Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 7

Bryan Power

New England vs. Miami
Pick: Miami

The Dolphins are a team that I'm not particularly high on coming into the year, but this is a lot of value for Week 1. Consider that last year, amidst a ton of turmoil, they were actually FAVORED to beat the Patriots at home and came through w/ a 24-20 SU win and cover. Now they're GETTING points. Even better is that the number continues to climb. I'd monitor it between now and kickoff because you might be able to get an even better number as the public continues to bet New England. By the way, QB Ryan Tannehill almost threw for 4,000 yards last year while nearly getting killed behind said offensive line.

While they are breaking in five new starters along the offensive line, it's hard to imagine that group being any worse than last year for the Dolphins when they were in the throes of the Richie Incognito situation. This is a Miami team that started last year 3-0 amidst (second time using that word!) high expectations. Up until a terrible 0-2 finish to the season that cost them the playoffs, four of their six losses came by a field goal or less. The only two exceptions were at New England and at New Orleans.

Obviously, a home dog is a pretty attractive proposition in the first place. But considering New England's 1-4 ATS mark as road chalk a season ago, this one looks even juicier. I'm not sold yet on this New England offense being able to blow teams out like they used to. They are 0-6 ATS their last six games on grass. Also, the home team has covered in all four meetings between these teams the last two years.

Harry Bondi

Buffalo / Chicago Over 47

Marc Trestman’s offense in Chicago was fantastic last year and will be even better in 2014 with a healthy Jay Cutler and NBA-sized receivers taking full advantage of the new rules that favor the offense and hamper defensive backs. Expect the Bears to put up a big number here against a Bills team playing with its third defensive coordinator in three years and is transitioning into a new 4-3 scheme. Meanwhile, the Bills and mobile QB EJ Manuel will have plenty of scoring opportunities.

Andre Ramirez

San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: San Francisco 49ers -210

Dallas' defense surrendered a league-high 6,645 yards and 50 TDs last season. Things could be worse this year. The Cowboys are without linebacker Sean Lee and cornerback Orlando Scandrick is suspended. The top pass rushers have departed. Colin Kapernick is a break-out candidate in his fourth season with improved wide receiver weapons and arguably the league's best offensive line. San Francisco was 6-0-1 ATS as road chalk last year. Expect the 49ers' offense to be improved while their defense regresses. Tony Romo operates a strong attack, but he can't win a shootout against this elite foe.

Andre Ramirez's Featured Package

Dr Bob

Minnesota (+4) 24 ST. LOUIS 23

Things are looking up in Minnesota as former Bengals DC Mike Zimmer takes over as head coach, and brings respected offensive coordinator Norv Turner in to run the offense. This is a team that clearly has talent that had previously been mismanaged by the former administration, and I expect them to take a step forward this season under new leadership. Playing in the NFC North against the Packers, Bears and Lions doesn’t help their chance of improving in the win column, but there will be improvement. On offense, they still have AP. For my money, he is still the best running back in the game. They also have a pretty good offensive line, one with continuity, as they will be bringing back the same five starters in 2014. They have a QB in Matt Cassel that played well at times last season, despite what seemed like efforts from the offensive coaches to prevent that from happening. They also have a stable of capable receivers, one in particular that has breakout potential in Cordarrelle Patterson. Adrian Peterson recently said, “This is going to be the best offense I’ve played in. This is the offense I’ve been waiting for,” via the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Optimism runs high in Minnesota.

There are some changes on the way for 2013’s worst scoring defense, however, as Zimmer implements his own brand of multiple fronts and departs from Frazier’s Cover-2 based scheme. DE Jared Allen is now gone, replaced by Everson Griffen, with a bevy of talented young players on the defensive line ready to contribute in multiple spots. DT Linval Joseph comes over from the Giants, while 2013 first round draft pick DT Sharrif Floyd now assumes a starting role. Cory Wootton comes over from the Bears to provide some depth at defensive end behind Griffen and Robison. 2014 first round draft pick Anthony Barr will inject some speed and playmaking ability to a linebacking corps that can use it. In the secondary, Harrison Smith is back after missing half the season last year due to injury and second year CB Xavier Rhodes will look to improve on an encouraging rookie season. Joining them will be newly acquired CB Captain Munnerlyn as he comes over from Carolina. Season projections are for slow but steady improvement overall.

Getting out of the preseason healthy is always the most important goal, particularly with respect to the most important player on the field, the QB. Unfortunately for the Rams, fragile QB Sam Bradford was lost for the season after he tore the ACL in his left knee, the same injury that knocked him out last season. This leaves the Rams offense in a difficult spot. They are now left with 34 year old Shaun Hill who hasn’t started a game since 2010 as their starter. That, couple with the ineffectiveness of the Shottenheimer offensive scheme, is a recipe for trouble. Last season, with Kellen Clemens at the helm, the Rams fielded a horrible offensive team. With no major passing threat, teams concentrated on stopping the run. As a result, the Rams could only produce 72 yards at 3.7 ypr against a schedule of teams that would allow 113 yards at 4.4 ypr on average. Overall, the offense only generated an average of 302 yards per game at 4.9 yppl versus teams that normally allow 347 yards at 5.5 yppl. With some improvements along the offensive line and in the receiving group, I expect some improvement in offensive production, but not a lot.

Fortunately the Rams do have one of the best defensive lines in the game, and this position group will be responsible for keeping the Rams competitive this season. New DC Gregg Williams will be aggressive with an athletic front seven that will likely take more chances with hopes of big payoffs. There are some concerns in the defensive backfield, especially with CB Trumaine Johnson out with a sprained MCL.

My ratings have this game at about a pick’em (Vikings -.3) and I don’t have any situations in play. I like where the Vikings are going as a team, they are stronger at QB as well as overall offensively and I think Zimmer will have something special cooked up for Shaun Hill as he makes his first start in a long time. I’ll lean with the Vikings plus the points.

CHICAGO (-7) 32 Buffalo 21

After a promising 2-2 start to the season in 2013 with home wins over the Panthers and Ravens and a narrow 2 point loss to the Patriots, the Bills seemed to be a team on the rise. The Week 5 game in Cleveland is where it all started to unravel for the Bills as QB EJ Manuel was injured. He was replaced by the combination of Thad Lewis and Jeff Tuel who guided the Bills to a 1-4 record over the course of their next 5 games as the season slipped away. Manuel eventually came back to start Game 10 against the Steelers and guided the Bills to a 3-4 record the rest of the way, but didn’t look comfortable. Offensive hopes are resting with improvement by Manuel in his second season but offseason reports and preseason results have been decidedly mixed. Peter King (themmqb.com) reported a conversation that he had with Doug Marrone about EJ Manuel, “He tries to pinpoint the ball … and that’s really just difficult to do,’’ Marrone said. “We have all done that when we were kids. You play baseball and you start aiming it. You’ve just got to look at the mitt and throw it.’’

If the Bills are to make any strides this season, they will have to rely on their defense, and particularly their outstanding defensive line. The starting front of Hughes, Darius, and Kyle and Mario Williams provide a formidable line that provides an exceptional combination of pass rush and run stuffing ability. I’m concerned about the middle of the defense with the loss of LB Kiko Alonso and overall I expect this defense to take a step back. The loss of DC Mike Pettine and his aggressive blitz-oriented scheme that generated 57 sacks last season will hurt. Former Lions head coach Jim Schwartz takes over as DC and utilizes more of a four man front, wide-9 approach. There is certainly talent here but once again another scheme change on defense won’t help the progression of a defense that excelled in Pettine’s first year.

They’ll try to match up with a Bears team in their second year of HC Marc Trestman’s offensive schemes after a successful first season. It really didn’t matter who was at QB last season as the Bears offense was above average both on the ground and in the air. Overall, the Bears averaged 382 yards at 6.1 yppl against defenses that allowed 358 yards at 5.5 yppl on average and return all of their offensive starters. The unit that required attention was the defense after a poor first season under DC Mel Tucker. Injuries were the main culprit and it would be difficult to field any semblance of a capable NFL defense with the number of key players that went down last season. The major losses sustained at every level of their defense (DL, LB’s and secondary) were simply too much for the Bears to overcome. There is an infusion of hope this season, however, with the arrival of a number of noteworthy players and the return to health of several others. DT Stephen Paea comes back from injury while draft choices Ego Ferguson and Will Sutton should provide depth. Adding DE’s Jared Allen, Lamarr Houston and Willie Young will help. Veteran LB Briggs and CB Tillman are back and they also added 1st round CB Kyle Fuller and free agent S Ryan Mundy in the secondary. If the new additions learn to play together with some level of cohesion, this is a defense that will improve as the year progresses.

No situations apply to this game but my numbers favor the Bears here by 10.5 points. EJ Manuel doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence right now and taking to the road with a banged up top receiver (Sammy Watkins – ribs), I expect the Bills offense to struggle against an improved Chicago defense. I also expect that the Bears offense, now in its second season with Trestman, will be able to exploit the newly implemented Schwartz wide-9. I’ll lean with the Bears to cover the number.

HOUSTON -2.5 (-120) 22 Washington 18

After a year of turmoil featuring the Shanahan clan butting heads with franchise QB Robert Griffin, owner Dan Snyder decided that enough was enough and sent the Shanahans packing. In comes former Bengals OC Jay Gruden to lead the charge into 2014. Gruden brought in 28 year old rookie OC Sean McVay to assist, while keeping Jim Haslett as defensive coordinator. Interesting moves. A 28 year old rookie OC? Retaining a defensive coordinator whose units have been among the league’s worst the past four years in Washington? I don’t have high hopes for the Redskins this season, although Robert Griffin should at least have his athleticism back after having to deal with limitations coming off of ACL surgery last year. I’m not sure that is a good thing, however, as I saw him once again taking too many hard hits in the preseason and if he doesn’t change his style of play or learn to slide, he won’t last long. From a personnel perspective, this offense does appear to present some problems for opposing defenses. With a WR group that rivals the best in the league and features newly acquired WR’s DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts along with veteran Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed at TE, this is a difficult group to defend. Alfred Morris in the backfield is also an excellent, tough player. The offensive line does present some question marks but overall this should be a potent offense once they become proficient in the nuances of the new system.

The defense was just below average overall last season, primarily due to a pass defense that was often missing in action. The Redskins allowed 7.1 yps to a schedule of teams that gained 6.6 yps on average and if you have trouble defending the pass in today’s NFL, you are likely going to struggle. The offseason didn’t bring much in the way of help, other than 34 year old Ryan Clark coming over from the Steelers. The hope is that CB David Amerson and SS Bacarri Rambo can improve in their second seasons and that LB’s Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo can apply a consistent pass rush.

The Texans are another team in transition with new coaches and schemes on both sides of the ball. Bill O’Brien was hired after a successful run in a difficult position as head coach at Penn State for two years. Prior to that he served in various offensive coaching roles with the New England Patriots where he developed a rapport with QB Ryan Mallett, whom the Texans recently acquired via trade. As part of his new staff, he hired longtime NFL defensive minded head coach Romeo Crennel to coordinate the defense.

On offense the Texans brought in veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick from the Titans to start the season, but I’m not sure how long it will be before Ryan Mallett gets a shot. He is already familiar with the schemes O’Brien has implemented and would make for a quick transition. Fitzpatrick’s gun slinging mentality tends to cause fans to cringe every time he drops back and I have his projected turnover rate 5th highest among NFL starters entering this season. I expect that the offensive scheme will attempt to play to his strengths while minimizing his weakness in an effort to eliminate turnovers, however. O’Brien knows that there is some talent on this offense at the skill positions with WR’s Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins on the outside and Arian Foster in the backfield and he will try to distribute the ball to his playmakers. The offensive line should also be improved. Defensively, with the addition of Jadaveon Clowney, a talented defense will be even tougher to defend. With a unit that already features JJ Watt, a returning Brian Cushing, and some playmakers in the secondary, this defense could be very good by seasons end.

The Texans qualify in a 45-20-6 situation but my model only favors the Texans by -1.5. While this game will feature two teams trying to work out new systems in the early stages of the year, I’ll lean with the situation and call for a Texans win and cover.

Tennessee (+3.5) 24 KANSAS CITY 23

With a new coaching staff and a new season about to begin the Titans have a new attitude and a different vibe. New head coach Ken Whisenhunt brings credibility and competence to a staff that struggled with both last season. With him comes along a staff that appears to be filled with strong teachers, with the best holdover coaches remaining. New defensive coordinator Ray Horton brings along a resume of experience and a less predictable 3-4 system. Whisenhunt is known for his work with QB’s and helped shape the resurgence in Philip Rivers career in San Diego last year. He’ll have some work to do with Jake Locker this season but there is potential. If Locker can stay healthy he has a chance to play well this season behind what can be a pretty good offensive line, some ascending, young receivers in Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter, and a couple of decent RB’s. Last season with Locker in the line-up, the Titans charged out of the gate, winning three of their first four games with victories over the Steelers, Chargers and Jets. After a knee injury against the Jets knocked Locker out, the Titans ended up losing 8 of their last 12. Locker was able to return later in the season but ended up suffering a Lisfranc injury in the team's 27-29 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars and was lost for the remainder of the season. With Locker back this season and with better coaching around him, I expect a more cohesive offense in 2014.

On the other side of the ball, new DC Ray Horton will be more aggressive in his schemes and should have the LB’s that he likes to use to apply pressure as Shaun Phillips and Wesley Woodyard come over from Denver. The defensive line features DE Jurrell Casey but the front seven also has capable players in Derrick Morgan, Karl Klug and run stuffer Ropati Pitoitua. The secondary will miss their best CB last year, Alterraun Verner, who left via free agency to join the Tampa Bay Bucs, but they still have some talent in CB Jason McCourty and SS Bernard Pollard.

After cruising to a 9-0 start last season against a schedule of below average opponents, the Chiefs crashed back down to earth in their final seven games, going 2-5 when having to play the likes of the Broncos and Chargers. In fact, the Chiefs were 10-0 against .500 teams including their playoff loss to the Colts. My ratings were screaming for me to play against the Chiefs late last season for the three week stretch of losses to the Broncos (twice) and the Chargers after they started 9-0. I was glad we did because my numbers completely contradicted public perception of the Chiefs at the time, and we went 3-0 ATS in the process.

I don’t see things getting much better for the Chiefs entering 2014. Instead of the soft schedule they played last season, they now get the NFC West in addition to games in Pittsburgh and Miami. They are also dealing with new players on the offensive line and in the secondary, and still have a lack of real receiving talent on offense. They also had the largest turnover differential in the AFC and second in the NFL with a +18. Some regression to the mean is likely due.

This line seems to be a little off as my ratings favor the Titans by just less than a point but there are no situations in play. With what I believe might still be an overrated team entering 2014 in the Chiefs matched up with a team that is flying a little under the radar, I like the dog. I’ll call for the Titans to win outright in a minor upset.

PHILADELPHIA (-10) 31 Jacksonville 18

The Jaguars come into 2014 with a bit of momentum and higher expectations. After starting last season 0-8 and being outscored by an average of 11-33, the team looked and played differently after their bye week and finished the season winning four of their last eight. The improvement was real and should continue this season after the addition of several new pieces on both sides of the ball. To begin with, the offensive line was upgraded with the addition of LG Zane Beadles from Denver. The tackles (Joeckel and Pasztor) should continue to improve, but there are still questions at center and right guard. New RB Toby Gerhart comes over from Minnesota and should effectively replace Maurice Jones-Drew who departed for Oakland. The Jaguars drafted WR’s Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson in the second round and they should help to upgrade that position group as well. The question remains at quarterback with veteran Chad Henne being pushed by first round rookie and third overall pick Blake Bortles after a strong preseason. The Jaguars have maintained all along that Henne is their man and that they will let Bortles watch and learn but I’d be surprised if Bortles didn’t see some action this season. For the time being, Henne is more prepared to enter the season as the starter after spending last year in the system and with the experience of being an NFL QB for 6 years.

Where we should really see improvement this year, however, is on the defensive side of the ball. HC Gus Bradley has imported two former Seahawks to join him in Jacksonville with DE’s Chris Clemons and Red Bryant coming on board with experience in the scheme, while also adding miscast Steelers DE Ziggy Hood, who fits Bradley’s system well. Paul Posluszny was a Pro Bowl alternate last year and mans the middle while Dekota Watson was signed and promising rookie LB Telvin Smith drafted. They will add to what should be an improved front seven. And with second year players Gratz and Cyprien improving, the secondary should also be better.

In his first season as head coach, Chip Kelly transformed the Eagles offense with his unique blend of tempo and design. Like any good technician, his scheme elevated players by putting them in the best position possible to succeed. He took a QB in Nick Foles, who was a below average player his first year in the league, and transformed him into the QB with the best TD to interception ratio in league history at 27:2. This offense has some very talented players with an offensive line that is one of the best in the league and an excellent running back but there are some question marks at the receiver position this season after the loss of DeSean Jackson. How much will the Eagles miss Jacksons speed and game breaking ability? Much like the Nick Foles scenario, the scheme will reallocate production and spread it around, making the whole greater than the sum of its parts.

After a rocky start defensively last season, the Eagles came together late in the year after adjusting to the new system implemented by first year DC Bill Davis. After allowing an average of 34.5 points in their first four games of 2013, they only allowed an average of 20.8 points per game the rest of the way, the lone aberration being in a letdown spot in Minnesota where they let Matt Cassel carve them up for 48 points. They should continue to improve if newly acquired FS Malcolm Jenkins can elevate the play of the secondary and 1st round pick Marcus Smith can add some pass rush. Otherwise, this is a pretty solid group that includes a strong defensive line that only allowed 3.9 ypr against a schedule of opponents that gained 4.4 ypr on average after the first four games last season.

There are no situations in play here but my ratings favor the Eagles in this game by 12.8 points. While I see Jacksonville as an improved team this year that will get better every week, there will be early stage growing pains. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Jaguars play competitively early in this game behind an improved defense but I don’t believe the Jaguars offense, with a number of new parts on the offensive line and in the WR group, will be able to keep up with a well-coached and deftly schemed Eagles offense now in its second season. I’ll lean with the Eagles to cover the large number.

NY JETS (-5.5) 26 Oakland 17

On paper the Raiders have improved their talent level this offseason, but there are a lot of new additions on both offense and defense and too much instability at the QB position to project much improvement, especially early in the season. The problem, however, is if there isn’t much improvement early, this is a team that could find themselves having to deal with motivational issues and a coach in Dennis Allen that could be replaced. Because they have brought in so many veteran players, some past their prime, if losing becomes a habit early many of those veterans accustomed to winning could fall into the familiar despair that is representative of being an Oakland Raider the past decade plus. After all, this is a team that is just 53-123 the past 11 years that has amassed an 8-24 mark since Allen took over two years ago. Personnel decisions have rightly been questioned and this offseason was no exception. While many of the names look good on paper, some of the Raiders acquisitions since last season have been dubious, certainly on offense. On offense, they bought in a QB in Matt Schaub that is past his prime and immobile and a RB that has been dealing with injury issues and poor productivity the past two seasons in Jones-Drew. Meanwhile, they lost their best offensive lineman in LT Jared Veldheer and did not improve their WR group. After a poor offensive performance in their third preseason game coach Dennis Allen said, “I think it would be a lot easier if you could narrow it down to just one particular area,” Allen said. “There are a lot of areas that we’ve got to improve on in the passing game.” Apparently, there were so many that Allen has now announced that Derrick Carr will start Week 1 against the Jets at QB. Carr, a second-round pick from Fresno State, had a strong showing in the fourth preseason game, completing 11 of 13 passes for 143 yards and three touchdowns.

Defensively, the players the Raiders added this offseason make sense but there will likely be a learning curve with so many new additions. They should see improvement in their pass rush with LaMarr Woodley and Justin Tuck coming over from the Steelers and Giants, respectively. There should also be visible improvement in the secondary with Carlos Rodgers and Tarell Brown coming over from the 49ers. They drafted Khalil Mack with the 5th overall pick in this year’s draft and welcome back SS Tyvon Branch after he missed most of last season. This is a talented defense that will likely have to carry this team early.

On the other side of the field, The Jets have improved offensively but will still have issues on the back end of their defense. Geno Smith was in a tough spot in his rookie season, becoming the starting QB by default after Mark Sanchez injured his shoulder last preseason and was lost for the year. He never really had a chance with having to acclimate to his first season in the NFL, learning a new system and having a clear lack of offensive weapons around him. After a poor start, he progressed as the season wore on. In his first 12 games he threw for only 8 TD’s with 19 interceptions. In his final four games, he accounted for 7 TD’s with only 2 interceptions as the Jets finished the season winning three of their last four. By all accounts he has taken gigantic leaps this offseason, becoming much more comfortable in the offense and demonstrating leadership qualities on the practice field and in the building. He also has a number of new weapons around him, including WR Eric Decker and RB Chris Johnson. I expect the Jets offense to be improved this year.

In 2013 the Jets had the best defense in the league against the run with young talent all across the front line. They gave up just 89 yards at 3.5 ypr to a schedule of teams that gained 110 yards at 4.2 ypr on average. I don’t see much changing this season in that regard as all key players return. To truth is that they’ll have to be good to stand any chance of improving on last season’s 8-8 record because their secondary is in complete disarray. With top CB Dee Milliner hobbled by a high ankle sprain and projected starter Dimitri Patterson having been released after a bizarre AWOL scenario, the CB’s now consist of Darrin Walls and converted safety Antonio Allen, along with 2010 first round disappointment Kyle Wilson. The Jets are still holding out hope that Milliner will be well enough to start against the Raiders.

With the Raiders breaking in a new QB, RB, some offensive lineman and a host of new players on defense I see inevitable early growing pains for this team. In addition, they don’t match up particularly well with the Jets as I’m not sure rookie QB Carr will be able to exploit the broken down Jets secondary. The Jets have a stable and solid system on defense and an improving offense in their second year in OC Marty Mornhinweg’s system. No situations apply to this game but my model favors the Jets (-8.5). Not enough for me to pull the trigger but I’ll lean with the Jets to win and cover.

PITTSBURGH (-6.5) 24 Cleveland 17

It’s a new year and there is yet another new head coach of the Browns. This makes it an unbelievable 7 new head coaches in the past 10 years! Good luck, Mike Pettine. The truth is that he has some talent to work with in Cleveland and I expect that he will be able to maximize their defensive potential. For four years (2009-2012) he was the defensive coordinator of the NY Jets. Those four years the Jets fielded good defenses, including being #1 in 2009. The concern was whether or not that success was more a function of Rex Ryan having his hands on the defense, or if Pettine was truly responsible. After a year as DC of the Bills, the jury is still out. His defense did produce an AFC leading 57 sacks and a #4 rating in pass defense, holding teams that would normally gain 231 yards at 5.9 yps to only 204 yards at 5.3 yps. However, his rush defense wasn’t great as they allowed 130 yards at 4.6 ypr to teams that would gain 107 yards at 4.2 ypr on average. Overall, the Bills defense allowed around 24 points per game to a schedule of teams that scored 22 points on average. He does step into a pretty good situation, however, as the Browns have some talent to work with and a defense that was already pretty good against the pass. They did lose SS TJ Ward but he has been replaced by Donte Whitner, formerly of the 49ers. They also added LB Karlos Dansby from the Cardinals. Both are good players that will provide leadership. In the draft, they selected CB Justin Gilbert with the 8th overall selection and once he acclimates to the NFL he’ll pair with CB Joe Haden to make a formidable CB combination.

Offensively, the Browns have a couple of very good players on the offensive line in center Alex Mack and LT Joe Thomas and what should be a serviceable group otherwise. Their running back position has been upgraded as Ben Tate was signed as a free agent from Houston and they drafted Terrence West from Towson in the 3rd round. The passing game is suspect, however. With the one year suspension of WR Josh Gordon, they have lost their best offensive player and the league leader in receiving yards last year with 1,646. There aren’t very many other reliable options in the receiving game. And who will throw them the ball? Hoyer is the starter and is a slightly better option than the alternative at the moment. In Hoyer’s defense, he did play fairly well in limited action last season. In his two starts before he got hurt, he guided the Browns to wins against the Vikings in Minnesota and the following week at home against the Bengals. His 59.4 completion % and 5:3 TD to interception ratio were encouraging.

After a rash of preseason injuries last season the Steelers stumbled out of the gate, losing their first four games. They regrouped quickly enough, going 8-4 the rest of the way, but ran out of both time and luck at the end of the season. A Ryan Succop field goal attempt went wide right with 4 seconds left in the Chiefs final regular season game that, if made, would have sent the Steelers to the playoffs. This season Pittsburgh will look to capitalize on the momentum that they generated late last year and will be aided by the return to health of several players and the drafting of several others who may help. Offensively, the Steelers will benefit from a healthier offensive line along with the addition of former Titans head coach Mike Munchak as offensive line coach. They have playmakers on offense in the backfield with 2nd year RB Le’Veon Bell and the addition of LeGarrette Blount via free agency from New England. They also drafted speedy (4.26 40 yard time) Dri Archer from Kent State who may provide some explosive ability out of the backfield or on special teams. The offense will look to operate more often out of the no-huddle, which Roethlisberger prefers.

The Steelers hope that an infusion of young talent on defense will help to improve their disappointing 2013 performance. Creating turnovers is a priority. The Steelers have finished in the lower third of the league the last three years in takeaways and as a general rule, if you are not taking the ball away more than you are giving it away, you are losing. They now have a more athletic LB group with rookie Ryan Shazier joining second year player Jarvis Jones and 5th year player Jason Worilds. They also improved on the defensive line, bringing in Cam Thomas from San Diego and drafting Stephon Tuitt, who DC Dick LeBeau was raving about early in camp. The concern is in the secondary with a declining Ike Taylor, who has become a liability, and an aging Troy Polomalu.

Heading into Pittsburgh is a tall order for a team with new schemes and new personnel in key spots on opening day. No situations apply to this game and my model sees no value currently with Pittsburgh -6.0. I’ll lean slightly with the Steelers to cover based on the spot.

BALTIMORE (-1.5) 20 Cincinnati 16

After a disappointing end to a good season in their 10-27 home divisional round playoff loss to the Chargers last season, the Bengals lost both offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching jobs. The loss of both will be felt as they were clearly respected, but the Bengals are confident in their replacements. In fact, Zimmer tried to get his replacement, Paul Guenther, to join him in Minnesota. I’m not so certain about OC Hue Jackson, whose decision making ability comes into question as I recall the 2011 deal that brought QB Carson Palmer to the Raiders for 1st and 2nd round draft picks.

Offensively, the Bengals should field a solid offensive line flanked by quality skill position players and a dynamic playmaker in the backfield. QB Andy Dalton put together another solid year under center in 2013 but questions still remain, specifically around his play when the lights shine the brightest. Overall last season he put up very good passing numbers. He averaged 263 yards per game at 6.7 yps against a schedule of teams that allowed 239 yards at 6.3 yps, throwing 34 TD passes and 22 interceptions along the way. Those numbers are not inconsistent with a career average of 26.7 TD passes and 16.3 interceptions, albeit a bit higher in both categories. However, when we look at his playoff numbers a different story emerges. He is winless in three games, losing by an average of 11-25.7 with 1 TD pass and 6 interceptions. It’s only three games but those sorts of numbers offer reasons for concern. It does appear that he is primed for another good season with all of the weapons that he has at his disposal, and I expect this offense to come out firing.

I don’t put much stock in preseason action but if it provides any sort of indication, the Bengals defense appears to be ready for the start of the season. Cincinnati’s first-team defense allowed just four field goals in its three preseason games and appeared to be dominant at times. Their pass defense last year was among the best in the league, allowing just 204 yards at 5.1 yps to teams that would typically gain an average of 242 yards at 6.2 yps. The good news for Bengals fans is that this year they’ll have Geno Atkins back after losing him to a torn ACL last Halloween. Where they really missed him was in their run defense as the Bengals gave up an average of only 98 yards at 4.0 ypr against teams that would average 119 yards at 4.4 ypr with Atkins in the lineup. Without him, Cincinnati allowed 107 yards at 4.3 ypr against teams that would average 103 yards at 4.1 ypr.

After a disappointing season coming off of their Super Bowl win in 2012, the Ravens appear to have retooled a bit, beginning with the addition of former Texans head coach Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator after the incumbent Jim Caldwell accepted the head coaching position in Detroit. Along with Kubiak comes former Texan TE Owen Daniels to team with Dennis Pitta after missing most of last season with a hip injury. In addition, the Ravens signed former Panther WR Steve Smith and he should start alongside Torrey Smith. The offensive line provides some question marks and suspect play outside of Marshall Yanda and Eugene Monroe and is an area to monitor. In the backfield, RB Ray Rice is suspended for the first two games and will give way to Bernard Pierce who has been recovering from a concussion. They’ll need all hands on deck if they hope to improve upon their terrible offensive performance in 2013. They were well below average both rushing and passing the ball, while overall they were only able to muster 307 yards per game at 4.6 yppl against a schedule of teams that allowed 347 yards at 5.3 yppl.

The concern on defense is the state of the defensive backfield, in particular the corners. Projected starter Ladarius Webb has missed the entire preseason, while the other projected starter, Jimmy Smith has sat out the past two preseason games. The word so far is that they’ll play on Sunday and they will be much needed against the aforementioned Bengals offensive attack. Outside of the secondary, the front seven is solid with a very good LB group and the addition of rookies CJ Mosley and Tim Jernigan.

I like the Ravens to bounce back from a poor 2013 in this game with a statement win at home. Baltimore qualifies in a 45-20-6 situation while the Bengals qualify in a couple of negative situations that are 22-51-6 and 8-38-1. This is a good spot for the Ravens as they have a chance to put a poor 2013 behind them with a strong start against last year’s division winner. As long as the starting CB’s play on defense for the Ravens, my ratings favor them here by -1.3 points. Based on the situations, I like the Ravens.

ATLANTA (+3) 27 New Orleans 29

It’s been a productive offseason for the Saints as they scored well in both free agency and the draft. The 1st round selection of rookie WR Brandin Cooks should compensate for the loss of RB Darren Sproles (who left via trade to the Eagles) while the addition of S Jarius Byrd should help an already strong defense. Cooks was a semi-finalist for the Biletnikoff Award in 2012 and the winner in 2013 as he piled up 1,670 receiving yards, best in the FBS. He is expected to contribute in short order. Byrd is a three time Pro-Bowl and All-Pro player who has led the AFC in interceptions twice in his 5 year career and should solidify the back end of a defense that had only 19 takeaways last year, 29th in the league. These two additions could be the difference in taking the next step for the Saints this season. This is already a team with a strong core starting at the top with Coach Sean Payton and QB Dress Brees, two of the best in the league.

Last season the Saints offense was very good as usual driven by the excellent passing attack of Drew Brees, who commanded the #4 rated passing offense by my metrics. I don’t expect much of a drop-off in 2014 but there are some concerns about his offensive line with soon to be 36 year old center Jonathan Goodwin coming back after a few years in San Francisco and Evans and Grubbs missing some time in the preseason with back problems. Otherwise, the skill position players are above average with depth at the WR, TE and RB spots. Defensively, the Saints improved significantly in 2013 with most of that improvement coming against the pass. They only allowed 188 yards at 5.5 yps to teams that would normally average 217 yards at 6.1 yps and this season they get the aforementioned Byrd to pair up with 2nd year rising star Kenny Vaccaro. There is solid depth at corner as well as at the safety position. Up front, the defensive line is led by Cameron Jordan who registered 12.5 sacks last season but pressure will come from scheme and excellent secondary play as DC Rob Ryan designs opponent specific game plans.

On the other side, the Falcons are coming off of a season that they would rather just forget. With injuries and bad line play the Falcons were out of the playoff picture before Thanksgiving after a 2-9 start. They made some changes in the offseason in an effort to strengthen both offensive and defensive lines as they brought in RG Jon Asamoah and drafted LT Jake Matthews from Texas A&M in the first round. They also signed former Dolphins NT Paul Soliai and Chiefs DT Tyson Jackson, who should provide solid upgrades on the defensive line. They did lose LB Sean Weatherspoon to a ruptured Achilles tendon back in June, but they have had all preseason to adjust and he was a bit overrated to begin with so I don’t believe that they will suffer with him out. They do lose TE Tony Gonzalez to retirement and he will be missed as he was QB Matt Ryan’s security blanket. The good news is that they will get dynamic playmaker Julio Jones back this season and his presence will open up the passing attack with WR Roddy White on the other side.

This is a series that the Saints have dominated, racking up 13-3 SU and 9-7 ATS records since coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees arrived in 2006. However, most of these games have been generally tightly contested. Nine of the last eleven games have been within an 8 point difference and even in a down year for Atlanta both games last year were within 6 points. Both QB’s are primed for big seasons and I expect this to be another close game with defense taking a back seat unlike last year’s two tight, low scoring Saints victories. This game reminds me of the opener last year with the roles reversed. At that time the Saints were coming off of a down 7-9 year in 2012 in the wake of the Bountygate scandal while the Falcons were flying high entering the season after an NFC championship game loss to the 49ers. The Saints won that game 23-17 on a last minute pass breakup by Kenny Vaccaro in the end zone to seal the victory and I expect another close one here. The Falcons would qualify in several very good situations if they were the favorite (which they were early before money began pouring in on the Saints which has pushed this line from an opener of Atlanta -1.5 to where it is now with the Saints being favored by nearly a field goal). As a dog they don’t qualify and my numbers aren’t far off on this one (Saints -1.95) so it is a pass for me. I do like the spot the Falcons are in though, at home with a talented and improved team that has a chance to start the season off right with a big divisional victory. I’ll lean with the Falcons plus the points.

New England (-4.5) 25 MIAMI 19

Despite losing TE Aaron Hernandez in the offseason, not having TE Gronkowski for the first 7 games, and with a bevy of new receivers to throw to, Tom Brady and the Patriots somehow just kept winning to start the 2013 season, going 4-0 out of the gate. And then they lost DT Vince Wilfork after only 4 games, LB Jerod Mayo 2 games later and DT Tommy Kelly 2 games after that. All big losses. Mayo was their defensive signal caller, and on the field for practically every snap before the injury. But the Patriots just kept winning. All their way to a 12-4 record and another AFC Championship Game appearance. It’s a real credit to the coaching staff to be able to field a team year after year that competes, regardless of the circumstance and regardless of the injury situation. The scary part for the rest of the AFC is that the Patriots appear to have reloaded and are poised for another run in 2014.

Entering 2014 the Patriots defense looks to be much improved with the additions of CB’s Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner (suspended for the first four games), the return of Wilfork and Mayo and the ascension of LB Jamie Collins. Just adding Wilfork and Mayo back would make a huge difference. With both players in the lineup for the first 4 games last year the Patriots were allowing an average of 16 points per game to a schedule of teams that scored 20 points per game on average for a net difference of -4 (negative numbers are good on defense). Their run defense in particular during this time was very good as they allowed just 105 yards at 4.1 ypr to teams that gained 116 yards at 4.3 ypr. With both players out of the lineup after game 4, the Patriots allowed 24 points per game as their defense fell apart. During this time, they allowed 136 yards at 4.6 ypr to teams that only gained 107 yards at 4.2 ypr on average. Overall without Wilfork and Mayo, their defense allowed 392 yards per game at 5.6 yppl to teams that gained just 358 yards per game at 5.4 yppl on average. With those two coming back and the addition of Revis and Browner, I expect the Patriots defense to play well this year as they make their way back into the top half of the league.

Offensively, New England will have to deal with the recent loss via trade of G Logan Mankins but they obviously felt confident enough in the depth that they have on the offensive line to be able to pull it off. In addition to Gronkowski, who has now been given the green light, Brady should also have Amendola, Edelman and new Carolina castoff Branden LaFell. The trade for Mankins also brought in TE Tim Wright, a second year player from Tampa Bay who was productive as a rookie last season. In the backfield they have a stable of talented running backs to choose from after drafting James White from Wisconsin in the 4th round. He’ll split time with Vereen, Ridley and Bolden.

After a forgettable 8-8 season marred by the Richie Incognito/Jonathan Martin bullying scandal, the Dolphins have cleaned house on the offensive line, brought in a new offensive coordinator and are attempting to rebuild their image. The changes look good on paper but it remains to be seen how they will manifest once the regular season kicks in. To start, it looks like there will be a number of new starters on the offensive line in Week 1. Former Chief LT Brandon Albert was signed in the offseason and should be a big upgrade but C Mike Pouncey will be out for a while after having hip surgery in June. First round RT Ja’Wuan James will plug in at RT. There is some talent here but offensive lines generally perform better with repetition as they build chemistry. Add to the mix the fact that there is a new OC in former Eagles QB coach Bill Lazor who will attempt to implement much of Chip Kelly’s high octane scheme. Preseason and training camp results have been less than spectacular with HC Philbin quoted as saying, “Our offensive first group has to score more points,” after a disappointing offensive performance in the Dolphins third preseason game. In their final tune-up before the regular season, the Dolphins first-string offense was on the field for five drives, mustering just one field goal to go along with two punts, a fumble and an interception. With a number of new players to go along with a new scheme, I expect that this offense will take some time to gel.

Defensively, The Dolphins have talent but will be without DE Dion Jordan and SS Rashad Jones to start the season as they each serve four game suspensions. The Dolphins defense has performed well overall since DC Kevin Coyle arrived from Cincinnati in 2012 where he was the defensive backs coach and understudy to Mike Zimmer. In their final tune-up against the Cowboys in the third preseason game the defense played well overall, holding the Dallas offense to just six points in the first half when starters were on the field. Cowboys QB Tony Romo was only 10-18 passing for 87 yards and was sacked three times. The secondary has some new parts to break in, however, with oft-injured FS Louis Delmas coming over from Detroit and a declining Courtland Finnegan at CB. That, coupled with poor linebacker play could mean trouble for the Dolphins defense early in the season if they don’t get exceptional play out of their defensive line.

I don’t have any situations in play here and my number favors the Patriots by -4.4 so there is not much value to be had. I don’t like the way this game sets up for the Dolphins with lots of turnover in important places like the offensive line and secondary along with new coordination on offense and a brand new scheme. Matched up against a rock solid organization with an excellent quarterback and coaching staff, and with stable systems in place, the Patriots should win this game and cover.

DALLAS (+4.5) 25 San Francisco 27

It’s been a rough offseason for the 49ers after a third consecutive appearance in the NFC Championship Game last January. The bad luck actually began in that game as All-Pro linebacker Navarro Bowman tore his ACL and MCL and will miss an extended period of time at the beginning of this season. Then in April, LB Aldon Smith was at the center of a bizarre scenario at the Los Angeles International Airport. Recently, he was suspended 9 games for violating the NFL's personal conduct and substance abuse policies. Then on Sunday, San Francisco 49ers defensive end Ray McDonald was arrested on felony domestic violence charges. McDonald's arrest could eventually lead to an extended absence from the team. Add to the mix NT Glen Dorsey being out with a torn biceps suffered in preseason and a holdout from RG Alex Boone that just recently ended, and the 49ers are not entering the 2014 season as they had hoped.

The good news is that this is a well-coached team that has retained most of their key players on offense, while adding former Bills WR Stevie Johnson. Despite some poor offensive performances in the preseason, and with Kaepernick not looking very comfortable, I’m not overly concerned. The preseason can be fool’s gold as teams don’t do very much game-planning and much of the 49ers edge comes from their ability to scheme game plans fit for specific opponents. With very good skill position players and what should still be a solid offensive line, projections are for the 49ers to maintain an above average level of production offensively.

Defensively is where they will likely take a step back. Losing the players mentioned is going to be difficult to overcome. On top of those losses, the secondary can expect growing pains after replacing two starting cornerbacks as well as one of their defensive leaders in Pro Bowl strong safety Donte Whitner. Their replacements are solid, with CB Tramaine Brock ending up as one of the best players in their secondary a year ago. The other CB this year is the returning Chris Culliver, who during the 2012 season played well as the 49ers' primary nickelback before tearing his ACL last August and missing the 2013 season. Strong safety Antoine Bethea comes over from the Colts to replace Whitner, and may be a bit of a downgrade.

On the other side, the Cowboys are a team that should once again field a potent offense with all key components back, including QB Tony Romo, who returns after his second back surgery. Reports early in preseason were that Romo had some issues throwing long but it remains to be seen what, if any, multiple back surgeries will have on the 34 year old QB. Fortunately for Romo, he should have a very good offensive line protecting him with the addition of rookie first round draft pick Zack Martin being plugged in at right guard. In addition, Romo still has nearly the same cast of skilled position players around him with RB DeMarco Murray in the backfield, WR Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten at TE. If Romo can play at a similar level to what he has in the past, this offense will be difficult to stop.

It is apparent that the problems with the Cowboys lie on the defensive side of the ball and if improvement is not seen this season, Dallas will miss the postseason for a 5th consecutive year. The 2013 version was horrible, allowing 417 yards at 6.2 yppl to teams that would only gain 371 yards at 5.7 yppl on average, while giving up 27 points per game. Things are not expected to get much better this season as the Cowboys lost three of their best defensive players in DE DeMarcus Ware who signed with the Broncos, DE Jason Hatcher to the Redskins and LB Sean Lee to a torn ACL this offseason. They did sign former Bear DT Henry Melton, who is also returning from a torn ACL to help fill in, but he will have his work cut out for him. This is a defense with a lot of holes. Add to the mix the fact that CB Orlando Scandrick, their best player in the secondary, is now serving a four-game suspension for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing drug policy and there is real reason for concern for the Cowboys defense.

I don’t have any situations that apply to this game but my ratings favor the 49ers by only about two points. The 49ers are shorthanded on defense and have been dealing with a number of distractions recently while the Cowboys have been written off by the public. Meanwhile, the Cowboys offense matches up well with a banged up San Francisco defense and should be able to score some points. Although they have struggled this preseason, I expect the 49ers offense to be able to move the ball effectively against a banged up Dallas defense as well. There should be plenty of points scored in this one, and I’ll lean with the Cowboys to keep it close.

TAMPA BAY (-2) 22 Carolina 16

What an offseason it’s been for the Carolina Panthers. Wholesale changes have remade this roster along the offensive line, WR group, and in the secondary. To begin with, it looks like there will be several new starters along the offensive line after two of their best lineman (LT Jordan Gross and G Travelle Wharton) retired. Those losses leave them a bit thin, a bit inexperienced and not very good. Protecting Newton’s blind side is now LT Byron Bell, a below average player so far in his career. Trai Turner, a rookie from LSU is the new RG. Third year LG Amini Silatolu is back after being placed on injured reserve with a right knee last October. In addition, Carolina has a whole new set of receivers to throw to as they cleaned house and now have rookie first round draft pick Kelvin Benjamin and veteran Jerrhico Cotchery as their starters. To make matters worse, QB Cam Newton is coming off of ankle surgery and suffered a hairline rib fracture in the third preseason game. He has missed a lot of time this preseason and that will likely limit offensive cohesion early in the season.

The problems extend to the defense as well. Starting defensive ends Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson have been battling shoulder and hamstring injuries, respectively. Middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, last year's AP defensive player of the year, may start the season with a cast on his sprained right thumb. The secondary is almost all new as well with only second year player Melvin White returning. The safety positions are particularly concerning, with ex-Saint and coverage liability Roman Harper lining up at SS with former Charger and Cardinal Antoine Cason at FS.

Tampa Bay has had some offseason shuffling of their own, although much of theirs has been positive. Former Bears HC Lovie Smith took over and brought in former Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier to help coordinate the defense. He also hired former Cal OC Jeff Tedford to run the offense. However, Tedford recently underwent a medical procedure and wasn’t at practice on Monday. It is still not know if he will be able to join the Bucs for their Week 1 game.

Tampa also has a new QB as the Bucs signed Josh McCown after a successful stint as replacement for an injured Jay Cutler last season with the Bears. There have also been multiple changes along the offensive line, most recently the signing of former longtime Patriot Logan Mankins to shore up the left side. The right side still remains a work in progress. In addition, it sounds like Tampa Bay would like to play faster on offense as they would like to run a no-huddle, up-tempo, attack. "It's a little like in basketball," Smith said. "Do you want that slow-down approach? Or do you want up-tempo, running up and down? We want to be a fast team — period — in all phases, and this kind of leads to that (on offense), too." His explanation of why is also a good one, "Looking at it from the other side, most defenses in general would like to huddle up and make sure everybody is all on the same page," Smith said. "With an up-tempo offense, I think you gas the defensive line a little bit. A defense can't substitute as much, and as a general rule, most of the time you force defenses to be more basic with what they do. And it's just what we want to do, too. All those things kind of contribute a little bit to the no-huddle.”

On defense, the Bucs have solid pieces in place that Frazier and Smith will be able to utilize within their scheme. They will replace CB Revis with Alterraun Verner, and they have added DE Michael Johnson from the Bengals and DT Clinton McDonald from the Seahawks to bolster an already pretty good defensive line. The LB’s are a strength, but the secondary has question marks at the 2nd and 3rd CB positions.

The Bucs qualify in a 45-20-6 Week 1 situation while the Panthers qualify in several negative situations that are 22-51-6, 8-38-1 and 3-14-1. My model favors Tampa Bay by 4.2 points. I believe the Bucs are improved, are hungry and get a great shot at knocking off the bruised and battered division champs in the first game of the season at home. I like the Bucs.

DENVER (-7.5) 35 Indianapolis 23

Coming off of a very good season where the Colts captured their division and beat the Chiefs in one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history with their 45-44 Wild Card win, Indianapolis looks to take the next step in 2014. With the addition of WR Hakeem Nicks from the Giants and the return to health of Reggie Wayne and TE Dwayne Allen, QB Andrew Luck will have a bevy of weapons to utilize. That is if his offensive line can keep him standing. With all sorts of injuries to the offensive line this preseason, the Colts look like they will be forced to start A.Q. Shipley, who they picked up from the Ravens this weekend during roster cuts. Defensively, the Colts get some help up front as former Raven DE Arthur Jones joins 340 pound NT Josh Chapman and DE’s Cory Redding and Ricky Jean Francois to form a talented front line. With 2013 sack leader Robert Mathis serving a four game suspension, 2013 first round pick Bjoern Werner steps in to rush the passer. He will be joined by underrated Jerrell Freeman, and newcomer D’Qwell Jackson who comes over from the Browns to play the Mike LB role and provide leadership. The secondary loses SS Antoine Bethea who will be replaced by either former Bronco Mike Adams or former Eagle Colt Anderson. CB Greg Toler comes back from injury and has looked good this preseason. He’ll team up with CB Vontae Davis to form a solid cornerback tandem, with Darius Butler playing the nickel.

After their 8-43 Super Bowl loss last season to the Seahawks, Denver has made a number of moves that should make them a better team this season. They added two very good players in CB Aqib Talib from the Patriots and SS TJ Ward from the Browns. They should immediately help to upgrade a Broncos secondary that will have the benefit of playing with a strong pass rush in front of them. The combination of strong pass rush and good cover skills is a dangerous mix for opposing offenses and the Broncos should benefit from that synergy this season. That pass rush will come from returning LB Von Miller, one of the best in the business when healthy, as well as new DE DeMarcus Ware, formerly of the Cowboys.

The scary part is that Denver’s record breaking offense could be even better this year. Looking back at 2013 for a moment, this offense scored 606 points, breaking the record of 589 set by the New England Patriots in 2007. Denver's 76 touchdowns beat the previous record of 75, and Peyton Manning threw for 55 TDs, breaking Tom Brady's record of 50 set in 2007. Manning also threw for 5,477 yards, one yard more than Drew Brees threw in 2011, the previous record. This offense was literally off the charts good last season, and this season they benefit from the addition of former All-Pro Ryan Clady, while losing the weakest link in their line last season in G Zane Beadles. WR Emmanual Sanders will replace departed Eric Decker, and this passing offense shouldn’t miss a beat. As long as Wes Welker is available, that is. After suffering his third concussion in the last year, his availability for Week 1 was in question, then recently he was suspended for the first four games of the season after violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs.

The Colts qualify in a negative 22-51-6 Week 1 situation that plays against them here and my model likes the Broncos in this game by nearly 10 points. The Colts are in a tough spot with an offensive line that will have major issues matched up against a solid Broncos front. They also have to deal with a difficult environment and a hungry Broncos team that will be fired up to play on opening Sunday night at home. The loss of Wes Welker hurts, but the Broncos still have Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and tight end Julius Thomas, along with receivers like Cody Latimer and Andre Caldwell who will step up. With a motivated Peyton Manning playing against his former team on a national stage after an embarrassing loss in the Super Bowl, the only side for me is the Broncos minus the points.

Randall the Handle

BEST BETS

Vikings (0-0) at Rams (0-0)

Location, location, location. With the Rams residing in the NFC West, they are clearly the forgotten and most ignored team in what could be football’s best division. It doesn’t help when the team hasn’t had a winning record since 2003. Things appear even worse when St. Louis has lost its starting quarterback for the entire season. However, what helps us is the overreaction to all of this doom and gloom. The Vikings aren’t exactly world beaters. They come from a division of underachievers, yet finished last in the NFC North last year. En route to the basement, Minnesota failed to win a road game with an 0-7-1 mark. It’s also easy to forget that the Vikes gave up the most points in the NFL last season, a whopping 480 (30 PPG). Expect the Rams to be ready. They fared very well as hosts last year with a 5-3 mark — 5-1 if you excuse home losses to superior division mates San Francisco and Seattle. Look for St. Louis’ outstanding defensive line to be in fine form as it leads its team to victory. TAKING: RAMS –3½

Bills (0-0) at Bears (0-0)

The reports out of Buffalo are not very encouraging heading into this season opener, but as we’ve pointed out dozens of times, pre-season results are not a precursor of what is to come. Most of the negativity has focused on Buffalo’s offence — or lack thereof. While there could be some merit to it, the Bills still maintain a strong running game and they’ve added a dynamic rookie in WR Sammy Watkins to their offence. The Bears are supposed to be better. There’s no question that they own a dangerous offence with stars such as Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte. They also scored the second-most points in the league, but despite such firepower, Chicago finished just .500 on the season. The trouble was on defence where the Bears gave up a 31st-ranked 478 points. Management worked hard to fix the “D” this off-season, but it remains a work in progress. Meantime, Buffalo’s defence was solid last year as the Bills racked up 57 sacks and 23 interceptions, second-most in the league in both categories. TAKING: BILLS +7

Panthers (0-0) at Buccaneers (0-0)

Carolina 31 at Tampa Bay 13. Carolina 27 over Tampa Bay 6. Those were the two scores from last year’s divisional matchups between these two teams. The Panthers wound up 12-4 on the season. The Bucs 4-12. Tampa was crushed in its final three games last year to the combined tune of 98-44. The Panthers won 11 of their final 12 games with its only loss coming at New Orleans. So what has so dramatically changed to suddenly allow the Buccaneers to be favoured in this game? In last season’s clobberings, Carolina was favoured by 6½ and 7½ respectively. This makes no sense. Yes, the Panthers lost a couple of players from a year ago, but they still have the best defensive front in football, a unit that allowed just 241 points on the season. Only the Seahawks, with 231, held opponents in the 200s. We do expect the Bucs to be better, but they are still led by a 35-year-old backup QB on a new team. Far too much respect being given to the host here. TAKING: PANTHERS +2

THE REST

Saints (0-0) at Falcons (0-0)

Oddsmakers are commonly sharper than most. For example, last year entering Week 1, the Dolphins opened as a small favourite in Cleveland. By the time the game rolled around, the Browns were a 2½-point choice. Miami went on to win it by a 23-10 count. So when the Falcons opened as a 2-point chalk when lines were released this year, many jumped on the visiting Saints, and the line has now swung to New Orleans spotting 3. It’s only one tiny sampling, but we’ll trust the linemakers, especially against a Saints squad that has just two covers in its past 12 when leaving the Superdome. TAKING: FALCONS +3

Browns (0-0) at Steelers (0-0)

Tough to recommend the Browns as Cleveland will attempt to avenge years of domination by this host. It won’t be easy, as Pittsburgh could be a team on the rise after upgrading its offensive line and hiring Mike Munchak to direct it. However, the Steelers aren’t without issues as their secondary is aging and they still haven’t replaced the quality receivers Ben Roethlisberger used to count upon. Cleveland has a pop-gun offence, but early in the year, its talented defence is fresh and, in a divisional opener, that unit is capable of keeping this one within range. TAKING: BROWNS +7

Jaguars (0-0) at Eagles (0-0)

The Jaguars have been lost at sea for a long while, but they are making efforts to right the ship. While they have nowhere near the firepower of the host Eagles, Jacksonville’s defence is an improving group, namely on the defensive line. With coach Gus Bradley’s defensive acumen, Jacksonville is confident it can keep this one close. Off to an awful start a year ago, the Jaguars finished the season on a 4-4 run with their only double-digit loss in their final seven games occurring at Indianapolis. Philadelphia can be scary offensively, but it has to be, as its defence ranked dead last against the pass last year and 29th overall. TAKING: JAGUARS +10½

Raiders (0-0) at NY Jets (0-0)

The Raiders are funny. They pay QB Matt Schaub $8 million to come to Oakland, only to be banished to the bench for rookie Derek Carr. At least we can give the Raiders credit for not succumbing to the monetary pressure. Laughing loudest will be Jets coach Rex Ryan as he figures to dial up blitz packages for most of the afternoon. As the Jets’ head man, Ryan is 7-1 against rookie quarterbacks, holding them to a 48.3% completion rate and a 61.1 passer rating. Oakland’s offensive line is meek and young Carr had been known to struggle with the pass rush in college. Raiders aren’t quite ready for this yet. TAKING: JETS +5½

Bengals (0-0) at Ravens (0-0)

The Ravens caught lightning in a bottle two years ago when they won the Super Bowl. Things caught up to them last season, when they finished with an 8-8 record. Which is the real Baltimore team? We’re thinking the latter. The Ravens did little to upgrade their roster and they figure to have their hands full with a Cincinnati team that is littered with talent. Cincy’s defence excels at limiting the pass. Baltimore cannot rely on its ground game sans Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce suffering concussion issues. In addition, Ravens have the rival Steelers coming to town in four short days and may have to pace themselves accordingly. TAKING: BENGALS +2

49ers (0-0) at Cowboys (0-0)

The only way for his Cowboys to emerge victorious in this one is by way of a shootout. Dallas’ marshmallow defence cannot be expected to stop too many teams this year and, with some of San Fran’s defensive guys missing or departed, the ’Pokes have the offensive prowess to battle here. If the Cowboys are ever at their best, it seems to be when they are a host underdog, covering four of their past five, taking home points. You may recall Denver’s visit here last season as a 7½-point favourite and needing a game-ending FG to win 51-48. Similar approach earns a cover here. TAKING: COWBOYS +4½

Colts (0-0) at Broncos (0-0)

Andrew Luck has carried this Colts team for a couple of years, but this could be the season where things taper off. Indy’s receiving corps is suspect, with an aging Reggie Wayne returning after missing most of last year and Hakeem Nicks coming over from the Giants with leg issues. The running game is certainly not a strength, either. On defence, Indianapolis’ best pass rusher, Robert Mathis, is suspended, and we all know what will happen when Peyton Manning is given time to peruse the field. Denver has shored up its defence, while the offence will once again be dynamic. Not afraid to spot the touchdown-plus. TAKING: BRONCOS –7½

Redskins (0-0) at Texans (0-0)

The Texans will try to rebound from a shocking season a year ago, one that saw them go 2-14 while losing their final 12 games. While Houston has many good players, they will start the year with an awful quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick. Expect recently acquired Ryan Mallett to take the reins sooner than later, but until that happens, we cannot recommend Fitzpatrick spotting points. The Redskins will sic their skillful front seven on Fitz and that should create opportunities for the visitor. Washington’s offence is being questioned this pre-season, but we’re not buying it as the ’Skins are loaded with offensive abilities. TAKING: REDSKINS +3

Titans (0-0) at Chiefs (0-0)

Hard to believe the Chiefs won their first nine games last season. It was pretty much downhill from there as K.C. dropped six of eight, including a playoff game. Don’t be surprised to see the slide continue. Other than RB Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs offer little offensively. They have managed to out-stat their opponents in only seven of their past 28 games. Top receiver Dwayne Bowe (modest at best) will sit this one out due to suspension. Simply put, Kansas City will struggle to score. The Titans are solid throughout and have an improved coaching staff. Tennessee won’t be a sleeper team for long. But they are for this one. TAKING: TITANS +3½

Patriots (0-0) at Dolphins (0-0)

The spotlight moved from Bullygate to Johnny Manziel and, as a result, the Dolphins are happily flying under the radar. Conversely, the Patriots are always front and centre and oddsmakers are well aware of that. An inflation rate is commonly attached to the Pats. That could be one of the reasons that New England has covered only twice in its past 10 tries when spotting road points. That includes an 0-4 run last season. Miami made moves to improve its secondary, and with Pats’ uncertainties on O-Line, the Fish can create some troubles for their visitor. Tom Brady just 6-6 past 12 trips here. TAKING: DOLPHINS +5

Giants (0-0) at Lions (0-0)

The trust needle has automatically gone up since Jim Caldwell has replaced Jim Schwartz as coach of the untamed Lions. Caldwell brings the stability obtained from years at Indianapolis and the past couple in Baltimore. There is no void of talent in Detroit. Corralled properly, this could be a dangerous club. But changing a culture takes time and that makes spotting points in the price range a bit too risky right now. The Giants are being knocked by many, but the G-Men have a solid running attack and enough defensive experience to hang tough here. They won an overtime game on this field last season by a 23-20 count. TAKING: NY Giants +5½

Chargers (0-0) at Cardinals (0-0)

Both have scoring abilities, but Arizona’s stop unit is the stronger of the two, thus getting the nod here. San Diego’s pass defence was the worst in the AFC. Steps were taken to correct that, but adding free agents and draft picks to a new system takes time. The Cardinals are a 10-win team from a year ago and they are good on both sides of the ball. They won six of eight at home, with only losses to the 49ers and Seahawks, while allowing 17.8 points per game here. Cards are good out of the gate, having won four straight home openers. TAKING: CARDINALS –3

Lee Williams

Vikings vs. Rams
Play: Under 43½

We simply cant see either of these teams getting a lot of flow and rhythm with offenses lead by Cassel and Shaun Hill for St.Louis. Both of these QBS are basically game managers and we anticipate a lot of running from each team.Under is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games overall and we anticipate some improvement from what was a shaky Viking defense in 2013.T

Alex Smart

Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1

Alot of pundits are expecting the 2014 season to be a promising one for a Carolina Panthers squad coming off a 12-win campaign. But today Im betting some of these so called experts get a surprise. It must be noted that many sources have now confirmed that Panther prime time QB Newton wore a larger flak jacket at practice to give his ribs extra protection. Newton also underwent ankle surgery in the off season, and in my opinion is vulnerable here and game 1 and obviously less than 100%. Despite the media perceptions that make him out to be superman. He is admittedly the main cog in the Panthers offense, and extreme pressure from Tampa Bays under rated defense will be expected, as well as some crushing hits against a new look Panther offensive line. Tampa Bays New HC Lovie Smith Smith wants to establish a winning tradition at home and it starts Sunday and Im betting he brings out every weapon possible to scrape out a win. Quote: "It's critical for our fans," said Smith. "Its been a while since they've really been happy with the product that they've seen out at Raymond James. We've been working to do something about that and we hope that they would come out to see. We've talked a lot about what we're going to do, we would hope that they would come out and give us a chance. Once we get our fans in the stands, we've got to play good football, it's as simple as that."

Bottom line: The Bucs new QB Josh McGown is an experienced ball player, who has had success in the past. I expect his offensive line to give him the time he needs to succeed today, thanks to key defensive instabilities on the Panthers D line, as stalwarts Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy are dealing with nagging injuries. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers D as mentioned above will give Newton and some new/inexperienced WR options more fits than expected, which will limit the Panthers scoring chances. All in all, and with that said, I like getting points here with the home dog.

Key Trends:

Carolina 0-6 L/6 Game 1 of the season

TB is 7-2 ATS at Home in game 1 with revenge

The Dog in this series has failed to cover 6 of the L/7 times

Alex Smart's Featured Package

Steve Rosen

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: New England Patriots -4

I expect a blood bath in Miami and this is why.The New England Patriots have taken 11 of the last 13 AFC East Division titles and the 2014 squad looks poised to make it 12 of 14. The Miami Dolphins, who host the Patriots in the season opener on Sunday, are just trying to put a rough 2013 season behind them and move forward with the focus on the field. The Dolphins were impressively competitive last season but at the end of the day they are just the same old Dolphins that cannot get the job done!

Tom Brady dealt with an almost entirely new corps of receivers in 2013 and still threw for 4,343 yards. Brady will have some continuity among his receivers in 2014, presumably including the return of Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski, who did not play in any of the four preseason games but declared himself ready to go for Week 1. Expect the best from Brady this game and this entire season.There is a healthy defense that should benefit from the returns of nose tackle Vince Wilfork and linebacker Jerod Mayo. The defensive secondary has been an Achilles heel for the team in recent seasons, but the acquisition of Darrelle Revis gives the team its best cornerback since Ty Law and moves versatile players like Logan Ryan and Kyle Arrington into nickel and dime slots.Tannehill will have a very long and treatourous day. Brady is 17-7 in his career vs Miami and after this game will be umber 18!

Sean Higgs

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5

Browns have a decent defense. But Big Ben is 17-1 vs Cleveland. Hoyer or JFF, it won't matter. The Browns offense is terrible. I like the Steelers veteran guys. This is a great franchise that just plugs in the type of players they need and get wins. Pitt has won 10 straight at home vs Browns going 7-3 ATS in that span. If the Steelers think they are better than a 3rd straight 8-8 season, they must take care of business with a convincing home opening win.

Ross Benjamin

Cincinnati at Baltimore
Play: Baltimore -1

The Ravens have won their last 4 and 18 of the last 23-games against the Bengals. The Ravens have also gone a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6-games as a division home favorite or underdog of 6.0 or less, and when playing in their first 7-games of the season. The Bengals are a dismal 1-7 in their last 8, and 2-10 in the last 12 road games versus a division foe.

Any division home favorite of 3.0 or less that's playing in their regular season opening game, and they won 8 or more games in the previous season, has gone 17-1 SU&ATS since 1990.

Ross Benjamin

Jacksonville @ Philadelphia
Play: Jacksonville +10.5

When strictly assessing this game on paper this appears to be an absolute gift in regards to the home favorite. However, the last I checked games weren't played on paper, and if it looks to go to be true in sports wagering, then most times than not it is. The Jaguars finished last season by going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a road underdog, and won 3 of those 5-games outright. The Eagles are a dismal 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 as a home favorite of 7.5 or more.

Any away underdog of 8.5 or more that's playing in their season opener, and they won 4 or more games in the previous season, versus an opponent that won 15-games or less in the previous season, has gone 13-1 ATS since 1988. The underdog has also managed to win 6 of those 14-games outright.

Wunderdog

New Orleans @ Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta +3

The Atlanta Falcons are going to be better this season, but just how much better? The oddsmakers have made them a smaller odds favorite to win the NFC South, ahead of Carolina, so that should be a tip off right there. When you consider that since the inception of the NFC South in 2002, no team has ever won the division two straight seasons. Atlanta suffered severely from the injury bug and finished 4-12 last season. You might look around and say that they didn't really do much to upgrade their team, but let's not forget that a healthy version (Julio Jones, Roddy White) of this similar Atlanta team went 13-3 in 2012. While I think 13-3 would be a big stretch, this is going to be a playoffs team, barring a repeat of injuries to key players. The Atlanta defense gave up 21 or more points in all but one game last season, while in 2012 they allowed fewer than that nine times. The defense will be much better this season. The New Orleans offense will miss Darren Sproles this season, especially early on before adjustments are made. The Saints were an offensive machine at home last year, scoring 34 points per game. The road was an entirely different story where they averaged a modest 18.3 ppg and never topped the 27 point mark. Atlanta held them to 17 in Atlanta and their lowest output of the season at home just 23. The Falcons are better and they have handled this vaunted Saints offense in the past, especially in this building. New Orleans is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight on the road and have played UNDER in their last six on the road, as well as UNDER in their last five in Atlanta. Play Atlanta and the UNDER.

SPORTS WAGERS

Buffalo +7 over CHICAGO

It will soon become obvious as to what our approach is in Week 1. We’re playing against popular teams that come into the season overhyped and overvalued. That applies to the Bears. Chicago is the trendy pick to win the NFC North while also being another one of those fantasy football gold teams, as Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte and Jay Cutler are expected to put up monster numbers this season. That may all come to pass but you’ll be paying a premium to wager on the Bears in Week 1 and likely beyond, which is something we seldom recommend.

There is virtually no hype whatsoever surrounding Buffalo. The Bills stumble into this season after an unimpressive preseason. Sammy Watkins has sore ribs and EJ Manuel's terrible preseason has forced the team to turn to a $5 million backup plan in Kyle Orton. However, we’re not going to put much emphasis on any preseason record or performance. What we know for sure is that the Bills are deep on both lines. They could potentially be a great running team, which will open up the passing game. Expectations for the Bills are low while expectations for the Bears are high. Chicago’s defense, once feared, is no longer at that same level. The market has moved this number from +6½ to +7 and that’s a nice number to be on for a Bills team that is well-positioned to stay well-within this range.

Oakland +5½ over N.Y. JETS

Not long ago it looked like the Jets’ Week 1 starters at cornerback would be Dee Milliner and Dimitri Patterson. So much for that plan. Coach Rex Ryan announced that Milliner won't be playing against the Raiders. Milliner, the ninth overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, has been held out of practice since suffering a high-ankle sprain on Aug. 10. Patterson won't be playing in the game because he's no longer on the team. That means New York's starting corners will likely be Antonio Allen and Darrin Walls. The two defensive backs have four career starts between them at cornerback. Geno Smith is still unproven at QB, yet bettors are flocking to lay points with the Jets. What we’re suggesting is that it’s not that the public is enamored with New York but more a case of public money being fed up with Oakland. Furthermore, the Raiders were only 1-7 on the road last year (4-12 overall) while the Jets posted a 6-2 mark at home. Based on that and based on the public’s indictment of the Raiders, we get a decent number here on the dog.

The Raiders signed a host of veteran talent in free agency, including QB Matt Schaub and DE Antonio Smith from the Texans, along with DE Justin Tuck from the Giants, as well as several other veterans. In the draft they seized OLB Khahil Mack with the #5 pick, and QB Derek Carr in the 2nd round. If the Raiders can pull all of these new players together, and make them work, their foundation of talent could make them the surprise team in 2014. The Raiders are going with rookie Derek Carr who has looked sharp in meaningless preseason play. They have a running back duo of Maurice Drew Jones and Darren McFadden, two guys that have shown flashes of brilliance in the past and who will both be playing with huge chips on their respective shoulders. We’re not suggesting that the Raiders are going to be a factor but we are suggesting that Derek Carr might be the best QB this team has employed in years and if he gets off to a good start, momentum can carry this veteran team a long way. The Jets were favored three times in 16 games last year. They were favored by three or less in all three games and now they’re being asked to spot a number that they have not spotted since December of 2012 when they were a 6-point choice over Arizona. The Jets won that game 7-6 and while they do possess a great defense, they have many injuries and unanswered questions and they don’t deserve to be in this price range just yet. Upset possibility.

ATLANTA +3 over New Orleans

As we look at the first Sunday of the year in the NFL, we’ll apply our buy-low, sell-high angle to several teams. Week 1 lines are largely based on last year’s results, which works to our advantage. With free agency, coaching changes, trades and all the turnover in personnel in the NFL, it provides us with several good opportunities. Public bettors are likely to bet against last year's bad teams early in the season, which causes the odd makers to react by moving point spreads toward the perceived better team in each matchup. That helps to create added value on perceived bad teams and it’s something we’ll look to take advantage of.

Does anyone give the Falcons a chance here? When the lines first came out in early summer, the Falcons opened as a 2-point favorite but the money that poured in on the Saints caused that number to move five points in the Saints’ favor. With fantasy football being so popular and the Saints being considered “fantasy gold”, New Orleans now becomes one of, if not the most popular team in the NFL. The Saints boast one of the most powerful offenses that returns intact with all coaches and players and the only difference is a defense that should be even better. There is more hype on the Saints this season than just about any team in the NFL, which makes it extremely difficult to pull the trigger against them in the first week with an Atlanta team that went 4-12 last year. Furthermore, Atlanta has lost five of its last six games at home to New Orleans. The entire betting world is spotting the points and to us, that’s a huge red flag.

The Falcons lost both of their hot wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones last season to injury. They will both be returning this year. They also added OT Jake Matthews in the draft to give Matt Ryan some needed protection. In the draft they also picked up a free safety, a defensive end and three outside linebackers to strengthen their defense. They also drafted a running back (Devonta Freeman) to share the carries with starter Steven Jackson in the offense. Despite the injuries to many of his weapons in 2013, Matt Ryan quietly had a tremendous season. He passed for 4515 yards and 26 touchdowns while rarely getting to use Roddy White or Julio Jones. Home dogs in Week 1 are almost always live and with Atlanta’s stock so low and New Orleans’ stock so high, this becomes the best buy-low, sell-high value bet of the week. If you are on board with this wager, wait until late Sunday morning to make it because we are almost sure to get 3½ or 4. We’ll update this one late Sunday morning with our official wager.

Carolina +129 over TAMPA BAY

The Panthers are featured in our over/under win totals (we went under 8½) for the season but we can’t let that prevent us from playing them when the situation warrants it. Carolina opened up in June as a -1 point favorite but money started coming in on the Buccaneers in early August and it hasn’t stopped since. So why all the love for the Bucs? Well, the Buccaneers plowed the coaching soil and brought in Lovie Smith for head coach and Jeff Tedford as the new offensive coordinator. Tedford was the long-time head coach of the Cal Bears and was noted as a quarterback guru with Aaron Rodgers his crowning glory. That’s a nice start for the Bucs but it’s likely going to take some time to make it all work. Josh McCown is the new starter which seems a curious move since most teams would not elect to rebuild around a 35-year-old career back-up on his fifth NFL team while the younger Mike Glennon sits on the bench and assumes the #2 role again. Frankly, we don’t see an improvement on either side of the ball for these Bucs but the early line movement suggests that the public and or/media does.

That work in progress offense for Tampa is up against it here against a Carolina team that knows a thing or two about defense. The concern for the Panthers is that Cam Newton exploded on the scene as a rookie but has cooled down the last two years. He ran for 585 yards and five scores in 2013 but only passed for 3379 yards and 24 scores to a receiver corps that no longer exists. Newton’s decline in passing is expected to continue now that Brandon LaFell is in New England and Steve Smith went to Baltimore. The Panthers did draft Kelvin Benjamin but the rest of the receivers seem to have been picked up at the end of the day from a garage sale. Still, with Tampa’s poor secondary and many other questions, we’re leaning to the Panthers here in a big way. Newton is dangerous with his legs and he could have one of those rare 300 + yards passing day. These Bucs still suffer from many afflictions and they have no business laying weight to a team with a far superior defense than they possess. Panthers outright.

ST. LOUIS -3½ over Minnesota

Minnesota is gaining steam in the market while the Rams are losing steam and that sets this one up nicely for Rams’ backers. We’re one of them. The Vikings start anew with the Bengals old defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer now leading the show in Minnesota. He tabbed Norv Turner to run the offense and that usually brings good things to bear for running backs and tight ends if not the entire team. But the personnel remained the same other than drafting Teddy Bridgewater with their 1.32 pick. Christian Ponder dropped to #3 on the depth chart while Matt Cassel is the starting quarterback for now. Bridgewater was genuinely impressive in preseason and will become the starter at some point. That makes Cassel a lame duck of sorts but expect Bridgewater to get the call once the season starts to head the wrong way. The Vikings don’t travel well and went 0-7-1 last year away from home. An all new offensive scheme means the first road game is likely to be a challenge for the Vikes particularly against a solid defense like the Rams.

We’re pretty sure that the money coming in on the Vikes is more about the public fading the Rams after St. Louis lost their #1 QB, Sam Bradford for the year. The loss of Bradford sent the Rams scrambling but finding nobody that attractive in free agency. They are now relying on Shaun Hill, who is on his fourth NFL team at the age of 34 and in his 14th year. HC Jeff Fisher says he is committed to Hill but mostly from a lack of alternatives. Austin Davis is the #2 quarterback but has no NFL experience in his two previous years in the league. When a key player like Bradford goes down it instantly gives the players a chip on their shoulder because they get written off by the media and want to prove everyone wrong. That’s the mentality for the Rams in Week 1 and we’ll look for the defense to step up big and provide great field position throughout. Remember, the Vikings defense was one of the very worst last season and we don’t see where they have improved. An overreaction by the market to the loss of Bradford has us spotting the points.

Cleveland +6½ over PITTSBURGH

The new era begins for the Browns in what recently has been the annual purge of everybody and everything. Realtors must love the Browns. Mike Pettine comes over from the Bills where he was the defensive coordinator and he tabbed Kyle Shanahan to run the offense as he did in Washington where he was last run out of town in their own purge. There has been so much change, again, that it is hardly fair to establish any expectations with so much unknown. The Browns lost 20-7 in Pittsburgh last year. Those Browns seemed better than these Brownies. Cleveland's offseason and preseason was dominated by negative press. Bettors have reacted by jumping all over Pittsburgh, causing this number to move up from its opening line of +5 to its current line of +6½. Expect +7 by game time so wait until Sunday to make this wager because the public wants no part of this circus in Cleveland. It all looks ugly for the Brownies but once again the media blows everythig out of proportion and that greatly affects public perception.

That leaves bettors grabbing for Pittsburgh. You know, the same Steelers that ended 8-8 last year with very few exceptions. Ben Roethlisberger gets worse every year, not better. Long been one of the most sacked quarterbacks in the league, the Steelers are moving to a more no-huddle offense this year, which helps up the tempo and slow down the rush. The league has caught up to Pittsburgh and to Mike Tomlin. Tomlin didn’t get much help in the off-season. He still operates a team with very few upgrades. Tomlin’s coaching decisions get worse every season because the team he coaches gets worse. Big Ben is not like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or other elite QB’s in that he doesn’t spend the time in the film room trying to improve his own game or the overall play of the team. Said one former backup QB, “Roethisberger doesn’t even look our way in practice. He’s not very approachable and isn’t interested in helping. He’s the first one out when practice ends”. That’s not the first time we’ve heard stuff like that about Big Ben. Contrary to public belief, the Steelers are not the same model franchise that they’ve been since the 70’s. They’ve been in regression mode for three years running and it starts in the front office and runs deep from there. What we have here is a gross overreaction to Cleveland’s offseason and preseason shortcomings but Cleveland still has a loaded defense and a very capable QB in Brian Hoyer. This has to be considered one of the premier buy-low/sell high propositions on the card and we’re all over it.

King Creole

Patriots / Dolphins Under 46.5

It wouldn't be a Week One on these pages without my dog Speedee going UNDER in a Miami Dolphins game! He did it in 2012 (Miami / Houston UNDER winner)... and last year too (Miami / Cleveland UNDER winner). And why not? EACH of the last four games in this New England / Miami series have gone UNDER the Total, with an average of only 38.8 total PPG.

Not only that, but this is another Week One game in which the road team is favored. And we always look to Go LOW in these games. NFL Week One road favorites (Patriots) have gone 3-17 O/U since 1999 when the OU line is 45 > points. There's also a subset (mentioned in Saints / Falcons game) that's gone 0-12-1 O/U on SUNDAYS. The PATRIOTS have started the season on a LOW-scoring note as of late. They've gone 0-4 O/U in the last two years in Games ONE or TWO (avg margin of -9.1 ppg). And of course, the DOLPHINS have gone 1-6 O/U in GAME ONE in the last 7 years (35.6 ppg). Next up, we query the database for AFC East Division games for a road fav with a fairly high OU line. 2-14 O/U since 1987: All AFC EAST DIVISION road favorites of points vs a fellow division opponent. Final score in hot South Florida: 24 to 17.

Ben Burns

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens

The more and more I thought about it, the Ravens look like a pretty good value at home this week vs. the Bengals. Especially now that I can grab them as a Pick Em!

That's because they are 9-0 SU/8-1 ATS as home chalk of three points or less. In the past, this has been a very good team at home for John Harbaugh. Just last year, they went 6-2 SU at M&T Bank Stadium (just 2-6 SU on the road).

Cincinnati probably takes a step back this year due to the loss of both coordinators. Like most, I'm still not ready to go "all in" on QB Andy Dalton, who has never won in three visits to Baltimore by the way. He's thrown 7 interceptions and just three touchdowns in the three losses. The Bengals are like the Ravens in that they are strong at home (8-0 last regular season), but not so much on the road (3-5 SU).

Back to the Ravens home dominance, they are 12-0 SU at home in the first four weeks of the season under Harbaugh. Again, that makes them quite attractive in the current price range.

Homefield advantage is the difference maker in this one. Why wouldn't it? The home team has won and covered four straight in this AFC North rivalry.

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