 2-0 team vs. a 0-2 team, not many would have the Jets unbeaten after two games while Philly is still in search of their first win. Jets have forced 5 turnovers in each of their first two games, but we don't think they'll be able to rely on that anymore and to be honest they should have scored more points considering that many turnovers forced and where their offense took over.
Eagles offense has been dismal but we have faith in Chip Kelly and believe they start to turn things around starting this week. Great line value backing the Eagles here as this line would likely be far different if it took place in Week 1. The Eagles defense has been very good against the run and the Jets' passing game has much to be desired. Eagles don't even need to be running on full throttle to win this game - 20 points scored should be good enough for an outright win, and that's exactly what we're predicting.
Mike O'Connor
San Diego (+2.5) 22 MINNESOTA 21
The Chargers moved the ball well last week against the Bengals but couldn’t stop the Bengals offense in their loss in Cincinnati. The Chargers allowed 391 yards at 6.5 yppl and weren’t any good defending either the run or the pass- they allowed 177 rushing yards at 5.2 ypr and 214 passing yards at 8.2 yps. They’ll face a Vikings team in this game that clobbered Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense last week, allowing just 5.3 yps and completely eliminating the Detroit ground game (38 yards at 2.4 ypr). This was is stark contrast to their opening night loss in San Francisco where they looked like a completely different team, getting pounded at the point of attack on both sides of the ball in allowing the 49ers to dominate on the ground. So, it all depends on which team shows up for Minnesota.
The match-ups indicate continued success on the ground for the Vikings as the Chargers allow 150 rushing yards at 5.0 ypr but I don’t envision the Vikings passing the ball well in this game (Bridgewater is averaging just 150 passing yards at 5.5 yps). On the other side, the Chargers offense is predicated on the skill of quarterback Philip Rivers and the San Diego passing offense (averaging 306 passing yards at 8.1 yps – good for #3 in the league) and should be able to move the ball against an improving Viking defense.
My ratings favor the Vikings by just a ½ point and the Chargers qualify in a 488-390-25 general situation that has me leaning their way.
Tampa Bay (+6.5) 17 HOUSTON 19
The Bucs played well last week in their 26-19 road victory, outgaining the Saints 333 total yards at 5.6 yppl to 324 yards at 4.8 yppl for New Orleans. They were also somewhat fortunate as they were playing against a compromised Drew Brees, who bruised his rotator cuff and wasn’t effective in this game. The Tampa defense looks to be improved and registered 4 sacks while generating 3 turnovers and limited the Saints to 7 points through 3 quarters before giving up two 4th quarter touchdowns. Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston improved off of his Week 1 start, passing for 194 yards at 8.1 yps without an interception.
The Texans dropped to 0-2 with their loss in Carolina and had real trouble generating offense, totaling just 300 total yards of offense at 3.7 yppl. With starting left tackle Duane Brown inactive with a hand injury, they moved swing tackle Chris Clark into the starting lineup there, but shifted right tackle Derek Newton to left guard and Adams to right tackle. Then they lost Adams during the game to a serious knee injury that forced them to put undrafted rookie Kendall Lamm at right tackle. Needless to say, the offensive line is a mess and it doesn’t look like running back Arian foster will be back this week either.
This looks like a defensive battle to me and 6.5 points is too many to lay with an anemic Texans offense facing an improving Tampa defense. My rating favor the Texans by 6.2 points but the Bucs benefit from a 90-152-5 contrary situation as well as a 47-113-3 statistical match-up indicator that plays against Houston while qualifying in a 47-17-2 momentum situation of their own. I’ll lean with the Bucs plus the points.
New Orleans (+3.5) 22 CAROLINA 20
With the uncertain status of Saints quarterback Drew Brees, this game is off the board at most shops but I do see Carolina by 3.5 at a couple of places as of early Thursday morning. That number is assuming Brees plays, which he said on Wednesday he has every intention of doing, so at that number there is value on the Saints. I’m going to monitor this one and come back when there is clarity on the quarterback but for now I like the Saints.
BALTIMORE (-2.5) 25 Cincinnati 21
The Ravens are in not quite in panic mode after starting the season 0-2, but should have some sense of urgency to get their first win in this home divisional game against the Bengals. After losing Terrell Suggs in the opener, the Ravens struggled badly last week against a Raiders offense that was terrible in Week 1, allowing 37 points and giving up 449 total yards at 6.9 yppl. Meanwhile, the Bengals offense, enjoying the return of tight end Tyler Eifert and wide receiver Marvin Jones this season, has been impressive. Cincinnati rolled up chunks of yardage last week both on the ground and in the air against the Chargers defense in their 24-19 win and will provide a difficult match-up for the Ravens in this one.
Part of the Ravens issue this season so far is that they are only converting 25% of their third downs (#29 ranking) and have only scored touchdowns on 28.6% of their red zone opportunities (#30) while allowing opponents to convert 53.3% of their third downs (#29 ranking). Baltimore is in the middle of the pack in net yards per play (#13) so some of those rates may very well regress back towards the mean, which would certainly help their cause.
My ratings favor the Ravens by 3 ½ points and I like the spot for Baltimore but there are situations of nearly equal value in this game on each team that essentially cancel each other out, so I’ll just offer a lean on the Ravens minus the small number.
CLEVELAND (-3.5) 23 Oakland 18
The Raiders offense exploded last week to the tune of 37 points on 449 total yards at 6.9 yppl against a Baltimore defense that just the week prior held Peyton Manning and the Denver offense to 19 points. The Raiders were productive on the ground (98 rushing yards at 5.4 ypr) and especially in the air (351 passing yards at 7.5 yps) as without Terrell Suggs bringing the heat, Carr had time to survey the field and make accurate downfield throws. The problem was the Raiders defense, which allowed 33 points by the way of 493 total yards at 7.0 yppl and now on the season are giving up an average of 445 yards at 6.7 yppl. They certainly aren’t facing an offensive juggernaut in the Browns but with an explosive weapon in the passing game (wide receiver Travis Benjamin – 6 receptions for 204 yards (34.0 avg) and 3 touchdowns) facing a bad Raiders secondary, there could be some big plays.
Josh McCown will make the start as he returns after clearing the concussion protocol and should provide a minor upgrade over Johnny Manziel and should have some success against an Oakland pass defense ranked 30th in the league. On the other side, Carr and the Raiders offense will find passing the ball more difficult than last week against a Browns pass defense that is pretty good (allowing an average of 199 yards passing at 5.9 yps).
While the Raiders won last week, they have an inverse relationship in their yppl numbers as they relate to some of the stats that contain luck - they rank #31 in the league in net yards per play but have had success on third down (#9 offensively and #11 defensively) and in the red zone where they have converted 80% of their trips into touchdowns. That doesn’t bode well moving forward. Meanwhile, the Browns have been both bad and unlucky.
My ratings favor the Browns by 3.2 points and there are situations going both ways but based on the Raiders luck scores and bad yppl numbers I’ll lean with the Browns.
Jacksonville (+13.5) 19 NEW ENGLAND 31
The Jags put their first win of the year on the books last week in an impressive performance against one of the preseasons’ trendier choices to ascend in 2015, the Miami Dolphins. Jacksonville played well offensively, producing 397 total yards at 6.1 yppl with a balanced attack and defensively they shut down the run (allowed just 42 rushing yards at 2.6 ypr). They had problems slowing down the Dolphins passing game (allowed 344 yards at 8.3 yps) and that does not bode well in this game facing Tom Brady and a New England passing offense that is averaging 366 passing yards at 7.7 yps. On the other side, the Patriots throttled the Bills in Buffalo, jumping out to a 37-13 lead before Buffalo closed the gap with a few scores late in the 4th quarter to make the final score look closer than the game actually was.
New England has given up a lot of yardage on the ground (allowing 147 yards at 5.7 ypr) so look for the Jaguars to try to run the ball with rookie T.J. Yeldon, control the clock, and keep Brady on the sidelines. The Jags have also been good at defending the run, allowing an average of just 74 yards at 3.0 ypr, while the Patriots are averaging 71 rushing yards at 4.1 ypr, although that’s not really the Patriots game offensively.
My ratings favor the Patriots by about 14 ½ points and there are situations going both ways, with the stronger ones slightly favoring the Jags. I’m going to pass.
San Francisco (+6) 20 ARIZONA 25
After an opening night pasting of the Vikings in San Francisco, the 49ers fell back down to earth last week in Pittsburgh, trailing 29-3 at halftime before adding garbage yards and scores in the second half. Their defense was abysmal, allowing 457 total yards at 9.5 yppl and this week face a balanced Cardinals attack that is clicking on all cylinders. In fact, for the first time in years, the Cardinals have a ground game. Rookie David Johnson in a limited role so far has provided a burst for an Arizona attack that is averaging 119 rushing yards per game at 4.8 ypr. In addition, quarterback Carson Palmer looks like he is back to form after missing most of last season (averaging 246 passing yards at 8.8 yps). I expect that Arizona will move the ball well in this game.
On the other side, the 49ers will need to generate offense on the ground but that will be a difficult task against an Arizona defense that is allowing an average of 82 rushing yards at 3.4 ypr. If there is not the threat of a consistent ground game, Colin Kaepernick will be forced to make things happen on his own behind a an offensive line that has a Pass Blocking Efficiency rating of 66.3, last in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus.
My ratings favor the Cardinals by 8.4 points but the 49ers qualify in a general 488-390-25 situation. No real value here but a slight lean to the 49ers based on the situation.
MIAMI (-2.5) 23 Buffalo 19
The Bills were beaten soundly last week against the Patriots as their defense allowed 511 total yards at 7.0 yppl as the Patriots jumped out to a commanding 37-13 entering the 4th quarter before the Bills added some garbage yards and points. Part of the problem is that the Bills are still feeling out their personnel offensively and are developing their identity. It all starts with the quarterback and after playing lights out in Week 1, Taylor fell apart last week in a big spot. Belichick had a plan in place to attack Taylor and force him into quick decisions and so he blitzed nearly half the time. He mitigated Taylor’s mobility by playing his defensive ends wide and closing down rushing lanes quickly. As a result, Taylor passed for only 189 yards at 5.0 yps while taking 8 sacks and throwing 3 interceptions. He’ll have to play much better this week for the Bills to have a shot in this game. I don’t think it would be a shock to see the Bills run the ball 40+ times in an effort to limit pressure on Taylor and also to take advantage of a Miami rush defense that has allowed an average of 143 yards at 4.2 ypr.
Last week, the Dolphins lost in Jacksonville, throwing the ball effectively (344 passing yards at 7.6 yps) but couldn’t do anything on the ground (42 rushing yards at 2.6 ypr). The game plan should also be clear for the Dolphins – pass the ball early and often with the hope of setting up the run. Buffalo has only allowed an average of 62 yards rushing per game while Miami is averaging just 58 rushing yards at 3.5 ypr. If Tannehill gets some protection, there may be some opportunities against the Bills pass defense that will likely be missing safety Aaron Williams.
My ratings favor the Dolphins by 3.2 points but there are situations going both ways in this one. The Dolphins will likely take a page out of the Belichick manual and blitz Taylor to force some mistakes as the book is now out on him. I’ll lean slightly with the Dolphins minus the short number.
SEATTLE (-14) 29 Chicago 14
The Bears lost at home last week to the Cardinals, 48-23, as Carson Palmer threw four touchdown passes and Arizona benefitted from a defensive and a special teams touchdown to coast to victory. Meanwhile, Seattle lost in Green Bay and are now 0-2 on the season and in need of a win. The Bears look like they’ll be shorthanded offensively with Jay Cutler likely out (hamstring) and wide receivers Alshon Jeffery (hamstring) and Eddie Royal (back/hip) missing practice on Wednesday. Jimmy Clausen takes over at quarterback and is a downgrade, especially if Jeffrey and Royal can’t play. Travelling to Seattle to face an 0-2 Seahawks team is not the ideal start for a backup quarterback and he’ll face a Seattle defense that will now have safety Kam Chancellor back after he ended his holdout this week.
Seattle should be able to run the ball against a Bears defense that is allowing an average of 126 rushing yards at 4.6 ypr and when Seattle decides to throw, they’ll face a Bears pass defense that is allowing 8.0 yps (26th in the league). Chicago won’t have much success offensively unless running back Matt Forte gets on track but he may find that difficult facing a Seattle rush defense that is very good and has allowed an average of 102 yards per game at 3.8 ypr this season.
My ratings favor the Seahawks by 15.2 points and there are no situations on this game. I’ll lean with the Seahawks minus the points.
DETROIT (+3) 21 Denver 24
The Broncos were fortunate to get past the Chiefs last Thursday night and only did because of really good luck. As I mentioned in my Kansas City/Green Bay write-up, not only did Jamaal Charles fumble in the final minute and have it returned for a touchdown to win it for Denver, which is obviously highly improbable, but overall Kansas City suffered from a -4 turnover differential (fumbling 3 times and losing all 3 while Denver didn’t fumble once), didn’t convert a single third down (0 for 7) and were just 25% in the red zone (1 for 4), while the Broncos were 100% (3 for 3). The Chiefs were +1.1 in net yards per play overall and if not for some really bad luck would have won that game. The Broncos were not good on offense, generating just 299 total yards at 4.3 yppl. They had no run game to speak of (61 yards at 2.8 ypr) and Payton Manning and the Broncos pass offense was only able to produce 238 passing yards at 5.0 yps.
This week they’ll take on a Detroit team that was roughed up last week in their loss in Minnesota, with quarterback Matthew Stafford getting the worst of it. It appears that he’ll play this week but he may be compromised in this game and may rush things when faced with a strong Broncos pass rush. So far this season, the Broncos are only allowing 135 passing yards at 4.3 yps (#2 ranking) so Stafford is going to have his work cut out for him. He’ll need the threat of a ground game to be able to pass the ball but the Lions run blocking has not been good as they are only averaging 54 rushing yards at 3.5 ypr (28th in the league).
While the Broncos have been lucky, the Lions have been both bad and unlucky (Detroit is dead last in the league in net yppl) and have only converted 39.1% of their third downs (#21 ranking) while allowing opponents to convert 52% of the time. My ratings favor the Broncos by 2.8 points and there are no situations that apply to this game so it’s a toss-up to me.
Don Anthony
Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play:Dallas Cowboys +2
I think it's safe to say that everyone and their mother is going to line up at the window to bet the Atlanta Falcons. It seems way too easy to take Atlanta here, basically to just win the game. Vegas isn't stupid and they don't like giving money away. I believe this a huge trap. I am aware of all the injuries to Dallas, but typically in sports when a superstar goes down, the next game the team rises up and gives a very solid effort the next game. As long as Weeden doesn't make too many mistakes and takes care of the ball, Dallas has a very good chance to pull the upset at home.
Randall the Handle
BEST BETS
Bills (1-1) at Dolphins (1-1)
LINE: MIAMI by 3
Not real interested in spotting points with a Miami team whose work ethic would make even government workers laugh. Despite the Bills being schooled last week by the Patriots, we still believe them to have a top tier defence and better offensive weapons than the Dolphins. Miami’s ground game is non-existent, averaging just 58 yards per game in its first pair (QB Tannehill led team with 17 yards last week) and that’s not going to cut here. Fish can’t stop the run either, allowing 160 yards per game over past eight. It won’t help that Miami left tackle Brandon Albert is on a wonky ankle and that Bills’ DL Marcell Dareus is back for his second game after missing the opener. Along with Mario Williams antagonizing Miami’s inferior group, Buffalo should get back on track defensively. The Bills were a little too amped up for New England but you can bet that Rex Ryan will have them paying attention this time around, especially against a team they could very well be fighting for a wild-card spot with down the road. TAKING: BILLS +3
Bengals (2-0) at Ravens (0-2)
LINE: BALTIMORE -2½
Blue Chip stocks suffer losses sometimes but are usually quite reliable over the long term. Penny stocks are much more volatile, making large moves in short time frames. Most financial advisors will steer you the dependable route if they have your best interests in mind. So when Cincinnati is off to a strong 2-0 start while Baltimore is winless in its pair of games, of course it is Cincy that may have more appeal to the casual investor but we’d rather go with the known commodity. The Ravens are usually in the contenders mix. Their two opening losses were games they could have easily won. Baltimore returns home after starting out with consecutive road games and spending two weeks on the west coast rather than flying back east. At M&T Stadium, the Ravens have won 35 of past 42 played here. Baltimore has a Thursday night match with the Steelers awaiting them after this one. This one becomes crucial and we expect an all business response. TAKING: RAVENS -2½
Broncos (2-0) at Lions (0-2)
LINE: DENVER by 3
The Lions return home, where they are taking points, in prime time. Sign us up. The public has a bad taste in their mouths when it comes to an underachieving, underwhelming Detroit club. The same public is finicky about Peyton Manning and seemingly declining skills but right now, after a comeback win over KC last Thursday, Manning is in good standing. Kudos for the win but we expect the Lions to get pressure on Peyton, the same way they applied it to Teddy Bridgewater and Philip Rivers as Denver’s offensive line has not performed well. While this price may seem fair, we’re not sure it’s just. The Leos are a different team outside of this building and are happy to return to Ford Field where they’ve won four straight and 10 of 13. The Lions can pass the ball and their 259 yards per game are better than a Denver group throwing for less than 200 per game. Detroit should earn first win. TAKING: LIONS +3
THE REST
Steelers (1-1) at Rams (1-1)
LINE: PITTSBURGH by 1
If you’re not sure what to make of the Rams, you’re not alone. A popular pick last week against the seemingly weaker Redskins, after disposing of Seattle in Week 1, St. Louis came out flat and never recovered while suffering its first loss. Back home now, they’ll be asked to stop Pittsburgh’s high octane offence after the Steelers made child’s play out of San Francisco’s defence. While we understand the reluctance to buck Pittsburgh’s abilities, this pointspread could be out of whack. Quickly forgotten is the Steelers’ suspect defence, one that Jeff Fisher’s staff can take advantage of. The Rams also will not make things as easy for Ben Roethlisberger as St. Louis has 8.5 sacks in its first two games. TAKING: RAMS +1
Eagles (0-2) at Jets (2-0)
LINE: NY JETS by 2
Can the Eagles be this bad? Is the offensive line so poor that Philly’s ground game can be measured in feet instead of yards? The run game is so poor right now that 24 quarterbacks rushed for more yards than the entire Philadelphia team did a week ago. QB Sam Bradford, who is not exactly Usain Bolt, led the charge with nine rushing yards. What was supposed to be a top-ranked offence has managed to score just three points in the first halves of its first two games. Now, these low-flying birds will face the best defence they’ve seen so far. The Jets have some offensive issues also but with their shut down secondary and strong line play, asking Gang Green to win by a field goal is not asking for much. TAKING: JETS -2
Buccaneers (1-1) at Texans (0-2)
LINE: HOUSTON by 6½
The Texans’ ground game averaging just 79 yards per game thus far as RB Arian Foster is not quite ready to make his 2015 debut. Houston’s other offensive star finds Deandre Hopkins under league concussion protocol, his status uncertain. It won’t help that offensive tackle Duane Brown is nursing a broken thumb and may not go. While this host is known for its strong defence, Tampa has its share of talented defenders too. Houston has been favoured in this price range just three times over this season and last. Of course, that was in games against their division weaklings, spotting a touchdown or better to the Jaguars and Titans but still covering just once when doing so. This game is a toss-up, making the choice an easy one. TAKING: BUCCANEERS +6½
Chargers (1-1) at Vikings (1-1)
LINE: MINNESOTA by 2½
If not for an injury ravaged offensive line, we may have had Chargers in our best picks but with Philip Rivers likely to be under fire on this day, we’ll tame our choice here. Still, prefer a scrappy Chargers squad to a Vikings team that lacks an aerial game in this pass-happy league. The Bolts lost in Cincinnati a week ago but hung in until the end despite incurring three turnovers and eight penalties. San Diego is being asked to travel east on consecutive weeks but they have performed surprisingly well in these situations. They’ve also been a reliable underdog covering 14 of past 22 when taking points while taking the money in 16 of 23 outside of its own division. TAKING: CHARGERS +2½
Jaguars (1-1) at Patriots (2-0)
LINE: NEW ENGLAND by 13½
Even though the Patriots may not seem mortal, we assure you that they are. It is pointless for us to point out their attributes for this one. Safe to say, New England is the better team and any margin of victory would not surprise. However, being human, emotions play into this sport so when the Pats open the season after a dramatic offseason and follow it up with a big interdivision contest with the Bills, winning both, a mental letdown here would be excusable. We’ve seen it before with the Patriots as this powerful group has covered just once in past nine tries when favoured by double digits. Jags were decent last week, earning a win and with Belichick’s squad likely to ease up here, a cover is attainable. TAKING: JAGUARS +13½
Raiders (1-1) at Browns (1-1)
LINE: CLEVELAND by 3½
We’re still not sure how the Raiders defeated the Ravens last week after giving up nearly 500 of offence. That may have the marketplace treating Oakland like some upstart team. Don’t be fooled. The Raiders have a cluster of injuries in an already shaky secondary. It’s to a point that Oakland had to re-sign DB Taylor Mays after cutting him and having to claim a Redskins’ safety off of waivers this week. Granted, it’s Josh McCown and the Browns they’ll be facing but with an emerging weapon in Travis Benjamin and Cleveland hosting a weak traveling guest, spotting points here feels like the prudent way to go. Oakland’s offence has improved but Brownies capable of slowing it down with ample defenders. TAKING: BROWNS –3½
Colts (0-2) at Titans (1-1)
LINE: INDIANAPOLIS by 3½
Could this year’s Colts be last year’s 49ers where a good team has gone bad and the coach is a sitting duck after conflicts with upper management? Right now, that appears to be the case even though Indianapolis employs a legit franchise quarterback in Andrew Luck. The problem for young Andy is that there is little else around him. Hard to believe that this offence has yet to score a first half point this year. Tennessee has been Indy’s whipping boys for a number of years so the host won’t lack motivation in taking advantage of its guest’s woes. The Titans appear to have a franchise QB of their own as Marcus Mariota has been impressive in his inauguration. His guys should see renewed fan excitement in their first home game of the year. TAKING: TITANS +3½
Falcons (2-0) at Cowboys (2-0)
LINE: FALCONS by 1½
A battle for NFC supremacy! Well, not really. This line is skewed of course due to Dallas’ severe injury issues to several key stars. Still, giving away anything with an Atlanta team that usually travels like a four-year-old with a head cold is something we’re not anxious to do. The Falcons could just as easily be 0-2 after seeing both prior NFC East opponents shoot themselves in the feet when the game was on the line. Yes, Dallas will have to circle the wagons to keep the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones tandem in check but the Cowboys defence has continued to ascend since last season with the team buying into coach Rod Marinelli’s techniques. We’re always wary of overreactions and this one has our antennae up. TAKING: COWBOYS +1½
49ers (1-1) at Cardinals (2-0)
LINE: ARIZONA by 6
The Cardinals keep paying off like a broken slot machine but linemakers still insist on pricing them incorrectly. Hey, why look a gift horse in the mouth? San Fran’s stock was up after winning in front of a national audience two weeks ago. Following that one, a loss in Pittsburgh was expected. Seems folks are putting more weight on the victory than the loss. We’re not. The Niners lack the ability to score. When they fall behind, as they did a week ago and are likely to here, battling back with this pop-gun offence can be challenging. Meanwhile, the Cardinals keep winning and doing so convincingly. Carson Palmer’s at the top of his game, winning 10 of past 11 and discovering new playmakers along the way. Back to the well we go. TAKING: CARDINALS –6
Bears (0-2) at Seahawks (0-2)
LINE: SEATTLE by 14½
It should be interesting to see how Bears’ coach John Fox prepares for this one when the last time he faced the Seahawks resulted in a 43-8 drubbing in the Super Bowl. Fox was with a much stronger Denver squad then and he now must enter this lion’s den without his starting quarterback or top receiver. It could get ugly. The Seahawks will finally be home after starting out with a pair of road losses and if you’ve forgotten, they are nearly invincible on this field. They are also likely to have stud holdout safety Kam Chancellor back in the fold after he opted to end his self-imposed exile. Chicago has given up a league-worst 79 points in two games. It doesn’t figure to score many here. It’s a big spread but not without merit. TAKING: SEAHAWKS -14½
Chiefs (1-1) at Packers (2-0)
LINE: GREEN BAY by 6½
Packers guard T.J. Lang said this, “'It is probably one of the more satisfying regular-season wins that we've had, just to get that monkey off our back of not being able to beat these guys.” Turning their attention to the unassuming Chiefs just doesn’t have the same urgency. A letdown can be expected here even though the Packers don’t lose at Lambeau. Perhaps Green Bay will end up victorious but not without a fight. The Chiefs are best when taking points, covering seven of past 11 when taking points and they’ve only been a dog of six or more once since November of 2013, a game they covered when visiting Denver. A slower paced game with pressure on Aaron Rodgers should keep this one close. TAKING: CHIEFS +6½
AC Dinero
Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Detroit Lions +3
Denver comes in 2-0 off a miracle win at rival KC last week. The defense is very good, and manning showed glimpses of the old Peyton in the 2nd half of that game. But can he keep it up? Especially behind an iffy OL with 3 new starters? Detroit's season may be on the line as they have started out 0-2. Their OL has issues as well, but their defense is pretty good too. I'll fade a non conference road favorite coming off a road division win against a team desperate for a win
Wunderdog
Buffalo @ Miami
Pick: Buffalo +3
So when are Joe Philbin and the Dolphins going to take that next step? They keep making changes to a bad offensive line and nothing improves. Miami ranks #30 in yards rushing -- their leading rusher is averaging 2.9 ypc, and QB Ryan Tannehill has been sacked five times in two games. They gave Tannehill a speedy WR in Mike Wallace -- and he was a bust, one-and-done last year. Now they bring in NT Suh to improve the run defense, but the Dolphins rank #27 in rush defense, allowing 142 yards per game. There are still a lot of holes on this Miami team and one gets the sense that the wrong people are in charge, from the GM to the coach. The Dolphins are on a 1-6 ATS run, 2-5 ATS at home, and 0-5 ATS against the AFC. Rival Buffalo is in town with a talented all-around team for new coach Rex Ryan, a more known coaching commodity. This D-line for the Bills is expensive -- and talented, leading the NFL in sacks the last two seasons. Ryan is a defensive guy and even the offense looks better, ranked fourth in points (29.5 ppg), just behind the Patriots and just ahead of the mighty Packers. Buffalo is on a 6-2 ATS run, 4-0 ATS after a loss. The wrong team is favored in this divisional showdown, so take the points on Buffalo.
Tony George
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Buffalo Bills +3
Wow, a team with 2 TDs the entire regular season is laying points in the NFL. A Crazy week in the NFL as far as some very tricked out lines, including an 0-2 team laying 15 points, but lets stick with this line and game for a free NFL Play. This looks like an easy take on Miami this week after a debacle at Jacksonville last week laying less than a field goal, but I saw some real issues with Miami in that game and I think Rex Ryan and the Bills will expose them. And of course that would be the war in the trenches.
Buffalo had a huge build up to the Pats game last week and got beat up, although they did try and make a comeback late, they were flat out beat by one of the AFC’s best, so be it. It is Buffalo in this game that has the weapons and mobile QB that is a huge threat to Miami’s vaunted defense which I have yet to see any shock and awe, and with QB Taylor being unpredictable and using his legs it opens up a lot of options with Harvin, Watkins and Wood not to mention McCoy at RB. Bear in mind that Suh for Miami was ignoring the defensive coordinators play calls during the game and went rouge, and that is a sign of dissension and lack of chemistry.
Miami’s offensive line gave way to Jax last week in a big way and Tannehill was running for his life, so what do you think a pissed off Bills defense who was shredded last week is going to do? Miami has no business laying points with their anemic offense production and I am all over the Bills as a small pup here to win outright.
SPORTS WAGERS
CLEVELAND -3½ over Oakland
Oakland takes that dreaded trip from the West Coast to play an early game on the East Coast. The Raiders will also play a defense that has held all wideouts to under 62 yards. Cleveland’s defense can play. They did a good job against both the Jets and Tennessee and aside from a poor second half against the Jets, Cleveland has been very good in the six other quarters they’ve played. Cleveland hung with the Jets in the first half but five turnovers eventually did them in. Josh McCown is cleared from his concussion protocol and has been named the starter. This will be the weakest secondary the Browns have faced yet. QB’s have completed 72% of their passes against the Raiders for an eye-popping 653 yards. The Browns also have the luxury of having a little tape on the Raiders doing good things last week.
Oakland scored 37 points against the same Baltimore defense that held Peyton Manning to no offensive touchdowns in Week 1. David Carr was slinging the rock all over the place and hitting his targets right in the numbers. It was an attention grabbing performance by the Ravens and one that many witnessed since it was just one of three games in the late afternoon package last Sunday. Instantly, the 3½ points being offered here against Cleveland look appealing and it sticks out. Had the Raiders been playing in Cleveland in Week 2 after being buried by Cinci in Week 1, the 3½ points would not stick out, nor would they look as appealing. What sticks out to us, however, is that the Raiders have been home for two games and have allowed 33 points against in each. In fact, the Raiders have allowed a league worst average of 445 yards against. Nobody is talking about that. The market sees a great effort and comeback last week against Baltimore. To entice bettors even more, the oddsmakers have added that “hook” on a key number (3). We say, “Buyer beware”.
SEATTLE -14½ over Chicago
The Bears were hoping for a strong start after the schedule came out and they got two of their toughest opponents – Green Bay and Arizona – at home. Chicago had a perfect game plan for Green Bay. The Packers offense had just four series through three quarters thanks to impressive ball control by the Bears but Chicago still lost. In Week 2, the Bears gave up 48 points at home to the Cardinals. That’s the real Bears’ squad. Now Jimmy Clausen, the proud owner of half a skull, gets the call. The Bears play with the same amount of urgency that Adam Sandler puts into his film roles. Don’t be surprised to see Clausen just amble out onto the field in cargo shorts and demand to hand the ball off to Rob Schneider. The Bears offense is a joke but that’s not the worst of it. The Bears defense is air. You can go right through it, as a ghost would a wall. They are not there.
Last year the Bears were crumbling under “QB guru” Marc Trestman. Turns out that hiring a lame CFL coach isn’t the unorthodox masterstroke the Bears thought it was so this year they turned to John Fox. You all know John Fox. He’s the guy that had Peyton Manning as his QB and screwed that up. Now he has Jimmy Clausen. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 29½ points over UMass this week in college football. This is a bigger mismatch. If the Irish are 30, then the Seahawks should be 45.
The Seahawks are hungry. They are 0-2 and they’re in a foul mood. That freak Pete Carroll has no mercy on anyone. If the score is 48-0, he’ll run the two minute drill like he’s losing. A focused Seahawks’ team could not have handpicked a riper opponent. An opponent that is lazy, flat and uninspired. Pencil us in.
San Diego +116 over MINNESOTA
We played against the Vikings last week and probably should have known better to not trust the Lions on the road after they blew a 21-3 lead against these Chargers in Week 1. Coincidentally, both these teams have something in common this year in that they both played the Lions and won. Still, the Chargers other game was on the road in Cinci while the Vikes other game was in San Fran. San Diego has played well in two games, holding Cinci to just 24 points. The 28 points the Chargers allowed to Detroit is a bit misleading, as a couple of SD turnovers led directly to 14 points. Philip Rivers is hitting his targets. He already has thrown four TD’s while passing for nearly 650 yards. River is completing 81% of his passes and has not thrown a pick.
This is the third straight week we’re fading the Vikes. We don’t like Teddy Bridgewater’s style and we don’t like the way his balls thrown wobble all over the place. The Vikes have been involved in two misleading scores thus far. In Week 1 in San Fran, Minnesota lost 20-3. That’s a flattering score, as the 49ers probably could have scored twice that. In fact, San Fran outgained the Vikes by 160 yards and had 25 first downs. In Week 2, the Vikes defeated the Lions 26-16 but the Lions had more first downs and turned the ball over three times. The Vikes won because they were able to run the ball and because a couple of Lions fumbles landed in their hands while their own fumbles landed in their hands also. (A.P. lost one of his two fumbles on the Lions' 11-yard line, but managed to recover the other one, and had a third fumble on the goal line nullified because of an offside penalty that kept the Lions from taking the ball). Teddy Bridgewater had a mere 151 yards last week. From where we sit, San Diego is superior in every way. It’s highly unlikely that the Vikes are going to be able to pile up rushing yards on the Bolts like they did against the Lions. It’s also highly unlikely that Bridgewater has a good game. We’ve seen the Vikes play two weak opponents and get overwhelmed against one. We’re not even sure they were the better team against Detroit either. Just a few stops by the Bolts defense figures to be enough against a Vikes offense that can easily be contained and that can run into serious trouble. We also like San Diego's mentality in the first two weeks. Combine it all and it’s enough to step in.
Indianapolis -3½ over TENNESSEE
Betting or fading the teams that played on Sunday and Monday nights is rarely a bad idea. We cannot overstate enough how much exposure those four teams get and how there is always a reaction. This week’s donkey is the Indianapolis Colts, a team that was supposed to put up as many points as the Eagles and cruise to an easy division win and a good chance to play in the Super Bowl. Indy’s Week 1 loss to Buffalo alarmed nobody, as the Bills were pegged as a strong team that could be very difficult to beat this year and besides, that game was at the Ralph, where Buffalo always plays tough. The betting world was all primed to see Indy respond against the New York Jets on Monday. Respond they did by looking worse. The Colts couldn’t move five yards in the first half while Andrew Luck was getting pressured all night. Now the Colts are the #32 scoring team in the NFL and everyone is jumping off. We jumped off them last week (actually we were never on that wagon anyway) but are happy to jump on them this week. You see, in the NFL, as we like to say, the best time to jump on is when everyone is jumping off. This line is a serious overreaction to Indy losing at home to the Jets in front of millions of viewers. Let us remind you that the Colts played Tennessee twice last year. In the first game, Indy was a 7½-point choice and won 41-17. In the second game in Tennessee, the Colts were once again a 7½-point choice in the final game of the season. Indy was playing for nothing, as they had the Division locked up, yet they still were a 7½-point choice and won 27-10.
Is there really that much difference between these two from last year to this year? We think not. The Colts are pretty much the exact same team with more offensive weapons while the Titans are a nothing team with a rookie QB. Again, the Colts were a 7½-point choice both games last year and when it counted most they destroyed the Titans by 24 points. Now off to a 0-2 start and being seen as dregs on Monday Night Football, the Colts are just 3½-points here. That’s an underlay. Andrew Luck is not having a pleasant week. He’s already being bombarded by the media to explain what is wrong. Luck is a gamer. He has the “it” factor along with his talents. He wants to win and he doesn’t just talk the talk. Luck talks with his performance and there hasn’t been a week in his career that calls for a better performance than this upcoming week. We’ve been down on the Colts for two years, citing them as one of the most overvalued teams in the NFL. For the first time in two years, the Colts are underpriced based on one performance. This Indianapolis team is great at one thing. That one thing is that they beat up on weak teams. The Titans will likely feel the wrath of Indy’s frustrations here.
HOUSTON -6½ over Tampa Bay
6½ is not typically a number we like to lay because it’s one of those numbers (like 2½) that often appear appealing when taking a favorite. However, we’re going to make an exception here because Houston’s stock is low, very low. The Texans have stunk it up in both weeks so far. In Week 1 against K.C., they fell behind by a crooked score early and never recovered and last week in Carolina, they never had a lead and lost by seven, 24-17. In both games, the Texans scored a late garbage TD when they were down 14 to make it look a lot more respectable that it was. Texas has not been close in two weeks and the entire betting world knows it. Now they’re being asked to spot 6½-points to a team that won as a 10-point pooch last week.
If you hadn’t noticed the Buccaneers before last week, we’re pretty sure you all took notice after Week 2, especially if you’re still alive in a Survivor Pool. We’d even go out on a limb and suggest that this take-back on the Bucs may have stuck out when you first glanced at this week’s lines. So, this is one of those classic buy low, sell high scenarios. One would likely have a hard time finding someone in love with this favorite. Tampa went into New Orleans last week and went wire to wire with #1 draft pick Jameis Winston being efficient and not throwing a pick. We put no weight on that victory. The Saints were downright awful. New Orleans was dropping easy passes and fumbling at key times. It was a shameful performance. Houston won’t be as accommodating. The Texans are in a foul mood. Their season could end after Week 3 should they lose this one. They will come in hungry as a pack of wolves and chomping to get at Winston. We’ve seen Winston perform when the heat is on and it’s not a pretty sight. Pressure Winston and he’ll make big mistakes and he’ll make the same ones over and over. The Texans are 0-2 but their rushing defense has been solid, which is another key here. Don't let Tampa's 26-19 victory over New Orleans last week make you forget the 42 points that Tennessee dropped on the Buccaneers in Week 1. Last week in their win, the Bucs had less first downs than the Saints, they still turned the ball over twice and Winston had under 200 yards passing. Tampa won last week because the Saints were more putrid than they were. Plug your nose and play the chalk.
Teddy Covers
Atlanta vs. Dallas
Play: Under 44.5
The Dallas Cowboys are the antithesis of the up-tempo offensive approach to the 2015 NFL. Through their first two games, Dallas has averaged an offensive snap every 32.8 seconds, ranked #31 in the NFL in pace ratings. They ranked dead last in the NFL in pace last year. This is not a team primed to push the tempo, regardless of circumstances, which makes perfect sense. The Cowboys starters are as good as any in the NFL, but they lack quality depth at numerous positions due to their salary cap limitations. So it makes perfect sense for Dallas to try to protect those starters as much as possible. Running fewer plays does that, especially over the course of a full season.
But, as we all know, the Cowboys are riddled with high profile offensive injuries right now. Tony Romo is out for a couple of months, leading receiver Dez Bryant is out, and tight end Jason Witten is very questionable to suit up here. That leaves Brandon Weeden behind center and the likes of Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley as his primary downfield weapons. But the Cowboys offensive line is full healthy and still an elite level unit. Atlanta’s run defense is a long way from being elite. We can expect a slow paced, methodical, ‘three yards and a cloud of dust’ look from the Cowboys offense this week, with lots of Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden between the tackles. That’s no recipe for an Over!
The Falcons are 2-0 to the Under this year, thanks to a defense that has been better than projected and an offense that has lacked consistency. We’ve seen this Cowboys defense control the line of scrimmage against both the Giants and Eagles, and their secondary has been extraordinary at avoiding big plays. That’s bad news for the Matt Ryan/Julio Jones duo. Their big play weapon at RB, speedster Tevin Coleman, has already been ruled out this week, and the receiving corps other than Jones has looked rather limited thusfar. Look for a slow pace throughout and big plays on offense to be few and far between, setting the stage for what should be a low scoring affair.