Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 7

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

San Francisco at Detroit
After taking the first two games of the series, the Giants go for the sweep tonight and come into the contest with a 5-0 record in Tim Hudson's last 5 starts in Game 3 of a series. San Francisco is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-105)

Game 901-902: Atlanta at Miami (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 15.631; Miami (Hand) 14.026
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-145); Under

Game 903-904: NY Mets at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Wheeler) 16.423; Cincinnati (Latos) 14.986
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105); Over

Game 905-906: Philadelphia at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.802; Washington (Gonzalez) 15.678
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+125); Over

Game 907-908: St. Louis at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.128; Milwaukee (Nelson) 13.646
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135); Under

Game 909-910: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cole) 15.779; Cubs (Wood) 14.341
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-155); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-155); N/A

Game 911-912: Arizona at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Cahill) 15.902; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 14.745
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+180); Over

Game 913-914: San Diego at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 13.374; Colorado (Morales) 14.840
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: San Diego (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+110); Over

Game 915-916: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Carroll) 14.378; Cleveland (Carrasco) 15.647
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-200) 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-200); Under

Game 917-918: Kansas City at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Ventura) 14.823; NY Yankees (Greene) 16.379
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-120); Under

Game 919-920: Toronto at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 15.696; Boston (De La Rosa) 14.164
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-105); Over

Game 921-922: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Norris) 16.331; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 14.772
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Over

Game 923-924: LA Angels at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 15.896; Minnesota (Darnell) 14.401
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 925-926: Seattle at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Paxton) 15.397; Texas (Holland) 13.851
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-145); Under

Game 927-928: Houston at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 15.762; Oakland (Hammel) 14.765
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+135); Over

Game 929-930: San Francisco at Detroit (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Hudson) 16.962; Detroit (Lobstein) 15.405
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-105); Over

CFL

Saskatchewan at Winnipeg
The Roughriders head to Winnipeg today and come into the contest with a 5-1-1 ATS record in their last 7 road games. Saskatchewan is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-2 1/2)

Game 497-498: Hamilton at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 110.520; Montreal 112.707
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 2; 41
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 1; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+1); Under

Game 499-500: Saskatchewan at Winnipeg (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 116.843; Winnipeg 111.811
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 5; 55
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 2 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-2 1/2); Over

DUNKEL INDEX

WNBA

Chicago at Phoenix
The Mercury open up the WNBA Finals on Sunday against a Chicago team that is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games versus Western Conference opponents. Phoenix is the pick (-9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-9 1/2)

Game 601-602: Chicago at Phoenix (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 110.498; Phoenix 123.068
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 12 1/2; 159
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 9 1/2; 154
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-9 1/2); Over

Chip Chirimbes

Washington vs. Houston
Play: Washington +3

The Baltimore Ravens are playing like a team on a mission as they are now 17-9 straight-up in pre-season under John Harbaugh after their pounding of the Cowboys in Dallas. They opened their season with a 23-2 win over San Francisco and have established their macho approach. Still, The Redskins under new coach Jay Gruden will be working harder.

Carolina vs. Tampa Bay
Play: Carolina +3

To tell you the truth I was looking to take Tampa Bay here but the media turned my head. In Las Vegas the Buc's are by far the #1 consensus play play by over 200 selections. That's just not right and one of my closest friends and biggest losers 'loves' Tampa Bay. I don't know how but some way the Panthers get it done.

Chip Chirimbes's Featured Package

Swish Analytics

Carolina vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Carolina -118

Data doesn't lie, and heading into Week 1 of the 2014 NFL season, the data stacks up in favor of the Panthers, a playoff team from last year, while the Bucs have little except a new head coach in Lovie Smith to buoy them. Our extremely accurate models are high on a number of games, but few have the 8* confidence rating of this free pick.

With a projected ROI of 11.6% and a win confidence of 55.2%, taking the Carolina Panthers on the moneyline at -118 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is one of the most statistically savvy bets you can make in Week 1 of the the 2014 NFL season.

In 14 games since the 2000-2001 season, the Panthers have won 62.5% of their games against the Bucs. The Bucs, of course, are opening the season at home, which explains why they're not as big of an underdog as you might expect. That being said, the Panthers have performed even better on the road than they have at home against the Bucs, winning 66.7% of their games at Raymond James Stadium in the same timeframe.

On an individual level, our models project Cam Newton to throw for 212 yards against the Bucs' D, which ranked dead center of the pack during the 2013 season when it comes to passing YPG at 237.9. You can also expect Newton to put in work on the ground; in two games last year, he burned the Bucs D with his legs, gaining 118 yards in total with 2 TDs. Our algorithms project him to have 35 yards rushing in Week 1, which will have the Bucs (who are still learning new defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier's defensive scheme) off balance throughout the game.

Lastly, our line projection models expect to see a rush of money coming in on the Panthers as the season approaches. The first few weeks of any NFL season see playoff teams from the previous year receive the majority of action, so locking in Carolina at -118 now is the smart play as you shouldn't expect a line this advantageous to last long once the general betting public gets a hold of it.

I guess data does lie sometimes

EZWINNERS

Tampa Bay Bucs +2

Carolina had a great turn around season last year posting a 12-4 record, but I expect regression this season. Since 2002 there have been thirty six teams that posted ten or more wins following a losing season like the Panthers did last year and out of those thirty six teams, twenty nine of them regressed by at least one win the following year. Carolina is a whole different team on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Cam Newton had off season ankle surgery and he has a whole new cast of receivers to get used to playing with since Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn are all gone. Carolina will be counting on a rookie, Calvin Benjamin who is still very raw to be their top receiver. To make matters worse, the Panthers already shaky offensive line will be without Pro Bowl left tackle Jordan Gross who has retired. Tampa Bay is a team on the rise. New head coach Lovie Smith will improve a Tampa Bay defense that was near the bottom of the league last season. Star cornerback Darrelle Revis is gone, but Tampa Bay snagged two of the top defensive free agents with defensive end Michael Johnson from Cincinnati and cornerback Alterraun Verner from Tennessee who is a better fit in Lovie Smith's zone defense. The Bucs also added defensive tackle Clinton McDonald from the Super Bowl champion Seahawks. Offensively I also expect the Bucs to be much improved after finishing at the bottom of the league in total offense last year. Former Bear's quarterback Josh McCown will be under center after a huge year as a backup to Jay Cutler last season. McCown had a lot of success last year throwing to big receivers in Chicago and that is exactly what he will have here in Tampa with Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans along with rookie tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins. The Bucs will also have a healthy running back in third year player Doug Martin who missed most of last season with a shoulder injury and also Charles Sims who has a diverse skill set coming out of the backfield. The Buc's offensive line will also be improved with the addition of center Evan Dietrich-Smith and left tackle Anthony Collins. Carolina had one of the best defensive units in the league last year, but if their offense struggles to move the ball and keep them off the field they won't be nearly as effective this season. The Panthers defense also suffered losses in the secondary as Mike Mitchell ( signed with Pittsburgh) is a critical loss at safety and Captain Munnerlyn's (signed with Minnesota) presence will be especially missed in the slot. Also star defensive end Greg Hardy added to the off season distractions as he was arrested following an alleged incident of domestic violence and there is a good chance he won't play in this game. This also a very bad technical spot for the Panthers as playoff teams laying points in week one against a non playoff team have been huge money burners. This is a big home game for the Bucs and Lovie Smith to get off to a good start and Carolina has lost their first road game of the season the last five years. I like Tampa in this one. Take the points.

Washington Redskins +3

I'm jumping on this play now while it's still at the key number of three. The Texans looked horrible in their first pre-season game against Arizona. We should all remember that it is only the pre-season and we shouldn't over react, but this Texans team needs a lot of work. The defense is still adjusting to a new scheme and the secondary will need a lot of work. On offense you can see why wide receiver Andre Johnson wanted out because the quarterback situation is a mess. Ryan Fitzpatrick is just not a quality starting quarterback in this league and Case Keenum and Tom Savage don't bring much improve to the position either. At this point Matt Schaub would be looking very attractive to still have on the roster. Washington is not a playoff team in my opinion, but they are much further along than Houston. The Skins have RGIII at quarterback which is a huge advantage compared to the Texans signal callers This Texans team needs to learn how to win again and being favored against anyone to start the season is asking way too much. Jump on this line before it drops as I will be very surprised if you will be able to get Washington +3 at kickoff in a few weeks. Take the points.

Atlanta Falcons +3

This is a HUGE game for Atlanta as the Falcons will look to bounce back from last years disaster and become a factor in the NFL once again. The Falcons are a healthy this season with wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones at 100%. Running back Stephen Jackson is also healthy and Atlanta also added another game breaker in Devin Hester. The Saints swept the series last year, but both of those games were very close. Atlanta has the reputation has being a soft team, but they have made some moves in free agency to help with that on both sides of the ball. I love the Saints chances this season. They have improved their defense with the signing of Jairus Byrd and also added another offensive weapon with rookie Brandon Cooks, but the Saints still need to prove it to me on the road where they are just 2-9-1 against the spread in their last twelve games. This is a much bigger game for the Falcons and with the public money pouring in on New Orleans I will gladly take the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars +11.5

Philadelphia put up some huge numbers on the offensive side of the ball last season and they should be explosive once again but laying double digit points in the NFL is never a good idea, even if it is against one of the worst teams in the league. This is also a very bad technical spot to back Philadelphia. In week one, playoff teams that are favored against non playoff teams have been some of the worst bets that could be made failing to cover about 75% of the time. The Eagles have a lot of weapons on offense, but Nick Foles will have to adjust to life without wide receiver DeShawn Jackson who is now with the Redskins. As I'm playing this game the Eagles have only played one pre-season game and Foles was shaky. I already expected a bit of regression this season so we will have to see how that plays out. The Jags also upgraded their defense over the off season with the additions of defensive ends Chris Clemons and Red Bryant who both played for head coach Gus Bradley when he was the defensive coordinator at Seattle. On the offensive side Jacksonville still has questions at quarterback and it is yet to be seen if Chad Henne or Blake Bortles will be under center to start this game but they have a pair of explosive weapons in wide receivers Marquise Lee and Allen Robinson. Both playmakers are capable of becoming top caliber NFL receivers and the Jags also have their top returning wide receiver in to go along with the rookies in the steady Cecil Shorts. The addition of running back Toby Gerhart from Minnesota should also give a boost to the running game that has not produced the last couple years with a banged up Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield. I like Jacksonville to keep this one close, take the points.

Baltimore Ravens -1.5

Baltimore made some nice improvements in the off season. Former Texans head coach Gary Kubiak is the new offensive coordinator and quarterback Joe Flacco has a new weapon to help the passing game with wide receiver Steve Smith who came over from the Panthers and the Ravens also upgraded their offensive line. Dennis Pita being healthy is also huge for this offense that relies heavily on the tightend. The Ravens also picked up former Texan Owen Daniels who will provide even more depth at the tightend positions. The Ravens defense also should be improved in the second year of the post Ray Lewis era. The Bengals are a talented team, but they brand new offensive and defensive coordinators. Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton will also have a rookie center snapping him the ball this season. The home team has won and covered the spread in four straight meetings and I look for that to continue in this game. Lay the points.

Miami Dolphins +4.5

This is a huge game for the Dolphins as that organization wants to take the next step and prove that they are a contender in this division. I see a lot of value with Miami in this spot. Last season the Dolphins were a small favorite at home against these Patriots and now they are catching points. This is another one of these profitable spots to back the underdog that didn't make the playoffs last year against a playoff team in week one. Miami should be improved this season. Quarterback Ryan Tannahill has had the whole off season and training camp to gel with wide receiver Mike Wallace who I expect to have a much more productive season than his first in Miami. The Dolphins have pass rushers to get after Tom Brady with defensive end's Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon who combined for 20 sacks last season and they also beefed up their secondary in the off season as well. New England is going to be one of the top teams in the AFC once again this year but they are usually overvalued by the Vegas odds makers. New England has won ten straight season openers but they are just 5-5 against the spread in those games. I expect this one to be decided by a field goal one way or the other. Take the points.

Dallas Cowboys +6

I think this is going to be a very interesting game. San Francisco is my pick to win the Super Bowl this season, but I have to admit they did not look very good in the pre-season. The starting offense for the 49ers looked bad and could not find the end zone. I expect this group to come together, but it might take a few weeks and that is a good thing for Dallas. The Cowboys defense looks like they will once again be one of the worst in the NFL. They might have a chance to play well against the struggling 49ers offense, but then again they might be just the think to get the San Francisco offense on track! I really like the Dallas offense in this match up to keep us within the number against a 49ers defense that will be at less than 100% to start to season due to injuries and/or suspension. Dallas have been an automatic fade for me as a favorite, but as an underdog they have been solid. This is also another case of a playoff team laying points against a non playoff team in week one which has been a cash cow for the dogs. I think San Fran will be lucky to escape Big D with a win. Take the points.

DAVE COKIN

BUFFALO BILLS AT CHICAGO BEARS
PLAY: CHICAGO BEARS -6.5

I generally put very little stock into pre-season results. As a rule, I mostly dismiss them almost entirely. But there is the rare exception to that rule, and I’m afraid I’m going to have to put the Buffalo Bills into that category.

It’s not just that the Bills were horrible offensively throughout the exhibition schedule. Sometimes teams just play the four, and in Buffalo’s case, five pre-season games as evaluation scrimmages where there’s little in the way of game planning. But that really wasn’t the case for the Bills, and the loss last night to Detroit was beyond ugly.

The Bills were off a very poor showing at home last week against Tampa Bay where the locals booed them off the field on more than a couple of occasions. Head Coach Doug Marrone left no doubt he was displeased. He clearly stated he was looking for improvement this week, and announced he would be getting his ones on the field for a decent amount of snaps. That being the case, the utter ineptitude the Bills displayed for basically the entire 60 minutes against the Lions is downright alarming.

Take your pick as to just how many things went wrong in this mismatch. EJ Manuel appears to have regressed from his rookie season. Top draft pick Sammy Watkins probably should have been held out considering he was already banged up. He played, got hurt again, and his status for the season opener is now unknown. The special teams were horrible. About the only thing Buffalo did reasonably well was defend the run, and even that’s a bit tainted as the Lions ran a very vanilla offense throughout.

I’m not quite as high on the Bears as many observers. I definitely like the offense, but have some real misgivings about the defense. But from what Buffalo has shown in the pre-season, whatever liabilities Chicago has on that side of the football aren’t likely to be exposed in this season opener.

I’m not pinning all of this on Marrone, but let’s face facts, he wasn’t exactly the hottest commodity on the market when the Bills tabbed him as their head coach. The early grade from last season might be an incomplete, but I’m more pessimistic about him based on what I just saw. It seems clear that the Bills didn’t respond at all to the challenge Marrone basically issued heading into this game. If the team can’t respond against a bunch of Detroit backups, I don’t see how much can be expected of them against what will be a fired up Bears entry next Sunday.

The number on this game is currently less than one TD. I have to think this number is heading up. No doubt about it, the favorite will be a very square side next Sunday. But I just can’t get past what I’ve seen from the Bills, especially in these last two pre-season skirmishes, and my sense is to get the hosts now while the gettin’ is good. I’ll lay it with the Bears.

DAVE COKIN

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT ST. LOUIS RAMS
PLAY: ST. LOUIS RAMS -4

Quarterback A has a career record of 18-30-1 and a career QBR of 79.3. Quarterback B has a career record of 13-13 and a career QB rating of 85.9.

You’ve probably already figured out which QB’s I’m referring to and where I’m going with this. Don’t get me wrong, I completely understand that Sam Bradford has a higher ceiling than Shaun Hill. But in terms of actual on the field accomplishments in the NFL, Bradford never did much, and in fact, Hill has assembled a better record as a starter and with a higher QB rating to boot.

Yet the injury to the very unlucky Bradford has made for what I absolutely consider to be a major line adjustment and a knee jerk reaction from early NFL bettors. The Rams were -6.5 favorites as they prepped to host the Vikings in Week One before Bradford went down. Now the number is all the way down to -4 and a whopping percentage of the tickets written thus far have been on the Vikings.

Sorry, I’m not buying this line move at all. I think it’s a massive overreaction and there’s no way I believe Bradford is worth 2.5 points more than Hill. It’s not as though Hill is a raw rookie being forced into action who figures to be overwhelmed by the scenario. Fact is, while Bradford was showing improvement and might have been ready to take a step forward, it’s Hill who owns the better resume on what’s actually taken place.

So my take is that the Rams aren’t measurably worse with Hill under center, and that means we now have a line that I think is out of whack. This St. Louis team looks pretty solid for the most part. They’re going to rely on what already figured to be a workmanlike, run first offense and a defense that has a chance to be one of the better units in the NFL this season.

As for the Vikings, I don’t think they’re any good. I’ve got them as my 26th rated team coming into the new season. The Rams were much higher than that prior to the Bradford injury and I only knocked one point off my offensive power rating when he got hurt.

I originally made the Rams -6.5 for this game, so I definitely now see value with the line having dropped and if it continues to do so, that’s fine with me. I also fully expect a very motivated showing here, as the Rams will be determined to prove to themselves and everyone else they’re still going to be a force too be reckoned with this season. I look at this as an opportunity to fade the public money while also getting what amounts to a bargain at the price. I’m taking the Rams minus the points in this season opener.

Art Aronson

Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Tennessee Titans +4

The Titans come off a disappointing 7-9 season that resulted in missing the playoffs for a fifth straight year; the sub-par result led to the firing of Mike Munchak. Enter Ken Wisenhunt who is coming off a vastly successful campaign as the offensive coordinator for the San Diego Chargers. The Titans will have Jake Locker back and healthy behind center after missing the last five games of last season due to an injury. Keeping Locker upright is going to be a huge point of emphasis this season and thanks to some significant upgrades to the offensive line I think the Titans will definitely improve in that area. Some might consider the tandem of Chance Warmack, the high drafted Taylor Lewan, Michael Roos and Andy Levitre as one of the best units in the game. It is a young fast offensive group that Whisenhunt inherits but he has been successful calling the plays just about everywhere he has gone of late. The Titans defense was middle of the pack statistically so that will also be a point of emphasis for the team. The Kansas City Chiefs had a disappointing end to what was a great overall first season for the Andy Reid/Alex Smith era. The Chiefs won 11 games after winning just two the year before. However, take note that KC had a pretty vanilla schedule last year, but good on them for taking advantage of it. This season the schedule is not friendly at all and the jury is out on whether they’ll be able to replicate last years performance. From a motivational angle, the Titans come into this game looking for revenge after last season’s 27-17 setback; Locker was a notable injury in that game where the Chiefs rallied to win despite blowing a 13-0 halftime lead. The Titans are a popular pick as a breakout team this season and I can see why, as for the most part the offense has all the pieces in place to be far better than last year’s installment. Kansas City has problems on the offensive line and is very thin defensively in my opinion. So while it is only week one and most everyone is healthy, I just don’t think the Chiefs are going to sneak up on anyone this year. I’m grabbing all the points I can get in what should be a much more competitive game than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

Art Aronson's Featured Package

Bill Biles

Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -3½

The Chiefs open up at home after a successful season last year. I think they will be able to control this game with one of the best running backs in the game in Jamaal Charles and run the ball effectively. The Chiefs defense is their strong suit and they have a top front 7 in the NFL. Look for the Chiefs to start off strong.

Sam Martin

New Orleans at Atlanta
Prediction: Over

It was a long fall from the top for the Atlanta Falcons last year, as multiple injuries resulted in a 4-12 season. Atlanta is healthy to start the new year, and that means we can expect the passing game behind Matt Ryan to be back at full force starting this Sunday.

Key division matchup with the Saints coming to town, and while we can see scenarios where both teams can emerge victorious, we have faith in both offenses - particularly through the passing game - to put up big numbers here. The return of head coach Sean Payton led to the resurgence of the Saints offense last year (Payton is the offensive play-caller) and nothing should change in that regard this year. Atlanta gave up 28 ppg last season, and while that number should improve this year we expect an old fashioned shootout in this opener!

Tony Stoffo

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: New Orleans Saints -3

Another big move on the opening number as the Sharps pounded the Saints forcing the odds makers making the Saints the favorite in this spot moving this line in some places as much as 4 1/2 points. And the move for looks like the right thing as the Saints improved defensively in the off season, and let's not forget how bad the Falcons looked on Hard Knocks. So let's follow the money and make a solid release on the Saints at this number.

Tony George

NY Jets -5.5

Its Oakland on the road 3 times zones away, need I say more? No doubt a square bet but all things favor the Jets here going up against a rookie QB who makes his first start on the road. QB Geno Smith for the Jets a year more matured and did some good things in the preseason and Mike Vick as a backup option is no slouch either. More offensive production from the Jets versus the Raiders who have to travel across the country to play this one, in a hostile environment. The really bad thing going to the Raiders when you look closely at this game is the limited ability of their offensive line to protect the passer, in this case Rookie QB Derrick Carr, who has some ability as I saw him play in person in college, but being under relentless attack from an active defense like the Jets is going to produce turnovers and that means points the other way.

Not at all sold on the long term success of either of these teams, but Oakland remains quite frankly a bad team with some big names on it, but no chemistry and limited potential at head coach as well. The Jets are in a tough division and every winnable game at home must be a priority for Rex Ryan and company and this is one of them. The total on this game is the lowest on the board this week, the only total under 40 points, and that means oddsmakers expect points to be at a premium, I think it means they do not think Oakland is going to score many points. Willing to lay the points even though this is not the ideal number, as I think the Jets are TD + better here at home in their opener. This line may move as I do not foresee Oakland money moving oit down so bet it early.

Brady Kannon

Jaguars / Eagles Over 52

The Eagles offense picked up right where it left off in the preseason, averaging 33-points a game. The problem is, so did their defense, giving up 26-points per game. The Jaguars focused on offense in the offseason and drafted Quarterback Blake Bortles. He along with a new backfield and some fresh faces at wide receiver, have had an impressive preseason campaign and it looks like Jacksonville is ready to score quite a few more points this year than they did last. Although The Jags defense appears improved with new coach Gus Bradley calling the shots, they did rank as the 3rd worst unit in the league last year. Philadelphia was "one better" as the 2nd to last rated defense in the NFL. Finally, this is a non conference affair and last season such contests went over the total at an alarming rate - over 65% of the time, if I recall. With an improving offense against a not so improving defense and an already high octane offense against an average defense - and in a non conference tussle to boot in which unfamiliarity holds true, we will take this one to go OVER the very large number of 52.