Matt Fargo
Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Tennessee Titans +3
Week One of the regular season can be a tricky one for both bettors and linesmakers. Setting the lines is tough as the main parameters are based on last season's performances and this year's expectations and this line is clearly taking those into account. The Chiefs had one of the best turnaround seasons ever as they went from going 2-14 in 2012 to 11-6 in 2013 and earning a playoff berth. But we all remember what happened in Indianapolis in that game. This game reminds me a lot of the Colts first game last season when it also went from 2-14 the previous season to 11-6 the next year but lost in the playoffs. They failed to cover against the Raiders in the season opener. Kansas City hosts Tennessee with high expectations going into the season but I am not sold on this team heading into the season. Despite the winning record from last season, Kansas City was outgained by an average of 30.6 ypg which shows the record was better than it should be. The Chiefs have a game against Denver next week so they could looking ahead to that one. Tennessee has a chance to be a sleeper team in the AFC as it has a lot of talent and brings in a new head coach in Ken Whisenhunt. Six of the Titans nine losses last year were by one possession including three by a field goal or less. Quarterback Jake Locker has picked up the new system very well and after missing some time last season, he could be a big improvement this year. This line has come down considerably from its opener and the public is all over as Kansas City is the second biggest consensus on the board right now. An outright Tennessee win if far from out of the question.
Dave Price
St. Louis Cardinals -130
Cardinals have the edge with Wainwright on the mound. The ace right-hander has an impressive 1.88 road ERA on the season. Consider that Milwaukee's Nelson has a 5.00 home ERA. The Cardinals have won six straight as favorites, are 52-23 in Wainwright's last 75 starts as a favorite and 23-10 in his last 33 starts as a road fave. St. Louis has had Milwaukee's number. The Redbirds have won 42 of the last 62 meetings, including 14 of the last 19 at Miller Park. They are 4-1 in Wainwright's last five starts versus the Brew Crew and 5-2 in his last seven road starts against them. Milwaukee has dropped its last five in the underdog role.
Nick Parsons
Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -7½
This is a rematch of a game, that the Colts surprised many by winning 39-33 last year, in Indianapolis on Manning’s return. John Elway's handiwork knows what he has in is offense so he dove into free agency to shore up the defense and the result were high-profile defensive targets like pass rusher DeMarcus Ware‚ shutdown cornerback AqibTalib and ascending young safety T.J. Ward.
On offense the Bronco’s wide receiver Decker to free agency and Welker to suspension. Free agent pick up Sanders, from Pittsburgh, will Manning give another weapon for an offense that was pretty much unstoppable last year. (Unless you were Seattle)
Indianapolis has a rash of problems on the field, that have already suffered two season-ending injuries to potential contributors in running back Vick Ballard (Achilles') and offensive guard Donald Thomas (quad).They also lost its top pass rusher‚ Robert Mathis‚ who as suspended for the first four games of the regular season.
The Broncos lead the all-time series by an 11-9 margin but have dropped five straight‚ although 80 percent of that damage was done while Manning was leading the Colts.
Luck is Luck but to be a true Super Bowl contender‚ the Colts will need something more from disappointing running back Trent Richardson‚ who was acquired from Cleveland last September for a first-round pick.
I see the Denver Broncos letting up from where they left off last year. (Minus the Super Bowl) The additions on defense just makes them tougher and will give Luck problems id Richardson is not able to give them any support on the ground. The loss of Mathis will hurt the definitely hurt the Colts D. These two teams look destined for playoff berths and division titles this year.
The defensive upgrades show that Denver are pointed a little more in the right direction for another Super Bowl run. They will be enough in this game to put Manning and the broncos over the top.
Ross Benjamin
acksonville @ Philadelphia
Play: Jacksonville +10.5
When strictly assessing this game on paper this appears to be an absolute gift in regards to the home favorite. However, the last I checked games weren't played on paper, and if it looks to go to be true in sports wagering, then most times than not it is. The Jaguars finished last season by going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a road underdog, and won 3 of those 5-games outright. The Eagles are a dismal 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 as a home favorite of 7.5 or more.
Any away underdog of 8.5 or more that's playing in their season opener, and they won 4 or more games in the previous season, versus an opponent that won 15-games or less in the previous season, has gone 13-1 ATS since 1988. The underdog has also managed to win 6 of those 14-games outright.
Red Dog Sports
Brazil vs. Argentina
Play: Argentina +6
These two are South American rivals and Argentina seems to get the best of them in past meetings. They are led by Luis Scola but are without some key players like Manu Ginoboli. Brazil is favored by 6 points and are 4-1 with a 2 point loss to France and an 6 point win vs. Serbia while losing by 19 to Spain. They won big as expected against Iran and Egypt. Argentina is 3-2 with losses by 5 to Croatia and by 8 to Greece. These two split games earlier in August. Hopefully, we see a close game on Sunday.
Michael Black
Colts at Broncos
Play: Broncos
The Broncos take on the Colts for this week's edition of Sunday Night Football and we're backing Denver as the home favorite. I'm not exactly banking on Denver to get back to the promise land this year, I just expect the Colts to take a step back this year, maybe even two or three. Welker got suspended and this line moved up?!? That's making no sense at all, especially with more money coming in on Indy. Let's back the Broncos and swallow the 7 points.
Bob Balfe
Colorado Rockies +110
Just like we said yesterday, if San Diego can come here and out score this Rockies team then so be it, but Colorado is built for this park and it really doesn't matter who the starting pitchers are. The Padres scored a ton of runs last night and still lost. Colorado just has better bats in this park and I like them as the dog. Take the Rockies.
David Banks
Indianapolis Colts +7.5
Peyton Manning gets to face his former team for the second time in two years when his current team, the AFC Champion Denver Broncos, host the Indianapolis Colts in the season opener for both teams from Sports Authority Field in Denver Sunday night at 8:35 ET on NBC. The Colts handed the Broncos their first loss to the season following a 6-0 start last season in Indianapolis, so the Broncos are looking for some payback here while this time being at home, not to mention also being anxious to quickly erase the memory of the 43-8 Super Bowl loss to the Seahawks. The Colts are the reigning AFC South Champions and are heavy favorites to repeat this year.
The Broncos have gotten some unwanted attention off the field due to the four-game suspensions of wide receiver Wes Welker and kicker Matt Prater, but the team is still loaded on offense and should be much improved defensively, so a return trip to the Super Bowl is not at all unlikely. Yes Denver lost running back Knowshon Moreno and wide receiver Eric Decker to free agency, but the Broncos should not miss a beat in the backfield with Montee Ball ready to step right in as the feature back in his second season and the Broncs quickly replaced Decker by signing Emmanuel Sanders away from the Steelers. Besides, the presence of Manning under center could make even mediocre players at the offensive skill positions look good, and Denver is far from mediocre there with wide receiver Demaryius Thomas and tight end Julius Thomas both being among thbest in the NFL at their positions. As the Seahawks showed in the Super Bowl, just about the only way to slow the Broncos down is to beat them up physically, and that is not the style of the Indianapolis defense. Speaking of defense, the Broncos bolstered theirs with the additions of pass rusher DeMarcus Ware, shutdown cornerback Aqib Talib and safety T.J. Ward, giving the team better balance this year.
As for the Colts, Andrew Luck has taken them to the playoffs in each of his first two years in the league, first as a wild card as a rookie in 2012 and then as division champs last year. Indianapolis also won a playoff game last season in a wild 45-44 thriller over the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Colts are hoping for bigger things this season with this game in hostile territory probably serving as a very good gauge to see where they stand. Unfortunately, the Colts' defense also has a player suspended for four games in Robert Mathis, and he will probably be missed more that Denver's two losses as the Indianapolis does not have anyone else that applies great pressure on the quarterback, meaning his loss could easily be the fatal blow to the Colts' chances of slowing down Manning. And the Colt run defense also allowed a distressing 384 rushing yards in the two playoff games last year too. While there is no denying Luck's passing ability, he will probably not be matching someone of Manning's caliber point-for-point here, especially considering the apparent disparity in the two defenses right now.
The Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on grass and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games in September. The Colts are 0-6 ATS in their last six regular season openers.
LT Profits
San Diego vs Colorado
Pick: Over 9.5
The Colorado Rockies have taken the first two games from the San Diego Padres at home, but last night’s win was higher scoring than expected with Colorado winning 7-6 in extras. We see that improved offense continuing today even with underrated Tyson Ross starting for the Padres. First of all, Colorado’s Franklin Morales is capable of blowing up this total himself given that he has allowed 13 earned runs in 8.1 innings over his last two home starts in Coors Field. Secondly, while Ross does have great peripheral numbers, especially his 184 strikeouts vs. 66 walks, he threw 115 pitches in his last start Monday, which were the second most pitches he has thrown all year. That would be a bit concerning regardless of venue, but it is especially concerning coming back in the altitude. The ‘over’ is 6-0 in Morales's last six starts pitching with five days of rest.
Jeff Alexander
LA Dodgers -1.5 -101
The Dodgers have had Cahill's number this season. The D-backs are 0-3 in his 3 2014 starts against them, during which he's given up 20 runs in just 11 1-3 innings. Each of these 3 defeats came by 2 runs or more. Greinke has been lights out versus the Snakes, giving up 2 runs or less in each of his last 6 starts against them. He's allowed only 2 runs in 19 1-3 innings spanning 3 starts against them this season. The Dodgers are 5-1 in his last 6 starts against Arizona with each of the 5 wins coming by at least 2 runs.
Doug Upstone
Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -7½
Play Against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Indianapolis, a team that had a winning record last season. How this system has worked is teams like this the following year would not normally be this large of an underdog, unless their was a reason. In this case the oddsmakers definitely prefer the home team and have set the line accordingly. Road dogs in this spot are 11-33 ATS the past nine years.
Scott Delaney
But wait, everyone is on the Pittsburgh Steelers, because the Cleveland Browns appear to be in disarray. But I'm wondering if the cloud of messiness that has appeared to plague the Browns is a decoy, and I also have to wonder how ready the Steelers really are.
It doesn't matter to me the Steelers have won the past 10 meetings, but I don't trust this team after its defense ranked 13th in the NFL last year, the lowest ranking since 1992.
Pittsburgh is going to struggle, and Cleveland has nothing to lose right now, as its newlook team has to be on an uptick. The confidence level will be there, as the Steelers opened last season 0-4, and can certainly do the same with many uncertainties.
Take the points.
3♦ CLEVELAND
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Cleveland Browns over the Pittsburgh Steelers in an early AFC North matchup.
The good, the bad, and the ugly. Let's look at these in reverse order.
First, the ugly.
Pittsburgh has won 10 straight games at home vs. Cleveland and won six of their last eight games overall to end the 2013 season... including two double-digit wins against Cleveland. The Browns have been "down" over the last decade or so and the Steelers have owned them of late, which doesn't bode well for Brian Hoyer and the Cleveland Browns today.
The bad? Well, for starters, it's the lack of any consistent receiving threat, a solid QB, or any semblance of a running game. Now Ben Tate might prove to be better than I think and Hoyer could be an improvement over Brandon Weeden's terrible play last year, but the lack of a goto receiver could come back to haunt them. Without Josh Gordon, I'm not sure exactly what the Browns plan to do, but apparently they have a game plan. We'll see.
If you play fantasy football, you know who Jordan Cameron is. And if you're Brian Hoyer, you definitely know who Cameron is. He's the sure-handed TE who caught 16 passes for 157 yards and four TDs in two games when Hoyer was under center last year. Needless to say, Hoyer loves Cameron and will find him as often as he can today.
The Cleveland defense is above average and I don't know how much faith I have in Pittsburgh's defense. This game should be low scoring and close... and I see Pittsburgh winning on a last second FG. Take the Browns as your free play of the day.
2♦ CLEVELAND
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is San Francisco as the road chalk over Dallas.
The Niners have some issues defense - Bowman and Smith both out - but the Cowboys defense doesn't exactly resemble the vaunted "Doomsday Defense" of yesteryear, so I will count on Colin Kaepernick to deliver more scoring shots than his counterpart Tony Romo.
Jim Harbaugh guided his team to a 6-0 spread mark in the road favorite role last season, and quite frankly I trust his football IQ a tad more than I do Dallas coach Jason Garrett's.
Dallas has failed 8 straight, and 12 of their last 13 when installed as a home dog of +4, and I don't see them stepping up in their home opener this Sunday afternoon versus the 49ers.
Go ahead and lay the 4 or so with Frisco today.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Gabriel Dupont
I will play the Houston Texans over the Washington Redskins.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with the Texans - Defense. Houston has nowhere to go but up, after last season's disappointing run. Houston ranked seventh overall with its stop unit, third against the pass, but the Texans will be looking to get well in the trenches, where they ranked 23rd against the rush. With Clowney, this stop unit will be better
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against the Redskins - New regime. The coaching staff is brand new, and the dress rehearsal is over. Washington has a lot to prove with Jay Gruden in place, and I'm not so sure this is the best defense to make our debut against.
In conclusion, why HOUSTON is my SMART PLAY in this game - Ready for this, it's been almost one year since the Texans have won a regulars season contest. They will aim for their first regular-season win in 357 days after losing 14 in a row last season, after knocking off Tennessee 30-24 in Week 2. Houston has won four straight season openers, and will be pumped to get this win under its belt.
3♦ HOUSTON