Joe D'Amico
Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: hiladelphia Eagles +5
Philadelphia has impressed, as they have come from behind in all three games this season to be 3-0. The offense ranks 2nd in Points Scored (33.7), 2nd in Yards Passing, and 6th in Total Yards. This doesn't bode well for a San Fran team that has lost and failed to cover their L2, averaging just 17 PPG while their defense has allowed both Chicago and Arizona to pile up 51 points. Now their "D" is without DE and top pass-rusher, Aldon Smith and LB, Navorro Bowman. This tells me Nick Foles and his receiving corps will move the chains while McCoy and Sproles run the ball and allow Foles to check off. Philly's "D" is solid vs. the rush and in Total Yards but is mediocre against the pass. With Kaepernick struggling and definitely out-of-sync, this urges me to take the points here. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS their L4 games played at the 49ers while the 49ers are 1-4 ATS their L5 at home.
John Ryan
Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Minnesota Vikings +3
The simulator shows a high probability that the Vikings will win this game. I prefer making this a 5* play using the money line. The risk-reward profile of a combination wager using the line and ML jointly is not nearly as strong based on probability based ROI analyses. The Teddy Bridgewater era begins sooner than expected, but I strongly believe he is fully prepraed and confident making his first start at home at TCF Stadium. Bridgewater replaced Cassel in last week’s game against the New Orleans Saints and performed well considering the circumstances. On the 11 drop-backs where Bridgewater was under pressure, he completed four of six passes for 54 yards and ran three times. He also performed well when blitzed by going 6-of-9 for 70 yards without taking a sack. Bridgewater has an excellent offensive line to protect him. It is led by center John Sullevin, who has been one of the NFL's best in recent seasons - certainly among the top-3 in each of the past 3 seasons. In pass blocking grades, he is already better than in any season of his career. The Falcons enjoyed a route in their last game against the Bucs, will have a much more difficult time getting pressure consistently on Bridgewater. Matt Ryan is off to a blazing start with his deep ball accuracy. Yet, he now will have to pay very close attention to one of the best safeties in coverage defense in NFL in Harrison Smith. The SIM shows that the Vikings will gain a minimum of 125 rushing yards. In past games, the Vikings are a solid 12-3 ATS over the past three seasons (1-0 ATS this season) when they have gained 125+ rushing yards.
Marco D'Angelo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5
Considering the situation for these two teams Marco D'Angelo believes this Free NFL Pick is easy money. It is logical, due to past performance for both teams, to believe that the Pittsburgh Steelers will be overvalued heading into Sunday's home tilt at the "Bottle" against the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Steelers are coming off a huge road win against a good Carolina defense while Tampa Bay has played ugly and enter the Week 5 test at 0-3. Marco D'Angelo will take the value and run and his Free NFL Pick for Sunday gives Tampa a shot to win the game outright.
It is more than fair to note that in Week 3, last Sunday, Tampa Bay handed Atlanta an easy win and Pittsburgh played as well as they could, on the road in Carolina, and made a good defense look average in a 37-19 drubbing of the Panthers.
It is important to understand some of the key injuries that Pittsburgh suffered in last Sunday's win at Bank of America Stadium. A mediocre Steelers defense lost three starters and even though the Buccaneers haven't shown they can do anything but play poorly, at 0-3, they're getting many of their injured starters back for the Sunday test at Heinz Field.
The betting value for this NFL Free Pick rests with the 0-3 underdogs in Sunday afternoon's tilt despite the fact that Pittsburgh posted a huge 264-42 RY edge in rout of Carolina (21-pt cover) behind Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount (147 & 118 RYs) while quarterback Ben Roethlisberger chipped in offensively with a solid 22-of-30 (2/0).
That are a handful of trends that put the Steelers in a bad spot this Sunday, like their 1-6 ATS record in their last seven September games but the real issue is the plethora of injuries for the Steel, especially at linebacker and defensive back. Look for Tampa to take their big physical receivers and pound the middle of the Pittsburgh defense giving themselves a chance to pull off the big upset and win their first game of the season.
Wunderdog
Atlanta @ Minnesota
Pick: Under 47
The Atlanta Falcons have put up some strong offensive numbers early in the season as the offense has looked unstoppable, at least at home. The Falcons have generated 93 points in two home games, but just 10 in their only road contest. The Vikings' offense without Adrian Peterson has disappeared, as they have managed just 16 total points in the last two weeks. So, Atlanta is going likely going to have to put up a lot of points to get this one over the top. Minnesota has played well defensively where they rank #11 in fewest yards allowed, and allow just 18.7 points per game on the season, which places them #9 best in the league. I think that Atlanta will get over that, but the Minnesota offense not capable of taking advantage of weaknesses in the Falcon defense. The Falcons are 7-1 to the UNDER after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, and 42-17-3 to the UNDER after allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards. The last four meetings have failed to get to the total. Under Mike Smith, the Falcons are 13-5 to UNDER after a win over a division rival and 22-10 UNDER after a game in which they scored 30+ points. The UNDER gets the call in this one.
Bill Biles
Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Atlanta Falcons -3
The Falcons are usually not a great road team, but the traveling early in the year to the Vikings should be no problem for them. Vikings will be without 2 of there top offensive weapons in AP and Kyle Rudolph. Also Teddy Bridgewater will be making his first NFL start and that usually doesn't bode well for rookies. The Falcons have taken the last two meetings with Minnesota. Falcons are 4-0 ATS in last 4 games vs the NFC and 4-1 ATS in last 5 games overall
Jimmy Boyd
New York Jets +2
I’m expecting the Lions to be one of the biggest public plays on the board this weekend and it’s a big reason why I’m taking the Jets at home in this matchup. When a game looks this obvious in the NFL, it’s almost always a wise move to take the other side.
As ugly as New York looked against Chicago, you could make a strong case that the Jets should have won that game. They outgained Chicago 414 to 257 (+157) in total yards, but were done in by a couple of bone-head interceptions by Geno Smith, one was returned for a touchdown on the opening drive and the other deep in the endzone.
The Jets also caught a couple of bad breaks from the refs. They had a horrible pass interference call go against them to set up one of Chicago’s touchdowns and a play blown dead where they recovered a fumble and would have returned it for a touchdown.
There’s no doubt the Jets are going to come out extremely motivated to avoid falling to 1-3, as there chances of making the playoffs would take a dramatic hit. On the flip side of this, I think it’s going to be difficult for the Lions to bring the same intensity that they had last week against the Packers. That was a bigger win than a lot of people realize, as Detroit had never defeated Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
You also have to keep in mind just how much better Detroit is at home compared to on the road. The Lions have looked as good as any team in the league in their two home wins over the Giants and Packers, but were far from impressive in their lone road game against the Panthers, which they lost 7-24.
Detroit is just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games when listed as favorite and just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 when listed as a road favorite of 3-points or less. It’s also worth noting that Detroit played 4 road games last year after a win against a division rival. They lost all 4 of those contests both SU and ATS.
New York does have a bit of a scheduling disadvantage having to play on short rest after their game on Monday Night Football, but that’s negated some by the fact that they don’t have to travel. Adding to this is that the Jets are 16-6 ATS after playing their last game on Monday Night Football, 31-13 ATS in their last 44 home games after playing their last game at home and 18-4 ATS in their last 22 home games off a home loss.
John Fina
Green Bay Packers -2
On Sunday, the Green Bay Packers will do battle with the Chicago Bears. We will lay the points with the Green Bay Packers! The old saying goes that "What goes up must come down" and that is spot on when referring to the Chicago Bears this week. The Chicago Bears are coming off two emotional prime time wins (49ers and Jets), however, both those wins are very misleading. In fact, in both those wins they got out-gained by over 300 yards combined! Your only going to win so many games while being out-gained ("what goes up most come down"). Not only are the Chicago Bears wins misleading, but they are led by QB Jay Cutler who has been very "pass happy" this season. That is not going to work against the Green Bay Packers defense. In fact, the Green Bay Packers continue to prove they can beat QB Jay Cutler. In fact, QB Jay Cutler is 1-8 in his last nine games against the Green Bay Packers. The Chicago Bears rush defense has been awful this season. Look for the Green Bay Packers to run the ball well with RB Eddie Lacy, which is return will open up the passing game for the very talented QB Aaron Rogers. Give us the underrated Green Bay Packers, vs the overrated Chicago Bears, any day of the week! Lay the small number!
Tony Mathews
Indianapolis Colts -8
We will lay the points with the Indianapolis Colts as they face-off against the Tennessee Titans in Sunday's NFL action!
We see the Titans struggling on offense today. The Titans don't have much of an offensive attack with QB Jake Locker IN the game, and if he happens to be out this week they can be in big trouble. QB Jake Locker did not practice on Thursday (injured wrist), and as of writing this report (9/26/2014) is questionable for Sunday. However, even if he does play he will not be one hundred percent.
Many will rush to point out that the Indianapolis Colts have a poor defense. While the numbers may appear that way, they are skewed because of having to go up against two top offenses in the first two weeks of the season (Broncos & Eagles). To say the least, the Colts defense is better then what the numbers say.
QB Andrew Luck has not lost SU or ATS to the Titans in his career, and we see him leading his Colts to another SU/ATS win on Sunday.
Marc Lawrence
Detroit Lions at New York Jets
Pick: New York Jets
Edges - Jets: 6-0 ATS home after facing the Bears, and 15-2 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back home games. Lions: 1-8 ATS away of home with home on deck, and 2-17 ATS 2nd away game of season. With the Flyboys having out-gained Chicago 414-257 yards in Monday night’s loss to the Bears, and standing 12-1 ATS off Monday night games when facing .500 or greater opponents, we recommend a 1-unit play in the Jets.
Ray Monohan
Detroit Lions vs. NY Jets
Play: Detroit Lions -2
The Lions never get any respect. Detroit is taking their show to Broadway to face the Jets and should be favoured by a bit more than a couple of points. The Jets no longer have the cover corners to bother Megatron much and if they double up too much the Lions will burn them in other ways. Detroit is no juggernaut but the Jets have done little to indicate the only difference between these two is home field advantage.
Steve Janus
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9
Pittsburgh is being overvalued here off that big win over the Panthers and Tampa Bay off that ugly loss to the Falcons. Steelers defense was decimated by injuries, which is not being reflected in this number. Look for the Bucs to bounce back with big effort after the way they were embarrassed in front of a national audience.
Key Trends - Tampa Bay is 22-9 ATS in their last 31 after playing a game where 50 or more total points were score and 14-4 ATS after a game where 60 or more total points were scored. Pittsburgh is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 after rushing for more than 150 yards and 4-10 in their last 14 after a SU win by more than 14 points.
System - Teams who are averaging between 14-18 ppg (Tampa Bay) against a poor defensive team that's allowing 23-27 ppg after a game where 50 or more total points were scored are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Chip Chirimbes
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Tennessee Titans +9
Don't be concerned if Jake Locker doesn't play, he doesn't help that much when he's healthy. (He should have played baseball a catcher) This is a series that the Colts have dominated in recent seasons winning five straight and 10 of the last 11 meetings. It's difficult to make a case for the Titans but maybe if we look at the other side we see that teams (Colts) in Game 4 off their first win are 3-18-1 ATS as home favorites.
NFL Predictions
Carolina Panthers +3.5
I guess the consensus among the public after the Panthers took a beating in primetime is that they are suddenly a bad team. Hold on a second. This is the same team that finished 2nd in total defense last season, and while their numbers are skewed this season due to the 37 points they gave up a year ago, this is still a very good defense. The week prior they gave up just 7 points to a very good Detroit offense. The Panthers’ defense should respond after getting embarrassed against the Steelers in that matchup and come back to being a team that allowed only 15 points per game in 2013. I give an edge to the Panthers in the defensive department in this game, facing what I would call an average Ravens’ defense. The defense is average, and the offense has taken a big step back since winning the Super Bowl. Of course Ray Rice is absent giving the rushing attack a less than desirable attack, but Joe Flacco and the passing game has looked shaky. The offense picked the defense up when they won the Super Bowl, but I don’t think they have the offense to do that this season. Note that Flacco only has a quarterback rating of 82.3 heading into week 4. Despite getting shellacked a week ago, the Panthers’ defense has allowed an average of only 202 yards per game through the air. I feel like this is a 3 point game either way. The Panthers’ offense doesn’t get me all that excited, but the defense should make life tough on Flacco Sunday afternoon. I expect a low-scoring contest with a field goal separating the Panthers and Ravens.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
San Diego/ Jacksonville Over 44.5: Well the Chargers have played a couple of big games in a row and their defense has played very well, but still they may be playing over their heads a bit on that side of the ball and they will be facing Blake Bortles, who they have no film on. For the Chargers on offense they have put up 17 and 22 points on the road, but 30 at home vs a very tough Seattle defense. Now they take on the worst defense the league and a team that has allowed 40+ points in each of their last 2 games. The Chargers have become a dink and dunk offense but they figure to air it out here a bit more vs this defense, especially with their top 2 RBs out for this game. I expect the Jags to throw allot with Bortles under center, while the Chargers will put it up plenty here as well. I see a 31-17 type game in this one.
Green Bay -1.5 over CHICAGO: I know the Bears are an improved team and that this is Early in the year, but this has to be a tired team as their last 2 preseason games were on the road and then they had a home game to open the season, before going to the West Coast and back to the east coast the last two weeks. Oh yeah they are playing on a short week here as well. Now they have to face Aaron Rodgers and this offense that is angry and hungry after putting up just 7 points last week. They should put up plenty on a Chicago defense that allowed Geno Smith to throw the ball all over the field vs them and oh yeah the Packers do know how to score TDs in the Red Zone. The Bears were let off the hook last week vs the Jets as just struggled in the Red Zone. The Bears won't be that lucky in this one. Despite the 2-1 start for Chicago they are averaging just 300 ypg of total offense. They have passed for 236 ypg, but the Pack allows just 198.3 ypg through the Air. Rodgers owns this team and he will do so here with a win of at least a TD.
BEST OF THE REST
Atlanta/ Minnesota Under 47: The Minnesota offense was a better offense with Cassel at QB, but still they scored just 16 points in their last 2 weeks. Yes Teddy has had a full week to prepare for this game, and yes the Atlanta defense has been horrible this year, but Teddy was not expected to start this year and I can’t see him coming in and just winging the ball all over the field. The Vikings need to control clock here with their ground game, play conservative and rely on their solid defense if they hope to win this game. The Falcons will throw it all over the filed, but I don’t see them hitting allot of big plays as the Vikings don’t give up many. This OU line is way to high for having one team on the field that just can’t score and has a solid defense as well. We also note that the Under is 4-0 the last 4 in this series. This game may be played in the 30s.
Joe Gavazzi
NY Jets +2
One cannot help but note the early season pattern in the results of 2-1 SU ATSDetroit. The home team in Detroit games is a perfect 3-0 SU ATS, winning each contest by 12 or more points. This includes Detroit’s draining 19-7victory at home vs. Green Bay last week, in which they outrushed the Packers115-76. It would certainly seem a “downer” for Detroit, based on that early season pattern. For Detroit is recently just 5-16 ATS away and just4-13 ATS following a victory. That works nicely with the Jets’ probablebounce back on their home field. In the 27-19 MNF home loss to the Bears,the Jets won the battle of yards, 114-60 overland and 414-257 overall. That made it consecutive losses for the NYers. They look to redeem themselves on this field just 6 days later. Knowing that the Jets are15-2 ATS in consecutive home games, works nicely with the abovesituation. Finally, the Jets’ success at the point of attack seals the deal for us. The Fly Boys are outrushing their opponents after 3 games bya margin of 157/4.9 to 55/2.8. That latter set of numbers is the best inthe NFL. Home road dichotomy joins with a positive situation and theJets’ strong running numbers for this Dog of the Day.