Sam Martin
Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans
Prediction: Houston Texans
Texans have been a pretty big disappointment at the betting window this season, which doesn't exactly match up with their season statistics (at least on the offensive side of the ball). Over the course of a season, stats and wins/losses tend to be pretty equal, and we look for their big yardage numbers to translate into a win here one week after a horrible game against Baltimore. Texans looked lost on offense in their loss against the Ravens, scoring just nine points and losing by three touchdowns. Seattle is coming off the closest thing to a bye week, covering a huge 19.5-point number against Jacksonville at home last week, and they have been one of the best home teams in the league over the past few seasons. but this Seahawks club is a completely different team on the road, and we only have to go back a few weeks to their 12-7 win at Carolina in Week One as proof. Seattle's defense is for real, but Houston has enough balance and weapons on the ground and through the air to score SOME points, while we don't trust the Seahawks offense on the road. This line is a major overreaction to last weeks' results, and we'll grab the line value with the home town Texans today.
Nick Parsons
New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: New England Patriots +3
Tom Brady and Patriot-Nation will have to wait at least one more week for star TE Rob Gronkowski to return.
Atlanta is dealing with a few injuries as well and its "high-flying" offense has yet to find its groove.
So where's the value?
Which team is playing better defensively? Which QB is playing better?
The answer for both questions in my opinion is New England.
The Patriots
New England is averaging just 19.7 PPG, a far cry from its 34.8 from 2012.
The Pats are also uncharacteristically last in the league in red-zone performance.
Brady has completed only 57.5% of his passes and has had little cohesiveness with his young, patchwork receiving corps.
That said, Brady continues to find a way to get the job done at the end of the day.
There is definitely a silver lining though for New England, as its defense has allowed an average of just 11.3 points over the first three games. So far the Pats have allowed an average of just 188.3 yards per game through the air; they're also second in the AFC in takeaways.
The Falcons
Atlanta's offensive production is down from last season as well, averaging 23.7 PPG.
Bad news for Falcons' backers today is the expected absence of WR Julio Jones. Jones leads the league with 373 receiving yards but is suffering from a knee injury; if he does play, he's going to be far from 100%.
Also note that fellow receiver Roddy White is also dealing with a nagging ankle injury and he'll be a game time decision as well.
And even more bad news for the home side fans as RB Steven Jackson will miss a second straight game with a hamstring injury.
A major weakness so far for the team has been it's defense, having already given up a poor 74 total points over the first three games.
The Bottom Line
This is actually a spot that the Patriots have rarely played in, but when they have, they've produced complete perfection for bettors, going 2-0 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.
Home field has not been a huge advantage for Falcons bettors as the team is just 9-8 ATS over the last two years in Atlanta; most significantly though, the Dirty Birds are a poor 2-7 ATS in the same span vs. teams with winning records.
Better defense. Better starting QB.
These are two big factors that are clearly working in favor of the visitors today.
I'll recommend a second look at New England and the points.
Craig Davis
Today's free play of the day is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the small number against the San Diego Chargers.
I'm sorry, but I don't believe in the Chargers, regardless of the fact they're playing at home. Through three games of the season, the Chargers are a hard team to figure out because they don't really have an established run game and Philip Rivers isn't throwing to guys like Vincent Jackson anymore.
I don't see the days of Eddie Royal catching three TDs in a game happening all that often. Antonio Gates is also not getting any younger, and while I respect what he's done so far this year, his knees won't hold up all season.
Dallas is without Miles Austin but it won't matter against this porous secondary. Dez Bryant could have a career day, Jason Witten should catch at least one TD, and I expect Terrance Williams and Dwayne Harris to play a big role in Austin's absence.
And let's not forget DeMarco Murray finally had his breakout game of the season last week vs. the Rams. OC Bill Callahan said from the beginning he wanted to give Murray at least 20 carries per game, but it took him three weeks to get there.
I think Murray has another big game and the Cowboys win by at least seven. Take Dallas as your free play of the day.
2♦ DALLAS
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie will be the Over in the London meeting between the Steelers and the Vikings.
Here we have a couple of desperate teams, both standing at 0-3 straight up and the loser for sure can kiss any playoff hopes goodbye.
Going to look for the points to add up in front of the foreign crowd, as Minnesota has allowed a whopping 96 points in their first three games, and ALL three of their games this season have landed Over the posted total. Until I see the Minny defense actually make some stops when it counts, cannot look for a low scoring game involving the Vikes.
Pittsburgh played a pair of Unders to open the year, but last week's primetime meeting with the Chicago Bears saw 63 combined points scored the last time the Steelers were on the field.
It may take a little bit for the teams to get settled into their new surroundings, but this is a low total, and I don't think it is going to be too hard for Minnesota to make it 4-0 Over the total when this game has gone final.
3♦ PITTSBURGH-MINNESOTA OVER
Brad Wilton
Sunday's NFL free play winner will be the home underdog Browns as they play host to the Bengals.
Dicey spot for Cincy, as they are coming off a home upset win of Green Bay, and do have a home date with the New England Patriots on the schedule for next Sunday.
Cleveland was bashed in the media for trading Trent Richardson, yet they walked out of Minnesota with an underdog outright win. Last season the Brownies wound up going 4-2 against the spread as the home dog, including an outright win over the Bengals.
The Browns are now 2-0-1 against the spread the last 3 series meetings versus the Bengals, and with them getting just over a field goal from the oddsmakers, this looks like a solid value spot to back the home dog.
Cleveland is 6-3 against the spread their last 9 tries when getting points on their home gridiron, and after today you can push that mark to 7-3 with the points.
2♦ CLEVELAND
Brett Atkins
My free play for today is on the Dallas Cowboys, going into San Diego laying short chalk to the Chargers. I don't see the Pokes losing this game, and think they'll be able to light things up in Southern Cal.
I know the Chargers' two losses this season have come after allowing an opponent to jump ahead on its final possession, and there are some who believe the third time is a charm. But my philosophy is the third time is going to be the opponent's charm, and it'll be the Cowboys not needing a late heroic effort.
And you know who I'm putting this one on? Dallas' star defensive lineman DeMarcus Ware, the sack leader with four after setting the franchise career record last week. Since the Cowboys know they won't have defensive end Anthony Spencer for the rest of the season, Ware has to be the catalyst every game. Plus, I can extend the chore to the entire D-line, as tackle Jason Hatcher has emerged as a vocal team leader, while the rest of the group has interchangeable parts.
Opposite that group will be an unsure offensive line, as left tackle King Dunlap has a concussion, which means Mike Harris, who started nine games at left tackle last year as a rookie, could be protecting Philip Rivers' blind spot against Ware. Then, journeyman Rich Ohrnberger might be in at left guard if Chad Rinehart (turf toe) isn't ready. Center Nick Hardwick (shin splints) and right guard Jeromey Clary (collarbone) is questionable. Right tackle D.J. Fluker was the only starter practicing regularly this past week.Wednesday.
Look for the pressure to be applied to Philip Rivers, and the Cowboys' entire defensive line to help us grab the cash.
1♦ DALLAS
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Sunday is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as it's the right spot for them to get it done, hosting the Arizona Cardinals.
Josh Freeman is out.
Mike Glennon is in.
More than anything, change is key, and the Buccaneers will benefit.
Glennon, a third-round draft pick out of North Carolina State makes his first NFL start for the Buccaneers (0-3) today, and I think we're going to see a little bit of life out of this team, and perhaps a bit of relief for coach Greg Schiano's hot seat.
I know Glennon didn't light it up in the preseason, but aren't we told not to judge how a team does in the preseason? Besides, the Bucs are fully capable of taking the pressure off him by establishing their running game with Doug Martin, who ranks second in the NFL with 297 yards rushing.
The matchup I can't wait to see today is Cardinals receiver Larry Fitzgerald against Bucs cornerback Darrelle Revis. While Fitzgerald is reportedly recovered from a sore hamstring, and expects to be full speed, everyone knows how Revis loves the challenge of shutting down elite receivers. The all-Pro DB has faced the Cardinals once, back in 2008 when he was still with the Jets, and he recorded two interceptions, returning one for a touchdown.
And just for the record about the winless Bucs, after tying for 29th in sacks a year ago with 27, they have 12 through three games this season - tied for third in the league, with eight players posting at least one. On the flipside, the Cardinals have allowed Palmer to be sacked nine times, including four last week.
Tampa Bay gets revved up on defense, the offense begins to click and the Bucs get their first win.
3♦ TAMPA BAY
Scott Delaney
My free play for today is on the Indianapolis Colts, laying the -9 to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. And how confident am I in the Indianapolis Colts? Well, though I had them as a premium play earlier this week, and have reduced them to a premium selection, I still like them -9 despite them being without three starters today.
Indy is banged up pretty good, including Ahmad Bradshaw, who has been ruled out with a neck injury, but I don't mind laying the chalk with Trent Richardson stepping up to take over in the backfield.
But more so, in this one, Jacksonville is horrible.
The Jaguars (0-3) rank last in the NFL in rushing defense, having given up an average of 168 yards a game. I say it'll make for a long afternoon against the Colts (2-1), as the newly acquired Richardson is dying to get consistent reps and prove his worth somewhere. The Colts gave up a first-round draft pick in 2014 to the Cleveland Bowns for the 5-foot-9, 225-pound Richardson, a bulky back who scored on his first carry with the Colts.
Richardson ran 13 times for 35 yards in last week's 27-7 win at San Francisc, and today don't be surprised to both numbers doubled - at the very least.
Making matters worse for the Jags, they are dealing with shortages on both sides of the ball, as starting wideout Justin Blackmon is suspended for one more game, backup Mike Brown has a broken bone in his back, and newcomer Stephen Burton was in the concussion program after feeling symptoms Wednesday. On defense, the Jaguars are reportedly starting two rookies at safety: Johnathan Cyprien and Josh Evans.
The Colts will just get this covered, winning by 13.
1♦ INDIANAPOLIS
Jeff Scott Sports
System Of The Week (0-0)
Play ON any 3-0 non-division home favorites of less than 7 points in game 4 of of a season. Teams in this spot are 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS since 1981. Play On Kansas City -4
3 UNIT PLAYS
Chicago/ Detroit Over 47.5: This one has the makings of an old fashioned shootout. The Bears offenses didn't look good vs the Steelers on Sunday night, but they will be taking on a much weaker defense in this one. The Offenses averages just 333.5 ypg, but their defense has also set them up with some short fields this year and that has helped their scoring average, which is 3rd in the league at 31.7 ppg. Today they should get some good points from their offense vs a Lions defense that is 18th overall and 19th vs the pass. Cutler should have a solid day here. The Lions will have a solid day on offense just about every time they take the field. The Lions come in 4th in total offense and 2nd in passing offense, while putting up 27.3 ppg on the year. They did play one home game this year and put up 34 points and 469 yards in that game. The Bears defense have made some big plays they year, but they are also 25th overall and 24th vs the pass, while allowing 24.7 ppg. This one should be fun. Key Trend--- The Over is 10-1-2 the least 4 years during game 4 of a season if a team (Chicago) is off 3 straight Overs.
Indianapolis/ Jacksonville Under 42.5: Boy I just don't see allot of points in this game, especially with Gabbart getting the start. This offense is bad, but even worse with him in there. The Jags offense is pathetic, averaging just 230.3 ypg and 9.3 ppg, which are both last in the league, in fact this offenses is so bad that they may be ranked 33rd in the league. Doesn't figure to get better today with Gabbart in their, who has a 30.8 passer rating on the year and a 63.8 career passer rating. MJD is healthy so we should see plenty of him here, which will chew up clock. On the other side of the ball we have a Jags defense that is terrible vs the run (32nd) but good vs the pass (9th). The Colts just had a field day vs the Niners on the ground and they are 4th in that department vs 26th in passing, so we should get allot of running from them vs a porous Jags run stopping unit. Plus should the Colts gut up by 14 or so you may really see them take the air out of the balls as they have Seattle on deck. Just very hard to see this game coming close to 40 when just one team can score and both teams should be running allot. Key Trend--- Since 2009, division road faves of more than 7 have gone 14-3 to the UNDER
Washington -3 over OAKLAND: The Skins are still a talented team, even though they are 0-3 on the year, while the Raiders are still one of the worst teams in the league. Their offense is looking better and they are off a game vs Detroit in which they played well but came up a bit short. The Skins are receiving a ton of pressure due to their 0-3 start and it's usually good for teams in this spot to hit the road and get away from the pressures of home and washing can't get much father from home than a trip to the left coast. The road team has won the last 5 meetings out right and I see a 6th road win in a row here as the Redskins have their best game on both sides of the ball to get that elusive first win by at least a TD. Key Trend--- The Raiders are 21-43-1 ATS vs losing teams.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Pittsburgh -2.5 over Minnesota: I know how beat up the Steelers are, but this team is still not all that bad and should be able to get their first win here. The Steeler offense did them in last week, but the defense played very well, allowing the Bears just 258 in the game. The Steeler defense does come in 5th overall and 3rd vs the pass, so this is still a formidable group. Offensively they are 30th in rushing and points scored, but they pass very well, ranking 9th in the league and will be taking on a weak Minnesota pass defense that is 28th in the league, allowing 318.3 ypg. Oh yeah the vikings have also allowed 30+ points in each game s far this year. This is a good defense for the Steelers to get their offense really going against, especially through the air. Look for the Steelers to put together a complete game and get their first win of the year, by at least a TD.
NY Jets/ Tennessee Under 41: I don't expect a ton of points in this one. Both teams play a slow pace, both teams run allot and both teams play some good defense, which is usually a recipe for a low scoring game. Jet games have averaged just 35 ppg, while Tennessee games have averaged just 38.7 ppg on the year. I see this one being payed in the low 30's at best.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ Denver Over 58.5: Just really hard to see this game stay under 60 points. The Broncos should be good for at least 38 points here, while the Eagles should get at least 24 of their own. Punters you can take the day off.
HOUSTON +1 over Seattle: Seahawks are a much better squad at home than on the road, and they are playing a houston squad that is looking for it's first real signature win of the year. I expect Houston and their defense to come up big in this one.
Top 5 Power Angles For Today (0-0)
The Over is 13-2 when the Arizona Cardinals are off a game in which they scored 7 or less.
The Baltimore Ravens are 1-11 ATS as non-division road favorites vs sub .500 opponents.
Under Pete Carroll, the Seattle Seahawks are 5-13-1 ATS as road favorites.
The Underdog is 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings between the Bengals and Browns.
The San Diego Chargers are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs non-conference opponents
Larry Ness
Arizona vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Greg Schiano gave a strong vote of confidence to struggling quarterback Josh Freeman this past Monday ("Josh is our starter," Schiano said), after the Bucs struggled again offensively in a Sunday loss at New England. However, something changed his mind fairly quickly, as rookie Mike Glennon (NC State) was announced as the team's starter for this game with the Cards, mid-week. It’s not difficult to see why a change is being made.
Freeman has been Tampa Bay's quarterback since making his first start in the eighth game of his rookie season (2009) after the team got off to an 0-7 start. He had a 25-6 ration and a QB rating of 95.9 in 20010 and then after an off year in 2011, threw for career highs of 4,065 yards and 27 TDs in 2012 as the Buccaneers set a franchise record with 389 points. That said, the 2013 season has been a disaster, as the Bucs opened 0-2, losing both when their opponents kicked game-winning FGs with two seconds and no time left on the clock, respectively. Then came last Sunday's 23-3 loss to the Pats.
The Bucs' three offensive TDs are tied with Jacksonville for the fewest in the league and Johnson has completed an NFL-low 45.7 percent of his passes for two TDs and three INTs, giving him a league-worst 59.3 QB rating. Glennon backed up current Seattle QB Russell Wilson at North Carolina State, before throwing for 62 TDs over his junior and senior seasons. He takes over an offense that ranks 31st in the league with an average of 282.0 YPG and 11.3 PPG (only the Jags are worse in both categories).
I guess the good news is, the Cards are coming to town. Arizona blew a Week 1 lead in St Louis to the Rams (StL hasn’t won since) but then earned a comeback win at home vs the Lions in Week 2. The Cardinals started well last week as Alfonso Smith's TD run capped an 11-play drive that gained 75 yards at New Orleans, but they had only 172 yards of total offense after that. Arizona punted EIGHT straight times following its initial drive before Carson Palmer was intercepted on its final two possessions in a 31-7 loss. Speaking of Palmer, his QB rating is 72.3 (26th) and he's thrown just three TDs (against four INTs) for a Cardinals offense that ranks 23rd with an average of 328.3 YPG.
Arizona is on the road for the second straight week and that hardly bodes well, as the Cardinals will take a NINE-game road losing streak into this contest, last winning away from home in Week 2 of the 2012 season, in of all places, New England (?). Brian Hoyer (Cleveland) stepped in for Brandon Weeden last week and won at Minnesota, so why not Glennon stepping in here for Johnson here at home and beating the Cards? That’s my bet.
John Ryan
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars
The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and actually has a solid shot at catching the Colts napping and get their first win of the season. The Colts acquired Trent Richardson from Cleveland and the combination of Bradshaw and he dominated the LOS in their surprising win against the 49ers. However, Bradshaw is out of this game with a neck injury and Richardson will have to carry the load. He is learning a new scheme and may become a liability in pass protection. I do not see the chemistry solid with him in the lineup. The one major factor that sticks out in my research is that the Colts rank 26th in the NFL allowing 129 rushing yards per game. Maurice Jones-Drew has had huge games against the Colts in his career and his ankle is reported to be near 100% for this game. The combo of a running game and play action will set up Cecil Shorts in man coverage leading to big plays in the vertical game. Jacksonville truly has no where to go but up and today they have an excellent shot at showing why the are a professional football team. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-9 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2002. Play against any team (INDIANAPOLIS) after a win by 14 or more points and is now facing an opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. Take the Jaguars.
Sports Betting Made Simple
NFL
New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons -2.5