Sean Higgs
San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs
KC 10-4-1 ATS last 15 in the series. Why are we getting points at home? Chargers beat an Oakland team that I think is terrible. They beat a rookie QB led Tennessee team. And they welcome the Falcons in fresh off a big MNF win and a cross-country flight only to get demolished at home.. Will gladly take any points here as I see this as a false-fave situation.
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Dolphins +6FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This will not be a popular pick guys, often cases the sharpest selections are not. I fully expect the masses to be coming at the window in droves getting their action down on the Cardinals. Off to a flying start with the lowly Dolphins coming to town, why not? Because it's just not that easy fellas. Perhaps the Birds will keep the foot on the pedal and blow Miami off the field. I just have my own doubts about that. I'm just not that sold on the Cardinals offense racking up that many points against a Miami defense that is better than advertised. I look for a hard fought slug fest here that could very easily be in question to the very end. For those of you who love a nice trend to support the cause I'll be more than happy to oblige you. Reading and studying trends if the part of capping I hate most but you have to perform your due diligence. Try this one on for size. Miami is a stellar 13-2 against the number when traveling to battle an opponent that sports a winning record since the 2007 season. I predict the wash rooms in Vegas will be littered late sunday with torn up Cardinals bet tickets. I say the right side here is the Dolphins getting the generous half dozens points. Many sincere thanks as always fellas. Best of luck to us and enjoy the ballgame.
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San Francisco -3 (-130)
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We locked this in right before a bit of line movement earlier in the week, but some sportsbooks still give you the option to buy this game down to -3 at -135. I also like -4 +101 which is available right now as well.
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The New York Jets opened up the season with a blowout 48-28 win over the Buffalo Bills as 3 point favorites, but then went into Pittsburgh and lost 27-10 as 5 point underdogs. Last week the Jets improved to 2-1 with a 23-20 overtime victory against the Dolphins. Mark Sanchez had his second rough outing going 21/45 for 306 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs, while the running game for New York didn't get much going at all. Miami RB Reggie Bush was injured in the game and I think that was the difference for the Jets winning, as Bush was averaging 6.1 yards per carry before getting injured. Mark Sanchez is 23rd in the league for QB Rating at 78.3 as he has completed just 50.5% of his passes and has 5 TDs and 3 INTs on the year. Overall the Jets offense is 22nd in the league averaging just 330 yards per game on offense. Defensively they are 21st in the league giving up 367 yards against per game, while allowing 25 points against per game (18th). The Jets took a big loss in their victory last week with their defensive star, Darrelle Revis, injuring his knee and is expected to miss the entire season.
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The San Francisco Giants went into Green Bay in Week 1 as 6 point underdogs and won outright 30-22, quickly making them early Super Bowl favorites. The 49ers followed that up with a Sunday Night victory against the Lions, 27-19, as 7 point favorites. Starting 2-0 the 49ers entered Minnesota last week as 6.5 road favorites, but ended up being upset 24-13 as they struggled on both sides of the ball. I think the loss was a good wake up call for the 49ers team that might have gotten a bit ahead of themselves after a hot start. QB Alex Smith has been effective completing just under 70% of his passes for 5 TDs and 1 INT, good for a QB rating of 102.7. The San Francisco offense is ranked just above the Jets at 21st with 335 yards per game, but their defense is 11th ranked allowing 321 yards against per game. After finishing last season with the 4th ranked defense I expect the 49ers numbers to continue to improve as they've started the season against 3 good offenses in GB, Det, and Min (with 2 of those games on the road).
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The Jets were 6-2 at home last season, but their 2 losses were their only two games that they hosted a playoff team (New England and New York). San Francisco went 6-2 on the road last season, and beat 2 playoff teams (Detroit, Cincinnati) as well as some other good home teams (Philadelphia, Seattle). Their two road losses came against Baltimore and Arizona by a combined 12 points. San Francisco has gone 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 overall, and 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss. The Jets are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record. The Jets haven't gotten much done on offense in their last two games, and now they face their toughest test yet. San Francisco looks to avoid back to back losses and I think they come out hard Sunday and will be too much for the Jets. New York doesn't match up with the 49ers, and I think they get a big bounce back road victory and cover the spread.
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Kansas City Chiefs +1
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The San Diego Chargers suffered their first loss of the season last weekend, but it came in a big way. The Chargers entered the game as 3 point favorites hosting the Atlanta Falcons and were blown out 27-3 in front of their home crowd. Matt Ryan completed 30 of 40 passes with 3 Touchdowns against the Chargers defense, while Michael Turner added 80 yards on the ground. Phillip Rivers didn't look good going 21 for 38 with just 178 yards and 2 INTs. San Diego's two victories have come @ Oakland and vs a weak Tennessee team at home. Although San Diego covered the spread in both games, neither victories impressed me too much. The Chargers are ranked 23rd offensively averaging 318 yards per game, and they are 21st scoring 21 points per game. Despite a bad game on defense last week the Chargers are still 9th in the league averaging 305 yards against per game.
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The Kansas City Chiefs got their first win last week as 9 point underdogs in New Orleans. The Chiefs forced overtime and went on to kick a game winning field goal to pull off the upset. In Week 1 the Chiefs hosted the Atlanta Falcons and beat 40-24 as 3 point underdogs, and then went into Buffalo in Week 2 and 3 point underdogs and lost 35-17. Jamaal Charles broke out for a big game last week with 233 yards and 1 TD on 33 attempts, and I look for him to bring that effort into Sunday's game as the Chiefs look to improve to 2-2 (which would have them in 1st place in the division due to the h2h tie breaker). Kansas City ranks 1st offensively with 441 yards per game, but need to limit their turnovers as they are -8 already on the season. The Chiefs have completed 48% of their 3rd down attempts (4th in the league) and are averaging 22.7 ppg (17th). Defensively KC is 16th in the league allowing 347 yards against per game, although they are giving up a high 33 ppg (28th). Protecting the ball is going to be key for the Chiefs to win this game.
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Kansas City was just 3-5 at home last season but 4-4 against the spread. Losses at home came against Buffalo, Miami, Denver, Pittsburgh and Oakland. The Chiefs beat San Diego 23-20 at home in overtime in Week 8 as 3 point underdogs, which came after the Chargers won their Week 3 meeting 20-17 as 14.5 point favorites. In their 4 meetings over the past 2 years the Chiefs are 3-1 ATS and 2-0 at home vs San Diego. Dating back the Chiefs are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs the Chargers. If you look back at last season you will notice the Chargers victories came against Minnesota, Kansas City, Miami, Denver, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Baltimore and Oakland (just 2 playoff teams) and I think they are a bit overrated after a 2-0 start to the season. Their victory in Oakland was mainly due to poor special teams play by the Raiders, and they could easily be 1-2 with their only win coming against a rookie QB in his first road game. Take note that the Chargers have good defensive numbers vs the rush this season, but their 3 opponents so far this year rank 25th, 31st, and 32nd in rushing. The Chargers were 20th in rush defense last season. I think Kansas City will be able to establish a good running game and allow Matt Cassel to be efficient. This won't be a popular pick this week but give me KC at home vs their divisional rivals.
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Bengals @ Jaguars Over 42.5
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Cincinnati is coming off an impressive victory in Washington, which moved them to 2-1 on the season. The Bengals had a tough start to the season as they travelled to Baltimore in a Monday Night match up and went on to lose 44-13, but the Bengals have rebounded nicely with a 34-27 victory against Cleveland and a 38-31 victory against Washington. Cincinnati comes into this one 8th in the NFL offensively averaging 391 yards per game, while they are 8th with 28.3 points per game. QB Andy Dalton has been solid with a 105.0 QB Rating while completing 68.4% of his passes. The Bengals are 29th in the league defensively allowing 416 yards against per game, while giving up a high 34 points per game (31st).
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The Jaguars managed to grab their first victory of the season last week as 3 point underdogs. The Jaguars beat Luck and the Colts 22-17 with a last minute drive to take the game and a bit of momentum with them back home. Losses came against Minnesota (26-23 in OT) and Houston (27-7). RB Maurice Jones-Drew got it going last week with 177 yards and 1 TD on 28 attempts. Overall Jacksonville is 30th in the league on offense with 268 yards per game, but MJD is a big part of that and his success last week should carry into this game. The Bengals are 31st against the rush allowing 154 rushing yards against per game. Take note that Cincinnati should also be able to get a balanced attack going as the Jaguars are barely in front of the Bengals at 30th in the NFL against the rush allowing 154 rushing yards against per game. Overall the Jags are 28th in the league in defense giving up 412 yards against per game.
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Take note that the OVER is 5-0 in the Bengals last 5 games overall, 6-1 in their last 7 vs a team with a losing record, and 14-3 in their last 17 games vs AFC opponents. The OVER is also 8-3 in their last 11 road games, and 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs a team with a losing home record. The Jags have been playing to the under lately as their offense hasn't done much over the past year or so, but the OVER is 10-4 in their last 14 games following a straight up win. The Bengals have been great offensively their last two games and Andy Dalton has been solid under center. Also with MJD coming home after a big game I expect him to help get the offense going this week. Two struggling defenses calls for the OVER in this one.
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Dolphins @ Cardinals Under 39.5
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Miami lost a tough one last week as they fell 23-20 against the New York Jets in overtime. The Dolphins lost their season opener 30-10 in Houston before winning big 35-13 at home against the Raiders. RB Reggie Bush was hurt in their lost last week, which hurt them as he looked like he was going to have back to back very quality games. He is probable this week. Despite almost being 2-1 entering this game, the Dolphin's rookie QB Ryan Tannehill is last in the league with a 58.3 QB rating completing just 52.9% of his passes with 1 TD and 4 INTs. The ground game has helped the Dolphins rank 12th overall with 369 yards per game. The defense is ranked 22nd giving up 373 yards against per game.
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Arizona continued their unexpected start to the season as they improved to 3-0 after a 27-6 home victory against the Eagles last week as 3 point underdogs. In week 1 the Cardinals beat Seattle 20-16 and followed that up with a 20-18 win in New England as 13 point underdogs. The offense ranks 31s in the league with just 262 yards per game, but they've been effective when they've needed to be. The story has been on defense where they are 10th in the league giving up 316 yards against per game against some good offenses, and they are 2nd in the NFL giving up just 13.3 points against per game.
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Take note that the UNDER is 22-8 in the Dolphins last 30 road games, 12-5-1 in their last 18 games overall, and 9-3 in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. The UNDER is also 4-1-1 in the Cardinals last 6 games overall, 3-0-1 in their last 4 games following a straight up win, and 5-0 in their last 5 September games (including 3-0 this season). In this match up we have two underrated and solid defenses going up against average at best offenses. Tannehill struggled in his first road game and I don't expect much here against a good Cardinals defense. I think both teams will be looking to run the ball quite a bit as part of their game plan, and points will be tough to come by. Take the UNDER.
Wunderdog
New England at Buffalo
Pick: New England -3.5
For the second week in a row we get tremendous value backing a great team. We took New England last week and cashed. We'll do it again this week. The New England Patriots are off to a 1-2 start, but it is not like they have played poorly. The teams they lost to, Baltimore and Arizona, are off to a combined 6-1 start. Last week they had the game in hand on the road against a great team until a controversial last minute field goal by the Ravens. It has been nearly a decade since the Pats lost three in a row, so I expect them to come out breathing fire in this one. The last five times this team lost two in a row, they have come back to win all five by a combined score of 157-57. Arizona's 3-0 start has been impressive but did you know that the Patriots out-gained them 387-245? New England also moved the chains well in that game, getting 25 first downs compared to just 16 for the Cardinals. New England also had 33 first downs at Baltimore in the 1-point loss. In the game vs. Arizona the Pats missed a game winning FG as well. The Bills need all the weapons they can muster vs. New England, so the loss of C.J. Spiller is a big one. Spiller had gained 308 yards on 33 carries before injuring his shoulder. They also have lost David Nelson who caught 61 balls a year ago to a torn ACL. The Patriots are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 after a loss and 51-24-3 ATS on the road in their last 78. They are also 30-15 ATS in their last 45 games after allowing 30+ points. Finally, the Pats have covered seven of the last eight here in this building. Under Belichick, New England is 34-20 ATS as a road favorite. My computer matchup for this game has New England winning by a touchdown. I agree: Lay the points and look for a big New England win.
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Seattle vs. St. Louis
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This sets up as a classic trap game for the Seahawks, who are off one of the most controversial wins (and covers) in NFL History Monday night as they beat the Packers on a late Hail Mary that was more Packers interception than Seattle touchdown. By now, you certainly know all about this play and its effects. The replacement refs are now history, but the games must go on. And Seattle must hit the road, where they are most certainly not the same team they are at home.
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The Seahawks are just 6-20 SU on the road under Pete Carroll. They lost their only road game of the season so far, back in Week 1 at Arizona. Including that, they have never covered as a road favorite under Carroll. In two of three games this season, Seattle has scored 16 or fewer points. Playing on a short week, after such an emotional win, will not work to their advantage.
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St. Louis is 1-2, but deserved to win in the opener at Detroit, then won its only home game to date, upsetting Washington as a small home dog, a similar price range to what they find themselves in here.
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Note that playing against favorites off a straight up win as a home dog the previous week, that have a winning record on the season, would yield a return of 67-32 ATS, or 67 percent ATS!
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New England vs. Buffalo
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Pats are becoming the king of close-call losses, entering today’s fray off a pair of defeats by 1 and 2 points apiece. That’s not good news if you’re a New Englander: consider the fact that NFL teams off a pair of losses by a combined total of 3 points are 0-6 SU and ATS since 1980 when facing a foe off a SU and ATS win. That goes heads up against the Patriots’ 10-1 ATS record on this field when the Bills enter off a SU and ATS win. On the flip side, Buffalo brings powerful numbers of its own, including a mind-boggling 19-1 SU and 16-2-1 ATS log in games off a win during the first four games of the season against a sub .500 opponent off a loss. Toss in Buffalo's 7-0 ATS record as a dog of 3 or more points against opponents off back-to-back losses – and Chan Gailey’s 7-1 SU and 6-0-2 ATS career mark in the NFL at home in games against foes off a air of losses – and we have the makings of a 12-round championship fight. With home dogs in this league standing 12-7 SU and 13-5-1 ATS this season, advantage goes to the hometown challenger. We recommend a 1-unit play on Buffalo.
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Washington vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
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We played against Washington last week and the main reason paid off for a win. It was the defense we were going against an sure enough, the Redskins allowed 478 total yards and 38 points to the Bengals. The offense nearly made up for it but instead Washington dropped to 1-2 with the lone win coming opening week against New Orleans which is no longer looking very impressive. Even though the schedule hasn't been loaded with heavyweights, playing three of the first four games on the road is tough.
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Tampa Bay opened the season with a quality win over Carolina which stopped the bleeding from last year when it lost its last 10 games. The Buccaneers had a shot at taking out the Giants but blew a late lead and they played another very good game at Dallas last week despite coming up short. While many will see that roadtrip as discouraging, Tampa Bay is coming away with a lot confidence as it was able to hang around with two of the best teams in the NFC East.
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As mentioned, the Redskins defense was the issue against the Bengals just as it was against the Rams the previous week. They are ranked 29th in scoring defense and 30th in total defense and just when things could not have gone worse, they did. They lost two huge defenders two weeks ago against the Rams as Brian Orakpo tore the pectoral muscle near his left shoulder, while Adam Carriker tore the quad tendon in his right knee. Both were put on injured reserve.
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This is great news for a Tampa Bay offense that has yet to find its groove on offense. The Buccaneers are averaging just 243.7 ypg and 4.3 yppl both of which are dead last in the league. They need to open things up and that means quit running between the tackles on too many first down plays. Quarterback Josh Freeman is coming off a dreadful game against the Cowboys but he has come back before. In the previous eight times he has had a passer rating below 60, he has bounced back with a great game in seven of those.
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The Buccaneers have bounced back as a team as well as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. On the other side, Washington quarterback Robert Griffin III has lived up to expectations as he has gotten off to a solid start. He will be facing a tough defense here though. The Buccaneers were roughed up against the Giants as they allowed 604 total yards but in the other two games, they allowed just 301 and 297 yards so the ability is definitely there.
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Cincinnati vs. Jacksonville
Pick: CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Maurice Jones-Drew tried to renegotiate his contract after leading the NFL with 1,606 rushing yards in 2011. He missed 38 days, including all of training camp, but returned without a new deal. Jacksonville fans could hardly be blamed if they were concerned that Drew would mirror the situation in Tennessee, in which Chris Johnson held out and since his return, has been a shell of his former shelf. Drew gained 137 yards (4.4 YPC) in his first two games of 2012 and then last Sunday, ‘EXPLODED’ for 177 yards, including a 59-yard TD, in last Sunday's 22-17 win over Indianapolis (team’s first win). QB Blaine Gabbert still has a long way to go (he continues to experience growing pains in his second NFL season) but the fact that he has yet to throw an INT in 79 attempts (through three games), is a HUGE step in the right direction. The Bengals earned a wild card berth last year but opened this season by getting beat fairly handily in Week 1 at Baltimore, 44-13. That game followed last year’s pattern, as during the regular season the 9-7 Bengals were 1-6 against opponents that finished .500 or better last year and then fell to 1-7 with a 31-10 loss to Houston in the wild card round. However, the Bengals have won two straight since their Week 1 loss, beating Cleveland 34-27 and Washington 38-31. QB Andy Dalton has been terrific the last two weeks, throwing for 318 yards with three TDs (one INT) and a QB rating of 128.2 vs Cleveland plus throwing for 328 yards with another three TDs (one INT) and a QB rating of 132.9 vs the Redskins. Dalton's 105.0 passer rating ranks second in the AFC after three games and his 158.3 rating in the fourth quarter is the best in the NFL! The Jags will have trouble keeping the Bengals out of the end zone, considering that they’ve faced 108 pass attempts through three games with just one INT and are allowing 154.3 YPG on the ground (4.4 YPC). This year’s Jacksonville offense seems in much better shape but these Jags still have a long way come. After all, they averaged an NFL-low 259.3 YPG in 2011 and at 15.2 PPG, only the Browns (13.6), Chiefs (13.3) and Rams (12.1) scored fewer points. Look for the Bengals to move to 3-1 here and considering the pointspread, a win almost INSURES a cover.
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Cincinnati vs. Jacksonville
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The Bengals defense was a unit of strength last year and looked pretty decent in August. But here in September, Cinci has been torched all three of their games. The Ravens moved through this D like a hot knife through butter, hanging 44 on the Bengals on opening night.
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Cinci’s performance against the Browns the following week was even worse. Cleveland rookie QB Brandon Weeden had a QB rating of 5.1 in his debut at home against Philly. On the road at Cinci, Weeden had a QB rating of 114.9, throwing for 8.7 yards per attempt. Trent Richardson was held to 19 yards on 39 carries in the Browns opener. Against Cinci, he carried 19 times again, but against the Bengals D, he gained 109 yards. The Browns had only one ‘three and out’ all afternoon. And last week, Washington hung 31 on the Bengals defense; again facing little resistance.
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The Bengals secondary is a complete disaster area right now. They could be without their top four cornerbacks this week, with Nate Clements, Leon Hall, Dre Kirkpatrick and Jason Allen all banged up, leaving the secondary very shorthanded here. Even Blaine Gabbert should be able to find open receivers this week!
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But for all of Cinci’s defensive question marks, this offense has five big play TD’s of 40+ yards in the last two weeks alone. Andy Dalton is a bet-on QB all the way, and Jay Gruden’s offense is littered with downfield playmakers – AJ Green, Jermaine Gresham, Andrew Hawkins and Brandon Tate, just to name a few. The Bengals have cashed three consecutive Overs to open the season, all by two touchdowns or more. That’s a streak worth riding again here. Take the Over
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Carolina vs. Atlanta
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The Falcons have looked dominating this season with a home win vs. Denver 27-21 and two road wins at KC 40-24 and at SD 27-3. They are at home Sunday where they have been tough, winning 15-5 SU and 12-6-2 ATS.
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QB Matt Ryan has led the way with 9 TDs (1 rush) and a 114 passer rating. The offense is stacked with weapons which has contributed to Ryan's success, WRs Julio Jones and Roddy White are arguably the best 1-2 combo in the NFL (2,255 receiving yards and 16 TDs combined in 2011).
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RB Michael Turner (2,711 rushing yards last 2 seasons) is the power and change of pace back Jacquizz Rodgers (105 combined yards and TD this season) is the speed resulting in solid depth at the position. TE Tony Gonzalez (13,552 career receiving yards) will go into the hall of fame as the best ever at the position. He continues to stand the test of time with 214 yards and 3 TDs so far this season.
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The defense is dynamic and hard hitting and they proved that impressively last week holding the Chargers offense to a mere 3 points. The week prior the defense had Peyton Manning in fits with a chess matchup of schemes that resulted in 4 INTs and 5 turnovers in the first quarter of the game. OLB Stephen Nicholas is probable after being limited in practice with a thigh injury.
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The Falcons offense is ranked 3rd in the NFL scoring 31.3 ppg and the defense is ranked 4th in the NFL giving up 16.0 ppg resulting in a net point differential of +15.3 ppg.
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Carolina opened the regular season with a tough road loss 16-10 to the Buccaneers. In game two they pulled out a 35-27 victory over the winless Saints while last week they look terrible in a 36-7 loss at home to the NYG.
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The Panthers are led by 2011 offensive rookie of the year Cam Newton who grew up just south of downtown Atlanta. Newton was awesome as a rookie moving the ball effictively with his arm and his feet with a combined 4,757 yards and 35 TDs. In 3 starts this season, he has a mere 2 passing TDs against 5 INTs with a QB rating of 78.3.
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RB Jonathan Stewart is expected to play in this game after dealing with a toe injury for most of the season. RB DeAngelo Williams (146 combined yards) has led the charge in Stewart's absence and could put up some yards against a weak Falcons run defense.
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WR Steve Smith has flourished with Newton under center putting up career numbers in 2011 with 1,394 receiving yards. As Newton goes, so does Smith.
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The Carolina defense is ranked 18th against the pass and 24th against the rush for ypg. LBs Jon Beason and Thomas Davis and DE Greg Hardy are all questionable for Sunday.
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The offense is 30th in the league scoring 17.3 ppg while the defense is 24th in the league giving up 26.3 ppg resulting in a net point differential of -9 ppg.
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Newton was benched in the 4th quarter last Sunday and was called out for "sulking" on the bench. He will be in tough to improve his performance against the Falcons. The Falcons won both contests last season 31-17 and 31-23 with Newton posting 2 of his 4 worst passer ratings of the season.
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Vikings at Lions
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The Lions are 14-0 OU after a road loss. Note that the Lions have gone over the total by an average of 18.5 ppg in this situation and this includes last week?s 44-41 loss in Tennessee. Every single one of the 14 games has gone over by at least a TD. Consider the Lions and Vikings OVER.
Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland Raiders +7
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The Raiders enter this division showdown with some momentum after a big upset win over the Steelers. The key to the victory was getting the ground game going. Darren McFadden finished with 113 rushing yards after totaling just 54 in his first two games.
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I like Oakland's chances of running the football on Denver, who was gashed for 152 yards on the ground by Houston. McFadden is averaging 144.7 yards in his last three contests against the Broncos, who will have an even tougher time slowing him down without middle linebacker Joe Mays, who was suspended one game and fined $50,000 fine for a hit on Matt Schaub.
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The team with the most rushing yards has won each of the past seven meetings in this series. The Raiders have come out on top in five of those seven while averaging 196.6 rushing yards per game.
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The Raiders are 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings overall and 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 in Denver. They have won the last 4 in the Mile High City straight up by an average of 17.5 points.
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The Broncos are on an 11-23-2 against the spread slide versus division foes and are only 15-35-2 against the spread in their last 52 home games. Take the points.
Freddy WillsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle Seahawks vs. St Louis Rams
Play: St Louis Rams
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Ironically the Seahawks leave their hostile environment in Seattle and fly east for a hostile environment in St. Louis. Public is loving the Seahawks after Monday’s defensive performance and I think it’s going to be a little different on the road where they are unable to get the same advantages against opposing offensive lines. St. Louis also likes to run a no huddle scheme on offense that will give Seattle fits. The Seahawks do not travel well and are 17-36 -2 ATS int heir last 55 road games.
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Don’t sleep on the Rams defense either as they have one of the best pass rushes led by Chris Long. This leads to turnovers and good pass defense. I think it will lead to the being aggressive to sell out and stop the rushing game from Seattle because Russell Wilson has been kept under wraps thus far. They are not letting him throw and I do not anticipate them doing that here today. It’s not like the Seahawks are dominating on the ground either they averaged just 3.9 ypc on the road to the Rams 4.4 at home last year and this year the two teams are tied at 4.1 ypc. The Rams ran all over the Redskins in a similar home game where they were 3 poitn under dogs.
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Don’t sleep on the Rams, Jeff Fisher is an excellent coach and he’ll have his team ready in this game. Seattle is ranked 22nd allowing 44.7% conversions on third down and St. Louis should be able to stay on the field all day by converting these third downs now that they are home where they converted 58% against a good Redskins defense. While Seattle is 30th in converting third downs and struggle in the red zone ranked 31 with a meager 25% RZ TD%. I expect this game to be either tight throughout or for the Rams to win by multiple touchdowns. Either way unless the Seahawks suddenly let Russell Wilson loose the game plan is pretty easy for the Rams and the Seahawks are in a major let down spot on short rest after they got lucky against the Packers.
Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
Play: Tennessee Titans
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The Titans fit 2 solid system here today. First we want to play on teams off a win that have a 1-2 record in week 4 if they are getting 1.5 or more points. These teams are 44-15 ats. Another system that plays against Houston is to play against week 4 teams that scored 24 or more points in each of their first 3 games if they are off a win are are favored by 7 or more. Had you played against these teams since 1973 you would have cashed 24 of 32 times. The Titans have covered 8 of 10 as a dog of 4 or more vs an opponent that has revenge. Remember the Titans here today. Take the points as the Titans hang in with Houston.
Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chargers/Chiefs UNDER 44.5
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Oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this AFC West rivalry between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers. I fully expect a defensive battle, which is something that has been a common theme between these teams when they get together.
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Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 43 or less combined points. In fact, eight of the last nine meetings have seen 44 or less combined points. These teams know each other inside and out, which makes points harder to come by.
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San Diego is one of the most underrated defensive teams in the league. It ranks 9th in NFL in total defense (305.7 yards/game) and 6th in scoring defense (17.0 points/game). The Chargers' offense gets too much credit because of Philip Rivers. They rank just 23rd in the league in total offense (318.0 yards/game).
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Kansas City did not play well defensively in its first two games, but a lot of that was due to injuries and suspensions. Now healthy, the Chiefs held the Saints to just 24 points and 288 total yards in a 27-24 overtime victory last week. Like San Diego, they also have one of the most underrated defenses in the league.
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The UNDER is 6-0 in Chargers last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. The UNDER is 9-0 in Chiefs last 9 vs. AFC West opponents. The UNDER is 7-1 in Chiefs last 8 home games. Kansas City is 9-1 to the UNDER vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.