Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 4,2011

Marc Lawrence

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

When the Cubs close out their three game series with the Pirates at Wrigley Field Sunday afternoon Chicago will send Randy Wells to the mound against Charlie Morton knowing Wells is in solid current form with a 4-0 mark and a 2.28 ERA in his last four team starts. Meanwhile, Morton enters 0-2 with an 8.45 ERA in his last two starts sporting a 1-5 mark in his last six team starts during the month of September, and a 5.68 career team start mark against the Cubs. That tells us all we need to know about which way we're going here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Cubs.

SPORTS WAGERS

SMU +16 over Texas A&M

June Jones inherited a WAC team that was 0-12 the previous season and took it to the Sugar Bowl in nine years. Pretty sporty. Think he can't do the same at a former Southwest Conference power that's sitting in the middle of one of the nation's most fertile recruiting areas? This season, Jones' fourth is the crest of his regime's first wave. SMU won the Conference USA West Division last year and this season returns 18 starters, including a quarterback in his third year as a starter, a 1,500-yard rusher and an all-senior offensive line with 158 career starts. The 18 also includes all-conference-caliber production and established leadership in every defensive position group. This SMU outfit has been four years in the making, and this season the Mustangs are the best team in Conference USA. The Ponies hung with another former SWC rival, Texas Tech, last season, and will be in the game again this year with a good shot at beating an A&M bunch that's been reading an awful lot about itself in the papers this August. The Aggies will probably win it, but it'll be scary close. Play: #209 SMU +16 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Sam Martin

Marshall at West Virginia
Play: Over

West Virginia unveils their new offense today with Dana Holgorsen taking over as the offensive coordinator (will become head coach next season), and he comes from the up-tempo offensive style of football from his days at Oklahoma State, Houston, and Texas Tech. That means more plays run from scrimmage for both teams, as Marshall will have to pass more to keep up, and we look for this game to go well over the posted total

Vegas Experts

LA Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
Play on: LA Dodgers

It may be a case of "too little, too late" for the surging Dodgers, but they come into today having won 11 of their last 12, including a season high six straight. They'll have Clay Kershaw on the mound looking to improve to 10-1 last 11 starts, including a 0.39 ERA L3. Los Angeles is now 6-1 vs. Atlanta this season and the Dodgers offense has come alive of late, averaging nearly 5.5 runs per game the last seven days. Atlanta averages only 3.8 runs per game vs. lefties.

Rob Vinciletti

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers fit a 17-4 system that plays on certain road favorites off a road favored win by 5 or more runs with 5 or more men left on base, vs an opponent off a home dog loss and scored 2 or less runs with 5+ men left on base. The Brewers are 3-1 this season going for a road sweep and the Astros have lost 4 of the past 5 times when trying to avoid a home sweep. The Brewers have won 11 of the 14 games this season between these two teams and they are 30-7 vs losing teams in the second half. The Astros are 4-18 on Sundays. Wandy Rodriguez makes the start for Houston and he has lost 6 of his 8 day starts. Marcum for Milwaukee has a solid 2.50 road era and 1.35 over his last 3 starts. Look for the Brewers to bring out the brooms and sweep the Astros again this season. Take Milwaukee.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -152

Milwaukee has bounced back from getting swept by St. Louis to post back-to-back 8-2 victories over the Astros. The Brewers have won 8 in a row against the 'stros and 5 straight at Houston. Milwaukee struggled on the road for much of the season but has put those struggles behind by winning 12 of its last 15 away from Miller Park. It will have an excellent opportunity to keep rolling on the road with Marcum on the hill. He's a rock solid 6-3 with a 2.50 ERA in road starts this season. In his only start at Houston, which came earlier this year, Marcum allowed no run on just 3 hits in a 5-0 victory.

EZWINNERS

Marshall Thundering Herd +23

The Marshall program should to continue to improve under second year head coach John Holliday. The Herd is fully stocked in the skill positions thanks to a topflight freshman class that ranks as the best recruiting class in Conference USA over the past two season. Marshall's offense should be able to put some points on the board against the Mountaineer defense. West Virginia lost seven players from last years team to the NFL, including their star running back Noel Devine. The West Virginia defense is very young and many of the players will be seeing their first real game time in the 3-3-5 that the Mountaineers run. On offense the West Virginia attack will be facing and experienced Marshall defense that returns nine starters from last years unit that allowed less than twenty points per game in the final five games of last season. This should all add up to a Marshall cover. Take the points.

Steve Janus

Chicago Cubs -130

I look for the Cubs to salvage a win after losing the first two games of their series against the Pirates. Chicago will start Randy Wells agianst Charlie Morton.

Morton has the better ERA at 3.74 compared to Wells 5.06 ERA, but these two pitchers have been on opposite paths of late. Wells is 2-0 with a 1.99 ERA in his last three starts, while Morton is 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA in his last three.

Pittsburgh is 7-24 in Mortons last 31 road starts, 2-11 in their last 13 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, and 37-79 in their last 116 during game 3 of a series. BET THE CUBS!

BANG THE BOOK

Marshall Thundering Herd at West Virginia Mountaineers (-23.5, 52)

The Marshall Thundering Herd let one slip away last season when they lost to West Virginia 24-21 in overtime. Marshall led 21-6 with 14 minutes left in the game, but the Mountaineers rallied to force overtime and then they went on to win. This intrastate rivalry is always a fierce contest, but I suspect Marshall will be a little extra motivated for this one. West Virginia has dominated the series (5-0 in the last 5 years) between these two, and the Mountaineers have high aspirations for this season.

Marshall was once one of the best mid-major teams in the country, but they have fallen on hard times of late. Doc Holliday is trying to turn the team back into an annual contender, but last year’s 5-7 season was a difficult one. Marshall had the worst offense in Conference USA last year. The Thundering Herd averaged just 20.8 points per game, despite playing against some very weak defenses. The quarterback position is a huge question mark this year, but the running game is the single biggest problem for this team. Martin Ward was the team’s leading rusher last year, and he only had 345 yards all season. That is a truly amazing statistic that speaks volumes as to how bad this offensive line and the running game were last year. Marshall counted on the defense to keep them in the game last year, and I expect that to be the case again this season. The Thundering Herd have a terrific defensive line, led by Vinnie Curry. In addition, Omar Brown and DJ Hunter should help give Marshall a solid secondary. The defense will definitely miss Mario Harvey’s presence, but they should be pretty good again this season.

Dana Holgorsen takes over the head coaching job at West Virginia this year. Holgorsen is known as a brilliant offensive mind, and that is exactly what West Virginia needs right now. The Mountaineers have had a tremendous defense the last few years, but they have been lacking the offensive firepower needed to be a top notch team. Geno Smith improved as the season went along last year, and I expect him to be much better in this offense. Noel Devine is no longer with West Virginia, but they have a couple good youngsters in Shawne Alston and Andrew Buie. Tavon Austin is a great play maker at wide receiver, and you can bet that Holgorsen will do his best to get him the ball often. West Virginia’s defense lost a lot of talent, but they have ranked in the top 11 in the nation in total defense in three of the last four years. The Mountaineers will likely be worse against the run in 2011, but Keith Tandy and the rest of the secondary should be solid once again this season.

I think West Virginia will improve quite a bit offensively this year, but I don’t understand the line being at 23 in this one. Marshall has covered the last two years against the Mountaineers, and I think they will again this season.

PICK: Marshall Thundering Herd +23

SMU Mustangs at Texas A&M Aggies (-16, 56.5)

Two up and coming programs in the Lone Star State will duke it out in NCAA football betting action on Sunday in a crucial clash, as the Texas A&M Aggies will host the SMU Mustangs.

Head Coach June Jones has really turned SMU into a legitimate program for the first time since the days of the death penalty that crippled the school. QB Kyle Padron has rounded into one of the best quarterbacks that the state of Texas has to offer (which is really saying something), and he is going to hope to use his experience to lead a fantastic run and shoot offense this year. SMU averaged 415.9 yards per game last season en route to its loss in the Conference USA Championship Game against the UCF Knights, and better is expected this year. Watch out for RB Zach Line as well. Even though he isn’t going to be featured for all that many carries relatively speaking, he’s a force by the goal line, where he accounted for 10 TDs last year. He also averaged 6.1 yards per carry, certainly a number that isn’t worth slouching about. Think SMU has a bone to pick with the Aggies? The last time that they played against them, the Mustangs were blown away 66-7. If SMU really wants to get into the Big XII, this is the type of game that it at least has to stay competitive in.

Head Coach Mike Sherman has the No. 9 ranked team in the nation this year after last season’s thrilling run through the end of the Big XII campaign. The offense did score plenty of points with QB Jerrod Johnson running the show, but the team responded a heck of a lot better to QB Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill has emerged now as a dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate after throwing for 1,638 yards and 13 TDs against six picks last season. He’s got some help in the backfield in the form of RB Cyrus Gray and RB Christine Michael, both of which battled injuries last season. WRs Jeff Fuller and Ryan Swope are fantastic, and both should be big assets in the passing game. The question for A&M is whether or not it has a defense worthy enough of a Top 10 ranking in the country. We guess not. Though the team did play well down the stretch, it allowed 41 to the LSU Tigers in the Cotton Bowl and had several other dud games to boot. This is a dangerous fixture against a team that does have the ability of scoring points in bunches.

SMU Mustangs @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: This is a case where SMU has everything to gain and absolutely nothing to lose. The Aggies played well down the stretch last season, but it’s not good enough to make us believe that they are good enough to cover more than two TDs on the NCAA football odds against a team that has the ability to win 10 games this season.

PICK: SMU Mustangs +16

SPORTS WAGERS

Los Angeles –1 –104 over ATLANTA

Just in case you needed more incentive to wager on Clayton Kershaw against the Braves, Atlanta ranks in the bottom third of most offensive splits, and they are especially weak against lefties with a .646 OPS (29th in MLB). Kershaw might be the best pitcher in all of baseball and the scariest thing about him is that at age 23, he’s getting better with every start. In 199 IP, he’s walked 50 and whiffed 212. In 2010, Kershaw was one of just four National League starters with 200+ strikeouts and an ERA under 3.00 and this year his ERA is likely going to be under 2.50. He’s in a class that few pitchers ever reach and the Dodgers are scorching hot with six wins in a row and 13 wins in its last 16 games. Randall Delgado is a tall and athletic pitcher with solid arm action that gives him outstanding movement to his 92-96 mph fastball and plus curveball. His high 3/4 slot allows him to pitch on a downhill plane. Additionally, he repeats the arm speed on his change-up, which makes it a deceptive offering at times. Delgado has the tendency to overthrow, which has led to control and command issues. Failure to repeat his delivery leaves him with below average command, but he has significantly high upside if he can put everything together. In a crucial game with a lot of pressure on him, it’s unlikely he’ll put it all together. Give him time but for now, laying less than a nickel on Kershaw and the red-hot Dodgers is the way to go. Play: Los Angeles –1 –104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

Arizona +112 over SAN FRANCISCO

Prior to this season only baseball diehard fans knew who Ryan Vogelsong was. The guy is 33-years-old and tolled around in the minors for years. He did start 26 games way back in ’04 but posted an ERA of 6.50 that season and would not make another start in the majors until seven years later when the Giants took a chance on him this season. If anyone suggested that Vogelsong would go on to post a better ERA in 23 starts than Matt Cain, C.C. Sabathia, Zack Greinke, Tim Hudson, Jon Lester and tons more, that person would have been deemed nuts. His ERA this season is 2.63 and he is without doubt the surprise story of the year. However, he’s reverting back to his old form and it’s a great time to bet against him. The Giants have lost four of his last five starts and those losses came against Pittsburgh, Houston, not once but twice and the Cubbies. Over his last three starts, Vogelsong’s walks are way up and his k’s are way down and that’s a sure sign that a guy is tiring. Additionally, the Giants offense is non-existent and it’s even worse at home. Daniel Hudson has elite control (40 BB in 187 IP) and a good strikeout rate. He’s been consistent all season and he almost always gives the Snakes a chance to win. It's been over a year since the Diamondbacks acquired Hudson in a trade with the White Sox. Since then, the talented right-hander has quickly ascended to become the club's ace and a big part of the reason they're going to win the NL West. The D-Backs continue to win and the Giants continue to not score runs. Play: Arizona +112 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

SASKATCHEWAN +3 over Winnipeg

Most places have the Bombers favored by 2½ but at SportsInteraction we see a +3 and we’ll go with that. If you can’t get +3, then take the Riders on the ML at +134 at Pinnacle. The Bombers appear to be the right play, as they’re 7-1 while SASK is 1-7. Looks like a no-brainer when in fact it is not. The Bombers are flying too high and they’ll come back down to earth any time now. They pulled out a last minute win a week ago in Hamilton and that intensity level is simply impossible to sustain over 18 weeks of football. Winnipeg’s only loss this year was by a single point so this team has not had a shaky or bad outing yet. It’s inevitable that they do and this week sets up beautifully for that to happen after Winnipeg’s emotional and intense win over the TiCats last week. The Roughies are winless at home, which is hard to believe because Mosaic Stadium has truly been the 12th man over the years. Saskatchewan is not as bad as its 1-7 record indicates and as a result they got a new head coach and a new offensive coordinator this week. That should fire them up as much as their awful record. Last week in Toronto, everything went against the Riders and that’s an understatement. Had everything been equal they would have blown out the Argos so pay no attention to that misleading loss. Despite every call going against them, they rallied from a 21-1 fourth quarter deficit and were about 20 yards away from winning it. That final quarter gives the Roughriders momentum heading into this game. Again, Saskatchewan is not as bad as its record and Winnipeg isn’t as good as theirs. If they were, this line would be somewhere around Winnipeg –7 because that’s what you usually get when 1-7 meets 7-1. But it’s not and that tells us that the Bombers are ready to throw a stinker or that Saskatchewan is ready to come up big and this really looks like the day that one or both of those things happen. Play: Saskatchewan +3 (Risking 2.1 units to win 1).

Jack Jones

San Francisco Giants -116

We are getting the San Francisco Giants at an absolute discount today as just a small home favorite.

Ryan Vogelson is having a tremendous season, going 10-5 with a 2.72 ERA in 23 starts. He has been untouchable at home, going 6-4 with a 2.27 ERA in 13 starts.

This is a huge game for the Giants as they try to gain ground on the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West. It's their most important game of the season and as a result, they will be highly motivated. That's especially the case after losing to Arizona yesterday.

The Diamondbacks are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants are 7-1 in Vogelsong's last 8 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. San Francisco is 58-26 in their last 84 home meetings with Arizona. Take the Giants Sunday.

David Banks

SMU / Texas A&M Over

A good ‘ol fashioned in-state slobber knocker is slated to go Sunday night from College Station where the 8th ranked Texas A&M Aggies will welcome in the CUSA rep SMU Mustangs; kick-off from Kyle Field is slated for 7:30 ET.

This season marks the 4th year of the June Jones regime in Dallas, and after taking a step backwards record wise in 2010, the Ponies look primed for a solid campaign within CUSA. Up first though is an enormous litmus test with an Aggies squad that many believe possesses the goods to compete with Oklahoma for the Big 12 title. SMU returns 18 starters from last year’s squad that posted a 7-7 record after falling to Army in the Armed Forced Bowl (16-14). QB Kyle Padron, fresh off throwing for nearly 3850 yards and 31 TDs is back as ring leader of an offense that scored an average of 25.7 PPG.

Last year was a tale of two halves for the Aggies. It started off great with solid wins the first three weeks, but then HC Mike Sherman’s squad dropped each of their next three to OK-State, Arkansas and Mizzou which prompted the coaching staff to make a change at the QB position. After benching Jerrod Johnson, current QB1 Ryan Tannehill led the Aggies to six straight wins which sent A&M to the Cotton Bowl for the first time since 2004. A total of 18 starters return, and though the defense loses stud LB Von Miller, the offense sports a couple of enormous playmakers in WR Jeff Fuller and RB Cyrus Gray.

It’s been quite some time since these squads opposed one another, as six years have passed. In that match-up back in 2005, Texas A&M served up a good old fashioned woodshed beating downing SMU 66-8 as four-TD home favorites. A&M has won each of the L/6 meetings by an average of 33 PPG. Though it hasn’t been able to win many of the games outright (4-8 SU), the Mustangs stand a $$$-making 9-3 ATS the L/12 times they took the field in the underdog role. The Aggies have won 22 of their L/23 home openers. They’re a perfect 6-0 ATS versus the L/6 CUSA opponents faced, and a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS when favored in the 10.5 to 21-point range the L/3 seasons.

Michael Alexander

Arizona D-Backs vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants

ARIZONA is 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record

SAN FRANCISCO is 8-3 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game

SAN FRANCISCO is 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series