DAVE COKIN
49ERS VS CARDINALS
PLAY: 49ERS +6.5
This game caught my attention as soon as the true opener was posted at the start of the week. The Cardinals were sent out at -6.5 and that line has held all week.
The reason it caught my eye was that it was a game where I knew without question where the action would be, both in terms of ticket count and dollars. Sure enough, with most of my personal precincts reporting, it’s lopsided on the Arizona side. Just to quote figures from one of the big Nevada books, they’re currently at 82% Cardinals on the ticket count and a whopping 90% Cardinals on the dollars.
For me, this game is all about assessing that number. The books could have easily made this -7, but instead they shaded it below that key number. But they didn’t, instead choosing to hang up -6.5 with the full knowledge that the players would be firing with both fists on the favorite.
This is not to suggest that the squares never win these bets, but they don’t more often than not. The bookies are sharper than the players, period. On any one game, it’s random, but long term, it sure isn’t.
Aside from the opinion on the betting line, I also think this number is a shade on the high side. My figures produced Cardinals -5.5. So I’m also catching a little bit the best of it on value, at least based on the data I use to make a true line.
Put together the line read and my figures and this is a pretty easy decision for me. The result might not be as any game can go any way. But I’ll take my chances with the 49ers plus the points in this game.
Don Anthony
Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Dallas Cowboys +2
I think it's safe to say that everyone and their mother is going to line up at the window to bet the Atlanta Falcons. It seems way too easy to take Atlanta here, basically to just win the game. Vegas isn't stupid and they don't like giving money away. I believe this a huge trap. I am aware of all the injuries to Dallas, but typically in sports when a superstar goes down, the next game the team rises up and gives a very solid effort the next game. As long as Weeden doesn't make too many mistakes and takes care of the ball, Dallas has a very good chance to pull the upset at home.
Bill Biles
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans
Play: Houston Texans -6.5
In the NFL it is tough to win back to back games and that is what the Bucs are trying to do. The Texans have not looked good early on in the season, but the Bucs are the easier team they have played so far. JJ Watt and the defensive front of the Texans should cause problems for Rookie Winston and he will make some mistakes.
Bryan Leonard
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +3
Must win situation for the Ravens who are 0-2 and have to travel to Pittsburgh Thursday. What do all teams in must win situations have in common? They didn't win when they needed to. So why should we trust the Ravens here who are only 1-4 SU & ATS against the Bengals with the lone win coming in overtime? Cincinnati is the better team getting points here and we can't resist that situation.
Rob Vinciletti
Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Chicago Bears +15
Seattle may win by 10 points here but 0-2 road dogs taking 12.5 or more points are 19-5 to the spread since 1977. Chicago will not have Qb Cutler here which is part of the reason why they are taking this many points. They should stay in this game throughout as Seattle has trouble with consistency on offense and psychologically may take this one for granted as such a heavy favorite. Tight Jimmy Graham is not happy with the amount of targets going his way either. Seattle is strong on defense but has not played well thus far on that side of the ball. They get Chancellor back for this one but he may be a few weeks away from his best play. Chicago should give a much better showing here after two bad losses so we will take the points.
Marc Lawrence
San Diego Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Minnesota Vikings -1
Edges - Vikings: 7-1 ATS last nine non-conference games; and 11-3 ATS home off division home game. Chargers: QB Phillip Rivers 0-4 SUATS in his NFL career as a visitor in this series. With San Diego playing in a 10 AM body clock start for the 2nd week in a row, we recommend a 1-unit play on Minnesota.
Steve Williams
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Arizona Cardinals -6½
Arizona has turned into a real tough team and place to play under HC Bruce Arians. QB Palmer appears set to play. Which is good for Cardinals backers. They are 15-2 SU in Palmer's last 17 starts. Remember Cardinals were 9-1 last year and then Palmer tore his ACL. Going 2-4 their last 6 to finish behind Seattle in the NFC West.
San Francisco won their first game over the Vikings and then got pummeled by the Steelers. They got physically beat up by Pittsburgh now head to the desert. 49er's had dominated this series til 2013. Now Arizona is on the uptick and San Fran is trying to recover after player and coach losses.
As long as Palmer stays upright and in the game we see Arizona pulling away as their depth and talent overwhelms the Niners. Cardinals are 10-3-1 ATS after Saints win. Look for Palmer and the offense to dominate a suspect Niner defense.
Matt Fargo
San Diego Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: San Diego Chargers +2
I think the wrong team is favored here so we are getting points with the better team. San Diego is playing its second straight road game following a loss in Cincinnati but look for a bounce back here. The Chargers offense has been playing at a high level so far as they are averaging 418.5 ypg which is good for third best in the league. The Vikings got into the win column over Detroit but it wasn't a great effort as they were aided by an injured Matthew Stafford. The defense is typically a stout unit but Minnesota is allowing 359 ypg through the first two contests which is not a good thing considering the offense is putting up a mere 299 ypg. Adrian Peterson was the star last week and while Teddy Bridgewater is completing 74 percent of his passes, there is not much production to go along with it. Conversely, Philip Rivers has average 305.5 ypg through the air on a spectacular 80.9 percent completion rate. He is seventh in the league in passer rating as well. The best news for San Diego is playing 1:00 ET games is difficult for west coast teams but they played one last week so the acclimation will be a benefit here. The Chargers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and will definitely see an improvement this week.
Jimmy Boyd
St Louis Rams +2
I think the situation here presents some nice value with the Rams as a 1-point home dog. St. Louis was impressive at home in an outright 34-31 win over the Seahawks as 3.5-point dog in Week 1. The Rams then laid an egg on the road at Washington in Week 2, losing 10-24 as a 3-point road favorite. '
The public was on St. Louis in that game and will have a tough time backing them here after that performance. I personally wasn't surprised to see them suffer a letdown given how big a win that was over Seattle and Washington has looked impressive so far, at least compared to what they were suppose to be coming into the season.
I expect the public to be all over Pittsburgh in this one, as they are coming in off a 43-18 blowout win at home against the 49ers and will be getting back star running back Le'Veon Bell after he was suspended for the first 2 games. The thing to keep in mind with the Steelers easy win over San Francisco, is the situation was heavily favored for Pittsburgh. The Steelers had 3 extra days of rest/preparation after playing the opener on Thursday Night Football. San Francisco on the other hand had 1-less day than normal to prepare/recover after playing on Monday Night Football, plus they were in the difficult spot with a west coast team traveling east for an early start time.
While both teams come into this game off normal rest, Pittsburgh is going to have a hard time not looking ahead to next weeks game against Baltimore, which will be on Thursday Night Football. That's a huge division rivalry and with how competitive the AFC North looks to be with Cincinnati also in the mix, that's a much bigger game than this week's game against the Rams. I think St Louis is going to be the more focused and motivated team, plus they along with most teams, are much better at home.
The key here is the Rams defense and all the talent they have up front. They don't just have guys who can put pressure on Ben Roethlisberger, but the size and strength to bring him to the ground. I think St Louis is going to give this Pittsburgh offense a lot of trouble. On the flip side of this, I think the Rams offense is going to be able to spread out the Steelers defensively and move the ball both through the air and on the ground, similar to what we saw the Patriots do in Week 1.
There's a nice system in play that backs a fade on the Steelers. Road favorites who are coming off a home blowout win by 21 or more points in the first month of the season and are playing an opponent who scored 3 or fewer points in the first half of their last game are just 12-36 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 75% system in favor of the Rams to cover the number, which in this case means win outright.
Brandon Lee
San Diego Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Minnesota Vikings -1
I still think we are seeing the Vikings undervalued due to that ugly loss against the 49ers on Monday Night Football in Week 1. That was a bad matchup for Minnesota and they clearly didn't give San Francisco the respect they deserved, as they were outplayed on both sides of the ball. The Vikings responded with a 26-16 home win over the Lions, behind a big game from Adrian Peterson and a strong showing from the defense. I expect a similar outcome against the Chargers. Peterson should be in line for another big day against this San Diego defense, which awful against he run last year and not much better so far in 2015. While the Chargers only allowed 69 yards on the ground in Week 1 against the Lions, that was because Detroit only ran it 16 times. Their poor run defense showed it's ugly head in Week 2 against the Bengals, as they allowed 175 yards on 36 attempts. I've really been impressed with Bridgewater going back to the end of last season. Vikings have won 5 of 6 at home with the only loss coming by 3-points to Green Bay. Too much value to pass up with Minnesota laying less than a field goal at home.
ASA
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. St Louis Rams
Play: St Louis Rams +2
Today we play on the Rams at home over the Steelers. Contrasting results from last week give us great value this Sunday. The Steelers are off a home win over the 49ers in which they put up 43 points and the public took notice. The Rams on the other hand suffered a letdown last week when they traveled to Washington after a huge home win against Seattle the week before and played miserably. The Rams defense isn't as bad as it showed against the Redskins when they allowed over 180 rushing yards. In the season opener at home this St Louis D held the Seahawks running backs to under 100 yards rushing which is the unit we expect to see today against the Steelers. The Steelers are on a losing 12-22 ATS streak on the road right now and just 4-11 ATS their last 15 as a road chalk. Rams head coach Jeff Fischer has excelled as an 'underdog' coach by covering nearly 60% of the time when getting points. Yes, the Steelers get RB Bell back this week and have QB Big Ben and WR Brown and will score points but their secondary might be the worst in the NFL and the Rams offense is capable of trading points in this situation. Play contrarian..
Michael Alexander
Philadelphia Eagles vs. NY Jets
Play: NY Jets -1
The Eagles never looked as horrible last week, playing lackluster and disjointed during Kelly’s first 34 games as they did during their home loss to the Cowboys. Philadelphia’s ground game is horrible right now and the Jets are tough to run on. Off season acquisition DeMarco Murray has gained only 11 yards rushing on 21 carries. Sam Bradford hasn’t helped with his inconsistency and missing open receivers. The Eagles’ linebacker depth may have taken a huge hit, too, with injuries to Mychal Kendricks and Kiko Alonso.
Will Rogers
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots -13½
The New England Patriots have been an offensive juggernaut through the first two weeks, scoring at will against Pittsburgh an Buffalo. They host an improved Jacksonville team here this week, and I expect to see another blowout for win for the defending champions.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Tom Brady - He's silenced all critics by throwing for 754 yards with seven TDs and no INTs in wins over the Steelers and Bills. More than half of his touchdown passes have gone to Rob Gronkowski, who looks unstoppable so far with 207 yards and four TDs.
2. Previous History - The Jaguars are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games during the month of September, and they were 0-8 on the road in 2014.
3.X-Factor - Jacksonville has traveled to New England four times since 2003, losing all four games by an average margin of 19.5 points.
Heath Mac
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +14½
Yes this is the Jags against the dominant Pats and yes the Pats are the far superior team. This is not college football though, this is the NFL and the Jags are full of young talent. While blow outs do happen in the NFL, the quickest way to go broke is relying on blowouts in order to cover. The Pats will win this game and most likely comfortably, but to be giving up more than 2 TDs on the spread is a tough ask, especially late in the game when they have lost interest.
Chip Chirimbes
Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Cleveland Browns -3
The Oakland Raiders did something rare last week (for them) as they played a full 60-minutes and came away with an outright win. This week they travel to Cleveland for their first road contest of the season and that doesn't bode well for them as they are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up win. The fact that they have surrendered 653 yards through the air and haven't registered a sack in two games won't help their cause even with Josh McCown back leading the Browns attack.