Chris Jordan
Last time I gave you a free play, it was in the preseason and it was all about Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints. Nothing changes here, as I like the Saints on the road, to open the season with a win and cover in Atlanta.
Tonight in Atlanta, we'll be reminded of who holds the all-time single-season mark for passing yards, behind his excellence and offensive prowess. I fully expect Brees to direct the New Orleans Saints prolific offense to an easy win tonight.
And I don't know if Atlanta is as together as people think. And now the Dirty Birds face a team that is on a 13-3 run in this series. Sure, nine of the past 12 have been tight matchups, if you call decided by eight points or fewer "tight."
The difference here, though, won't be with New Orleans' high-octane offense, but more so with Atlanta's offensive line, which will have two new starters and will struggle against the Saints' improved defense.
Remember two years ago, how bad the Saints were on defense? Last year Rob Ryan got things in check and the stop unit ranked fourth overall. This year it could be even better, once again.
Lay the road chalk.
2♦ NEW ORLEANS
Brad Wilton
Jacksonville coach Gus Bradley got late season results with his team last year, as the Jags played .500 ball their final 8 games, and showed some "Seattle style" defense carried over from his days as D.C. of the Seahawks.
Still, prefer to back the Over in this Jags-Eagles contest, as Chip Kelly can get his Birds humming on offense at the drop of a hat.
The Jaguars have played 12 of their last 18 road games Over the total, while the Eagles are riding a 14-9 Over run their last 23 games contested.
Philadelphia's offensive line stayed 100% healthy last season, so Nick Foles should be well-protected. Add to an already explosive offense the skill-set of Darren Sproles, and Philadelphia should be ringing up scores on that Lincoln Financial Field scoreboard.
Jacksonville-Philadelphia Over the total.
3♦ JACKSONVILLE-PHILADELPHIA OVER
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
New England/Miami Under 46.5: The last 4 games in this series has averaged just 38.8 ppg and the Dolphins are just 1-6 to the Under in their last 7 season openers. Ryan Tannehill has a year year under his belt, but still they have a very weak running game, the worst OL in the league and a very average set of WRs. This is not a team that will put up many points this year. They also will be taking on a Patriot defense that has improved greatly over the offseason, especially their secondary which is one of the top 3 in the league. Miami is not a god offensive team, but they are a better than average defensive team and should make enough plays to keep the Patriots from going crazy on the scoreboard. Just hard to see this game putting up nearly 50 points. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Week 1 road favorites are 17-3 to the Under if the OU line is 45 or higher.
Minnesota/St Louis Under 43: Both teams will be more of run based teams this year and that will chew clock. The Vikings have Adrian Petersen, but he is running behind a very average OL that will be taking on what may be the best DL in the league. The Rams are very stout up front and also will be able to put plenty of pressure on Cassel, who is not a great QB as it is. The Rams have Shaun Hill at QB for this one, but I really expect him to be eased in the role, with plenty of running from Zac Stacy. This game features two teams that will look to run the ball vs one of the best front sevens in the league on one team and a decent front 7s on the other side. We also get a conservative coach on one side (Jeff Fisher) and a defensive minded coach (Mike Zimmer) on the other side. This one should be a game that is played under 38 points.
Tennessee/Kansas City Under 44.5: Boy I don't see this game hitting the 40s at all. The Kansas City offense is not all that high powered and will rely more on their ground game to move the ball this year. I am still not sold on Alex Smith being more than a game manager. For the Titans, they are solid at the WR position and the OL, but really don't have solid QB play and no real running game to speak of. Now both teams do come in with sold defenses and both coaches are rather conservative. I look for this game to be played in the mid 30s at best.
BEST OF THE REST
Tampa Bay/Carolina Under 38: Both teams have issues on the offensive side of the ball as the Panthers have Cam Newton, but he is banged up and even if he wasn't, who was he gonna get the ball to, while on the other side we have a Tampa offense that has decent skill players, but no one to get them the ball. Both teams should have to rely on their run games to move the ball in this one. on the other side of the ball both teams appear very solid. The Panthers had the 2nd best defense in the league and this year come in with what may be the best from 7 in the league and will be a Tampa offense that has one of the weakest OLs in the league. Tampa Bay was very average on defense last year, but they also come in with a very stout and will be going up against a weak OL. Very hard to see these teams generating much offense in this one.
New Orleans -3 over ATLANTA: The Saints appear ready to make another solid run at the Lombardi Trophy, with another high powered offense and a defense that improved greatly last year and could be even better this year. The Falcons have a nice aerial attack, but no running game to speak of and a weak offensive line, while on defense they have question marks all over the play. The Saints also rate the edge in coaching and playing in a dome will not faze them even though it is not their own. I look for the Saints to win this one by at least a TD.
San Francisco -3.5 over DALLAS: The Niners are a team that had much turmoil during the preseason, but i expect them to put that all behind and play a very good game here against a Dallas team that looks just a mess right now. The Cowboys defense may be the worst in the league and will have problems stopping a San Fran offense that is out to show that they don't have the issues that they showed in the preseason. The Niners defense is missing some key personnel, but still they will be facing a Dallas team that has a weak running game and OL. Look for the Niners to win by at least a TD.
Frank Jordan
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Carolina Panthers +2.5
Carolina won the NFC South last year with a 12-4 mark and Tampa Bay finished in last place in the same division with a 4-12 mark. in the two meetings between the two clubs Carolina won both convincingly 31-13 and 27-6 which is combined 58-19 drubbing. Carolina is looking to last year as a building season and the start of something, but a big test is in Cam Newton as he has all new receivers this season and with no safety blanket in Steve Smith how will Newton be? Tampa Bay has also retooled getting a new quarterback in McCown who has some weapons in Jackson and Evans on the outside and Doug Martin behind him. Look for a good game back and forth with the Carolina defense stepping up to give a short field to Cam to win the game.
Wunderdog
New York @ Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati -118
Cincinnati plays its third straight home game, part of a seven-game home stand, while the New York Mets wrap up a six-game road trip here. The fourth place Mets have little offense, 29th in batting and slugging, 24th in on base percentage, and 22nd in runs. Zach Wheeler goes for them and is off a bad game at Miami, allowing five runs over 4 2/3 innings, and the team is 0-2 his last two starts (eight runs, 11+ innings). The Mets are 6-13 in Wheeler's last 19 starts as an underdog. The Mets are also 16-36 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and face Mat Latos (3.46 ERA) with opponents hitting .238 off him. He is 3-1 at home and Latos has a 2.89 ERA in seven career starts against the Mets, yielding one run over 14 innings in Cincinnati. In fact, the Reds are 28-10 in Latos' last 38 home starts, 25-9 when Latos is a home favorite. Play the Reds.
William Holloway
Mariners -138
The Mariners cant afford any losses as they make a playoff push, especially to the worst team in baseball. The Mariners will also try to bolster their playoff hopes by sending James Paxton to the mound. Paxton (5-1, 1.91 ERA) improved to 8-1 after Tuesdays victory over the A’s. The Mariners should be in great position to get their sixth straight win while playing a Rangers team who has lost 9 of 10.
Andy Iskoe
Ravens -1
Cincinnati has made the Playoffs each of the past three seasons but has yet to win a Playoff game. They start this season with new coordinators on both sides of the football. After winning the Super Bowl two seasons ago Baltimore suffered fate similar to many recent champs, losing key players to retirement or free agency and having the big target on their backs. The Ravens were a respectable 8-8 after 5 straight Playoff seasons. They rate the edge both at QB and head coach and start the season with a hunger to return to the Playoffs. Even with RB Ray Rice suspended the for first two games the Ravens have adequate backups and have improved their receiving corps as well as their defensive talent. After a not surprising down season in 2013 the Ravens, who have proven i‚n the Harbaugh/Flacco era that they can win big games, should get off to a winning start in a key home Divisional contest.
Falcons +3
This is an NFC South Divisional clash between a pair of teams with elite quarterbacks and proven head coaches. A³tlanta seeks to rebound from a disappointing 4-12 season in 2013 after hosing and losing the previous NFC Title game. Injuries had much to do with the Falcons’ decline last season which put consistent pressure on a vulnerable defense. The Saints’’ defense improved greatly last season and is poised to build on that this season. The 2014 Falcons figure to be less like the 2013 edition and more like the team that won 10 or more games and made the Playoffs in 4 of 5 seasons from 2008 through 2012 which makes for an attractive home underdog in a series that has seen the underdog cash more often than not over the past decade.
Chiefs -3
Kansas City started last season 9-0 before going 2-5 and then dropping a wild Wild Card game to Indianapolis. The early season success may have been due to the preparation of first season coach Andy Reid and his familiarity with the 3 NFC East teams who the Chiefs defeated in weeks two through four. Tennessee takes a step backwards with a new head coach and although Ken Whisenhunt is highly thought of the roster is not strong enough to suggest early season success. The Chiefs are another team in need of a good opening day effort with two road games on deck. QB Alex Smith is a decent "game manager" with an elite RB (Jamaal Charles) and an aggressive defense. If this game is played in November the Titans might be the better team as the gap between these teams is narrowing. But for now the Chiefs have the edge and, playing on a historically home field, look to put the disappo‚intment of last season behind them while the Titans begin a new era.
Browns / Steelers Under 41.5
This is a Divisional game between a Cleveland team many believe is on the rise and a Pittsburgh team that may be showing signs of decline following a pair of 8-8 seasons. And while that indeed may be true there is still a sizeable gap both in terms of talent and overall strength of their organizations. Pittsburgh is an elite franchise with Mike Tomlin entering his eighth season as Steelers coach and only Pittsburgh’s third head coach since 1969. Coach Mike Pettine ushers in a new era in Cleveland football, the seventh such era since the Browns re-entered the NFL in 1999. And QB Brian Hoyer is the Browns’ twelfth different Opening Day starter over these 15 seasons. With two tough road games up next, the Steelers cannot afford to take this game or this opponent lightly. But the best play in this ga‚me is the UNDER. Cleveland has a very solid defense but a very limited offense -- traits that are well suited for low scoring games. And this has been a low scoring series in recent seasons. Even as scoring has been up leaguewide over the past several sesaons, with average points per game rising steadily, the Browns and Steelers continue to play physical, defensive battles. The last 6 games between these teams have produce 27, 38, 34, 34, 22 and 17 total points. Because of the increased scoring there are a few points of extra value in this total, which more properly should be priced in th3 37 to 38 points range.
Vegas Butcher
Tennessee Titans +3
As was discussed in my NFL Preview I expect this Titans team to be very competitive this year (I have them winning their division) and against a Chiefs team that is bound to regress I expect them to hold their own. The odds dropped on this one but even at +3, I like the value on the Titans. They’re a young team and under Whisenhunt’s tutelage I expect them to take the big step forward today. Just like I outlined in the NFL Preview Titans barely lost to the Chiefs last year, when a lot of ‘unusual’ things happened in that game. If they play a cleaner game today, I expect the results to be different. Titans win this one and +3 just adds additional value.
Baltimore Ravens -1
Like I’ve mentioned in my NFL Preview post, Baltimore was laying -2 at home against Cincy last year. An improved squad this season, they’re only laying -1 this time around. I like the value we are getting with the home team. AFC North battles tend to be close hard-fought contests, with home teams often pulling out wins, while losing on the road in the rematches. Baltimore is the home team today and I think we’ll see an improved team from last year, especially on the offensive end where Kubiak took over. Expect a close game between two teams that are very familiar with one another, with home team having the edge late.
Teaser (6.5 pts): Pittsburgh Steelers +1 / St Louis Rams +4
I’ve broken both teams down here NFL Preview, so you can read that over if you wish, but the key to this play is that I believe there’s too much value on the Rams. They were listed at -6 earlier in the summer, dropped to -3.5 after Bradford injury and are now at -2.5. That’s a 3.5-point swing pretty much due to Bradford getting injured. Too big of a swing, as Bradford is as mediocre QB as you get in this league. By teasing this even further, we go from Rams -6 to Rams +4 today, a 10-point difference. That’s a lot of pure value that I can’t pass up.
As far as Steelers go, they will have a huge advantage on the offensive end in this one. They are also at home, and I’ve described earlier that home teams in AFC North tend to be very competitive. Finally, Roethlisberger is 9-0 in his career against the Browns while playing at home. I fully expect him to be 10-0 after this game.
Teaser (6.5 pts): Pittsburgh Steelers +1 / Denver Broncos -1
Sorry to keep bringing this up, but all the relevant analysis is in here for this Denver/Colts game: NFL Preview. Basically the idea was that Denver was playing ‘out of their element’ in last year’s meeting @ Indianapolis and they made too many mental mistakes there. Plus Mathis was an absolute terror on the defensive end which caused major problems for Manning and Co. Well, Manning will get his left-tackle back this season, Mathis is suspended for this one, and now the game is in Denver. I expect a much different result in this one. At -6.5 I’d play Denver all day, and maybe even at -7. But the spread shifted a bit so I’ll simply teaser the Broncos down.
OC Dooley
Bengals / Ravens Under 43½
One of the keys to this total surrounds the offseason controversy involving Baltimore star running back Ray Rice who is suspended for this contest. In addition both offenses are adjusting to brand new coordinators which will ultimately slow their progression. With Jay Gruden now employed as a head coach the Bengals no longer have their long time offensive leader while the Ravens are now going with the schemes of ex-Texans head coach Gary Kubiak who has been “demoted” into the coordinator role. Most reading this analysis will remember when current Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis directed one of the NFL’s all-time best DEFENSES in what was a Baltimore Super Bowl campaign. The situation for the Baltimore stop-unit is radically different as opposed to a year ago at this time when they the “then” defending Super Bowl champs traveled to Denver and were shredded to the tune of 49 points in an ugly defeat. That week-one contest marked the first time the Ravens took the field WITHOUT the now retired defensive leader Ray Rice along with other key veterans. Basically the Ravens went from the Super Bowl to “out” of the playoffs due to defensive shortcomings and have had a full year to develop younger and more effective personnel