Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday September, 30

DUNKEL INDEX

Washington at St. Louis
The Nationals look to follow up yesterday's 6-4 extra-inning win and take advantage of a St. Louis team that is 1-6 in Lance Lynn's last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Washington is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+115)

Game 901-902: Philadelphia at Miami (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.128; Miami (Eovaldi) 14.001
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-145); Under

Game 903-904: NY Mets at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Mejia) 15.479; Atlanta (Medlen) 16.206
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-300); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-300); Over

Game 905-906: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.469; Pittsburgh (Rodriguez) 14.208
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-145); Under

Game 907-908: Houston at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Lyles) 14.071; Milwaukee (Fiers) 15.329
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-250); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-250); Over

Game 909-910: Washington at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Detwiler) 16.194; St. Louis (Lynn) 15.649
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+115); Over

Game 911-912: San Francisco at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.010; San Diego (Volquez) 16.190
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); Under

Game 913-914: Colorado at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.663; LA Dodgers (Beckett) 15.289
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-245); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+205); Over

Game 915-916: Chicago Cubs at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Rusin) 12.672; Arizona (Collmenter) 15.990
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-200); Under

Game 917-918: Kansas City at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.765; Cleveland (McAllister) 15.084
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-125); Over

Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 15.765; Toronto (Alvarez) 15.052
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-200); Under

Game 921-922: Boston at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Stewart) 15.034; Baltimore (Saunders) 14.635
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 923-924: Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 15.193; White Sox (Quintana) 15.582
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+130); Under

Game 925-926: Detroit at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 15.294; Minnesota (Hendriks) 14.568
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-170); Over

Game 927-928: LA Angels at Texas (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Greinke) 14.801; Texas (Darvish) 15.862
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-140); Under

Game 929-930: Seattle at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Ramirez) 16.106; Oakland (Milone) 15.543
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+160); Over

Game 931-932: LA Angels at Texas (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 15.365; Texas (Holland) 16.533
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

WNBA

Indiana at Atlanta
The Fever look to bounce back from their 75-66 loss in Game 1 and build on their 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 games following a SU defeat. Indiana is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+4 1/2)

Game 663-664: Indiana at Atlanta (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 116.160; Atlanta 116.195
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 154
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 149
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+4 1/2); Over

Game 665-666: Minnesota at Seattle (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 118.752; Seattle 110.807
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 8; 142
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 4; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-4); Under

Ben BurnsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit
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I won with the Vikings over the 49'ers last week. I also successfully played against the Lions, cashing a ticket on Tennessee.
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I liked the fact that the Vikings were getting a touchdown at home against what I felt was a slightly over-rated 49'ers squad, which was off a big game (the "hand-shake game" on SNF) and playing an early game on the road. (You can read the analysis of that play here.)
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Likewise, I didn't feel that the Lions should be laying more than a field goal on the road against an under-rated and desperate Tennessee team. Not when they were also coming off the "hand-shake game" and playing their second straight on the road. (You can read the analysis of that play here.)
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Things are different this time though. The Lions are back home while the Vikings are now on the road. Off back-to-back losses, the Lions figure to be very hungry. After all, this was supposed to be "their year.
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This is still a talented Lions team. They were laying -10.5 when they hosted the Vikes last season. We're getting a far more reasonable line this week. Consider laying the points.

Art AronsonFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle vs. St. Louis
Pick:St. LouisFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ok. Ok. I admit it. I got lucky with Seattle on Monday night. (I don't think you can call my current 31-11 streak luck though.) I'm ready to go against my "beloved" Seahawks this week though. Remember, I backed this team when they beat Dallas (and Green Bay) but I also went against them when they lost at Arizona.
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The Hawks are again favored in a divisional road game here, as they were at Arizona. This time, they're also playing on a short week after having to fly cross the country. As tough as they are at home, they're only 5-13 on the road since the start of the 2010 season; 0-2 as road favorites of a field goal or less.
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When I played against the 49ers Sunday afternoon, I told you not to under-estimate the time zone factor. Once again, we have a West Coast team playing an early game here.
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The Rams couldn't get it done at Chicago last week but they won here at home the week before that. They're already 2-0 ATS in dome games. Grab the points.

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Oakland vs. Denver
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Two long-time AFC West rivals whose lone SU victory came at the expense of the Pittsburgh Steelers meet Sunday afternoon in Denver with the 1-2 Broncos hosting the 1-2 Raiders. Oakland is the one coming off the outright dog win over the Steelers last week, rallying back from a 1st half deficit to pull out the 34-31 win. This does not bode well for their chances this week, however, as the Silver and Black are 3-12 ATS off a SU dog win that was achieved at home. Last year saw them fail twice in this spot, losing by an average of 16 PPG. Denver comes into this contest off back to back losses, and considering the high profile acquisition of Peyton Manning in the offseason are desperate to get back on track. They’ve also lost outright each of the last four seasons at home to the rival Raiders, so the revenge motive will be present as well. Lay the points. Take Denver.

Jesse SchuleFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa BayFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bucs are coming off back to back losses, however they didn't make it easy for either of their last two opponents. After outscoring the Giants 24-13 in the first half in New York in Week 2, they ended up losing 41-34, as the Giants scored with just 31 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter.
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Last week in Dallas, they scored first, but then went to the locker room down by three points at halftime. They went on to lose in a close game, with the final score 16-10. It was a solid effort defensively to go into Dallas and hold the Cowboys to just 16 points.
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Dallas didn't enjoy any success at all running the football against the Bucs defense, they only managed 38 total yards rushing in last week's game. Tampa's pass rush was also very effective against Dallas, sacking Tony Romo four times, as well as forcing an INT.
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After the first game of the season, the Redskins and their rookie quarterback were surrounded by a wave of hype, but they have since lost back to back games against pretty average opponents in the Rams and Bengals. RG3 ran for 85 yards last week, but he was also sacked six times by the Bengals. If Washington can't do a better job protecting their quarterback, they aren't going to win many games this year. Andy Dalton had his way with the Redskins secondary last week, throwing for 328 yards and three scores. This comes just a week after they were lit up by Sam Bradford.
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The Bucs have won three of the last four head to head meetings between those two teams, including both games in Tampa Bay.
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The Bucs are 3-0 ATS this year, while Washington is 1-2 ATS.
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The Redskins still appear to be a little over-rated.
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Take the Bucs!

Carlo CampanellaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Dolphins vs. Arizona CardinalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Arizona CardinalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona is a "surprising" 3-0 this season, winning all 3 games as Dogs over tough opponents Seattle (2-1), New England (1-2), and Philadelphia (2-1). But, don't be fooled into thinking that this winning is new to Arizona, as these Cards are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS during their last 12 games going back to last season. Even with all the winning, the Cardinals find themselves laying points for the FIRST time this season as they host Miami Sunday. Even though each of their first 3 foes owned played Playoff-caliber offenses, Arizona is winning behind a stingy defense that's allowing just 13 points per game and has not allowed more than 18 points this season. With Miami starting rookie QB Tannehill, they have focused on their running game, but star RB Reggie Bush was injured last Sunday and Arizona held Philadelphia's RB McCoy to just 70 rushing yards on Sunday and the Patriots to just 90 team rushing yards in Week #2. Arizona has already beaten much better than these Dolphins and don't expect them to fall asleep against this weaker opponent on Sunday.

Johnny DetroitFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Dolphins +235FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After rolling over the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cardinals are 3-0 for the first time in 38 years! Toss in the "survivor pool massacre" upset as 13-point dogs against the New England Patriots, the Cardinals are the new "hot team" in the NFL. On the flip side, Reggie Bush gets injured and the Dolphins drop a game to the hapless New York Jets. All of that added up and the Cardinals are laying under a TD at home? Bet the farm and teaser the college fund on Arizona right? No. We LOVE Miami. This line should be no more than a FG and actually think the Dolphins will win outright on Sunday. The Arizona offense has not been overly impressive and Kolb is due for a letdown after lighting up his former team. The Dolphins have one of the best run defenses in football and will be up against one of the worst running teams in the league. We call for the upset on Sunday.

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Survivor Pick – Week 4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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GREEN BAY over New OrleansFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We could certainly use the Ravens or Texans this week but the majority of your poolies will be on one of those two teams and we’ll stick with our philosophy of not following the masses. The Packers would be the fourth or fifth choice on most people’s list after Houston, Baltimore, Arizona and Atlanta but not ours, as we expect Green Bay to come out with more focus than ever after that Monday night debacle.
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The Packers come off a tragic loss last week but beneath it all, we find a defense that has been very good. Let’s not overlook that Green Bay has faced three of the stronger D’s in the league after playing the 49ers, Bears and Seahawks. The Saints defense is a disaster, ranking #32 after getting torched by Washington, Carolina and Kansas City, not exactly the cream of the crop.
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The Packers are too sound a team, both offensively and defensively, to lose focus and allow that game to affect them in a negative way. Adversity reveals character. The Saints have revealed theirs after Bountygate with some ugly football. The Packers have a chance to show how strong a unit they are and we expect them to respond appropriately. The point-spread is an indication of the disparity between these two. It’s not without its merits.
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Week 4 pick – GREEN BAY straight up.
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N.Y. Jets √
Cincinnati √
Chicago √

John RyanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Bears at Cowboys
Play: UnderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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10* graded play UNDER Bear-Dallas in a NFC showdown set to start at 8:35 PM ET and will be televised on Monday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 41 points will be scored in this game. The sim shows that Dallas and Chicago will score less than 21 points. In past games where Dallas has scored 15 to 21 points they have posted a 50-25 UNDER mark since 1992. The Bears have posted a 55-30 UNDER record when they have allowed 15 to 21 points in game since 1992.
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Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 71-36 UNDER for 66.4% winners since 2002. Play UNDER the posted total with any team against the total that are off two or more consecutive UNDERS and now facing an opponent off three or more consecutive unders. Of the 107 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 42 of them have gone UNDER the total by seven or more points.
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The Chicago Bears are struggling offensively despite posting a 2-1 record through the first three weeks of the season. There is a very intriguing and contrary statistic involving the Bears offense. On the one hand they rank 29th in the NFL averaging just 4.5 yards-per-play. Yet, on a yards-per-point basis they rank best in the NFL posting an 11.0 ratio. This reflects the fact that Chicago?s defense has forced turnovers giving the offense a short field to operate and enhances the probability of scoring points.
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With that piece of information in hand it is painfully clear to me that the Dallas offensive scheme will be to establish the run and use short slant and out routes to control the clock . This entire scheme will be used to minimize turnovers and to not provide the Bears with a short field for scoring opportunities.
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The Bears will be without Matt Forte and this severely hurts the Bears offensive scheme. This leaves only Michael Bush at running back and he has averaged just 3.5 yards-per-carry on 44 attempt for the season. Cutler needs to be able to use play action to generate vertical play routes. If he does not have that option, then all that will be left or slants, ins, and bubble screen passes to minimize the Dallas defensive front seven pressure.
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When these two schemes matchup, it gives the immediate feel of a field possession type of game and one where both teams are not going to take risks with vertical pass routes. Misdirection plays may be the most run play by both teams.
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Dallas is a solid 10-2 UNDER facing teams who force 2.75 or more turnovers per game on the season since 1992; 15-5 UNDER in home games vs. poor passing teams with a completion percentage of 53% or worse. since 1992. Moreover, Dallas is 17-6 UNDER in home games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. I believe this last game situation reinforces Dallas commitment to the running game, especially after a game where the run game struggled to get established.

Freddy WillsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle Seahawks vs. St Louis Rams
Play: St Louis Rams
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Ironically the Seahawks leave their hostile environment in Seattle and fly east for a hostile environment in St. Louis. Public is loving the Seahawks after Monday’s defensive performance and I think it’s going to be a little different on the road where they are unable to get the same advantages against opposing offensive lines. St. Louis also likes to run a no huddle scheme on offense that will give Seattle fits. The Seahawks do not travel well and are 17-36 -2 ATS int heir last 55 road games.
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Don’t sleep on the Rams defense either as they have one of the best pass rushes led by Chris Long. This leads to turnovers and good pass defense. I think it will lead to the being aggressive to sell out and stop the rushing game from Seattle because Russell Wilson has been kept under wraps thus far. They are not letting him throw and I do not anticipate them doing that here today. It’s not like the Seahawks are dominating on the ground either they averaged just 3.9 ypc on the road to the Rams 4.4 at home last year and this year the two teams are tied at 4.1 ypc. The Rams ran all over the Redskins in a similar home game where they were 3 poitn under dogs.
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Don’t sleep on the Rams, Jeff Fisher is an excellent coach and he’ll have his team ready in this game. Seattle is ranked 22nd allowing 44.7% conversions on third down and St. Louis should be able to stay on the field all day by converting these third downs now that they are home where they converted 58% against a good Redskins defense. While Seattle is 30th in converting third downs and struggle in the red zone ranked 31 with a meager 25% RZ TD%. I expect this game to be either tight throughout or for the Rams to win by multiple touchdowns. Either way unless the Seahawks suddenly let Russell Wilson loose the game plan is pretty easy for the Rams and the Seahawks are in a major let down spot on short rest after they got lucky against the Packers.

Joseph D'AmicoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Cincinnati BengalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jacksonville might be the least talented squad in the NFL. Last week, Jones-Drew racked up 177 yards rushing against an Indy club that has serious issues on both their DL and LB corps. The RB won't get away with that vs. a Bengals "D" that is very fast and very physical. QB, Gabbert will be flushed out of the pocket and make costly mistakes. Cincy won their L2 over Cleveland and Washington. Dalton, Green-Ellis, and the talented WRs of Green, Hawkins, Binns, and Gresham can light up the Jags defense. This is a talented team and due to scheduling, has a chance to beat out the Steelers in their Division. I like Cincinnati here. But to get a HUGE money making weekend, get all my winners right here.

Nick ParsonsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Bengals at Jaguars
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This match-up features defenses that have given up almost identical 410+ yards of offense and 155 yards rushing in each of their games to date. Cincinnati has benefitted from a more potent offense and after getting blown out in the home opener aginst division rival Baltimore, the Bengals have averaged 36 points per game and have mixed the run with the pass as Andy Dalton has averaged almost 300 yards passing as new pickup BenJarvus Green-Ellis has suppored the ground game. Jacksonville has out rushed Cincinnati 121-100 per game as Maurice Jones-Drew put up 177 yards on the ground last week against Indy. With two weak run defenses we are looking at the running-backs to have strong outings on both sides, and that will open up the passing game which Jacksonville is looking to get on track with number one draft pick Justin Blackmon. Two teams that were known for having touch D, now sits where three touchdowns for each team will push this game over the number. Take the Over.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington +2½ -106 over TAMPA BAY
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Tampa has yet to not cover but this is also the first time it has been asked to give away points to an opponent. In this case, they’ll be spotting points to a Washington team that has scored 28 points or more in every game and we’re not convinced the Bucs can keep pace.
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Bucs managed to stay close to the Giants and Dallas but while the scores may appear tight, Tampa was clearly the inferior squad in both. In Dallas, the Buccaneers were held to only one touchdown, as Josh Freeman continues to struggle with two of his three games thus far producing fewer than 140 passing yards while completing only 51% of passes. Turnovers played a huge part in the contest with the Giants, an opportunity lost, as Tampa could not take advantage of New York’s error-filled afternoon.
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This now becomes a tall order for a Bucs team that can’t seem to get all of its parts working in unison on same day. Washington’s pass defense has been leaky but this Bucs offence is not one to fear. With Washington losing back-to-back games to St. Louis and Cincinnati, its stock is low. With Tampa winning its opener and subsequently nearly pulling off back-to-back upsets, its stock is high. This now becomes a true sell-high, buy low opportunity and we’re on it.
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Miami +5½ -106 over ARIZONA
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Dating back 2+ years, a span of 35 games, the Cardinals have been priced in this range just twice. The first time was in Cam Newton’s first-ever regular season game in last year’s season opener when the Cardinals covered at home as a 6½-pt. choice (winning by 7). The second attempt, midway through last year but also at home, was as a 6-pt. choice to the hapless Browns. That one resulted in a non-covering 20-17 win. Point being, that while Arizona is off to a fabulous start, it’s a much different animal having to win by a margin than it is to be pulling off these upsets.
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Arizona’s defence has suddenly become a football headline. With an unexpected 3-0 start, media has focused upon this part of the Cardinals’ game. The players lap this stuff up and when it is a team unaccustomed to success, they sometimes forget about an upcoming task at hand. With featured Thursday night game in St. Louis on deck and now being prohibitive chalk, this is uncharted territory for this group.
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After a horrible pre-season and displaying other issues on HBO’s Hard Knocks series before getting smoked in opener to Houston, pundits everywhere were predicting a painful season for the Dolphins. While they have a long way to go, the team has been competing. After handling the Raiders two weeks ago, Miami could easily be 2-1 after blowing last week’s OT game to the Jets. The Fish will continue to do battle here and are capable of pulling off an upset against this unsuspecting host.
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Carolina +7 -106 over ATLANTA
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Nothing against the AFC West but it’s not exactly the best grouping in football. In an unusual scheduling sequence, the Falcons opened this season with three wins against three members from that division. While a sense of security may not exactly be false, flying back from the west coast to face a divisional rival, after the Panthers have had extra rest and were embarrassed on a Thursday prime timer, a feeling of complacency could occur.
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Carolina is off to a poor start but with a strong running game and the added prep time, expect a better effort here. Atlanta has not been more than a 3-pt choice in this young season. Last year, they were only 3½ at home to these Panthers. The market has overreacted here and we’ll gladly back the undervalued side.
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JACKSONVILLE +120 over Cincinnati
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The Bengals may have the winning record here but we’re not quite ready to trust them as road chalk, especially when facing a team capable of exploiting Cincinnati’s most glaring weakness.
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Aside from giving up the 2nd most points in the league, the Bengals are currently relinquishing 155 yards per game on the ground, ranking them 31st in the NFL. That poses a problem when facing Jacksonville star Maurice Jones-Drew, who appears to be hitting his best form after a 177-yard rushing performance last week. This will be the second home game for the Jags after losing first one to elite Texans and after gritty win at Indy, expect a spirited effort here against a suspect visitor.

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Oakland +6½ +102 over DENVER
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Denver has had a trying schedule and unfortunately for them, it’s not about to get any easier. The Broncos hosted the opening Sunday nighter, with all eyes upon the return of Peyton Manning. That one was followed up with Monday nighter against the undefeated Falcons only to be followed by facing another undefeated and talented Houston squad. Denver/Oakland is a heated rivalry. This is anything but a soft spot for the host and to compound things, Denver goes to New England and San Diego in its next two. Who did Pat Bowlen tick off? In addition, we’re not sure if Manning is right. He can’t seem to go long and his ball lacks zip.
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Oakland RB Darren McFadden has dropped triple digits on the Broncos each of the last three times he's seen them, averaging a robust 7.4 yards per carry in the process. The road team in this series has never been intimidated, as the visitor has emerged victoriously in seven of past eight meetings. With last week’s win and tough situation for the Broncos, Raiders should be able to take advantage. No units risked.
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Minnesota +4½ -110 over DETROIT
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Lions could be suffering from curse of the 10-win season. Detroit sits at a less than impressive 1-2 with its only victory occurring in final seconds of home opener. The Vikings weren't expected to do much but after knocking off the Niners last week and with Christian Ponder completing 70% of his passes, this choice isn't difficult. No units risked.
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HOUSTON -12 -103 over Tennessee
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Texans are steamrolling and no reason for it to stop here. Double-digit faves are often risky but this number is actually reduced because of Tennessee’s 44-pt. outburst last week. The 1-2 Titans come off that thrilling win over the Lions but make no mistakes here, the Titans defense has been almost nonexistent. The only other trip away from home was the 28-point loss in San Diego, not to mention the 34-13 lambasting at home to the Patriots.
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Matt Schaub should have his way against this shaky Tennessee defense. He's produced multiple touchdowns in each of his last three against the Titans and this year’s pass stoppers is weaker than years past. Tennessee's secondary has surrendered eight passing scores and 970 passing yards already and things don’t figure to tighten up here. This one could get ugly. No units risked.
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KANSAS CITY +106 over San Diego
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Surprising to learn that the Chiefs lead the league in total offensive yards per game. Perhaps that is why oddsmakers listed the Chargers as the favorite for this one before the wisenheimers jumped in and corrected things. The Chargers are their usual rollercoaster self and rarely do well at Arrowhead. No units risked.
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BUFFALO +4 -107 over New England
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It would be easy to make a case for the Patriots. After all, they have a losing record for the first time in 10 years and as a result, should have plenty of motivation. They’ve also defeated the Bills in nine of past 10 meetings. However, one can never ignore the betting line. The Patriots are still vastly popular while the Bills are only popular in Buffalo. Oddsmakers are fully aware of public tendencies towards certain teams yet they’re offering the Pats up at a seemingly cheap price. That’s a red flag that we always pay attention to.
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Pats won their opener convincingly but then lost next two. Bills were pummelled in their debut but rebounded with pair of wins. Why not follow the bouncing balls and take the division home dog against a fragile visitor? No units risked
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N.Y. JETS +4 -110 over San Francisco
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San Francisco forced to play its 3rd road game in four weeks and this one coming on heels of smarting loss at Minnesota. Niners stayed in Youngstown, Ohio all week after a schedule that had them fly to Green Bay for opener, back home to host Lions and then head back east to play at Minnesota. Rather than flying home and back out to East coast, San Fran brass opted to remain close but the team could be out of sorts from excessive and unusual travel schedule.
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A lot is being made of Jets losing key defender Darrelle Revis. While Revis’s loss is significant, it may not mean much in this one as the Niners do not possess a deep threat, aerial attack. Jets aren’t always pretty but they can be efficient. Points offered are generous in what figures to be a tight one. No units risked.
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ST. LOUIS +2½ +103 over Seattle
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Beneath the brouhaha of Monday’s “victory”, is the underlying issue with Seattle’s offense. The Seahawks have a pair of wins under QB Russell Wilson but the rookie is averaging less than 130 yards per game, dead last in the league.
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Playing against the victorious Monday night club, having to travel on short week has been a strong angle over the years and this traveler is coming off about the most bizarre win in recent memory. It was a media circus with the entire football world focused upon the play that ultimately ended the referee’s lockout. Pete Carroll is not the type to settle his team.
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St. Louis should have extra motivation here after being whacked twice by this rival last season. Rams have won only home game and hosting this distracted division foe offers reason for optimism. No units risked.
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GREEN BAY -7½ over New Orleans
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The Saints may want to put a bounty on their defensive coordinator. At first glance, this point-spread might seem a bit high but opposing quarterbacks are abusing this weak New Orleans secondary and having to face one of the league’s best in Aaron Rodgers is not encouraging.
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The Packers come off a tragic loss last week but beneath it all, we find a defense that has been very good. Let’s not overlook that Green Bay has faced three of the stronger D’s in the league after playing the 49ers, Bears and Seahawks. Packers are in a foul mood. Saints suffer for it. No units risked.
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PHILADELPHIA -1 -110 over N.Y. Giants
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The Eagles have been sloppier than one those famous sandwiches that Philly is known for. Still, Eagles thrive in this series, winning and covering in 7 of past 8. While Michael Vick remains reckless, the Giants’ pass rush has not been as efficient as last season’s with only six sacks on the season.
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The Giants are 2-1 but Eli Manning has only posted one big game, his 510-yard effort in the comeback win over the visiting Buccaneers. Outside of that, the G-Men have managed just one major per week with moderate passing yardage. He’ll now see an Eagles squad that has a top 10 defense in almost every category and one that is very familiar with Manning and company.
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G-Men might be overvalued here after Thursday night waxing of Carolina. While New York was able to overcome injuries to some key players versus the Panthers, this foe is too talented to get away with it again. Price seems cheap. No units risked.