OC Dooley
Redskins +2
Due to their intense rookie head coach who has received criticism for being too aggressive when opponents line up in “victory” formation, host Tampa Bay enters today’s contest undefeated (3-0 ATS) where it counts. But not only are the Buccaneers being asked by the oddsmakers to lay points this afternoon, they are seemingly facing the wrong opponent. There was much excitement last Sunday when the Redskins played their regular season home opener officially unveiling heavy-hyped quarterback Robert Griffin III in front of the faithful fans. But a long term pattern held up as Washington ended up losing outright at home for a SEVENTH consecutive time. Thus one can argue that this team is actually better off playing on the road where late today a banged-up defense that has yielded a whopping 442 yards per game seemingly will be catching a break. That Redskins stop-unit goes up against a Bucs attack which is averaging a league LOW 258 yards per contest. Quarterback Josh Freeman has the worst completion percentage (51.3) in the entire NFL. My research indicates that the Redskins have COVERED NINE IN A ROW when up against an excellent rush defense who allowed on average less than 71 ground yards per game. Here is a whopping “22-4” SYSTEM (85% the past decade with a money line between +3/-3) which plays ON road teams like Washington with a terrible defense yielding at least 360 totals yards per contest, after permitting at least 400 total yards in three consecutive contests
Bryan Leonard
San Francisco / San Diego Under 7.5
Tim Lincecum heads to the hill for the Giants, looking to gain some momentum before the postseason. Lincecum has been outstanding in his career against the Padres, with a 2.28 ERA in 21 career starts. Over those 138 innings, the Padres have hit just .207 against the unorthodox right hander. In 10 career starts at Petco Park, Lincecum has a 2.15 ERA. Lincecum wants to make amends for his mediocre regular season by being a force in the playoffs and the first step on that path is to end the season strong. Edinson Volquez takes the mound for the Padres, looking to finish his first season with the Padres on a high note. Volquez, the former Cincinnati Red who had to endure the hitter-friendly conditions of Great American Ball Park, has really enjoyed pitching at Petco Park, going 6-5 with a 2.89 ERA in 16 starts. With two fairly inconsistent offenses and two pitchers who are comfortable in the Petco Park environment, this has the makings of a low-scoring affair. Home plate umpire Gary Cederstrom is a pretty neutral umpire as it pertains to totals, so he should let the pitchers do the work here.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
San Francisco -3.5 Over NY JETS: In watching the Jets offense these days it is obvious that they have no identity and really don't know how to use Tebow in their offense. They look lost at times out there with him in there and I feel it has been more of a distraction for this team than anything else. The Jets are not a good offense to begin with so they don't need the distractions. Now they get to take on one of the best defenses in the league and a San Fran team that is very angry after laying an egg in Minnesota last week. The Jets last week vs Miami were outgained by 100 yards on the ground and now they must contend with this power running game of of the Niners. The Niners run game will then set up some easy passes and that is not good news for the Jets who will are without Revis for the rest of the year. New York is really in disarray right now and I just don't see them coming up with a good enough effort to stay close in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Arizona/ Miami Under 39: This Arizona defense has been special in the early going as they have held teams to just 316 ypg and 11.4 ppg. Their run defense is key here and this front 7 has been solid, allowing just 106 ypg on 3.9 ypc. Miami is a run first offense as they have put up 175 ypg on the ground and with all that running they will eat plenty of clock here. I expect the Cardinals to try and take the run away and that will force rookie QB to make the kind of plays that he's just not ready to make of yet. On offense the Cardinals have not really been a down the field kind of offense. They come in averaging just 263 ypg on a mere 4.5 yards per play, while scoring just 22.3 ppg. This is not a team that will score quickly or take too many chances as they know that with the defense they have they can just play the field position game. Dating back to the preaseason Miami has had troubles scoring and it will not get much better in the desert today, while Arizona's own offense will not get much vs a an underrated Miami defense. KEY TREND--- The Under is 11-2 in Miami's last 13 road games vs the NFC.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
San Diego -1.5 over KANSAS CITY: I like the Bolts in this one, mainly due to their defense, which is far better than that of the Chiefs. Kansas City is 16th in total defense (347 ypg allowed), but 28th in points allowed (33 ppg). Not very good at all. The Chargers offense has been held in check in 2 of their three games, but this team has way too much offensive talent to be kept down for too long. Ryan Mathews will be making his second start of the year and he will only get better in the coming weeks. For Kansas City, they are all about running the ball as they are tops in that department at 191.7 ypg, but year in and year out the Chargers have been stout at stopping the run, allowing just 67.3 ypg (4th in league). The Chargers defense is much better than the Chiefs and they will make Cassel beat them, which is something that he isn’t accustomed to be asked to do. The Chargers offense will only be better now that Mathews has a game under his belt. San Diego bounces back from last week’s tough loss. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play against home teams if the line is +3 to -3 if they are off 1 or more Unders in a row and allow at least 14 ppg in the first half of games this year. Teams in this spot are just 3-22 ATS the last 5 seasons.
New England -3.5 over BUFFALO: 2002 was the last time the Pats lost 3 games in a row and I don't expect them to here in this one. Even at 1-2 the Pats are still a very good team and still are the favorites to win the AFC East. Questions about the Pats offense were answered last week when they put up 30 points on a very good Baltimore defense. The Pats passing game was in high gear and will be taking on a weak Buffalo pass defense that has allowed 248 ypg through the air thus far. The Pats can be thrown on, but Buffalo is all about the run and the Pats have allowed just 82 ypg on the ground so far this year. Buffalo has looked good the last two weeks, but that was vs weak competition and remember that they did allow a weak Jets offense to put up 48 on them in week 1. New England is off a tough loss last week and they are a very angry bunch just looking to take their frustrations out on someone. Sorry Buffalo, but you will be the sacrificial lamb in this one.