Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 28

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Minnesota at Detroit
The Twins look to follow up yesterday's 12-3 win over the Tigers and come into today's contest with a 4-1 record in their last 5 games after scoring 5 or more runs in the previous game. Minnesota is the pick (+250) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+250)

Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cole) 15.607; Cincinnati (Cueto) 17.113
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 6
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-120); Under

Game 953-954: Miami at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Alvarez) 15.728; Washington (Zimmermann) 14.668
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+160); Over

Game 955-956: Atlanta at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Russell) 13.449; Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.997
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-130); Over

Game 957-958: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Turner) 15.332; Milwaukee (Fiers) 14.498
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+155); Under

Game 959-960: San Diego at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Erlin) 13.552; San Francisco (Heston) 15.109
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 961-962: Colorado at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Bergman) 16.339; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 15.421
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-230); 7
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+195); Under

Game 963-964: St. Louis at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.887; Arizona (Collmenter) 14.224
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-185); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-185); Over

Game 965-966: Minnesota at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Gibson) 15.769; Detroit (Price) 14.649
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-300); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+250); Under

Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Cobb) 15.664; Cleveland (House) 14.139
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under

Game 969-970: Baltimore at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 16.509; Toronto (Dickey) 15.110
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+110); Over

Game 971-972: NY Yankees at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pineda) 15.895; Boston (Buchholz) 14.338
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125) 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-125); Over

Game 973-974: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Ventura) 14.337; White Sox (Bassitt) 15.201
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+150); Under

Game 975-976: Oakland at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gray) 15.739; Texas (Martinez) 14.288
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-200); Under

Game 977-978: LA Angels at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Rasmus) 16.449; Seattle (Hernandez) 15.523
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-205); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+175); Over

Game 979-980: Houston at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Tropeano) 14.898; NY Mets (Colon) 13.908
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130); Under

Sam Martin

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Carolina Panthers

The Ravens came out of their gauntlet against three straight division opponents pretty well - going 2-1 including a win in their lone road game at Cleveland last week. Carolina started off the season very good with a 2-0 mark but looked lost on Sunday night in a big loss against the Steelers. We'll back Carolina to bounce back this week and beat the Ravens outright.

Carolina got away from their game plan and finished Sunday's loss with only ten rushing attempts - far below the 24 and 33 rushing attempts they had in the first two weeks. It wasn't just the offense, as their rush defense also fell apart allowing Pittsburgh to run for 264 yards after holding Tampa Bay and Detroit to 172 rushing yards combined. We don't have much faith in the Ravens offense, who now play without tight end Pitta, Baltimore is in a letdown spot anyway coming off those three straight division games. Panthers get back on track with a close outright win and move to 9-1 ATS in the road underdog role!

Jimmy Adams

Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -3

If you watched the Sunday night game you saw the Panthers get completely outplayed on their own home field. This is an example of a team that things went right for the first couple of weeks. They beat the Bucs week 1, a team that is an absolute disaster. Then they went and got the victory over the Lions, but the Lions really beat themselves in that contest. Carolina was a team that I was significantly down on coming into the year, and now is the time to “Fade” them as they are likely to be a bet against squad for much of the season.

This offense has significant problems. Other than Rookie Kelvin Benjamin, there is no threat at the wide receiver position. DeAngelo Williams is hurt and Jonathan Stewart got banged up on a tackle that forced him down awkwardly. So suddenly the Panthers are depleted at running back, a position in which they’ve had so much depth in previous seasons. Cam Newton is also suffering from hurt ribs as well as a hurt ankle. Don’t expect much from this offense Sunday.

The Ravens are a unit that plays much better at home. They had a momentum building last second win against the Browns, and that positive energy will translate into this contest. Baltimore has some issues of their own that need to be worked out, but they remain much better than the Panthers at this point. Home field advantage plays a big factor here and the Ravens get the cover.

Art Aronson

Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Carolina Panthers +3½

The Ravens got a big win in Week 3, while the Panthers were shelled. I am not about to overreact in either case though. Carolina was embarrassed on national TV on Sunday Night at home by the Steelers in a game where it allowed an uncharacteristic 37 points. Note I played on the Steelers as the underdog in that game and was successful. Cam Newton did not look like himself at all and didn’t get the protection he needed to be successful. The Steelers racked up a ridiculous 264 yards rushing, which is mind boggling since the Panthers only allowed 175 combined in the first two weeks: “At times we just looked out of sync," Newton assessed afterwards. "... But it's a long season." I am with Newton on this one and feel that this is a prime spot for Carolina to bounce back in. Keep in mind that the Panthers only allowed 21 points through the first two weeks of the season, but clearly the team was caught off guard in having to deal with off-field issues in the wake of Greg Hardy’s legal problems. But with that mess behind them, the team can come in focused on the task at hand. Baltimore meanwhile has earned back to back wins against divisional opponents and is primed for a letdown in my opinion. The Ravens were a little lucky to come out with a win in Cleveland thanks to blown chances by the home side and a last second boot from kicker Justin Tuck. Joe Flacco threw for 217 yards, one TD and one INT in the win while rookie running back Lorenzo Taliaferro was big on the ground with 91 yards and a TD. Still, the Browns missed several chances to put the Ravens away in the second half. In my opinion, Carolina won’t make the same mistake this week. The Panthers match-up fairly nicely with the physical style that the Ravens like to play at home and I think this game will be very close from start to finish. Note that Carolina is 3-1 ATS as underdog of three points or less the past two seasons and 11-6 ATS as an underdog in the same time frame. Consider a second look at CAROLINA in this matchup.

Art Aronson's Featured Package

Stephen Nover

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Green Bay Packers -1½

Chicago limps home after two back-to-back gutty road victories, using a huge second-half to upset San Francisco and getting past the Jets this past Monday night.

What awaits the Bears is a hungry Packers squad that will get its prolific offense in gear in this matchup. The Bears could be down eight starters. Their secondary is down three starters, including both safeties. They don't have the secondary depth to handle all of Green Bay's receiving weapons.

The Packers didn't fare well last week on the road against the Lions, who also had multiple injuries in the secondary. There is a difference here, though. The Lions can stop the run ranking No. 2 in the league holding foes to 63.7 yards per game. Seattle also is dominant against the run ranking No. 5. The Jets are No. 1 versus the run holding opponents to a meager 55 yards on the ground. Those were the Packers' first three opponents and a big reason why Eddie Lacy has rushed for just 113 yards and 3.1 yards per carry.

Chicago ranks 26th in run defense giving up an average of 144.7 yards per game. The Bears were 30th in yards allowed and points given up last year. Their defense remains weak, made more so by injuries although good-looking rookie cornerback Kyle Fuller makes the loss of Charles Tillman easier to swallow. Fuller has been outstanding so far, but perhaps no cornerback in the league was as adept at causing turnovers as Tillman.

This is Lacy's first easy game and he's helped by having right tackle Bryan Bulaga, an excellent run blocker, back in the lineup. The Bears are going to be forced to commit both of their safeties to pass coverage opening things up even more for Lacy. Rodgers is even more deadly with ground support, something he hasn't had so far.

The Bears are going to put up their share of points, too, but I don't see them being able to keep up with the Packers. Jay Cutler has had some brutal games against Green Bay with the Packers' veteran defensive coordinator Dom Capers effectively confusing him with different blitz packages. Capers is 8-1 against the Bears and Cutler.

Brandon Marshall is not 100 percent bothered by an ankle injury. He was limping during the Monday night game against the Jets catching only pass for six yards. The Bears are down two competent offensive line starters with center Roberto Garza and left guard Matt Slauson unlikely to be recovered from high ankle sprains they suffered three weeks ago.

Chicago used to have outstanding special teams with Devin Hester returning kicks/punts and Dave Toub coaching. But Toub left two years ago and the Bears' special teams have gone from great to bad under Joe DeCamillis.

Green Bay has covered in six of its last seven meetings versus the Bears with the lone loss coming last year in Green Bay when Rodgers suffered a broken collarbone early in the game. The Packers have won in their last four visits to Solider Field.

This is a very short trip for the Packers. Sometimes the Packers haven't taken the Bears as seriously as the Bears have taken them, but yet still have managed to win. This time the Packers will be treating this game as crucial not wanting to lose a second straight NFC North Division game.

The Bears have been a real money-burner at home going 3-12-1 ATS. They haven't matched up well to the Packers even when healthy and now they're in a dangerous situation. This is the right spot for Green Bay.

Stephen Nover's Featured Package

Sleepyj

Miami / Oakland Over 40.5

I have this rated at 46..Under the the key of 41 offers us some great value. You gotta love the conspiracy angle here i'm about to give you. Take note that 68% of the wagers are on the Under yet..The line hasn't moved up "yet"..Under that key of 41 is looking very nice. Let's get back into the game. This one will be played in London. Make no mistake this is not our fathers NFL anymore. The league has changed and so has it's stance to keep the game the way it use to be. Today's NFL is all about offense and scoring. The NFL wants an excited crowd and not a boring game. Well what do they give you in London..perhaps the most boring uninteresting game of the weekend..It will be a sleeper right?..Ah no...it may just be the most entertaining game than you and myself will watch very little of...Did you plan on watching this game?..I'll answer for you..No..unless your a fan of these two or you have a large wager you may have planned to watch very little. Bottom line the NFL will make this an entertaining game. How?..Easy the refs will make it entertaining. They will flag long passes and extend drives for both sides...Let's face it neither of these teams is all that great. Miami is much better than Oakland. The Raiders have zero rushing game at all. They avg about 65 ypg. They have lost 3 in a row and will look to let young QB Derek Carr just go out and light up the sky. We get plenty of big flags in this game just with that alone. Miami's needs to find the pass game...I look for Miami to actually run the ball and pass with success..Miami is 7th in rushing and Oak is the leagues worst rush defense. Miami also has one of he leagues worst passing attacks and will look to iron that out here in London. I can see a bunch of passing in this game and the refs extending drives to make it a "great" game for the NFL fans in the UK. If this was played stateside..who knows..over the pond this one goes over!!

Carlo Campanella

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Pick: Buffalo Bills

The Bills (2-1) looked good while opening their season with back-to-back victories, but can't fault them for their week #3 loss against the Chargers, 22-10. as San Diego looks like a Playoff-caliber crew, beating Super Bowl champion Seattle and their only loss coming against unbeaten (3-0) Arizona. Despite playing talented offensive teams- Chicago, Miami, San Diego- Buffalo has held ALL 3 opponents to 22 points or less so far. Not willing to trust Houston's offense when it's led by former Bill's QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick, who only managed 139 and 201 passing yards against lackluster defense's like Washington and Oakland, who are a combined 1-5 SU this year. Houston comes off their first loss of the year last Sunday, getting beat by the NY Giants 30-17, knowing that they're 0-8 ATS after a road game. Houston started off at 2-0 SU & ATS, but with 3 games in the books, opponents have plenty of film footage to understand what 1st-year HC Bill O'Brien is doing on both sides of the ball...That's exactly how the winless G-Men (1-2) scored 30 points and put up big numbers (419 offensive yards) on their way to their first win last Sunday.

Steve Williams

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Green Bay Packers -1

Your free NFL winner is on the Green Bay Packers -1 over the Chicago Bears. R-E-L-A-X that's Aaron Rodgers word to the Packer faithful. Rodgers, who suffered his collar bone injury last year against the Bears, will be facing a different Bears defense this year. Bears could possibly be down 8 starters from the defense including both safeties. Perfect spot for Rodgers to get the sputtering Pack offense back on track.

Bears off two tough road victories head back home after MNF win over Jets. Packers 1-2 can't fall further behind the Lions and Bears in the NFC North. Packers have won last four trips to Chicago. And are 6-1 ATS last 7 vs. Bears.

So many times in the NFL spot plays are highly effective. This is a bad spot for the Bears. Packers and Rodgers will be out for revenge from last years loss when Aaron went down. Packers in a need to win spot this early in the season. Bears off two tough road wins. Are dealing with numerous injuries on the defense. Plus WR's for Bears are banged up. Going to be tough for Cutler to keep up.

Expect Rodgers and his receivers to light up the Bears secondary. Take the Packers as your free winner on Sunday.

Jack Jones

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7½

Pittsburgh (2-1) opened the season with a 30-27 home win over the Cleveland Browns before going on the road and falling to the Baltimore Ravens 6-26. It then put together its best performance of the season last week in a 37-19 road win at Carolina.

Tampa Bay (0-3) suffered a couple of close home losses to both Carolina (14-20) and St. Louis (17-19) to open the season. It was then embarrassed in a 14-56 road loss to the Atlanta Falcons last Thursday.

Whenever one team blows out the opposition last week while the other team gets blown out, the line is usually inflated the following week. That appears to be the case here as the Steelers are 7.5-point favorites over the Bucs.

Pittsburgh blew out Carolina 37-19 on the road in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate, while Tampa Bay was blown out on the road by Atlanta last week 56-14. Obviously, the betting public takes notice, and overreacts. That forces oddsmakers to adjust the lines accordingly.

I believe there is some value here in the Bucs catching more than a touchdown. They have had an extra three days to prepare for the Steelers after playing last Thursday, which will be a huge advantage.

Look for Lovie Smith to rally the troops and get the Bucs to put forth their best effort of the season as they look to avoid falling to 0-4 on the year. This team simply self-destructed against the Falcons by committing five turnovers, and they are much better team than they showed.

Pittsburgh has all kinds of injury problems right now. It lost three defensive starters in the win over Carolina last week, so that victory came with a price. Two starting linebackers went down in Jarvis Jones and Ryan Shazier. Jones will miss at least the next eight games, while Shazier is sure to have to sit out a couple games.

Cornerback Ike Taylor suffered a broken arm and is likely lost for the season. The Steelers were already thin at cornerback and linebacker, so these are huge losses. They were even forced to sign the 36-year-old former Steeler James Harrison out of retirement this week.

Tampa Bay’s biggest strength this season is a rushing offense that is averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Pittsburgh’s biggest weakness is a run defense that is allowing 5.0 yards per carry. The Steelers gave up 183 rushing yards to the Browns and 157 to the Ravens in the first two weeks. Then, Carolina inexplicably only ran the ball 10 times against them last week.

You can bet the Bucs won’t make the same mistake as they try and get Bobby Rainey and Doug Martin as many carries as possible. Rainey has been a bright spot for this team, rushing for 197 yards while averaging 5.3 yards per carry.

Plays on any team (TAMPA BAY) – a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a loss by 21 or more points are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Bryan Power

Carolina vs. Baltimore
Pick: Carolina

While I don't necessarily like either of these teams, I think that makes taking the points the way to go. Baltimore was very fortunate to win at Cleveland last week as the Browns (as they are known to do!) blew chances in all three phases of the game (offense, defense, special teams) in a failed attempt at winning the game outright. The Panthers are off a bad home loss to Pittsburgh Sunday night.

Because of that loss & the short number involved here, I'm figuring most will want to lay the points with the Ravens. After all, they smoked a Pittsburgh team that just beat Carolina. But because both of those games were on national television, the public perception has swung too strong in the one direction. Something to remember is that the Ravens are just 1-4 ATS their last five home games.

Carolina is also 4-1-1 ATS off its last six SU losses. Because many people (including myself) expected them to regress, there has been some solid early season value on them.

Swish Analytics

Atlanta vs. Minnesota
Pick: Atlanta

The highflying Atlanta Falcons soar into Minnesota high off a historic beatdown of Tampa Bay to take on a Vikings squad still scrambling for consistentcy on both sides of the ball. The models see a ton of value to be had in this game; purchase now to see who the data favors!

Coming off respective games with very different outcomes, the Vikings at home in the cozy confines of TCF Bank Stadium looking for win #2 against a Falcons squad that took care of business and then some against a woeful Tampa Bay squad last Thursday night. Having put on what some have described as the 6th most dominant performance in NFL history, our models predict the Falcons will keep their winning ways going in Week 4.

Despite their spirited effort in keeping the final score of last week’s game against the Saints respectable (though they failed to cover the 10.5 spread by 1 point), the Vikings are not a good team. Still reeling from the loss of their best offensive weapon in Adrian Peterson, starting QB Matt Cassel is now expected to miss significant time, having broken a number of bones in his foot. That means Teddy Bridgewater is stepping into the breach, and our algorithms don’t expect too much from the rookie; he’s projected to throw for 182.40 yards, 1.2 TDs and rush for 18.43 yards. Not bad, but not enough to overcome Matt Ryan at home, where he’s projected to throw for 287.96 yards and 1.78 TDs in 23.33 total completions.

Our SwishPower ranking models (which simulate 1000s of games between any 1 NFL team and every other team in the league) also paint a pretty picture for the away team in this one; Atlanta ranks as the 5th overall, the 12th best away team, and the #1 passing team, averaging 333.7 pass yards per game. Obviously, that last number is inflated from last weeks annihilation of the Bucs, but it still stacks up favorably against the Vikings, who rank 31th overall, 23rd at home and give up an average of 225.3 pass yards per game.

Overall, though, the models that matter the most have a high level of confidence in the Falcons: with a win confidence rating of 62.9% and a projected ROI of 6.6%, Atlanta more than earns their 4-star rating on the ML, especially with 13 out of our 15 models selecting them as the consensus winner. Lock in these lines now!

SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay +8 over PITTSBURGH

We’re not even going to talk much about the Steelers here because this has nothing to do with betting against them. The Steelers just happen to be the Buccaneers opponent this week when the Bucs are receiving an inflated price.

Tampa Bay embarrassed itself like few teams ever have, allowing eight touchdowns and making their Thursday night game against Atlanta look like a non-conference SEC beat-down. To make matters worse, the Buccaneers didn’t have another game for 10 days, which means they had that loss hanging over its head for the past 10 days. The Bucs have been the subject of millions of tweets and each one has been more insulting than the last. These ego-driven players have never been more embarrassed and there is nowhere to hide. And what about Lovie Smith? He was more embarrassed than his players were and we can assure you that’s it’s been 10 days of nothing but hard work and preparation ever since that debacle. Now, with an inflated number because their stock hasn’t been this low since they went 0-14 in 1976, the Buccaneers change QB’s and get several key players back as well. Pro Bowl running back Doug Martin (knee), All-Pro defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and defensive end Michael Johnson, a key free-agent addition are all expected to go. QB Mike Glennon takes over from the ineffective and injured Josh McCown. Glennon threw for two touchdowns in eight of his last 12 starts last year and is an upgrade from McCown but that’s not really the issue. The issue is that the Buccaneers have to respond after being humiliated on the field and even more humiliated on social media over the past 10 days.

Green Bay -2 over CHICAGO

The Bears are flying high right now with back-to-back road wins over the 49ers in prime time and a subsequent victory, also in prime time, against the New York Jets on Monday Night Football. Well, there’s an old cliché that says, “What comes up must come down” and the Bears are about to experience that. Chicago lost its home opener to the Bills. They were down 17-0 to San Fran in Week 2 but then the 49ewrs started to turn the ball over one possession after the next and the Bears rallied. In Week 3, the Bears were also the beneficiary of numerous turnovers by the Jets and won 27-19. Truth is, the Bears have been badly outplayed in almost every game and certainly in large portions in all three. After back-to-back prime time emotional victories, this is now a great spot to wager against the Bears.

The Packers have not looked sharp. They were destroyed in Week 1 against the Seahawks, barely escaped the Jets in Week 2 and scored a measly seven points in a 19-7 defeat at the hands of the Lions last week. It was not supposed to be this way for the preseason favorite to win the NFC North. Now the desperate Packers will play an overvalued team that they know how to beat. Jay Cutler has one win in nine games against the Packers. Chicago has become a one-dimensional offense, choosing to pass on almost every down and that is a strategy that cannot continue to win at this level. The Bears have been outgained by over 300 yards combined over their past two games including being outgained by 157 yards by the Jets. Green Bay hasn’t had much success running the ball this year but that all figures to change against the Bears. The Pack have played three outstanding rush defenses but Chicago’s is brutal, meaning that Eddie Lacy and Aaron Rodgers both figure to thrive with more space and time. This is a prolific, balanced Green Bay offense that will give the Bears fits all day long. Chicago has the victories so far but they don’t have the stats to back it up and so its charmed life will likely all come crashing down on them this week. We're seldom in favor of spotting road points but when the oddsmakers post a line that sees a 1-2 team, that has not looked sharp, a favorite on the road against a 2-1 team, we are best advised to take note and that's precisely what we're doing.

Jacksonville +13 over SAN DIEGO

We’ll admit it that it’s not easy to pull the trigger on Jacksonville but when everyone is selling one team and buying the other, it prompts us to take a close look. Jacksonville was projected to at least be competitive this year and they were, for one half in the first game of the year when they opened up a 17-point lead on the Eagles as a 10½-point pooch. Since then, the Jag-Wires have been outscored by a ridiculous count of 119-27 and 14 of those 27 points occurred when they were down by 30 points to the Colts last week. If not for the Buccaneers losing by 100 points or thereabouts against the Falcons in last week’s Thursday night prime timer, Jacksonville would be the butt of all social media jokes. Still, the Jags are 0-3 both against the spread and straight up and anyone that has wagered on them this year isn’t in line to wager on them again. The inevitable benching of Chad Henne took place last week after the first half and as a result, the Blake Bortles era has begun. Bortles threw for 223 yards in just one half in which the Jags actually outscored Indy, 17-14. Of course they were down 30-0 so it means nothing but at least he moved the chains, he got his feet wet and he was actually very good in the preseason. Bortles also instills some belief in his offense. The Jags have played three explosive offenses in Philadelphia, Washington and Indianapolis and will definitely find the slower pace of the Chargers much more to their liking. Remember, the Jags with Henne were just a 10½-point dog on the road against the explosive Eagles and now with their stock sinking lower than Bitcoins, they’re getting +13 with a better QB (Bortles is better than Henne) against a less explosive team.

By contrast, the Chargers are 3-0 against the spread and they just defeated Seattle and Buffalo in impressive fashion in back-to-back weeks. Deservingly, the Chargers stock is higher right now than it has been in years but if you wager on them here you are going to pay a premium to do so. The Chargers opened the year on Monday night in Arizona, played Seattle the following week and travelled cross-country to play the 2-0 Bills last week. That’s three highly intense games in three weeks and now the Chargers figure they get a big breather here. Emotionally, this is not a good spot for San Diego, as they are extremely likely to take the Jags lightly and show up in body only. On the depth chart, the Bolts are down to their #3 RB, as both Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews remain out. Incidentally, Donald Brown ran for 62 yards on 31 carries last week against the Bills. In summarizing, we have the 0-3 (ATS) Jags receiving inflated points against the 3-0 (ATS) Chargers coming off three consecutive emotionally charged games. One of the worst spots for a big favorite is playing a home game against a weak opponent after a huge road win as an underdog. The buy-low/sell high angle most certainly comes into play here.

SAN FRAN -4½ over Philadelphia

We don’t like the 49ers. They have been outscored 52-3 in the second half of games this year and have looked progressively worse in each game. In fact, last week we pointed out that the 49ers have been regressing for two years and that Colin Kaepernick is a pea-brained QB that doesn’t read defenses quick enough to succeed. After losing to the Cardinals last week and looking absolutely brutal in the second half, the entire betting world is switching gears on the 49ers and jumping ship. We’re switching gears also, only we’re going from betting against them to betting on them. We’ve often said the best time to jump on a team is when everyone else is jumping off and that applies here. The 49ers opened as a 5½-point favorite against the 3-0 Eagles and it comes as no surprise that Philadelphia is taking the majority of the money. We can also assure you without doubt that when the oddsmakers posted San Fran as a -5½ favorite, they anticipated the Eagles getting heavily backed and they are getting precisely what they asked for.

The Eagles stock is way too high right now. This is an average team that likes to play fast and that has knocked off Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Washington, three teams that can’t play defense. Against Indy, the Eagles had no business winning, as Andrew Luck threw a pick with 4 minutes remaining with the Colts up 7 and well within FG range. Hand the ball off and kick a FG and the Colts are up 10 with under four minutes remaining. Against Washington, the Eagles had every bounce go their way and barely escaped with a three point victory. Against Jacksonville, the Eagles were down 17. Philly Chip is not the first coach that has used this philosophy of trying to score quickly and win games 44-40. There have been a few before him and it’s never worked in the history of this league. The Eagles defense is brutal. Nick Foles is not Dan Fouts. This style of scoring quickly and having its defense on the field way too long each game will catch up to Philadelphia at some point. The oddsmakers are betting that it catches up to them this week and we couldn’t agree more. This week's visit from the Eagles is low-hanging fruit as statement games go and a response from the 49ers is in order. What a great time to jump on them.

Carolina +3½ over BALTIMORE

The Panthers were 2-0 in the first two weeks after shutting down the Buccaneers and Lions and were being praised for having one of the finest defenses in the league. With their stock high, the Panthers took a lot of money last week as a small favorite over the Steelers. The Steelers ruined the prime time party by undoing everything the media was pounding into our heads about the Panthers defense. It was a game that was watched by millions and not many of them want to come back on the Panthers this week. It’s usually bad strategy to bet against a team you just bet on the previous week based on one game and that’s what a lot of people are going to do this week. The Panthers pass defense was actually very good against the Steelers and it also shut down the Lions.

Letdown spots do not get much better than this for the Ravens. First, they opened the season against Cincinnati and Week 1 is always an emotional game. Leading up to Week 2, the Ravens were the center of attention in the NFL during the Ray Rice ordeal and had to play a Thursday prime time game against its biggest rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Not many gave them much of a chance against the Steelers but Baltimore went out and defeated Pittsburgh 26-6 in one of this year’s most misleading results. Last week, as a 2-point choice against another division rival, the Cleveland Browns, Baltimore won it on a FG as the clock ran out and celebrate they did. That’s three weeks of highly intense football against all three of its division rivals. The last two weeks have been an emotional time in which the Ravens have been surrounded by media regarding the Ray Rice fiasco. Now that the dust has settled, the Panthers come in here with their stock way down from where it was a week ago with a great chance to catch the Ravens napping. There’s no rivalry here. These two have played one game against each other since 2006. The Ravens are coming off back-to-back-to-back divisional games and they have the Colts on deck next week. Every theory we subscribe to comes into play here on the Panthers (the buy-low/sell high angle combined with the poor situational spot for the Ravens), thus making this a must play and very likely a winner.

Jimmy Boyd

Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets
Play: New York Jets +2

I’m expecting the Lions to be one of the biggest public plays on the board this weekend and it’s a big reason why I’m taking the Jets at home in this matchup. When a game looks this obvious in the NFL, it’s almost always a wise move to take the other side.

As ugly as New York looked against Chicago, you could make a strong case that the Jets should have won that game. They outgained Chicago 414 to 257 (+157) in total yards, but were done in by a couple of bone-head interceptions by Geno Smith, one was returned for a touchdown on the opening drive and the other deep in the endzone.

The Jets also caught a couple of bad breaks from the refs. They had a horrible pass interference call go against them to set up one of Chicago’s touchdowns and a play blown dead where they recovered a fumble and would have returned it for a touchdown.

There’s no doubt the Jets are going to come out extremely motivated to avoid falling to 1-3, as there chances of making the playoffs would take a dramatic hit. On the flip side of this, I think it’s going to be difficult for the Lions to bring the same intensity that they had last week against the Packers. That was a bigger win than a lot of people realize, as Detroit had never defeated Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

You also have to keep in mind just how much better Detroit is at home compared to on the road. The Lions have looked as good as any team in the league in their two home wins over the Giants and Packers, but were far from impressive in their lone road game against the Panthers, which they lost 7-24.

Detroit is just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games when listed as favorite and just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 when listed as a road favorite of 3-points or less. It’s also worth noting that Detroit played 4 road games last year after a win against a division rival. They lost all 4 of those contests both SU and ATS.

New York does have a bit of a scheduling disadvantage having to play on short rest after their game on Monday Night Football, but that’s negated some by the fact that they don’t have to travel. Adding to this is that the Jets are 16-6 ATS after playing their last game on Monday Night Football, 31-13 ATS in their last 44 home games after playing their last game at home and 18-4 ATS in their last 22 home games off a home loss.

Ray Monohan

Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets
Play: Detroit Lions -2

Detroit Lions -2 The Lions never get any respect. Detroit is taking their show to Broadway to face the Jets and should be favoured by a bit more than a couple of points. The Jets no longer have the cover corners to bother Megatron much and if they double up too much the Lions will burn them in other ways. Detroit is no juggernaut but the Jets have done little to indicate the only difference between these two is home field advantage.