Bill Biles
Washington Redskins vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Washington Redskins -3
Rg3 has been getting better with his legs every week. I believe the Redskins are a better team than the 0-3 record indicates, and I believe their season is on the line this week. They cannot afford to go 0-4. Look for the Redskins to dig deep and put out a much needed win on the west coast.
Hollywood Sports
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: New York Giants
Take the New York Giants plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs. It may be tempting to take the undefeated Kansas City team (3-0) in this spot against the winless New York Giants (0-3) but that avenue is likely to be Fool's Gold in this situation. The Giants have been saddled by a -9 turnover margin while the Chiefs have yet to turn the ball over while amassing a strong +9 turnover margin. But both these numbers are outliers -- and any regression back to the mean in this game will likely see a game decided by a field goal. New York gave up in the second half of their ugly 38-0 loss in Carolina last Sunday -- but this team always seems to pick themselves off the mat the week after they really should have in the Tom Coughlin regime. I have seen it too often to bet against it now -- and the Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Kansas City may suffer a letdown after their emotional 26-16 win in Philadelphia in head coach Andy Reid's return to his former stomping grounds. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 10 home games, KC has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games. Take the Giants plus the points in this one.
Marc Lawrence
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
Who would have ever believed it? The Chiefs: 3-0 under Alex Smith and the Giants: 0-3 under Eli Manning. The bottom line here, folks, is one team is playing and the other is not. And according to our mighty machine, we can expect more of the same today. That?s because 3-0 non-division home favorites of 7 or less points are 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS in Game Fours of the season. Not to mention, 3-0 teams hosting 0-3 teams are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS since 1981. Granted, the G-Men are 7-0 ATS in their last seven clashes with KC but in none of those games was their defense as bad as it is today (383 YPG). Then again, Andy Reid is 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in his last ten meetings against the Giants, and also 6-1 SUATS off a win in games in which New York is off a loss. No surprise here today when another superior AFC squad squashes an NFC foe. We recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City.
Jesse Schule
Redskins at Raiders
Pick: Over
This is a Free NFL play on the Redskins @ Raiders to go Over the total. The Redskins had no trouble moving the ball on offense last week, but after a costly fumble from RGIII and a touchdown taken off the board by the replay officials, Washington lost 27-20, and the total fell just short of the number. The Raiders also showed some scoring prowess in a losing effort, but the Broncos blew the doors off in a 37-21 Monday night blowout. Whether it's Terrelle Pryor or Matt Flynn running the offense this week, the Raiders match up against a Redskins defense that is terrible against the pass as well as the run. Washington has allowed an average of 330 yards in the air, and 155 rushing yards per game, one of the reasons for it's 0-3 start. The Raiders allowed Denver to rack up over 500 yards of total offense in their loss on Monday, and coming off a short week, I'd expect them to struggle again this week. RGIII is likely to throw caution to the wind, as there's no sense playing safe to avoid injury if the losses continue to pile up. Don't be surprised to see him take off and run a little more this week, and he could have a monster game.
Fezzik
NY Jets +3.5
I just adjusted my power rating way up on the Jets. The pure numbers say this team is actually a contender, gaining over 5 yards per play, giving up a league leading 4.3. The math guys will ALL bet the Jets.........grab the 3.5, it's sure to disappear!
Bryan Leonard
Oakland +3.5
How bad have the Washington Redskins been this season? Not only are they 0-3 on the year but when you back out the wins over Washington their opponents are posting a minuscule .167 winning percentage. Washington has been out gained in every contest and have come up short to the spread by 27.5 points in just three games this season. Opponents are throwing all over this Redskin defense to the tune of 333 yards per contest and an opposing quarterback rating of 107.6.
Oakland is playing on a short week having faced the Broncos monday night, but they have been a pleasant surprise to backers this season. The Raiders are averaging 6.1 yards per play on offense which is well above league average. The running game is averaging a whopping 5.3 yards per carry. Oakland should find quality success against this very giving Washington defense.
Mike Shanahan has always fared well against the Raiders but this is a long way from home for the Skins. At 0-3 many will feel that it's a must win game for Washington, but teams in that situation are there for a reason. The Skins right now are not a good football team and they don't deserve to be a favorite on the road in this price range.
Brady Kannon
Cleveland +4
I had a really good feeling about my Browns play last week late when the number kept skyrocketing and the whole world thought that there was no possible way The Clevelanders had anything in the tank following the Richardson trade. One player of this stature does not make for a 3-or-4 point line swing. On the other side of the card, The Bengals were out gained by The Packers by 100-yards but still got the win. The Bengals are indeed a solid team but they're probably a bit full of themselves after beating rival Pittsburgh and Green Bay. Now they go on the road for an instate rival affair with The Browns, who are showing real life after the trade, sparked by the play of quarterback, Brian Hoyer. I have always thought The Browns were a team that was often overlooked and has sported a solid defense the last few years, that continues to get better. In addition, they run the ball markedly better than The Bengals do in terms of net yards per play. I like the way this team is trying to build itself, the coaching staff is sending a message, and I think they give Cincinnati a stern test this week in the Dawg Pound. Go Browns!
King Creole
Arizona +2.5
Tampa picked a heck of a time to make a major switch at the QUARTERBACK position. NC State rookie Mike Glennon gets the call as the Bucs host the Cardinals. So now we get the DOG... with a much more experienced QB.... and 50 yard-per-game better offense. Part of us wouldn't mind this game drifting up to +3 or +3.5 points. But then we remember the lessons that our database has taught us about the curious pointspread of +2.5 points... which is the current line as of Friday evening.
If the game CLOSES at the line of +2.5, here's what we know:
Oddsmakers want you to play the FAVORITE when the line is less than 3 points. On average, the home field advantage in the NFL is right at 3 points. So if a home team is favored by LESS than 3 points (-1, -1.5, -2, or -2.5), the perception is that the road team is actually the BETTER team. And that's the case in this game. As of late, it's the underdogs of LESS than 3 points that cover (or WIN) much more often than the underdog of +3 points exact.
Here's what the database has revealed in these games:
Non-Division road UNDERDOGS of LESS than ( 1 point (Bucs). These teams have gone a perfect 0-5 ATS since the 2007 season.
Arizona lost on the road BIG Last week to Dallas (34-7).
6-0 ATS last 3 years: All GAME FOUR road underdogs playing off a SU Loss of > 10 points (CARDS and GIANTS).
This is the second of back-to-back road games for Arizona.
20-2 ATS since 1990: All non-division underdogs of pts (Bucs) versus a pts (CARDS).
Tampa Bay has been a really BAD short favorite in NFC conference games. The BUCS gave gone 0-6-1 ATS in the last 3 years as non-division conference favorites of LESS than (<) 6 points.
Joe Gavazzi
Pittsburgh -2.5
Last week the 10 Pittsburgh players from the 2008 Championship season sought to solve the issues behind the then 0-2 SU start. Their solution? Ban all the other players from the recreation area; seems a strange way to create team unity. Results? Bears 40, Steelers 23. Despite outgaining Chicago, 459-258, Pittsburgh imploded with 5 more turnovers. That makes 9 for the season, with no takeaways. Ergo, the 0-3 SU ATS mark. This week, on Ben's radio show on "The Fan" he dissed RB Bell, saying he wasn't sure the guy was going full tilt in practice. Ben compared it to the actions of veteran Heath Miller, who was apparently busting his tail to get back from his injury. When Ben was questioned about it, he attempted to disguise it as a compliment for Miller. Too late. Now a fractured Steeler team gets as close to a "gimme" as an 0-3 SU ATS team could get. The winless Vikings have an injured signal caller in QB Ponder (ribs) and RB Peterson, who could have tough going on what is normally the slippery surface in London. One of these teams drops to 0-4, but it really doesn't matter since only 3 teams since 1990 have made the playoffs after beginning the season with a negative hat trick. Check the lead article to see how important the return of RB Bell is to the fortunes of a team only running on 17% of their plays for only 17% of their yards.
Terron Chapman
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Baltimore Ravens -3
Last week’s 27-20 loss to the New York Jets was a game to forget for rookie quarterback EJ Manuel. His 45 percent completion percentage was the second lowest in the NFL last week behind only Michael Vick. The Jets pressured the rookie early and often, sacking him eight times and hitting him 16 times. Things don’t figure to be any easier this week with the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens set to pay a visit to Orchard Park.
The Ravens defense may not be what it has been in past years, but since allowing seven touchdowns in the season opener in Denver, the Ravens haven’t allowed a touchdown since. That’s a span of 25 straight drives, a span of 124 minutes, 30 seconds. The Ravens and Jets run similar types of defenses. Manuel was just 1-for -10 when the Jets rushed five or more last weekend and 1-for-8 when the Jets rushed a defensive back. Look for the Ravens to dress up their blitz packages forcing the rookie signal-caller to make early decisions, something he had trouble with last week.
A return to Ralph Wilson Stadium should help the host Bills in what will be a tough physical matchup. Buffalo has played better at home, upsetting the Carolina Panthers and leading the Patriots in the fourth quarter. The Ravens one weakness on defense is their pass defense but as mentioned, Manuel struggled with pressure last week and we expect more of the same this week. The Bills only chance heading into this one is a Ravens letdown. But after an embarrassing party bus incident earlier in the week in which their leadership – or “perceived” lack thereof – was questioned, expect head coach John Harbaugh to have his troops focused. The Bills will present a challenge at home, but in the end, the Ravens should make enough plays on both sides of the ball to pull away in the second half. Lay the road chalk at your sportsbook.
Freddy Wills
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Detroit Lions -3
This is a great division rivalry which has been owned by the Bears who have taken 8 of the last 10 including both games last year. Below I'll break down a bit of my feeling on this game in a non-traditional sense so you can understand how I came up with my NFL against the spread play. Takeaways Are Lucky? Well not 100%, but there is some luck to taking the ball away. Either you are just in the right spot at the right time or the offense just is not capable of taking care of the ball or your defense is just that good. I view the Bears as a combination of the offenses they have faced and being at the right spot at the right time with about 20% of their takeaways being "they are just that good!" The takeaways have hidden so many other issues that the Bears have for instance they are ranked 29th on defense in yards per play and 25th in third down conversion percentage. When they are not forcing more than 2 turnovers in a game they are 5-14 in the last two seasons and 18-0 when they do. Lucky Lions? I would call the Lions anything but lucky. However they are taking care of the ball right now. The Lions are 6th in takeaways themselves and rank 6th in turnover margin. Steelers were able to show some obvious weaknesses in Chicago's defense as Big Ben put up 406 yards which is amazing since the Steelers could not move the ball in previous games. The Lions have an elite offense one that returns Reggie Bush and despite losing Nate Burrelson will be okay with the other receiving weapons they have. Detroit Lions -3 +100 2* FREE PLAY Most books have this with no juice right now and we will take it. The bears are 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 350+ yards and facing the Lions who want revenge from losing twice last year is going to be no easy task. When you look at the Bears this season they could have easily gone 0-3 in their first three games and I very much think they are over rated. I think this line should be -4.5 because on neutral field I'd still play the Lions.
Will Rogers
Cincinnati vs. Cleveland
Pick: Under
Though it didn't work out last week, it did the first two weeks, and once again I'll make my free play the Under on the Cleveland Browns. Last week was a downright shocking result as they went into Minnesota with a 3rd string QB, after trading Trent Richardson, and beat the Vikings 31-27. This week's opponent is much tougher defensively.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Stepping Up & Stepping Down - My first takeaway from the Browns win last week was "how bad is the Vikings secondary?" The correct answer to that question would be somewhere between "very bad" and "atrocious." This week, Brian Hoyer and the Cleveland offense will be going up against a far more formidable Cincinnati defense. While the Bengals gave up 30 points last week, that was against Green Bay, and their offense didn't help them out with four turnovers. I expect a defensive effort here similar to the one they gave against Pittsburgh two weeks ago.
2. Browns Offense - Ok, so they put up 31 points last week. That was more than the previous two games combined. While Hoyer can't be any worse than Brandon Weeden, he defnitely benefited from having WR Josh Gordon back last week, a luxury Weeden never had. However, regardless of who has been in at QB for the Browns, the bottom line is they have scored only 10 second half points total in the three games so far. They are 23-11 Under last 34 games overall.
3. X-Factor - Cincinnati is 7-0 Under when coming off consecutive victories the last two seasons.
Football JESUS
Text : take the Texans + points
14-4 run
3-0 on NFL podcast free picks
Ben Burns
Philadelphia vs. Denver
Pick: Philadelphia
The Broncos will be trying for their 15th consecutive regular-season victory. That would tie their franchise record.
A shootout is expected. (The O/U line is roughly 10 points higher than the second biggest O/U line on the entire board.)
Manning is obviously playing at a very high level right now and he has the entire Denver offense doing so. The Broncos are putting up sick numbers, averaging 486.7 yards and 42.3 points per game.
As no team has been able to stop the Broncos yet, we can't really expect the Eagles to do so.
The Eagles may well be able to keep up with Denver though. The Broncos have given up more than 20 points against every team they've faced thus far. Opposing teams are averaging more than 370 yards per game against them.
Meanwhile, the Eagles are averaging 461.7 yards per game. They've got the top rushing offense in the league. They should be able to move the ball and score.
Although they didn't have to travel, I believe that its important to remember that the Broncos are coming off a Monday Night game and that the Eagles have had an extended break, due to playing last Thursday. When facing Denver, any extra preparation time figures to be helpful. (The Broncos are 1-2 ATS off a Monday night game the past couple of seasons and the lone cover came when they had a bye following the Monday game.)
The Eagles badly want to avoid falling to 1-3. They've got a coach and QB who are both confident and both would love nothing more than to prove they can beat the great Peyton Manning. I look for the Eagles to be a lot more competitive than many are expecting and feel that the line is generous. Consider Philadelphia
Bruce Marshall
Cincinnati vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland
Maybe new HC Rob Chudzinski & offensive coordinator Norv Turner were able to convince ex-Michigan State and new Cleveland QB Brian Hoyer that he was actually playing Illinois or Indiana, judging by Hoyer’s 321 YP & 3 TD passes in his victory at Minnesota. Even considering his three picks last week at the Metrodome, the fearless Hoyer appears a lot more likely than Brandon Weeden (no guarantee to regain the starting role when his thumb heals) to find holes in the somewhat-leaky Cincy secondary. Note that the Bengals have failed to cover their last three vs. lesser Browns teams in this intense “Paul Brown” state rivalry.