Jimmy the Moose
New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills
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In week 1 the Saints put up 45-points vs. the Detroit Lions and they followed that up in week 2 by putting up 48-points vs. the Philadelphia Eagles. After two week the Saints are averaging 46.5 points per game. Drew Brees is leading the offensive attack throwing for a total of 669 yards and 9 TD's after two weeks. New Orleans D is allowing an average of 24.5 PPG which isn't very good but when your offense is averaging as many points as the Saints are, it can be overlooked.
The over is 5-0-1 in the Saints last 6 games played in September. The over is a profitable 20-7-1 in New Orleans last 28 games overall. The over is 13-4 in their last 17 games as a road favorite and in their lat 5 overall as a favorite the over is 4-1. The over is 19-7 in the Saints last 26 games following a SU win.
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The Buffalo Bills offense really struggled in the preseason and many figured that their struggles would continue into the regular season but that hasn't been the case. Buffalo scored 24 points on the Patriots in week 1 and in week 2 at home vs. the Bucs the Bills scored 33 points in the victory. Buffalo is averaging 28.5 PPG while the D is allowing an average of 22.5 points per contest. Trent Edwards is leading the offense and with wideouts like Owens and Evans you'll be able to put up points. Fred Jackson who is filling in for the suspended Lynch at RB has looked very good for the Bills and he'll do a lot of damage today.
The over is 4-0 in the Bills last 4 games played in September and their last 4 games played in week 3 have played over the total. Buffalo has played over the total in 4 of their last 5 games played. In their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record the over is 5-2. The over is 9-3-1 in the Bills last 13 games played on turf.
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The over is 2-0 for both teams to start the season and based on their offensive showings in the first two weeks of the season, this game will follow suit. Don't expect a defensive battle in this one as it will easily play over the total.
Play the Saints/Bills Over
DAVE COKIN
GREEN BAY PACKERS / ST. LOUIS RAMS
TAKE: GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Packers went flat last week and paid for it with an outright home loss to the Bengals. That's bad news for the inept Rams, who are likely to catch the clearly superior Green Bay squad in a nasty mood. The Packers can be had defensively, but St. Louis just doesn't seem to have much firepower on offense to take advantage. And while the Rams are acceptable on defense, I cannot see them shutting down the potent Packers. I generally prefer home dogs to road favorites in this league, but this is one spot where the chalk looks right, so I'll go with Green Bay.
JIM FEIST
CHICAGO BEARS / SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
TAKE: CHICAGO BEARS
The Bears (1-1 SU/ATS) have a new quarterback in Jay Cutler (3 TDs, 4 picks). They looked terrible in the opener, a 21-15 loss at Green Bay, but caught fire in the 4th quarter Sunday in a 17-14 win over the Steelers. The offense had just 275 total yards, but Cutler was 27-of-38 for 262 yards against the champs. Star LB Brian Urlacher will miss the rest of the season after undergoing surgery to repair his dislocated right wrist, a huge blow. Seattle (1-1 SU/ATS) has a new head coach in Jim Mora. They looked healthy and sharp behind QB Matt Hasselbeck (3 TDs, 2 INTs) in the opener, a 28-0 win over the Rams, then laid an egg in Week 2, a 23-10 loss at San Francisco. So will the real Seahawks stand up? The wideouts are upgraded with newcomer T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR Nate Burleson and TE John Carlson. They rolled up 446 yards in the opener, but on Sunday Hasselbeck left with a rib injury after being hit by Patrick Willis. Hasselbeck completed 10-of-18 passes for 97 yards before leaving. Backup QB Seneca Wallace was decent: 15-of-23 for 127 yards. The defense ranked 30th overall last year and added rookie LB Aaron Curry. New defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is playing a base 4-3, Cover 2, but some 3-3-5. They held the Rams to 77 yards rushing, then gave up 256 yards on the ground to the 49ers! Just don't have much faith in Wallace here and and last season the Seahawks laid an egg without their star QB. We'll take the Bears who are gaining confidence after their big win.
Bobby Maxwell
Tennessee +2 at N.Y. JETS
Today's FREE winner for you comes on the Titans as they head to New York to face the Jets in a pivotal game for their season.
The Titans are in a must-win situation. No bones about it, no other way to say it. This team must win today or they can forget about making the playoffs in the AFC.
This team came out on opening night and looked like the Titans of a season ago, playing stellar defense and getting just enough offense, even though they lost in OT to the Steelers 13-10, they looked like they'd be OK. Then Week 2 rolls around and the Titans fall 34-31 to the Texans in Tennessee. Ugly game, bad defense and wild offense.
The Titans couldn't stop Matt Schaub and every completed pass was to a wide receiver open by 10 yards. It was too easy.
I like Tennessee today because they are behind the 8-ball and have to win, plus they owe the Jets one after New York went to Tennessee and broke their 9-0 streak to start last season.
The road team is 5-1 ATS in this series and despite their ugly start, Tennessee is on ATS runs of 13-6 overall, 9-1 in September, 17-5 as an underdog, 18-7 on the road and 5-1 after a SU home loss.
Mark Sanchez and the Jets have started 2-0, but when's the last time a rookie came out 3-0? Not very often and not likely today. They have failed to cash in five straight as a favorite and they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven.
New York is solid, but they are facing a caged lion in the Titans. Grab the few points and play Tennessee.
4♦ TENNESSEE
Jeff Benton
Jacksonville at HOUSTON -4
I’m on a 9-3 roll with NFL freebies dating to last year. For Sunday’s free play, I’ll lay the chalk with the Texans over the Jaguars in AFC South action.
The ONLY reason I didn’t make this a premium release is because I’m slightly concerned that this number is a trap. Because my power ratings say Houston should be laying AT LEAST six points. You may recall that I went against Jacksonville last week, and the Jags got completely outplayed in a 14-point home loss to Arizona as a three-point favorite. I said then and still believe now that Jacksonville is a team in turmoil with a coach whose players have pretty much quit on him.
As it is, through two games, the Jaguars are putting up just 14.5 points and 300 yards per game, scoring just three touchdowns in 22 drives (and two of those came last week when trailing the Cardinals by 17 points). Meanwhile the defense has given up 22.5 points and 374 yards per contest, but it’s the Jags’ pass defense that has been alarmingly bad. Both Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner carved up Jacksonville, completing 81 percent of their passes for an average of nearly 280 yards. Well, now Jacksonville faces Houston QB Matt Schaub, and all he did last week was carve up a quality Titans’ defense for 357 passing yards and four TDs.
After a shocking home loss to the Jets to start the season, the Texans rallied from a two-TD hole to beat Tennessee 34-31 as a seven-point underdog last Sunday. That was their fourth consecutive spread-cover against an AFC South rival, and they’re now 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. And get this: Houston has cashed in 11 of 14 all-time games against Jacksonville, going 3-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings at Reliant Stadium in H-town
Bottom line: QB David Garrard (5.7 yards per pass attempt; 72.7 QB rating) and Jacksonville’s offense, which has produced a total of 46 points in its last four road games, simply does not have the firepower to match points with Houston. Given the Texans’ dominance in his rivalry from a pointspread perspective, how do you not lay this very reasonable price?
3♦ HOUSTON
Sports Gambling Hotline
Jacksonville at HOUSTON -4
Here we have a case of franchises heading in opposite directions, as we believe the winless Jaguars are in a heap-load of trouble this season, while we see the Texans big upset win at Tennessee as a sign of things to come for ascending Houston.
It's obvious that Houston's opening week home loss to the Jets was no knock on the Texans, but more a barometer on how improved the Jets are this year.
Houston has had Jacksonville's number at Reliant Stadium, winning and covering the last 3 visits the Jags have paid, and overall the Texans have covered 3 straight, and 5 of the last 6 in this division series.
The Jacksonville offense hasn't topped 17-points in either of their 2 losses this year, and we don't see them scoring much more than that this afternoon on the road.
We will go with Houston to get the win and cover.
4♦ HOUSTON
Stephen Nover
New Orleans at BUFFALO +6
The Saints have opened in impressive fashion blowing out Detroit and Philadelphia on the road. Just how good are the Saints?
Very good on offense. New Orleans' defense should be improved under highly-respected defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, but it remains below average and vulnerable. The defensive players are learning multiple new formations and could struggle more during the early portion of the season.
Drew Brees is the obvious reason why the Saints' offense has been awesome. Brees, though, was aided by unsung running back Mike Bell during the first two weeks. The semblance of a ground game enabled Brees to effectively work play-action.
Now, though, Bell is out. Pierre Thomas is back, but he's not 100 percent because of a sore knee. Reggie Bush is not a heavy duty back. Rookie fourth-stringer Lynell Hamilton is expected to see some action.
This is not an imposing ground attack. The Bills can play pass more and they have ballhawks in the secondary. The Saints also aren't going to have Lance Moore (hamstring injury), their second-most consistent wide receiver.
The Bills are 1-1. They should be 2-0 but a fumbled kickoff late in the game cost them a probable win against New England. Buffalo's offense is gaining steam following a 438-yard offensive showing in a 33-20 victory against Tampa Bay last week.
Buffalo usually is tough in September. The Bills have covered six of their last seven September contests and are 7-3 against the number as a home underdog. Bills coach Dick Jauron excels in this role. He's 14-3 against the spread as a non-division home 'dog.
New Orleans is in a letdown spot being on the road a second consecutive week after a huge win. The Saints are 6-13-1 against the spread in their last 20 games following a victory.
Weather could factor in this matchup. The forecast is calling for a 40-50 percent chance of rain with wind in the 15-18 mph range. If that turns out to be the case, New Orleans coach Sean Payton may not want to risk Thomas on wet carpet, which would further impact the Saints' ground attack.
Bad weather would hurt the Saints more than the Bills because New Orleans is a wide open, finesse team. Brees is a rhythm passer. A sleak field could result in a lot of players slipping and timing being thrown off. The Bills would be more equipped to deal with bad conditions being the more balanced club. Trent Edwards' strength as a quarterback is intelligent game management and keeping the chains moving with accurate short passes.
3♦ BUFFALO BILLS
Karl Garrett
New Orleans at BUFFALO
Unless a Noreaster breaks out this Sunday at Ralph Wilson Stadium, I think you can expect to see another big numbers game involving New Orleans, and Buffalo.
The Saints have scored 45, and 48 points through their first 2 games, and have allowed 27, and 22 points in those games. You don't need to be Einstein to figure out that both games have easily gone OVER the total.
As for the Bills, they have been OVER in both of their games played, as their Monday nighter in New England slipped OVER late in the game, while last week's home opener saw 53 combined points against the Tampa Bay Bucs.
Overall, New Orleans has played 'em HIGH in 17 of their last 23 games, and today looks to be another one added to the OVER list.
Until you see an actual UNDER or two from either team, you have to stick with the OVER.
4♦ OVER
Tony Weston
Like I said, Washington State didn’t pull off the outright upset, but did stay close enough to cover as about a 44-point underdog.
I’m coming through again today for you as I’m taking the Dolphins on the road at the San Diego Chargers.
The Dolphins come into this game an unlikely 0-2 SU and ATS, having suffered tough losses against the Falcons and the Colts. But Miami will be in a position to pull off the outright win today in San Diego. While, I’m not going to suggest taking the Money Line, do take the points and take the Dolphins on the Side.
Miami comes into this game getting a shot at a Chargers team that’s 0-2 ATS so far this season and going back to last year has covered in only 2 of its last 9 games when installed as a favorite.
The Chargers are also just 2-6-1 ATS their last 9 games in September and have covered in just one of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.
The Dolphins, on the other hand have covered in 6 of their last 8 games on the road and are 5-1 ATS their last 6 games when installed as a road underdog.
Keep in mind, too, the Chargers will be without regular starting running back LaDainian Tomlinson and are banged up on both sides of the ball.
The Dolphins will keep this one close and have a chance to pull off the upset. Take the points and take Miami on the road in this one.
3♦ DOLPHINS
Matty B Sports
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Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Seattle Seahawks +1
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After opening their season with a strong 28-0 win over St. Louis, things got ugly for Seattle last week in San Francisco. Not only did they lose 23-10, but they also lost starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck to a rib injury. He’s out of this game and Seneca Wallace will get the start. Wallace can play, and we expect him to step in and get Seattle back on the winning track. Prior to last season, the Seahawks had one of the strongest home fields in all of the NFL. After going just 2-6 at home in 2008, we came into this year looking to play on the Seahawks at home. And this is a pretty good spot to do it. They catch the Bears off a last minute win over the Steelers; a game in which the Bears were very fortunate to win. Pittsburgh out-yarded Chicago, and the Steelers also missed two field goals that cost them the win. Chicago hasn’t shown they can run the ball yet this year with only 129 total yards in two games, and road favorites that can’t run the ball are a bad proposition. So the loss of Seattle starting linebacker Lofa Tatupu (hamstring injury) shouldn’t be much of an issue. With the Bears just 2-6 straight-up over their last 8 road games, we’ll look for the Seahawks to bounce back with a win on their strong home field. Play Seahawks plus the points.
Frank Jordan
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Washington Redskins vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Detroit Lions +6.5
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Detroit hasn't won in nearly 20 games and Washington is 1-1, but that win was at home 9-7 against St. Louis. How do you have a home game against St. Louis and not score a TD? The easy answer cause you are the Redskins. Detroit had a tough draw in their opener at New Orleans, but last week had a lead early in the game against Minnesota before Adrian Peterson took over and ran all over the Lions. Look for the Lions in their building to end the losing with a win over the offensively challenged Washington Redskins. Play Detroit
Larry Ness
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Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions
PICK: Washington Redskins -6.5
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The Lions have lost 19 straight NFL games. It's the second-longest losing streak in league history next to the Bucs losing their first 26 games after entering the league back in September of 1976 (lasted until December of 1977). Detroit has not won since beating Kansas City 25-20 on December 23, 2007 and the Lions have dropped 19 of 21 regular season games against the Redskins going back to the 1968 season. These teams met last October at Ford Field with the Redskins piling up 439 total yards in a 25-17 win. Washington hasn't come close to that level of offensive production in 2009, having scored only two TDs through two games, one coming on punter Hunter Smith's eight-yard run on a fake FG in a 23-17 Week 1 loss at the New York Giants. Washington had 326 yards of total offense in Sunday's win over St Louis but scored just nine points (Rams scored just seven). The Redskins had four drives inside the Rams' 10-yard line but NONE wound up in the end zone. The Lions' D is "just what the doctor ordered" for Washington. Detroit has allowed a league-high 72 points (36.0 PPG) after two games. Washington QB Jason Campbell and RB Clinton Portis are both bothered with ankle problems but both are listed as probable. Why wouldn't they want to play? Detroit's pass D has allowed 80.6 percent completions (50-of-62!) with eight TDs and just one INT (opposing QB rating of 134.9!). The rush D has allowed 134.5 YPG on 4.5 YPC. Washington has not scored more than 29 points in any of Jim Zorn's 18 games as head coach but the Redskins will top 30 points in this one. Lay it.
Tony Mathews
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Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders
Selection: Denver Broncos -1.5
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There is no question that the Broncos defense has improved tremendously since last season, and allowing only 12 points combined in their last 2 games, they are ranked top in the league. In addition, the offense is gaining strength with a strong OL and a lot of talent at the skill positions. Quarterback Kyle Orton has achieved a nice rhythm made apparent in last week’s game against Cleveland, and seems to have recovered from all his preseason mishaps. However, these improvements have gone virtually unnoticed by the media.
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After winning against the Chiefs 13-10 on a last minute TD drive last week, the Raiders are now 1-1. But Oakland was outgained by Kansas City 409-166 and half the yards came on that winning drive. Raiders’ QB JaMarcus Russell completed only 7-of-24 attempts for 109 yards, with four of those completions coming on the final drive. The Broncos could possibly be the best team in the AFC West and we expect them to win and approve their record to 3-0.
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Take the Denver Broncos -1.5
Jr Tips
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Dolphins at Chargers
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The Miami Dolphins are winless after two games and will look to extend a seven-game winning streak against the injury-riddled Chargers today.Miami lost 27-23 to Indianapolis on Monday night despite limiting the Colts to 61 yards on the ground. The Dolphins are coming off a short week although Miami has won seven straight against San Diego since 1993. The Dolphins won 17-10 at home in the teams' last meeting, limiting the Chargers to 60 yards on the ground and Miami has surrendered an average of 71.7 rushing yards during its run versus San Diego. LaDainian Tomlinson will not play today after he suffered an ankle injury two weeks ago.The Chargers are also missing center Nick Hardwick (ankle) and right guard Louis Vasquez (knee). Sproles and Philip Rivers almost single-handedly kept the Chargers in the game last wek against Baltimore. Rivers threw for a career-high 436 yards and two TDs, but also had two interceptions. The Chargers offense continues to put pressure on every team they faced including the Ravens last week although they have had trouble scoring in the Red zone. Miami will have to try to stop Rivers from having another big game which is unlikey with the young inexperiened corners.The Dolphins' running game poses a formidable threat of its own as Miami rushed for 239 yards and a TD against Indianapolis. They continue to have success with the Wildcat formation as the Dolphins used that package 12 times Monday and it yielded 107 yards on the ground.Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have a combined 287 yards rushing and Brown had 125 yards and a TD in last season's matchup with San Diego.This will be a barn burner as Rivers will put pressure on Miami's corners all day. In the same since, Miami will be able to move the ball and score as they always do against this San Diego defense.
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TAKE MIAMI/SAN DIEGO OVER 44
Hentai Sports
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Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots
Prediction : New England Patriots -4.
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The Patriots have to win this game, and I have no doubt that Tom Brady and company will get the job done. The Patriots were embarrassed last week at New York, and you can bet Bill Belichick will have his team ready to go this week. Atlanta has been very fortunate to play their first two games at home, but now they have to face a rowdy crowd in Foxboro and a team very hungry for a win. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.