Jim Feist
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Browns begin play with Brian Hoyer at QB and Johnny "Football" Manziel ready in the wings. While I believe Manziel is a bust in this league, there is no doubt he's already a money maker in apparel and notoriety. There was of course the "finger" incident during the preseason and now he's trademarking names, all without having played a regular season snap in the NFL. The big question is how will the Browns replace Josh Gordon, who has been suspended for the season and reportedly is selling cars this year. Without one of the best receivers in the league, Hoyer will have to do with a bunch of no-name receivers including Cowboys reject Miles Austin, Andrew Hawksins and Taylor Gabriel. This Browns team just won't have the firepower to compete with a much improved Steelers offense. The Steelers have lost their last three season openers so you know they want to stop that streak right now. The good news is that the Steelers haven't lost at home to the Browns since a 33-13 drubbing in week five of the 2003 season. The Steelers have nine new starters to this year's edition and that might be just the ticket to improve on a lackluster 8-8 campaign from last year. The Browns just don't have enough offense and while this isn't the old Steel curtain defense, it should be well equipped to handle a no-name Browns offense.
Kyle Hunter
Colts vs. Broncos
Play: 55
The Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts can both put up points, and we know Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck are fully capable of getting into a shootout. Manning and the Broncos offense looked bad in the Super Bowl last year, but bettors need to make sure they don't forget how amazing they were all through the rest of the season. The Colts defense isn't Seattle, and the Broncos will score a lot of points here. Indianapolis should be able to find holes as well as Luck now has a healthier group of wide receivers to target. The tempo of this game will be relatively quick, and the new rules of defensive holding and pass interference being called much more often will play a major factor in this game.
Brad Diamond
Jaguars vs. Eagles
Play: Under 52
Thought we would have a 53-54 number here, but cooler heads prevailed in Vegas after some high level moves brought the number down to reality. In the preseason I talked about teams with talent being over hyped after a “surprising” successful season. Philly developed into a playoff team (10-7) under former Oregon mentor Chip Kelly. They enter Sunday with an improved team, somewhat, from the talent perspective, although lacking a deep threat who exited via the D.C corridor. Jacksonville comes in under a restructuring formula (what else?) after going 6-16 the last two years. Second year HC Gus Bradley was responsible for the 4-12 season in 2013. They finished with a -13 point differential average (15 vs. 28). So the question we have to ask is, “how many new scoring weapons have been acquired?” Few to be exact, and now they enter Sunday with wholesale changes at many offensive positions, including an injury to a key wide out. So, playing in Philly (with that crowd) we doubt signal-calling will be a lark. Further, Jacksonville’s defense is not as bad as the 28-ppg. Remember when you have a fallible offense it clearly puts more pressure on your defense. The Eagles as we mentioned are flying high with great expectations, but too this is game #1 under the spotlight. So, perfection we doubt will be the case study Monday morning. Eagles win, of course, but feel we are walking into a numbers trap, therefore we suggest looking UNDER. Jacksonville is 6-1 UNDER in the month of September, while the Birds show 6-2 UNDER at home.
Jonathan Jorcin
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: Philadelphia Eagles -10½
I was high on the Jaguars during the preseason, taking them on two of their four games, and covered the spread both times. This is a new ball game, the regular season, and they have a tough first road game. The NFL is so competitive, I usually try to stay away from double digit spreads, especially in week one, but the Eagles come into this game heavily more talented and skilled. I am still high on the Jaguars making vast improvements from a year ago, but they will not have much of a passing game since they will be without Cecil Shorts because of a hamstring issue. Defensively they have major holes, and they get to face Chip Kelley and a team planning on running about 70 plays. The Eagles will tire the Jags defense and do so without allowing them to substitute players.
The Eagles will be explosive offensively, with McCoy and Sproles out of the backfield, and Nick Foles the man under center. They also have defensive issues, but luckily tomorrow get a Jaguars team who will have trouble, especially with Marqise Lee, rookie out of USC, being their number one receiver. This is a huge spread for the NFL, but take the Eagles to cover by at least two touchdowns.
Jimmy Adams
Minnesota Vikings vs. St. Louis Rams
Play: St. Louis Rams -3
With the news of Sam Bradford being out for this contest, books are getting pounded with Minnesota money. Bradford may be a bigger household name than Shaun Hill, but if you look into the advanced metrics stats you’ll find that Bradford isn’t any better. Hill has a better career record as well as QBR. He may not be able to throw the ball as far as Bradford, but he makes better decisions and is an equally effective quarterback. The switch is certainly not worth a 3 point line move, which we saw swing in our favor.
In the preseason we saw a very physical team in the Rams. They’re a hardnosed, defense first squad that actually has the chance to be one of the best D’s in the league this season. The Offense will look to run first and keep things conservative. Many experts have St. Louis as a sleeper team coming into the year, and I can’t say I disagree with them.
As for the Vikings, don’t expect too much from them this season. First year Head Coach Mike Zimmer is highly regarded, but it will take time for him to implement his system as well as get a grasp on what it takes to be a head coach. He’s also a defensive minded guy, so this less than stellar offense may be at a bit of a disadvantage. Minnesota has QB distractions and doesn’t have enough talent on either side of the ball to pull this one out. The line moved in our favor in a big way so let’s look to take advantage.
Jesse Schule
San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Dallas Cowboys +4½
There isn't a lot of optimism about the Cowboys this year, coming off three straight 8-8 seasons. They lost DeMarcus Ware on defense, and don't kid yourself thinking Michael Sam is going to make much of an impact. Dallas was terrible defensively last year, and there's really no reason to expect much of an improvement in 2014.
That being said, they still have Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, with DeMarco Murray providing a balanced offense. The Cowboys were pretty strong in Dallas last year, with their three home losses all coming in games decided by three points or less. Those games include a 51-48 loss to Denver, a 37-36 loss to the Packers, and a 24-22 loss to the Eagles. That's something to take into consideration if you're one of those who are calling for a blowout.
Tony Romo hasn't faced the 49ers since 2011, but he's thrown for 686 yards and five TDs winning both his previous starts versus San Francisco. Dallas won 27-24 in overtime in the last meeting, and Romo played through pain with a broken rib.
San Francisco's defense has been one of the fiercest in football in recent seasons, but with Navorro Bowman injured and Aldon Smith suspended, they come into this game shorthanded. Perhaps this explains Harbaugh's decision to play Ray McDonald despite his recent arrest for felony domestic violence.
I'm expecting Dallas to keep this game close, covering as a home dog in Week 1.
Oliver Alonso
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2½
A lot of pundits are expecting the 2014 season to be a promising one for a Carolina Panthers squad coming off a 12-win campaign. I do not think so. It must be noted that many sources have now confirmed that Panther prime time QB Newton wore a larger flak jacket at practice to give his ribs extra protection. Newton also underwent ankle surgery in the off season, and in my opinion is vulnerable here and game 1 and obviously less than 100%. Despite the media perceptions that make him out to be Superman. He is admittedly the main cog in the Panthers offense, and extreme pressure from Tampa Bays underrated defense will be expected, as well as some crushing hits against a new look Panther offensive line.
Tampa Bays New HC Lovie Smith Smith wants to establish a winning tradition at home and it starts Sunday and Im betting he brings out every weapon possible to scrape out a win. The Bucs new QB Josh McCown is an experienced player, who has had success in the past. I expect his offensive line to give him the time he needs to succeed today, thanks to key defensive instabilities on the Panthers D-line, as stalwarts Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy are dealing with nagging injuries. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers D as mentioned above will give Newton and some new/inexperienced WR options more fits than expected, which will limit the Panthers scoring chances.
Carolina is 0-6 in last 6 openers. TB is 7-2 ATS at Home in last 9 openers with revenge. The Dog in this series has failed to cover 6 of the last 7 times.
Will Rogers
Carolina vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
The Carolina Panthers have struggled out of the gates in recent seasons, and opening the 2014 season on the road with a banged up Cam Newton is going to make it difficult to break that trend in 2014. Newton had surgery on an injured ankle in the off-season, and suffered fractured ribs during the pre-season. I like Tampa's chances of winning their home opener.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Carolina Receiving Corps - Gone is veteran and team leader Steve Smith, as well as Tedd Ginn Jr., and this will mean Newton has to establish chemistry with newcomers Jerircho Cotchery and Jason Avant.
2. Josh McCown - The veteran QB should be a significant upgrade from Mike Glennon who started 13 games for the Bucs last year. McCown threw for 13 TDs and just one INT in eight games for Chicago last year. He has a pair of quality receivers as targets in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans.
3. X-Factor - The Panthers have failed to cover in their season opener in each of the last five seasons, while the favorite has covered six of the last seven in this series.
Joe Gavazzi
Washington Redskins +3
After the positive numbers authored by Houston in the 2012 season, much was expected of the Texans in 2013. They proceed to author a 2-14 SU, 4-12 ATS log, making them the biggest underachiever in the NFL last season. Paying the price was QB Schaub (now Oakland) and former HC Kubiak (now Washington) who is now replaced by HC O’Brien, who coached Penn State the last two seasons. At the signal caller spot will be QB Fitzpatrick (Tennessee LY). As you can imply from the above analysis, the improvement will not be immediate. Washington breaks in new HC Gruden, but there is stability at the signal caller spot with RG3, now healthier, after his ACL injury of two years ago. Aggressive Washington defense may cause some havoc against the still-developing Houston attack. From a technical perspective, know that in the last 4 years, teams who won 5 or fewer games the previous season are just 11-29 ATS in early season action.
Jeffrey James
Redskins +3
RG III is really looking forward to the regular season to recover from his terrible season last year. He has put in a ton of work and now have an awesome weapon in Jackson. Houston is looking to rebound from a terrible season but this is not a good spot for them as they only have covered 1 of their last 8 as home favorites against NFC teams. Houston lost ATS every time they were favored last season, they have to show me they can cover when laying points, until they do I am going against them.
Prophet Plays
Patriots -3.5
The Patriots made some late preseason trades that were very crafty. They also get their full compliment of players back this year.(DT's Wilfork and Kelly, ILB Mayo and TE Gronkowski) The injury bug devastated New England last year and they still made it to the AFC Championship game. They also now have stud corner Revis to control one side of the field. Have to believe the duo of Bellichick and Brady remember their 24-20 loss to Miami in week 15 last year, costing them home field in the playoffs. Bellichick has only lost 6 division games in the last 5 years and is 4-0 ATS/SU revenging those losses, Covering by 21 PPG.
River City Sharps
NY Jets -5
The Derek Carr era in Oakland begins on Sunday as the Raiders travel east to take on the New York Jets. Carr won the starting QB job over Matt Schaub and will make his first career start against a Jets defense that has traditionally made that a tough spot. Rex Ryan’s teams are 7-1 all-time vs. rookie quarterbacks. The Jets secondary has a lot of question marks entering this season, so the matchup vs. a rookie quarterback might be exactly what the doctor ordered. The Jets offense will once again be led by Geno Smith, who has definitely looked more comfortable in his second season leading the Jets. Offensively, the Jets went out and added some weapons with RB Chris Johnson coming over from Tennessee and WR Eric Decker joining New York via Denver. One thing that Oakland will have to improve in the 2014 season is their defense, especially on the road, where they surrendered almost 28 ppg. One angle we have always really liked is going against West Coast teams travelling east for a 1 p.m. kickoff, and we have that situation here in New York. We like Ryan’s career mark against rookie QB’s and we think that success continues Sunday as the Jets cover the number against the Raiders. The Sharps say…
Harry Bondi
New England / Miami Under 46.5
Lots of trends and angles favoring a low-scoring game here today. First off, both teams tend to go under in AFC East games and in Week 1. The Pats have cashed under tickets in six of their last eight division games and in the last two season openers. The Fish are an even more convincing 10-1 to the under in their last 11 AFC East games and 1-6 to the under in their last seven openers. Each of the last four games in this series have also gone under with an average of just 38.5 points per game. It's another defensive-minded game between two familiar foes in the sticky heat of Miami.
Joe D'Amico
Indianapolis vs. Denver
Play: Denver -7½
Denver's got two things in mind here. First, they need to redeem themselves from LY's Super Bowl embarrassment. Secondly, to avenge a loss to Indy that broke their 6-game win streak to start the season. The icing on the cake is that Peyton Manning gets to do it on Week 1 against his old team. The Broncos were an offensive juggernaut last year, scoring 606 points, Manning's 55 TD Passes and 5,477 Passing Yards. The club went out and loaded up their defense, adding DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib, Joe Ward, and TJ Ware. The stop-unit gave up a total of 39 points in the preseason as they truly tried to do. Indianapolis has had success under Andrew Luck but isn't the deepest team in the League. They have problems on their OL and have a very "average" running game. They will have issues moving the chains which will allow the Broncos a significant edge in Time Of Possession. To make matters worse, Robert Mathis is suspended. The Indy defense loses their leader and their best pass-rusher. The favorite is 6-2 ATS their L8 meetings in this series. The Broncos are 4-0-1 ATS their L5 games played in September while the Colts are 0-6 ATS their L6 games played in Week 1.
Larry Ness
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Atlanta Falcons
The Saints went 11-5 last year with Sean Payton back on the sidelines (team was 7-9 during 2012 when he sat out due to “Bounty-Gate”) and has now reached the postseason four straight years under Payton (combined 48-16 regular season record). Reaching the postseason under Peyton (Drew Brees may have a little to do with that as well) seems like a foregone conclusion but earning home field advantage in the postseason seems like a MUST, if the Saints are to win a second Vince Lombardi Trophy (beat the Colts and Peyton Manning following the 2009 season).
The Saints open the 2014 season against division rival Atlanta, a team which went 13-3 in 2012 and came “just one play short” of reaching the Super Bowl that year. However, NOTHING went right for the Falcons last season, as the team tumbled to a 4-12 record. After going 36-12 during three straight playoff seasons, the Falcons are out to prove last year's 4-12 finish (their worst since 2007) was an aberration. The fact that SEVEN of the team’s 12 losses came by a TD or less, including five by four points or less. lends credibility to an expected “bounce-back” season for Atlanta.
One of Atlanta’s numerous “close losses” came right here at this venue, 17-13 in a Thursday night game. With little to play for, the Falcons took the Saints right down to the wire. Considering the fact that the Saints were 0-4 ATS as a road favorite last year, coupled with the fact the Falcons are 7-0 ATS at home during the first two weeks of the season under Mike Smith, I’m taking the points!