Jack Jones
Houston Texans -3
Washington went 10-6 in 2012 under Mike Shanahan by winning each of its final seven games to capture the NFC East crown. It would lose starting quarterback Robert Griffin III to an injury in the playoffs, and he just wasn’t the same player when he came back last year. He would struggle for much of the season as the Redskins wound up going just 3-13 for a last-place finish within the division. Now, it will be up to former Cincinnati offensive coordinator Jay Gruden to try and turn things around for Griffin III and company in 2014.
Houston had won the division in 2012 with a 13-3 record and was a clear Super Bowl contender heading into 2013. After a shaky 2-0 start, it was clear that there were problems with this team, and things escalated quickly. Indeed, the Texans would lose each of their final 14 games of the season to finish with the worst record in the NFL at 2-14. The only positive that came from that was the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, which they used on Jadeveon Clowney. Bill O’Brien comes over from Penn State and should inject new life into the franchise in his first year on the job in 2014.
The reason the Texans were a Super Bowl contender heading into 2013 was because they had won a combined 24 games over the previous two seasons and won a playoff game in each. They had a very good team last year, but then injuries and bad breaks haunted them for the entire season. They were nowhere near as bad as their 2-14 record would indicate. In fact, they ranked 11th in the league in total offense (347.2 ypg) and 7th in total defense (317.6 ypg), actually outgaining opponents by an average of nearly 30 yards per game.
Houston went an NFL-worst 2-9 in games decided by a touchdown or less, had the worst turnover differential (-20) in the league, and gave up the second-most points (38) in the NFL from turnovers on offense that resulted in either defensive touchdowns or safeties. Five of those close losses came to the likes of the Seahawks, Chiefs, Colts, Cardinals and Patriots, who all won 10 or more games last year. They showed that they could play with the best teams in the league, but they just couldn’t get it done late in games.
The offense has all the pieces to be great. O’Brien has worked wonders with quarterbacks in the past. He got the most out of Matt McGloin and Christian Hackenburg at Penn State, and the only year he was the offensive coordinator in New England, Tom Brady had the best season of his career. That’s why Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has plenty of starting experience in this league, will succeed. He has plenty of weapons to get the ball to outside in Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, and he has a healthy Arian Foster to hand the ball off to.
Houston’s defense will be one of the best in the league this season. J.J. Watt is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL, and now he’ll have Jadeveon Clowney opposite him. Opponents cannot double-team both of these guys, so one or both are in line for monster seasons. Linebacker Brian Cushing returns from injury and is a critical part of this defense. With Kareem Jackson and Jonathan Joseph as lock-down corners, the Texans have all the pieces to be the top stop unit in the league, just as they were back in 2012 after ranking 7th last year.
Griffin III just has not looked comfortable as a pocket passer. That’s what he has to become now because he cannot run as often as he did as a rookie because he is too much of an injury risk. Even long-time Redskin Joe Theisman has been calling for Kirk Cousins to replace Griffin III as the starter. He sees how badly Griffin III is struggling, and he’s not afraid to voice his opinion on it because it’s the truth. Things won’t get any easier for Griffin III against Watt, Clowney and company in the opener.
The Redskins ranked 31st in the league in scoring defense a year ago, allowing 29.9 points per game. Washington went 1-7 straight up and 2-6 against the spread on the road last season, getting outscored by nearly 10 points per game away from home. I expect the Texans to roll at home Sunday.
Steve Janus
Baltimore Ravens -1
After a mediocre 8-8 finish last year following their Super Bowl Championship, the Ravens enter 2014 highly undervalued. Cincinnati on the other hand is getting a little too much respect. The Bengals suffered two huge blows in the offseason when offensive coordinator Jay Gruden and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer accepted head coaching jobs with other teams. These two have been critical to Cincinnati's success during their three straight playoff appearances and division title last year.
While Baltimore will be without running back Ray Rice, I still like their chances of moving the ball against the Bengals. The Ravens have a capable backup in Bernard Pierce and have added in some help in the passing game with the additions of veteran tight end Owen Daniels and wide out Steve Smith.
They also have a healthy Dennis Pitta at tight end after he played in just 4 games last year. This is going to allow Torrey Smith to return to being an explosive option down the field and don't forget about second-year wide out Marlon Brown, who had 49 catches for 524 yards and 7 TDs as a rookie.
One of the biggest moves the Ravens made this offseason that I don’t think is getting enough credit, is their trade for center Jeremy Zuttah, who is a major upgrade over Gino Gradkowski.
The biggest key here is that this is a division home game and the Bengals have simply not been good on the road against their AFC North rivals. Cincinnati lost all 3 division road games last year and are just 2-10 against division foes over the last 4 years.
Key Trends - Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games during Week 1 and 16-7 in their last 23 as a home favorite of 7-points or less.
Marc Lawrence
Washington Redskins vs. Houston Texans
Play: Washington Redskins +3
Edges - Redskins: 4-1 ATS Game One, and 8-2 ATS away with revenge, and 7-3 ATS vs AFC South opponents. Texans: 1-7 ATS home favorites vs NFC opponents, and 1-7 ATS vs NFC East opponents, and 1-6 ATS home vs opponent with revenge. With the Redskins having outgunned foes an average 22 PPG the second half of the season, despite going 0-8 SU in those games, we recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.
Tony Karpinski
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -7
Left tackle Joe Thomas whose quickness and strength are some of his amazing attributes, can at times actually be beaten around the edge on a speed rush. And this can cause a problem for Hoyer. Hoyer still needs to work on his accuracy, but he really wasn't so bad, and has proven he can win games as he went 3-0. Pittsburgh is loaded with a new look of players who can all play. They can pass better than expected and Roethlisberger has been excellent at home, even though they tend to not throw the ball as much in Pittsburgh. The main RB in Pittsburgh, Le'Veon Bell, will play more battle ready and hammer the ball harder. I expect him to get his 20 carries, a couple TDs and 85 YDs. Pittsburgh just has too much size and too many weapons and should win by double digits on Sunday!
Jimmy Boyd
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2½
I'm not big on the Panthers at all this season, as I look for them to take a major step back after last year's surprise campaign that saw them go 12-4 and win the NFC South.
Due to salary cap restraints, Carolina wasn't able to much of anything in free agency, which is a big reason why I'm expecting this tame to regress. The Panthers lost both starting left tackle Jordan Gross and starting left guard Travelle Wharton to retirement, were unable to re-sign their top three wide outs and lost 3 of their 4 starters in the secondary.
On top of that, this team is dealing with some serious injuries going into Week 1. Starting quarterback Cam Newton had offseason ankle surgery and suffered several ribs in preseason. He’s likely to play but doesn’t figure to be 100%. Stud middle linebacker Luke Kuechly will be playing with a cast on his right thumb and defensive end Charles Johnson is nursing a hamstring injury.
Tampa Bay on the other hand enters 2014 with a lot of optimism after adding in Lovie Smith to be their head coach, which I feel was one of the more underrated coaching moves this offseason. Smith and new defensive coordinator Leslie Frasier figure to take a talented Buccaneers defense to the next level. Tampa Bay also added in veteran quarterback Josh McCown, beefed up their receiving corps by drafting Mike Evans with the 7th overall pick and get back talented running back Doug Martin after he played in just 6 games last year.
I know the Panthers swept the season series last year with the Buccaneers, but these two teams have alternated season sweeps each of the last 5 years. There's simply too much value on Tampa Bay laying less than a field goal at home in a division matchup.
Rob Vinciletti
Minnesota Vikings vs. St. Louis Rams
Play: Minnesota Vikings +3½
The Rams have failed to cover 17 straight times in weeks 1-3 and have lost 4 of 5 vs NFC North teams. It may take then awhile to settle in with Qb S. Hill. The Vikings won big the last time they were here and will have be in this one throughout. Take the Minnesota Vikings Vikings here tonight. On Sunday in week 1 action the 6* Opening Week 27-1 system play takes center stage along with an early triple system dog, a 100% totals system along with MLB. Football has started off fast against this season and coming in we were 59 games over .500 the last 6 seasons. Jump on now and out the most devastating league wide data in the industry on your side today.
Jimmy Adams
Minnesota Vikings vs. St. Louis Rams
Play: St. Louis Rams -3
With the news of Sam Bradford being out for this contest, books are getting pounded with Minnesota money. Bradford may be a bigger household name than Shaun Hill, but if you look into the advanced metrics stats you’ll find that Bradford isn’t any better. Hill has a better career record as well as QBR. He may not be able to throw the ball as far as Bradford, but he makes better decisions and is an equally effective quarterback. The switch is certainly not worth a 3 point line move, which we saw swing in our favor.
In the preseason we saw a very physical team in the Rams. They’re a hardnosed, defense first squad that actually has the chance to be one of the best D’s in the league this season. The Offense will look to run first and keep things conservative. Many experts have St. Louis as a sleeper team coming into the year, and I can’t say I disagree with them.
As for the Vikings, don’t expect too much from them this season. First year Head Coach Mike Zimmer is highly regarded, but it will take time for him to implement his system as well as get a grasp on what it takes to be a head coach. He’s also a defensive minded guy, so this less than stellar offense may be at a bit of a disadvantage. Minnesota has QB distractions and doesn’t have enough talent on either side of the ball to pull this one out. The line moved in our favor in a big way so let’s look to take advantage.
Tom Grassi
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -7
The Browns have some issues. First, they were looking for improvement at QB but both Hoyer and Manziel didn’t look very good in the preseason.
They also have big problems at with their receivers with the suspension of Josh Gordon. Their defense is supposed to be improved but they also looked very suspect in the preseason. And they have a new head coach. Other than that the Browns are in good shape!
For Pittsburgh they’re looking to have a much better start than last season when they dropped their first four games. And what a better opponent to start the season than the Browns. They own Cleveland at home winning 19 of the 21 games since 1992. They’re not bad against the line with a 14-7 ATS record in those 21 games.
Cleveland might get better when their schedule softens up a bit later in the season, but early on it’s going to be a tough go. Pittsburgh beats up Cleveland again.
Oliver Alonso
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2½
A lot of pundits are expecting the 2014 season to be a promising one for a Carolina Panthers squad coming off a 12-win campaign. I do not think so. It must be noted that many sources have now confirmed that Panther prime time QB Newton wore a larger flak jacket at practice to give his ribs extra protection. Newton also underwent ankle surgery in the off season, and in my opinion is vulnerable here and game 1 and obviously less than 100%. Despite the media perceptions that make him out to be Superman. He is admittedly the main cog in the Panthers offense, and extreme pressure from Tampa Bays underrated defense will be expected, as well as some crushing hits against a new look Panther offensive line.
Tampa Bays New HC Lovie Smith Smith wants to establish a winning tradition at home and it starts Sunday and Im betting he brings out every weapon possible to scrape out a win. The Bucs new QB Josh McCown is an experienced player, who has had success in the past. I expect his offensive line to give him the time he needs to succeed today, thanks to key defensive instabilities on the Panthers D-line, as stalwarts Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy are dealing with nagging injuries. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers D as mentioned above will give Newton and some new/inexperienced WR options more fits than expected, which will limit the Panthers scoring chances.
Carolina is 0-6 in last 6 openers. TB is 7-2 ATS at Home in last 9 openers with revenge. The Dog in this series has failed to cover 6 of the last 7 times.
SPORTS WAGERS
Baltimore -102 over TAMPA BAY
Bud Norris posted a near-4 ERA and some very average outings before the All-Star break. He has been a lot better ever since with 8.5 K’s/9, 2.2 BB/9, and a 47% groundball rate. Those gains would be more noticeable if not for an unlucky 35% hit rate. Norris’s surge in strikeouts is supported by his 10% swing and miss % since the break so he’s a solid proposition to keep churning out strong games the rest of the way. Over his last five starts covering 26 innings, Norris has a BB/K split of 5/26 with a line-drive rate of 14%, a groundball rate of 48% and a xERA of 3.25. Norris can deal it but we’re not so sure about Jeremy Hellickson.
Hellickson is rated a high risk for a tough home outing against one of the American League’s best road offenses. Hellickson (5.32 home ERA this season) is coming off back-to-back games in which he did not make it out of the fifth inning against both Toronto (5 ER in 3.1 IP) and these same Orioles (4 ER in 4.1 IP). Hellickson was also tagged for three bombs in those two games. After three years of outperforming xERA with favorable hit and strand percentages, luck has predictably swung the other way against him this year. Hellickson’s weak 34%/45% groundball/fly-ball split is another troublesome trait in his profile. The Orioles are in one of their hot zones (5.6 RPG, .828 OPS since Aug. 25) and they always seem to be in a hot zone against Hellickson (.822 OPS in 220+ PA). The O’s figure to get to Hellickson again and in the process put away the Rays early.
Kansas City +104 over N.Y. YANKEES
We ran into some hard luck yesterday with the Royals when Danny Duffy was removed from the game after throwing one pitch. One pitch is an official start and the Royals were forced to being in career stiff Liam Hendriks. Naturally we lost that game but it’s not going to prevent us from coming right back on the Royals here against Shane Greene. An addition to a Yankees rotation that re-tooled midseason due to various injuries, farmhand Shane Greene has given the Yankees some very good innings since his July promotion. Only problem is, this is the same guy with a career 4.39 ERA in over 500 career minor league innings. Are we sure this is the same guy? Greene has had no problem inducing swings and misses versus major league competition. His K rate has hovered around 8 K’s/9 throughout his minor league career, but his current swing and miss rate of 10% at this level was unexpected. That said, you don't spend five years in Single-A without your share of warts, and his competition thus far has been on the light side (BOS twice, TEX, TAM, CHW). Nothing in his current profile says an implosion is imminent but the small sample size corollary is in play here and we’re seeing signs of big trouble. Greene’s line-drive rate of 27% is high, which suggests he's been fairly hittable. This is an ongoing problem of his, as he allowed nearly 10 hits per game on average in the minors. His WHIP of 1.36 is higher than the league average and in his last three starts Greene has been taken yard four times. Pitching at Yankee Stadium, Greene has an oppBA of .306, an ERA of 5.40 and a BB/K split of 11/22 in 26 innings. It would appear that the book is out on him now that he’s made 11 starts.
Royals starter Yordano Ventura was skipped in his rotation turn on Aug. 27 because of tightness in the middle of his back. It was later reported Ventura's MRI showed inflammation and fluid but no damage and as a result he missed just one start. He returned to the rotation on Sept 1 and allowed just five hits in 6.1 frames against the Rangers while striking out 7. K.C. has won six of Ventura’s last seven starts. He’s now 11-9 with an elite 18 pure quality starts in 25 tries, a 3.38 ERA and 132 K’s overall in 153 innings. This little guy with the big arm (fastball touches 100 mph) has top of the rotation potential and if he really is figuring it out as quickly as his skills suggests, he could get there quickly. Everything in Ventura’s profile is heading the right way including swinging strike rate, first pitch strike rate, groundball percentage (52% over his last six starts) and most importantly xERA. As a pooch against the light hitting Yanks, Ventura and the Royals offer up all the value here.
Pass CFL
DAVE COKIN
SEATTLE MARINERS AT TEXAS RANGERS
PLAY: TEXAS RANGERS +130
The Mariners are still contending for a playoff spot, the Rangers are simply playing for pride. But this is a strength vs. weakness spot and I see it as a game where the upset looms as a decent possibility.
No knocks on James Paxton. The Mariners rookie lefty has been rock solid and there’s no way it’s a cinch to try and beat him. But I was ultra impressed with Derek Holland as he finally got off the DL for Texas and he now gets to take on team he’s pretty well owned as a major leaguer.
Holland’s presence for the full season would obviously have meant quite a bit for Texas, and I can imagine no one feels worse about the goofy injury he incurred than the veteran southpaw. But he sure looked sharp in his first start back with the big club, and I’m of the opinion Holland wants to build some momentum that he can take into 2015.
The weakness for Seattle is its offense against lefties. That’s the strength for the Rangers, who in spite of all their problems this season, have still been able to bang around southpaws. Paxton is a cut above the norm to be sure, and the Rangers certainly aren’t hitting much against anyone right now with that patchwork lineup.
This is mainly a play on Holland. If he’s right, and off that last outing I’ve no reason to think he won’t be, then the Rangers are a solid value here at the current price tag. Not that the Mariners don’t rate being the chalk, but I can’t see it being quite this much. I’ll look to the Rangers as a live dog call today.
TJ Masterline
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Play: Over 46.5
The New England Patriots have taken 11 of the last 13 AFC East Division titles and the 2014 squad looks poised to make it 12 of 14. The Miami Dolphins, who host the Patriots in the season opener on Sunday, are just trying to put a rough 2013 season behind them and move forward with the focus on the field. The Dolphins were impressively competitive last season despite the locker room turmoil that surrounded Jonathan Martin and the offensive line, though it only resulted in a .500 record. New England quarterback Tom Brady dealt with an almost entirely new corps of receivers in 2013 and still threw for 4,343 yards. Brady will have some continuity among his receivers in 2014, presumably including the return of Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski, who did not play in any of the four preseason games but declared himself ready to go for Week 1. Miami brought in new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor to speed up the offense and hopefully keep quarterback Ryan Tannehill off the turf.
Bruce Marshall
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates picked up a pair of crucial wins on Sunday (including completion of Friday's suspended game) and have climbed into the thick of the NL wild card discussion. The Bucs have their brooms out in anticipation of their first 3-game or more sweep at Wrigley Field in 14 years behind starter Gerrit Cole, who has won all three career matchups vs. the Cubs with a 2.84 ERA. Chicago starter Travis Wood has never beaten the Pirates, as he is 0-5 with a 4.70 ERA in six previous matchups.
BIG AL
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
Last season, the Jags struggled to a 4-12 record, while the Eagles went 10-6. But the NFL is a league where teams can improve (or fall) quickly from one year to the next. So, when handicapping the NFL's first week, it's best to completely forget about last season, as it really is "yesterday's news." One of the things I like to do in Pro Football is bet on double-digit underdogs in Week 1. These teams are the ones that "nobody wants." Yet, they've been a profitable 60.4% over the past 34 years (and 66% ATS in non-division games). Look for Jacksonville to cover the double-digits on Sunday.
Golden Retriever
Giants at Tigers
Pick: Over
Today's Total, 8.5, is the same as the series opener, but in that one we had Jake Peavy vs. Rick Porcello, and in this one? It's Tim Hudson vs. Kyle Lobstein. Yes, they are both less superior and even the first two games went OVER, the oddsmakers don't make a change anyway. In fact, two sides have experienced higher scoring games than expected recently, the Over is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6, and 6-2-1 in Tigers last 9 overall. No rocket science here, just keep rolling.