Bryan Leonard
Cincinnati at Baltimore
Play: Cincinnati
Must win situation for the Ravens who are 0-2 and have to travel to Pittsburgh Thursday. What do all teams in must win situations have in common? They didn't win when they needed to. So why should we trust the Ravens here who are only 1-4 SU & ATS against the Bengals with the lone win coming in overtime? Cincinnati is the better team getting points here and we can't resist that situation.
Tony Finn
Indianapolis at Tennessee
Play: Tennessee +3
Don't take last week's loss by Tennessee rookie quarterback Mariota to heart, not so deep you forget who he is and what he can be. Most important what came out of last week's loss to Cleveland and Johnny Football. The boxscore doesn’t tell the entire tale of the game as despite getting sacked seven times on the NFL road a week ago, Mariota still hasn't thrown a touchdown and for all intent and purpose, breaking down the game film, the Titans are not only the better team, with the better quarterback (Mariota vs. Johnny Football) they could have, should have, won that game on Lake Erie last Sunday.
As should be expected from a rookie quarterback, the good and the bad are often exaggerated. Consider the Titans opened the season with a 30-plus point cover followed that with a 15-plus point road loss, and it didn't take long for the Oregon Duck stud to come full NFL circle. In fact it happened fast for him that most. To win your professional debut so easily and one week later be humbled is good medicine for sports investors.
The Colts, and coach Pagano have made living beating up on division foes. In fact, if Andrew Luck and the Colts didn't play in the AFC South, they wouldn’t be who most believe they are. Pagano is 12-1 against the spread when facing division teams and the organization is a ridiculous 7-0 against the number as road favorites in division affairs. The bad news for the Colts is that this division now knows what needs to be done to take Luck to task, and that is attack their inept offensive front line of Indianapolis.
The Colts head to Nashville having won the last seven in this series, going 6-0-1 ATS. However, this is a bad bad sport for a team with little to zero confidence. The Colts are traveling on short rest, due to a short week, after being schooled by yet another non-league opponent, the Jets on Monday Night Football.
This is the Titans’ first home game, their 2015 season debut, and important to note it is Marcus Mariota's home debut in front a fan base that is ready to see the Titans record reflective of their talent.
Both of these organizations have leaky offensive lines but being the home team with this liability isn't nearly as grave as being the visitor in this situation.
NEWS ALERT: This Indianpolis Colts team has lived on division foes for three years and have been awarded a postseason schedule because of such. "The times they are a changin')
With.... or without guard Chance Wormack (knee injury) don't buy into the hype that this Tennessee team isn't ready to be the class of a weak AFC South. The 0-2 Colts traveling on short rest with a noise factor hurts Andrew Luck and his crew for the third straight week as they fall yet again to begin the season 0-3.
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Steelers and the Rams to tie one on in the Arch City, as these teams head Over the total.
As if it weren't enough Ben Roethlisberger has stated that the Steelers will be eschewing the extra-point in favor of the 2-point conversion, Pittsburgh has played Over the posted price in 7 of their last 8 games against the NFC. Included is last week's 43-18 scoring-fest against San Francisco.
St. Louis was held to just 10 points last week in their road loss at Washington, but they did land Over in their Week One game at home against Seattle to boost their home Over trend to 17-9 their last 26 played at the Edward Jones Dome.
Big Ben puts it in the end zone, and those 2-point conversion attempts get us to this total a little quicker this afternoon.
Steelers-Rams Over the total.
2* PITTSBURGH-ST. LOUIS OVER
Brad Wilton
The Saints look bad.
Drew Brees is sitting this one out with his shoulder injury, and the fact of the matter is the New Orleans defense still cannot get off the field when needed.
How does Rob Ryan still hold a job?
Now the Saints must head on the road to face a division-rival that has had their way with them.
Not only is Carolina off to a 2-0 straight up start to the season, but the Panthers have been able to win and cover 4 of the last 6 series meetings versus the Saints.
Carolina owns a 11-4-2 regular season home spread mark since 2013, while New Orleans stands at just 5-12-1 now against the spread since last season, and 3-5-1 in that span on the road.
Until I see some evidence that the visor-wearing Sean Payton has figured things out in the Big Easy, look for things to continue to be the big hard for the Saints.
Take the Panthers.
3* CAROLINA
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Dallas Cowboys plus the points at home over the Atlanta Falcons. At the time of this writing, the Cowboys are catching around one or 1 1/2 points in Vegas and offshore.
Yes, it's doom and gloom in Dallas these days because of the injuries to Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, among others. But I'm here to tell you, that's all the more reason to take Dallas.
Why not?
They can't get much worse in those categories and you know the rest of the players will be giving everything they have to make sure the "replacements" feel right at home and don't feel they have to completely fill the shoes of the departed players.
If you check Atlanta, you'll see that they're flying high after another big win last week to run their record to 2-0.
So even though neither of these teams feel like a post-season team, you will see the best the Cowboys have to offer, and they'll get the job done at home without Romo or Dez.
Take Dallas as your free play of the day.
3* DALLAS
Tony Stoffo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans
Play: Houston Texans -6
This years' No. 1 pick Jameis Winston will try to avoid one of the best defensive lines in the league when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Houston Texans on Sunday. Winston has been sacked seven times and lost a fumble in two games. Tampa Bay will need an improvement from a rushing attack that has produced only one touchdown and that was by QB Winston. That will not work for long in the NFL. The Bucs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
J.J. Watt, 2014 No. 1 pick Jadeveon Clowney and Vince Wilfork boaster the defense. Ryan Mallett is expected to get his second straight start after replacing Brian Hoyer. Houston sorely misses running back Arian Foster, who was out last week with a groin pull. As a result of limited rushing attack Mallett had 58 pass attempts to reach 244 yards against Carolina. The Buccaneers D is not to be confused with the Panther's. Look for Houston's defense to have Jameis on his heels and backside most of the day and give the offense short fields most of the day.
Doug Upstone
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +14
Play Against favorites like NEW ENGLAND who averaged 5.4 or more yards a play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. Basically what happens is it is difficult even for really good offenses to cover spreads off big offensive games and teams like the Patriots are just 7-26 ATS since 2011. Add in the Pats are 2-16 ATS when favored by 12 or more and this free play takes shape.
John Ryan
Philadelphia Eagles vs. NY Jets
Play: NY Jets -120
SIM shows a high probability that the Jets will win this game by 6 or more points. I am 10-0-1 ATS with my 35* Titans in the NFL and NCAAF combined this season. Yes, that is incredible run. I have doing this for 21 years and the dominant key is the discipline required to wager the same amount on each graded play produced by the algorithms. I encourage you to a subscription so that you will never miss any of my releases. I can't guarantee or promise that any given week will be a winning one. I can tell you that over the course of the season, you will build profits and the last 21 years' results speak for themselves.
Eagles are off to a horrid start and one of the worst that any fan could have ever imagined. The biggest problem is Bradford's lack of confidence in his progressions. He has stared down prime receiver and when forced to change, he has been very erratic and seems lost on many plays. He does not have the confidence to extend plays by rolling out or stepping up in the pocket. Now, this is not all his fault and perhaps only a small portion of the results are directly attributed to him alone.
The Eagles offensive line and specifically their guards have played extremely poor. Any quarterback that is getting pressured consistently up the middle is not going to have the confidence to scan the field. Further, the WR routes have been poor with bad angles and 'rounding' of cuts. The Eagles offense is designed to spread the defense and if they are unable to stretch the field vertically with long crossing routes, the overall offense will never take flight. It is unlikely given the strength of the Jets defense that the Eagles will be any different from the first two weeks.
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Eagles have been a money losing 3-19 ATS (-17.9 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; Jets are a rock solid 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt.
Dave Price
Atlanta Falcons -1
The Dallas Cowboys are without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. They are also missing several key players on defense. This game is going to be A squad versus D squad. The Cowboys have home-field advantage, but it won't be enough. The Falcons are the real deal this season and will make the playoffs by winning the NFC South. They have a franchise QB in Matt Ryan and an elite offense, and their D is vastly improved under the guidance of Dan Quinn, who was the Seattle defensive coordinator before taking this gig.
World Wide Sports
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -2.5
Cincinnati sits atop the AFC North and are one of nine undefeated teams. Andy Dalton passed for 214 yards and three touchdowns last week against the Chargers and RB Giovani Bernard gained 139 yards from scrimmage, 123 of those on the ground. TE Tyler Eifert has 13 receptions for 153 yards and three touchdowns, one short of New England's Rob Gronkowski for league leader. Dalton enters Week 3 as the only quarterback in the league who has started each of his team's first two games and has yet to be sacked or throw an interception. Expect the Ravens to turn up the heat today, as he has been know to make a few bad decisions under pressure. The Ravens have begun the season with two losses for the first time since 2005 and looks to avoid the first 0-3 start in franchise history. Baltimore was 26 seconds away from 1-1 before allowing a go-ahead touchdown en route to a 37-33 loss at Oakland last week. Joe Flacco has been nearly unbeatable at home in September, guiding the Ravens to a 13-1 record. The Ravens acquired cornerback Will Davis from Miami for a seventh-round pick in the 2016 draft, after giving up 351 yards through the air against Oakland. The Bengals have won three straight meetings with the Ravens but I can't see a fourth in this spot as Baltimore is 14-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.The favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings of these two divisional rivals.
Brady Kannon
San Francisco +6.5
There are some +7's out there but with juice, so it is essentially the same thing as buying a +6.5 up. I like having a key number but I truly don't think it will matter in the end.
San Francisco surprised a lot of people in their Monday Night opener but I did post them as a Free Play that night for the winner as I felt the line had swung too far and people were not giving The Niners enough credit. They looked like many thought they would in Week Two and I think now in Game Three, we are set up for a similar situation as we were in Game One.. the public perception is that The 49'ers are gawd awful but I believe the truth lies somewhere in between their performance in Week One and Week Two. When they beat Minnesota, The Vikings were a lot worse than I expected but in Week Two, The 49'ers were in a horrible scheduling spot, having to travel all the way back east on a short week, after playing Monday Night, to face a powerful offense that had extra time to prepare, having played the opener against The Patriots on the prior Thursday. So again, I think we are getting line value again this week due to the thrashing San Francisco took last week, coupled with Arizona's early season success, scoring on average, nearly 40-points per game.
But Arizona has played two of the weakest defenses in the league in New Orleans and Chicago and today they will face a division rival that has always been a very physical defensive unit. Just like last year when The Cardinals were outyarded on average by 64-yards per game, they are doing the same this year and that is not a good recipe for a favorite laying a touchdown or close to it.
The 49'ers are 6-and-1 ATS when getting points from The Cardinals. Carson Palmer is 1-and-3 ATS vs. San Francisco and was twice favored in which he lost both SU. In 17-home games in this series, The Cardinals have won 7 - only 2 by more than a TD. They have been favored 6-times and are 0-and-6 ATS, losing 4-of those SU. Now, I understand that those were "different" 49'ers teams than this one but I also believe that this year's Niner team is not as different as people want to make them out to be.. nor do I believe this Arizona squad is much different than in year's past. But this one does not necessarily apply to "different" teams - as road underdogs in the NFL giving up 40 or more points the week prior are 115-88-and-8 (57%) ATS.
And back to the perception of both of these teams.. the line opened up this Summer with The Cardinals favored by 2.5.. so again we have a 4.5 point line swing. Is that justified? About 70% of the tickets on this game are being written on The Cardinals yet slowly but surely, the line has popped down closer to 6 rather than going up to 7 and higher.
I wouldn't at all be surprised by a San Francisco outright win here this Sunday in Glendale.
Bob Balfe
Falcons -1
The Cowboys beat the Eagles last week and the Giants in week 1, but didn’t look good in either game. This team is without their starting QB, best WR and Jason Witten will play however he is not 100%. The main thing for me is the defensive ends who two guys in the rotation are out of this game and the others are young. I don’t think Dallas is going to be able to put enough pressure on Ryan to win this game with all of those offensive pieces missing. If this defense was the 85 Bears they could win without a quarterback. Remember that Atlanta was the Cowboys last year in regards to dealing with injury after injury. This is a good football team that is overlooked because of their final record. Look for Matt Ryan to lead his team to another victory of a NFC East team. Take the Falcons.
Angels -115
The Angels are so close to a playoff spot while the Mariners are going home soon. This Angels team had thrilling walk off win last night. This team is excited about getting up and playing here to end the season while the Mariners are not. This should be a fun final few days in MLB. Take the Angels.
Harry Bondi
Denver / Detroit Under 44.5
We have pegged Denver as a "dead-nuts" under team this season and until the oddsmaker starts to adjust we'll continue to go under. If not for the two TDs that were scored in less than one minute of the fourth quarter last week, the Broncos would have gone under against KC, but instead the final score of 31-24 makes it look like it was a high-scoring game, and that gives us value here. With Peyton Manning's arm shot, the Broncos offense is run-oriented and the Denver defense is among the best in the NFL. Detroit, meanwhile, will also try to slow the game down and stay out of 3rd-and-long situations since QB Matthew Stafford is banged up and prone to turnovers. The Lions have also been an "under" team in recent history cashing under tickets in 21 of their last 35 games overall and seven of their last 10 when pegged as the underdog. Go under!
Ross Benjamin
Indianapolis at Tennessee
Play: Tennessee +3.5
Marcus Mariota has been impressive in his first two NFL starts, completing 64.2% of his pass attempts for 466 yards, and threw for 6 touchdowns against no picks. The Colts are really banged up on the defensive side of the ball. In last Monday’s loss to the Jets, Indianapolis was without three top members of their secondary due to injuries. Their defensive interior has shown to be soft in the first two games as well, and that’s not good news since Tennessee has done a nice job running the ball thus far. With all being considered, I like the home underdog value in this one. Play on the Tennessee Titans plus the points.
Red Dog Sports
Texas +210
Take Texas as they are 8-1 in the last 9 vs. Houston and Keuchel allowed 6 runs in the first inning of a recent loss at Texas. Nice value on the visitors at +210. Hope to see Choo, Beltre and Fielder lead the way.