DAVE COKIN
DETROIT LIONS AT NEW YORK JETS
PLAY: NEW YORK JETS +1.5
I never really know how to bill a team like the Jets. One can argue that the fact they’re 1-2 when they could easily be 3-0 indicates they’re a bad team. Or maybe they’re just underachievers. Either way, there is zero question in my mind that this team should be sporting a winning record right now. That’s kind of the rub here, as I’m asking a team that is entirely capable of screwing this up to play to its potential.
The Jets obliterated the Raiders every way except with the final score in Week One. They had Green Bay on the canvas in Week Two, with a huge lead, and they managed to lose that game. This past Monday, the Jets were clearly superior to Chicago, but botched it when it mattered most and ended up with the loss.
I’m hoping the Jets learned their lesson on Monday. This team is going to be solid if they play power football and don’t ask Geno Smith to do what he’s currently not capable of doing. The defense is strong, and there’s no reason I can see other than the coaching that this team can’t be a +.500 entry.
As for the Lions, I’m not convinced of anything. Good work in Week One, but that was against Giants team that is not nearly as dangerous as the one we’ve started to see the last couple of weeks. Detroit picked up its other win last week and they looked pretty good against the Packers. But it’s also true that Green Bay looked pretty bad in that game as well. The one Lions road test to date was a fairly substantial loss at Carolina.
There’s no mystery for me here. I have the Jets as the better team, and if they can for once not be their own worst enemy, there’s no reason they shouldn’t win this. I don’t agree with the line on the game, and feel it’s a public perception number off the Monday night loss and the Jets now being 1-2. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve got an open mind on the Lions and I might change my view of this team if they win here. But the setup seems right to me for the hosts, and for what it’s worth, the Jets will be the sharp side in this contest. I see the Jets as absolutely playable as long as they’re the dog.
Dr Bob
Green Bay (-2) 27 CHICAGO 23
Green Bay hasn’t played up to expectations so far this season and last week they were dominated by a Lions team that is much improved. They now stand at just 1-2 on the season and face a critical divisional game in Chicago this week. A lot has been made about the Packers ground game this season and how it has not been able to get on track, but the truth is that it is better than it appears. While the Packers are only averaging 79 rushing yards at 3.8 ypr, they have generated those numbers against teams that play excellent run defense in the Seahawks, Jets and Lions, who combined have allowed only 65 yards at 3.1 ypr. I expect the Packers rushing numbers will improve this week against a Bears rush defense that is allowing 147 yards per game at 5.2 ypr to teams that gain 135 yards at 4.7 ypr and was one of the worst in the league last season as well. I also believe that the Packers passing offense will pick it up this week as with Rodgers at quarterback last season, they had my top rated passing offense. They should be able to exploit a Bears pass defense that is below average and banged up in the secondary. Safeties Chris Conte, Danny McCray and Ryan Mundy all left with injuries on Monday night, forcing Chicago to turn to rookie Brock Vereen and Ahmad Dixon.
On the other side of the ball, the Bears offense has been just about average so far this season, gaining 302 yards at 5.1 yppl against teams that allow 312 yards at 5.1 yppl, and have a tough match-up against a Packers pass defense that is much improved this season. With OLB Julius Peppers making his return to Chicago, where he played last season, as well as Clay Matthews providing pressure on Cutler, I expect a Green Bay pass defense that is allowing just 198 passing yards at 6.0 yps to contain the Bears attack.
Green Bay knows that they can’t afford to lose another divisional game after losing to the Lions last week and will be focused on this game. The Bears had some fortunate bounces and calls go their way on Monday night that played a role in the outcome, as they were outplayed from the line of scrimmage 260 yards at 4.3 yppl to 414 yards at 5.8 yppl for the Jets. The Bears are +4 in turnover differential this season and that has played a big role in their victories. I think that we have an unusual situation with an under the radar, motivated Packers team playing an overvalued Bears team and as a result I like the Packers.
Detroit (-2) 24 NY JETS 20
The 2-1 Lions have played well at home this season with a 2-0 record, beating the Giants and the Packers by an average score of 21-11, but they lost their only road game this season to the Panthers by 17 points. They come off of a big 19-7 divisional win against the Packers in a game where their banged up secondary played well, holding the Packers to 223 total yards at 4.4 yppl. Considering that Detroit played their fourth, fifth and sixth slot cornerbacks of the season Sunday and lost linebacker Stephen Tulloch to an ACL early in the game, it’s amazing that they held the Packers to just 7 points. They really dominated the action in that game and overcame a -2 turnover differential to post the win. Overall, the Lions sport the best defense in the league so far, allowing only 245 total yards at 4.3 yppl to teams that generate 314 yards at 5.1 yppl on average. They’ll face a Jets team this week off of a tough Monday night loss where New York won the yardage battle but were -2 in turnovers and had a couple of bad calls go against them, one directly resulting in a non-touchdown on a clear fumble recovery and return for a Jets touchdown. The Jets are 1-2 but have played better than their record indicates and could very easily be 2-1. Statistically, the numbers indicate that the Jets are about average overall on offense with a better than average run game and passing game that is just below average. Defensively, the Jets have been very good and feature a rush defense that is impenetrable and a pass defense that has played pretty well despite the injuries. Turnovers have been the big problem for New York as they have suffered from a -4 turnover differential so far on the season.
I have a hard time believing that the Jets offensive line will be able to prevent the Detroit defensive line from being disruptive and as a result this doesn’t look like a good matchup for New York. The Jets will have a hard time running the ball and if they can’t run, Geno Smith will be asked to take on a bigger role than he is capable of, and that could be trouble for the Jets. In fact, if he is pressured as I suspect he will be, he will get rattled. Last week against the Bears he was 1-for-11 under duress including an interception according to ESPN Stats & Information. Meanwhile, the Lions strength is in their very good passing game that averages 277 yards per game at 6.9 yps and with Megatron and the rest of the Lions offense playing against reserves in the New York secondary, this is also a bad match-up. My ratings favor the Lions here by about 3.5 points but the Jets qualify in a good 99-38-4 situation and benefit from a negative 107-195-8 situation that plays against the Lions. With line value and match-ups going one way and the situations the other, I’ll pass but lean with the Lions.
Miami (-4) 22 OAKLAND 17
After a poor showing last week in their 15-34 home loss to the Chiefs, there has been talk of a possible QB change in Miami as Head Coach Joe Philbin had been non-committal in regards to starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill this week. That appears to have changed, however, and it looks like he will get the start. Tannehill and the Dolphins offense have not been good this year, generating an average of just 190 passing yards at 4.3 yps to teams that allow 220 yards at 5.7 yps while getting sacked at an above average rate. With a new offensive line as well as a new offensive scheme implemented by offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, there were bound to be growing pains. They’ll face a Raiders defense that has played better recently, allowing the Patriots just 304 total yards at 4.5 yppl last week, and for the season are now allowing just 183 passing yards at 6.3 yps to teams that gain 209 yards at 6.1 yps. Miami should attack on the ground as they have run the ball well and are matched up with a Raiders defense that has defended the run at a below average level so far this season.
On the other side, Oakland and rookie QB Derek Carr will have a hard time generating offense against a Dolphins defense that has played just better than average. That’s because the Raiders offense has not been good, averaging just 255 total yards of offense per game at 4.7 yppl against teams that allow 310 yards at 5.1 yppl. Oakland has had major scoring problems this season and I don’t see that changing much Sunday. The Raiders have only had one touchdown with the game not out of reach and that came on a short field in the first half against the New York Jets opening day. This game is in London so there is no home field advantage for either team and my ratings favor the Dolphins here by about 4.5 points. There are also no situations in play on this game so I don’t have much of an opinion but I’ll lean with the Dolphins based on the slight line value.
Tennessee (+7.5) 21 INDIANAPOLIS 28
The Titans were crushed last week in Cincinnati, losing 7-33, while the Colts were busy dominating the Jaguars on their way to an eventual 44-17 win. I expect a bounce back from the Titans here although they may not have QB Jake Locker as he in dealing with an injury to his wrist. Statistically, the Titans appear to match up pretty well with Indianapolis. They compare favorably from an overall yppl perspective with a +.8 for Tennessee and a -.4 for the Colts. The run game of the Titans should have success as they have gained 132 yards per game at 5.2 ypr and face a Colts run defense that has not been good, allowing 113 yards at 4.5 ypr against teams that gain just 84 yards at 3.7 ypr on average.
Andrew Luck should have some success against the pass defense of the Titans with all of the weapons at his disposal but the Titans have been good so far this season defending the pass, allowing just 170 yards at 5.2 yps against teams that have averaged 222 yards at 6.7 yps. Part of that has been the success that teams have had running on the Titans and their ability to convert third downs, as well as the Titans lack of ability to sustain drives and convert those drives into points.
I don’t have much of an opinion on this game as there are no situations that apply and my ratings favor the Colts by just about 7 points. It’s really a toss up to me, but based on the ratings I’ll lean slightly with the Titans to bounce back.
Jacksonville (+13) 16 SAN DIEGO 27
Since the first half of the opening game against the Eagles, Jacksonville has been outscored 27-119 and trailed the Colts last week at halftime 30-0 before they scored 17 second half points in garbage time. This is a team that has major holes to patch across the board and the biggest change this week will be the switch to rookie QB Blake Bortles. He doesn’t have a lot to work with on offense with a poor offensive line and inexperienced skill position players. And he won’t get any help from a defense that is allowing 466 yards and 40 points per game. On the other side, they’ll face a Chargers team that improved as the season wore on in 2013 and look even better so far this season. QB Philip Rivers has been lights out, passing for 255 yards at 7.7 yps against teams that allow 6.2 yps and should move the ball well against a Jaguars pass defense that is allowing 306 yards per game at 6.9 yps. The Chargers have not been able to run the ball so far this year however, and have lost RB’s Ryan Matthews and Danny Woodhead the past couple of weeks. The elixir might be a Jaguars run defense that has allowed 160 yards at 4.7 ypr so far this year. In addition, the Jaguars have had a terrible time covering tight ends and that is a major problem against a Chargers team with two very good ones in Antonio Gates and LaDarius Green.
Jacksonville qualifies in a very good 150-90-2 situation but I can’t play on them considering the absolute lack of competitiveness they have shown. My ratings favor the Chargers here by about 14 points and the match-up’s all favor San Diego but based on the situation and with a contrarian perspective, I’ll lean to the Jaguars to keep it reasonably close and to stay within the large number.
Atlanta (-3) 24 MINNESOTA 20
We have two teams going in opposite directions here with Atlanta destroying Tampa Bay 56-14 last Thursday night and the Vikings losing their last two by an average of 8-25. In addition to losing games recently, the Vikings have also been losing players and this week they will be without Week 1 starters Adrian Peterson, TE Kyle Rudolph, QB Matt Cassel, and guard Brandon Fusco on offense. Rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater will get his first start after completing 12-20 passes for 150 yards last week in relief of an injured Matt Cassel and will be facing an Atlanta defense that had poor games against Drew Brees and Andy Dalton, but played well last week against the Bucs. Defensively, the Vikings hope LB Chad Greenway can play with hand and rib injuries as he is their defensive play-caller and has the assignment of getting their defense set and steadied. That will be an important role this week against the Falcons, who operate one of the fastest paced offenses in the league and a QB in Matt Ryan that has been tearing defenses up, passing for an average of 322 yards at 8.7 yps, near the top of the league in both categories. In fact, the Falcons offense is averaging 455 yards at 6.9 yppl against teams that allow 373 yards at 5.6 yppl on average, leading the league.
Although Atlanta’s defense has been below average so far, I still think that Minnesota will have a hard time moving the ball in this game. If we take out their first game where they had Adrian Peterson and ran the ball 28 times for 188 at 6.7 ypr and use only their last two games without Peterson, the Vikings are averaging only 19 carries for 58.5 yards per game at 3.1 ypr. If they don’t have a running game here, Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings offense will be hard pressed to keep up with the Falcons offense.
Atlanta is coming off of a mini-bye so they should be well rested but the concern for me here is the prospect of a let-down. The Falcons do qualify in a negative 77-126-4 situation that plays against them here that offers that possibility, but Minnesota also qualifies in several negative statistical match-up indicators that are 192-312-17, 16-44 and 83-143-8. Atlanta struggled two weeks ago against the Bengals as Matt Ryan could only generate 212 passing yards at 4.6 yps and was intercepted three times in their 10-24 loss. New Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer was the defensive coordinator of the Bengals last season and will have a similar game plan set up to slow down the Falcons offense. Defensively, the Vikings are better than you think. My ratings favor the Falcons in this game by about 1 point so I’ll pass but lean very slightly to the Falcons in what is essentially a toss-up for me.
SAN FRANCISCO (-5) 29 Philadelphia 23
After blowing a 17-0 lead against the Bears two weeks ago, and then relinquishing a 14-6 lead last week in Arizona, the 49ers find themselves at 1-2 on the season and tied for last place in the division. I’m certain that isn’t sitting very well with Coach Harbaugh and he will have the 49ers prepared to play a good game this Sunday against the Eagles. I’m just not sure they can get it done. This is an interesting game on a lot of levels starting with the ability of the Eagles offense -playing behind a really banged up offensive line- to score points against a San Francisco defense that has been decimated by off-season losses and injuries. Despite the injuries, the Eagles offense hasn’t slowed down and put up 37 points last week against a Redskins defense that had only allowed 27 points in their first two games combined. Part of the reason is that Coach Kelly has a unique practice system where he mixes in his back-ups more often than other teams and as a result they are ready when called upon. There have been some noticeable differences versus last year, however, when the Eagles led the league in rushing. This season they are only averaging 109 yards per game at 3.9 ypr against teams that allow 113 yards at 4.2 ypr and last week they were shut down completely by the Redskins, gaining just 56 yards on 24 carries for a meager 2.3 ypr. I expect that the Eagles rushing woes will continue in this game as they’ll be matched-up against a 49ers rush defense that is allowing just 88 yards at 4.3 ypr. However, if the 49ers can’t generate pressure on the quarterback, the Eagles very good passing offense will tear them apart. The Philadelphia passing offense is near the top of the league so far this season, averaging 310 yards at 7.7 yps.
If the 49ers offense is to keep pace with the Eagles, QB Colin Kaepernick will likely have to do much of his damage in the passing game, where Philadelphia is vulnerable. Overall, the 49ers offensive attack has been average so far this season, both running and passing the ball. They’ll have some opportunities against a Philadelphia pass defense that is below average and has allowed 280 passing yards per game at 6.6 yps against teams that gain 271 yards at 6.4 yps on average.
My ratings favor the 49ers by just about 2.5 points and the Eagles benefit from a negative 31-74-4 situation that plays against the 49ers here. However, this is a good spot for San Francisco to play well as they are coming off of two consecutive losses while the Eagles are coming off of a competitive and down to the wire divisional win. The cross- country travel doesn’t help the Eagles nor does that fact that Harbaugh is 2-0 SU and ATS off two consecutive losses, both as a short favorite, winning by an average score of 31-9. One of those was in Week 4 last season where they were a 3 point favorite and destroyed the Rams 35-11. Although it’s a small sample size and he is playing against a different animal in Kelly’s Eagles, I’ll lean slightly with the 49ers.
DALLAS (+3) 28 New Orleans 29
After coming back from a 21 point deficit last week against the Rams, the Cowboys find themselves at 2-1 on the season, just a game back from Philadelphia. They have played well so far this season behind a change in offensive philosophy that accentuates the strengths of their very good offensive line and talented running back, DeMarco Murray. In fact, the Cowboys are third in the league in rush offense, averaging 157 yards per game at 5.1 ypr. They’ll attempt to run the ball this week against a better than average Saints rush defense that allows 102 yards at 4.1 ypr to teams that gain 118 yards at 4.5 ypr on average. With a strong running game, the Cowboys passing offense may be even more dangerous without having to shoulder the load and QB Tony Romo has played well in a reduced role so far this season since their opening day loss. They may have to open it up a bit in this game as they face a Saints pass defense that has talent, but has been vulnerable at times this season, allowing 278 yards at 7.2 yps, with most of the damage done in Week 1 by the Falcons.
The Saints offense should move the ball well in this game against a Dallas defense that is below average against both the run and the pass, allowing 360 total yards at 6.3 yppl. Just last week they allowed Rams back-up QB Austin Davis to pass for 327 yards at 7.8 yps so I have a hard time believing they will be able to slow down a Saints offense that put up 49 points and gained over 600 yards the last time these two teams met on Sunday night in Week 10 last season. I expect that there will be some points scored in this game as two very good offenses square off but the match-up favors the Saints. The ratings and situation favor Dallas, however, as the Cowboys qualify in a 30-10-2 situation and my numbers only favor New Orleans by about 2 points.
Larry Ness
Tennessee vs. Indianapolis
Pick: Indianapolis
Andrew Luck led the Indianapolis Colts to playoff berths in each of his first two seasons but the Colts lost at Denver in Week 1 (SNF) and then at home on MNF in Week 2 to the Eagles, 30-27. The Colts' 0-2 start marked their first consecutive defeats since Luck was taken with the top pick in the 2012 draft and coach Chuck Pagano joined the team. Luck played a major role in ending that skid this past Sunday by matching a career high with four TD passes, while throwing for 370 yards in a 44-17 victory at Jacksonville. He was 31 of 39 for a career-best 79.5 completion percentage and helped Indianapolis post its high-scoring game since a 44-20 win over Baltimore on Dec 9, 2007. The Colts' 529 yards were their most since they had 567 in a 51-24 victory over Tennessee on Dec 5, 2004.
Speaking of Tennessee, the Colts welcome the Titans to Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 4, looking to even their record at 2-2 on the season against a team they’ve DOMINATED. The Colts have won 10 of the last 11 meetings between the two division rivals and also have won 10 of the last 11 games here in Indy vs Tennessee (including a series-best six in a row). The Titans won 26-10 at Kansas City in Week 1 (Ken Whisenhunt's debut) but have since been outscored 59-17 in back-to-back losses. Luck’s opposite number in this game is Jake Locker. He’s in the final year of his contract and has one of the league's worst passer ratings at 70.8 and one of the lowest completion percentages at 56.4. He went 17 for 34 for 185 yards and had two interceptions last week. He has been picked off four times in the last two games while completing 51.5 percent of his passes.
Whisenhunt said Locker's wrist was so sore during that loss he could barely grip the ball. Locker was limited in Friday's open portion of practice, as he threw a few passes to test out his injured wrist. He didn't practice Wednesday and Thursday, and is listed as questionable. "It was encouraging that we got to see Jake to a little bit, but that's what we anticipated," Whisenhunt said. "Hopefully, it will progress more, and we'll see what we can do tomorrow and that will determine a lot." Locker has missed 14 games in the past two seasons because of injuries and sat out the final seven contests in 2013 after hurting his foot. Titans backup quarterback Charlie Whitehurst has made four career starts with his most recent for Seattle in 2011. Tennessee's other quarterback is sixth-round pick Zach Mettenberger. Good luck!
The Colts are averaging 31.7 PPG (3rd-best in the NFL) on 426.0 YPG (2nd-best). Not sure there is any way the Titans stay close here. All in all, laying about a TD seems ‘cheap!’
Strike Point Sports
Indianapolis -7
We’ve been good. The Tennessee Titans have not been good. The Colts, meanwhile, are looking to beat up on another AFC South team, like they did versus Jacksonville last weekend. The Titans just won’t have the firepower to keep up with the Colts as Indy wins this one going away 34-14. Indy’s wideouts will have a field day versus the Titans secondary just as AJ Green did last weekend. The Bengals marched up and down the field last Sunday versus Tennessee, and it will look eerily similar this Sunday in Indy. Tennessee is just 3-13-2 ATS in their last 18 games versus the AFC South, 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall, and 1-5 ATS in their last six games on field turf. The Colts, meanwhile, are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team with a losing record and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games versus the AFC South.
Jason Sharpe
Oakland +4
The NFL betting markets seem to think that these two teams are about 7 points apart if playing on a neutral field. I’m not buying that at all as the Miami Dolphins come in off two ugly losses here and are a below-average football team. The Dolphins have had the luxury of playing two of their first three games at home to start the season, but despite that fact they’ve been outscored by an average of almost 10 points per game thus far. To win games and cover point spreads in today’s NFL you need to be able to throw the football well, and the Dolphins have shown no signs of that this year as their averaging an awful 4.6 yards per passing attempt. It’s not easy backing 0-3 NFL teams, but keep in mind this Oakland Raiders squad has played two of their first three games on the road this year, and though they are winless straight-up they do have a nice point spread record of 2-1 overall. The Raiders defense has been very solid to start the season having allowed less than 20 points in two of their first three contests. Home underdogs year in and year out are the most profitable bets in the NFL and especially when it involves backing a team that most feel isn’t very good. Take Oakland plus the points here.
Nelly
Tennessee Titans + over Indianapolis Colts
The Colts bounced back in a big way last week with a blowout win in Jacksonville. Tennessee actually out-gained Cincinnati last week despite the ugly 33-7 result as the Titans had a great deal of missed opportunities while having two missed field goals, two interceptions, and a safety allowed. Ultimately Jake Locker has not looked the part as a pretty solid Tennessee running game and defense may be wasted with too many mistakes. The Titans have converted just four of 22 attempts on 3rd down the last two weeks as Tennessee has been unfortunate and this is an offense with much more potential than the current scoring numbers suggest. The Indianapolis defense has continued to struggle however as Jacksonville still posted 344 yards and the Colts were +3 in turnovers last week in the win. Indianapolis is allowing 6.2 yards per play on defense, tied with Dallas for the third worst mark in the NFL. The loser of this game falls to 1-3 but the Titans will be a difficult team to blow out as statistically they hung right with a Bengals team that many consider to be the best in the NFL on the road last week. Indianapolis deserved to beat Philadelphia but they were soundly out-gained in that defeat and The Colts have not been as productive offensively as expected this season. Indianapolis also has a huge game with the Ravens up next given the history of those franchises and Tennessee is undervalued in a second straight road game. Jake Locker being a question mark has created some extra value on this game but veteran Charlie Whitehurst will be capable and the Titans are not reliant on the passing game.
Dave Price
Carolina Panthers +3.5
The Panthers were crushed at home by Pittsburgh last week, but I expect this resilient team to bounce back strong. Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss and 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss of more than 14 points. Carolina was one of the best defensive teams in the NFL last season, ranking only behind Seattle in yards allowed per game (301.3). It only gave up an average of 293.5 yards through its first two games before allowing 454 yards last week. You can bet that performance isn't sitting well with this proud defense. The Panthers have been a phenomenal road team, going 6-1 SU in their last seven. In addition, they are 8-1 ATS the last three seasons as a road underdog and have won these games by an average score of 24.9 to 19.4. The Ravens sneaked past Cleveland last week, but they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a victory and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
Kevin Thomas
Philadelphia vs. San Francisco
Play: Over 49½
Foles will be under pressure all day. The Eagles will still get 50 to 60 plays in. The 49ers are coming out swinging and with the make shift Eagles offensive line they are coming hard. 49ers will score a ton today. Looking close to 38 points with Cabtree and Davis getting tons of yards. Never count the Eagles out, they will score 18-24 points in a losing battle. Take the over 49.5 BIG and the 49ers -4 small.
Nick Parsons
Oakland A's vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Oakland A's -188
It doesn’t seem like anyone wants to get in the playoffs. Detroit, Kansas City and Oakland all lost and each had a chance to gain one playoff spot or another. The A’s can guarantee a playoff berth with a win on Sunday.
The A’s will be sending Sonny Gray to the mound to try and get them into the playoffs. At best, the A's will have to travel to either Kansas City or Detroit for Tuesday's wild-card game.
Gray has won 13 and lost 10 while compiling a 3.21 ERA this season. Gray was a fantastic 12-3 with a 2.65 ERA through his first 21 starts and had won five straight after beating Texas on July 26. He's 1-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 11 outings since that victory. He has pitched at least seven innings in three of his last four outings. He went 3-1 with a 1.82 ERA in his first four starts against Texas this season.
The Rangers hope to end a disappointing season on a high note. Nick Martinez will get the start for Texas. He is 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA over his last five starts. Martinez on the year is five and eleven with a 4.61 ERA. He had gone 0-6 with a 7.28 ERA in his first eight home starts. Martinez is 1-0 with a 2.30 ERA in two starts and one relief appearance against Oakland, which is 8-10 against the AL-worst Rangers this season.
This is Oakland’s last chance to guarantee themselves a playoff spot and I think they will take it. Gray has been pitching well as late with little or no support. I see the A’s bats coming alive today and getting them a victory.
Jim Feist
Detroit Lions at New York Jets
Pick: New York Jets
The Lions play their second game of the season on the road and after losing their initial away game at Carolina, 24-7, they are hoping for better results this weekend. It's difficult to believe, but the Lions are actually better defensively than offensively so far this season. The Lions rank 22nd in overall offense and 2nd in overall defense points per game. In fact, they rank #1 overall in total yards allowed this season (244.4). Meanwhile, the Jets are ranked 1st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed (55/game) while rushing for a 2nd best 157.3 ypg. In fact, both these defenses are ranked #1 and #2 overall in yards allowed this season with a slight edge to New York in offensive yards. With the Lions looking for their first road cover in the last five games and the both clubs being stingy in yards, I look for a tight game here. Detroit is a slight favorite, but you really need to pick the outright winner and I'm going with the Jets against a team that has struggled on the road.
Harry Bondi
NY JETS (+2) over Detroit
As we pointed out this week's Quick Slants Column, the Jets absolutely dominated Chicago on Monday night but came away with a misleading loss, both straight up and against the spread. In fact, Sexy Rexy's team could very easily be 3-0 ATS and SU this year, but instead come in 1-2. With that said, we'll take the points against a Detroit team that's averaged 13 points per game the last two weeks and is a dismal 6-11 ATS the last three years on the road. The Lions are also 0-4 ATS the last three years off a win against a divisional foe.
John Fisher
Eagles at 49ers
Play: 49ers -4
If there is one team that can slow down the Eagles its the 49ers. San Fran has the LBs that can stay with Mccoy and Sproles. There is just too much talent on this 49ers team to go 1-3. Philadelphia has been vulnerable to the pass this year. However, look for 49ers to work between tackles first to establish dominance on the line of scrimmage. The air will open up for Kapernick and his WRs Bolden and Crabtree.
Bob Balfe
Bears/Packers Over 51
Aaron Rodgers told his fans to relax after the slow start, but the fact of the matter is he has not looked sharp. This can be credited to the running game not being that hot and just not as many weapons as in the past. The good news today is Chicago’s Secondary is very thin. Last week they were throwing in guys who were clueless against the Jets late in that game and the only reason why they came out with a win is because the Jets are one of the only teams that will actually beat themselves. This is the measuring stick for Rodgers. If he can’t beat this bad defense and injuries secondary then there is a major problem. Chicago is finally starting to use their size to their advantage. This team can play physical football and Cutler and his offense should have no problem moving the sticks today. Take the Over.
Buffalo Bills +3
Adrian Foster is going to play today, but any player in this league that is not at 100 percent because of a hamstring injury does not scare opponents. Remember the best player in the league is not that much better than the worst. These are all pro players and injuries really slow any player down. Houston looked awful against the Giants on the road last week and I have not been too impressed with the defensive line for this team. Watt is having a better year catching touchdowns then he his sacking the QB. Buffalo is a young team, but they match up in the trenches really well today and they have a ton of team speed. Houston is still getting used to a new system and a new staff. Take the Bills.
Baltimore Ravens -3
The Panthers come into this game without a key running back, a key backup running back and their fullback on IR. The only healthy running back in this game is Williams and he is far from healthy. Good luck having any running success today on the road in Baltimore coming off that embarrassing loss to Pittsburgh. Did I also mention Steve Smith gets a shot today to go against the team that traded him away? I have never been a huge fan of Cam Newton. He is a good player, but coaches have figured out those duel threat QB's and after one great season defensive coordinators usually find a way to slow down these types of super star guys on the ground making them pass more. I don’t see much offense for Carolina. Take the Ravens.
Chargers/Jaguars Under 44.5
The Jaguars literally have no healthy wide receivers and the rest are all suspended. This team has nobody to throw the ball to in Blake Bortles first NFL start. The running back Gerhart is not going to take over a football game. I just don’t see many points here. San Diego has their own issues. They are missing their center today and don’t have many quality backups. This team is down to Donald Brown at running back as Matthews is out and Woodhead is done for the season. If you are not balanced you can’t score much in the NFL. I expect the Chargers to just play it safe and not do anything to lose the game. This should be a boring one. Take the Under.
NY Yankees -120
Today is Derek Jeters last baseball game. This guy has been a class act for two decades and it was fun watching him. The Yankees have the much better pitcher in this spot as Pindea if he can stay healthy can be an all star pitcher. Take New York.
Ben Burns
Oakland A's vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers +180
It almost seems fitting that it's come down to this for slumping A's. If you would have told me on August 1st that they would need to beat the Rangers on the final day of the regular season just to qualify for the postseason, I would have been both confused and unconcerned. Confused in a sense that Oakland had the best record in baseball at that time and seemed like a "sure thing" to be in the playoffs. Unconcerned in that Texas is a terrible team, one that the Athletics should easily defeat.
But that's not the way I feel today. Oakland has lost 30 of its last 45 games and if they lose and Seattle wins today, then it's a one-game playoff tomorrow. They have no one to blame but themselves. Their September record is 7-13.
The Rangers have had the A's number. They are 10-8 against them for the season, including 5-1 this month. They've won two of three this weekend, including a 5-4 victory Saturday night.
Texas is playing its best baseball of the season right now. They are 13-2 in their last 15 for interim manager Tim Bogar. They are also 11-1 their last 12 day games with five straight victories.
Sonny Gray starts this crucial game for Oakland, but he's been inconsistent down the stretch. He's 1-7 with a 4.31 ERA his last 11 starts.
Nick Martinez has made a nice turnaround for the Rangers. Over his last three starts, he has a 1.96 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP. Who would be surprised if Oakland loses this game? Not me.
Jeff Alexander
Seattle Mariners -183
Regardless of what's happening in the Oakland game, I expect Seattle to take care of business here as ace Felix Hernandez goes after the AL ERA title. Hernandez has owned the Angels this season, and the Mariners are 5-0 in his last 5 starts against them going back to last year. In 4 starts against them this year, he's posted a 0.94 ERA and has struck out 40 batters in 23 2-3 innings. Rasmus, a reliever, has made 5 starts this season and hasn't made it more than 4 innings in any of them. That puts a lot of pressure on the L.A. bullpen. The Angels don't have anything left to play for, and it's showed. They're clearly ready for the playoffs to start, as evidenced by their 3-6 record in their last 9 games.