AC Dinero
Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Detroit Lions +3
Denver comes in 2-0 off a miracle win at rival KC last week. The defense is very good, and manning showed glimpses of the old Peyton in the 2nd half of that game. But can he keep it up? Especially behind an iffy OL with 3 new starters? Detroit's season may be on the line as they have startered out 0-2. Their OL has issues as well, but their defense is pretty good too. I'll fade a non confernce road favorite coming off a road division win agaisnt a team desperate for a win
Cajun Sports
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots -13.5
PLAY 3* New England Patriots -13.5 One of the early NFL kicks on Sunday feature the Jacksonville Jaguars traveling north to New England to take on the hometown Patriots. The oddsmakers have of course made the host Patriots double-digit favorites over the Jaguars. Even though we seldom like laying heavy chalk in any sport we will lay the digits here with support from one of our NFL systems. The system tells us to play ON an NFL conference home favorite of 10 to 17 points prior to a BYE, a non-division game following their bye week and as long as they did not play last Monday night. These heavy favorites have cashed the winning ticket at a rate of 20-5 ATS for 80 percent winners.
Jim Feist
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets
Pick: New York Jets
Philadelphia opened as the favorite despite a lousy rebuilding defense. The Eagles are 5-16-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. This is a bad matchup for the finesse Eagles, against a dynamite New York Jets defense that plays a punishing style at the line of scrimmage. The Jets (5-0 ATS run) have upgraded their offensive playmakers and have a better QB than last season. The wrong team opened as the favorite. And the Jets are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Jack Jones
Pittsburgh Steelers -1
Look out for the Steelers now. They managed to get through the first two weeks of the season at 1-1 without their stud running back in Le’Veon Bell. But now arguably the best back in the league returns from his 2-game suspension with fresh legs and ready to pick up where he left off last year. The good news is that the Steelers have found a diamond in the rough of their own in De’Angelo Williams to be able to spell Bell when needed.
Pittsburgh arguably outplayed New England in the opener. It outgained the Patriots by 103 total yards despite losing 21-28. There’s no arguing that the Steelers throughly put it on the 49ers last week in their 43-18 victory. That’s the same San Francisco team that had beaten Minnesota 20-3 at home in Week 1.
Ben Roethlisberger has picked up right where he left off last season when he led the NFL in passing yards. He is completing 72.3 percent of his passes for 720 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. Williams has rushed for 204 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 5.0 per carry. Antonio Brown is the best receiver in the NFL, catching 18 balls for 328 yards and two touchdowns already.
The Rams are certainly an improved team this season, but their defense clearly isn’t as good as everyone was anticipating. They have given up an average of 27.5 points per game already, and it’s not like they have played elite offenses in Seattle and Washington. They were thoroughly dominated in their 10-24 loss to the Redskins last week, getting outgained by a whopping 160 total yards.
I just don’t believe the Rams will have the firepower to match Roethlisberger, Brown, Bell and company. They managed a woeful 213 total yards against the Redskins last week. Nick Foles completed just 17 of 32 passes for 150 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He just does not have the playmakers outside, and he’s no more than an average quarterback. It doesn’t help that Todd Gurley is still out with a knee injury, and top WR Brian Quick is questionable with a shoulder ailment.
Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses are 51-21 (70.8%) ATS since 1983. The Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Rams are 15-36-2 ATS in their last 53 games in September.
Freddy Wills
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: New Orleans Saints +10
The Saints go from being 10 point favorites last week to 10 point under dogs in the span of a week against comparable competition? This is also a division game, so I expect it to be competitive even without Drew Brees. Cam Newton is not a good QB despite the Panthers being 2-0 they are very lucky in who they've played and again they are playing the Saints at the right time, but I would not be surprised if they have issues here today. I think this is the one game the Saints defense could have success seeing as the Panthers offensive line is in shambles. Bottom line the Carolina Panthers have no business laying this type of number and definitely not in their own division. It's not the sexiest pick in the world, but take the Saints +10.
Scott Spreitzer
Falcons vs. Cowboys
Play: Under 44
The Atlanta Falcons are playing a better brand of defense under Dan Quinn than they were under their previous regime, but are still in need of improvement. I believe the defense is getting "just what the doctor ordered" in the game plan they're likely to see against the banged-up Dallas offense. Brandon Weeden takes over for the injured Tony Romo. Weeden won't have Dez Bryant and they're a little banged-up at TE, although Witten is expected to play. I suspect we'll see a ground ruled attack by the Cowboys as they attempt to allow Weeden to manage the game, rather than having to make big plays to win it. The Falcon offense has been a little shaky. Atlanta scored a grand total of just 16 points over the final two quarters in week one and the first three quarters in week two, before the NY Giants began making mistake after mistake, allowing the Falcons to score 14 points in the final 12 minutes of action. ATL has been one dimensional, unable to run the football. It's hard to imagine they'll find the "sweet elixir" against a Dallas defense, ranked 9th against the pass and 1st against the run. Atlanta enters on a 5-0 Under run, overall, while the Cowboys are on a 4-1-1 Under run at home.
Joseph D'Amico
San Diego Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: San Diego Chargers +1
Minny hasn't gone up against a passing offense of the caliber they will see here facing San Diego. Philip Rivers and the 4th ranked aerial assault is loaded with talented receivers and now have a running game to compliment that with RB, Melvin Gordon. Not to mention the array of contributions Danny Woodhead provides. I know AP slashed the Chargers back in 2007 for a single game rushing record. The RB went from just 10 attempts and 31 YR 2 weeks ago up to 29 carries for 134 yards last week. But that was against a Detroit stop-unit that lost their 2 best defenders in the off-season. Looking closely, we see that QB, Teddy Bridgewater, despite a 74.6% CR, has only passed for 384 yards. So, SD can key on Peterson and slow the runner down. Rivers has a slew of big, fast, dangerous receivers to balanced out their ground game. The 'Dog in the series is 4-0 ATS he L4 meetings.
Tony George
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Buffalo Bills +3
Wow, a team with 2 TDs the entire regular season is laying points in the NFL. A Crazy week in the NFL as far as some very tricked out lines, including an 0-2 team laying 15 points, but lets stick with this line and game for a free NFL Play. This looks like an easy take on Miami this week after a debacle at Jacksonville last week laying less than a field goal, but I saw some real issues with Miami in that game and I think Rex Ryan and the Bills will expose them. And of course that would be the war in the trenches. Buffalo had a huge build up to the Pats game last week and got beat up, although they did try and make a comeback late, they were flat out beat by one of the AFC’s best, so be it. It is Buffalo in this game that has the weapons and mobile QB that is a huge threat to Miami’s vaunted defense which I have yet to see any shock and awe, and with QB Taylor being unpredictable and using his legs it opens up a lot of options with Harvin, Watkins and Wood not to mention McCoy at RB. Bear in mind that Suh for Miami was ignoring the defensive coordinators play calls during the game and went rouge, and that is a sign of dissension and lack of chemistry. Miami’s offensive line gave way to Jax last week in a big way and Tannehill was running for his life, so what do you think a pissed off Bills defense who was shredded last week is going to do? Miami has no business laying points with their anemic offense production and I am all over the Bills as a small pup here to win outright.
Big Al
White Sox vs. Yankees
Pick: Yankees
Regardless of what happens this season and whether or not the Yankees catch the Blue Jays, rookie RH Luis Severino has shown that he should be a force in pinstripes for some time to come. As the consensus #1 pitching prospect for the Yanks, Severino had some lofty expectations when he was called up at the beginning of August and so far the 21-year-old has not disappointed. Severino is 4-3 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in nine starts so far and with all of the pitching injuries the Yankees have had to endure lately, Severino has had to perform in some very important games, including his last start in Toronto last Tuesday. He didn't get the win in that won, but he pitched well enough for the Yanks to get the win thereby keeping their slim AL East title hopes alive. He should have an easier time of it this afternoon at home in his first career start against the White Sox. Severino is 4-1 with one no-decision in his last six starts and the Yankees are 5-1 in those. After New York's win on Saturday, the White Sox are 2-9 in the last 11 meetings and 8-25 in the last 33 in the Bronx.
Bruce Marshall
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Atlanta Falcons
The clouds have suddenly parted for the Falcons, with a favorable early-season schedule that has now unfurled in front of them like a magic carpet. Now they catch Dallas now minus both Dez Bryant and Tony Romo, and we have seen how the Cowboy "O" has looked in the recent past with Brandon Weeden at QB. With a pair of gutty wins, Atlanta seems to be responding positively to new HC Dan Quinn, and the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones combo has been the NFL's most-lethal the past two weeks. Not too late to get on the Falcon bandwagon, which is gaining momentum.
Mr Vegas
Buffalo at Miami
Play: Buffalo
Folks have been raving about Miami and QB Ryan Tannehill the last few years, but what has this offense done? They gave him WR Mike Wallace and it all blew up after one year, with Wallace getting run out of town. The offensive line has been lousy the last 3 years and is still a big question mark, ranked 30th in rushing. The secondary still is a weak spot and even the run defense has been awful allowing 142 yards rushing per game. The Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, 1-6 ATS overall. Buffalo has a talented defense and the Bills are on a 6-2 ATS run, 4-0 ATS after a loss.
Jeff Saad
Eagles at Jets
Play: Jets
Philadelphia opened as the favorite despite a lousy rebuilding defense. The Eagles are 5-16-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. This is a bad matchup for the finesse Eagles, against a dynamite New York Jets defense that plays a punishing style at the line of scrimmage. The Jets (5-0 ATS run) have upgraded their offensive playmakers and have a better QB than last season. The wrong team opened as the favorite. And the Jets are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
River City Sharps
Arizona Cardinals -6.5
The Arizona Cardinals definitely look like a different team with Carson Palmer running the offense and they hope for more of the same Sunday when the San Francisco 49ers come to town. Palmer is an amazing 15-2 SU in his last 17 starts and coming off another fantastic performance where he threw for four TD’s in the Cardinals road rout of the Chicago Bears. One of the main constants with this new look Cardinal team under HC Bruce Ariens has been their high level of play at home. These Cardinals have also been kind to their betting supporters at home, going 9-2-1 ATS over their last 12 home games. Really, since Ariens has been their coach, they have been a covering machine. Ariens is 14-4 ATS in the role of favorite and 18-5 against the number at home. This Niners team produced a bit of fool’s gold when they easily defeated the Vikings to open their 2015 campaign. The truth is that we recommended in the preseason that clients play the 49ers TT Win Under 7 wins and we are absolutely sticking with that play. This is really not a very good 49ers team, mainly because Kapernick has regressed at the QB position and he now has less weapons around him. Getting the Cardinals at less than a TD is a gift and we’ll take that all the way to the bank…We love this one as we try and keep a tremendous roll going! The Sharps have hit 73% in the NFL through the first two weeks!
Vegas Butcher
OAK @ CLE -3.5
The Raiders are coming off an upset win at home where they defeated a team that many people have/are expecting to be very good this season (Ravens). Now they get to go on the road and play in the 1 PM EST time slot. This reminds me a bit when the 49ers won in week 1 as a home underdog, traveled to Pittsburgh in week 2 to play in the 1 PM EST time-slot, and got absolutely destroyed. Of course the Browns aren’t the Steelers. Pittsburgh is excellent offensively but really bad on the defensive end. Browns are stronger on D but horrible offensively. The fact that this line is above a FG’s is pretty revealing. Bookmakers expect a tough game for the Raiders here and I agree. Of course backing McCown (the worst QB in the league last year) and expecting his team to cover over a FG is probably a losing long-term proposition also. Very good number by Vegas in this one and it’s a very easy pass for me. PASS
TB @ HOU -6.5
Here’s another game where the line makes you think. So far this season Houston has truly looked like one of the worst teams in the league, yet they’re almost a TD favorite in a game? Why? Well, though they haven’t played all that well and have already shuffled their starting QB’s, they’ve only lost by a TD to both KC and CAR so far this season, both above average teams. Now they’ll take on a Bucs squad that is coming off a huge upset win on the road. Of course we have to be mindful here that Tampa’s win came against a horrible Saints team with a clearly injured Brees. Let’s not forget that the Bucs got shredded 42-14 in week 1 by a mediocre Titans squad. The reason this line is so large is because I think Tampa will have a very tough time moving the ball. Their O-line ranks as 3rd worst with an ASR (Adjusted Sack Rate) of 11% and Watt, Clowney, and Co. should be able to put pressure on Winston all game. Speaking of Winston, he is a turnover prone QB who has already thrown 2 INT’s and registered 3 fumbles (not all of them lost) through 2 games. He’s a big TO waiting to happen. Bucs will be without Austin Seferian-Jenkins (out 4-6 weeks) a big TE who was a bit part of the game-plan in the first two weeks of the season. Mike Evans better get fully healthy quickly (3 targets, no catches on 61% of the snaps in week 2) as Bucs will need to utilize every pass-catcher available. Texans are in a desperation mode sitting at 0-2, and a loss to Tampa at home will pretty much be a ‘nail in the coffin’ on this season. It starts and ends with a D for Houston, and I would expect to see this unit step up enough to carry Texans to a convincing win. Lean: HOU -6.5
PIT @ STL -1
Before everyone runs out (everyone already is as 85% of bets are on PIT so far) and bets the house on the Steelers, let’s stop and think real quick. The spread posted by the bookmakers is -1 Rams (Pinnacle). Is this a “gift” or will we truly see a close game here? What’s interesting is that back in June when the spreads for all the games came out, the Rams were also listed as -1 home favorites in this matchup. Basically Pittsburgh’s performance the last few weeks hasn’t changed the mind of the bookmakers. For what’s it worth, based off last year’s stats my model has this game at 23-23 so pretty much at “Pick ‘em”. Keep in mind that Pittsburgh has a home game against Baltimore on TNF coming up, which could be a bit of a ‘look ahead’ spot for them. They’re coming off a comfortable win at home against the Niners and if their focus level isn’t at 100% on Sunday, they will most likely lose the game. Let’s remember that St Louis has one of the most talented defensive lines in all of football. They got embarrassed last week when Washington ran all over them and I’d expect a stronger effort at home this week. Bell is back for Pittsburgh, but they’ll still be without Martavis Bryant (big play guy) and of course Pouncey (returns week 12). On the other side, let’s not forget that Pittsburgh is one of the worst pass-defenses in the league. Rams don’t have an ‘elite’ personnel in the passing game but they have enough weapons to have success moving the ball via the air. In addition they’re expected to get Gurley back this week (all signs point to him suiting up) while Pittsburgh will be without Ryan Shazier (one of their better LB’s), allowing the Rams to potentially move the ball via the run as well. I think we will see a close game here, and though taking the ‘Rams’ would qualify as a so-called “sharp play”, I’m having a hard time leaning that way. Pittsburgh to me is a better team with an elite offense and a huge edge at QB. The spread is accurate though and I’ll be a spectator for this one as well. PASS
SD @ MIN -2
Last week the Vikings were -2 point home favorites against Detroit. San Diego beat the Lions 33-28 in week 1 in a big comeback win. Now the Vikings are -2 point home favorites against the Chargers. This tells me the spread is pretty accurate. The availability of DJ Fluker would be big for San Diego as their O-line is just not that good without him. He practiced on a limited basis this week and is listed as questionable. Both teams should be able to run the ball as neither of these defenses is very good defending the run. Both are better at defending the pass. I think whichever team minimizes TO’s will win this game as I expect a very close one. If the spread was listed at +3, I’d lean Rivers and the Chargers at that number, but of course the bookmakers have smartly listed it below a FG. This one could go either way IMO. PASS
ATL @ DAL +1
Preseason spread for this game was -5.5 DAL, so the 6.5 point shift tells you how valuable Romo and Bryant (mostly Romo) are to the ‘Boys. It’s Weeden time for Dallas and I don’t have to tell you that it’s a massive downgrade especially given the fact that Bryant is out and Witten is hobbled. Weeden is 5-16 in his career as a starter with a 56% completion %. He’s not a good player. With Cowboys’ run-game struggling (3.4 YPC) Weeden will have to be a significant contributor in this game for Dallas to win, so should we look to fade him? I think this is going to be a tough game for Dallas. The shock of losing Romo hasn’t worn off yet and I’m wondering if we’ll see a bit of a lackluster performance from this team following such a superior effort against Philly last week. Dallas’ corners aren’t nearly as good as they looked against the Eagles and Julio Jones is going to torch this secondary. In addition let’s not forget that Randy Gregory (injured) and Greg Hardy (suspended) are going to be out still. Without much pass-rush Ryan should have plenty of time in the pocket and Falcons will move the ball in this one. Overall it’s a bad psychological spot for the Cowboys and coming off a strong effort last week I expect a bit of let-down from the intensity level. Falcons have the advantages on the offensive end to win this game. Lean: ATL -1
IND @ TEN +3
Last season the Colts started the year 0-2, before going on the road to Jacksonville and blowing them out by 27 points. We have a similar scenario this year also, as the Colts are on the road against a weak divisional opponent after going 0-2 to start the year. Remember, Indy is 10-0 ATS in the last ten against the division while the Titans are 2-10 ATS at home in the last 12. Last year the Colts were -7 point road favorites in this matchup, and though the Titans are improved, so is Indy. I know Indy is dealing with some injures on D but Vontae Davis is going to play while Mathis is going to increase his snap-count after playing last week. A shut-down corner and a very good pass-rusher is enough to change the dynamic of a whole defense. At the same time I expect Luck to play better after two subpar performances so far. This is a classic ‘bounce-back’ spot for Indy and I think we’ll see a similar outcome as game 3 of last season as well. Lean: IND -3
JAX @ NE -13.5
The Patriots are off a big win @ Buffalo, a game they really went all out with creative offensive formations and excellent game plan. Will they take the Jags just as seriously? Probably not. Even so, this is a game that Brady and Co. should dominate even with ‘fully’ inflated footballs. Jacksonville is coming off a win themselves but the Pats are a different animal than the Dolphins. I think this is a blowout waiting to happen. Lean: NE -13.5
PHI @ NYJ -2
Let me list a few factors to consider for this game:
Eric Decker – out
Chris Ivory – out (technically questionable, but he sounds like he’s sitting)
Chris Owusu – out (Jets’ 3rd WR)
Sheldon Richardson – still suspended
Revis – will play but missed some practice time with a groin issue
Jets on a short week and play in London against Miami next week
These are some factors to consider if backing NY. But of course we also have to consider the other side. Philly can’t block while Jets have a stout front 4. Philly can’t throw with Bradford who looks very shaky, while the Jets have excellent corners in the secondary. Philly will be without KiKo Alonso, Cedric Thornton, and Mychal Kendricks which are huge losses for this D. After an effort this unit put together against Dallas last week and with all of these injuries, it’s hard to see them perform at a high level in this matchup. If the Jets were fully healthy, were not a short week, and didn’t have a big road-trip to London coming up, I think backing them at less than a FG would be an excellent proposition. But unfortunately these factors do loom over this game. Plus it’s interesting that before the season started the line was +2.5 Jets in this game. This one is another pass for me. PASS
CIN @ BAL -2.5
While the Ravens have looked as mediocre as possible in the first 2 weeks, Cincy has looked terrific so far. Of course they’ve played OAK and SD at home so it’s not like they’ve faced tough competition so far. Ravens have been on the road for both of their games and after getting beat up by Denver in week 1, their D really fell apart last week without Suggs. Can they regroup for a big divisional matchup this week in what could very well be a ‘must win’ scenario for the Ravens? Going down 0-3 and then traveling to Pittsburgh for a Thursday Night Game, could be an absolute disaster for this team with a 0-4 start a definite possibility. The problem though is that this is a really tough matchup. Baltimore’s offense devout of playmakers is going to have a tough time against Bengals’ D. Cincy ranks 9th in ASR, and 7th against the run and the pass. Their corners backs have been excellent so far and if they shut-down Steve Smith Sr., then I’m not sure how the Ravens will be able to move the ball in this one. On the other side you have a Cincy top-ranked O-line going up against a Baltimore D that struggles to get much pass-rush. Dalton has a ton of weapons at his disposal and should have plenty of time to deliver the ball in this matchup. As long as the Bengals play a TO-free game (Jeremy Hill must hold on to the ball) they should have a strong chance of winning this one. At the very least I believe they are the better team in this divisional matchup. The question to ask is how far can ‘desperation’ and ‘must win’ mentality carry the Ravens? Lean: CIN +2.5
NO @ CAR -8
Without Brees this line jumped from 3.5 to 8. Of course asking a team like the Panthers, who don’t have an explosive offense, to cover this many points is a tough task. It’s a divisional game, both squads know each other well, and I would expect a close game. Throw in the fact that Cotchery, Kuechly, and possibly Lotulelei, are out for the Panthers and this one is not as ‘automatic’ as it seems. Lean: NO +8
SF @ ARZ -6.5
A couple of things to consider here. The score was 24-19 as Arizona was ‘milking’ the clock at the of their week 1 game against New Orleans, as David Johnson took a short swing-pass for 55 yards for a TD. In week 2 the score was 21-14 before Cutler threw an pick-6 INT and got injured on the play. He was 8 for 9 up to that point with a 97 QBR (nearly perfect). My point is this. Arizona faced the two absolutely worst defenses in the league in the first two weeks, yet it’s not like they dominated the games from start to finish. The game against the Saints was very close to the end and the one against the Bears was also, until Cutler got hurt. Now this team will play a divisional opponent with a fairly high spread. Yes the Cardinals are a ‘better’ team, but divisional rivals tend to play each other close, as familiarity with one another often leads to close games. This number makes it unplayable game for me and an easy ‘pass’, but I wouldn’t be surprised if San Fran hangs around in this one. PASS
CHI @ SEA -14.5
The spread on this game indicates that not all ‘winless’ teams are created equally. With this being a home opener for Seattle and them sitting at 0-2, this is a big game for this squad. Bears are coming to town with a ton of injuries (Cutler, Jeffery) as well as the label as the worst team in football. Seahawks are getting Kam Chancellor back and their defense will receive a huge boost from this. This looks like a 20+ blowout win to me. Lean: SEA -14.5
BUF @ MIA -3
Branden Albert is doubtful (out), Lamar Miller has an ankle injury, and Buffalo Bills’ scary D-line is coming to town. You have to assume a bounce-back game for the Bills’ D after they couldn’t stop the Pats in week 2. Of course things will be much easier against Tannehill and Co. Buffalo won’t have to work hard to take away the run (Miami ranks 29th in run efficiency) so if they make Miami one-dimensional, they should have success putting a lot of pressure on Tannehill. The question is can Miami’s D do the same? There’s rumors that Suh is already disobedient and Miami’s play so far on the defensive end has been less than impressive. They failed to sack Bortless last week, which is all you need to know about this unit’s performance. If Taylor can manage the game and not turn the ball over, I think Bills should have a solid shot for an upset on the road. Of course if the coaching staff of the Dolphins can regroup and get their team to perform at the top level, Miami should do well…big ‘if’ of course. Lean: BUF +3
DEN @ DET +3
Denver has an elite….defense. Now that’s a shocker. After being dominant offensively the last few years, it’s the D that is carrying this team. Manning ranks as one of the worst QB’s in the league through 2 games (his QBR is terrible), the O-line is really bad, and the run-game has been non-existent. Of course going up against Detroit’s 23rd ranked D could be a cure. Denver should score some points here. The question is can Detroit keep up? Stafford is banged up already and going up against Denver’s #1 ranked D will be a challenge. Expect him to be pressured a ton here and if Denver’s elite secondary can contain Megatron, I doubt Stafford will have a good game. In addition Detroit’s O-line hasn’t been able to run-block well in the first 2 games so the run-game could suffer also. Keep in mind that Denver had 10-days to rest and prepare for this one so they should be the fresher of the two teams as well. Lean: DEN -3
No Limit Sports
Chicago vs. Seattle
Play: Chicago +14
Seattle has been struggling to score points this season and even with Chancellor back their defense will still be a little suspect. The Bears actually played the Packers tougher in week 1 than Seattle did last week. Also with Cutler out I actually think this may be an advantage for the Bears. I look for them to run a lot with Forte and run a lot of high % pass plays. Seattle should get the win but my numbers have them winning this one by 10 so grab the 14 points and make the safe play.