Teddy Covers
N.Y. Giants vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
The Giants aren’t winless by accident. Their biggest issue is on the offensive line; a unit that has been badly outplayed in every game this season. The inability to block has resulted in all kinds of problems.
New York has an NFL worst 2.7 yards per carry average from their running backs. Eli Manning has been sacked eleven times. And the G-men have an NFL worst -9 turnover margin – lots of mistakes when guys are consistently getting hit in the backfield.
Things have gone from bad to worse on that offensive line this past week. Center David Baas is hurt. Guard Chris Snee is hurt. Tackle David Diehl is hurt, the only one of the three starters with any chance to play although he’s listed as ‘doubtful’. That leaves center and the right side of the line with a combined five career starts, three of them from rookie right tackle Justin Pugh.
The Chiefs defense is their strength, and they’re not 3-0 by accident any more than the Giants are 0-3 by accident. We saw them blow up a solid Eagles OL last week, forcing six turnovers in the process. Facing a mistake prone QB with a porous offensive line is a dream scenario for this stop unit; a unit that is capable of covering this short spread all by themselves.
Last year, with the playoffs on the line in Week 15, the Giants lost 34-0 at Atlanta, a very similar loss to the one they suffered at Carolina last week. The G-men had a chance to rally back into playoff contention the following week at Baltimore. But the second of back-2-back road games wasn’t much better than the first, as the Giants lost 33-14 and were eliminated.
The late season losses last year exposed a leadership void in the Giants locker room. They laid down and quit early when trailing last week. And the G-men are now 3-8 SU and ATS since their 6-2 start to the season last year, including an 0-6 mark on the road. Four of those six losses have come by 18 points or more; non-competitive efforts. I’m not expecting any sort of dramatic turnaround against a superior foe this week. Take Kansas City.
Steve Merril
Cincinnati vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland
The Bengals are going to have a hard time moving the ball, especially since they are off an emotional game last week. We’ll back the Browns once again this week, especially since they are catching points against a team off back-to-back high profile wins. Take the points with Cleveland on Sunday afternoon.
Cincinnati comes into this game with a fortunate 2-1 record after last week’s lucky win over the Packers. Green Bay went for a game-sealing fourth down but they fumbled and Cincinnati returned it 58 yards for the winning touchdown. Cincinnati was out-yarded 399-297 by the Packers, including a 182-82 rushing yardage disadvantage. Green Bay also had a 27-19 first down edge. The Bengals are not in a good scheduling spot for this game even though they should be ready for an in-state divisional opponent. Prior to last week’s win over Green Bay, the Bengals hosted divisional foe Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football. The Bengals just beat two name teams and now they must take to the road and face the lowly Browns.
Cleveland won SU last week in Minnesota as 7-point road underdogs for us, and we’ll back the Browns once again this week. Home underdogs coming off a SU road underdog win the previous week is a strong momentum angle. The team has a ton of confidence off their win, and they feel disrespected since they are catching points on their home field. It’s a simple angle and it makes a lot of sense. Cleveland’s defense is holding opponents to just 300 yards of total offense per game which is 6th best in the NFL. The Browns are #2 in the league in holding their opponents to just 4.2 yards per play. Cleveland ranks #6 in allowing only 5.7 yards per pass attempt. The Bengals are going to have a hard time moving the ball, especially since they are off an emotional game last week. We’ll back the Browns once again this week, especially since they are catching points against a team off back-to-back high profile wins. Take the points with Cleveland on Sunday afternoon.
Scott Spreitzer
Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Washington Redskins
Robert Griffin III has been a shell of his former self thus far, but he is getting healthier and I believe it's only a matter of time before we get a reminder of the 2012 pre-injury version. But I'll take a less than complete RG-3 over Terrelle Pryor, who is listed as probable after suffering a concussion on Monday night. Let's also not forget that Washington opened with an extremely rusty QB at the helm and facing an offense they had not seen before in the NFL (Eagles). Their other losses came to the Packers & Lions, two teams who figure to be in the playoff race all season. The contest against Oakland is a step down in level of competition. The Skins, ranked 5th in the league in passing & total offense, should get "just what the doctor ordered" against a Raider defense that's certainly not horrible, but no better than mediocre. Oakland is allowing 244 yards passing per game, an important note when you consider the Skins are on a 6-0 ATS run against teams that allow at least 235 yards passing per game, while the Raiders have covered just 7 of their last 27 at home off a road loss to a division opponent. I expect more of the same. I'm recommending a play on the Redskins minus the points.
John Ryan
Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans
Prediction: Houston Texans
The simulator shows a high probability that Houston will win this game. Seattle is off to an impressive 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS start and have by far the best defense in the NFL. Houston is off to a 2-1 start, but has yet to cover a number. They are off a humiliating road loss at Baltimore. So, with a skinny line favoring the Seahawks and the public all over the Seahawks makes for a interesting contrarian play on the Texans. Seattle is off a big and expected blowout win of Jacksonville. In the NFL, parity truly keeps all teams bunched up in the standings and Seattle is not an exception. They are just 3-18 ATS (-16.8 Units) off a home blowout win by 21 points or more since 1992. Houston prepares very well for games that are expected to be tight and where big plays and turnovers decide the outcome. They are a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-13 mark for 74% winners since 1983. Play against road favorites (SEATTLE) that are excellent offensive team scoring 27 or more points/game and after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half. You can all it a letdown, a West Coast team having to play at 1:00 against a very focused foe, or even just a bad game for the visitor, but I strongly believe that Houston will dominate this game.
Kyle Hunter
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -10½
The Philadelphia Eagles offense has had trouble getting out of its own way over the past couple weeks. The Eagles can still pile up the yardage, but turnovers are quickly becoming a problem again. Mike Vick was a turnover machine against KC last Thursday night. Peyton Manning has yet to throw an interception this year, and the Eagles defense has no answer for him. I recommend a small play on the Broncos here.
Jimmy Boyd
Arizona Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2
The fact that Tampa Bay is favored when they will have a new starting quarterback this week says a lot about the talent level of this Buccaneers team. This Buc's defense is solid, holding the Patriots and Saints to an average of just 19.5 points per game. They can defend well against both the run and pass. Tampa Bay held the Saints running back-by-committee approach to just 75 yards, and held Tom Brady and the Patriots to just 202 passing yards.
Having Mike Glennon get the start may provide just the spark this Bucs team needs to get the offense rolling. The talent is there with Vincent Jackson at receiver and Doug Martin at running back. It should be an easy first game for Glennon when he faces an Arizona defense that has given up 29 points per game on the road this season. The Cardinal's secondary has been horrible in those games, allowing 309 passing yards and a 66.7% completion rate from opposing quarterbacks.
Justin Bay
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
Tyson Ross has had some pretty good numbers this year but has gotten no run support and today's game will be no different. Moscoso will be throwing for the Giants and has pretty good stats at home this season. He should be able to hold the Padres in this matchup and allow the Giants to get a win.
Rob Vinciletti
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills +3
Buffalo is home to take on the defending Champion Baltimore Ravens today. We note that Super Bowl champions are in one of their worst roles the following season when they are non divisional road favorites vs teams that are under .500. These road favorites are failing to cover over 90% of the time long term. Baltimore is off a big home dog win over Houston as our System Club Play last week. This is a potential flat spot for them here today as they are 2-9 to the spread as road favorites of less than 7 off back to back wins and 1-6 ats as Road favorites of more that 3 in the first 4 games of the season. The Bills played hard last week and nearly caught the Jets late in their 27-20 loss. E.J. Manuel has been better than expected and it would be no surprise for Buffalo to emerge with the win.
Jim Feist
Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders
Pick: Oakland Raiders
These two teams are a combined 1-5 this season with the Redskins still looking for that first win of the season. Makes me wonder how you can favor a winless team on the road??? The Redskins do have some explosive players on offense led by QB Robert Griffin III. This game will be more of a running game with both sides possessing skilled running attacks. Against the Broncos, the Raiders were down do quickly they couldn't establish their running attack. The Raiders are second in the league in rushing, with a 148.7 ypg average. Meanwhile the Redskins have been behind so much they have had to rely on Griffin's passing, which now ranks 5th in the league (307.3 ypg). The Redskins will have to find a way to stop people if they want to win. The Redskins allow a league-high 488 yards per game this season and have allowed 98 points in three games. Until Washington wins a game, I can't see passing on points at home against a winless team.
Andy Iskoe
Jacksonville +9
It's as tough to go 0-16 as it is to go 16-0 and as ugly as a team may look early in the season there is more room to show improvement than there is for better teams. Thus the Jags can be expected to show modest improvement over the next month or so. And bad teams generally present the best line value, especially in the NFL where the talent gap between the best and worst teams is not nearly as great as is generally thought. This is a bad scheduling spot for the Colts who host powerful Seattle next week after having pulled a major upset at San Francisco last week, a win that was not fluky in any sense. It's a natural letdown spot against the league's weakest team. It's also a good spot for the Jags who are off of a pair of road games and have two more road games on deck. Through good times and bad these teams have a long history of competitive games.
Andre Gomes
Bengals / Browns Under 42.5
Cleveland used a kamizake style against Minnesota last week, with a fake punt and a fake FG as well, but it worked and they won the game at the end. However, Brian Hoyer didn't impress me with 3 interceptions and now that the surprise effect is gone, I expect Cleveland to struggle against Cincinnati's great defense. The Bengals limited Aaron Rodgers to just 244 passing yards last week and sacked him four times. Cincinnati was so focused on Green Bay's passing game that they allowed the Packers to have a rare great running performance, however that's unlikely to happen this week, as Cleveland's depth at the RB position isn't good at all, especially now that Trent Richardson is at Indianapolis.
On the other hand, I also expect Cincinnati's offense to struggle in here. Their passing game is totally based into passing the ball to WR A.J. Green, but Cleveland has in CB Joe Haden a great opponent to stop Green from having a big game today. Cleveland has an overall good defensive unit, with a nice pass rush, decent run defense and good secondary, so I believe they will limit Cincinnati's one-dimensional offense today as well. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.
AC Dinero
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills +3.5
The Ravens go on the road as favorites off the big win over Houston last week in a game they had to have. I can see a bit of a let down here against a Buffalo team that has actually played some decent football this season in what I see as a transition yeat for the Bills. The Baltimore offense is still struggling without most of their 3rd down production in TE Dennis Pita and WR Anquan Boldin, who is now in SF. Making matters worse, RB Ray Rice will be out as well. Baltimore can't count on the defense scoring a couple of TD's each week. I didn't like this team in my preseason preview, and I certainly don't like them as a road favorite. The Bill running game has struggled in the early go this season, but it won't stay down for long. Take the home dog in this one.
Ross Benjamin
Seattle @ Houston
Play: Houston +3
Texans Cast into Rare Role
The Houston Texans are cast into a role as an underdog for the first time this season on Sunday. The Texans have failed to cover any of their first 3 games of 2013 season despite getting off to a 2-1 start. They suffered their first loss of the season last week in humiliating fashion as a 1.0-point favorite 31-9 at Baltimore.
The Texans have yet to play up to their capability in any of those first 3 games. This looks to be a spot where they will come up with their best performance, playing at home, versus an opponent widely regarded as the best team in the NFC, and along with Denver the best in all of football. Houston is very rarely a home underdog in recent years. However, when they are watch out! The Texans are a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 as a home underdog following a loss.
Seahawks Fly Inconsistently on the Road
Seattle couldn't get off to a much better start to the season. The Seahawks are a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in their first 3-games while winning by an average of 19.7 points per game. They have been dominant in all phases of their game especially on defense where they've allowed an average of just 9.0 points per contest. The one flaw that the Seahawks have had under Pete Carroll is the huge disparity between their play at home compared to on the road. Seattle is just 8-16 on the road since Carroll took over at the beginning of the 2010 season. In addition they are a dismal 1-7 SU&ATS in the last 8 on the road following a win by 6-points or more.
My Angle
Since the start of the 1981 season this exact situation has favored the home team (Houston) in a large way. Any home favorite or underdog of 3.5 or less, that allowed 21-points or more in their previous game, versus an opponent (Seattle) that's 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 games with all 3 of those coming as a favorite, and they scored 28 points or more in their latest win is 11-0-1 ATS. The home team has won 11 of those 12 games outright.
Final Analysis
Keeping in mind this is still only September and I'm not being asked which of these two teams has the best chance of getting to the Super Bowl at this juncture. The real question then becomes which of these two teams in this one game isolated situation has the best chance of covering the spread. My answer is the home underdog Houston Texans. I wouldn't be shocked to see an outright upset here but I will take the small number as an additional bonus.
Harry Bondi
Baltimore / Buffalo Under 44
Baltimore is averaging 23.7 points per game, but that is a bit misleading since they rank 31st in the league in yards per play, with only Jacksonville averaging less. But thanks to last week's 30-point outburst against Houston this total is inflated. Meanwhile the Ravens defense is flying under the radar and playing very well. Since getting lit up by Peyton Manning and the Broncos in Week 1, Baltimore has held its last two opponents to a total of 15 points and nobody has rushed for more than 100 yards against them in the first three weeks. The quicker and younger Ravens defense will limit Buffalo's rookie QB. Four out of the last five meetings between these two teams has gone under and we'll follow that trend today.
Bryan Power
Philadelphia vs. Denver
Pick: Philadelphia
It's risky to go against the Broncos, but getting this many points with an Eagles team that can put plenty of points on the board seems like a good idea. Philly arrives in Denver in a fairly desperate state, at 1-2 and off back to back losses. Chip Kelly's detractors have begun to pile on, but the fact is his offense put up 30 points in only 20 minutes time of possession against San Diego. Against the Chiefs, Mike Vick couldn't stop turning the ball over. In fact, the biggest culprit in that 26-16 home loss was a negative five mark in the turnover department.
Denver is working on a short week here and laying double digits, a bad combination. The Broncos are 2-12 ATS after scoring 30+ points three straight games. Most people think Kelly's offense is predicated on passing, but that's simply not the case as no team in the league is better at running the ball. They are at 627 yards rushing through three games, the only team with more than 500, and their 6.6 yards per carry average is 1.3 more than the second best team! The Denver defense allowed Terrelle Pryor and Oakland to move the ball last week.