Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday September 27,2009

Doc's Sports
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Take Denver over Oakland
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The Broncos are off to a surprising 2-0 start in 2009 and look to make it 3-0 against the Raiders Sunday afternoon in Oakland. Whenever you see the Raiders as a favorite, it is an automatic play against lately. When they are favored against divisional teams they are 0-10 ATS in their last ten games. Denver won in Oakland last year 41-10 on Monday Night Football to open up the 2008 season. I just am not sold on QB Russell as a leader, winner, or playmaker. He seems to miss wide open receiver and despite having a strong arm, I do not believe he will be able to get the job done in the league.

Craig Trapp
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Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Chicago Bears -1
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The Chicago Bears are coming off the biggest win this team has seen in over 2 years. The best news it that new QB Cutler was magical at the end of the game, leading them down for a game winning score. It has been forever since CHI could rely on a QB. The confidence of both the offense and defense can be seen by everyone. No longer does this team have to play great defense and win ugly. This team can actually move the ball on offense. On the other side another injury to Superstar QB Hassleback has Seattle's teams lofty goals in jeopardy. Seattle's defense is a little better from last year but not good enough to win games for them. Sounds as if Hassleback will miss this week and without him they have very little chance in beating a very good Bears team. Take CHI -1

Alex Smart
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San Francisco 49ers +6.5
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The Minnesota Vikings host the hard hitting San Francisco 49'ers in a matchup that will feature super star QB Brett Favre and HC of the Niners Mike Singletary. Alot is being made of Favre by the media, and how he has helped the Vikings become a top tier team, but more should be made of Singletary , a man who shattered 16 of his own helmets when roamed the gridiron at Baylor. The Chicago Bears Hall of Fame linebacker from 1981 to 1992 was the nastiest defensive player player of his generation and consistently ranked first or second on his team in tackles for 11 seasons. He personifies the new look and attitude of the San Francisco 49'ers. To a man you have to show grit and consistency to be on this team, its down right scary to be at a 49'er practice and this translates into even meaner play in regular season contests. No pussies allowed by Samurai Mike. He does not scream at his players or ridicule them , but is honest about how he expects his players to play and that is smash mouth football. Its all about respect and you better respect the Niners in this spot getting points. Look for the Niners eight man front to give Brett Favre and company some major headaches this Sunday.Play on the 49'ers to cover

John Martin
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1 Unit on New England Patriots -4
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The Patriots have to win this game, and I have no doubt that Tom Brady and company will get the job done. The Patriots were embarrassed last week at New York, and you can bet Bill Belichick will have his team ready to go this week. Atlanta has been very fortunate to play their first two games at home, but now they have to face a rowdy crowd in Foxboro and a team very hungry for a win. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. My money is on Brady and Belichick this week. Cash in with New England as the favorite.

Alex Grosse
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
Play Houston Texans -3½
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After an embarrassing 24-7 blowout loss at home to the Jets in week 1, the Texans rebounded by defeating the Titans 34-31 on the road. By scoring 34 points against one of the league’s toughest defenses, Gary Kubiak’s squad proved that it has the potential to be one of the league’s most powerful offensive teams. Most of Houston’s yards were gained through the air as Matt Schaub was absolutely spectacular throwing for 357 yards and 4 touchdowns. He will likely put up big numbers against the Jags who rank 26th in pass defense, allowing 279.5 yards through the air. The only concern for Houston covering the number is its ability to stop the opposition. The Texans are allowing 27.5 points per game but fortunately are facing an opponent that has a difficult time scoring points. The Jags are only averaging 14.5 points and ranked 24th in points last season. Additionally, the Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Houston.
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Washington Redskins vs. Detroit Lions
Play Detroit Lions +6½
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The Redskins proved again last week why you cannot play them as a favorite. They were favored by 10 points against the Rams and were barely able to beat them. They didn’t even score a touchdown! Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 as a favorite. They travel to Detroit to face the Lions, a team who has lost 19 consecutive regular season games. I can guarantee you that Detroit will be hungry to win this one and will give the Redskins a run for their money. The Lions may have gotten creamed in their first two games this season but they faced the Saints and Vikings, two teams that have a very good chance at winning their respective divisions and are considered to be Super Bowl Contenders by many. The problem with the Redskins is that they just can’t seem to be able to score points. They are averaging 13 points per game ranking 31st in the league and ranked 28th in that category last year. A team that is having this kind of trouble offensively should never be favored by this margin.I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions win this one outright.

Black Widow
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1* on Buffalo Bills +6.5
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Everyone is all over the New Orleans Saints after they've put up 93 points in 2 games. As a result, this line has been inflated. Remember, the Bills could easily be 2-0 right now if it wasn't for a Leodis McKelvin fumble that handed the Patriots the game in Week 1. But Buffalo responded nicely at home last week, taking a 17-0 lead over Tampa Bay and never looking back in a 33-20 victory. This Bills' defense is much better than they get credit for, and this stop unit can make big plays to counter the Saints' explosive offense. After last week’s win over Tampa Bay, Head coach Dick Jauron now owns a 15-3 ATS mark at home against non-conference teams. His Bills’ clubs are also 9-4 ATS in September, and 8-4 ATS as home dogs. The Saints were fortunate to play Detroit in Week 1 and an Eagles' team without Donovan McNabb and a beat up defense in Week 2. This one won't come as easy for Drew Brees and company as the oddsmakers are expecting. Take Buffalo and the points.

Robert Ferringo
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Take 'Under' 44.0 New York Giants at Tampa Bay
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The Giants and the Bucs have each flown well over the total in each of their two games this year and each is a solid 5-1 against the total in its last six games through the preseason as well. However, this number is high. The last 10 meetings between these two teams have all gone ‘under’ the total, including a 24-14 grinder in the 2007 playoffs. The Giants are in a little bit of a flat spot here after their big road upset at Dallas Sunday night. It might be tough to get up for this game. Both clubs want to run the ball and bang heads, even though they have been putting up strong passing numbers. I just think that it turns into more of a field position game and I think that both offenses come way back down to earth this week. We’re looking at thunderstorms all weekend in Tampa and the ‘under’ is 6-1 in Tampa’s last seven games at home against a team with a winning record.

Freddy Wills
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Tennessee Titans vs. New York Jets
Take the Jets -1
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I'm going with the Jets I'm not buying into the fact that the Titans absolutely need this game. I mean I agree, but that does not mean the Jets don't want to start 3-0. I really don't think it should take any kind of impact on this game. The Jets at home showing what they can do already seems like a solid bet to me. It's only a free pick because I know Sanchez is going to struggle one time soon and with the solid rush defense from the Titans it could come down to Sanchez on Sunday. However, let me take you back a year ago when the Jets won at New England and then went to Tennessee to play the Titans. Similar story here with the Jets facing the Patriots last week. Only difference is the Jets will be home in both games.
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The Titans have gotten killed through the air showing us that they are vulnerable in the passing attack. Big Ben threw a career high 363 yards, and Matt Schaub who the Jets absolutely shut down threw for 357 yards. There has not been much running room for the Steelers or Texans, but these are two of the worst running teams in the league in my opinion. The Jets rattled off 192 yards rushing last year on the Titans and that was when they had Haynesworth. The Jets have one of the leagues best rushing attacks with their offensive line, and I think they'll be able to run the ball enough to set up the pass. TE's have had big games against the Titans in two games they've had 14 receptions for 136 yards look for Keller to have a huge impact here on Sunday. No doubt this will be a close and hard hitting game, but in the end I see the Jets standing at 3-0 and the Titans at 0-3.

MATT FARGO

Seattle Seahawks +2.0

The Bears are coming off a very big win last Sunday against the Steelers and now they head out west to Seattle before coming back home for a divisional game against Detroit. This is a typical sandwich spot for Chicago and yet it comes into this game favored. This line opened with the Bears being a favorite before the injury information even came in which I think was a huge error. During their Super Bowl season, the Bears went 7-1 on the road during the regular season but since then they have gone just 6-11 with three of those wins coming against Detroit and St. Louis last season and Oakland in 2007 and the season record for those teams in those years were 0-16, 2-14 and 4-12. Wins against the better teams on the road have been few and far between and even with Matt Hasselbeck likely out for this one, the Seahawks are still a good team. The Seahawks were a disappointing 2-6 at home last season but injuries played a huge role in their down season in 2008. Hasselbeck was part of it but receivers and key defensive players were also part of it. Toward the end of the season, Seattle simply gave up as it got into a big hole that it could not get out of. Sitting at 1-1 this season, the Seahawks know that the season is far from over and this is a big game to get things going back in the right direction. The Seahawks have a game at Indianapolis next week so the possibility of a 1-3 record after next week is there if it loses here. The Seahawks defense was gashed last week against the 49ers and Frank Gore as he gained 207 yards on 16 carries. He had two big touchdown runs and take those away and his average drops from 12.9 ypc to just 3.4 ypc so basically Gore was held in check his other 14 carries. That shows how numbers can really get out of whack when only one or two plays make the difference. Making corrections this week has been the main focus for defensive coordinator Gus Bradley with the Bears bringing running back Matt Forte to town. But even with Lofa Tatupu a question, the Seahawks won't change anything if linebacker David Hawthorne feels he is up for the challenge in his first NFL start. I dont think anything needs to be changed anyway based on the Gore breakdown anyway. In Week One, Seattle held Steven Jackson of the Rams to 67 yards on 16 carries (4.2 ypc). Take away his 22-yard run and his average per attempts drops to 3.0. That is another classic example of just one play throwing everything out of whack. Chicago rushed for just 43 yards on 18 carries last week (2.4 ypc). The Bears defense is without Brian Urlacher and they did not do a great job against the Steelers despite allowing just 14 points. Pittsburgh rushed for 105 yards on 22 carries (4.8 ypc) and the offense outgained the Bears offense 308-275. Chicago was fortunate Pittsburgh missed two field goals. Seattle also falls into a great rushing situation. Play on underdogs or pickems after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game going up against an opponent after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) since 1983. 3* Seattle Seahawks

Terron Chapman

New Orleans Saints vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills +6

The latest offense to take the NFL by storm will make it’s way to Orchard Park, New York Sunday afternoon as the New Orleans Saints travel to Ralph Wilson Stadium for an interconference match-up with the Buffalo Bills.

The New Orleans offense has been unstoppable in two wins to start the season. The Saints dominated the Lions 45-27 at home in the opener and blew out the Eagles 48-22 in Philadelphia last Sunday. The Saints have topped the 100-yard mark on the ground in consecutive weeks to go with a deadly passing game, making the Bills job on Sunday twice as difficult. But don’t expect the Saints offense to be as fluid playing their second road game in a row. The Bills defense is solid against the run, and they did a pretty good job of containing Tom Brady and the Patriots passing attack in week one.

If the Bills can get stops, then Trent Edwards and the offense should be able to put some points on the board. The New Orleans defense is improved but has not really been tested in the first two weeks. We should get a better gauge of just how far this Saints defense has come against a Bills offense that has weapons on the outside and a solid running game led by Fred Jackson.

This is a good test for two teams that have been pleasant surprises to start the season. We should get a good idea of where both teams stand after Sunday. The Bills defense should be able to slow down the Saints, and with the Bills’ offense clicking to start the season, I think we’ll see them keep pace with high powered New Orleans attack. Take the points. Play on the Buffalo Bills for 1 unit.

Tony George

New Orleans Saints vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: New Orleans -6

What can you say about the Saints? Their offense is rivaling The greatest Show on Turf days of the Rams. QB Brees is off the chart, throwing to a host of weapons in Colston and Shockey to name a few, and I doubt seriously if the Bills hapless secondary can do much of anything to contain them on Sunday, even at home. The no huddle offense of the Bills will allow a huge time of possession advantage to the Saints, and that is the last thing that you want. Saints big play capability and better than average defense will keep the Bills from trading punches here, and Trent Edwards under the gun and forced to stretch the field has not worked well in the past for the Bills, and that will be the case on Sunday.

KEY MIS-MATCH - The NFLs leading passer and pass offense against the NFLs WORST PASS DEFENSE! Add to the fact that the Bills pass rush is so/so and QB Brees is a mobile and accurate thrower who can buy even more time to throw it, and there simply is no way unless New Orleans fails to get off the bus that they should not win this game by 10 to 14 points with ease.

Play on New Orleans

Marc Lawrence

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers
Prediction: Miami Dolphins

When the Dolphins meet the Chargers in San Diego Sunday afternoon they will do so knowing they are 5-0 ATS in this series. They are also 10-0 ATS as dogs of two or more points against the AFC West, including 7-0 ATS away. On the flip side, the Chargers are 1-10 ATS at home in September off a SU and ATS loss. With San Diego head coach Norv Turner's teams notoriously slow starters (14-21 SU and ATS first three games of the season, including 5-12 ATS at home), we'll grab the points with the Fish in this matchup.

Scott Rickenbach

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
PICK: Cleveland Browns +14

We realize that Cleveland has played some ugly football so far this season but this is the perfect spot for them to get a healthy cover. After ugly performances to begin their season, and the fact that they’ve scored just one offensive TD since mid-November, the fact is that the Browns are truly undervalued right now. We don’t feel they are talented enough to steal the outright upset win here but they are catching the Ravens at the right time to stay within the very generous number here. Cleveland opened up as a two touchdown dog in this game and, as bad as they’ve played so far, that number is still over-inflated. Let’s not forget that Baltimore is coming off of a tough, cross country trip. Also, the Ravens did give up 421 yards through the air and were severely outgained by the Chargers. Now, we fully realize that the Browns offense is nowhere near the capabilities of the San Diego offense. However, the point is that the Ravens defense is coming off of a subpar performance and then had to travel cross country to get back home to play a foe whom they will likely underestimate.

After all, the Browns have an 0-2 mark on the season and have been outscored by a combined 61 to 26 margin. That doesn’t exactly make opponents circle their calendar in fear. In fact, what happens here is that you will see the Browns, who as a group still despite the Ravens for taking the franchise from Cleveland to Baltimore years ago, will absolutely play the role of hungry road dog in this one. Note that the underdog has covered 10 of the last 14 games in this series and this is big chalk that the Ravens are being asked to cover. Last week there were three teams favored by more than a touchdown. The Vikings covered, even though statistically they should not have. As for the Redskins, they only won their game by two points. The third, Green Bay, didn’t even win their game. Big favorites also struggled to close out Week One as the Monday night big faves of New England and San Diego barely even won their games and neither covered. We realize there are mismatches on the field in this match-up but situationally and motivationally, grabbing the big points is where the value is here. Consider a small play on the BROWNS on Sunday.

Doug Williams

Cleveland @ Baltimore
Cleveland is garbage, but there are a few things to be said about giving up a dozen points in the NFL. Baltimore isn't about heaping on the points, and Cleveland is bad, just not hopelessly terrible.
Cleveland Covers +13.5

San Fran @ Minnesota
San Fran has some serious moxy these days, I dont expect it to last, but I expect it to keep them within a touchdown with a shaky, if not consistent, Viking Pass O.
San Fran Covers +6.5

Denver @ Oakland
After what was surely the worst QB performancing since Rex Grossman's dismal starts with the Bear, Jamarcus Russell somehow managed to actually win a football game. But don't get confused, it wasn't so much him, but a decent run game and solid D.
Oakland covers +1.5

Indy @ Arizona
The Colts have been shaky, but they always seem to be in a position to win at the end of every game, look for the shakyness to continue, but for Indy to cover in a shootout.
Indianapolis Colts Cover +2.5