Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 8

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

LA Dodgers at Cincinnati
The Reds look to build on their 6-1 record in Homer Bailey's last 7 starts when the total is set at 7 to 8 1/2 runs. Cincinnati is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+115)

Game 901-902: Washington at Miami (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 16.274; Miami (Turner) 14.748
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-175); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-175); Under

Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at Cincinnati (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.630; Cincinnati (Bailey) 16.543
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+115); Over

Game 905-906: Atlanta at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Maholm) 14.633; Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.212
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-135); Under

Game 907-908: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.723; St. Louis (Wacha) 14.523
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+120); Over

Game 909-910: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.867; Cubs (Baker) 14.588
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130); N/A

Game 911-912: Arizona at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 15.644; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 14.764
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120); Over

Game 913-914: Colorado at San Diego (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Bettis) 15.722; San Diego (Kennedy) 14.603
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: San Diego (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+130); Over

Game 915-916: Chicago White Sox at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Rienzo) 15.536; Baltimore (Norris) 16.832
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-200); Under

Game 917-918: Detroit at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 16.875; Kansas City (Chen) 15.716
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-130); Over

Game 919-920: Toronto at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Rogers) 15.827; Minnesota (Albers) 14.397
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-110); Under

Game 921-922: Texas at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Tepesch) 14.855; LA Angels (Vargas) 16.372
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-115); Under

Game 923-924: Houston at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Clemens) 15.616; Oakland (Colon) 14.521
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-280); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+240); Over

Game 925-926: Tampa Bay at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 14.178; Seattle (Ramirez) 15.302
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+125); Over

Game 927-928: Boston at NY Yankees (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 14.514; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 15.660
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-110); Under

Game 929-930: NY Mets at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Matsuzaka) 14.478; Cleveland (Salazar) 16.362
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-240); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-240); Under

CFL

Saskatchewan at Winnipeg
The Roughriders look to build on their 9-2 ATS record in their last 11 games in September. Saskatchewan is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-8 1/2)

Game 495-496: Toronto at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 118.965; Montreal 111.156
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 8; 58
Vegas Line: Montreal by 3; 50
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+3); Over

Game 497-498: Saskatchewan at Winnipeg (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 117.227; Winnipeg 101.997
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 15 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 8 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-8 1/2); Under

WNBA

Phoenix at Atlanta
The Mercury look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games against a team with a winning SU record. Phoenix is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+5 1/2)

Game 601-602: Phoenix at Atlanta (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 112.262; Atlanta 112.712
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 166
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 160 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+5 1/2); Over

Game 603-604: Chicago at Washington (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 117.154; Washington 111.441
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 5 1/2; 148
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 153
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2 1/2); Under

Game 605-606: Tulsa at San Antonio (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 108.060; San Antonio 113.120
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 5; 142
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 1 1/2; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-1 1/2); Under

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Season win TotalFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Under 8 +116FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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If you shop around you will find some 8½’s out there but you’re going to have to lay -140 or so to play it under that number. That said, you might want to wait until very late in the pre-season to make this wager because Redskins coach Mike Shanahan hates to lose preseason games. The Redskins could easily turn up the heat and go 4-0 in the preseason and should that come to pass, you could get a better number. However, if Robert Griffin III happens to injure himself in the preseason, this number will drop dramatically. We choose to play it now because that leaves nothing to chance before the preseason.
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We’ll apply our buy low, sell high philosophy here. The Redskins won the division last season. They are high on most people’s radar and they have become a very sexy choice to make a deep run this season. RG3 made quite a splash in his rookie season. He certainly lived up to all the hype and there’s no question that he’s an impact player. However, we have concerns about his health and this number is based on RG3 being healthy. Running QB’s in this league rarely play 16 games. They are huge targets and an injury is inevitable. The Redskins rode the hype of RG3 last year and turned it into a terrific season but teams will be better prepped this season to face him and he’s not 100% yet. The Washington Redskins almost placed Robert Griffin III on the Physically Unable to Perform list when training camp began. They avoided that and Griffin did not participate in team drills at the start of camp and there is no timetable for that to happen. Griffin is expected take part in seven-on-seven drills and to throw to all of the receivers. Exactly one week ago on the 22nd of July, Griffin tweeted that doctors have cleared him to practice but the coaches will ease him in.
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We have to turn our attentions back to Mike Shanahan. Shanahan is unfit to coach in this league. Shanahan risked RGIII's career in an attempt to win a Wild Card game. Shanahan does not care about his players, they are a means to an end, and that end is Mike Shanahan's further employment. He has done more brow-beating and tearing down than any other coach. The man is unprofessional for calling out players in the media. This doesn't build repoire or team spirit, it tears down the locker room. Shanahan is a bad coach who got lucky he had Steve Young and John Elway to bail him out for his bad decisions in the past and RG3 last year. There were many close games his team should have won. Terrible fourth quarter play-calling, throwing players under the bus in public, creation of multiple scapegoats to shift criticism away from the coaching staff is nothing new for Shanahan. Owner Daniel Snyder and Mike Shanahan is the absolute worst owner/coach combo in professional football. Now in his second year, the players are not going to respond to his terrorism like they did a year ago.
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In terms of talent and outside of RG3, the Redskins lack talented players at the skilled positions. Let’s also not ignore that they gave up the right for a first round pick until 2015 when they acquired the rights to RGIII. Once again that was orchestrated by Shanahan, whose goal is not to win Super Bowls but to simply stay in charge of an NFL team by any means necessary. That means the Redskins roster will be filled with aging vets, castoffs and no impact rookies.
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The most serious issue, however, is the Redskins schedule. Winning the division a year ago has Washington playing other division winners. The Redskins play at Denver, at Green Bay and at Atlanta. They also have to play the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles twice each. In fact, aside from Oakland in Week 4, the ‘’Skins do not have an easy game the entire year. There is no Tennessee, Arizona, Jets, Brownies, or Jacksonville on the slate. Instead, the Redskins have to play San Fran, San Diego, Detroit, Chicago, San Diego, K.C., and Minnesota besides the aforementioned nine games. We’ve put their schedule in easy to read form here:
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Week 1 - Mon, Sep 9 Philadelphia
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Week 2 - Sun, Sep 15 @ Green Bay
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Week 3 - Sun, Sep 22 Detroit
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Week 4 - Sun, Sep 29 @ Oakland
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Week 5 - Bye
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Week 6 - Sun, Oct 13 @ Dallas**
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Week 7 - Sun, Oct 20 Chicago
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Week 8 - Sun, Oct 27 @ Denver
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Week 9 - Sun, Nov 3 San Diego
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Week 10 - Thu, Nov 7 @ Minnesota
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Week 11 - Sun, Nov 17 @ Philadelphia
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Week 12 - Mon, Nov 25 San Francisco
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Week 13 - Sun, Dec 1 NY Giants**
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Week 14 - Sun, Dec 8 Kansas City
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Week 15 - Sun, Dec 15 @ Atlanta
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Week 16 - Sun, Dec 22 Dallas
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Week 17 - Sun, Dec 29 @ NY Giants
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The two stars** denotes Sunday night, prime timers in which the ‘Skins have two of those. They also travel to Minnesota on three days’ rest on Thanksgiving Thursday on November 7, which means their November 3rd home game against the Chargers is in a “look ahead” spot. The ‘Skins also have two Monday night games, meaning almost a third of their games (5 in total) are prime time games. The Redskins close the season with games against Atlanta, Dallas and the Giants, meaning that Week 14 game against K.C is another “difficult” spot. This is one of the league’s toughest schedules.
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Can you see nine wins here? If things go swimmingly for the Redskins, they’ll be hard-pressed to win eight games. A couple of key injuries, the inevitable locker room tensions that accompany Shanahan wherever he goes and a lack of talent at the skilled positions will all contribute to this overvalued squad having a very mediocre year and certainly not nine wins.
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Pittsburgh Steelers Under 9 +110FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Steelers have not only been a perennial playoff team since 1970, they are also one of the most popular teams in the NFL because of their stability, outstanding pedigree and more playoff appearances and regular seasons wins than any other team over the past 43 years. Even today, a generation later, images endure of those great Steelers teams from the 1970s. Terry Bradshaw connecting with receivers Lynn Swann and John Stallworth. The Steel Curtain of Joe Greene, Ernie Holmes, Dwight White and L.C. Greenwood holding the high-powered Minnesota Vikings offense to 119 total yards in Super Bowl IX. Franco Harris making the “Immaculate Reception.” All those legendary players, plus more recent stars such as Jerome Bettis, Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu, deserve credit for the Steelers’ record six Super Bowl championships but so does the Rooney family, for creating one of the NFL’s model franchises. The best sign of that leadership is stability in the coaching ranks — the Steelers have had only three coaches, Chuck Noll, Bill Cowher and Mike Tomlin, since 1970 and that’s precisely where we will start.
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Art Rooney simply doesn’t have his dad’s touch. Much as Steelers fans loved the Chief, he didn’t have a green thumb for producing winning football teams. Dan was the magic for this franchise and although Art II has been running the team for years on paper, Dan was still overseeing the operation until he took the ambassadorship. Things have deteriorated since Art II has been completely in charge. Art II and Mike Tomlin have a knack for choosing players in the draft that are china dolls, ready to be broken. The Steelers offensive line is in serious trouble. Mike Adams is awful with no end in sight. Mike Pouncey is grossly overrated and Marcus Gilbert is overwhelmingly unremarkable. There’s no veteran depth there, either. Tomlin has dismantled a pretty good O-line. Max Starks starts in San Diego, Willie Colon starts with the Jets and Doug Legursky starts in Buffalo. Getting rid of seasoned veterans is never a good idea, at least not without having suitable replacements and without a strong O-Line, Ben Roethisberger turns into a mediocre QB at best. The Steelers defense may be decent but they will be on the field more than ever because of an offense that has very little. This team got old right before our eyes and the sad part is the Steelers didn’t do a great job of bringing in younger players. Pittsburgh has little team speed, no bruising running backs, a lack of talent in the receiving corps, where there just is no replacing Mike Wallace and again, a brutal offensive line. The Steelers are in a stronger division, top to bottom and their talent level has deteriorated.

Let’s keep in mind that the Steelers defense feasted two years in a row on some really bad teams. They had the easiest strength of schedule for any playoff team in 2011. The team lived an illusion in 2011 and the illusion became reality in 2012. In 2013, Pittsburgh is worse but their schedule is not. Looking over the Steelers schedule, we see two likely wins, in Week 6 against the Jets, although that game is in New York and in Week 10 at home against the Bills. Other than that, there are no gimmes. The last seven games of the season see the Steelers playing Detroit, at Cleveland, at Baltimore, Miami, Cincinnati, at Green Bay and finally closing out the season at home versus the Brownies. The first four games see the Steelers playing Tennessee, at Cincinnati, Chicago and at Minnesota. Pittsburgh will not win all of those, that’s for certain and it would not surprise one bit to see them get off to a 1-3 start or even a 0-4 start. Additionally, this is all predicated on a healthy roster but these aging players will not play 16 games, as Troy Polamalu and Big Ben get injured every season for a number of games. It says here that the Steelers have little to no chance of winning 10 games and going over this number. We’re suggesting that the Steelers end up going 6-10, 7-9 or 8-8 because this team in in total decay but the number does not reflect that. Pittsburgh’s pedigree and popularity has this total at nine. Its talent level should have it at 7 and that allows us to take full advantage of a bad number.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. NY JetsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Do not get hung up on a 7-9 club laying points on the road. The Buccaneers play in a very strong division and are an improved team with a healthy offensive and defensive line, something they didn't have last year.
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Much like the starting pitcher in baseball, quarterback means nearly everything in football. The Jets don't have an NFL starting caliber quarterback. Their wide receivers are well below average and their ground game lacks depth and any kind of star runner. Their defense has regressed.
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The Jets aren't going to be able to stay within a field goal of Tampa Bay. Mark Sanchez isn't likely to play because of a shoulder injury. That means rookie Geno Smith probably is going to start. He's not nearly ready yet to be first-string. Sanchez committed a combined 52 turnovers during the last two years. No quarterback has a higher total during the past two seasons.
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Tampa Bay was No. 1 against the run last year. The Buccaneers' weakness last year was pass defense caused by an anemic pass rush. Both of those areas have been shored up with the return to health of Tampa Bay's top pass rushing defensive ends and the addition of cornerback Darrelle Revis and safety Dashon Goldson.
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The Buccaneers are a legitimate playoff threat. Greg Schiano restored discipline and toughness during his first season last year after the Buccaneers shamelessly quit on Raheem Morris.
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Tampa Bay could have the deepest offensive line in football. Josh Freeman ranked in the top 10 in passing yards and is in a contract year. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson and running back Doug Martin are among the elite at their respective positions.
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Right now the Buccaneers are floating under-the-radar while the Jets have big problems. I don't see Rex Ryan surviving this season.
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The time to play on the Buccaneers is now. I'm putting this game out more than a week ahead of time in order to still be able to lay three. This line is going to go up. So if you like the Buccaneers, get down now.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. NY JetsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Thanks to the preseason shoulder injury of NY Jets QB Sanchez the Jets will be starting Geno Smith who looked inaccurate and erratic in exhibition play. The Jets offense was atrocious last year( 30# in offensive efficiency), and there just were not enough upgrades to justify hope for this season in my humble opinion. The D also took a hit, as they lost star Darrelle Revis via trade, which will slow their ability to hold off offenses with passing prowess . Dont get me wrong the Jets young D, will eventually jell, but for now its a work in progress for this talented group. Meanwhile, Tampa Bays QB Josh Freeman comes off a 27 TD season, and looks to once again to be dangerous via play action, because of the emergence of RB Doug Martin (4.6 YPC, 12 TDs). The Bucs defense is hard to run against even without ( Bennett and Miller) and with their pass D upgraded(Revis), the Jets inconsistent pass offense should not do serious damage, which is not a good omen for the Jets chances here on opening day. Its interesting to note that the Bucs have covered 19 of their L/26 road games for a powerful 73% conversion rate!

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Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis RamsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Arizona Cardinals +4.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona lost both games LY to Saint Louis but will look for an increase in offensive production TY with Carson Palmer and Rashard Mendenhall to bolster the offense. That is a pretty solid upgrade, and no one should be happier than Larry Fitzgerald (except maybe those who had Fitz in fantasy leagues), as he can again be the dominating player he has been in the past. The Cards spent their first round pick trying to help keep Palmer upright and did well with Tar Heel Jonathan Cooper. He is an instant upgrade. Arizona also got a Bayou Bengal for their 3rd pick, tabbing the Honey Badger Tyrann Mathieu. IF they can get him straightened out this will be a high value selection, as the combo of he and Patrick Peterson together is impressive. We also think Arizona got two potential steals in DE Alex Okafor (4th round) and RB Stephan Taylor (6th round) , and we think each will make an impact on this team. For Saint Louis, Bradford turns the ball over as often as he scores. They lose TE/KR Danny Amendola (NE) and RB Steven Jackson (ATL). Amendola and Jackson accounted for 38% of St. Louis's offensive yardage last season. St. Louis has some of the shortest DB's in the league. Against inexperienced QB's last season - Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Ryan Lindley, Colin Kaepernick - St. Louis was 4-2 SU; 6-0 ATS. Against the rest of their opponents, with experienced QB's able to exploit their DB's, St. Louis was 3-6-1 SU; 5-5 ATS. New DC Tim Walton is a rookie coordinator and we like Arizona to cover the spread today, easily. Saint Louis is 0-4 as a HF the L4 years and they should be 0-5 after today.

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Patriots vs. BillsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 51FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The visiting Patriot’s offense comes into Sunday’s opener versus the Bills with a lot of question marks. Gone are Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd. Rob Gronkowski is questionable but it looks as if he won’t be ready to go in this game. Tom Brady is a year older and will have challenges with rookie receivers all over the place. The team is geared to run the ball though with emerging rushers in Stevan Ridley and Shane Vareen. Everyone forgets that the Patriots were seventh in the league in rushing last year and I expect that trend to continue this year. The Patriots defense meanwhile has been young for a few seasons now but is gradually growing up. The strength of this team may be the running game and defense like the old days. The Bills fired Chan Gailey after three losing seasons and will look to get the season started off right with first year head coach Doug Marrone. The Bills allowed more than 400 yards in a game eight times last year and you have to think that was a point of emphasis in the offseason. E. J Manuel looks like he is going to get forced into starting week 1 with Kevin Kolbs’s injury in the preseason. The Bills are firstly a rushing team with C.J Spiller and Fred Jackson. I expect a ground and pound type game to protect Manuel in the first game. The Bills may be the underdog here but are at home and are likely to step it up. The Pats are the better team on paper so it will go to no surprise if they win. I expect both offenses to sputter a little bit here in the first game. Take a strong look at the “under” as the number is high.

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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit LionsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Minnesota Vikings +5.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seems as though there are lots of pundits high on the Lions this season and the Sharps also think they will be improved…which isn’t saying much. There are a couple of interesting storylines in this game, most notably if the Vikings secondary can matchup with the Lions elite WR corps, headlined by Calvin Johnson. We look for Stafford to have a good day and the Lions to put up some points, but also think that Adrian Peterson has something to prove in his encore from last year. That should create a better ball control offense for the Vikings, who may be able to open up some play action game to take advantage of new target Greg Jennings. We think the Lions win the game, but the Vikings are going to keep it close.

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Atlanta +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta + the 3 will not be the popular side here on the 1st Sunday of the Season. Believe me boys popular does not cash tickets. Initially I lined up on the Saints but the more I looked into this game my #'s are true to the Falcons. Sunday. How can you not back the New Orleans Saints as Sean Peyton is back....???? I will tell you how.. these Saints do not play D lead by Rob Ryan... that's how. The Saints do not match up well with the Falcons as the Falcons attack the outside of the Offense. These Falcons bring the heat on the QB. Power Rated @ the Saints - .43 points. Matt Ryan to RB Steven Jackson all day long!!!

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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7 Point Teaser: Buffalo & OverFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Patriots came into Buffalo last September and ran roughshod over the Bills. New England gained 247 yards on the ground, and the defense picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick four times.
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It was a different story when these teams met again in November, as New England barely held on to win 37-31 at Foxboro. It was the Bills running game that stole the show, and C.J. Spiller ran for 70 yards on just nine carries, averaging almost eight yards per carry.
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Spiller finished the season tied with Adrian Peterson with an average of six yards per carry, yet he split the workload with Fred Jackson. Doug Marrone has said he intends increase Spiller's workload in 2013, and this should bode well for Buffalo.
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The Patriots come in as a double-digit road favorite in Week 1, despite the fact that they lost Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth and Deion Branch. Rob Gronkowski is still recovering from off-season surgery, and that leaves Danny Amendola the only notable target for Tom Brady.
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While New England appears to be more vulnerable than ever, the Bills look to be a team on the rise. Buffalo fans got some good news on Wednesday, as Marrone announced that rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel will be healthy enough to start in Week 1.
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He completed 26-of-33 passes for 199 yards and two scores, without any interceptions during the pre-season. He should bring a lot more to the table than Fitzpatrick who he's replacing.
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We saw a couple wild, high scoring games between these two teams last year, and I am expecting a similar result here. I like the Bills to keep it close though, and don't be surprised if Buffalo shocks the Patriots and records an upset.
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Take Buffalo + OVER.

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Falcons vs. SaintsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 54FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These 2 teams can put of the points. They have tons of play makers on the Offensive side of the ball, and both of these teams defenses are nothing to write home about. Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan have a ton of weapons to throw to. Atlanta has probably the best receiving core in the NFL in Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. Drew Brees has Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, and Lance Moore. Look for the final to be in the 60's and take the over.

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Kansas City at JacksonvilleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Jacksonville +4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In my ESPN podcast in July I identified the Jaguars as a great bet-on team this season. In a nutshell, I feel that this team will have line value all season long. Exhibit A is this weekend where they are getting 4 points at home to a team that won only two games last season! Kansas City has a lot to be hopeful for with Andy Reid and a new quarterback taking over. Reid's West Coast offense has potential but with current personnel, is that really a good fit? The most dangerous weapon for the Chiefs is Jamaal Charles and that means they are going to run a lot to have a chance to be effective. To make matters worse, right now Charles has a strained foot, but will play. Alex Smith will take over at QB, and while he was respectable in San Francisco, the personnel he had to work with there was a whole lot better than what he will have in KC. A healthy Maurice Jones-Drew will impact the Jacksonville offense, as he sat out most of last year with an injury, and he is a difference maker. The solid running game, and the Chiefs' lack of pressure (five sacks from D-line a year ago), and just 13 takeaways could offer some openings for Blaine Gabbert who while not great, is underrated. The Jags defense has been upgraded with five free-agent signings on the defensive end. This team has made a habit of coming out prepared, going 12-2 ATS in their last 14 season openers. In what looks like a toss-up game to me, the points are crucial here for the home dog. Take Jacksonville.

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Tampa Bay vs. New YorkFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New YorkFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Everyone is pretty down on the Jets, entering the season.
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Throw in the fact that Geno Smith is expected to get the start and we've seen the line climb from its opener.
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I believe that's created value with the Jets.
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True, the Jets have some issues. Smith is making his debut. Revis is back against his former team etc
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However, winning on the road is rarely easy and I'm not sold on Tampa yet. Not enough to ask them to lay more than a field goal away from home, at least.
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Keep in mind that the Bucs are only 11-21 SU the past couple of season, including 5-11 away from home. During that span, they were 3-6 ATS (4-5 SU) when laying points.
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Ryan said this about Smith starting: "We realize that a rookie quarterback and all that, that's certainly a challenge. I think our guys are ready to rally behind Geno, and the big thing we've told Geno is, 'You just have to be part of the solution.'"
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Don't be surprised when the Jets do indeed rally around their rookie QB, en route to at least a cover. Consider New York.

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New England (-9.5) over BuffaloFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Tom Brady is coming into this contest with a chip on his shoulder. That does not spell success for the Bills. Everyone around the water cooler is saying that Brady is going to have a down year since he lost all of his weapons; everyone does not include this guy. Brady is the type of player that loves to showcase his skills when you least expect it. Brady is an all-time great, and he will prove it this season, starting with this game. I would not be surprised to see the Pats win this one by nearly 30 points. New England is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games and 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 meetings with the Buffalo Bills. If that isn't enough for you try this one for size; New England is 8-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Buffalo, the favorite is 20-7-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings between the two, and the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Lay the big number on the road team in this opening weekend matchup. This game has 41-10 written all over it.

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Miami vs. ClevelandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I think we're going to see a pair of struggling offenses on the first Sunday of the NFL season when the Cleveland Browns host the Miami Dolphins. To me these teams are quite similar, right down to their second-year starting quarterbacks out of the Big 12. There is a lack of talent on both offenses at the skill positions & two solid defenses.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1. Two Strong Defenses - There is a lot of talent in this side of the ball for both teams. Cleveland brings in a new defensive coordinator in the well-regarded Ray Horton, who comes over from Arizona. As was the case with the Cardinals, Horton's defense is going to need to carry a week offense here. The front seven he inherits in Cleveland is quite strong and the secondary is anchored by former #1 draft choice Joe Haden. For Miami, they bolstered an already pretty strong defense with the offseason additions of CB Brent Grimes, LB's Danelle Ellerbe and Phillip Wheeler and trading up to select Dion Jordan out of Oregon with the 3rd overall pick in the draft.
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2. Recent Trends - Miami is 22-9-1 Under in all games the previous two seasons. Cleveland is 21-10-1.
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3. X-Factor - For a pair of offenses that each averaged less than 19 points/game last season, its definitely not a good thing to be missing one of your top pass catchers. For Cleveland, they will be without suspended receiver Josh Gordon (drug violation) for the first two games while Miami has lost TE Dustin Keller for the entire season to an ACL.