Marc Lawrence
lorida Marlins at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Florida Marlins
The Marlins conclude their three game visit against the Nationals when they send Anibel Sanchez to the mound against J.D. Martin in the nation's capitol this afternoon. Sanchez checks in with a nice 3.67 ERA In his three starts since being recalled from New Orleans a month ago. He's also 5-2 in his career team starts in this series. Meanwhile, Martin has dropped two of his last three team starts with a 4.64 ERA along the way. Look for Florida to continue its mastery over Washington in this series (15-5 last 20 games) here today.
Doc's Sports
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Take Memphis +16.5 over Mississippi
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The Rebels are getting a lot of pub this season and many experts have them winning the SEC West. They have a top notch quarterback in Jevan Snead, but I wonder if they are good enough to lay this much wood on the road against a team that is only 85 miles away from there campus. Ole Miss was just 9-4 last year and four of their five road games were decided by four points or less. Memphis is bad, but they lost by just 17 points last season in Oxford and I suspect this will be a much closer game then what the experts believe. Doc’s Sports has a strong card going to open up college football, jump on the victory train now!
Vernon Croy
Florida Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Florida Marlins
The Marlins are the superior overall team here Sunday afternoon and they are 5-1 in Anibal Sanchez's (2-6, 5.01 ERA) last 6 starts against the Nationals. Sanchez pitched well in his last three starts off of the disabled list and I look for him to have another good start against this Nationals line-up. The Marlins were 11-4 in their last 15 games played in Washington before Saturday's outcome and the Nationals are just 0-7 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Florida Marlins as my MLB Free Play for Sunday night.
Craig Trapp
Colorado State vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado -10:
This rivalry takes center stage on Sunday Night! Dan Hawkins needs a win as he is supposedly on the hot seat. Well this is going to be a huge day as he will light up the scoreboard. His son and starting QB Cody Hawkins will play great and get a ton of help from one of the best RB's in CFB Darrell Scott. The offensive line will be solid and open up a ton of run lanes for Scott to dance thru.
On the other side COL ST is coming off a bowl win. But this team loses there QB and top two RB's from last year. If that was not enough they lose half there defensive starters. Athletically they will be up against it in Boulder tonight. A tough place to have to break in a new QB and two new O Lineman. Defense was not great last year so losing a bunch of starters might really spell trouble.
10 Pts is a ton for a rivalry game but after the initial emotions wears off the COL athletes will take over and pull away late. SCORE COL 33 - COLST 17
Rob Vinciletti
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles
Home dogs off a a 1 run win scoring 5 or more runs on 5+ hits are over .500, if they are taking on a road team off a a 1 run loss as a road favorite and scored 4 or less runs. Over the last 5 years these home dogs have produced a nice little profit. Baltimore has righty J.Guthrie going today. While he has been subpar this year he has been real good of late. He has a 1.80 era, only allowing 4 runs in his last 20 innings. Texas has lefty Holland going today and he has been awful over his last 3 starts with a 10.68 era. He has allowed 16 runs in 9 innings over his last two outings. Look for Baltimore to get the rubber game of this series today. On the late phone front I have a big 85% College football, opening week system play on Sunday.
Jimmy the Moose
Florida Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
The over is a profitable 23-8-1 in the Marlins last 32 games overall. The over is 19-4 in their last 23 games as a favorite. In their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record the over is 5-0. The over is 14-5-1 in Florida's last 20 divisional games. The over is 4-1 in Sanchez's last 5 starts as a favorite. Washington has played over the total in 5 of their last 6 home games. The over is 6-1 in their last 7 divisional games. The over is 6-2 in Martins last 8 starts overall. His last 4 home starts have played over the total. The over is 4-1 in Sanchez's last 5 starts vs. Washington. The over is a profitable 41-17-3 in the Marlins last 61 trips to Washington. Play the over.
Bobby Maxwell
San Francisco (even) at MILWAUKEE
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I'm on a 5-2 run with FREE plays, and handed out an easy winner on Saturday on the college gridiron as Texas A&M pounded New Mexico. Today I'm back on the diamond for a comp play on the Giants as they take on the Brewers in Milwaukee.
When the Giants make the playoffs - and they are going to make the playoffs - people are going to give all the credit to their pitching staff. It has been dominant this season and especially here lately. Today they have their most inconsistent starter on the hill in Jonathan Sanchez (6-11, 4.15 ERA) and his ERA is still very respectable and he's the only one on staff with a no-hitter.
San Francisco has taken the first two games of this series, winning 3-2 on Friday and by the same 3-2 score Saturday night. Nobody is able to score off the Giants' pitching staff as they have given up more than three runs just twice in their last 10 games. Funny that one of their losses this last week was when Sanchez allowed one run to the Phillies and lost 1-0 to Cole Hamels.
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Sanchez has an ERA of 2.00 in his last three starts and in his last three road outings he's allowed three runs in 18 innings at the Mets, Rockies and Phillies - three solid offensive clubs. This guy has been dealing lately, allowing three runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts.
On the bump for Milwaukee is Braden Looper (11-6, 4.92) who got knocked around in St. Louis on Tuesday, allowing four runs on eight hits in six innings of a 7-6 loss. The Brewers have dropped six of his last eight starts and he's allowed four runs or more in five of those eight outings. Last time he saw the Giants was last season when he started for the Cardinals and allowed seven runs on 10 hits in three innings of an 8-2 loss.
San Francisco is on runs of 11-4 against the N.L. Central, 5-1 against right-handers and 7-2 against teams wtih a losing record. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is on slides of 0-5 with Looper on the hill at home, 2-11 on Sundays and 1-5 at home against teams with winning records.
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This game and this series belongs to the Giants.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Karl Garrett
NY Yankees at TORONTO
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How about a winning baseball total for Sunday?
After getting shutout by Roy Halladay on Friday, the Yankees were back at it on Saturday, helping get another on the books for the Bronx Bombers.
That makes 7 of New York's last 9 games versus the AL East OVER the posted price, and also 7 of their last 9 on the road OVER the posted price.
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In fact, the Yankees are on a 5-2 OVER clip their last 7 games, while the Blue Jays are on a 4-2 OVER run their last 6 games.
Sergio Mitre has been pitching some quality ball his last few times to the hill, but his ERA for the year is still near 5, while his counterpart Brian Tallet has surrendered 14 runs in his last 17 innings of work.
G-Man will take his chances, and play this Sunday matinee OVER the total.
3♦ OVER
Jeff Benton
Still on a 13-4 roll with college football free plays despite a bad call Saturday on Illinois. For Sunday, I’m going to lay the big points with Colorado in its annual season-opening game against rival Colorado State.
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Normally, this rivalry is as competitive as they come. In fact, from 2002-2007, the margin of victory between these squads was 5, 7, 3, 3, 4 and 3 points. But in each of those seasons, Colorado State’s program was guided by the highly underrated coach Sonny Lubbick. Lubbick retired before last year and he left a dearth of talent behind for new coach Steve Fairchild, and last year, the Rams opened the season with a 38-17 loss to Colorado, with the Buffs cashing as a 12½-point chalk.
Considering that was the first double-digit pointspread in this rivalry since 1999, it was obvious the oddsmakers knew the talent gap had widened between these teams. This year, the Buffs are laying nearly the same number, the difference being that this game – which for was played on a neutral site in Denver nine times in the last 11 seasons – is on Colorado’s home field in Boulder.
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This is a really big season for Buffs coach Dan Hawkins, who has yet to have a winning season in three years at the helm since being wooed from Boise State four years ago. That should change this year, as Colorado has a manageable schedule, a veteran offensive line, two quarterbacks (including the coach’s son) with game experience and a solid stable of running backs. That offense today will be going up against a CSU defense that gave up an average of 31 points per game to Division I-A foes last year. The Rams have just four starters back from that defense, and while some might argue that’s a good thing, the fact is it’s not easy to succeed when you’re incorporating eight newcomers on one side of the ball.
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In addition, the Rams have to replace a senior quarterback, and throughout spring and fall camp, Fairchild was not happy with any of the QBs in his arsenal. Bottom line: CU should dominate this game in the trenches on both sides, and I have no doubt that Hawkins, given the opportunity to set the tone for the season with a blowout win, won’t let off the throttle until the final whistle blows. Buffaloes cruise by three TDs.
3♦ COLORADO
Steve Merril
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Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Texas Rangers
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Texas missed a crucial shot to gain another game on the Red Sox last night and will look for the series win over Baltimore in Camden Yards on Sunday. Derek Holland goes for Texas and he's 5-8 with a 5.66 ERA on the season. He's struggled facing a pair of potent offenses in his last two outings in Toronto and the Yankees. Holland has never faced the Orioles who are 20-30 against left handed starters averaging 3.8 runs and a .257 batting average. They are 13-24 in the daytime and 33-37 at home where they are supposed to be better. Jeremy Guthrie's numbers aren’t too pretty as he's 9-13 with a 5.17 ERA on the season. At home he's 4-7 with a 5.14 ERA while his team is 4-10 in his 14 home starts overall. Guthrie gave up three runs and six hits in five innings when the Orioles took on Texas in Arlington in April. Michael Young (4-12), Pudge Rodriguez (3-9), Marlon Byrd (3-7), David Murphy (2-6), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (2-3) and Taylor Teagarden (1-2) hit the righthander well. Texas had won four straight before Saturday's loss. Texas is 20-15 in the daytime averaging 4.7 runs per game.
JIM FEIST
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BOSTON RED SOX at CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Take: BOSTON RED SOX
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It's a Sunday Sox matchup as the White and Red collide in Chicago. Unfortunately for the White Sox, their season is all over. They have also cleaned house, dealing away some big name players including Jim Thome to the Dodgers. However, the Red Sox are in a dog fight for the Wild Card slot in the AL playoffs. The Red Sox are two games up on Texas as both clubs have won six of their last 10 games. You can't count out Tampa Bay, who lurks six games back. Jon Lester gets the call for Boston. Lester was removed from Tuesday's start with stiffness in his groin, but insists he is fine. Lester hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of his last six starts while striking out 48 compared to just 11 walks. John Danks starts for Chicago and is 12-8 on the season with a 3.82 ERA. Danks is just 1-3 lifetime against the Red Sox in four games with a 5.24 ERA. Looks like a fine pitching matchup here on Sunday, but the Red Sox are just too focus! ed right now on winning the Wild Card to let this one slip away.
DAVE COKIN
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SEATTLE MARINERS at OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Take: SEATTLE MARINERS"
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Doug Fister continues to do a nice job for Seattle, and the Mariners are still playing solid ball, even though they're not going to make the playoffs. The A's send out Gio Gonzalez here, and his control issues figure to be a problem against a surprisingly patient Mariners offense. Seattle can handle average lefties, and I like their chances here.
Dominic Fazzini
Mississippi -17 at MEMPHIS
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It seems strange to see Mississippi ranked No. 8 in the nation, but there it is. And while the Rebels definitely deserve to be in the national rankings, this might be a little too much, too early for Ole Miss.
The underdog in this series is 4-2 ATS. And while the Rebels are 3-1 in their last four games at Memphis, they are 1-3 ATS.
The Tigers actually outgained Ole Miss in the teams' game last season, and rushed for 188 yards in defeat. And Memphis' defense should be vastly improved over last year with the addition of some nice junior college and major college transfers.
The Rebels should definitely win this game, but Memphis tends to keep things pretty close when playing at home. The Tigers have lost just once at home by more than 21 points since 1998, and they are 12-4 ATS as double-digit home 'dogs in nonconference games.
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Ole Miss is just 2-9 ATS as a road favorite of more than eight points, 2-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite on the road and 2-7 ATS against nonconference opponents on the road. All those numbers add up to a cover for Memphis today.
3♦ MEMPHIS
Sports Gambling Hotline
Colorado St. at COLORADO -10'
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Our comp play run stands at 30-13-3 the last 46 days.
Colorado has held the upper-hand in their in-state rivalry series with Colorado State, as the Buffaloes have won and covered the last pair of series meetings, and they have also won 6 of the last 8 meetings straight up.
While the line appears a bit high at first site, remember the Buffs were favored by 13 last year in Denver, and were able to cover, winning it 38-17.
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We see more of the same today in Boulder, as State went just 1-4 against the spread last year as the road dog, and the Rams have also suffered a ton of graduations from last year's bowl-winning teams.
Colorado State returns just 4 starters on defense, and chances the Buffaloes big, deep and talented offensive line wear them down on defense seems to be only a matter of time.
Lay the wood, play on Colorado minus the points!
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4♦ COLORADO
SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(8) Ole Miss at Memphis
Ole Miss opens the season with its highest ranking in 40 years as the Rebels travel to the Liberty Bowl to face traditional opening-game foe Memphis in a non-conference matchup.
After opening the 2008 season 3-4, Ole Miss won its final six games (5-1 ATS), averaging 37 points a contest, capped off by a 47-34 win over then-No. 8 Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl, cashing as a 3½-point ‘dog and vaulting the Rebels to No. 14 in the final poll. Houston Nutt’s squad did pull off the biggest shock of the 2008 season, upending eventual national champion Florida 31-30 in Gainesville, Fla., as a 23-point underdog on Sept. 27.
Jevan Snead returns at QB for the Rebels after tossing 26 TDs and 13 INTs a season ago. During the six-game winning streak, he threw 16 TD strikes and just three INTs.
Memphis dropped its first three games of 2008 (1-2 ATS), but rebounded to win six of its final nine (4-3-1 ATS) and qualify for the St. Petersburg Bowl where the Tigers were beaten up by South Florida 41-14, coming up short as 10½-point underdogs.
Back under center for Memphis is QB Arkelon Hall who threw 12 TD passes and seven INTs a season ago, but carrying the bulk of the Tigers’ offensive load will be junior RB Curtis Steele, who ran for 1,223 yards in 2008 and was the Conference USA Newcomer of the Year.
Ole Miss leads the series with Memphis 46-10-2 SU, winning 13 of the last 17 meetings, including each of the last four season-openers (2-2 ATS). Last year, Ole Miss scored a 41-24 over the Tigers as a 9½-point home chalk after eking out a 23-21 victory in Memphis back in 2007, coming up just short as a 2½-point favorite. The pup has cashed in five of the last six in this rivalry.
The Rebels are on ATS runs 14-4 overall (including five straight), 5-0 in non-conference games and 7-1 on the road, but they are on ATS slides of 6-13-1 as a favorite, 7-19 in September and 0-4 as road chalk. Memphis is just 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference contests, but 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games as a ‘dog of 10½ points or more.
Ole Miss has topped the total in its last four non-conference games, but stayed under the number in five of seven overall, eight of 11 as a favorite and nine of 13 on the road. The Tigers are on “over” streaks of 6-2 at home and 4-1 as a home ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OLE MISS
Colorado State at Colorado
The Rocky Mountain showdown is in prime time tonight as Colorado State travels to Boulder to take on the instate rival Buffaloes in this traditional season-opening matchup.
First-year coach Steve Fairchild led the Rams to a 7-6 mark (7-5 ATS) in 2008, finishing on a high note by beating Fresno State 40-35 as a two-point underdog in the New Mexico Bowl. Colorado earned the bowl berth by winning its final two regular-season games after dropping five of seven (3-4 ATS) in the middle portion of the campaign.
The strength of the Colorado State offense is the line that has five seniors with 129 career starts under its belt. They will be blocking for QB Grant Stucker, who made a push for the starting nod a season ago before losing the battle to then-senior Billy Farris.
The Buffs were 5-7 (4-7 ATS) in 2008, but things went downhill in a hurry for coach Dan Hawkins after a 3-0 (2-0 ATS) start, as CU lost seven of its last nine both SU and ATS. The defense fell apart late in the season, allowing each of its last five opponents to score 24 points or more.
Colorado finished dead-last in the Big 12 in total offense in 2008 and last in scoring. There is a QB controversy between incumbent QB Cody Hawkins (the coach’s son) and Tyler Hansen. Dan Hawkins is not naming a starter until game time, but it’s believed the edge is with Cody Hawkins, who threw for 1,892 yards, 17 TDs and 10 INTs last season.
The Buffs have cashed in each of the last two meetings with the Rams, including last year’s 38-17 win as 12½-point favorites in Denver, where this matchup had taken place in nine of the last 11 meetings. It was the first time since 2001 this rivalry was decided by more than seven points. The pup is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 clashes.
Colorado State went just 2-5 ATS on the road in 2008 and 1-4 ATS as a visiting ‘dog. Meanwhile, in addition to failing to cash in seven of its final nine games a year ago, Colorado is just 1-7 ATS in its last nine as home favorite of 3½ to 10 points.
The Rams have topped the total in four straight on the road, six of seven overall, and four of five as a pup. The Buffaloes are on “under” runs of 5-2 overall and 11-3 in non-conference games, but they have gone over the number in eight of 11 as a favorite, nine of 13 against Mountain West Conference teams and six of eight as a home favorite.
Finally, the over is 9-4 in the last 13 matchups in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: COLORADO and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (74-61) at Tampa Bay (72-63)
Former Rays starter Edwin Jackson (11-6, 3.09 ERA) takes the ball at Tropicana Field as the Tigers try to complete a three-game road sweep of Tampa Bay, which sends highly touted prospect Wade Davis to the mound for his major league debut.
Detroit, on top of the A.L. Central by six games over Minnesota, rallied with five late runs to beat Tampa 8-6 on Saturday after scoring three runs in the ninth inning Friday to steal a 4-3 decision. The Tigers are riding a five-game winning streak and they’ve won seven of the last 10 against the Rays, including four of six this season.
In addition to their current five-game run, the Tigers are 8-1 in their last nine against right-handed starters. However, they’re still on slides of 8-15 on the road, 22-44 on the road against winning teams and 2-5 on Sundays. Tampa is in funks of 1-5 on Sunday, 10-27 in the third game of a series and 1-5 against right-handers. But the Rays are still on runs of 37-17 at home, 70-32 at home against teams with losing road records and 73-28 at home against right-handers.
Jackson gave up four runs on nine hits in five innings on Tuesday, but his offense bailed him out with an 8-5 win at home against the Indians. His last road outing was on Aug. 26 in Los Angeles when he gave up four runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-2 loss to the Angels. Detroit has won each of Jackson’s last four starts as a favorite, but the Tigers are just 1-5 in his last six roadies and 0-5 on the road when he faces a winning team. Jackson is facing his former mates for the first time in his career.
Davis, who turns 24 on Monday, went 10-8 with a 10.40 ERA in 28 starts at Triple-A Durham. He’s Tampa Bay’s top minor-league pitching prospect.
It’s been all “unders” lately for the Tigers, including 14-5 in Jackson’s last 19 starts overall, 10-2 when he pitches on the road, 10-4 when he’s a favorite, 7-3 in their last 10 as a team overall and 13-6 in their last 19 Sunday games. Also, the Rays are on “under” streaks of 14-5 as a home ‘dog, 6-1 on Sundays and 19-8-2 against A.L. Central teams.
In this series, the “over” has been the play in 10 of the last 16 games played in Florida.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Boston (78-57) at Chicago White Sox (68-69)
The White Sox will try to make it five straight wins overall and four in a row over the Red Sox when they send southpaw John Danks (12-8, 3.82 ERA) to the hill at U.S. Cellular Field to face Boston lefty Jon Lester (11-7, 3.58).
Chicago has outscored Boston 17-3 in the first two games of this four-game set, including Saturday’s 5-1 victory led by Gavin Floyd, who allowed just one run on three hits over eight innings while striking out 11. Chicago has won three straight against Boston dating to a series-finale at Fenway Park last week. Prior to this run, though, the Red Sox had taken 14 of 17 against the Pale Hose.
Despite dropping the first two in this series, Boston carries positive runs of 19-8 as a favorite, 46-19 against A.L. Central teams, 10-3 against teams with a losing record, 4-1 as a road chalk and 6-2 on the road against teams with a losing mark. Chicago is on slides of 0-5 on Sundays and 3-7 against A.L. East teams, but it is 7-1 in its last eight as a home ‘dog and 9-2 in its last 11 at home against winning teams.
The Red Sox have won four straight with Lester on the hill and he’s 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in his last three trips to the mound. On Tuesday he allowed two runs over six innings of an 8-4 win in Tampa Bay. Lester has not allowed more than three runs in any of his last six road starts with Boston winning three straight.
With Lester on the hill, Boston is on positive runs of 36-16 overall, 7-3 on the road, 10-4 on Sundays, 4-1 against the A.L. Central and 7-1 when he’s a road favorite. Also, in his lone start against the White Sox this season, Lester gave up three runs in 6 2/3 innings in a 6-3 home win on Aug. 25, improving to 1-1 with a 4.12 ERA in three career starts versus Chicago.
Danks hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his last five outings, including Tuesday when he held the Twins to three runs on six hits in seven innings, but he failed to earn a decision in a 4-3 loss. Prior to that, Danks held the Red Sox to two runs on six hits in six innings of a 9-5 win on Aug. 27. It was the first time in four starts that Danks came out on top against Boston, against whom he is now 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA.
Chicago is on positive streaks of 5-2 when Danks is a ‘dog, 4-1 when he’s at home and 4-0 when he faces A.L. East squads. He’s made 12 starts at US Cellular Field this year, going 5-5 with a 3.98 ERA.
Boston is on “over” streaks of 17-6 as a favorite, 10-5 against losing teams and 5-1-1 against southpaws, but with Lester on the hill, the Red Sox are on “under” runs of 5-2 on Sundays and 5-1 against the A.L. Central. For Chicago, the “under’ is on streaks of 14-3 overall, 6-0 at home, 20-7-1 as an underdog and 11-4-1 as a home ‘dog. Also, with Danks pitching, the White Sox have stayed under the total in four of five overall, six of seven on Sunday and 12 of 16 against teams with a winning record.
Finally, the under is 6-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these two, but the over is 7-4 in the last 11 clashes in the Windy City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON