Tom Freese
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: under
Kansas City 12-3-2 UNDER their last 17 games as favorites and they are 12-3-1 UNDER on Sunday. The Royals are 12-3-1 UNDER with Zach Greinke on the mound vs. AL Central teams and they are 6-0 UNDER at home with Greinke vs. teams with a winning record. Minnesota is 9-0 UNDER in the last 9 starts made by Francisco Liriano on Sunday and they are 13-3 UNDER with Liriano in Game 3 of a series. The Twins are 11-2-2 their last 15 games vs. righty starters and they are 36-15-1 UNDER on Sunday PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Under
Reason: Cincinnati is 35-17-1 UNDER their last 53 games as underdogs and they are 9-2-1 UNDER their last 12 home games. The Bengals are 7-1 UNDER off an ATS win and they are 6-0 UNDER after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Pittsburgh is 10-1 UNDER in road games off a loss as favorites and they are 18-6 UNDER in road games after scoring 14 points or less in their last game. The Steelers are 4-1 UNDER off an ATS loss. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on 49ers/Vikings Under 39.5
With two very good defenses on the field Sunday and two offenses that prefer to run the football, I expect the clock to keep moving and for this one to go under the number. The Under is 4-0 in the 49ers last 4 road games, 6-0 in the 49ers last 6 games on turf, and 4-0 in the Vikings last 4 vs. the NFC. Bet the Under.
Jack Jones
Washington Redskins vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Washington Redskins -6.5
It's been trendy this week to pick the Lions to get their first win over the Redskins in Detroit today, but the Lions need to show a lot more than they have in their first two games before you'll want to bet on them. Detroit is averaging 20 points per game offensively, which is a step in the right direction, but their defense is giving up 36 points and nearly 400 yards of total offense per game. Today the Detroit offense will be facing one of the better defenses in the league, as the Redskins have allowed just 15 points per game on less than 300 yards of total offense. The Lions defense is just too bad right now to stop anyone, even the offensively-challenged Redskins
Chris Jordan
Washington -6 at DETROIT
Hope you enjoyed that winner on Virginia Tech yesterday ... who'd your handicapper have? Must have been Miami, cause everyone BUT me was on the Hurricanes.
Well here we are again with another public play, and I'm moving against it.
Take the Redskins on the road today, as they'll get it done in Motown.
I'll tell you why by 11 a.m. eastern
You know what they say when everyone is on one side of a ball game ... like Miami yesterday and New England on Monday night two weeks ago, right?
2♦ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Drew Gordon
Chicago at SEATTLE +2'
Now on a 62-50 roll with the plays I'm giving away, incl Alabama easily over Arkansas 35-7! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Chicago at Seattle match up.
No Hasselback, coming off an embarassing loss at San Francisco, there's no way the Seahawks keep pace with the surging Bears, right? WRONG! Guys, this is exactly what the guys in Vegas want you to think, but fact is, there's plenty of reasons to believe the Hawks bring home the cash Sunday.
First, Seattle is never an easy place to get a win, as the Hawks are 10-4-1 ATS over their L15 home games! They're crowd noise is second-to-none in the NFL, and the fact they very nearly beat Dallas in their home opener say a lot about the potential of this Seattle sqaud. A return home is just what the doctor ordered, as I expect a razor sharp effort coming off that loss to the 49ers in this one.
Second, for all the talk about the Bears defense, the Seahawks stop-unit has been rock-solid thus far, allowing 11.5 ppg on 323 total yards. Yes, they've had issues against the run, but their pass defense has been outstanding. As long as Matt Forte continues to struggle, the Hawks can and will shut down Cutler in this contest.
Finally, let's talk about the letdown factor. One game removed from a HUGE emotional win against the defending champs, and you really think the Bears are going to "get up" for a Matt Haselback-less Seahawks team? I see the motivation lacking for Chicago in this match up, while on the flip side, Seattle is boilng mad after they got their asses hammered at San Fran. Also, Wallace has been one of the better back up QBs in the league. In the end, it may seem REAL easy to side with the Bears here, but that's exactly what Vegas wants. Seahawks circle the wagons at home Sunday afternoon!
Take Seattle plus the points over Chicago in this NFL match up.
2♦ SEATTLE
Dominic Fazzini
Miami at SAN DIEGO -5
The Dolphins played a fabulous game Monday night and still lost at home to Indianapolis. The Chargers played like crap last Sunday at home against Baltimore and still nearly beat a very good team.
That is one of the reasons I like San Diego in this spot today. If Miami can't even win a game that it dominates with 45 minutes of possession, what chance does it have to travel to the West Coast on a short week and win?
Philip Rivers torched Baltimore's defense for 436 yards passing and two touchdowns, but he was hurt by two interceptions that the Ravens turned into 10 points. I don't expect him to make the same mistakes today, but I do expect him to turn in another Pro Bowl-like passing performance.
Chad Pennington is a sound QB for the Dolphins, but he doesn't have the ability to get into a shootout with Rivers. And San Diego got a first-hand look at Miami's wildcat attack last year, so it should have a much better idea on how to defend it.
The Chargers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games, and 19-9-1 ATS against AFC teams. The Dolphins are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall, and 1-9-2 in September. I think the short week and travel are really going to take their toll on Miami today, as will San Diego's offense. Take the Chargers to cover the points in this one.
4♦ SAN DIEGO
Michael Cannon
Atlanta +4' at NEW ENGLAND
I’m 7-4 with my last 11 overall free plays.
Take the points with the Falcons this afternoon on the road over the Patriots.
New England is having problems on both sides of the ball, but it’s the defense that will let them down at home today.
The Falcons have the makeup to totally control this game today and they will accomplish that behind the running of Michael Turner and the accurate passing of Matt Ryan.
The addition of tight end Tony Gonzalez has really turned the Falcons into a legitimate contender in the NFC and they’re going to prove it here today in Foxboro.
The Patriots are having problems offensively and it starts with a hesitant Tom Brady.
Brady has looked tentative through the first two games and hasn’t been his normal accurate self. A lot of that has to do with his knee, but it also has to do with the absence of wide receiver Wes Welker, who is Brady’s security blanket with the underneath routes.
Without Welker, Brady hasn’t had time to really find any secondary receivers when the deep routes are covered.
The Falcons are on positive ATS runs of 5-2 in September and 11-4 as a road dog of 3 ½ to 10 points.
New England is on ATS slides of 1-4 in September and 3-11 at home.
Take the points with Atlanta as they stay within the number.
3♦ ATLANTA
Denver at OAKLAND +2
Take the points with the Raiders at home today over the Broncos.
Denver’s 2-0 start is a mirage. They should have lost to the Bengals in Week 1 and routed a Cleveland team that could be the worst team in the league in Week 2.
The Raiders are a team that’s showing signs of improvement. They looked good in their Week 1 loss to the Chargers, a game that they very easily could have won, and found a way to get it together at the end of the game last week on the road over the Chiefs after not producing anything offensively for the entire game.
I expect the Raiders to lean heavily on their running game with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush today. If Oakland plays physical today they will control the ball and the tempo of this game over a poor Denver stop unit.
The Raiders are on a 5-1 ATS run in this series and are on additional pointspread runs of 4-0 overall and 4-0 as an underdog.
The better team is at home and catching points.
Take the Raiders today over the Broncos.
4♦ OAKLAND
Craig Davis
Your next free play winner is on the Chargers. The problem with society today is that we tend to look at the immediate past instead of just looking at the present or looking deep into the past. What people remember is the fact the Dolphins played well enough to beat the mighty Colts while the Chargers looked like crap in their opener yet won and then played very well (minus the turnovers) and still lost to Baltimore. Public perception is that the Dolphins are a scrappy team that won't give up until the final gun while the Chargers are lucky to be 1-1. Be that as it may, San Diego is still going to be a playoff team with the talent they have even despite the loss of key personnel like Tomlinson, Merriman and Hardwick. The Chargers have been waiting for that opportunity to strike a lesser opponent and today might be just that day. San Diego wins by at least a touchdown.
2♦ SAN DIEGO
King Creole
New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Bucs
Play: UNDER the TOTAL
It'll be a short road trip this week for our favorite canine (and last week's ONLY winner) as SPEEDEE heads up to Tampa for the Giants / Bucs game. This series is a PERFECT 0-6 O/U in the last 6 meetings (only 27.3 PPG!). The OU line this week is on the high side for a Bucs home game. In their franchise history, Tampa is a PERFECT 0-8 O/U as HD's of > 3 pts w/ an OU line of > 43 pts. For NFL teams who start the season with BB double-digit losses (like the Bucs), low-scoring results are usually forthcoming. 4-16 O/U last 10 years: All GAME 3 non-division teams off BB DD SU losses... and DOGS of 4 > pts are a PERFECT 0-7 O/U. The Giants are off a high-scoring 33-31 win vs the Cowboys. 1-11 O/U L10Y: All NFL favs off a SU division DOG win in which they scored AND allowed 30 > pts. They also won last week despite allowing the home team to rush for 251 yards! 0-4-1 O/U L10Y: All FAVORITES playing off a SU road win in which they allowed 220 > rushing yards.