Anthony Michael
New Orleans Saints -3
The Cowboys have won 2 games in a row but have not exactly beat awesome teams. Romo has looked pretty good in those games but do you really think he can look good 3 games in a row? I don’t. The Saints are off a win but still pretty desperate sitting at 1-2 on the season. They have covered 8 of their last 10 against Dallas and the Cowboys have struggled badly at home early in the season. Lay this small number with the Saints here.
River City Sharps
Minnesota Vikings +3
The Teddy Bridgewater era finally begins in Minnesota on Sunday as their number one draft pick and franchise QB gets his first NFL start. Normally, analysts and bettors alike would we running as far from the Vikings as possible, but we really like Bridgewater and what he can bring to the table. He was clearly the most “NFL ready” QB in this draft and we think you will see a fairly conservative offense in his first start with plenty of check downs and dump offs to Asiata and others out of the backfield. That said, the main reason we are siding with the home team regards their opponent, the Atlanta Falcons. While they completely dismantled the Tampa Bay Bucs in their last game, the Falcons are clearly a different team away from home, most notably QB Matt Ryan. Keep in mind that this game isn’t being played in a dome as the Vikings new stadium is being constructed, so this will be played at the University of Minnesota’s TCF Bank Stadium. Ryan has traditionally struggled on the road in outdoor stadiums. The Vikings are 10-1 ATS in home games vs. excellent teams, outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992, and are 13-4 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is just 14-29 ATS off a home win against a division rival since 1992. Bridgewater has given the Minnesota fans something to smile about in what has already been a tough season and that starts with a win over the Falcons on Sunday.
EZWINNERS
Baltimore Ravens -3
I think we are starting to see the regression of the Panthers that so many of us expected this season. Carolina looked horrible in all aspects of the game against Pittsburgh last Sunday night. Cam Newton is still banged up, is not in sync with his receivers and is not much of a threat to leave the pocket and run. The powerful running game of Carolina is also hurting as all three of their top running backs Williams, Stewart and Tolbert all have some type of injury. The defense was shredded by a team that hadn’t scored a touchdown in over six quarters and the Panthers have issues with the kick return game. Baltimore is coming off of a huge confidence building win in Cleveland and I expect them to build on that in this game. Joe Flacco continues to make big throws in the clutch and I expect ex Carolina Panther Steve Smith Sr. to have a huge game against his former team. Vegas hasn’t caught up to how bad this Carolina team really is as of yet so this number is very reasonable. Lay the points.
Tampa Bay Bucs +7
Everyone watched both of these teams last week on national TV. The Bucs were destroyed by the Falcons on Thursday night while the Steelers bulldozed the Panthers in Carolina for a win on Sunday Night Football. Most people will expect Pittsburgh to not have many problems with Tampa Bay in this game, but I don’t believe that to be the case. The Bucs have had extra time to prepare for this game and Mike Glennon will be making the start at quarterback for Tampa. I feel the offense will be much better with Glennon under center. Starting quarterback Josh McCown has not looked like the player that stepped in for the Bears last year and looked so good. McCown looks like the journeyman quarterback that he is. Pittsburgh also lost three key offensive players to injury in the win over Carolina. Rookie inside linebacker Ryan Shazier (sprained MCL), cornerback Ike Taylor (broken right forearm) and outside linebacker Jarvis Jones (wrist). The Steelers exploded on offense last week, but I’m not so sure they will keep that going. Tampa Bay’s defense was destroyed by the Falcons, but lets not also forget Pittsburgh’s offensive struggles before the second half of their game against the Panthers. Take the points.
Jacksonville Jagurs +12.5
I cashed in a winner last week with their Chargers as they traveled to the east coast and knocked off the 2-0 Bills. Many predicted that to be a flat spot for San Diego. Many said the Chargers were in a letdown spot after knocking off the Super Bowl champion Seahawks and being in a bad scheduling spot having to make the long trip east for an early kickoff. I think that thinking was a week premature as I think this week is the letdown spot. After the upset home win two weeks ago and the long travel last week for the win how can this team be fired up to play an 0-3 Jaguars team? Jacksonville was hammered once again last week by the Colts at home, but one thing good came out of that loss and that was the beginning of the Blake Bortles era at quarterback. Bortles played very well this preseason and brings some swag and excitement to this offense that does have some talent around him. San Diego’s offense also took another hit in their win last week as running back Danny Woodhead was injured and will miss this game along with starting running back Ryan Matthews. Take the points.
Minnesota Vikings +3
I really like the Vikings in this spot. Atlanta absolutely destroyed the Bucs at home last Thursday night as we cashed on the Falcons, and now this week they are only favored by 3 points against Minnesota? The Vikings lost at New Orleans but put a fight in the 20-9 loss. Minnesota starting quarterback Matt Cassel was injured and rookie Teddy Bridgewater stepped in to complete 12 out of 20 passes for 150 yards in a very tough environment. This week Bridgewater will get a full week of preparation. Over the past few seasons a team starting their backup quarterback for the first time other than in week one (this applies to Tampa Bay and Jacksonville also this week) has covered the spread at an extremely high rate. In week 2 the Rams cashed in this spot at Tampa Bay. The Vikings were in a very tough spot last week dealing with the Adrian Peterson mess and the uncertainty if he was playing or not and having to travel to New Orleans. Minnesota defense did a pretty solid job against the high powered Saints offense and I expect them to hold their own against a Falcons team that is not the same team on the road as they are at home in the dome. Take the points.
Kyle Hunter
Free Pick
Philadelphia vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -4½
The Philadelphia Eagles aren't going to be able to get away with falling behind double digits on a weekly basis in the NFL. San Francisco comes into this game at 1-2, and this is a huge game for the Niners. The 49ers defense has been tremendous this year, but their offense has been held back by Colin Kaepernick. I think Kaepernick will look a lot better against an Eagles defense that is one of the worst in the league. The line here opened at -3.5 and was quickly adjusted up to -4.5 despite the public backing the Eagles. There is sharp money on the 49ers. Jim Harbaugh's team should be ready to go in what is almost a must win game for them. San Francisco brings their A game for the first time this year. Take the 49ers.
Scott Spreitzer
Oakland Raiders +3.5
Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins' offense are struggling badly. Tannehill is averaging the lowest amount of yards per pass of any NFL starter so far this season. They can't go deep and doing nothing but dinking-and-dunking is not the way to get the job done in the NFL. You have to be able to test deep waters and stretch defenses, but the Dolphins have been unable to do so. The Raider defense has played well against the pass, ranked 4th in the league, making Miami's chances of turning things around this week unlikely. Oakland contained the Patriots' offense, holding them to 4.2 yards per play in last week's 16-9 loss after having been within 1 point of the Pats early in the fourth quarter. Miami allowed 34 points in a 19-point home loss to KC last week and they have not rebounded well, going 0-5 ATS after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. With the turmoil at QB and decent defensive play from Oakland, we expect the Raiders to give the Dolphins more than they can handle. I'm recommending a play on the Raiders, plus the points on Sunday.
Tony George
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Green Bay Packers -1
This is a go against Chicago, on a short week off a MNF game where the Jets gave them therm all they wanted. It has been a brutal 2 weeks for the Bears on the road, however Green Bay is a sore spot with them and they never play against them very well, and it is desperation time for Green Bay in only the 4th game of the season, with many doubters and they have not looked good on offense. That is about to change. Lacey will be able to run the ball here and that sets up Rodgers at QB to throw it against a suspect secondary, and the Bears defense is not all that good folks with Tillman out plus others. Look for Green Bay to score plenty here and get the win at Solider Field in what may be a shootout. There is a reason this line flipped from the Bears opening as a fav and almost a 3 point line move as of Friday to the Packers.
Rob Vinciletti
Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -3
Baltimore has quietly played very well this season and comes off a nice road win vs the Browns. The Ravens have covered 8 of 9 off a win vs Cleveland vs a team who lost and failed to cover. Balty is a cool 10-1 ats as a home favorite if they won and covered and have 2+ road games up next. The Panthers were crushed last week at home the Steelers and have failed to cover 10 of 11 vs AFC Teams off an AFC Game if their opponent today is a winning team. The Ravens are playing their 3rd home game in week and teams in that scenario have covered 7 straight if they won their last 2 games and their opponent lost as a favorite in their last game. Look for Baltimore to get the win today.
Oliver Alonso
Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers -4½
I expect that a lot of bettors have fell off the 49ers bandwagon. That's just the way I like it. Granted the 49ers have some deficiencies on defense compared to recent years. However this is still a very good football team, and is very capable of hanging a big number on the board offensively. After looking horrible in attempting to stop the run during their season opening loss to Buffalo, the 49ers have allowed an average of just 2.9 yards per rush in their previous 2-games.
They hold a huge +2.9 rush differential over the Eagles heading into this game. The Eagles are coming off consecutive 3-point wins, and had to rally from 17-0 down in their season opener versus Jacksonville. I'm sure there will be many out there that are thinking they're getting an absolute steal with the Eagles this week. I'm not one of them. Any home favorite of 9.5 or less in game 4 of the season or beyond, coming off a straight up favorite loss, versus an opponent coming off 2 or more wins in a row, and they scored 35-points or more in their previous game, 16-1 SUATS since 1984.
Joseph D'Amico
Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: Philadelphia Eagles +5
Philadelphia has impressed, as they have come from behind in all three games this season to be 3-0. The offense ranks 2nd in Points Scored (33.7), 2nd in Yards Passing, and 6th in Total Yards. This doesn't bode well for a San Fran team that has lost and failed to cover their L2, averaging just 17 PPG while their defense has allowed both Chicago and Arizona to pile up 51 points. Now their "D" is without DE and top pass-rusher, Aldon Smith and LB, Navorro Bowman. This tells me Nick Foles and his receiving corps will move the chains while McCoy and Sproles run the ball and allow Foles to check off. Philly's "D" is solid vs. the rush and in Total Yards but is mediocre against the pass. With Kaepernick struggling and definitely out-of-sync, this urges me to take the points here. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS their L4 games played at the 49ers while the 49ers are 1-4 ATS their L5 at home.
Brad Diamond
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Indianapolis Colts -7
Well I can speak to a relative experience considering my play on Indy (vs. Philly) on Monday night as they were clocked by the 3-0 Eagles. So I stayed away from the JAX game figuring the Colts could come in a little flat….not so! In fact, QB Luck (31-39, 370) and company mauled the hapless franchise 44-17 giving high alert to the traffic center on 1-95 that all living beings were leaving the area for shelter. Jacksonville had an unusual first-half, 55 yards of offense. In contrast, we thought Tennessee (1-2) would have a solid season, but have lost BB games (Cincinnati and Dallas) after securing a major win (26-10) over KC in week #1 at Kansas City. Tennessee has a negative 26 point differential, while scoring only 4 touches this season. Now they must face Indy who has had great success in the division taking 8 straight games. The Titans are away down the list in total offense with less than 15 points per game as a team (Indy is ranked #2 in total offense 31.7 ppg). Plus they usually start with poor field position logging #14 out of 16 in the AFC in kick-off returns. The key problem offensively for Tennessee is no real discernable deep threat and QB Locker has looked less than mediocre. Locker is ? for Sunday. Remember the Titans are 1-10 SU up in the series, despite playing here with a top-five defense. Series techs have the Colts 5-0 ATS L5. Overall Indianapolis takes out these
Jesse Schule
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Green Bay Packers -120
The Packers will be on the road this week, taking on their bitter rivals the Chicago Bears. This is a must win game for the visitors, who have had a tough start to the season. They have owned the Bears winning seven of eight in this series since 2010. The only game the Bears managed to win, was a 27-20 win at Lambeau last year, with Seneca Wallace filling in at QB for the injured Aaron Rodgers.
The Packers avenged that loss in Chicago on the final Sunday of the regular season, with Aaron Rodgers throwing for 318 yards and a pair of TDs. Green Bay's offense hasn't been able to get going this season, but this match-up versus a banged up Bears defense could be just what the doctor ordered.
Chicago's defensive backs have been dropping like flies, last week safety Chris Conte and corner Ryan Mundy both left with injuries, and a season ending injury to veteran Charles Tillman leaves them pretty thin. Not an ideal situation as they get ready to face a QB that has terrorized them in the past.
Jay Cutler has lost nine of his 10 career starts versus the Packers, throwing 18 picks in those games. He's going to be hard pressed to avoid another stinker, as he may be without his starting center (Roberto Garza) and left guard (Matt Slauson).
History favors Green Bay, and I think the Packers will keep that trend going here on Sunday.
Joe Gavazzi
New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Dallas Cowboys +3
Credit to New Orleans for rebounding from their 0-2 SU ATS road start with a workmanlike 20-9 victory over Minnesota! In that contest, the Saints outrushed the Vikings 108-59 en rout to a 396-247 yardage edge. Meanwhile, the Cowboys were surviving St. Louis (34-31) despite the fact that St. Louis held a dominant yardage edge of 448-340. After trailing 21-0 to the Rams, the comeback tied the franchise record for the biggest comeback in history. Fundamentals aside, the team trends of these foes are most compelling. With HC Payton roaming the New Orleans sidelines, the road team is just 5-39 ATS, including 2-17 ATS recently in New Orleans’ contest. Fitting nicely with that dichotomy is the record of the underdog in Dallas’ games, which is now a lofty 41-16 ATS. Should these trends persist, the Cowboys are clearly the play.
Bill Biles
Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Atlanta Falcons -3
The Falcons are usually not a great road team, but the traveling early in the year to the Vikings should be no problem for them. Vikings will be without 2 of there top offensive weapons in AP and Kyle Rudolph. Also Teddy Bridgewater will be making his first NFL start and that usually doesn't bode well for rookies.
The Falcons have taken the last two meetings with Minnesota.
Falcons are 4-0 ATS in last 4 games vs the NFC and 4-1 ATS in last 5 games overall
Bruce Marshall
Jaguars at Chargers
Pick: Over
Blake Bortles at least will breathe a little life into Jags, although Jax has to start protecting QBs better (Henne and Bortles already sacked 17 times!). The combo of Bortles looking deep and possibility of TOs (2 picks last week) ought to help the "over" prospects. SD not running too well and injuries mounting at RB but that might help Bolts speed up this game with Rivers throwing more often (Bolts often go on time-consuming drives when RBs are healthy, which slows down games and keeps down scores, but maybe not this week). Jags dynamics and possibility of sloppy game help "over" prospects, especially as Jax allowing staggering 40 ppg.
Ari Atari
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: San Diego Chargers -12½
You can't make these spreads high enough when teams go up against the Jags. San Diego Is dominating the AFC South 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11. Jacksonville is 0-5-1 in their last 6 overall ATS. San Diego can run this score up to win by 20+ even if they let off the gas for a quarter. It's a good play for 1 unit or 1 star.