Doug Upstone
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -7
Play On favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Pittsburgh after a game where they committed no turnovers, against opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. How this NFL system has worked is the carry over effect as teams like the Steelers continue to value possession of the ball and they attack foes prone to making miscues. Since 2010, teams like Pittsburgh are 26-6, 81.2 percent, winning by an average margin of 14 PPG.
Will Rogers
Jacksonville vs. San Diego
Pick: San Diego
The Jacksonville Jaguars are going with rookie QB Blake Bortles this week in San Diego, but it's unlikely to help. The Jaguars seemingly haven't improved much, ranking last in the NFL versus the run as well as the pass. San Diego is off to an impressive start to the season, and I like the Chargers to win by more than two TDs this afternoon.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Jags Pass Protection - Chad Henne was sacked a whopping 10 times in the loss to Washington, and poor pass protection could make life difficult for the rookie Borltes today. Henne was again sacked three times in the first quarter at Indy last week, and Bortles came in and threw a pair of picks, taking just one sack.
2. Toby Gerhart - The Jaguars feature back has run for just 82 yards on 34 carries without any TDs this year. He's unlikely to have much success against a very strong San Diego defense this week.
3. X-Factor - The Chargers have won each of the last three meetings with Jacksonville, and all of those games were decided by 14+ points.
Scott Delaney
My free play for Sunday is on the Houston Texans over the Buffalo Bills, and since the Texans are laying -3 points, you might want to buy the half point down here.
Both teams come in 2-1, and look to take a step forward in their respective division standings while rivals have key matchups. I think the Bills might have been exposed last week by San Diego, and now the Texans have an easier path to follow in seeking to avenge a loss to the New York Giants last week.
Neither team has done anything overwhelmingly dominant or impressive this season, thus far, so this is a crucial week for the better team to step up. I believe that to be the Texans, who have the fifth-best rushing offense in the league. These guys are capable of grinding away at Buffalo's defensive line to score the home win here.
Look for Houston to sustain drives and keep the clock running, especially against a disruptive team like Buffalo's. The Texans will run the ball methodically, and will be able to take the time off the clock.
Lay the home chalk.
2♦ HOUSTON
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Green Bay Packers over Chicago.
Jay Cutler and the Bears have looked really good since the second half of the game vs. the Niners, but that can be a bit deceiving... especially when you consider Jay Cutler is a measly 1-7 against the Packers in his last eight tries.
Does it surprise anyone that the Packers are 1-2 (and could easily be 0-3) while the Bears are 2-1 and yet the Packers are the favorite IN Chicago? Well, it surprised me a little, and that's one of the many reasons I'm on the Packers today.
Simply put, Green Bay can't afford a loss here. In a fairly competitive division, if you fall to 1-3 you will be looking up at at least two teams and having to play catch up most of the year. Green Bay will be playing with a lot of urgency here.
True, Aaron Rodgers has looked like junk over his first three games, but he hasn't had a lot of help. The good news is... he's 14-5 ATS following a loss, including a startling 7-1 when he's a favorite of smaller than 7 points.
I just believe the Bears aren't as good as advertised while I believe the Packers are better than they appear. Take Green Bay as your free play of the day.
4♦ GREEN BAY
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Raiders plus the points in London, England.
Simply cannot trust Miami laying any points right now, as the Dolphins are 2-3 since 2011 when listed as the road favorite. Miami has also scored just 25 points their last 2 games after putting up 33 on New England in their Week One win.
With the offense sputtering, it is not wise to lay points in this spot, as Oakland is already 2-for-2 this season when getting points on the road - covering by a hook at the Jets, and nearly winning outright last week at New England.
Think this one could very well go right down to the wire in the shadow of Big Ben.
Take the points.
2♦ OAKLAND
Gabriel Dupont
I will play the Philadelphia Eagles tonight against the San Francisco 49ers, as I like the road dog in this renewal of Pac 12 minds, when coaches Chip Kelly and Jim Harbaugh reunite.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with the Eagles - Philadelphia has the sixth-best offense in the league, led by the NFL's second-best passing game. The quickness this unit moves up and down the field with is dangerous.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against the 49ers - San Francisco struggles to stop the pass, particularly against teams that play out of a no huddle, and tend to play with a frenetic style.
In conclusion, why PHILADELPHIA is my SMART PLAY in this game - The ol' fire alarm trick won't have any effect on the Philadelphia Eagles, as reports out of Frisco have members of the Eagles tweeting that a hotel alarm went off overnight and wouldn't shut off. That won't make a difference, as Niners' fans should be more alarmed with how bad their team has played this season.
The Eagles have won five of past six meetings, with the lone loss coming in 2011 in coach Jim Harbaugh's first season in San Francisco. Harbaugh split two meetings in college, while in charge at Stanford, versus Eagles coach Chip Kelly, who was at Oregon. I don't know if Philly can win outright, and withstand any late offensive surge considering the Eagles' banged up roster, but they'll keep it close.
1♦ PHILADELPHIA
Chris Jordan
My free winner tonight is on the Detroit Lions over the New York Jets. We have a clash of the top two defensive units in the leaguem here, as the Lions are No. 1 in the league overall, and the Jets just behind at No. 2.
But here is the deal, I am much more impressed by how the Lions beat the Packers last week, than the Jets blowing their game against Chicago last Monday. Though I don't think the Bears were impressive in their win, I do see the Jets making silly mistakes, and just don't see how quarterback Geno Smith will withstand pressure from Detroit's front line.
Ndamukong Suh has 28-1/2 career sacks and needs just one more to break Shaun Rogers' team record for sacks by a defensive tackle. I think Suh could get a couple today.
I'm banking on the Lions' defense here, and maybe a couple big plays from Calvin Johnson. Lay the road chalk.
5♦ DETROIT
Brad Wilton
Highly impressed with the Chargers early season results, as they followed up their huge win over the Super Bowl Champion Seahawks with a rock-solid 22-10 road win on the east coast over the Buffalo Bills.
Now Diego comes back home to deal with a Jacksonville team that is turning to Blake Bortles after losing all 3 of their games both straight up and against the spread, getting outscored by 17, 31, and 27 points.
Jacksonville is now 0-5-1 against the spread their last 6 games dating back to last season.
The Bolts meanwhile have covered 6 of their last 9 games at home, and they are 4-1 against the spread their last 5 games as the home favorite.
No choice hear but to lay it.
4♦ SAN DIEGO
Bill Milton
Falcons
Lots of talk about the Falcons lack of pass defense, but consider that they have played Drew Brees and a suddenly very hot Andy Dalton in the two games when they gave up a lot of pass yardage. Last week they faced a less than stellar QB, and the pass defense shined. This week they get Teddy Bridgewater, who is making his first start in the NFL as Matt Cassel was injured last week. We like Bridgewater, and think he is going to be a solid NFL player, but Week Four is earlier than Minnesota wanted to use him. With the Adrian Peterson situation the Vikes have virtually no running game, meaning Bridgewater will have to shoulder the load by himself, and we think Atlanta's defense will be up to that task. Just as, if not more, importantly, we like the matchup of the Falcons offense against the Vikings defense. WR Roddy White is healthy, and so far this season the Falcons have scored 93 points in two home games as opposed to just ten points in their only road tilt. However, that was against a Cincy team that is super solid at home, and now they are taking on a team that is borrowing a home and lost by 23 in its first host tilt. We will lay the small number in this one.
NY Jets
Dating back to last season, the Lions are 0-4 SU in their last four road games, being outscored by a total of 42 points in those games, with three of the losses coming by double digits. They are on a 4-13 ATS run as away chalk. On the other hand, the Jets are off a misleading loss, as they won the yardage battle 414-257 last week but still found a way to lose. We look for "Good Geno" to show up this week, and Gang Green to get the win.
Andy Iskoe
Minnesota +3
An injury to QB Cassel has resulted in rookie QB Bridgewater becoming Minnesota's starting QB earlier than planned but many observers felt at draft time that the former Louisville QB was the most NFL ready of his rookie class. In his first start he gets to face an Atlanta defense that was torched for 300 passing yards by both Cincinnati and New Orleans before facing the rather tame Tampa Bay offense last Thursday. The Vikes do have concerns in replacing RB Peterson but are facing a Falcons defense that allowed 139 and 170 rushing yards in addition to those huge passing numbers to the Saints and Bengals. Atlanta was just 1-7 on the road last season and began this season with a 24-10 loss at Cincinnati, allowing the usually modest Bengals to gain 472 yards of offense.
ASA
Atlanta / Minnesota Over 47
Atlanta's offense has been fantastic this season. The Falcons are 1st in pass YPG, 1st in total YPG, and 1st in points per game. They just notched 488 total yards and 56 points in a blowout win over the Buccaneers last Thursday, so they will be well rested and prepared for this road trip to Minnesota. Vikings QB Cassel broke his foot last week, so rookie Teddy Bridgewater will get his first start. We actually expect the rookie to lead this offense to more explosive plays than the conservative Cassel. Neither defense has been great. The Vikings allowed 30 points to an average New England offense in their only home game so far while Atlanta ranks 27th in yards allowed and 21st in points allowed. This game has the potential for a lot of fireworks and we're leaning towards a play on the OVER.
Vegas Butcher
Tampa Bay Bucaneers +7.5
This one opened at -7.5 PIT and stayed there pretty much the whole week. Remember, this is after the Bucs getting absolutely demolished on TNF by the Falcons and Steelers going on the road and dominating the Panthers on SNF. Both games were seen by the national audience so the public’s perceptions are very clearly defined for this one. Not surprisingly over 70% of all the bets are on the Steelers, a popular public team in their own right. So let’s make a case for the underdog here. Tampa is coming into this one having 10 days to prepare. It’s similar to coming off a BYE-week, where those teams have a slight advantage and tend to perform better than their opponent. In addition, we have a QB change as the Bucs are going with Mike Glennon, someone who played in 13 games for the Bucs last year and is familiar with the offensive personnel. Steelers rank 27th so far in efficiency defending the pass, so Glennon should have success here. Finally, consider the fact that Tampa will be much healthier, starting a number of players that missed that TNF debacle last week: Doug Martin, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Gerlad McCoy (stud DT), Michael Johnson (played 7 snaps last week), and of course Glennon, who simply CANNOT do much worse than McCown. Of course let’s remember that Pittsburgh lost 3 starters on defense: Jarvis Jones, Ryan Shazier, and Ike Taylor. Interestingly, prior to the season Pittsburgh was listed as a -3.5 point home favorite in this matchup. I believe there’s definitely some line-value on the road team in this one and I’d be surprised if the Bucs don’t show up today after such a pathetic display last week. Expect a close game.
Green Bay Packers -1.5
There’s one distinct difference between the Bears and the previous three opponents that the Packers have faced so far this season: run defense. Detroit ranks 2nd, Seattle is 5th, and the Jets are 6th against the run. Bears come into the game ranking 16th but will be even in a worse shape for this one as they’re dealing with a number of injuries on the defensive side (Ratliff out, McClellin out, Conte is very questionable, Mundy is banged up but should play). If Green Bay’s run-game is ever going to get going, this week will be it. The Jets’ 28th ranked offense averaged 6.5 YPP (Yards Per Play) as the average is about 5.4 in the league. New York got into the red-zone 6 times, scoring only 1 TD while also turning the ball over 3 times to Chicago’s 1. A more efficient offense would have capitalized on more of those opportunities and I believe that offense is coming into town today. Defensively, you have to be encouraged by what the Packers did last week. They held the Lions to only 4.8 YPP and 10 points at their own house. The defense forced 3 TO’s and played extremely well. Chicago is 4-12 ATS at home in the last 16 games, they’re 2-10 ATS against the division, and most importantly they’re 6-17 ATS at home against Green Bay, which could be a psychological thing at this point. Green Bay is coming off a divisional loss and they know this is a big game for them. Chicago played in prime-time @ San Fran in week 2 and then @ NYJ on Monday, winning both close games. On a short week and after a lot of travel the past few weeks, I think we might see a let-down from the Bears. I think Packers are in a very good spot to grab an important divisional game today.
New Orleans Saints -3
Last week this Dallas defense allowed 6.2 YPP, 448 yards, and 31 points to a Rams offense led by Austin Davis. Today, they’ll be without Henry Melton in the middle of their D-line and have a number of other defensive players playing at a below 100%. If Drew Brees doesn’t light this defense up I’ll be very surprised. Last year these teams met with NO winning 49 to 17, destroying the defense led by Sean Lee. Today, it should be even easier to move the ball for the Saints. I know this team is 0-2 SU/ATS on the road, but they won’t go 0-8 away from Superdome this season. Saints D has allowed 3.9 RY/A this season and their focus will be stopping Dallas’ run-game. With Romo being more of a game-manager this year, I believe that is the right strategy in this matchup. Limit the run-game and force Romo to make plays. I’m willing to bet that he’ll have a tough time keeping up with Drew Brees and the Saints offense in this one. Saints are a better team and I’m not very impressed with Dallas’ wins against TEN and STL, both bottom-10 teams.
Jacksonville Jaguars +12.5
Sometimes all you need is a strong-armed young QB to make a big difference on a team and that’s what I expect to see today. Brotles will bring a different dimension to this Jags offense and not just by his ability to throw the ball. He’s a very good athlete and I see him moving the ball via the run as well here. Chargers are a very good team of course, but their style prevents them from blowing out opponents. They like to play ball-control, possession type of a game which bodes well for a DD-spread. With Brotles behind center for the Jags I like Jacksonville’s chances of staying close and covering the spread here. Prior to the season the line on this game was -10 SD, and I believe we have some value in this one.
Wunderdog
Kansas City @ Chicago
Pick: Chicago +180
Kansas City has plenty to play for, but this team has weaknesses and is overvalued here. They are in the middle of the pack in runs scored and rank 22nd in slugging. They missed an opportunity to tie Detroit for the division lead Saturday, falling 5-4 to the White Sox after the Tigers were routed 12-3 by Minnesota. The Royals are 0-4 in their last four games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Chicago has no problems on offense, 12th in runs and ninth in slugging. Chicago got the win yesterday jumping out to a 4-0 lead in the second as Jose Abreu, a strong candidate to be named AL Rookie of the Year, hit a two-run shot for his 36th homer. Starter Chris Bassitt (1-1, 3.65) earned his first big-league victory by pitching 7 2/3 scoreless innings of a 2-0 win over Detroit on Monday, so jump on the very live home dog. Play the Chicago White Sox.