Steve JanusFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NY Jets +4.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We find a ton of value on the Jets even with the 49ers surprising loss last week at Minnesota. I don't disagree that San Francisco should be valued in this matchup, but not by more than a field goal. You have to remember that the 49ers will be traveling across the country for this game and that it's an early game.
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In the Jets only home game so far this season, they put on an impressive performance in a 48-28 win over the Bills in week 1. I still think the jury is out on New York after their poor showing in the pre-season, but this is a very good football team and one in my opinion shouldn't be getting 4.5 points at home. San Francisco is just 4-9 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
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This play falls into a profitable situation that has proven it's reliability over the years. Anytime you have a team that is coming off a loss of 10-points or more as a 3.5-10 point favorite, going up against a team that managed to score just 3-points in the first half of their last game, the smart play is on the underdog. It's 117-68 (63%) since 1983!
Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Redskins vs.Buccaneers
Play: Over 47½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The worst two pass defenses in the NFL meet here. Washington has plenty of offensive punch with rookie QB Robert Griffin running Mike Shanahan's roll out attack, but the defense has been the reason for their 1-2 start. The over is 18-8-1 in Redskins last 27 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game and 4-0-1 over in the Redskins last 5 games overall. Tampa Bay is dead last at stopping the pass and the over is 21-7-1 in the Buccaneers last 29 vs. a team with a losing record. Look for more offense than oddsmakers expect; Play the Redskins/Buccs over the total.
Sean HiggsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs
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KC 10-4-1 ATS last 15 in the series. Why are we getting points at home? Chargers beat an Oakland team that I think is terrible. They beat a rookie QB led Tennessee team. And they welcome the Falcons in fresh off a big MNF win and a cross-country flight only to get demolished at home.. Will gladly take any points here as I see this as a false-fave situation.
King CreoleFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St Louis Rams +3
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In any normal situation, playing ON a team off a Monday night game has produced more ATS losers than winners. For a team like Seattle, one must also factor in the wild and wacky finish in their come-from-behind Monday HOME win against the Green Bay Packers. And just how much that LATE comeback took out of them. Not to mention the reduced week of recuperation and preparation, and a flight across half of the country. It leaves us (AND our database) very wary of laying points on the road. After all, they were tabbed as home DOGGIES in each of their last two games. So it appears that this team with the NFL's 30th-ranked offense is perceived to be a little stronger than the they really are.
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So let's look at those post-Monday ATS tendencies in our database.
0-6 ATS last 4 years: All GAME 5 or less favorites (Seahawks) playing off a Monday home game.
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Seattle was an underdog of +3 points in that Monday game...
1-9 ATS since 2005: All GAME NINE or less division road favorites (Seahawks) playing off a SU non-division home dog win.
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In fact, not only are the Seahawks playing off a home underdog win.... but they were home doggies in EACH of their last two home games (Beat the Pack and the Boys).
0-5 ATS since 2003: All NFC teams playing off back-to-back home UNDERDOGS wins (Seattle).
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The Rams went into Chicago last week and laid an egg (lost 23-6 to the Bears).
9-1 AT since 2996: All GAME SEVEN or less division home underdogs (RAMS) who scored 6 < points in their previous game.
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Up next for St Louis is a THURSDAY division home game vs the Arizona Cardinals.
9-1 ATS since 2006: All underdogs playing off a SU double-digit loss (RAMS) before playing a THURSDAY division home game.
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In this NFC WEST division, it's been ALL about the HOME team... when they're catching points
LAST season, NFC WEST division home UNDERDOGS (RAMS) went a PERFECT 6-0 ATS. In the last 4 seasons, these teams have gone 6-1 ATS in GAME 8 or less...
NFL GOW - New England Patriots -4 *5 units
Free Plays
Seattle Seahawks -3 *3 units
New Orleans +7.5 *3 units
NFL Upset GOW - NY Giants +115
- Fo Bros
Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Nationals vs. Cardinals
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The Nationals need just one more win to clinch the National League East. They wrap up their series in St. Louis with the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. Ross Detwiler goes for Washington and he's 9-7 with a 3.45 ERA. Detwiler is not as solid on the road going 2-5 with a 4.36 ERA in 12 starts. He lost in Philadelphia after giving up 5 runs and five hits in five innings. He'll face a Cardinals team that tattoos lefties scoring 5.6 runs per game while hitting .286 against them. St. Louis is hitting over .280 at home and they’ve put up double digit hits in four of their last seven games while registering nine hits in two of the other games over that span.
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Lance Lynn is 16-5 with a 3.57 ERA in 28 starts for the Cardinals. He is making his first career start against the Nationals who are smacking the ball around themselves. Washington is hitting almost .280 in their last eight games while putting up over 6 runs per game. Washington has gone Over the total in seven of their last eight games; they pushed the total in the eighth game. The Cardinals’ bullpen picked up their 27th loss as a unit on Saturday to go along with 22 blown saves. These two teams have played five Overs in six meetings this season and we expect that trend to continue on Sunday afternoon.
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Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos
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The Peyton Manning era hasn’t gotten off to the best of starts in the Mile High city. After three games, the Broncos are sporting a 1-2 SU record and resting in a tie for last in the AFC West division. That’s not good enough for Manning and definitely not going to sit well with Denver Vice President of Football Operations John Elway either.
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Oakland makes the trek to the mountains off its upset home win over Pittsburgh. The Silver and Black bring with them a solid defensive front seven and a running game that can flat out get the job done. As tempting as it might look to side with the Raiders plus the points in this contest, I’ll look the other way. Denver’s hopes of winning a division title would take a serious hit if it were to lose this game and, even without the services of linebacker Joe Mays, the Orange Crush will rally the troops and respond to this challenge.
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If you want to fade the Raiders, the time to do it is when they’re nice and fat coming off a straight up win. Oakland owns a dismal 11-33 SU and 16-28 ATS after adding a victory to the win column including a jaw-dropping 4-17 ATS in this set priced as a dog between +1.5 and +8. Equally bad, when knocking helmets with a foe that arrives off a straight up loss, the Silver and Black have struggled posting a stiff 26-49 SU and 26-48-1 ATS mark including a woeful 7-26-1 ATS in this set if their foe battled in the comforts of home last.
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It is noted that the Orange Crush are a weak 15-35-2 ATS in their last 52 home games. However, the history book shows that Denver has battled back and played well at home checking off a straight up home loss notching a juicy 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS record. In this role coming off a blemish of four points or more, the Broncos improve to a nearly perfect 12-1 SU and ATS!
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The Raiders have posted a 4-1 SU and ATS record in the last five meetings in this series. With Manning lined up behind center for the Broncos, that recent trend will change rather quickly. Take Denver.
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New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
Pick: Buffalo Bills
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Seems as though few believe the Patriots are capable of losing three in a row. My numbers say they might just do exactly that. I have today's game virtually dead even, and that makes the Bills plus the points the side.
Charlie ScottFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Jets
Play: San Francisco 49ers
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Got lucky last week with a Best Bet Winner Playing on the Jets, now it's time to play against them. Look for a motivated Niner Team to show up, off a lackluster loss @ Minn last week. The Niners spent the past week training camp style, staying in a Youngstown st dorm. Expect the Niners aggressive defense to beat up an already punchy Jet QB Sanchez. The Jets weak OL will be exploited Today. NY radio personality Mike Francessa has stated several times over the Years that Rex Ryans defense struggles vs mobile QB's and good TE's and he's right ! The Niners have both !
Bill Milton
Cincinnati (-) over Jacksonville
Andy Dalton has passed for 275 and 385 yards in his last two games, and last week at Washington the Bengals had a dominant 478-381 yardage edge in a win at Washington. Here they are taking on a team less talented than the Redskins, one that allowed Andrew Luck to pass for over 300 yards last week, and note that while the Jags did get the win in that game they were VERY fortunate to do so, as the Colts led late before Jacksonville got a long TD to get the win. Jags do not have a huge home edge either, as they struggle to put seats in the stands, especially against a less than marquee team. We will lay the small number in this one.
Andre Gomes
Seattle / St Louis Under 39
Games between the Seahawks and the Rams are generally low scoring affairs and this game should keep this tradition pretty much alive. Seattle is playing very well on this early season, but this has been achieved via a very conservative playbook, where QB Russell Wilson doesn't take any kind of risks, leaving RB Marshawn Lynch the responsibility to carry the team's offense. This is resulting in a solid but very unspectacular offensive production for Seattle, something that has been compensated extremely well due to a great defense that is playing like a top defensive team in the league right now. Now against the Rams offense that is clearly compromised due to an OL that can't protect Sam Bradford at all and with RB Steven Jackson nursing a groin injury, I expect Seattle's top quality defense to keep the Rams offensive production to a minimum today.
On the other side, as I've said, the Seahawks play on a very conservative playbook, therefore it is unlikely to see them having huge offensive plays on their games. The Rams' defense seems improved from last year under Jeff Fischer's guidance and with the Seahawks' passing game not being a danger, I expect the Rams to focus on stopping the Seahawks running game and being at least a bit successful in doing that.
With Seattle's great defense stopping the Rams' poor offense and with St Louis also having a defense decent enough to prevent the conservative Seahawks to have a great offensive game today, I believe this game will end up being a low scoring affair, with both teams playing a rather conservative football and without a lot of big plays. Therefore, I see value on the Under on this contest, even with this low totals line and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Matt Rivers
27-13 free play run with a Saturday sweep on Northern Illinois and South Carolina.
Sunday's free play is to back the undefeated Cardinals at home against the Dolphins.'
Miami should have won their game last week at home against the Jets, and I have a strong inkling they will still be stewing over that loss when they take the field in Glendale this afternoon.
Miami's only other road foray was Week One when rookie signal-caller Ryan Tannehill was intercepted three times by the Houston Texans in a 30-10 loss at Reliant Stadium. Arizona's defense has been every bit as tough as Houston's, so expect the rookie to add to his interception total after this game goes final.
Arizona is off to a 3-0 start both straight up and against the spread, and today will be their first try installed as the favorite. The role did not bother them last season, as Ken Whisenhunt's team went 3-1 in that role at home last year, and the Cards have covered 10 of their last 13 overall dating back to last year while also going 10-2 straight up their last dozen games contested.
Miami has been a tough out in the "road underdog" role the past few seasons, but a rookie QB on the road against a defense this tough is a disaster waiting to happen.
Take Arizona.
4♦ ARIZONA
Jeff Benton
7-1 free play run heading into Sunday thanks to Northwestern covering on Saturday against Indiana.
Your Sunday freebie is the Over in the Saints-Packers contest.
Much has changed since these teams opened the 2011 season in the Big Easy and combined for a whopping 76 points.
As we all know, New Orleans is still in search of their first win, while Green Bay is coming off that horrific non-call on Monday night in their loss to Seattle. Both teams should be eager to strap it on today. and you can surely assume that they will be trading points rapidly as well.
The New Orleans defense is allowing 34 points per game, so after facing the rugged defenses of San Francisco, Chicago and Seattle, look for Aaron Rodgers to finally get his discount double-check working in this one!
Drew Brees has been able to get his team points - 83 of them in fact through three games - and while the Packers defense has been stingy their last two times out, they did allow San Francisco to come up with 30 points that first week of the year.
The Saints have played Over the total in 14 of their last 22, while the Packers are on a 14-6 Over run of their own since last year.
Take the Over to come through in this New Orleans-Green Bay meeting.
4♦ NEW ORLEANS-GREEN BAY OVER
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the New Orleans Saints to cover the number against Green Bay. The Packers won last season's meeting 42-34 in one of the more exciting season openers in a while. Drew Brees threw for 419 yards while Aaron Rodgers completed 27 of 35 passes for 312 yards and a couple of touchdowns.
The time before that the Saints blasted the Packers, 51-29, in a game that Drew Brees threw for 323 yards and four TDs. I think it's safe to say both QBs should have good games today, but despite what's happened to the Saints through three games, I still don't believe they should be getting this many points.
I can't tell you how many times this week I've heard someone say, "I'd hate to be Green Bay's next opponent after they got screwed Monday night." The more I hear it, the more I want to go the other way. Sure, they may be seething after that horrible call in the end zone vs. Seattle, but that's not going to make them play any better today, is it?
Are the Saints to blame that the replacement officials sucked? Does Green Bay all-of-a-sudden become more motivated to win because they were dealt a bad hand Monday night? Absolutely not. They will play the same way they would if they'd won that Monday night game. Thinking otherwise is foolishness.
The Saints, on the other hand, are also mad at the league... but for a different reason. But that reason, the pre-season suspensions, has been an excuse too long. Saints players say they are sick and tired of using that as a crutch, and starting this week things will be different. No more blame; no more excuses.
The Saints ranked sixth in the league with 132.9 rushing yards per game last season, which was a big reason for Brees's success... they were more balanced. So far this year, New Orleans is averaging only 92.7 rushing yards per game... good for 22nd in the league.
Having said that, they're still averaging 27.7 points and get ready to face a defense that still hasn't figured itself out. And not only has the defense not figured itself out, but what about Aaron Rodgers. The former league MVP had 45 TD passes a year ago, but finds himself at 3 after 3 games. Yikes.
I have no doubt both teams will play as well as they can, but seven points is just too many. Take the Saints as your free play of the day.
2♦ NEW ORLEANS
Wunderdog
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh +130
Cincinnati is favored again here, but this team has already clinched and is playing like it at 2-2 the last four games scoring a total of 5 runs in four games! They were favored in all four games, too. This is the third road game of a season ending a six game trip for the Reds and despite heading to the postseason this is not a great offensive team, ranked 21st in runs scored and 18th in on-base percentage. Cincy goes with Johnny Cueto, but watch him carefully as his last game Cueto's left hamstring tightened as he ran the bases in the second inning, but he stayed in the game. You can't risk an arm like his in a meaningless game with the playoffs on the horizon. In addition, Cueto began this month 0-3 with an 8.22 ERA in his first three starts of September topping the 200 innings pitched mark for the 26-year old. Pittsburgh is off a win yesterday as a home dog and goes with Wandy Rodriguez (12-13, 3.79 ERA), an above average pitcher who is 2-0 his last three starts and in his last seven starts he's gone 4-1 with a 2.98 ERA over that stretch while racking up 28 strikeouts. Play the Pirates.